BurmaNet News, Feb 6 - 9, 2004

[editor at burmanet.org]

Feb 6-9, 2004 Issue # 2419


INSIDE BURMA
AFP: Myanmar junta to lift crackdown on opposition, Suu Kyi could be freed
BBC Monitor: No bird flu in Burma, official says; deaths from "mysterious
disease" reported
BBC Monitor: Burmese government urges army to recruit more minority youths
BBC Monitor: Burmese opposition radio: Two senior democracy party members
arrested

BUSINESS / MONEY
Asia Pulse: India, 5 BIMSTEC members sign free trade deal
BBC Monitor: India offers to develop Burma port as regional meeting ends
in Thailand
Mizzima:  Bird flu scares Indo-Burma border trade

REGIONAL
AFP: UN envoy fails to win invitation to Myanmar, date for democracy "road
map"
AFP: Indonesia to send envoy back to Myanmar to press for democracy
BBC Monitor: Thailand ready to hold new forum if Burma shows progress in
drafting charter


INTERNATIONAL
EIU: Myanmar: Country outlook

OPINION / OTHER
News Desk: The Military's 'Roadmap' as a Catalyst
IT Business: Myanmar's e-government is a sham
Irrawaddy: An Interview with José Ramos-Horta
Irrawaddy: Burmese Artists on Display

PRESS RELEASE
NCGUB: Ethnic Leaders Lauded for 'Common Approach' Toward Democracy,
Federalism
USCB: US Campaign for Burma Recognizes Burma's Ethnic Nationalities'
Rejection of Regime's Roadmap



INSIDE BURMA
___________________________________

Feb 9, Agence France Presse
Myanmar junta to lift crackdown on opposition, Suu Kyi could be freed

Myanmar's crippled pro-democracy opposition will be allowed to operate
normally before the launch of a national convention this year and its
leader Aung San Suu Kyi could also be freed from house arrest, Foreign
Minister Win Aung said Monday.

"I think it could change," Win Aung said when asked whether the junta was
considering lifting the restrictions on the Nobel Peace Prize laureate,
who was taken into detention last May after unrest that triggered a
crackdown on her party.

Win Aung, here at a regional meeting, told AFP that there was no date set
for the landmark national convention, the first step in the junta's "road
map" to democracy which it has said will begin in 2004.

The convention, which will draft a new constitution, will be launched
"maybe in the first six months (of the year) or during the second six
months, it depends on the completion of our preparations," he said.

The minister said that the restrictions on Aung San Suu Kyi's National
League for Democracy (NLD), which was effectively shut down after May
unrest, would be lifted as part of confidence-building measures.

"The government is doing all it can to normalise the situation. It's
something that will take place... That's the atmosphere we would like to
see," he said.

The participation of the NLD and the conditions its leader is under will
be critical to the credibility of the convention which is billed as
eventually leading to "free and fair" elections.

The NLD withdrew from a previous convention in 1995 on the grounds it was
unrepresentative and this time the government has insisted that all the
pro-democracy and ethnic political parties will be invited.

However, with its leader under house arrest for the past nine months, the
NLD is not believed to be in a position to make a decision on whether to
attend.

"They could be a part of it... the question of whether the NLD participate
or not among themselves they are considering," Win Aung said.
____________________________

Feb 7, BBC Monitor
No bird flu in Burma, official says; deaths from "mysterious disease"
reported

SOURCE: Democratic Voice of Burma, Oslo, in Burmese 1430 gmt 5 Feb 04

BODY:
Excerpt from report by Burmese opposition radio on 5 February

It has been learned that chickens bred at the Burmese army bases in Karen
State are increasingly dying from an unknown disease in recent days.

According to local residents, young chicks from the poultry farms of IB
Infantry Battalion No 201 based at Pa-an and chickens from the poultry
farms of IB No 62 based at Kya-in Seikkyi, under LID Light Infantry
Division No 22, have been dying in large numbers since late January. It is
not precisely known whether the deaths are related to the bird flu virus
which is currently raging in neighbouring Thailand and Vietnam. When DVB
Democratic Voice of Burma contacted Pa-an and Kya-in Seikkyi townships,
local residents confirmed the reports.

Pa-an resident - recording Well, they are the chickens from the military
poultry farm of IB No 201. The young chicks were sent from the central
military farm in Rangoon for breeding at the LID Headquarters in the
districts. At first 20 died then 100 more later. I think it happened a few
days ago, about the end of January. End of recording

That was a resident from Pa-an. A resident from Kya-in Seikkyi also
remarked that it is very unusual for the young chicks to die in the cold
season. passage omitted

It has been learned that between 20 and 30 people have died from a
mysterious disease in recent days in villages along the (?Salween) River
connecting Kya-in Seikkyi in Karen State with Payathonzu at the
Burma-Thailand border. Local residents said the symptoms are similar to
malaria with high fever and the patient succumbing after two to three days
of suffering from diarrhoea.

In order to learn whether the deaths in Karen State are connected to the
bird flu and whether there are enough educational programmes on the bird
flu, DVB contacted Dr Than Tun, director of the Animal Husbandry and
Veterinary Medicine Department, in Rangoon.

DVB correspondent - recording What is your department doing to prevent
bird flu from infecting poultry farms in Burma?

Dr Than Tun We are taking preventive measures. We have also directed
responsible personnel on the procedures. passage omitted

DVB correspondent When did you start directing preventive measures?

Dr Than Tun We started our activities from 7 January. Our cooperation with
the Health Department began on 24 January. We have many poultry farms
countrywide and we have instructed those responsible to monitor closely
the activities of the farm and to inform of any irregularities.

DVB correspondent We heard that many chickens have died on military-run
poultry farms in Karen State. Have you received any news from them?

Dr Than Tun There are many diseases that could infect the chickens.
passage omitted We have carried out inspections and found nothing,
including in Karen State. We are concerned about the border trade points
at Myawadi and Kawthaung, especially about imported poultry from Thailand.

DVB correspondent We heard recently that between 20 and 30 people have
died from a mysterious disease in the villages along the Salween River
connecting Kya-in Seikkyi in Karen State with Payathonzu. Do you think it
is related to the bird flu?

Dr Than Tun Well, I do not think so because the bird flu mostly affects
the respiratory system.

DVB correspondent In your educational programme, do you explain to the
people about the bird flu symptoms?

Dr Than Tun Yes, of course. passage omitted

DVB correspondent Do you explain to the people on whether the bird flu
could be contracted by humans?

Dr Than Tun Yes, of course. That is the main reason for this health
education by our Veterinary Department as well as the Health Department.
That is the reason why poultry consumption has dropped. If there is an
outbreak of bird flu there is no way you can hide it. So, I can still say
there is no case of bird flu either in humans or in poultry in Burma. End
of recording

That was Dr Than Tun, Director of Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Medicine
Department, in Rangoon. passage omitted

According to latest news report, it has been learned that at the end of
last month Taunggyi-based Eastern Military Command ordered all battalions
and units in Shan State to sell all the chickens from all military-owned
poultry farms as soon as possible. Furthermore, sources close to the
military said, educational talks on bird flu are to be given to all
dependent family members from the battalions and units and all chickens,
ducks, and geese owned by dependent family members are to be sold as
quickly as possible.
___________________________

Feb 6, BBC Monitor
Burmese government urges army to recruit more minority youths

Source: Democratic Voice of Burma, Oslo, in Burmese 1430 gmt 4 Feb 04

It has been learned that the State Peace and Development Council SPDC has
ordered its officers in regional military units to pay special attention
to organizing and recruiting ethnic youths. It was stated in a directive
issued by the Military Headquarters in Rangoon last month.

The directive said a recruiting officer would be rewarded 20,000 kyat
about 3,196 US dollars for recruiting an ethnic youth as received .
Earlier, the reward was 5,000 kyat for recruiting a soldier. According to
the recent directive, officers who are able to recruit ethnic youths will
get more rewards.

A warrant officer from a Lashio-based local unit under the Northeast
Command who wants to remain anonymous told the DVB Democratic Voice of
Burma that the regional military units were making arrangements to
organize and recruit ethnic youths.

It has also been learned from the same officer that there is a possibility
of an increased recruitment of ethnic youths.
____________________________

Feb 9, Agence France Presse
Burmese opposition radio: Two senior democracy party members arrested

Source: Democratic Voice of Burma, Oslo, in Burmese 1430 gmt 8 Feb 04

Dear Listeners: It has learned that the SPDC State Peace and Development
Council has sent U Tin Maung Kyi and U Myint Aye, senior members of the
Kemmendine Township NLD National League for Democracy Headquarters in
Yangon Rangoon Division, to Insein jail. They were arrested by the
Military Intelligence at the end of January. The Military Intelligence
also searched U Tin Maung Kyi's house and seized some of his properties on
5 February. Regarding this issue, Correspondence Maung Maung Aye reports
as follows:

Maung Maung Aye Begin recording Senior NLD leaders U Tin Maung Kyi and U
Myint Aye from Kemmendine Township were arrested by the Military
Intelligence No 7 on 30 and 31 January respectively and sent to Insein
jail. When asked what was taken away from U Tin Maung Kyi's house by the
Military Intelligence and whether family members were allowed to see him,

Unidentified youth from NLD Headquarters When U Tin Maung Kyi's house was
searched on 5 February, they confiscated two computers and a printer from
the house. Since U Tin Maung Kyi is a publisher, they also photographed
and confiscated the books that were to be published. On the same day, they
also sent back Ko Myint Aye's white collarless shirt and a Kachin sarong
to his home. This means Ko Myint Aye does not have to wear them as he was
sent to Insein jail.

Maung Maung Aye That was a youth from the NLD Headquarters. Moreover, the
Military Intelligence has taken way NLD youths Maung Maung Lay, Ko Aung
Thein, and Ko Naing Oo from Kemmendine Township - who were arrested and
charged with distributing pamphlets on the Tabayin incident - from their
Ward Nos 2, 4 and 5 in Insein jail for further interrogation.

__________________________

Feb 9, BBC Monitor
Burma introduces "e-visa system"



BUSINESS / MONEY
_____________________________________

Feb 9, Asia Pulse
India, 5 BIMSTEC members sign free trade deal

India and 5 members of the BIMSTEC economic club on Sunday signed the
landmark Framework Agreement for Free Trade Area, which is widely seen as
a major step towards greater free trade in Asia and a bridge connecting
South Asia with Southeast Asia.

The proposed agreement faced rough weather on Saturday after founding
member Bangladesh refused to sign the pact at the last moment leaving 4
members - India, Thailand, Myanmar and Sri Lanka showing interest in
initialling it.

However, this morning Bhutan and Nepal, who formally joined the grouping
48 hours ago, decided to be a part of the pact.

Under the deal, BIMSTEC's more developed nations India, Sri Lanka and
Thailand will commit to abolish tarrifs by 2012 while the 3 less-developed
members Myanmar, Bhutan and Nepal will have another 5-year grace period.

Tariffs will begin to be reduced in mid-2006 with products designated for
'fast track' treatment to be traded on a zero-tariff basis by mid- 2009
for the 3 developed members and by mid-2011 by the other countries.
____________________________

Feb 8, BBC Monitor
India offers to develop Burma port as regional meeting ends in Thailand

Source: PTI news agency, New Delhi, in English 1652 gmt 8 Feb 04, Text of
report by Jaishree Balasubramanian, carried by Indian news agency PTI

Phuket (Thailand), 8 February: India on Sunday 8 February offered to fund
and conduct a feasibility study to develop an area near Myanmar's Burma's
Dawei area for deep sea port as foreign ministers from seven Asian
nations, including India's Yashwant Sinha, today identified six priority
areas to be the focus of future projects by the BIMSTEC Bangladesh, India,
Myanmar, Sri Lanka and Thailand Economic Cooperation economic club.

Foreign ministers from Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri
Lanka and Thailand ended a two-day deliberation in this idyllic island in
Thailand's Andaman Sea area, known for sandy beaches and resorts,
promising to meet for their first summit in July in Bangkok.

A joint ministerial statement issued at the end of the meeting said the
group "encouraged continued cooperation and implementation of projects in
six priority sectors of trade and investment, technology, energy,
transportation and communications, tourism and fisheries." The leaders
said special emphasis should be placed on hydrocarbon and hydropower
potential and people-to-people contact in the region. Thai Foreign
Minister Surakiart Sathirathai said India had offered to finance and
conduct a feasibility study for the Dawei area project.

The Dawei area, about 300 km from Bangkok and situated on Myanmar's
southwest coast, is called Yon Bin and faces the Bay of Bengal and Andaman
Sea. Myanmar is keen to see this area, not far from Bangladesh or India,
become a hub connecting South Asia and South East Asia.

The Thai foreign minister added that the seven-member BIMSTEC grouping did
not want many projects but enough projects which the member countries
could work on to get quick results and which were beneficial for the
people of the member countries.

The BIMSTEC, which was set up in 1997, will hold its first-ever summit on
31 July 2004 . Senior ministers from the grouping will meet on 30 July, he
said.
____________________________

Feb 7, Mizzima
Bird flu scares Indo-Burma border trade

orried over the spreading of bird flu, the Indian Health Ministry has
restricted the import of chicken and other red meat into the northeast
India.

Manipur and Mizoram states import chicken and other meat to meet the
demand of the local people. Moreover, Burmese chickens are comparatively
cheaper than local poultry.

“We have already sealed the Indo-Burma border and the people, particularly
villagers living along the international border, not to import any chicken
or other animal meat to the state”, a health
department spokesman of Mizoram told Mizzima today. He further said that
traders generally import one to three quintal (one quintal=130 kilogram)
of animal meat from Burma a day. However, the department has already
started surveillance of the meat trade along the international border for
Burmese meat imports.

Asked if these restrictions would affect local trade, a trader from
Aizawl, capital of Mizoram State, replied that meat trading with Burma had
already been affected by fear of the spreading of Bird Flu. “This is a
serious matter and hence we should be careful so that the disease does
not spread to the region”, he added.

The Manipur government also expressed a similar view and has sealed its
border with Burma. Moreh, said to be one of the major trade points in the
region with Burma, has been witnessing very little trade during the last
couple of days in the wake of outbreak of bird flu. The Burmese
villagers, who generally come to India to sell chicken and other animal
meat through the Moreh trade point, are facing a tough time.

“They (Burmese traders) sell on an average 200 to 500 kg of chicken in
Moreh a day, but due to the disease, the sale has come to a grinding
halt”, Shaym, a Moreh hotel owner, said. Shyam said that the other trades
are also suffering a setback as traders have stopped visiting the area.
“If this continues then the entire business community would be affected”,
he said.

Meanwhile, the Manipur government has taken precautionary measures to
prevent an outbreak of bird flu in the northeast India. Even Burmese rice,
which has good demand in the Manipur market, has been receiving a lukewarm
response.


REGIONAL
____________________________

Feb 8, Agence France Presse
UN envoy fails to win invitation to Myanmar, date for democracy "road map"

UN envoy Razali Ismail met with Myanmar's Foreign Minister Win Aung Sunday
but failed to win an invitation to visit the country or find out when its
"road map" to democracy will be launched.

"You know my interest in going. We're waiting there on that point," Razali
told reporters after the talks held on the sidelines of a regional
ministerial meeting on this Thai resort island.

Razali said in December that he aimed to make his 12th visit to Myanmar
early in the new year, but sources say that so far his overtures have been
rebuffed, forcing him to instead travel here to see the minister.

Since Myanmar announced the road map last August, a sceptical
international community has been waiting to learn when the first step in
the process -- a national convention to draft a new constitution -- will
begin.

But Razali said the topic was not broached. "We didn't discuss that. We
just exchanged views," he told reporters. "I didn't talk about the
details."

However, after talks between Win Aung and his Thai counterpart Surakiart
Sathirathai, officials they were confident Myanmar was moving towards
reforms and that it gained a "clearer indication" of when the convention
would be held.

Thailand has also said it hopes to hold a second round of international
talks on Myanmar by mid-year, in anticipation the ruling junta will soon
kick off the road map which culminates in "free and fair" elections.

"We feel that since the meeting of the Bangkok process there has been
progress," said Thai foreign ministry spokesman Sihasak Phuangketkeow,
referring to the 12-nation talks held in the Thai capital in December.

"We hope that there will be more progress soon."

Sihasak said that in a separate meeting with Surakiart, Razali also
expressed optimism that movement was in the offing.

"He believes that since the first meeting of the Bangkok process there has
been progress in the right direction," he said, citing an indication of a
timeframe, assurances that minority groups would take part in the
convention, and a new ceasefire struck with Myanmar's largest rebel group.

The road map was unveiled by Prime Minister General Khin Nyunt as part of
a public relations campaign rolled out by the junta after it took
opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi into detention.

The Nobel peace laureate is now under house arrest for the third time
since 1988, after being detained in the wake of political unrest last May
which also triggered a sweeping crackdown on her party.

The United States and European Union tightened their sanctions against
Myanmar in response to the move against the opposition leader and her
National League for Democracy, which won 1990 elections but was never
allowed to rule.

Razali was the catalyst for landmark contacts between the junta and Aung
San Suu Kyi which began in October 2000 but collapsed last year, dashing
hopes for national reconciliation in Myanmar.
____________________________

Feb 8, BBC Monitor
Thailand ready to hold new forum if Burma shows progress in drafting charter

Source: The Nation web site, Bangkok, in English 8 Feb 04, Text of report
in English by Thai newspaper The Nation web site on 8 February

Thailand hopes to open another international forum on Burma by the middle
of this year if that country shows progress in drafting a new
constitution.

"Thailand is expecting to organize the second round of the international
forum, but that depends on the development of a national convention in
Burma," Foreign Ministry spokesman Sihasak Phuangketkeow said yesterday.

Foreign Minister Surakiart Sathirathai talked with Burmese Foreign
Minister Win Aung on the sidelines of yesterday's session of the BIMST-EC
Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Thailand - Economic Cooperation
ministerial meeting being held on this resort island. Burma said it was
determined to reconvene the national constituent convention before year's
end, Sihasak said.

That commitment had been made to the 12 nations attending the first
Bangkok forum held in December to discuss the military regime's road map
to democracy and national reconciliation, dubbed the "Bangkok Process".

Burma briefed Thailand on its "good and regular" contacts with opposition
leader Aung San Suu Kyi and also gave "a clear indication" of the time
frame for implementation of its road map, Sihasak said without
elaborating. Thailand wants to expedite construction of the East-West
Corridor highway from India through Burma to Thailand. A meeting of senior
officials responsible for the project would be held as soon as possible,
he said.

Thailand and India have agreed to help Burma with grants and soft loans to
lay its section of the road, which has been hampered in some areas still
controlled by ethnic insurgents.

The Karen National Union, one of the biggest armed minority groups,
reached a verbal cease-fire agreement with Rangoon last month.


INTERNATIONAL
____________________________

Feb 6, Economist Intelligence Outlook
Myanmar: Country outlook

The ruling military junta, the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC),
will push ahead with some tightly controlled reforms in 2004-05 in an
effort to confer some legitimacy on its regime. However, it is unlikely to
undertake meaningful political reform or engage in dialogue with
opposition groups. Unless the junta finds a way to engage with the
opposition National League for Democracy (NLD) and agrees to allow the NLD
leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, to operate freely, sanctions will remain in
place and the current economic problems will deepen further. (Aung San Suu
Kyi remains under house arrest.) Real GDP growth will be held back by
sluggish domestic demand, credit limitations and severe shortages of
power. The junta will maintain a highly overvalued official exchange rate,
and double-digit inflation and deteriorating confidence will impose
downward pressure on the free-market rate.

DOMESTIC POLITICS: There is still no sign that the ruling military junta,
the SPDC, intends to introduce meaningful political reforms in 2004-05.
The SPDC has abandoned the tentative dialogue with the NLD, the party that
won an overwhelming victory in the last election in 1990. Instead, it
plans to follow a reform "road map", which was unveiled in August 2003, in
the hope of conferring some legitimacy on the military regime. However,
the junta's pledges lack credibility while it continues to detain senior
NLD members (Aung San Suu Kyi has been detained since May 30th 2003) and
prevent the NLD from reopening regional offices. The SPDC's overarching
objective remains that of ensuring that the military maintains its grip on
power.

INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS: Thailand has been supportive of the junta's plan
to implement its own reform plans at a self-determined pace, and on
December 15th it hosted an international forum for the SPDC's officials to
present their plans. However, some Association of South-East Asian Nations
(ASEAN) members, namely Indonesia and the Philippines, have made it clear
that they want to see at least modest reform in Myanmar by 2006, in order
to avoid embarrassment to the group when Myanmar takes over as chair. The
US, which believes that pressure from ASEAN (and neighbouring Thailand in
particular) is the best hope for bringing about political change in
Myanmar, has maintained pressure on these countries to take firmer action.
However, it is unlikely that ASEAN will take a tougher line unless the
junta commits major atrocities. The same is true of Myanmar's other
neighbours, China and India. Both countries maintain a competitive
strategic interest in Myanmar, and their efforts to engender closer ties
with Myanmar are unlikely to be disrupted by Myanmar's political turmoil.

POLICY TRENDS: The SPDC appears incapable of coherent economic
policymaking, and until the NLD is offered a strong role in the
government--a scenario that is looking increasingly unlikely in
2004-05--there is no prospect of multilateral institutions providing vital
technical and financial support. There is a high risk, therefore, that the
SPDC will fail to devise and implement policies to resolve the economic
malaise and widespread, chronic poverty that have resulted from years of
economic mismanagement and corruption. In a typically ill-conceived policy
initiative, in early 2004 the junta banned all rice exports, undoing
tentative liberalisation measures that began last year, apparently in an
effort to offset the inflationary impact of a modest pay rise for civil
servants. Although effective in easing inflationary pressures, the move
has caused rice prices to plummet, thereby causing serious economic
hardship for many farmers--the bulk of the country's workforce.

INTERNATIONAL ASSUMPTIONS: The global economy is growing rapidly, and the
Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts that world GDP growth (on a
purchasing power parity basis) will average 4.3% in 2004, before slowing
to a still robust 4% in 2005. In 2003 the Japanese economy performed well,
but we doubt that this impressive performance will translate into a
sustained economic rebound--we estimate GDP growth in 2003 to have
averaged 2.1%, and forecast that this rate will slow to 1.3% in 2004,
before weakening to a more modest 1% in 2005. The US economy is estimated
to have grown by 3.2% in 2003, and is forecast to accelerate to 4.2% in
2004 before slowing to 3.1% in 2005. Although Myanmar's exporters will not
benefit directly from any strengthening of US demand (owing to the US ban
on imports from Myanmar), Myanmar's main export markets in Asia,
particularly Thailand, China and India, will grow strongly in the next few
years. If the junta maintains its ban on rice exports, it will fail to
benefit from the forecast average growth in global rice prices of around
5% year on year in 2004 and 2005.

ECONOMIC GROWTH: The junta has recently stated that the economy grew by
around 11% year on year in fiscal year 2001/02 (April-March) and 2002/03.
If such rates of growth were accurate, Myanmar's economy would have been
one of the fastest-growing in the world. The likelihood is that the
government's deficiencies in collecting and compiling economic data have
resulted in an inaccurate reflection of the evident weaknesses in the
economy. Even if officially reported real GDP growth slows in
2003/04-2004/05, this will still probably fail to reflect the full extent
of the deterioration in the domestic economy. The industrial sector faces
a sustained period of contraction, owing to the fact that growth in
natural gas production has levelled off and that the manufacturing sector,
which accounts for around 10% of constant-price GDP, will continue to
struggle as a result of shortages of power and essential imported inputs.
The financial crisis in early 2003 and subsequent limits on cash
withdrawals have exacerbated the deterioration in domestic demand and are
causing problems for manufacturers supplying the local market.
Opportunities for manufacturing exporters have also worsened.
International consumer boycotts are becoming more prevalent, and the US
has banned all imports from Myanmar for a period of up to three years.
These measures have already had a severe impact on the garments and
textiles sector. The outlook for the agriculture sector has also
deteriorated following the SPDC's decision to ban exports of rice, a move
that has sent rice prices plummeting. On January 28th the government
denied reports that bird flu had spread to Myanmar. However, in the event
that Myanmar does not escape the regional outbreak--neighbouring Thailand
is struggling to contain the virus--the small poultry-farming sector will
suffer heavily, as the government is likely to be ineffective in
preventing the spread of the virus.

INFLATION: The monetisation of the fiscal deficit, together with
supply-side factors such as rising food prices in 2003, have imposed
strong inflationary pressures on the economy. The latest available data
indicate that consumer prices were up by 60.1% year on year in February
2003. The decision taken by the Central Bank of Myanmar to print money in
order to bail out the banks will also have fuelled inflationary pressures
throughout most of 2003. However, anecdotal evidence suggests that
inflation eased towards end-2003, with domestic demand severely dented by
a number of factors, in particular the continued liquidity crisis and the
redundancies of garment-factory workers. The junta's renewed ban on rice
exports and the subsequent decline in food prices in early 2004 suggest
that consumer prices will rise at a slower pace than previously forecast,
probably falling from an average increase of around 50% in 2003 to around
30-40% in 2004-05.

EXCHANGE RATES: After depreciating to over Kt1,000:US$1 in
August-September 2003 following the US decision to ban imports from
Myanmar and freeze US dollar remittances, the free-market exchange rate
had improved to around Kt850:US$1 in early January. This suggests that
traders have now overcome the initial confusion and disruption to
business, and that border trade has remained buoyant and unaffected by the
measures taken by the US. However, the free-market kyat remains sensitive
to changes in the political scene and the general impression of the health
of the economy. Given that there is little expectation of positive
developments in these areas in 2004-05, the free-market exchange rate is
forecast to depreciate further. The overvalued official rate is unlikely
to be devalued in 2004-05, and will remain around Kt6:US$1.

EXTERNAL SECTOR: The current account will drop sharply back into deficit
in 2003 after recording an estimated one-off surplus in 2002. In 2004-05
the current-account deficit will widen. This trend mainly reflects shifts
in the merchandise trade account. Export revenue grew robustly until 2002,
but is expected to have contracted sharply in 2003 and will continue to
worsen in 2004-05. The rapid annual expansion in exports of gas to
Thailand, which drove overall growth in exports in recent years, has come
to an end. Moreover, the US, which accounted for around 10% of Myanmar's
exports in 2002, banned all imports from Myanmar from September 2003 for
up to three years. However, stronger demand in neighbouring markets,
particularly Thailand, China and India, will ensure that Myanmar's border
trade remains fairly buoyant. Imports have been constrained in recent
years by tight restrictions and shortages of foreign exchange, and despite
years of pent-up demand, these constraints will continue to hold down
import growth in 2004-05. The widening of the current-account deficit in
2004-05 will also be driven by an expanding deficit on the income account,
which reflects rising outflows of profits generated by foreign-invested
projects, particularly in the mining and energy sectors. Current inward
transfers, which consist predominantly of overseas workers' remittances,
will remain dependent on the earnings of migrant workers in Thailand.
These inflows are likely to be affected by the Thai government's crackdown
on illegal workers. Current inward transfers will also suffer from the
freeze on remittances from the US.


OPINION / OTHER
_____________________________________

Feb 7, News Desk
The Military's 'Roadmap' as a Catalyst

Help comes from unexpected quarters.  As the Burmese saying goes, "A yay
jee yin thway see", unity comes in time of need.

The State Peace and Development Council announced a "seven-point future
policy program" or a seven-phase roadmap on 30 June.  It came at a time
when the international community was strongly condemning the military for
the brutal crackdown and massacre of members of the National League for
Democracy near Tabayin on 30 May.  Nevertheless, the knee-jerk reaction
paid off and pressure eased on the generals who promised to the world,
particularly neighboring and regional countries, that they were bringing
democracy to Burma.

The generals previously had also tried to impose military domination over
Burma's political future with its version of "disciplined democracy"
through constitutional principles drafted by a National Convention
attended by delegates of its own picking but the process was suspended in
1996 when the NLD demanded that the National Convention be more democratic
and representative and decided to stay away from it unless its demands
were met.  That convention which dismissed the NLD had already prescribed
what is known as the "104 principles" which were to be used in drafting a
constitution that would legitimize military rule in Burma.

The generals' pledge once again to steer Burma to "disciplined democracy"
under the same "104 principles" naturally became a cause for concern to
all legal political parties, and ethnic nationality and democratic forces.
 Even the ceasefire groups, which, under intense pressure from the
generals, have pledged support for the National Convention, are saying
they want to see reforms in the process.

All political parties, organizations, and politicians that have legal
standing inside Burma as well as others beyond the reach of the military
and in exile are openly voicing their opposition to the roadmap. And that
voice of opposition has become a unifying and rallying cry for all
dissident forces.

Unifying the Visions

The Third Ethnic Nationalities Seminar, which was held recently (from 28
January to 2 February) at the Burma border and attended by 61 delegates
and observers from the ethnic nationality alliances, parties, and
organizations, agreed that the resolution of political problems in Burma
must be through a "tripartite dialogue" and the establishment of a true
Federal Union.  The participants said the "road map" and "the attempt to
reconvene its National Convention would not lead to democratization and
establishment of a federal union but only sustain a military dictatorship
in the country."

They said, "tripartite dialogue, as called for by the UN resolutions
annually since 1994", must be held "at the earliest date" to form "an
interim government" comprising of representatives, proportionally, of the
SPDC, the NLD and other political parties victorious in the 1990
elections, and the ethnic nationalities, based on the agreement arrived at
the tripartite dialogue."  They believe that that interim government
should convene a legitimate National Convention.

The Seminar also called upon the junta "to unconditionally cease all
military offensives against the ethnic nationalities, declare a nationwide
cease-fire, release all political prisoners, including Daw Aung San Suu
Kyi."

The ethnic nationality leaders expressed their conviction that
constitutions of the Federal Union and the constituent States must be
drafted by commissions formed "with the approval of the National
Convention" and these constitutions must be adopted through "national
referenda" held in various constituent States before elections can be held
to form Federal and state parliaments which then would elect Federal and
state governments.

A major accomplishment of the Third Ethnic Nationalities Seminar is that
all the organizations were able to agree on a single plan involving
different phases in particular order that Burma needs to go through to
achieve democracy and long-lasting peace.

Another important achievement is the decision to form an "Ethnic
Nationalities Council" which will no doubt contribute greatly in helping
resolve the nagging question of who will represent the ethnic
nationalities in the "Tripartite Dialogue" given the diverse cultural and
socioeconomic backgrounds and political leanings of different ethnic
nationality forces.

The results of the Third Ethnic Nationalities Seminar also put to rest all
speculations that ethnic and democratic forces are at odds over the
military's roadmap.  Like all struggles, anomalies are bound to emerge
from time to time, but the main goal remains as clear as ever for the
democratic and ethnic forces.

Bringing Ethnic Rights to the Fore

In fact, the concept of "tripartite dialogue" first appeared in the United
Nations resolution on Burma in 1994 when it was proposed by the NCGUB
delegation at the United Nations in recognition of the importance of
ethnic nationalities having an equal voice in the decision-making process
of the country.

The ultimate objective of all political organizations in the ethnic and
democracy movements, including the National Coalition Government of the
Union of Burma, has always been the establishment of a democratic federal
union that would guarantee democratic and equal rights to all
nationalities in Burma.

Hence, the clarion call made by the Third Ethnic Nationalities Seminar on
the democratic and ethnic forces, at home and abroad, to unanimously
support and make concerted efforts to realize the aspirations of the
people of the Union of Burma is bound to be answered with a resounding
yes.

The united front of the ethnic and democratic movements of Burma will also
expect world nations, particularly neighboring and regional countries, the
United Nations, and the international community to respond favorably to
this call and help bring democracy to Burma.

NewsDesk is published by the National Coalition Government of the Union of
Burma and the National Council of the Union of Burma
____________________________

Feb 4, IT Business, January/February 2004, Vol. 11 No. 1
Myanmar's e-government is a sham - by Vawn Himmelsbach
http://www.itbusiness.ca/index.asp?theaction=61&lid=1&sid=54719&adBanner=eGovernment

How can e-government work if the government doesn't?

Myanmar has a recent history of bloodshed and one of the worst human
rights records in the world. It's also in the process of developing
e-government.

The "government" -- or militia junta that rules Myanmar by force -- is
rolling out seven e-government pilot projects.

These include e-passport,  e-visa, e-procurement, e-certification
authority, smart cards, smart schools and trade e-data interchange,
according to Myanmar's e-National Task Force (e-NTF). The Southeast Asian
nation bordered by Thailand, China, India and Bangladesh is receiving
assistance from e-ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) to
develop its IT infrastructure. Myanmar was one of the first member
countries to sign the e-ASEAN Framework Agreement initiated at the ASEAN
Summit in Singapore in 2000, and, as such, it's formed the e-NTF to
support its IT development.

The government has also been trying to boost its software industry with
the construction of two ICT Parks -- the first in Yangon, and, most
recently, a second in Mandalay, Myanmar's second-largest city. The
government expects the two parks will help the software industry grow at a
rate of 20 to 30 per cent.

Now, forgive me if I'm just a little bit skeptical about all of this.
Myanmar is a country where the average citizen doesn't even have access to
the Internet. There is no such thing as a public kiosk or Internet cafe
and, where computers are available, access is strictly controlled and
e-mail usage monitored by the government-run ISP. Amongst all these pilot
projects, I don't see anything that will provide ubiquitous computer
access to the general populace.

In this case, if we examine the services the government has chosen to
"e-enable," we can see that they directly benefit the elite -- the
government itself -- and not the average citizen. Take Myanmar's
e-passport project, for example, which uses an RFID tag to verify a
person's identity with technology from Malaysian-based Image Retrieval
Identification System (IRIS). Rather than investing in kiosks to help
citizens access information and services, it appears the government is
putting money into projects that will maintain the status quo and protect
its own interests. E-passports and smart cards mean that Big Brother is
watching; the government can keep better tabs on political dissidents, all
under the guise of technological "development."

It's interesting to note that IRIS Technologies is partly owned by the UN
special envoy to Myanmar, Razali Ismail. He also heads up Leader
Universal, another tech firm looking to expand into Myanmar, and is on the
board of Wah Seong, a Malaysian engineering firm with interests in Yangon.

So what about smart schools, a pilot project that is already operational?
The government claims that 103 schools have an Internet connection --
though Myanmar's Defence Ministry will "censor Web sites as it considers
appropriate."

Obviously, Myanmar is feeling pressure to keep up with the rest of the
world and is jumping on the e-government bandwagon, particularly as a
member of e-ASEAN. But while it's busy keeping up with the Jones', it's
failing to see the true importance and relevance of e-government. While
Myanmar's e-National Task Force is busy drafting cyber laws and forming
"action plans" for e-government implementations in accordance with
e-ASEAN, Myanmar's elected leader remains unable to participate in all of
this. It's been more than 10 years since Aung San Suu Kyi has been
imprisoned or under house arrest -- denied the right to govern the country
as a democratically elected leader.

After being temporarily released from house arrest, her convoy was
attacked last May outside of the capital while she was visiting outposts
of her party, the League for Democracy. The official version reports four
dead and 50 injured. The unoffical version places this number between 70
to 80 dead. Offices of the League for Democracy have been shut down and
opposition leaders detained. As a result, the U.S. has blocked the
transfer of U.S. currency to Burmese banks and banned Burmese imports. The
European Union has imposed tighter sanctions, while Japan -- Myanmar's
largest donor -- has suspended economic aid. This is the political climate
under which Myanmar's so-called government is developing e-government.
e-ASEAN, for its part, makes a point of not interfering in the internal
affairs of its member countries. But it's naive to think IT development
can exist in a vacumn, unaffected by political or economic events.

Does e-government simply mean putting government services online? I see
e-government as a natural evolution of government itself. If there are
inherent faults within a system of government, there will be inherent
faults within e-government. I'd like to think that e-government can
encourage openness and fairness. But how can e-government work if
government doesn't work? It's unlikely, however, that the colonels and
generals that make up Myanmar's "government" will consider this in their
race to keep up with technological developments in the rest of the world.
____________________________

Feb 6, Irrawaddy
An Interview with José Ramos-Horta

“The military in Burma should be aware that it is not going to prevent
forever the birth of democracy and freedom.”

José Ramos-Horta is a Nobel Peace Prize laureate and the Minister for
Foreign Affairs and Cooperation of East Timor. He spoke with The Irrawaddy
in Bangkok, Thailand, after giving a keynote address as part of the
International Peace Foundation’s program, "Bridges—Dialogues Towards a
Culture of Peace."

Question: You have said that you absolutely oppose dictators. What is your
opinion of the generals who rule Burma?

Answer: I remain totally opposed to dictators who violate human rights,
who commit systematic abuse of people’s physical well-being, their
dignity, their right to life, their right to live without fear. This stems
not only from my personal conviction, but I believe it is a sentiment that
is shared by all humanity. A dictatorship in this day and age, in the
twenty-first century, should by now have been completely phased out.

Q: Do the Burmese generals fall into this category?

A: Of course, Burma is a military dictatorship. I do not think that the
military themselves deny this. They are a military dictatorship with no
semblance whatsoever of any participatory democracy, rule of law or
respect for individual liberty. Having said this, it doesn’t mean
necessarily that, for every dictatorship, I advocate one particular
prescription.

In the case of Burma, there were hopes two years ago when Daw Aung San Suu
Kyi was released, together with a number of other members of her party,
the National League for Democracy (NLD), and they established the opening
of NLD offices etc.. Then, out of the blue, in May they ambushed Suu Kyi,
pretending that it was rival gangs, when we all know it was orchestrated
by the military. It reversed a positive trend that was taking place.

 Those who achieve power by force usually want to stay in office. They
want to continue to exercise their power without any constraints. —José
Ramos-Horta

The military in Burma should be aware that it is not going to prevent
forever the birth of democracy and freedom. The longer they delay the more
they create conditions that totally bankrupt the country economically and
socially, and it will take longer later on to rebuild the infrastructure
and build a semblance of a democratic civil society. If there is no
investment there is no renovation of business, industry and agriculture.
So they are setting Myanmar back economically by many, many years. But I
would hope, if they are patriotic, if they are true Burmese, they will
bear that in mind.

At the same time, I would hope that the other side, those who are led by
Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, should be able to walk halfway and reassure the
military that, in the event of these inevitable changes, there will be no
witch-hunting; that the Burmese military should not fear that they will be
prosecuted and jailed. Even if we claim justice for those who have
committed murder and torture, sometimes we have to swallow these bitter
pills and forgive, reconcile and rebuild the country. Because when we talk
about justice, I believe there is no greater justice than the gift of
freedom. Hence, if Burma achieves peace and democracy then everybody
should be able to forgive, because they will achieve the greater justice
and that is their freedom

Q: How do you think the Burmese regime has been able to hold on to power
for so long?

A: They searched for power and when one achieves power—even democratically
elected individuals—they get addicted to power. But, of course, when you
are democratic, you know when your time is up, you accept the people’s
vote and you quit. But those who achieve power by force usually want to
stay in office. They want to continue to exercise their power without any
constraints, without checks and balances. As they commit all sorts of
abuses and engage in all sorts of illicit activities, their greed becomes
greater. But fear also begins to play a part in their wanting to stay on,
because staying in power means preserving their interest and protecting
themselves from persecution.

Q: What is your opinion of the economic sanctions on Burma?

A: I am always ambivalent about economic sanctions. In certain
circumstances, I believe that financial economic sanctions and diplomatic
isolation are the moral equivalent of waging a war. The difference is only
that while a war kills people immediately. Economic and financial
sanctions often cause death, but it is invisible because it happens more
slowly.

The poorest are the ones that are effected most, through impoverishment
and the lack of access to medicine and other basic benefits from the
state. When a regime is punished with sanctions it is not willing to take
money out of its budget for the army to make up for the loss in social
sectors. So there will be less money for education, for poverty
alleviation and so on.

In the case of a country like Burma, I wonder whether these economic
sanctions, particularly the ones imposed on exports, are really not
hurting the very poor in Myanmar.

The international community faces a dilemma in the face of this kind of
regime. Failing all efforts to induce them to change, if we also say no to
sanctions then what is left? On the other hand, I believe that while
sanctions may have a limited impact in punishing a particular regime, it
might punish the common people more and it might not induce the changes.

I would say that active engagement by the international community,
allowing foreign investment and tourism might actually achieve more than
sanctions, in the sense that it opens the country, if they want to
modernize, to industrialize, to create jobs and wealth for its people. The
regime cannot at the same time maintain an authoritarian system. If you
want to modernize, you have to open the doors to the outside the world, to
foreign investment, to international development assistance, to the
participation in these efforts by the international communities. This will
result automatically in one reality: the people on the ground are no
longer alone and at the mercy of the military. You will have dozens—if not
hundreds—of international personnel as witnesses, as pressure.

So I would tend to think that the pro-democracy movement in Myanmar—and
its friends around the world—out of moral concern for the poorest in
Myanmar should rethink the sanctions strategy.

I would not say that the sanctions should be lifted now. But, if there is
some movement towards the release of Suu Kyi, if she and her followers are
released, then there should also be some proportional lifting of
sanctions. The international community, the UN, the EU and the US should
establish a benchmark and for each step Burma takes towards democracy.
There has to be an incentive, either in the form of lifting sanctions or
in the form of development assistance. Agencies like UNICEF, UNDP (UN
Development Program) and the WHO (World Health Organization) should be
allowed and encouraged to go to Myanmar. But, we have to wait and see what
other steps the military are going to take to restore the status quo after
May 2003.

 The Burmese military should show their patriotism and intelligence by
being the ones who orchestrate Burma’s transition to democracy.  —José
Ramos-Horta

Q: Does East Timor have diplomatic relations with Burma?

A: Not yet. We have established political relations with all nine other
countries in Asean. I have visited all of them. The only remaining one to
visit and start diplomatic relations with is Myanmar. I would like to go
whenever the authorities in Myanmar feel it is the proper time. I have
received an invitation from the foreign minister. I readily agreed to
visit but they have been reluctant to suggest a specific date. If they
were to tell me a date, I would make it a priority and cancel any other
prior engagement in order to accommodate a visit.

Q: Would you accept an invitation to Burma even if you would not be
allowed to visit Aung San Suu Kyi?

A: I would still go. Why not? By not going I would not be helping Suu Kyi
become closer to freedom. If I don’t see her again, it’s not the end of
the world. She would understand because she knows from my many years of
commitment that the whole leadership and people of East Timor are with her
and the people of Burma.

Q: In the past you have been critical of Asean because the group was not
supportive of East Timor’s struggle for independence. What position do you
feel Asean should take in regards to Burma?

A: In the past, in regards to East Timor or human rights situations in the
Asean region and beyond, Asean was silent because Asean leaders believe in
the sacrosanct principle of non-interference in the internal affairs of
each country. Asean has changed; notably in the case of Myanmar. Since the
crackdown on the democracy movement in May 2003, Asean leaders have been
very outspoken and have taken initiatives to address the problems in
Myanmar.

Asean countries should share their problems with others, discussing and
seeking help within, and if necessary, beyond the region. Asean countries
should not feel embarrassed and ashamed if there is a problem in a given
country and they are not able to resolve it on their own. Sometimes,
people in a given country are not the best ones to resolve the problems.
It can be useful to bring in a more neutral third party.

Q: Does the UN have a key role to play in this regard?

A: In the case of Burma, the UN should be working in tandem with Asean. It
should be the international agency to guide the dialogue, to mediate or
facilitate, and to help draft the constitution. In the case of Myanmar, I
think the authorities should put their trust in the UN because I believe
the UN can do a very good job in guiding Myanmar to a peaceful transition
towards democracy.

Q: Drawing on your experience in the struggle for East Timor’s
independence, what advice would you be able to offer to Burmese activists
working towards democracy for Burma?

A: Based on our own experience and my observation of the Burmese armed
struggle, my advice is that those of us who fight for freedom or democracy
often fight more among ourselves than we fight the adversary. Factionalism
is one of the most common failings of those in the struggle for democracy
and human rights.

First and foremost, the Burmese should show real maturity, responsibility
and leadership by putting aside their personal egos or minor political
differences. Secondly, I would say seize opportunities as they come. Even
if it is only a little window of opportunity they should seize it.

That’s what we did in the past. We very patiently built up the blocks of
our independence. We did not achieve it overnight. We moved one step at a
time, seizing every opportunity that was offered to us.

Q: Are there any lessons the Burmese regime can learn from events in
Indonesia over the past ten years?

A: The Burmese regime should learn from Indonesia. It should also learn
from Thailand, South Korea and the Philippines. It should learn that it
need not fear democracy. Thailand was a dictatorship and is now a vibrant
democracy with all its imperfections. Yet the military remain as respected
as before, precisely because they have accepted the rule of democracy.

The Burmese should also look at Malaysia, an example where we don’t see
the military day-to-day in the streets and you don’t see four-star
generals in their uniforms on every TV show. Yet they are powerful. The
Burmese military should show their patriotism and intelligence by being
the ones who orchestrate Burma’s transition to democracy. They would be
forever remembered as the fathers of democracy of Burma if they were to
change course.

Q: Are you hopeful that this change of course will come to Burma in the
near future?

A: I’m hopeful because I do not see any alternative. If by 2006, Burma has
not completed the long march to democracy, it should have done so by more
than halfway so that the international community can see that it is
irreversible. If they don’t complete the long road to democracy by 2006,
it will be a monumental public relations fiasco for Asean.

When Burma takes over the leadership of Asean, the international community
will wake up and Asean will find itself in a very delicate situation. So I
hope the Myanmar authorities show respect and sensitivity to their
neighbors.

I hope that China, as a powerful neighbor of Myanmar, and a country that
has a lot of interest in the stability of this region, would play a
significant role. China has some shortcomings itself with regards to
democracy but I believe the Chinese are very pragmatic and they have shown
themselves to be friends of the region and Asean. Therefore, I believe
they would be prepared to help. Asean and China should work together to
encourage the military in Myanmar to have a clear timeframe, a road map
with a deadline, benchmarks, and a final goal. The goal is free and
democratic elections under UN supervision within a period of two to three
years.
___________________________

Feb 9, Irrawaddy
Burmese Artists on Display - by Kyaw Zwa Moe

Three Burmese artists displayed their works at an art exhibition that
opened over the weekend in the northern Thai city of Chiang Mai.

The art exhibition, titled Identity versus Globalization?, draws together
60 artists from all ten Southeast Asian countries. It is sponsored by the
Berlin-based Heinrich Boell Foundation and will run until February 27 at
Chiang Mai University’s Art Museum.

“Self Portrait on the Way to Global Nothingness”

Burmese artist Aye Ko displayed his "Self Portrait on the Way to Global
Nothingness," a media instillation project inspired by the Buddhist
philosophical principle "all life is suffering."

In a book distributed at the exhibition, Aye Ko wrote that love, material
desires, passion, greed, jealousy and other negative deeds are individual
causes of suffering. He added: "The only way to overcome this suffering is
to let go and reach nirvana, the state of globalized nothingness."

Burmese artists Myint Swe and Myint Myint Tin also showed their individual
works, with such titles as "Development is a Lie," "The Gap on the Map,"
and "New York."

In addition to the art exhibit, the Heinrich Boell Foundation also
organized theatrical displays and performances, as well as a two-day forum
about globalization. The artists, scholars and activists discussed the
political dynamics of globalization and indentity.

After the exhibition closes in Chiang Mai, it will move to the National
Gallery in Bangkok from May 8-28 before traveling to the Dahlm Museum in
Berlin in October.
___________________________

PRESS RELEASE

Feb 9, Nation Coalition Government of the Union of Burma
Ethnic Leaders Lauded for 'Common Approach' Toward Democracy, Federalism

The National Coalition Government of the Union of Burma (NCGUB) warmly
welcomes the resolutions passed by the Third Ethnic Nationalities Seminar
held recently in Kawthoolei inside Burma which portray a unified stand by
the 61 delegates and observers from the ethnic nationality alliances,
parties, and organizations that political problems in Burma must be
resolved through "tripartite dialogue" (involving the representatives of
ethnic nationalities, the democracy movement led by the National League
for Democracy, and the military) and the establishment of a "true Federal
Union".

The ethnic leaders are also convinced that the "seven-phase roadmap" of
the ruling generals "would not lead to democratization and establishment
of a federal union but only sustain a military dictatorship in the
country".  They noted that "lasting peace and stability, can be gained
only through the tripartite dialogue process demanded under the UN
resolutions" and therefore urged the generals for an unconditional
cessation of all military offensives against the ethnic nationalities, the
declaration of a nationwide cease-fire, and the release of "all political
prisoners, including Daw Aung San Suu Kyi", to hold "tripartite dialogue
at the earliest date."  Among other things, the leaders also called for:

--- The formation of "an interim government" comprising representatives,
proportionally, of the State Peace and Development Council, the NLD and
other political parties victorious in the 1990 elections, and ethnic
nationalities, based on the agreement arrived at as a result of the
tripartite dialogue"

--- The convening of "a legitimate National Convention" by the "interim
government" so that the process of constitution drafting can be initiated
for the "Federal Union and the constituent States"

--- The adoption of those constitutions through "national referendum"

--- The holding of elections at national and state levels

--- The formation of the "Federal and State Governments" under the newly
adopted constitutions.



What is most important about the decisions taken by the ethnic leaders is
that all mainstream ethnic and democracy movements inside and outside
Burma now have a common approach towards achieving democracy and
federalism. The stand taken by the ethnic leaders at the Seminar is also
identical to the position of the NCGUB and the National Council of the
Union of Burma (an umbrella alliance of ethnic and democracy organizations
and parties).

The NCGUB, therefore, calls on world nations, particularly neighboring and
regional countries, the United Nations, and the international community to
respond favorably to the clarion call by the Third Ethnic Nationalities
Seminar to "unanimously support and to make concerted effort to fulfill
the aspirations of the people of the Union of Burma" and bring democracy
and human rights to the country.
___________________________

Feb 7, US Campaign for Burma
US Campaign for Burma Recognizes Burma's Ethnic Nationalities' Rejection
of Regime's Roadmap

Contact:  Jeremy Woodrum (202) 223-0300, (202) 246-7924 cell

(Washington, DC) A leading United States-based activist group, the US
Campaign for Burma, today recognized the public rejection by Burma's major
ethnic groups of a deeply flawed "roadmap" to democracy promised by the
Southeast Asian country's ruling military regime.  After the conference
"Burma's Ethnic National Seminar", which was held in an area of Burma
controlled by the Karen National Union, the meeting of ethnic
nationalities called instead for a "tripartite" dialogue between the
military regime, National League for Democracy, and ethnic groups.

The fact that the seminar was held in Law-Hkee-La Camp in the Karen State,
an area not controlled by the military regime, and organized by the
independent Ethnic Nationalities Solidarity and Cooperation Committee
(ENSCC), demonstrates that the regime has vastly overstated ethnic support
for its roadmap.  Sixty-one delegates from 25 ethnic nationality groups,
including two groups that have entered into cease-fire agreements with the
regime, attended the six-day seminar.

In a statement, seminar participants said, "The seminar observed that the
[regime's] 7-stage 'road map' and the attempt to reconvene its national
convention, temporarily suspended in 1996, would not lead to
democratization and establishment of a federal union but only sustain a
military
dictatorship in the country."

In addition to calling for tripartite dialogue, the group also called for
the formation of an interim government designed to facilitate a "real and
legitimate national convention" that would result in state and federal
constitutions.   They also called upon the military regime to stop
military
offensives against ethnic nationalities, declare a nationwide cease-fire,
and release all political prisoners including 1991 Nobel Peace Prize
recipient Daw Aung San Suu Kyi.  She has been in detention since May 30th,
2003, when regime agents attacked her convoy, killing scores of members of
her political party.

The politically courageous statement by Burma's ethnic groups comes as the
ruling regime has claimed it maintains ethnic support for its proposed
road map and national convention.  Regime media outlets inside Burma
regularly trumpet the supposed relationship between Khin Nyunt, the
regime's notorious chief of military intelligence, and ethnic groups.  In
reality, the regime maintains its closest relationships with the United Wa
State Army (UWSA) and the Myanmar Nationalities Democratic Forces (MNDF). 
Both the UWSA and MNDF produce and traffic significant amounts of drugs,
while UWSA leader Wai Hsueh Kang is wanted by the US, which is offering a
$2 million reward for his capture.

The result of the seminar echoes earlier statements by other ethnic
nationalities.  In September 2003, Rangoon-based ethnic nationality
leaders from the United Nationalities League for Democracy (UNLD), a
coalition of 20 ethnic nationality parties, and the United Nationalities
Alliance (UNA), coalition of nine ethnic political parties, rejected the
regime's roadmap and instead called for tripartite dialogue.  The UNLD and
UNA won a combined 67 seats in Burma's last democratic election, which was
annulled by the military regime.

"The message from the seminar should be a wake-up call for the
international community and the United Nations, especially UN special
envoy Razali  Ismail," says Aung Din, policy director of US Campaign for
Burma and a former political prisoner. "If the regime wants to talk about
a transition
to democracy, they need to spend less time trying to sell their roadmap to
foreign leaders and more time engaging the democracy movement in
tripartite dialogue."