BurmaNet News: December 25-26, 2003

[editor at burmanet.org]

December 25-26, 2003, Issue #2395

INSIDE BURMA
AP: Burma starts re-writing Constitution ‘on road to democracy’
DVB: KNU accuses SPDC of breaking verbal ceasefire agreement
Myanmar Times: Govt praises Thai initiative in hosting Bangkok forum
AFP: Suu Kyi property suit delayed again by Myanmar court

REGIONAL
Mizzima: Expectation raised from Burma and Bangladesh to drive out Indian
insurgents
Kosajan: Thai Government Denies Sidelining UN Role in Handling Burmese
Refugees
The Nation: Thai-funded hospital set to open in Burma
Bangkok Post: PM's helicopter `was at risk'

OPINION/OTHER
Scripps Howard News Service: 2003 saw fall of two of world's 10 worst
dictators
The Nation: Government needs to wake up to reality
AFP: Democracy hopes for Myanmar dashed, then revived in 2003
The Irrawaddy: The Winner Will Be Cursed

INSIDE BURMA
___________________________________


Associated Press, December 26, 2003
Burma starts re-writing Constitution ‘on road to democracy’

Burma’s military junta is claiming more internal support for its so-called
"roadmap" to democracy, saying an ethnic militia group has endorsed its
plan to rewrite the Constitution, state media reported on Friday.
The Myanma Ahlin newspaper said the Kayan New Land Party declared its
backing when its deputy chairman Than Soe Naing met Prime Minister Gen.
Khin Nyunt at a defence ministry guesthouse in the capital Rangoon on
Thursday.
The group, the third militia to support the government’s proposals, will
assign a delegate to the national convention that is to draft a new
Constitution probably next year.
In August, Gen. Khin Nyunt announced a seven-point roadmap that he claims
will lead to free elections and a new government, but gave no details or
timeframe. The convening of the national convention — suspended in 1996 —
has been touted as the first step.
The Kayan New Land Party is among four ethnic militias in Burma’s eastern
Kayah state. It signed a ceasefire agreement with the junta in 1994.
The military regime earlier announced that two ethnic Kachin groups had
lodged support for the roadmap and the national convention. Seventeen
armed rebel groups signed peace deals with the junta between 1989 and
1997.
The government organised a national convention in 1993, but it was
suspended in 1996 after the Opposition National League for Democracywalked
out saying it was being forced to rubber stamp decisions made by the
junta. It is unclear if the NLD or other political parties will
participate in the convention.

___________________________________

Democratic Voice of Burma, December 26, 2003
KNU accuses SPDC of breaking verbal ceasefire agreement

The Karen New Year Day celebration held at Kawkareik Township in Karen
State, with security provided by the members of KNU (Karen National Union)
6th Brigade, was ruined when the SPDC (State Peace and Development
Council) army launched light and heavy artillery shells at the celebration
area.
The attack occurred on 22 December where the Karen New Year Day ceremony
was to be held and attended by 40,000 at Waw Dan Village on the bank of
Aung Tharaw River about 10 miles from Kawkareik and the ceremony planned
for the 23 December was cancelled.
A KNU commander said two schools combined to celebrate Karen New Year's
Eve ceremony marking the harvesting of a new crop when they were attacked.
The KNU fighetrs were nearby providing security and told people to stay
calm and systematically disperse the crowd and no one was injured.
The Karen New Year has become a popular festival and it is gaining a huge
support from the local Karen people and the people's participation has
also increased.
The SPDC troops also attacked the KNU fighters in regions along the
Thai-Burma border. Villages were burnt to the ground and newly-harvested
paddy crops were torched in the 2nd & 6th Brigade regions.
The SPDC troops, posing themselves as army deserters, came and attacked
the KNU 7th Brigade that was responsible for security duty at the Karen
New Year Day ceremony held on 23rd December where Gen Saw Bo Mya himself
attended. Two SPDC soldiers were killed.
A KUN Commander Maj Nerdah Mya said that the Karen fighters are upset by
unprovoked attacks but, ‘We are staying cool’, he insisted.

___________________________________

Myanmar Times, December 22-28, 2003
Govt praises Thai initiative in hosting Bangkok forum
By Thet Khaing

THE Foreign Minister, U Win Aung, has praised Thailand for its initiative
in hosting a multilateral forum earlier this month that enabled Myanmar to
outline its roadmap for a transition to democracy.

U Win Aung said Myanmar was grateful for the roles played by Thailand’s
Prime Minister, Mr Thaksin Shinawatra, and Foreign Minister, Mr Surakiart
Sathirathai, in initiating the half-day forum held in Bangkok on December
15.

“We can at least explain to the international community what we are doing
and what our plan is for the future, that is the most important part of my
attendance at the forum” U Win Aung told Myanmar Times last Wednesday.
In his presentation at the forum, U Win Aung outlined the seven-point
roadmap that was unveiled by the Prime Minister, General Khin Nyunt, on
August 30.

He said the presentation had referred to a series of meetings between
General Khin Nyunt and representatives of national races and armed groups
in recent weeks to discuss their participation in a National Convention to
draft a new constitution.

“We hope that would pave a way for peace and stability of the country and
(an understanding) on how we could work together,” U Win Aung said.

The reconvening of the National Convention is the first step in the
roadmap, that also provides for a referendum on a constitution and the
holding of fair elections.

Apart from U Win Aung and Mr Surakiart, the forum brought together
representatives of Australia, Austria, China, Japan, Italy – the current
chair of the European Union – India, France, Germany, Singapore and
Indonesia – the current chair of the Association of Southeast Asia
Nations. The meeting was also attended by the United Nations special envoy
to Myanmar, Mr Razali Ismail.

Speaking at a media conference after the talks, Mr Surakiart said the
forum, dubbed the ‘Bangkok Process’, would convene again soon although no
date had been set.

Mr Surakiart said U Win Aung told the forum that eight categories of
delegates would be invited to participate in the National Convention, such
as representatives of national races and members of political parties.

Mr Surakiart suggested that the Myanmar leadership wanted a constitution
drafted and a referendum held next year, Reuters new sagency reported.

“I was glad to hear Win Aung telling the meeting that 2004 will be a very
busy year,” Reuters quoted Mr Surakiart as saying.

In a related development, the government has dismissed comments made by
the United States in the aftermath of the Bangkok forum.

The US State Department spokesperson, Mr Richard Boucher, said on December
16 that Myanmar needed to take concrete steps towards democracy, rather
than making promises.

Mr Boucher said Washington wanted to see the kind of action that would
demonstrate that political parties and ethnic minorities would be allowed
to become involved in deciding Myanmar’s future.

A government statement released the next day described the comments as
“erroneous.”

“Mr Boucher appears unaware that there have been extremely positive
developments in all those areas in recent months,” the statement said.
“Mere criticism, especially criticism which ignores the facts, is not
helpful,” it said.

“As the United States is learning in Iraq and Afghanistan, making
transition to democracy is not a simple, quick or easy task,” the
statement said.

It said the implementation of the roadmap was progressing at “a steady
pace”, with the National Convention set to reconvene next year.

“Hundreds of people detained on national security grounds have been
released, and political parties are resuming their activities,” the
statement said, referring to release of about 600 detainees during the
past three years.

It said support for the National Convention was strong in Myanmar and in
the region.

There was even support among groups which opposed the government, the
statement said, citing a positive reaction to the decision to reconvene
the National Convention from a Washington-based group, the Free Burma
Coalition.

The statement urged the United States to adopt “a pragmatic and helpful
approach to Myanmar, as we progress along our roadmap to democracy.

___________________________________

Agence France Presse, December 26, 2003
Suu Kyi property suit delayed again by Myanmar court

A Yangon court Friday again postponed a property suit brought against
democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi by her brother Aung San Oo, who is
fighting for partial control of her lakeside residence where she is
detained, diplomats said.

Proceedings in the case brought by the US businessman, who is seeking to
administer half of the house that belonged to their late mother, have been
pushed back to February 26 because the Nobel peace laureate was unable to
meet with her counsel, the lawyer told a diplomat.

"The hearing has been postponed to February 26th because Aung San Suu
Kyi's lawyer was not allowed to see her," the diplomat told AFP about the
decision in Yangon Division court.

Aung San Oo is fighting for "administration" of half of the famed residence.

The drawn-out case has seen him make two bids to evict his sister from the
house, where she has been confined by the country's ruling generals since
September after she was detained in a May 30 attack on her and her
supporters by a junta-backed mob.

The first attempt for half ownership was dismissed on a technicality in
January 2001. Aung San Suu Kyi's lawyers had argued that Aung San Oo had
no right to apply for his sister to be evicted because, as a foreigner
living in the United States, he had no right to own property in Myanmar.

Lawyers on both sides revised their original arguments and the case
returned to the courts but has been postponed at least twice more.

If he wins the case, Aung San Oo is expected to turn his share of the
house over to the government, a result which would put his sister in an
extremely precarious position.

The 58-year-old democracy champion heads the National League for Democracy
(NLD), which won a landslide election victory in 1990 but was never
allowed to assume power.


REGIONAL
___________________________________

Mizzima, December 26, 2003
Expectation raised from Burma and Bangladesh to drive out Indian insurgents
By Nava Thakuria

Bhutan has shown the courage to fight against the anti-India insurgents
from its soil. The tiny Himalayan kingdom had launched army operation to
flush out armed cadres of United Liberation Front of Assam  (ULFA),
National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB) and Kamatapur  Liberation
Organisation (KLO) on December 15. The operation with logistic supports
from India witnessed 6000 Royal Bhutan Army got involved which primarily
took place in the southern Bhutan to recover the areas from the
insurgents. Now expectations are being raised from Burma and Bangladesh.

Burma, while assured India to support in flushing out anti-India
insurgents "if any" from their land, Bangladesh is yet to admit the
presumption about the presence of North East militants in their soil.

Burmese military government, in recent years, raided the training camps of
the National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Khaplang (NSCN-K) located
inside Burmese territory. It is reportedly cooperating with the Indian
armed forces to crack down the anti-India insurgents along the Indo Burma
border.

During his recent meeting in New Delhi on December 23, Burmese foreign
minister U Win Aung has assured his Indian counterpart Mr. Yashwant Sinha
that Burma will not allow militants from Bhutan to enter its soil. "We
will flush out Indian insurgent camps, if any in ourcountry," U Win Aung
told reporters in New Delhi.

In December 2001, the Burmese army raided several hideouts of the United
National Liberation Front (UNLF), spreading over Burma's Tamu and Kalaymyo
near Indian border and arrested senior leaders of the outfit besides
recovering of a huge cache of arms and ammunition.

However, after some months in detention, these UNLF insurgent leaders were
released by the Burmese government, despite repeated requests by the
Indian authorities for their extradition.

For Bhutan the first-ever military offensive to chase away the armed
cadres of the secessionist outfits was "very very" important, which can be
guessed from the active initiative by none other than the King Jigme
Singye Wangchuk. "Our honorable King Wangchuk had personally led the
operation to smash around 30 camps of ULFA, NDFB and KLO. With the
strength of 3000 rebels inside our territory, the militants were carrying
out hit-and-run strikes in Indian territory from their bases in Bhutan for
the last few years," told Bhutan's foreign secretary Neten Zangmo.

In the first 10 days of operation the causalities in both sides mounted up
to 150.  Speaking to media persons, the director of Bhutanese Foreign
Ministry, who was temporarily based in the southern Bhutan district of
Samdrup Jongkhar, Mr. Yashey Dorji claimed that RBA had seized both ULFA's
central command and general headquarters and smashed all 30 camps inside
Bhutan.  Moreover they had captured a number of militant leaders, many of
who surrendered to Bhutanese troops. But surprisingly Yashey Dorji had no
convincing information regarding the captured militants and also
causalities. There are contradictory claim by both sides regarding the
capture of militant leaders.  While Bhutan authorities claimed that they
had captured some high profile leaders of ULFA like Drishti Rajkhowa,
Benning Rabha, Biju Deka, the ULFA military chief Paresh Barua denied
their arrest.

The problem of taking shelter by anti-Indian insurgents in Bhutan is over
12 years old problem. The Royal government had arranged a series of
discussion with the militants in last six years. But finally they decided
to go for army action. In fact, the time selected for the operation was
really favourable for the kingdom. Bhutan started theassault while the
world media was focusing on the fate of the deposed Iraqi president Saddam
Hussein. After the most sought after fugitive of Washington was captured
on Saturday (December 13), the world media had started focusing
exclusively on Saddam. Royal Bhutan Army launched the operation on Monday,
though reportedly Bhutanese King Wangchuk made a final deadline on
December 31, 2003 to the Indian underground to leave their soil. But the
Himalayan kingdom did not want to wait for the deadline and suddenly
preponed the attacks.

Facing the heat of sudden attack, ULFA chairman Arabinda Rajkhowa appealed
the King, Royal Government and people of Bhutan to stop the operation. The
appeal, which was aired through the Internet, termed the massive army
operation as illegal. It also cautioned Bhutan not to get trapped into any
"conspiracy" by India and "abstain herself from being a hand of Indian
military" in the way of taking innocent lives noncombatant women and
children. But Bhutan had rejected the ceasefire appeal. Reacting to the
rejection, ULFA chief of the army staff Mr Barua threatened to attack on
the Bhutanese population in North East India.

Bhutan, which is a landlocked kingdom, China on its north, Nepal on west
and India on both south and east is primarily dependent on India in
various aspects. The habitants in the southern parts of Bhutan have
day-to-day business relation with the bordering Indian villages of West
Bengal and Assam.

"One may guess that Bhutan had to address the problem today of tomorrow,
but they preferred time period to launch the operation is significant.
Bhutan preponed the attack on the insurgents to take the advantage of the
situation, where the national and international media being preoccupied
with the fate of Iraqi dictator Saddam in hands of America and thus
avoiding prompt international reaction," told A. Bhattacharya, a senior
student leader based in Guwahati. But the insurgents had also left no
stone unturned to play the emotional cards against Bhutan.  Protesting
against the on-going brutal attack and killing of the Bhutan based cadres,
particularly non-rebel women and children, the ULFA, NDFB and KLO called
48 hours Assam, Bodoland and Kamatapur (north Bengal) bandh starting from
5 a.m. on December 20, 2003.

In a statement, issued by Rubi Bhuyan, Central Publicity member of ULFA
claimed that Bhim Buragohain declared himself as "Horse de Combat"
hoisting white flag and leading women, children and war wounded for safe
passage, but he was killed by RBA only violate Geneva Convention as well
as all civilized norms of modern war. In the meantime, ULFA chairman
Arabinda Rajkhowa appealed to the Bhutan king to hand over the dead body
of Bhim Buragohain to his bereaved family on humanitarian ground.

Manipulating the issue emotionally, ULFA chairman not only demanded the
body of seventy-crossed Bhim Buragohain, but also managed moral supports
from different insurgent outfits in North East India.

It may be mentioned that Bhim Buragohain, popularly known as Mama was the
"think tank" of ULFA and he was one of the founder eight members of ULFA,
which is fighting for an Independent Assam since 1979. Bachelor till his
death Buragohain was also an accomplished painter and sculptor who learned
about visual arts at Santiniketan in West Bengal. So while ULFA, NDFB and
KLO imposed the bandh on December 20, 21 in protest against the killing of
Buragohain, NSCN (IM) was first to react with solidarity. The oldest
insurgent group in North East India, now going through the negotiation
process with the government of India had called for Nagalim bandh on
December 21. At the same time Manipur People's Liberation Front (MPLF),
which is the umbrella organization of three banned outfits namely United
National Liberation Front (UNLF), People's Revolutionary Party of
Kangleipak (Prepak) and Revolutionary People's Front (RPF) called a
dawn-to-dusk general strike in Manipur on December 23. Kuki National Front
(KNF) and National Liberation Front of Twipra (NLFT) had also extended
support to the move. Even Amsterdam-based Naga International Support
Center (NISC) had also appealed Bhutan to ensure the safety of women and
children.

At the same time, taking the advantage of insufficient or no information
(even Bhutan's official website www.kuenselonline.com was not updated
regularly with information) by the Bhutanese authority from the conflict
zone, ULFA started taking advantages of the situation. ULFA chief Rajkhowa
pointed out the preventive measures taken by Bhutan for the media and also
International Red Cross Society (IRCS) workers in war zone. It may be
mentioned that ULFA leader Barua appealed for IRCS help inside Bhutan,
which was later rejected by Bhutan authority. So promptly Mr Rajkhowa
alleged that severe human right violation was going on inside Bhutan in
the name of flushing out operation. He challenged Bhutan government to
allow media (also ICRS) personalities to go inside for taking stock of the
situation and necessary action.

Even captured ULFA publicity secretary Mithinga Daimari also supported the
allegation of Rajkhowa. Before producing to the Chief Judicial Magistrate
at Nalbari in lower Assam, Mithinga alleged that RBA personnel misbehaved
with the women cadres of the ULFA and also tortured the children inmates. 
Of course, in the meantime, Bhutan handed over 64 numbers of women and
children to Indian civil administration on December 24. Tamulpur Circle
officer M. Medhi officially received them. But the sound of protest
against the killing of non-rebel women and children in Bhutan became loud
and clear from different sections in the society.

Though Assam chief minister Tarun Gogoi promptly welcomed the operation by
Bhutan, he had to bow down the public outrage. Replying to the opposition
members in state legislative assembly recently the Congress leader told
that the government had taken the issue with top Army officials and also
the union government of India.  All Assam Lawyers' Association, Northeast
Students' Organisation and Manab Adhikar Sangram Samiti (MASS) had
appealed to put an end to Bhutan action and initiate peace talks at the
earliest. MASS had also demonstrated against Bhutan action and organized a
protest rally in Guwahati.

New Delhi based Jnanpith winner Assamese writer Dr Indira Goswami had come
forward to appeal the Prime Minister AB Vajpayee to initiate talks with
the ultras. The list of intellectuals and writers, who had written to the
prime minister and also the president of India APJ Abdul Kalam started
elongating.

At least 25 social activists and  journalists had faxed to both PM and
President to take immediate initiate to stop the unwanted killing of women
and children in Bhutan in the name of flushing out of insurgents.
___________________________________

Kosajan, December 25, 2003
Thai Government Denies Sidelining UN Role in Handling Burmese Refugees

The government yesterday dismissed suggestions that it wants to sideline
the role of the United Nations in handling Burmese refugees, saying it
would continue the cooperation on a basis of "equal partnership".

Government spokesman Jakrapob Penkair said that the Interior Ministry's
office of policy coordination on refugees would seek funding from the
Finance Ministry, not the UN High Commissioner on Refugees (UNHCR), for
processing Burmese refugees.

Decades of fighting inside Burma have forced more than 100,000 villagers
to flee their homes for the scores of makeshift camps along the
Thai-Burmese border. Jakrapob's statement came after Prime Minister
Thaksin Shinawatra rejected a proposal from the Interior Ministry to ask
the UNHCR for 4m baht to help Burmese refugees.

The government and the UNHCR have clashed this year over the commission's
decision to grant "Persons of Concern" status to Burmese political-asylum
seekers without informing Bangkok.

A senior Thai official working in the foreign-aid field said that the
government's reluctance to accept UNHCR funds sprang from its aversion to
the conditions attached to it, such as how the Thai government should
treat refugees.

A military source, on the other hand, said the army had never been
comfortable with the presence of the UN agency along the border, which it
considers to be its turf.

The Interior Ministry's funding request to the UN agency has long been
considered routine.

The UNCHR's 4m baht would have paid for such activities such as
registration and documentation.

"This does not mean that Thailand will cease to cooperate with
international agencies, but we will continue to do so on a basis of 'equal
partnership'," Thaksin told reporters yesterday.

Jakrapob told The Nation, "Declining to receive funding is meant to
express Thailand's readiness to take care of refugees in the country."

___________________________________

The Nation, December 25, 2003
Thai-funded hospital set to open in Burma

It's a drop in the ocean, but the government is pushing ahead with its
controversial crop-substitution project in an area controlled by the
United Wa State Army (UWSA), which Washington calls the world's largest
armed drug-trafficking army.

Third Army commander Lt General Picharnmate Muangmanee will tomorrow
attend the opening of a Thai-financed hospital in Mong Yawn, an area
believed to be the source of the millions of methamphetamine tablets
flooding the Kingdom each week.

The hospital is part of a pilot project financed by Bt20 million in Thai
grants to Burma aimed at reducing dependency on opium cultivation in Mong
Yawn.

The overall Yong Kha project is expected to cost well over Bt130 million,
but additional foreign aid is unlikely because of international sanctions
against the Burmese government.

The project includes the hospital, which attracted media attention after
Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra cancelled a trip to Mong Yawn to open
it, citing security concerns.

Burmese Prime Minister General Khin Nyunt had also planned to attend the
opening.

The Yong Kha project is to be modelled after Thailand's Doi Tung
Development Programme in Chiang Rai's Mae Fah Luang district.

Doi Tung has often been promoted as a showcase for weaning locals away
from an opium economy.

Yong Kha would try to encourage people in Mong Yawn to grow coffee,
soybeans and macadamias.

But observers say Thailand's effort to stem the flow of drugs from the
area is merely a political gesture that will have little effect because of
the magnitude of Burma's opium politics and its history of
insurgencies.</P>The Mae Fah Luang Foundation disclosed that it was also
planning to extend its operations to Afghanistan, another war-ravaged
country and the source of the world's largest supply of illicit opium.

___________________________________

Bangkok Post, December 26, 2003
PM's helicopter `was at risk'
By Wassana Nanuam

Thai drug traffickers, with the help of a Burmese ethnic group, would have
attacked the Thai and Burmese prime ministers with surface-to-air missiles
had they boarded a helicopter to visit a Burmese village under Wa control,
according to senior Thai sources.

M.R. Disnadda Diskul, chief executive of the Doi Tung Development Project,
confirmed the report saying the attack had been planned by drug
traffickers who did not want the countries to enjoy good ties and the
crop-substitution project to succeed.

``What Thailand and Burma are doing together is causing billions of baht
worth of damage to drug traffickers. So they ganged up with an ethnic
group to plan the attack with SAM-7 shoulder-fired missiles. The
heat-seeking missile can be fired from either side of the border. There
lives would have been in grave danger had they decided not to call off the
trip,'' M.R. Disnadda said in the Wa-controlled Baan Yong Kha village
opposite Chiang Rai province.

Mr Thaksin and his Burmese counterpart Gen Khin Nyunt were advised to
cancel their joint visit to Baan Yong Kha yesterday by their security
advisers.

They were to inaugurate a local hospital and inspect a crop-substitution
programme implemented by the Doi Tung Development Project to replace drugs
production.

Maj-Gen Manas Paorik, commander of the Pha Muang Task Force and a former
pre-cadet classmate of Mr Thaksin, had warned that an ethnic group,
together with some Thais, were planning to launch a SAM-7 missile attack
to bring down the helicopter.

It was on his advice that Mr Thaksin had cancelled the visit and sent
someone else in his place.

Thai Third Army commander Lt-Gen Pichanmet Muangmanee and Maj-Gen Thura
Khin Zaw, commander of the Burmese Triangle Army, inaugurated the Baan
Yong Kha hospital and visited the agricultural project in place of Mr
Thaksin and Gen Khin Nyunt.

The two were welcomed by Pao Yu Chang, chief of the United Wa State Army.

In response to the Thai premier's absence, Col San Pwint, Burma's deputy
chief of intelligence, insisted that Burmese and Wa authorities could have
guaranteed the safety of Mr Thaksin and Gen Khin Nyunt.

``If Mr Thaksin had entered the Wa area, we would not have allowed even a
mosquito to bite him,'' said the colonel.


OPINION/OTHER
___________________________________

Scripps Howard News Service, December 24, 2003
2003 saw fall of two of world's 10 worst dictators
By Lisa Hoffman

The year now passing has been a decidedly dismal one for dictators.
In 2003, two of the top 10 tyrants listed by human rights groups as the
worst in the world fell from power.
In August, strongman Charles Taylor, an indicted war criminal,
relinquished his bloody control of the war-devastated African country of
Liberia and fled to exile in Nigeria.
This month, Saddam Hussein, called the "Butcher of Baghdad" by some for
allegedly presiding over mass killings and atrocities, was nabbed by U.S.
forces and is now sitting in a well-protected slammer as plans are made
for his war-crime trial.
And another perennial top-10 despot -- Libya's Moammar Gadhafi -- last
week renounced the development of weapons of mass destruction in a bid to
improve relations with the United States. So far, though, Gadhafi has made
no appreciable moves toward loosening his iron grip on the north African
nation he has ruled since 1969.
Despite that, the 2003 edition of Freedom House's annual survey of the
world's 192 sovereign countries found that more people now live in freedom
than ever before in the organization's 30-year history of gauging the
globe's condition.
"There were significant gains for freedom around the world," the
non-profit organization's 700-page report said.
In fact, the group calculated that a record 89 countries are free. These
nations are home to about 2.7 billion people, or 44 percent of the world's
population.
Another 55 countries -- including Russia, Albania, Kenya, Kuwait and
Colombia -- are classified as "partly free." Living there are 21 percent
of the world's population, or 1.3 billion people. "Not free" nations
number 48, home to 2.2 billion. By the Freedom House count, more than 35
percent of the world still remains under a dictatorship or authoritarian
regime.
According to Freedom House's analysis and similar rankings by human rights
groups, the other seven "worst dictators in the world" are:
•  Kim Jong-il, North Korea. The son of a ruthless dictator who died in
1994, Kim has turned the country into an even more repressive Stalinist
state where he has constructed a cult of personality with himself as
absolute leader.
•  Than Shwe, Myanmar (Burma). Head of a military junta that seized power
in 1988, Shwe and his henchmen have filled jails with political prisoners
and committed an array of grievous human rights abuses, including torture,
rape and summary executions.
•  Alexander Lukashenko, Belarus. In Europe's last dictatorship,
Lukashenko has steadily tightened the civil liberties screws in the former
Soviet territory since he took power in 1994.
•  Fidel Castro, Cuba. Although he has loosened some economic strictures
in recent years, the world's longest-lived dictator still presides over
widespread political repression in one of the last communist countries.
•  Saparmurat Niyazov, Turkmenistan. Niyazov, the former head of the
former Soviet republic's communist party, has ruled since 1990 and now
exercises absolute power over all branches of government, media and
religious practice.
•  Teodoro Obiang Nguema, Equatorial Guinea. Since Obiang took power in
1979 by ousting and murdering his uncle, he turned the West African
country into one of the most closed and repressive societies in the world,
where political dissent is punished by torture and imprisonment.
•  King Fahd and Crown Prince Abdullah, Saudi Arabia. Absolute monarch
since 1982, an ailing Fahd ceded political authority to his nephew
Abdullah in 1996 after suffering a stroke. Elections, political parties
and all religions except Islam are banned; torture and arbitrary arrest
are common; and criticism of the government, Islam or the ruling family is
forbidden.
___________________________________

The Nation, December 26, 2003
Government needs to wake up to reality

Anti-drug moves in Burma need to be linked to a political solution in Rangoon

Confusing and mixed signals have long been the hallmark of Prime Minister
Thaksin Shinawatra in his handling of drugs and Burmese insurgent groups
based on the other side of the border in the Burma sector of the Golden
Triangle. For the past three years, the Thaksin government has been
condemning the United Wa State Army (UWSA), a pro-Rangoon group that
operates just a stone's throw from the Thai border, accusing it of being
the main source of methamphetamines flooding into the country.

The UWSA has been accused of everything from being a major threat to
national security to assassination attempts against Thaksin, as his war on
drugs has supposedly cut into their profits.

Some senior Thai Army officers have publicly accused their Burmese
counterparts of not doing enough to curb the illicit activities of the
UWSA, and suggested that they were being bribed to turn a blind eye to the
illegal activities.

The UWSA has been called the world's largest armed drug trafficking group
by the US State Department. A number of their commanders, including Wei
Hsueh-kang, are wanted on drug-trafficking charges.

But today the commander of Thailand's Third Army Region, Lt-General
Picharnmate Muangmanee, will preside over the opening of a hospital in
Mong Yawn, a UWSA stronghold adjacent to Chiang Rai's Mae Fa Luang
district.

The Thai-funded hospital in Mong Yawn is part of a bigger programme, the
Yong Kha project, that is modelled after Thailand's Doi Tung
crop-substitution project in what was once an opium-growing area in Chiang
Rai province.

Supporters of the Yong Kha project like to say that the aid is for the
Burmese government - not the UWSA. However, it is well understood that the
area in question is directly under UWSA control.

However, it is not clear what purpose this Yong Kha project will serve.
For one thing, the Doi Tung project was aimed at replacing what was then
an opium economy with other crops. It took the Kingdom three decades and a
lot of help from the international community to achieve some success.

But the problems with Mong Yawn and the UWSA are not concerned with opium
cultivation alone. They demonstrate the close relationship between Burma's
illicit drug industry and its insurgencies.

One insurgent group after another has turned to the production of opium,
and, over the past decade, methamphetamines, to sustain their armies
because of the absence of a political settlement between them and the
Rangoon government.

In other words, no anti-drug policy has any chance of success if it is not
linked to a political solution acceptable to the central government of
Burma and the several armed ethnic groups, some of which have entered
cease-fire agreements but continue to engage in the drug business.

The Thai government and the country's people will be better served if
Thaksin goes beyond this simple political gesture to the Rangoon
government and seriously addresses the root of the drug problem coming out
of Burma.

This means the government will have to comprehensively address issues such
as the sources of financing for the drug production, the supply of
precursor chemicals needed to make methamphetamines, the clandestine
drug-making labs, and the smugglers who often engage in gunfights with
Thai troops along the northern border.

The Bt20-million grant to the Yong Kha project is a drop in the bucket
when one takes into consideration the magnitude of Burma's drug
industry.</P>It's time the Thaksin administration woke up to the fact that
Burma's illicit drug industry and ethnic insurgencies have long been two
sides of the same coin.

___________________________________

Agence France Presse, December 25, 2003
Democracy hopes for Myanmar dashed, then revived in 2003
By Sarah Stewart

Hopes for democratic reform in Myanmar appeared to have evaporated in May
when the ruling junta arrested opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi and
crushed her party. Yet the end of the year has again brought possibilities
of change.

The military regime announced at an international forum in Bangkok earlier
this month that in the new year it would embark on its so-called "road map
to democracy" by holding a national convention to draft a new
constitution.

Myanmar's Foreign Minister Win Aung said Aung San Suu Kyi's National
League for Democracy (NLD) would take part in the convention, a crucial
move as the last convention collapsed in 1995 when the opposition
withdrew.

The promise was greeted with cautious approval from the international
community which had greeted the "road map" unveiled in August by newly
appointed Prime Minister General Khin Nyunt with deep scepticism.

"We are encouraged by the commitment to want to take the necessary steps,"
said United Nations special envoy to Myanmar Razali Ismail who brokered an
ill-fated dialogue between Aung San Suu Kyi and the junta in 2000.

Razali said he had been extremely frustrated at the slow pace of change in
Myanmar but that now "things are moving, perhaps creepingly, but they are
moving".

The road map was announced by Khin Nyunt, the junta's influential number
three, as part of damage-control measures after the disastrous May
crackdown on the opposition.

The year had begun fairly quietly in Myanmar, with Aung San Suu Kyi seven
months out of an earlier period of house arrest, but relations with the
regime cooled as her trips around country became increasingly
confrontational.

Rising tensions then exploded with an attack on the Nobel peace laureate
and her entourage in northern Myanmar by a thousands-strong band of
pro-junta thugs, which unconfirmed eyewitness reports said left dozens
dead.

What had apparently started as an attempt to frighten the increasingly
confident and effective NLD after Aung San Suu Kyi's release, had turned
into a massive public relations blunder.

The United Nations and the European Union tightened sanctions against the
impoverished state, sending the creaking economy into chaos, and its major
donor Japan turned off the aid tap.

Most worryingly for the ruling State Peace and Development Council (SPDC),
neighbouring nations which usually refrained from criticising the junta
began complaining that its behaviour was bringing the entire region into
disrepute.

In response, it presented Khin Nyunt as the new prime minister, went on an
international charm offensive and came up with the seven-point road map
which included "free and fair" elections held under the new constitution.

"The government's playing a good game here, quite cunning really," said
one Yangon-based diplomat. "They're masters at maintaining their own
position."

"The NLD's got to go along (to the national convention) and play along and
if they don't they'll fall into the government's hands which will say
they're not prepared to participate or help," he said.

There are grave doubts that the junta is serious about making any real
democratic reforms, and most observers believe any changes would be
largely cosmetic and leave the military still in ultimate control.

Critics of the road map also note that the government is planning the
convention even as it holds Aung San Suu Kyi and several of her
lieutenants in detention, along with an estimated 1,300 other political
prisoners.

International calls for the release of the opposition leader, who the
ruling generals have come to hate and fear since her party won a
disallowed 1990 election victory in a landslide, have so far been ignored.

But nevertheless, many say the pro-democracy side must grasp the rare
opportunity to conduct an open debate among the various stakeholders in
national reconciliation, including ethnic parties whose agreement will be
crucial.

"Both sides have to make a move and take a more pragmatic approach. We all
know that there is no superpower going to bring down this government, like
in Iraq," said Aung Zaw, editor of the Thailand-based Myanmar affairs
magazine Irrawaddy.

Yangon-based analysts also said that while the junta must show more proof
of its sincerity, including by releasing Aung San Suu Kyi and other top
NLD figures, the other parties must throw themselves into the process.

"The road map is the political way out for the military, guaranteeing a
future power-sharing role for them. It behoves on the rest to take up the
offer seriously, in the hope the military is sincere about bringing
democracy, in whatever form, to the nation," said one commentator.

___________________________________

Irrawaddy, December 26, 2003
The Winner Will Be Cursed
by Aung Naing  Oo

Actions speak louder than rhetoric and empty promises. The Burmese junta's
actions are nothing if not consistent, and they clearly reveal the
regime's strategy. It is the strategy of winner-take-all.

But the Burmese generals do not seem to understand that such a strategy
often backfires. Indeed, it is often a prescription for failure.

Jan Eliasson, former State Secretary of the Swedish Ministry for Foreign
Affairs, cited the Treaty of Versailles, signed between the Germans and
the Allies after the First World War, as an example of a classic zero-sum
treaty imposed by the victors upon the losers. His remarks were compiled
in the booklet "International Mediation: Case Studies and General
Conclusions" by the Olof Palme International Center in Sweden, and they
come from a man with a wealth of experience in international mediation.
Eliasson emphasized the importance of "empathy and common sense of
ownership" in determining a resolution to a violent conflict. If the
resolution lacks these qualities, the disputants are likely to revert to
conflict. "If the pendulum can swing back ten years later," he wrote, "not
much is won."

This could be the case for Burma.

Imagine what will happen if and when Burma's State Peace and Development
Council (SPDC) awards itself a chunky and posthumous role in governance,
in accordance with the proposed constitution. Or suppose it excludes
pro-democracy dissidents, especially Aung San Suu Kyi and her National
League for Democracy, from the political process.

If the outcome of the National Convention is a classic zero-sum, the
pendulum will definitely swing back. It will only be a matter of time.

It's human nature to ask for more when given very little. And when the
victor imposes punitive measures upon the loser, the victory can only be
temporary. In this case the winner has accursed itself.

For now, the SPDC has gotten its way. A spate of ethnic giants such as the
Mon and the Kachin along with political parties such as the National Unity
Party have pledged their support for the Convention. The Karen have
established a temporary truce and are negotiating for a permanent
cease-fire.

Other ethnic groups are likely to follow suit. But since they will be
subject to the regime's coercive tactics, they may have no choice but to
make unpleasant concessions. In a word, the SPDC will get what it wants.

And the upshot is that pro-democracy dissidents will remain marginalized.
Their aspirations will remain unfulfilled. Aung San Suu Kyi along with
hundreds of political prisoners may still be in prison until the regime's
"roadmap for democracy" is achieved.

The primary goal of the ethnic groups has always been self-determination
and autonomy within a federal Burma, as outlined by the original 1947
constitution. But they are unlikely to get it. In many respects, the
proposed constitution bears little resemblance to that document.

And it's highly probable that there will be no mechanism for uncovering
the truth about the regime's past crimes. But the memories of suffering
and injustice will not simply go away. This fact will jeopardize any
attempt at reconciliation. Pro-democracy dissidents and ethnic groups will
continue to demand more freedom, greater autonomy, human rights and
justice.

So if the Burmese regime seeks a zero-sum outcome, the conflict in Burma
will continue, albeit possibly in a different form. And the implementation
of the roadmap for democracy will be plagued with controversies,
non-cooperation and continued hostilities, many of which will prove fatal.
The economy will be affected, as will the relationship between the people
and the armed forces, and indeed every aspect of life in the country. Only
then will the Burmese regime realize the cost of its victory.

Are there any alternatives to square one? Fortunately, yes. First of all,
the SPDC must relinquish sole ownership of the political process. It must
recognize that the conflict in Burma has many stakeholders and that they
all need to be winners, not just the junta. The SPDC must guarantee that
the outcome of the Convention is agreeable to all parties. It must take
its lessons from the likes of South Africa and Chile.

As long as the SPDC holds all the cards, the temptation to impose its will
is understandable. But it should not underestimate the cost of a zero-sum
game. To do so would be both a strategic and a tactical mistake.

It is well to recall that it took less than twenty years for Nazi Germany
to arise out of the ashes of the Versailles treaty. And the devastation
that it wrought on mankind hardly needs repeating. Burma's case is a
different one, but the principle is universal: the pendulum always swings
back. And the winner will be cursed.