BurmaNet News, February 2, 2005

[Editor]

February 2, 2005, Issue # 2648


INSIDE BURMA
Irrawaddy: Junta’s deputy leader reportedly banned from leaving Rangoon
Bangkok Post: Karen group urges Burmese government to release prisoners,
hold talks
Xinhua: New shipyard in Myanmar to be put into operation

ON THE BORDER
Bangkok Post: Thai police arrest Burmese man on passport forgery charges

DRUGS
Nation: Warrants issued for warlords
SHAN: Wa having the last fling

GUNS
AFP: Russia sold six billion dollars worth of arms in 2004

REGIONAL
AFP: Malaysia extends amnesty for illegal immigrants

OPINION / OTHER
Nation: Something is rotten in the Golden Triangle
Nation: Thai diplomacy is firing blanks
New Straits Times (Malaysia): Rethinking Asean principle

_____________________________________
INSIDE BURMA

February 2, Irrawaddy
Junta’s deputy leader reportedly banned from leaving Rangoon

The deputy leader of Burma’s military government has allegedly been
prohibited from leaving Rangoon because of health reasons, reported the
BBC Burmese Service on Tuesday, quoting sources close to the military.

Snr-Gen Than Shwe, head of the junta, has alerted all the country’s
military command headquarters that his deputy, Vice Snr-Gen Maung Aye,
will be unable to visit, according to the BBC.

The BBC said that its sources suspect Maung Aye is under house arrest. The
sources also speculate that Maung Aye may soon be purged because former
Prime Minister Gen Khin Nyunt was also sacked on grounds of “poor health”
last October, although later announcements claimed he was ousted due to
corruption.

However, the state-run newspapers today showcased articles about meetings
between Burma’s top military leaders, including Than Shwe and Maung Aye,
and visiting Thai army chief Gen Chaisit Shinawatra. Two versions of the
English- and Burmese-language daily New Light of Myanmar ran group
pictures of the Thai and Burmese generals.

Some reports said Gen Chaisit’s one-day trip to Rangoon on Tuesday was to
seek clarification about rumors of a leadership change in the capital.

At the end of January, rumors circulated that tension was growing among
the top generals and that Prime Minister Lt-Gen Soe Win had been sacked
from his position. Speculation even emerged about a putative gunfight
between the leaders.

The rumors began after the sudden death of Lt-Col Bo Win Tun, the personal
assistant to Maung Aye, while on duty. The cause of Bo Win Tun’s death has
not been released.

Burmese Foreign Minister Nyan Win denied the rumors and said everything
was fine.

Gen Veerasak Manee, spokesman for the Thai military, said after Gen
Chaisit’s visit that “I’m not at all confident about the rumors. This is
Burma’s internal affairs. We should not interfere with [Burma’s] domestic
issues.”

The BBC broadcast, quoting its sources close to the military, stated that
the junta has chosen a new prime minister to replace current Prime
Minister Soe Win. The report did not elaborate further.

Rangoon-based commentator Amyotheryei Win Naing said that Soe Win’s
removal is likely due to the Prime Minister’s bad reputation stemming from
the 2003 Depayin incident. In May of that year, a pro-junta mob attacked
opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi and her supporters in Depayin, Sagaing
Division, in what exiled opposition groups believe was a maneuver
orchestrated by Soe Win.

Win Naing added that, despite the junta’s public assertions, the rumors
about conflict among Rangoon’s military leaders continue to spread.

_____________________________________

February 2, Irrawaddy
NLD excluded from new National Convention - Shah Paung

The military regime has not included Burma’s main opposition party in the
constitution-drafting National Convention, set to resume on February 17,
according to a junta press conference on Tuesday.

After the press conference, the junta issued a statement that the National
Convention Convening Committee had invited the same delegates that
attended the previous National Convention, held from May 17 to July 9,
2004.

The list of groups invited to the National Convention, appended to the
announcement, excludes both the National League for Democracy, or NLD, and
the Shan Nationalities League for Democracy, or SNLD.

U Lwin, spokesman for the NLD, the country’s largest political party,
said, “Since the National Convention is [the junta’s] program, they will
proceed with it. We have nothing to say about it.”

The NLD’s conspicuous absence from the list of invitees comes as no
surprise, according to U Lwin. When the National Convention was first held
from 1993 to 1996, the NLD announced in the middle of the proceedings that
it would no longer participate due to the convention’s undemocratic
methods.

U Lwin added that the NLD has twice sent letters to the military
government expressing its willingness to listen. The first letter included
an invitation to begin a dialogue, while the second letter conveyed hope
for reconciliation. The letters received no response.

Although the junta has held power since 1988, the NLD won a whopping 80
percent of parliamentary seats in elections held in May 1990. However, the
military government refuses to recognize the election results.

_____________________________________

February 1, Bangkok Post
Karen group urges Burmese government to release prisoners, hold talks

Tak: The anti-Rangoon Karen National Union (KNU) wants the Burmese ruling
junta to show its sincerity by releasing all political prisoners and
beginning talks with the National League for Democracy (NLD) and other
minority groups, instead of using force.

The call was made at yesterday's celebrations at the KNU's Mi Aye Bu Camp,
opposite Tak, to mark the 56th anniversary of the Karen revolution. It was
attended by leaders of several minority groups, including the
pro-democracy Democratic Karen Buddhist Army.

Former KU leader Gen Bo Mya, now wheelchair-bound patron of the movement,
opened the celebrations.

"On Revolution Day this year, we call on the new (Burmese) leaders and all
Karen worldwide to follow their forerunners' cooperative approach and to
promote this among the children of the new generation," he said.

The KNU had severed itself from Burmese government control and fought for
equal rights and freedom in Burma for 56 years and would continue its
battle to maintain the Karen identity, he said.

KNU secretary-general Pado Mahn Sha Lapan said the KNU wanted Rangoon to
show its sincerity about unifying Burma by releasing all political
prisoners including NLD leader Aung San Suu Kyi, halting crackdowns on
political rivals and minority groups, and starting talks with the NLD and
all other minority groups.

KNU supreme commander Lt-Gen Mu Tu said Burmese troops were still
operating in Karen-held areas.

"If Burma wants to solve the problems through political means, the KNU is
ready to cooperate or there will be never-ending losses," he said.

_____________________________________

February 2, Xinhua News Agency.
New shipyard in Myanmar to be put into operation

Yangon: An upgraded new shipyard in Yangon is due to be put into operation
later this month to provide better maintenance services to both domestic
liners and international container vessels, a local press reported
Wednesday.

The international-standard Sinmalike Shipyard can repair foreign container
vessels of as high as 12,000 tons in capacity in addition to domestic
liners of the state-run Myanma Five Star Shipping Corporation, sources at
the shipyard was quoted by the Flower News as saying.

The shipyard, 151 meters in length, 25.2 meters in width and 10. 5 meters
in height with a 25-ton capacity electronic crane, cost over 20 million US
dollars and the upgradation work has been 99 percent completed, shipyard
engineers said.

The inauguration of the shipyard will also help renovate some domestic
liners which were brought to China's Hong Kong and Germany in the past for
the purpose at high cost, thus saving foreign exchange, the report said.

Myanmar has made certain progress in ship building in the past decade with
the encouragement of the government. Since 1995, the Myanmar shipyard has
successfully built and delivered six vessels to marine companies of
Indonesia and Singapore.

Official statistics show that since 1988, Myanmar has built over 30
vessels for cargo and passenger services and imported over 100 passenger
and cargo vessels to improve its inland water transport.

So far, Myanmar owns over 700 state-run vessels for its inland water
transport services and 23 ocean vessels engaged in overseas and coastal
shipping services.

_____________________________________
ON THE BORDER

February 1, Bangkok Post
Thai police arrest Burmese man on passport forgery charges

A Burmese man was arrested on passport forgery charges in Rachathewi
district yesterday. Police said they seized more than 100 counterfeit
passports. Aung Soe, 40, was held with 39 fake Burmese passports, two
counterfeit Panamanian passports, one fake Bangladeshi passport and 69
blank passports in a raid on the ground of floor of Pantip Plaza shopping
mall on New Phetchaburi road. They later found document forging equipment
in a house in Yannawa district.

The suspect told police he had bought old passports at the border in Tak's
Mae Sot district for 2,000 baht each, replaced the photos with those of
his customers, and charged 4,000-8000 baht per passport.

_____________________________________
DRUGS

February 2, The Nation
Warrants issued for warlords

Mae Hong Son provincial court has approved arrest warrants for two accused
Burmese warlord brothers for allegedly producing narcotics and smuggling
them into Thailand for sale, Justice Minister Pongthep Thepkanjana said.

The arrest warrants against Maha Ja and Maha Sang were approved on Monday
following a long investigation by anti-narcotics officials who found that
the brothers network had collaborated with Wei Hsuehkang, a commander in
the United Wa State Army.

Pongthep said Maha Ja and Maha Sang were accused of violating Article 6
and Article 8 of the Narcotics Suppression Measures Act. The justice
minister said the two were suspected of producing drugs on the Burma side
and using their troops to deliver the drugs to Thailand.

Boonjerd Chuenjit, 40, was arrested early yesterday morning in his Chiang
Mai townhouse for allegedly distributing drugs for the two warlords and
laundering drug money for them, Pongthep said.

Police froze Bt50 million worth of assets as a result of the raid, he said.

Maha Sang, the self-proclaimed leader of the Wa National Army, has lived
in Mae Hong Son for the past two decades after being pushed out of the
inner circle of the opium trade in Burmas Shan State.

Maha Ja, a former commander in the now-defunct Mong Tai Army of Shan opium
warlord Khun Sa, commands about 1,000 troops in eastern Shan State.

His faction defected to the government side just prior to Khun Sas
downfall in early 1996.

The justice minister said police also searched four other houses in Mae
Hong Son believed to be owned by Maha Ja and Maha Sang or their
relatives.Pol Lt-General Phanupong Singhara, commissioner of Provincial
Police Bureau 5, said police were still checking eight spots where the two
warlords might be hiding in Thailand.

_____________________________________

February 2, Shan Herald Agency for News
Wa having the last fling

Ceasefire sources returning from the Wa capital of Panghsang say they had
witnessed poppies being grown "on the largest scale ever" in the
Wa-controlled areas east of the Salween, writes S.H.A.N.'s special
correspondent:

Even around Panghsang, the fields are simply extensive, although the
output is difficult to predict. Some of the farmers have complained that
there is less rain here than in other parts of the Wa region.

"Chairman Bao Youxiang have told us that this is our last date with
opium", said one of the farmers who had played host to S.H.A.N..

"He says if there are any more poppy fields in the coming season, he's
going to chop his head off and send it to Beijing."

Bao Youxiang who is among the eight Wa leaders indicted by a US court on
24 January has long promised zero-production in the Wa areas beginning 26
June, the International Day against Drug Abuse and Illicit Trafficking.

Elsewhere in the Shan State, a bumper crop has been  reported even in
northern Shan State, where from 2001-2004, an all-out war on drugs was
waged. However, since October when Gen Khin Nyunt was removed, the Army's
focus has turned more and more inward at the expense of almost every other
government projects. "They are oblivious to almost anything going on
outside the town limits now," commented a businessman in Muse.

"So every township where I've been, Namkham, Muse, Kutkhai, Hsenwi and
Tangyan in the north, where a few years ago people had been either shot to
death or jailed for growing poppies are blooming with poppy flowers
again."

_____________________________________
GUNS

February 1, Agence France Presse
Russia sold six billion dollars worth of arms in 2004

Moscow: Russia sold six billion dollars (4.6 billion euros) of weapons
last year, the director of Moscow's military-technological cooperation
service, Mikhail Dmitriev, was quoted as saying Tuesday by the ITAR-TASS
news agency.

"The portfolio of orders is relatively high, at 14 to 15 billion dollars,"
Dmitriev said during a meeting with Russian president Vladimir Putin.

Dmitriev also noted the wide geographic range of the orders for arms.

"In addition to the traditional partners, the countries of southeast Asia
such as Vietnam, Thailand and Myanmar, as well as Malaysia and South Korea
are also rather active," he said without providing details.

According to Dmitriev, Russia also concluded contracts with Morocco and
Saudi Arabia.

"Russia is meeting all its obligations and the controls (on the sale of
arms) are respected 100 percent," Dmitriev said.

Last year, Rosoboronexport, the federal agency responsible for exporting
Russian arms and through which 90 percent of the exports pass, sold 5.1
billion dollars worth of weapons.

_____________________________________
REGIONAL

February 2, Agence France Presse
Malaysia extends amnesty for illegal immigrants

Putrajaya: Malaysia Wednesday extended indefinitely a conditional amnesty
for illegal immigrants after Indonesia requested a delay in mass
deportations as it struggles with the aftermath of the tsunami disaster.

A three-month amnesty for hundreds of thousands of illegal workers --
mostly Indonesians -- expired at midnight on Monday but a threatened
nationwide sweep to arrest, jail, whip and deport them was put on hold at
the last minute.

Home Minister Azmi Khalid said the decision to extend the amnesty was
taken at a cabinet meeting Wednesday after a written appeal to Prime
Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi by the Indonesian President Susilo Bambang
Yudhoyono.

Many of the Indonesians working illegally in Malaysia are from Aceh
province, the area worst hit by the December 26 tsunami which has left
about 280,000 people missing or dead around the Indian Ocean.

The extension of the amnesty will be welcomed by rights groups and the
United Nations refugee agency, which had expressed concerns about the
planned crackdown, but Azmi acknowledged it would "not (be) popular among
the Malaysian public".

Illegal immigrants are often blamed in Malaysia for crime, taking jobs
from locals and the creation of squatter settlements.

"It may appear to most Malaysians that we have backtracked but we must put
ourselves in Indonesia's shoes," Azmi told a news conference.

"Imagine if our country was struck by a huge disaster and within a month
our fellow citizens were treated badly in another country, how would we
feel?"

Azmi said an operation to track down illegal immigrants would go ahead,
but the approach would be different. They would be fingerprinted and given
a week to leave the country with the opportunity to return legally.

Malaysian immigration officials would be stationed in Indonesia to
facilitate their return, he said.

If they did not leave Malaysia within the one-week grace period they would
be deported and barred from ever re-entering the country, Azmi said.

Once the amnesty expired unregistered foreigners would face imprisonment
or whipping, he added. Asked when this would be, he replied: "I cannot say
when but it cannot be too long."

Nearly 400,000 illegal immigrants took the opportunity to go home during
the three-month amnesty without facing any penalty, leaving at least the
same number behind according to official estimates.

Apart from Indonesia, illegal immigrants come from the Philippines,
Myanmar, Bangladesh, India and Sri Lanka to take jobs in the construction,
plantation and service industries in relatively prosperous Malaysia.

The Philippine government had also asked Malaysia to extend the amnesty to
accommodate the estimated 170,000 Filipinos who failed to take the chance
to leave the country legally, according to reports in Manila.

Malaysia has long sought to cut its reliance on foreign workers and a
previous crackdown in 2002 saw nearly half a million people repatriated
during a four-month amnesty period.

However, this caused a severe labour shortage in the construction and
plantation sectors, and the government later had to fast-track approvals
for recruiting foreign workers for certain industries, while thousands
simply made their way back illegally.

Deputy Prime Minister Najib Razak told a news conference later the
government remained committed to cutting the number of illegal workers in
the country.

"Believe me we are serious," he said. "When a neighbour is in great
difficulty I think it is only right that we show some sympathetic
consideration to their plight."

_____________________________________
OPINION / OTHER

February 2, The Nation
Something is rotten in the Golden Triangle - Don Pathan

Although it was billed as an inevitable occurrence, the indictment in
absentia of eight Wa drug lords jolted the Burmese government and has made
the Thais, Chinese and even UN wonder what the future holds for the
politics of opium in the notorious Golden Triangle.

The US Justice Department last week indicted eight leaders of the United
Wa State Army (UWSA) a pro-Rangoon outfit that controls an autonomous
region near the Chinese border with trafficking heroin and
methamphetamines to various destinations throughout the world. Among those
indicted were powerful UWSA chairman Bao Yu-xiang and his commander, Wei
Hsueh-kang, a Han Chinese who arrived in the Golden Triangle decades ago
to seek fortune and glory.

With an abundance of opium, fortune was not hard to come by. But
everlasting glory remains nowhere in sight, as the heavily guarded Wei,
who has a US$2-million (Bt76.92-million) price on his head, continues to
move around freely, albeit discreetly, in northern Burma.

Observers who monitor UWSA activities said the indictments have jolted the
leadership of the nearly 20,000-strong outfit, which thought it had been
making headway in its quest to be recognised as running legitimate
businesses. Bao has received foreign envoys, persuaded the UN to set up a
small crop-substitution project and threatened to punish farmers in his
territory if they continue to grow opium after this year. He even managed
to obtain a Bt20-million commitment, with the help of then Burmese prime
minister Khin Nyunt, from the Thai government to support crop
substitution.

The indictments are humiliating for Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who
decided to give the UWSA the benefit of the doubt despite having publicly
stated that he would get Wei one day, dead or alive. In December 2003,
Thaksin dispatched then Third Army Region commander Lt-General Picharnmate
Muangmanee to participate in the opening ceremony for a Thai-funded school
in Wa territory. For a brief moment, it looked like things would change
for the better in that region, where gun-toting opium warlords play for
keeps. But nobody seriously believed the good times would last. After all,
that particular event had more to do with whitewashing the worlds largest
drug-trafficking army and strengthening Thai-Burmese relations than it did
with the interests of Wa peasants or any long-term peace settlement.

Throughout the entire kiss-and-make-up episode between the Thais and the
Wa, Wei and his gang continued to run their drug-funded businesses through
his associates in Burma, China and Thailand, while heroin and
methamphetamines coming out of clandestine labs in Wa-controlled areas
continued to flood the world. But that has all changed with the
indictments. A cloud of uncertainty hangs over UWSA territory, as Wa
leaders wonder what the future holds.

Moreover, there is now tremendous pressure on Rangoon to consider a
military option against the Wa. One Wa official in Panghsang said Rangoon
has tried to bluff them by dispatching a couple of battalions to their
Special Region 2. But there is no indication that the junta is prepared to
engage in full battle, which many say could be costly for the generals,
both politically and militarily.

A senior UWSA officer told The Nation during a visit last November to the
groups headquarters in Panghsang that Rangoon will likely push for a
renegotiation of the 1989 cease-fire agreement.

Under that agreement, which was orchestrated by Khin Nyunt, the UWSA was
given the right to govern its own autonomous region and maintain its own
army. Bao has said he would like to see such guarantees included in the
countrys constitution.

The US indictments have also put the Chinese authorities, especially those
along the border, in an awkward position now that their cosy relations
with the Wa are in the spotlight. Wa drug money has been invested openly
in Chinese hotels, shops and department stores in Chinas border towns.

Historically, the Wa have come a long way from being the butt of Burmese
jokes because of their head-hunting rituals two generations ago to the
countrys biggest political and security liability.

Even at the height of the Communist insurgency two decades ago, Wa
fighters were a force to be reckoned with, forming the largest block of
foot soldiers in the now-defunct Communist Party of Burma. Like other
insurgent groups, they turned to opium to finance their campaign. And like
the leaders of other ethnic armies operating along Burmas border, Bao and
his commanders have been unable to kick the habit. For years, Bao has said
UWSA territory would be drug-free by the end of 2005 or you can have my
head. With his indictment, one wonders just how safe his head is now.

_____________________________________

February 2, The Nation
Thai diplomacy is firing blanks

Restoring Thailands image could prove a daunting task in a second term for
the PM

With the general election coming up this Sunday, one question that needs
to be asked by the voting public is how well or how poorly the Thaksin
administrations foreign policy has served the furtherance of Thailands
national interests.

The answer to this question depends, at the most basic level, on the way
Thailand is perceived by the international community and by individual
partners in bilateral relations. Since coming to office four years ago,
Thaksin has tried with varying degrees of success to raise Thailands
profile to reflect the vision that he has set out for the country and
Southeast Asia.

Initiatives such as the Asia Cooperation Dialogue, the so-called Bangkok
Process for peace and reconciliation in Burma, and the prime ministers
quest to have Foreign Minister Surakiart Sathirathai become the next UN
secretary-general, while producing some useful benefits for the country,
have tended to come across as manifestations of Thaksins quirky ambition
to transform himself into an international leader to be reckoned with.

The coveted status of international statesman could theoretically
contribute significantly to the realisation of Thailands foreign policy
objectives. But being accepted internationally requires not only form, but
also substance and a high degree of sophistication.

Unfortunately, the ability to compose well-thought-through strategies or
to behave with diplomatic finesse has never been among Thaksins strong
suits.

The vast majority of the public, which has probably only a superficial
interest in foreign affairs, appears to be easily impressed by Thaksins
important-sounding initiatives.

As it turns out, most of his diplomatic forays have tended to turn off
other players in the international arena, who have found it hard to put up
with Thaksins capacity for grand-standing and imperious manner.

Nevertheless, his all-or-nothing attitude towards the problems in the
Muslim-majority South and his controversial war on drugs, which resulted
in over 2,000 questionable deaths, have won him high approval ratings at
home. But these political gambles represent a major blot on Thailands
reputation in the eyes of the international community a blot that will
surely impede efforts to push Foreign Minister Surakiart Sathirathai into
the race for the top UN post.

Thaksins confidence in his own abilities led him to believe that he could
broker peace in strife-torn Burma, an effort that ended badly because he
didnt understand why Rangoon could never see Thailand as an honest broker.

His sometimes un-diplomatic bluntness has come across to some as heroic
and to others as arrogant. Utterances such as the UN is not my father and
the US is a useless friend still ring clear in the ears of many in the
international community. Although such statements did not reflect the
feelings of the Thai people in general, they did not help burnish the
countrys image abroad.

Thaksins handling of the situation in the Muslim-majority South is
steering Thailand down a dangerous road as some hard-liners have been
employing questionable tactics in a bid to put the Thai government at
loggerheads with its Muslim neighbours Malaysia and Indonesia.

And more diplomatic problems lie ahead, as the Organisation of Islamic
Countries is expected to bring up the Tak Bai massacre for discussion at
its upcoming meeting in Kuala Lumpur. Also, if the country continues on
its current course, the violence in the deep South could attract unwanted
attention from international radical Islamic groups.

Almost immediately after coming into office, Thaksin grabbed hold Beijings
coattails, thinking that Chinese backing would be an easy route to
international stardom as the successor of Lee Kuan Yew and Dr Mahathir
Mohammed. Thailand under Thaksin has craved status as first among equals
in the eyes of the Chinese, but Beijing has never accorded the prime
minister the status that his government has sought.

The Thai government then swung to Washington, half-heartedly sending
troops to Afghanistan and Iraq, thereby securing Major Non-Nato Ally
status from the US.

And after four years under Thaksin, the jury is still out on exactly what
kind of an image or foreign policy Thailand is trying to project. What
Thaksin needs to learn is that there is no short cut to international
stardom. Efforts to achieve reconciliation in Burma have left the country
no better off than it was four years ago, and his war of words with his
Malaysian counterpart has done nothing to help polish Thailands image as a
mature partner with good relations with it neighbours.How Thaksin patches
up the untidy mess created in the past four years will be a major
challenge for his next four years in office.

_____________________________________

February 1, New Straits Times (Malaysia)
Rethinking Asean principle - Michael Vatikiotis

Myanmar's chairmanship of Asean next year has left the region's elected
lawmakers in a pickle. A multinational parliamentary caucus has been
formed for the first time to push Yangon down the road of democracy and
chip away at one of the grouping's most cherished foundation stones.

MYANMAR'S imminent turn as chairman of Asean gives regional officials
cause for concern. Their worry is that when it is the military junta's
turn to host the annual round of meetings and summits next year, Asean's
dialogue partners - and principal trading partners - will choose not to
attend and thus embarrass the region.

This fear explains why regional Governments have tacitly given the nod to
a remarkable political development that chips away at Asean's hallowed
principle of non-interference.

When legislators from Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia and
Cambodia gather in Jakarta tomorrow they will be making history by
launching the region's first interstate parliamentary caucus.

Their stated aim is to pressure the generals in Yangon to accelerate the
transition to democracy.

When the caucus was first formed in Malaysia last year, veteran opposition
politician Lim Kit Siang announced that the aim of the caucus was to
"monitor and ensure genuine democratisation" in Myanmar.

"The seven-year history of Myanmar's membership in Asean," declared Lim,
"is a sorry record littered with broken promises about genuine
democratisation and national reconciliation inside the country, which has
caused grave embarrassment to Asean, imperilling international goodwill
and investment opportunities for the region."

This strident advocacy, once the lonely preserve of NGOs and exiles, was
given a credibility boost when MPs from Umno joined the caucus and
Malaysia saw the creation of the first bipartisan parliamentary grouping.

Later in November, the caucus, now led by outspoken Umno MP Datuk Zaid
Ibrahim, brought together legislators from neighbouring Asean countries
and issued a strong statement calling for the release of Nobel peace
laureate and opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi.

The induction of 20 legislators from the Indonesian Parliament this week
means that Asean's largest and newest democracy has now lent its voice to
the calls for change in Myanmar.

The question is, will a bunch of parliamentarians calling for change in
public succeed where countless officials taking the quieter route of
discreet engagement and cajolery have failed before?

Perhaps. It seems unlikely that the sensitive generals in Yangon will
invite these MPs for tea - especially since they have been consorting with
well-known activists and advocates of radical change in Myanmar, as is
their right.

The role this group plays may not be in Myanmar itself, but in the way
it helps break new political ground in the wider region.

Over the past few years, there has been mounting impatience with Asean's
rigid adherence to the convention of non-interference, which has made it
hard, for example, for Indonesia's neighbours to complain too loudly about
the haze that pollutes the regional environment, or more recently for
neighbouring countries to propose closer co-operation to help resolve the
burgeoning conflict in southern Thailand.

A regional parliamentary caucus of the kind that is crystallising around
the Myanmar issue could help regional Governments overcome their
resistance to dialogue and co-operation on sensitive domestic issues.

Much of the difficulty in resolving the internal conflicts that plague the
region could be addressed through more cross-border discussion and
confidence-building.

Moving this kind of dialogue out of the realm of officialdom into the
popular arena helps build understanding that seeps down into society.

There are already noises coming out of the Malaysian caucus that the group
should consider addressing other regional issues like the violence in
southern Thailand that has claimed more than 500 lives this year, or even
the conflict in Aceh.

Zaid believes that elected representatives from the region have a
collective responsibility to promote democracy; and that the old culture
of non-interference should be buried in Asean.

As Foreign Minister Datuk Seri Syed Hamid Albar put it last November,
talking about the violence in southern Thailand, "there is no such thing
as absolute non-interference".

Of course, critics argue that table-thumping tactics will get Asean
nowhere with the oversensitive generals in Yangon and suggest that the MPs
confine their rhetoric to the cigar lounges of their various capitals.
That may be so, but the generals have shown no inclination to leave the
regional grouping, and want the credibility that they think will stem from
securing the Asean chairmanship in 2006.

What if, by then, Asean Governments have started listening more to their
elected representatives, and even perhaps recognised the role they play in
helping to set political directions or correct doubtful courses? The point
about the February caucus meeting in Jakarta is that this kind of thinking
is no longer so wishful.