BurmaNet News, October 30-November 1, 2004

[Editor]

October 30 – November 1, 2004, Issue # 2591

INSIDE BURMA
Xinhua: Myanmar official newspaper hails stronger ties with India
AFP: Myanmar's new hardline PM to make first foreign trip to China

BUSINESS / MONEY
Xinhua: Myanmar eyes good prospects of trade ties with China

REGIONAL
Bangkok Post: Human trafficking: Laos to join fight against people trade
OAPNA: Bhutan-type operation against insurgents in Myanmar likely Ajay Kaul
New Straits Times: Refugee status soon for 10,000 Rohingyas

INTERNATIONAL
Times of India: US tones down Burmese umbrage

OPINION / OTHER
Washington Post: Two dangerous events
Nation: Something's rotten in South Asia
Bangkok Post: Will the new PM make a difference?
Bangkok Post: The downfall of Gen Khin Nyunt

ANNOUNCEMENT
Tacticaltech.org: Asia Source: Tech camp for the voluntary sector

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INSIDE BURMA

November 1, Xinhua News Agency
Myanmar official newspaper hails stronger ties with India

Yangon: The New Light of Myanmar published editorials for two consecutive
days speaking highly of Myanmar top leader Than Shwe's just-ended state
visit to India and hailing the stronger and friendly bilateral ties with
India.

The visit has opened a new chapter in political, economic and cultural
cooperation between the two countries, said the official newspaper on
Sunday and Monday.

The editorials pointed out that for India, Myanmar is the only gateway to
the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the two countries
are partners cooperating in BIMST-EC (Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, Sri
Lanka and Thailand-Economic Cooperation) and Mekong-Ganga Cooperation.

With a gradual increase in trade, the two countries still have a prospect
of further widening their scope of bilateral cooperation, the editorials
said.

The editorials cited the remarks of Than Shwe, chairman of the Myanmar
State Peace and Development Council, that Myanmar welcomes India's "Look
East" policy and its commitment to strengthen economic ties and
developmental cooperation with the ASEAN countries.

During Than Shwe's recent state visit to India, Myanmar and India signed
three memorandums of understanding on cooperation in non-traditional
security issues, implementation of the Tamanthi hydroelectric power
project and on a cultural exchange program.

According to a joint statement issued at the end of Than Shwe's visit,
Myanmar supports India's bids to become a permanent member of the United
Nations Security Council, while India backs Myanmar' s national
reconciliation and early transition to democracy.

Myanmar reiterated that it would not allow insurgent activities against
India from its soil, according to the statement.

Than Shwe paid a five-day state visit to India on Oct. 24-29, which
represented the first trip to New Delhi by a Myanmar top leader since the
present ruling government took office in 1988 and was also Than Shwe's
first tour abroad after a change of prime minister on Oct. 19.

Relations between Myanmar and India have been warming up rapidly since
late 1990s. According to official statistics, India has an investment of
4.5 million US dollars in Myanmar since 1999. Its bilateral trade,
including the border trade, with Myanmar amounted to over 400 million
dollars in 2003 with India standing as Myanmar's fourth largest trading
partner after Thailand, China and Singapore during the year.

India stands as Myanmar's second largest export market after Thailand,
absorbing 25 percent of its total exports. It plans to increase its
bilateral trade with Myanmar to 1 billion dollars by 2006.

____________________________________

October 30, Agence France Presse
Myanmar's new hardline PM to make first foreign trip to China

Yangon: Myanmar's new hardline prime minister, who took office earlier
this month after the sacking of his reformist predecessor, will visit
China in his first overseas trip next week, officials said Saturday.

Lieutenant General Soe Win would attend the China-Association of Southeast
Asian Nations (ASEAN) Business and Investment Summit in Nanning in China's
southern Guangxi province, a brief official statement said.

Chinese diplomatic sources said the prime minister would leave Yangon on
Tuesday for the four-day visit.

China, which shares a long border with Myanmar, is one of the regime's few
allies and one of its biggest trading partners. Total trade between the
two countries was valued at more than one billion dollars in 2003, an
increase of 25 per cent from the previous year. It is expected to increase
further.

On October 18 Soe Win replaced former prime minister Khin Nyunt, who had
supported dialogue with detained opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi.

Khin Nyunt, who was placed under house arrest after his ouster, had
appeared increasingly marginalised with the rise of hardliners within the
leadership following an earlier reshuffle, according to analysts. He led a
mission to China in July.

China and India have both been vying for trade and investment
opportunities in Myanmar while the United States and European Union impose
sanctions on the regime.

Soe Win's China trip comes a week after Myanmar's military strongman, Than
Shwe, completed the first visit by a Myanmar head of state to India in 24
years.

During the six-day trip, the two sides agreed to boost bilateral trade
while Myanmar invited Indian investment into a variety of sectors
including energy and health.

Myanmar is a member of the 10-member ASEAN which pursues a policy of
constructive engagement toward the regime.

China has for years worked hard at boosting economic ties with Southeast
Asian nations in what analysts see as part of a wider move to exert more
influence over the region.

_____________________________________
BUSINESS / MONEY

November 1, Xinhua News Agency
Myanmar eyes good prospects of trade ties with China

Yangon: Myanmar Minister of Commerce Brigadier-General Tin Naing Thein on
Monday eyed good prospects of trade ties with China, believing that the
bilateral trade and economic cooperation would continue to expand in the
future.

In an exclusive interview with Xinhua a day before a high Myanmar
delegation is due to leave for Nanning to take part in the first
China-ASEAN Expo, Tin Naing Thein said Prime Minister Lieutenant-General
Soe Win's personal attendance in the expo and the China-ASEAN Business and
Investment Summit reflects Myanmar's wishes to enhance the two countries'
economic and trade ties.

There exists strong mutual supplementation in trade ties between the two
countries. Myanmar has rich natural resources, including mining,
agricultural and forest products, while Myanmar consumers like Chinese
goods, he said.

When asked about any change of Myanmar's economic and trade policy after
recent cabinet reshuffle, he specially stressed that the policy laid down
by the government would not change but welcome Chinese entrepreneurs to do
businesses and invest in Myanmar, assuring to provide better facilities
for their move and disclosing that a number of government departments has
had cooperative links with Chinese counterparts and such links would
increase.

During Chinese Vice-Premier Wu Yi's last visit to Myanmar in March this
year, China proposed an increase of bilateral trade volume to 1.5 billion
dollars by 2005. Concerning this, Myanmar also expects the same with
China, he said.

Concerning the establishment of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area, he pointed
out that "win-win" situation could be attained through friendly
coordination as there exists unequal status among countries.

With regard to the border trade, Tin Naing Thein said Myanmar has been
making efforts to transform the two countries' border trade into normal
trade to benefit each other and the transition is being strived under a
bilateral agreement signed years before on border administration.

He also disclosed that an annual Myanmar-China border trade fair will be
held in December in Myanmar's border town of Muse linking China's Ruili to
boost the trade between the two countries.

According to the minister, China-Myanmar bilateral trade, including border
trade, reached nearly 700 million US dollars in the fiscal year 2003-04
with China representing one of its major trading partners.

He went on to disclose that during the first half (April- September) of
the fiscal year 2004-05, Myanmar-China bilateral trade volume reached
423.15 million dollars, equally shared in normal and border trade.

Relating to the upcoming China-ASEAN expo in Nanning, capital of southwest
China's Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, he continued to say a 55-member
Myanmar delegation involving 22 companies will take part in the event.

Myanmar products to be displayed in the expo will be from seven
cooperatives, 13 private companies and two tour agencies. These products
mainly include jewelry, garments, medicines, household goods, silver
wares, wood carvings, handicrafts, tapestries, gemstone pictures and
marine products.

_____________________________________
REGIONAL

November 1, Bangkok Post
Human trafficking: Laos to join fight against people trade

Thailand and Laos will soon sign an agreement to cooperate in the fight
against human trafficking, particularly women and children, a senior
official said yesterday.

Wallop Ploythapthim, the permanent secretary of social development and
human security, said it would be similar to the agreement with Cambodia
signed in May last year.

The draft agreement was being examined by the two countries and he
expected it would soon go to the cabinet for endorsement before it was
signed.

"The agreement will include assistance and rehabilitation for victims of
human trafficking, arrangements for them to return home, and the exchange
of information on ways to prevent women and children becoming victims of
these criminal gangs," Mr Wallop said.

He believed similar agreements would soon be reached with Burma and
possibly Vietnam.

At a meeting of senior officials and ministers of countries in the Mekong
sub-region on human trafficking, held in Burma on Oct 27-29, he had
unofficial talks with Vietnamese and Burmese delegates on the matter.

When trafficked women and children were sent back to Burma two months ago
for rehabilitation, Burmese officials cooperated well, Mr Wallop said.

He expected Thailand and Vietnam to discuss an agreement before the next
meeting of senior officials of countries in the Mekong sub-region in March
or May next year.

An adviser to the United Nations Inter-Agency Project on Human
Trafficking, Saisuree Chutikul, said Burma, Cambodia, China, Laos, Vietnam
and Thailand were at the centre of the trade in the region.

Education and strict law enforcement were major preventive measures which
must be taken.

Mrs Saisuree said the signing by the six countries in the Mekong
sub-region of a memorandum of understanding against human trafficking in
Burma on Oct 29 was a historic move.

_____________________________________

October 31, Organisation of Asia-Pacific News Agencies
Bhutan-type operation against insurgents in Myanmar likely Ajay Kaul


New Delhi: After Bhutan, insurgents from India's Northeastern states,
hiding in Myanmar could face the heat as the military regime there is not
averse to carry out an army operation against them. The issue was
discussed during the just-concluded visit here by Myanmar's top military
leader Than Shwe.

He is believed to have assured the Indian leadership that Yangon was for a
Bhutan-type operation against the Indian insurgents hiding there,
government sources told PTI here on Sunday.

The two countries have agreed to discuss modalities for carrying out such
an operation, the sources said, adding the process could start shortly. "A
number of operational details, including survey and planning, have to be
worked out and it can take some time before a drive can begin," they said.
Initial level discussions in this context were held when a defence
delegation of Myanmar accompanying Than met Army Chief Gen N C Vij here,
the sources said.

Gen Vij is understood to have apprised the Myanmarese delegation about the
extent of presence of North East insurgents in that country and the places
where the terrorists are believed to be hiding.

"This interaction between defence establishments of the two countries on
fighting terrorism is likely to increase in the future," the sources said.

_____________________________________

October 30, New Straits Times
Refugee status soon for 10,000 Rohingyas

About 10,000 Rohingyas in Malaysia will soon be able to breathe easy.
Kuala Lumpur: Minister in the Prime Minister's Department Datuk Seri Nazri
Aziz confirmed today that the Government was in the process of giving the
Rohingyas (an ethnic minority group in Myanmar) identification cards and
according them refugee status.

This is something that has been long awaited by the displaced community
here and the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR).

UNHCR grants the Rohingyas political refugee status but as they have not
been formally recognised by the Malaysian Government, they can be detained
and deported.

Nazri said he had recently informed MPs about the decision and that the
details of the ID issuance would be handled by the Home Affairs Ministry.

He added that the ID card would not constitute citizenship status, as it
was a tool to allow the Government to monitor their movements within the
country as well as prevent them from being deported.

Most Rohingyas, with long-standing grievances against their Government,
come into Malaysia legally but then they are either not welcome back in
their country or have destroyed their own documentation.

According to Article 1 of the UN Convention on Refugees, a refugee is
someone who is outside his or her country of nationality or habitual
residence; has a well-founded fear of persecution because of his/her race,
religion, nationality, membership in a particular social group or
political opinion; and is unable or unwilling to avail himself/herself of
the protection of that country, or to return there, for fear of
persecution.

_____________________________________
INTERNATIONAL

October 31, Times of India
US tones down Burmese umbrage - Chidanand Rajghatta

Washington: The visit to India of Burmese dictator Than Shwe has angered a
powerful US Senator. But the State Department took a more measured view of
the visit, hoping New Delhi would use the opportunity to convey to him the
international community's concerns about democracy and human rights.

"The Government of India is aware of our concerns about the situation in
Burma," State Department spokesman Richard Boucher said when asked about
the outburst of Republican Senator Mitch McConnell against the visit.

"We hope that the Government of India will convey to Than Shwe during his
visit concerns shared by the international community."

Those concerns, Boucher said, include the failure of Burma's leaders to
free political prisoners, including Aung San Suu Kyi, engage in a
meaningful dialogue with other political and ethnic leaders to achieve
national reconciliation and establish democracy, and ensure that the
fundamental human rights of the people of Burma are respected.

New Delhi has long supported Aung San Suu Kyi and the democracy movement
in Burma, but it surprisingly hosted the Burmese junta leader this week,
ostensibly to get a grip on the militant movements in its north-eastern
states adjoining Burma. The six-day visit is the first to India in 24
years by a Burmese leader.

The move outraged McConnell, who is the second ranking Republican in the
US Senate and has been a supporter of the democracy movement in Burma.

"It is absolutely appalling that the world's largest democracy is
embracing one of the world's most repressive and illegitimate military
juntas. The community of democracies should expect more from one of its
members," McConnell fumed in a statement on Wednesday.

"I hope it is not lost on India's leadership that their long-term
interests are best served by a Burma rooted in democracy, freedom and
justice," McConnell said.

"India has served as an exemplar for nonviolence and should do more for
those Burmese who continue to courageously and nonviolently struggle for
democracy."

_____________________________________


_____________________________________


_____________________________________
OPINION / OTHER

November 1, Washington Post
Two dangerous events

In every presidency crises arise in parts of the world that received no
attention whatsoever during the campaign season. Two seemingly unrelated
events in the past few days suggest that the next president may have to
focus sooner rather than later on a corner of South Asia that didn't
figure in this year's debates.

The first event was the apparent suffocation of 78 Muslim detainees in
custody in Thailand last Monday. The Post published a photograph of the
detainees before their fatal truck voyage, in which they are shirtless,
faces to pavement, hands bound behind them -- disturbing as an image and
horrifying in what it foretells.

The story behind the deaths is disturbing, too. Thailand for decades has
been one of the stronger democracies in the region, but its current
strongman prime minister, Thaksin Shinawatra, is leading the nation
backward. He has strong-armed the media, intimidated opponents and
sanctioned massive extrajudicial killings of supposed drug dealers.

Now he is inflaming Muslim separatism in southern Thailand with brutal
repression. His first response to the deaths in custody was that the men
may have been ''weak'' from fasting in observance of Ramadan.

A few days earlier in Burma, a kind of silent coup took place in which the
prime minister, Gen. Khin Nyunt, was placed under house arrest by the No.
1 ruling general, Than Shwe. On one level, the lack of global response is
understandable; all the generals in the Burma junta are corrupt,
repressive and dishonorable.

Unlike Thailand, Burma has not been a democracy. But it did have one free
election; its people voted overwhelmingly in 1990 for a courageous woman
named Aung San Suu Kyi and her National League for Democracy.

The generals annulled the reelection, and today she is under house arrest,
with hundreds of her supporters in prison. Some of Burma's neighbors have
chosen to hope that ''engagement'' with Burma's dictators would persuade
them to ease the repression; Japan has offered aid to the regime; U.N.
Secretary General Kofi Annan has pursued a dialogue.

The governments in Thailand and Burma are following paths that not only
grind down their own people but threaten the stability of a wider region.
The U.S. president-elect will have to pay attention.

_____________________________________

October 31, The Nation
Something's rotten in South Asia

Burma is a bad choice as the first stop for India's latest diplomatic
foray into Southeast Asia

For General Than Shwe, who has emerged as the most powerful man in the
Burmese junta as a result of the most recent power grabs, his recent
week-long trip to India was an unambiguous success. However, this trip has
also cast India in a very negative light regarding its diplomatic approach
towards Asean, for which it will pay a very high price. What is clear is
that Burma knows how to play one power against another. Obviously, the
junta has realised for quite some time now that Burma has become a little
too dependent on China, which has been the rogue state's single most
important backer since 1988. For 16 years, Beijing has developed
full-fledged relations with Rangoon and has utilised the latter's rich
natural resources and strategic location to its advantage.

Since 1995, China's influence in terms of both security and trade has
increased by leaps and bounds. This state of affairs has been no small
source of concern among Indian policymakers, who have in recent years
started courting the junta leaders, apparently out of a need to offset
China's cosy relations with its hermetic neighbour.

In more ways than one, Than Shwe's trip was a reward for India's steadfast
and unfailing support of the junta.

Burma knows full well that China is in no position to do anything about
its diplomatic overtures towards India.

As a stalwart supporter of Burma, China's national interests have been too
intertwined with those of Rangoon for the Asian giant to feel threatened
by the burgeoning ties between Burma and India, the relative latecomer.

China will remain a reliable ally for Burma to fall back on. After all,
Asean has not been able to muster enough courage in the past decade to put
pressure on China to shift its course regarding its unstinting support for
the internationally condemned Burmese junta.

At a time when India's ascendancy in Asia has gained the world's largest
democracy international recognition as a major political and economic
power in this part of the world, it is unfortunate that Rangoon was the
first country to take advantage of New Delhi's new-found international
influence.

To be fair, it would be hard to single out India for condemnation. New
Delhi has maintained that security and trade rank high among its
foreign-policy objectives. But its sudden decision to embrace the junta
has thrown the long-standing international efforts to bring national
reconciliation and restore democracy to Burma into disarray. This unsubtle
move by India may turn out to be counterproductive to India's long-term
relations with the rest of the region.

For one full decade before the end of Cambodia's civil war, relations
between India and Asean were frozen due to New Delhi's recognition of the
Vietnam-backed Heng Samrin regime, installed after Vietnam's invasion and
occupation of the country in 1978.

It took extraordinary efforts by both sides to begin fence-mending and
rebuilding mutual trust and understanding, which are prerequisites for
further cooperation.

India's close relationship with Burma is unlikely to last because Burma
will not be held captive by its fear of insurgency forever. Let's not
forget that the junta leaders have for years been expertly playing this
game with Thailand and China, which also share long borders with Burma.

Moreover, if and when the international community manages to get its act
together, India's position on Rangoon could easily be jeopardised and
become untenable. If the political situation inside Burma becomes unstable
and degenerates into chaos, India's new friendship with the junta could
prove to be more of a liability than an asset.

Meanwhile, Burma's leadership will try its best to maintain the
business-as-usual attitude with countries that have no qualms about being
associated with such an atrocious regime. The bogus constitution-drafting
process will continue and sham National Conventions will be held.

The outcome , or lack thereof , is the least of the junta's concern
because it believes that members of the international community will be
too preoccupied with their own problems to take much notice of what
happens in Burma.

For now, this unfortunate turn of events, in which India has played no
small part, is a win-win situation for the pariah state. But India's
prestige as the world's largest democracy and an emerging regional power
has been diminished by its diplomatic bungling.

_____________________________________

October 31, Bangkok Post
Will the new PM make a difference? - Ahmyotheryei U Win Naing

Soe Win's experience as a national administrator is very limited and
therefore many are questioning his potential contributions to the Office
of the Prime Minister, writes

The political turmoil in Burma has become not only a regional nuisance but
also an international headache. Last month, EU countries and Asean members
had a diplomatic tug-of-war over Burma's attendance to the Asem meeting in
Hanoi, Vietnam. General Khin Nyunt wanted to attend the meeting on behalf
of Burma but EU governments denied him. It would have been his last
attendance to an international meeting as prime minister. Now he is gone,
replaced by Lt-Gen Soe Win, who became Secretary-1 of the State Peace and
Development Council (SPDC) after Khin Nyunt was appointed prime minister
on 26 August last year.

Soe Win was head of the Northwest Army Command and chief of Special
Operations at the War Office before he succeeded Khin Nyunt as
Secretary-1. Now he has taken over Khin Nyunt's job again as prime
minister. His experience as a national administrator is very limited and
therefore many are questioning his potential contributions to the Office
of the Prime Minister. At the moment, many believe he will be just the
mouthpiece of Senior General Than Shwe, the No.1 leader of Burma.

At a special meeting last Sunday with business entrepreneurs to clarify
the political change, General Thura Shwe Mann delivered an address as a
member of the SPDC. Soe Win followed him with a short speech. This
indicates that the new prime minister is now No.4 in the military
hierarchy. There are very few people in Burma who would give him a
"honeymoon period", and Soe Win will certainly have to work very hard to
win the confidence and respect of both the local and international
communities.

In his clarification speech, General Thura Shwe Mann promised to continue
implementing the present state policies, including the implementation of
the seven-point road map and the convening of the National Convention.
There would be no change in national policies toward armed groups which
had returned to the legal fold. There is no change in foreign policy and
the state will continue to cooperate with the world's nations to improve
international relations.

These promises mean just one thing to the people of Burma and the world --
military government will continue to rule the country as tightly as ever.

Commenting on the leadership change, some of the regional leaders,
including Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, said they wished Burma
would continue with the seven-step political road map plan. Their remarks
are most ludicrous. They are either too ignorant about Burma's politics or
they have become anti-democracy. Implementing the road map without
compromising with the democratic forces in Burma would -- in essence _ be
anti-democracy and totally unacceptable to the people. This fact has been
repeatedly pointed out by Burma's democratic forces and their supporters
around the world.

Any regional and international leaders may express their support for the
road map, but they must also emphasise that each of the seven steps be
taken with the consent of the Burmese people.

Addressing last Sunday's meeting with the entrepreneurs, Soe Win sternly
warned that "the objectives of the state will not be changed for any
reasons." Does this mean that the SPDC will continue its practice of not
compromising with democratic forces in Burma? Does this mean that it will
continue to ignore the people's wishes and also the world's opinion?

How will Burma's neighbours and the world react to the new prime
minister's statement? The answers to those questions will come to light in
the next 100 days, especially during and after the Asean summit scheduled
to open in November in Vientiane, Laos.

The people of Burma expect clear, strong and decisive remarks and actions
by their neighbours this time. We are fed up with the standard consolation
and evasive responses by our neighbours, which will stay in our memory for
a long, long time. The future relationship between Burma and Asean will be
greatly influenced by our neighbours' actions during this political
crisis.

There was one crucial point made by Soe Win in his speech. He said Burma
will have a clean and dynamic government which does not oppress the
people, misbehave or take bribes. This I must support with all my heart.

A government cannot function successfully if it is riddled with
corruption. An international study released last week listed Burma as the
fourth most corrupted country in the world. This must be stopped. We must
have a clean government in Burma first before we can democratise the
country. I would like to hold the new prime minister and his cabinet
responsible for his promise to the country. This should not be just
another empty promise.

In this regard, the military government must let the people work closely
with them in fighting corruption. This will offer a great opportunity for
the military and politicians to start a new relationship by working
together against a common enemy. If the SPDC is truly serious about
fighting corruption, it must work together with other forces. It cannot
win the war on corruption alone.

The National League for Democracy of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi may be asked to
help fight corruption. This would help the government to restart a
confidence-building process with the NLD.

Prime Minister Soe Win, the ball is in your court. Let's start anew, for
the sake of the country.

Ahmyotheryei U Win Naing is a graduate of Rangoon University majoring in
Political Science. He worked as radio broadcaster and translator for Burma
Broadcasting Service (1956-1962), VOA in Washington, DC (1962-65), USIS in
Rangoon (1965-1974) and BBC, London (1978-1981). He now lives in Kamayut
township, Yangon.

_____________________________________

October 31, Bangkok Post
The downfall of Gen Khin Nyunt - Maxmilian Wechsler

Burma's Senior General Than Shwe had plenty of good reasons to remove
Prime Minister Khin Nyunt, but in doing so he may have hastened the
collapse of his regime

Though not unexpected, the Oct 18 removal of 65-year-old Burmese Prime
Minister Khin Nyunt may exacerbate the infighting within Burma's ruling
elite, with undesirable consequences for its neighbours. Thailand, for its
part, must be more cautious, but sincere, in its offer to help Burma
attain a national reconciliation and solve its longstanding political
problems.

Prior to the arrest of General Khin Nyunt, many Burma watchers had been
predicting for weeks an impending showdown between him and the hardliners
within the governing State Peace and Development Council (SPDC).

Burma's state-controlled radio and television announced his removal in a
terse, brief statement the next day, saying that General Khin Nyunt was
"permitted to retire for health reasons." Only a few people believe that
this was the real reason, as this phrase has often been used in the past
after the forced ouster of ministers and senior officers. Commented one
Burmese exile: "If this is the reason for dismissal, then whoever
appointed him should have been dismissed six years ago for the same
reason."

He was referring to the most powerful man in Burma, the 71-year-old,
fragile-looking SPDC chairman, Senior General Than Shwe. He, along with
his right-hand man, General Maung Aye, the SPDC vice-chairman and the army
commander, have of late been getting increasingly irritated by Khin
Nyunt's "liberal" policies, especially since his appointment as prime
minister on August 25, 2003.

After the appointment, Khin Nyunt didn't waste much time in introducing
himself to the world as an "innovator". He fired his first salvo only five
days later when, during an 80-minute speech, he announced a seven-point
"road map" to democracy, plans for a new National Constitutional
Convention and "free and fair" elections.

Some foreign "experts" came close to describing Khin Nyunt as a
"liberator", as one who wanted to install a real democracy in Burma. But
if they had been more careful in doing their homework, they might have
reached a different conclusion. They would have discovered that he was a
protege of the late dictator General Ne Win and was instrumental in
suppressing the 1988 nationwide democracy uprising when he was a brigadier
general.

And in his post as the military intelligence chief since 1984, Khin Nyunt
created a sophisticated spying network, stretching even around the world.
His men were embedded in many opposition organisations and his success was
apparent in many press conferences where information on activities and
future plans of the exiles was pretty accurate.

Several sources have claimed that Khin Nyunt, his loyalists, and some
disgruntled middle-rank army commanders had actually planned a coup
against Than Shwe, and that the removal was a pre-emptive action against
him. And in fact a number of -- nobody knows exactly how many_ Khin
Nyunt's people have been arrested.

Even if there were no plans for a coup, Than Shwe still had valid reasons
to dispose of the prime minister -- primarily the corruption within
military intelligence organisations of which Khin Nyunt was in charge for
20 years.

A Burmese dissident said Khin Nyunt was actually detained at Rangoon
airport on October 18, after returning from Mandalay where he visited
dozens of military intelligence and border trade officers who had been
arrested earlier on the China-Burma border and were being detained for
investigation in connection with corruption.

Another matter that jeopardised Khin Nyunt's place in the junta hierarchy
was the seizure of about 600 kilogrammes of heroin from a boat in Ye
township of Mon State on July 9. The heroin has allegedly been linked to
some of his subordinates.

According to a reliable source, Burma's Foreign Minister Nyan Win said at
a closed meeting with all ambassadors in Rangoon on October 21 that Khin
Nyunt actually had resigned for health reasons, but that he also had to
bear responsibility for a major recent incident of alleged corruption in
northern Burma.

SOME NOTORIOUS FRIENDS

As the military intelligence chief since 1984, Khin Nyunt was able to
persuade 17 armed ethnic groups to make verbal ceasefire agreements with
the regime, by granting them full or partial autonomy. He actually
created, protected and did business with a number of ethnic ceasefire
group leaders who allegedly got rich and powerful from the illicit drug
trade spread from Burma throughout the world.

He didn't seem to mind being seen and photographed with warlords such as
Pau Yu Chang of the United Wa State Army (UWSA), Sai Lin of the Myanmar
National Alliance Army and Kokang leader Phone Kyar Chin.

The notorious fugitive drug kingpin Wei Hsueh-kang, after being sentenced
to death on drug trafficking charges, somehow managed to escape from
Thailand and settled with his brothers in Burma, where Khin Nyunt
allegedly gave him protection and allowed him to build the biggest drug
network in Burma.

Wei felt secure in Burma and didn't undergo plastic surgery on his face,
according to one person who saw him at Van Hong in the southern part of
the Wa region last month.

"He often stays in Nam Tain of Tang Yang township in the northern Wa
region and keeps in touch with Pau Yu Chang and other Wa leaders," said
the Wa source, who also predicted that these two and other "close
associates" of Khin Nyunt might face problems.

Another of Khin Nyunt's close friends and key supporters is a Kokang
Chinese by the name of Lo Hsing Han, allegedly one of the world's biggest
heroin traffickers. He is also chairman of Burma's largest group of
companies, Asia World Co Ltd.

Lo Hsing Han was convicted and sentenced to death in 1973 -- not for drug
trafficking, but for treason.

Yet he was freed under a general amnesty in 1980 and allegedly came to
control the biggest drug-trafficking organisation in Southeast Asia in the
early 1990s. According to US narcotic officials, he also served as an
adviser on ethnic affairs to Khin Nyunt.

A confidential Thai law enforcement memo in February 1993 referred to Lo
Hsing Han's "privilege", granted by then Brigadier General Khin Nyunt, to
take a cargo from the Kokang group to Tachilek (on the Thai border)
without interception.

Lo Hsing Han's son, U Tun Myint Naing, a.k.a. Steven Law, developed an
extraordinarily close friendship with Khin Nyunt. Stephen is Asia World's
managing director and is also accused of being involved in the drug
business. He was refused entry into the United States in early 1996
because of "suspicion of drug trafficking".

Khin Nyunt initiated peace talks with Burma's biggest opposition group,
the Karen National Union (KNU) and even hosted a birthday party in Rangoon
for the group's vice president, General Saw Bo Mya, in January 2004. This
didn't make Than Shwe very happy.

An unprecedented and well-calculated move to challenge and discredit Khin
Nyunt was the intrusion of 50 armed SPDC troops into the UWSA region on
September 22 of this year. The troops were, however, disarmed and
apprehended by the Wa troops, and released three days later.

The deputy commander of the UWSA, Bo Lai Kham, complained to the Burmese
military commander in Lashio, who denied any knowledge of the intrusion.
The UWSA also directly informed Khin Nyunt, who was apparently really
surprised, saying that he knew nothing about it but would find out who had
given the order.

The Wa leadership, unhappy with the unfolding situation, called an
emergency meeting to discuss the problem at the end of September and
agreed not to allow SPDC troops to enter their territory. They also
ordered their well-equipped 30,000-strong army to be ready to fight any
invasion.

A senior member of the Wa leadership said during a telephone interview
from Pang Sang last Monday that it was "too early" to speculate what
effect the dismissal of Khin Nyunt would have on the Wa. He stressed that
China would support and protect the Wa unconditionally, something even
General Maung Aye already knows.

"The SPDC has no reason to invade our region. For what? What would it
gain?" said the Wa leader.

He stressed, however, that if their territory were invaded, the Wa would
fight to the death -- no matter who the aggressor.

During the interview he also dismissed the overtures made by some Burmese
exiles abroad, saying: "We are not interested in making contact with them
at this time. We have nothing to gain."

CHINA'S DISMAY

According to a well-informed diplomatic source, the removal of Khin Nyunt
is expected to be greeted with some dismay in Beijing. The deposed prime
minister was keen to develop economic ties with China, which also
appreciated his friendship with the Wa. However, said the source, "The
Chinese had been well aware that he was in a power struggle with the
hardliners."

Last month, Khin Nyunt returned from Beijing with "an armful of trade
deals and soft loans to boost his clout at home," provided courtesy of the
Chinese government to keep him in his position, as he was seen as the best
bet for maintaining stability in Burma.

Khin Nyunt is, as are most of the top SPDC leaders, involved in many
business ventures with prominent Burmese businessmen. Close friend U Htay
Myint is one of the wealthiest men in Burma and owns many large companies
in which Khin Nyunt is a shareholder. He has shares in Myawaddy and Asia
Wealth Bank and is a part-owner of the Myanmar Times, a weekly English
language newspaper published in Rangoon.

After Khin Nyunt's removal, over a dozen of publications were suspended
"indefinitely" or for a "limited period," including the Myanmar Times,
whose editor-in-chief is Australian-born Ross Dunkley.

Some opposition figures believed that by firing Khin Nyunt, Than Shwe
removed one of the three layers that were protecting the "collective
leadership", making the regime more vulnerable than before. "The friction
and infighting between the Burmese elite will surely increase and anything
could happen -- sooner or later. Than Shwe miscalculated. This might speed
up the inevitable total collapse of the regime," said a Burmese analyst.

After the announcement of Khin Nyunt's removal, Than Shwe's loyalist
Lt-Gen Soe Win, who was holding the position of SPDC Secretary -1, was
declared the new prime minister. His promotion will likely be seen as a
strengthening of the position of military hardliners within the Burmese
leadership.

US State Department spokesman Richard Boucher said Washington had received
credible reports that Lt-Gen Soe Win was "directly involved in the
decision to carry out the brutal attack on Aung San Suu Kyi and her convoy
on May 30, 2003."

On that day scores of her supporters were killed and injured at Depayin,
near Mandalay, after the attack by a mob of pro-government youth, and
hundreds of supporters were arrested afterward. Aung San Suu Kyi has been
under house arrest since that day.

Dr Sein Win, appointed prime minister by the US-based National Coalition
Government of the Union of Burma, stated after learning of the latest
developments: "Without corrective intervention, we are concerned that the
generals will continue to ignore popular opinion and step up hostilities
against ethnic and democracy movements and threaten the security of Daw
Aung San Suu Kyi and other democratic leaders. Regional and neighbouring
countries, which have been supporting and defending the Burmese generals
regardless, should also adopt appropriate measures to guide Burma back on
the correct path toward democracy."

_____________________________________

ANNOUNCEMENT

Nov 1, Tacticaltech.org
Asia Source: Tech camp for the voluntary sector
Bangalore, India. January 28th to February 4th 2005.

Asia Source hopes to bring together over 100 people from 20 countries to
increase the use of Free and Open Source Software (FOSS) amongst the
voluntary sector in South and South East Asia.

This week long event will bring together NGOs and NGO technology support
professionals working at the grassroots level across the region to learn
new skills, exchange tips, and share experiences. Together with regionally
and globally renowned experts and specialists they will look at the use of
FOSS within the non-profit sector from both an access and a content
perspective. Offering participants the opportunity to explore the
practical technical side of FOSS whilst providing a conceptual backdrop.

Asia Source will be the first event of its kind in the region, bringing
together regional non-profit professionals with a rights based focus, it
will invite those from both the technical and content end of the spectrum
to focus on the practical elements of technology deployment.

For more information please visit http://www.tacticaltech.org/asiasource

Applications will be announced and invited between October and November
2004. Participants will be selected by the advisory board based on their
interest and experiences. There will be a small registration fee for the
event. A limited number of travel and registration fee scholarships will
be available and may be applied for on application. If you would like to
receive an application form or have any questions please write to
asiasource at tacticaltech.org.