BurmaNet News October 29, 2004

[Editor]

October 29, 2004, Issue # 2590

INSIDE BURMA
AP: Myanmar's new prime minister makes official debut
AFP: Myanmar strongman vows to bring democracy, crush anti-Indian rebels
Kyodo News: Myanmar's new PM vows to fight human trafficking

ON THE BORDER
Thai News Service: Thai army patrols border with Myanmar in fight against
drug smuggling

BUSINESS / MONEY
Upstream: MRPL hopes Burmese drill drive will bear fruit

REGIONAL
AFP: Six Asian nations sign landmark human trafficking pact
The Times of India: Left undecided over protest plan
Indian Express: On Myanmar, Govt tells Left to get real

INTERNATIONAL
Reuters: UN expert urges Myanmar to end limits on politics
AP: US asks India to convey rights concerns to Myanmar military chief
Journal Gazette: Burmese activists to meet at IPFW

OPINION / OTHER
Irrawaddy: Burma’s hardliners win the day
Time Asia Magazine: A Purge in Burma
______________________________________
INSIDE BURMA

October 29, Associated Press
Myanmar's new prime minister makes official debut

Myanmar's new prime minister, Lt. Gen. Soe Win, made his official debut
Friday at a regional meeting where he vowed to break the "vicious cycle"
of human trafficking.

The meeting in Myanmar's capital, Yangon, is the first-ever
ministerial-level effort by the six countries along the Mekong river --
China, Cambodia, Myanmar, Thailand, Laos and Vietnam -- to tackle human
trafficking.

"We can and will show the world and the traffickers that we mean business.
With our resolve, we will break the vicious cycle of trafficking in the
region," said Soe Win in the opening address at the Coordinated Mekong
Ministerial Initiative against Trafficking.

The Mekong region, home to about 240 million people, is plagued by porous
borders and areas of dire poverty which breed trafficking of laborers and
women for the sex industry.

"I would like to reaffirm our sincere commitment to translate our words of
commitment into actions that would make a dent in the ever-increasing
crime of human trafficking in the region and the world," said Soe Win, who
became prime minister in a surprise Cabinet shake-up last week.

He praised Thailand's measures to register illegal migrant workers, many
of whom come from neighboring Myanmar.

"This effort created a win-win situation for all -- workers, employers and
the overall economy," Soe Win said. "This bold step sets a good example to
many other countries of destination."

Delegates at the regional meeting were expected on Friday to sign a
memorandum of understanding to improve regional cooperation in operations
against human trafficking.

______________________________________

October 29, Agence France Presse
Myanmar strongman vows to bring democracy, crush anti-Indian rebels

Myanmar's military strongman Than Shwe Friday wrapped up a visit to India
with a pledge to bring democracy to his secretive state and said the junta
will not let rebels against Indian rule operate from its soil.

The comments came at the end of the first visit by a Myanmar head of state
in 24 years, and just nine days after the sacking of its pro-reform prime
minister.

"The Myanmar side reiterated its strong commitment to building a modern
democracy state suited to Myanmar's needs and conditions and briefed the
Indian leadership about the process of national reconciliation," a joint
statement said.

The two sides also agreed to boost bilateral trade while Myanmar invited
Indian investment into a variety of sectors including energy and health.

The general earlier in the week briefed Indian Prime Minister Manmohan
Singh on the ongoing national consultation process to cobble together a
new constitution which promises to bring Myanmar back under civilian
control.

The briefing, however, came a week after Than Shwe fired prime minister
and fellow junta member Khin Nyunt, who was behind the nation's "roadmap
to democracy".

Than Shwe also travelled to India's software hub of Bangalore and the seat
of Buddhism in the eastern pilgrimage town of Bodh Gaya during his
five-day visit.

The two sides during talks in New Delhi agreed on regular exchange of
high-level visits as well as military-to-military contacts, which analysts
say is part of India's plans to improve its ties with the country with
which it shares a largely unpatrolled porous border.

The statement said Than Shwe and the Indian leaders agreed on the economic
development of the two countries' common borders, currently a hotbed of
cross-border drug trafficking and weapons smuggling.

"At the same time, the two sides agreed that maintenance of peace and
security along border areas was an essential pre-requisite to successful
implementation of cross-border projects and to bringing about economic
prosperity in the area.

"The Myanmar side reiterated that it would not allow insurgent activities
against India from its soil. Both sides agreed to take necessary steps to
prevent cross-border crimes, including drug trafficking, arms
smuggling...," it said.

New Delhi says anti-Indian rebel groups use camps in Bangladesh, Bhutan
and Myanmar to launch hit-and-run attacks in six of India's seven
northeastern states where militancy has claimed more than 50,000 lives
since the country's 1947 independence.

The general's visit is the first to India in 24 years by a head of state
of the secretive country formerly known as Burma, which has been under
military rule since 1962.

During his visit, the United States urged India to convey to Than Shwe
international concerns over human right abuses in his country.

"We hope that the government of India will convey to Than Shwe during his
visit concerns shared by the international community," State Department
spokesman Richard Boucher said Thursday.

The junta crushed a peaceful uprising in 1988 led by pro-democracy leader
Aung San Suu Kyi, killing hundreds of people. She has been under
intermittent house arrest for years.

India once vocally backed Aung San Suu Kyi but under its "Look East"
policy launched in the early 1990s, it has been wooing Myanmar's military
leadership and promoting trade and investment.

India is also home to a large number of pro-democracy Myanmarese nationals.

____________________________________

October 29, Kyodo News
Myanmar's new PM vows to fight human trafficking

Myanmar's new prime minister, Lt. Gen. Soe Win, in his debut at a regional
meeting Friday promised to join with other regional countries in breaking
the ''vicious cycle of human trafficking.''

Speaking at the opening of a meeting of the Coordinated Mekong Ministerial
Initiative against Trafficking, COMMIT, in Yangon on Friday, Soe Win
reaffirmed Myanmar's commitment against human trafficking and said his
country is willing work with the region to ''make a dent in the
ever-increasing crime of human trafficking.''

''We can and we will show the world and challenge the traffickers that we
mean business. With our resolve, we will break the vicious cycle of
trafficking in the region,'' Soe Win said.

COMMIT, the first-ever ministerial level meeting attended by ministers
from six countries along the Mekong river -- China, Cambodia, Myanmar,
Thailand, Laos and Vietnam -- will sign a memorandum of understanding to
improve cooperation among the countries in conducting anti-human
trafficking operations.

Soe Win hailed the meeting as a ''significant milestone'' that ''marked a
concerted and coordinated'' effort by the governments of the Greater
Mekong sub-region to ''unitedly stem the tide of human trafficking.''

According to official figures, Myanmar arrested 795 human traffickers in
412 cases between July 2002 and June 2004, in which 335 offenders were
imprisoned.

The COMMIT meeting was jointly organized by Myanmar's Home Affairs
Ministry and the U.N. Inter-Agency Project on Human Trafficking in the
Greater Mekong Sub-Region.

The Greater Mekong Sub region has a population of around 240 million
people sharing long, porous borders.

Soe Win became prime minister after Gen. Khin Nyunt was sacked two weeks
ago by Myanmar's junta for failing to stem corruption.
____________________________________
ON THE BORDER

October 29, Thai News Service
Thai army patrols border with Myanmar in fight against drug smuggling

The commander of the Thai Army Region 3 said on Tuesday that he would call
for the deployment of more troops to patrol against drug smuggling along
the northwestern border.

Lieutenant General Picharnmet Muangmanee, the regional army commander who
oversees national security along the northern and northwestern border with
Myanmar, explained that the army has been surveying the border areas by
air, and could see that opium growing has returned in a wider scale near
the Myanmar border.

He said the findings have prompted the army to take a preventive position
against cross-bordering trafficking.

The regional army commander also fears that a vast amount of amphetamine
tablets hidden along Myanmar's border would spill over to Thailand, at any
time suppression on Thai soil is relaxed.

However, it is not only cross border drug trafficking that has worried the
Thai army. Since Myanmar changed its prime minister, Thai soldiers have
been put on alert to keep its border, especially in Ban Mae Sam Leb of Mae
Hong Son province sealed off and safe, for fear of possible renewed
fighting between Myanmar's military and its ethnic minority rebels.
_____________________________________
BUSINESS / MONEY

October 29, Upstream
MRPL hopes Burmese drill drive will bear fruit

Independent MRPL is aiming to boost oil production at its Mann field
onshore Burma via a combined exploration and development drilling program
targeting deeper formations.

The Singapore-registered company will spend a reported $9 million on the
latest program on its performance compensation contract (PPC).

A 3D seismic survey was acquired over the entire contract area in 1998 and
to date this has identified 30 prospects or leads.

The operator believes there is significant exploration potential of the
flanks of the structure and also in Mann's untested deeper horizons at
sub-surface depths of below 8000 feet.

Unproven resources in the deeper formations are estimated at more than 140
million barrels of oil.

The drilling program will include the reopening of shut-in wells and the
servicing of equipment in existing producers.

MPRL has already invested close to $75 million in the PPC, where Mann is
located about 560 kilometres north of the capital Rangoon.

Mann, which was discovered in 1970, recorded peak production of 24,500
barrels per day nine years later. However, output has since dwindled to
about one tenth of this as only 234 of the 650 wells on the field are
producing with the remainder being shut-in.

The field also produces 3.6 million cubic feet per day of gas.

While these amounts are small, the severe production decline at the field
has been arrested since MPRL took over full operational responsibility
from Baker Hughes and incremental oil production - from which the indie
gets its revenues - has almost doubled to 1350 bpd.

The 15-year PCC that MPRL operates jointly with state-owned Myanmar Oil &
Gas Enterprise, expires in 2014.

Burma currently produces just 11,500 bpd of oil from its onshore acreage
and this is transported by pipeline and barge to local refineries.
_____________________________________
REGIONAL

October 29, Agence France Presse
Six Asian nations sign landmark human trafficking pact

China and five Southeast Asian nations on Friday signed a landmark accord
here to fight the modern day slavery of human trafficking in the region.

The United Nations-brokered agreement between Cambodia, China, Laos,
Thailand, Vietnam and host Myanmar is the first of its kind in the world,
UN officials have said.

"We will challenge the traffickers that we mean business," Myanmar's newly
installed premier, Lieutenant General Soe Win, told the representatives to
the Coordinated Mekong Ministerial Initiative against Trafficking
(COMMIT).

"We will break the vicious cycle of trafficking in the region."

The memorandum of understanding lays out areas of cooperation "to combat
all aspects of human trafficking," the grouping, which includes UN
agencies, said in a statement at the conclusion of the one-day meeting.

The plan is expected to be in place in the first quarter of 2005.

Some 800,000 men, women and children are estimated to be trafficked
annually across borders worldwide in a billion-dollar illicit trade. Most
victims of trafficking are severely exploited and many are sexually
abused.

Human trafficking is considered a surging crisis in Asia, and several
countries of the region have been strongly criticized for failing to
recognize the scale of the problem.

"This gathering today underscores the Greater Mekong Sub-Region's
commitment to addressing a transnational problem that has serious national
implications," said Charles Petrie, the UN's resident coordinator in
Myanmar.

In July the UN warned that the cross-border framework could be hampered by
the "two-edged sword" of socio-economic development in Southeast Asia,
which is shifting towards greater mobility for the purposes of promoting
economic opportunities and jobs. The result can often be illicit
trafficking of people and drugs, it said.

A senior officials meeting on the anti-trafficking pact is scheduled for
either next March or May in Hanoi.

Thailand has been acknowledged as the main "destination" country for
migrant workers in the region, where an estimated 1.5 million legal as
well as illegal workers from neighboring countries head.

_____________________________________

October 29, The Times of India
Left undecided over protest plan

Partners of the ruling Left Front in Kolkata are on a sticky wicket over
Myanmar General Than Shwe's two-day visit to the city, which starts on
Thursday.

Though they oppose military dictatorship in Myanmar, the parties and their
student wings are finding it difficult to stage a protest during Shwe's
visit to Bengal.

Unlike in Delhi, the plan for exiled Myanmarese students to stage a
demonstration in Kolkata too during Shwe's visit might have to be
cancelled, All Burma Students League general secretary Kim indicated from
Delhi over the phone on Wednesday.

"In Delhi, Left student and youth organisations like SFI, AISF and DYFI
had supported us. In Kolkata, we are facing an additional difficulty.

One of our comrades in the city died yesterday." SFI's state president
Sudip Sengupta said support had been extended to ABSL in Delhi as both the
student bodies were members of International Union of Students
Associations.

But, SFI had not taken part in Delhi's protest. "We extend support to the
movement for democracy in Myanmar. But, as our neighbors, we also want
cordial relations with that country. Particularly, the Myanmarese rulers
can extend a helping hand in removing camps of North-east militants that
are there in Myanmar," he said.

Forward Bloc and RSP leaders pleaded that the time was too short to
organise a protest rally.

"Being a festive season, it is difficult to organise a protest at short
notice," RSP leader Kshiti Goswami said. The Centre should make
restoration of democracy a pre-condition for furthering trade relations
between the two countries, he said. "Being a bigger nation, India should
advise it on restoration of democratic rights."

Forward Bloc leader Ashok Ghosh said his party had learnt about Shwe's
visit to the city at the eleventh hour. "If we had known earlier, we could
have debated on the issue." In any case, Shwe is coming to Kolkata |on a
"personal visit", to see Victoria Memorial. "He is not on a political
assignment," he said.

Kim, however, said there is little hope the Myanmar government will take
steps to evict militants from the Indo-Myanmar border area. For, a section
of the Myanmarese security forces benefits from the presence of cash-rich
militants.

_____________________________________

October 29, Indian Express
On Myanmar, Govt tells Left to get real

The Government today bluntly told the Left that it could not afford to
alienate Myanmar by raking up the restoration-of-democracy issue at a time
when China was building even better ties with Yangon. Left leaders who met
PM Manmohan Singh over breakfast were told that the relatively new
Kunming-Mandalay road was bringing the Chinese closer to the military
rulers in politically isolated Myanmar.

Left leaders yesterday raised the "politically correct issue'' of Aung San
Suu Kyi continuing to be under house arrest and demanded that New Delhi
tell the Yangon regime to restore democracy soon. But at this morning's
meeting at 7 Race Course Road, National Security Advisor J N Dixit
reminded Left leaders that it was the Congress government of the Nineties
that had bestowed the prestigious Jawaharlal Nehru Award on Aung San Suu
Kyi. The sympathy for Suu Kyi remained but the Government, Dixit pointed
out, had to do business with Yangon for security and strategic reasons.

New Delhi has been watching the expanding Sino-Myanmar relationship. Three
days ago, a Chinese oil major signed an oil exploration contract. In March
this year, Chinese Vice-Premier Wu Yi visited Myanmar and signed a
detailed agreement, their bilateral cooperation spanning over 20 sectors.
According to Left leaders, Dixit drove home the point that better
relations with Yangon were important from the security point of view given
the situation in the North-East.

On helping out with elections in Iraq, the Prime Minister reassured the
Left leaders that there was no question of sending over Election
Commission officials to Baghdad to help train the Iraqi election
personnel. Dixit said that the Left needn't raise the issue because the
Government had no proposal to send any EC personnel to the war-torn
country.

The Government may arrange to have Iraqi poll personnel brought here for
training. Left leaders were, however, told that it could become necessary
for a part of the electoral management to be done from Amman in Jordan. In
that case, EC personnel would be dispatched to Jordan. The Left did not
really mind that. Dixit also told Left leaders that it could become
imperative to hand over money to the UN for the international fund to
bring democracy to Baghdad. He said the UN had asked for US $10 million
but India, for the time being, may send US $5 million.
_____________________________________
INTERNATIONAL

October 28, Reuters
UN expert urges Myanmar to end limits on politics

National reconciliation and a shift to democracy in Myanmar are impossible
unless the military government frees all political prisoners and lifts its
restrictions on political leaders and parties, a U.N. human rights
investigator said on Thursday.

While world attention is riveted on the recent ouster of Myanmar's prime
minister, "let us be reminded of the broader picture of the human rights
situation in the whole country, which shows no improvement," rights expert
Paulo Sergio Pinheiro told a General Assembly committee.

The government's openness to political change was thrown into question
earlier this month when Prime Minister Khin Nyunt, who had struggled since
his appointment last year to implement a promised "road map to democracy,"
was put under house arrest and replaced by Lt. Gen. Soe Win, a
conservative.

Pinheiro, a Brazilian who has visited Myanmar six times in his four years
on the job but has not been allowed in this year, said he intended to
pursue his work "with or without access to the country."

But Myanmar envoy Kyaw Win said Pinheiro's current request to visit was
"under consideration" even though past U.N. resolutions criticizing his
country's rights record had been "unbalanced, biased, politically
motivated and based on unfounded and unproven allegations."

The government also intended to reconvene a national convention that had
begun drawing up a new constitution for the country, "despite the recent
change of the prime minister," Win added, without saying when.

The convention was adjourned indefinitely in July. The United Nations has
previously complained that government plans for democracy will fail unless
opposition parties such as Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi and her
National League for Democracy party are part of the process.

Allowing political parties and their leaders including Suu Kyi, who has
been under house arrest since May 2003, to freely operate would greatly
help the democracy process, he added.

Over 1,300 political prisoners remain in prison, some of them held even
after their sentences have expired, and "the situation with regard to the
exercise of fundamental human rights and freedoms in Myanmar has not
substantially changed and may have even worsened," Pinheiro told the
panel.

The military has ruled the former Burma since 1962 and refused to hand
over power to Suu Kyi after her National League for Democracy party won a
1990 election.

_____________________________________

October 29, Agence France Presse
US asks India to convey rights concerns to Myanmar military chief

The United States urged India Thursday to convey to Myanmar's military
strongman Than Shwe, who is on an official visit to New Delhi,
international concerns over human right abuses in his country.

"We hope that the government of India will convey to Than Shwe during his
visit concerns shared by the international community," State Department
spokesman Richard Boucher said.

He said the Indian government was aware of the concerns, including failure
of Than Shwe's regime to free political prisoners.

Among those detained are democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi, whose National
League for Democracy (NLD) overwhelmingly won 1990 elections later
annulled by the military, which has run the country since a 1962 coup.

The United States has accused the junta of carrying out a brutal attack on
Aung San Suu Kyi and her convoy on May 30, 2003, which led to her arrest.

Boucher said Indian authorities should also convey to Than Shwe concerns
over the failure of his regime to engage in a meaningful dialogue with
other political and ethnic leaders to achieve national reconciliation.

The junta should ensure that the fundamental human rights of the people of
Myanmar are respected, he said.

Than Shwe has been holding a so-called national convention to frame the
country's constitution but has left out the NLD, whose offices have been
shut nationwide.

The general arrived in New Delhi last Sunday with eight cabinet ministers
on a six-day visit, the first to India in 24 years by a head of state from
the impoverished Southeast Asian nation.

On Wednesday, a US senator said it was appalling that India, the world's
largest democracy, was embracing "one of the world's most repressive and
illegitimate military juntas."

India once vocally backed Aung San Suu Kyi but under its "Look East"
policy launched in the early 1990s, it has been wooing Myanmar's military
leadership and promoting trade and investment.

The United States has imposed trade and investment sanctions against Myanmar.

_____________________________________

October 28, Journal Gazette
Burmese activists to meet at IPFW

Local Burmese will meet fellow expatriates from the United States and
other countries in Fort Wayne this weekend to solidify unity among
democratic forces and discuss strategy to fight against the long-standing
Myanmar military regime.

The second-annual conference hosted by Fort Wayne Burmese will begin
Saturday at Indiana University-Purdue University Fort Wayne.

Maung Maung Soe, coordinator of the conference, said he hopes the
conference will set a common ground for different organizations and people
from as far away as Thailand, Japan, the United Kingdom and Canada.

"Every Burmese national is responsible for acting against the military
regime," he said. "We want this conference to umbrella democratic forces
and individuals and future democratic process."

The country has been under military rule for the past 40 years. The
military regime crushed a mass uprising in 1988 and negated the 1990
election in which the National League for Democracy, led by Aung San Suu
Kyi, won a landslide victory.

The first conference was organized to counter the "roadmap to democracy,"
the current government's version of a democratization plan issued in
August 2003. The opposition called that plan a "sham."

This year, the activists will re-evaluate their strategy under new
circumstances involving a power shift within the military junta.

The Myanmar government issued a statement saying Prime Minister Gen. Khin
Nyunt was "permitted to retire for health reasons." Khin Nyunt was taken
into custody late Monday and charged with corruption, officials in
neighboring Thailand said.

The sacking was seen as a move by Senior Gen. Than Shwe, chairman of the
military junta, to consolidate control over the leadership and promote
military hardliners.

"The new leadership is worse than Khin Nyunt, but we don't believe any
military leader," said Kyaw Thet, another conference coordinator.

Other Burmese dissidents agree.

"It's a power struggle among them. All of them were military generals and
dictators," said Win Khet, the chairman of National League for Democracy
chapter in Thai-Myanmar border area. He is in Fort Wayne to attend the
conference.

"We'll continue what we have been doing," he said.

Lt. Gen. Thein Sein, one of the military regime's most powerful leaders,
said Saturday the government would press ahead with a roadmap to democracy
after the sacking of the premier.

Tin Htway, a Fort Wayne Burmese activist, is concerned the junta will
water down the roadmap further.

"They may not change the backbone of the roadmap but may change the
skeleton," he said. "They may delay the process shown on the roadmap as
late as possible."

Maung Maung Soe said the Fort Wayne Burmese will continue challenging the
international community to pressure the Myanmar regime.

Recently, Fort Wayne Burmese activists marched 180 miles from Albany,
N.Y., to New York City, then protested with a hunger strike in front of
U.N. headquarters for 13 days during the international organization's
general assembly.

"We have to keep struggling in every possible way," Maung Maung Soe said.

The three-day conference will begin with a welcoming speech by Connell P.
Nelson, IPFW director of International Services, at Neff Hall at 10 a.m.
Saturday.
_____________________________________
OPINION / OTHER

October 29, Irrawaddy
Burma’s hardliners win the day--Win Min

The timing of Prime Minister Khin Nyunt’s purge may have been a surprise
to many. But in recent times there have been clear signs in Rangoon that
Burma’s top general Than Shwe was trying to consolidate his power and
reduce Khin Nyunt’s influence.

The top three generals in the junta had certainly appeared united. They
seemed to believe that if they didn’t stick together, they would all fall.
This forced them to try to smooth over their differences on many issues,
especially on how to deal with the opposition, international pressure and
economic reform.

Yet, it has been no secret that Than Shwe, junta chairman and
commander-in-chief of the armed forces, and Deputy Sr-Gen Maung Aye, the
army commander, were hardliners, whereas Gen Khin Nyunt, the military
intelligence chief, was willing to compromise on certain issues.

Consolidating Power

Than Shwe’s move against Khin Nyunt last week means he now feels strong
enough to go it alone. No more balancing act with Khin Nyunt.

In the past, power was shared between Khin Nyunt’s faction and that of the
army commander. Although Khin Nyunt had no infantry troops directly under
him, some of the regional commanders were close to him.

But in the 2001 reshuffle, Than Shwe strengthened his power over the army
and appointed his men to many regional commander posts. For instance, the
former Rangoon Division commander who was regarded as close to Khin Nyunt
was kicked upstairs and replaced by a new commander who is loyal to Than
Shwe.

Since then, Than Shwe seems to have grown tired of having to listen to
different opinions. With Khin Nyunt out, he no longer has to argue over
how to handle Aung San Suu Kyi and other issues.

Moreover, Than Shwe has become increasingly unhappy with the fact that the
international community saw Khin Nyunt as the man they could deal with.
Than Shwe, like Burma’s kings in the past, sought to remove his rivals
from power and influence.

Tables Turned

This has been his strategy all along. Last year he made Khin Nyunt Prime
Minister. Although some analysts interpreted this as a promotion, it was a
deliberate move to reduce Khin Nyunt’s influence—at the time Khin Nyunt
lost his position as Secretary-1 in the military council, the highest
decision-making body. But Than Shwe didn’t yet dare remove him as the
military intelligence chief.

Khin Nyunt must have understood what was happening to him as he himself
had used the same strategy before. In 1997, he orchestrated the sacking of
three powerful former regional commanders—Kyaw Ba, Tun Kyi, and Myint
Aung—by first kicking them upstairs to ministerial posts, where they would
have no troops underneath them.   Corruption charges were later used as a
pretext to remove them.

Now that Than Shwe has moved against Khin Nyunt, he is also targeting the
spymaster’s base—military intelligence. Khin Nyunt loyalists have been
sacked and the military intelligence branch is being restructured to bring
it fully under the army’s control.

To view complete story please go to
http://www.irrawaddy.org/aviewer.asp?a=4096&z=29

_____________________________________

October 25, Time Asia Magazine
A Purge in Burma--Larry Jagan

If Burma's military junta had an incrementally gentler side, it was
personified by General Khin Nyunt. No one would call him a liberal in the
Western sense—he headed the dictatorship's military intelligence
service—but diplomats from the outside world considered him more pragmatic
and less xenophobic than the country's paramount leader, General Than
Shwe.

Khin Nyunt steered the country into the Association of Southeast Asian
Nations (ASEAN) in 1997. (Burma is set to chair the regional grouping in
2006.) He succeeded in brokering cease-fires with 17 of Burma's armed,
rebellious tribes. And when he was elevated to Prime Minister 14 months
ago, he announced a "road map to democracy" that envisaged a new
constitution and the first national elections since 1990, and a possible
reconciliation with detained Nobel Peace Prize winner Aung San Suu Kyi.

The junta barely made a step down that path to peace, but Suu Kyi told
U.N. envoy to Burma Razali Ismail in March that Khin Nyunt was someone she
could deal with. After that endorsement, some residents of Rangoon started
calling the Prime Minister the "second most popular figure in Burma"—after
Suu Kyi.

It's not wise to get too popular when you share power with a bunch of hard
men—and few come harder than the generals who run Burma. In July, Foreign
Minister Win Aung told ASEAN officials at a regional gathering in Jakarta
that Khin Nyunt was losing a struggle within the State Peace and
Development Council (SPDC). "He is in a dangerous position," said Win
Aung, according to officials privy to the conversation. "Khin Nyunt may
have to flee the country. If that happens, I will have to flee with him."

They didn't leave fast enough: last month, Win Aung was replaced as
Foreign Minister and is believed to be under house arrest. And last week,
the Prime Minister was arrested by the army at Rangoon airport shortly
after he arrived from Mandalay, where he had spent the day touring
development projects. Burma's state-controlled media announced that Khin
Nyunt had been permitted to "retire for health reasons." Khin Nyunt is now
under house arrest in Rangoon; last Thursday, Burma's new Foreign Minister
told diplomats that he had actually been removed on suspicion of
"corruption."

If history is any guide, the Prime Minister's career is over and any hope
of Suu Kyi's being released soon has been snuffed. It was Khin Nyunt who
helped negotiate Suu Kyi's release in 2002 from her second stint under
house arrest.

She was detained again in May 2003—following an attack by
government-sponsored goons on her convoy, in which scores of people were
reported injured and killed—and is back under house arrest. Last week,
Than Shwe replaced Khin Nyunt with Lieut. General Soe Win, a known
hard-liner believed to have ordered the brutal attack on Suu Kyi's
followers in May. "The removal of Khin Nyunt demonstrates that Than Shwe
wasn't interested in 99% of power," says a senior Western diplomat in
Bangkok. "He wanted 100%."

Than Shwe's power play is unlikely to please Burma's neighbors. While the
U.S. and many other Western countries have persisted with economic
sanctions, Japan, China, India and Thailand have actively pursued a policy
of engagement with Burma, encouraging closer economic ties and increased
trade in the hope that the generals would gradually ease their grip on
society. Khin Nyunt traveled frequently, and appeared to accept that Burma
needed to reduce its diplomatic isolation to avoid economic collapse.

He was admired abroad for granting regional autonomy to the armed rebel
groups that live along Burma's borders with its neighbors—deals that might
now unravel. "China will be furious," says Panitan Wattanayagorn, a
security and defense analyst at Chulalongkorn University in Bangkok. "They
want stability along their borders, no matter what the cost. But Than Shwe
has shown he doesn't care much about stability, just regime survival."
India's porous border with Burma, which is exploited by insurgents on both
sides, is bound to be discussed during Than Shwe's five-day visit to New
Delhi this week.

On Friday, Than Shwe announced that Khin Nyunt had also been sacked as
head of military intelligence and its operations closed down. Several
hundred intelligence officers were also detained throughout the country,
and businesses under military-intelligence control, including the
lucrative black markets on the borders, have been shuttered or taken over
by the junta.

The power struggle barely registered among average Burmese. Life in
Rangoon was normal, except for a slightly higher number of troops on the
streets. "Nothing really changed in Burma," says a Western diplomat. "The
reforms were only ever cosmetic, and done for an international audience."
What Khin Nyunt's arrest really demonstrates is that the only real threat
to the junta's survival comes from within its own ranks.