BurmaNet News, July 28, 2005

[Editor]

July 28, 2005 Issue # 2770


INSIDE BURMA
Irrawaddy: Image conscious Burma
AFP: Chinese FM meets Myanmar's military leader
AP: Myanmar military-backed group calls for crushing 'traitors' in veiled
attack on opposition

BUSINESS / FINANCE
Mizzima: Currency deflation freezes Sino-Burmese border trade

ASEAN
AP: Myanmar's ASEAN sacrifice gives it free hand at home, say analysts
VOA: Pro-democracy activists applaud move to make Burma's military leaders
skip ASEAN Chair
AFP: Mahathir says Myanmar forgoing ASEAN chair a positive sign

REGIONAL
Irrawaddy: Rangoon and Beijing’s quiet diplomacy

INTERNATIONAL
AP: U.S. official likens situation in Myanmar to cancer as Washington
renews sanctions

OPINION / OTHER
Straits Times: Myanmar must do more
Nation: Burmese junta has five years to clean up its act
Malaysiakini: Asean has found its spine

ANNOUNCEMENT
Casa Asia: Intensive Burmese language course

____________________________________
INSIDE BURMA

July 28, Associated Press
Myanmar military-backed group calls for crushing 'traitors' in veiled
attack on opposition

Yangon: A mass organization backed by Myanmar's military-run government
has called for crushing "traitors" who ally themselves with the country's
enemies, a state-run newspaper reported Thursday.

The appeals, seen as veiled attacks on the country's pro-democracy
movement led by detained Nobel peace laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, were made
at a rally on Wednesday of the Union Solidarity and Development
Association, said the Myanma Ahlin daily.

"When Myanmar is achieving stability and development, external cohorts and
internal traitors are trying to lay obstacles in the path of progress.
These traitors and foreign lackeys should be regarded as the common enemy
of the nation and must be annihilated," the newspaper quoted Thet Naing
Oo, a USDA member, saying at Wednesday's rally in the capital.

USDA is a government-sponsored social organization that claims a
membership of tens of millions. It is not a grassroots group, but serves
rather as the rough equivalent of a political party representing the
military's interests. The membership includes a high number of civil
servants.

Newspapers and mass organizations such as the USDA are under the tight
control of the military, and the publication of such remarks can be taken
as a reflection of official opinion.

Representatives of other social organizations also attended the rally,
making their own calls to crush "destructive elements" such as traitors,
who were not identified by name.

However, the government in the past has frequently referred to Suu Kyi and
her National League for Democracy party as traitors opposing the state and
destabilizing the country.

Myanmar earlier this week agreed to relinquish its scheduled chairmanship
of the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations next year, giving
as its excuse the desire to focus its attention on the ongoing national
reconciliation and democratization process.

Responding to its declaration, the National League for Democracy on
Wednesday called for the ruling junta to hold a dialogue with the
democratic opposition to prove its commitment to national reconciliation .

In a prepared statement, it urged a "meaningful dialogue" with political
parties and opposition ethnic groups to achieve national reconciliation,
democratization and economic development, which it said were urgently
needed.

____________________________________

July 28, Irrawaddy
Image conscious Burma – Yeni

Burma’s decision on Tuesday to forgo chairmanship of the Asean regional
grouping next year failed to appear in many Burmese publications,
including government mouthpiece newspapers, until today.

Instead, newspapers such as the pro-junta New Light of Myanmar, have been
carrying their standard reports of meetings attended by members of
government-created organizations such as women’s affairs groups and
anti-narcotics associations.

The day after the junta’s decision, some 2,700 members of
government-sponsored social organizations gathered in the Myanmar
Convention Center in Rangoon for a meeting titled “Guard Against the
Danger Posed by Destructionists Through United Strength of People.”

Meeting chairman and joint-secretary of the Rangoon Division Union
Solidarity and Development Association Tha Win opened by saying that
“internal and external destructive elements are creating a series of
groundless allegations to hinder its development.”
Speakers went on to charge “some big western nations”, exiled opposition
groups and armed ethnic minority movements with trying “to tarnish
Myanmar's [Burma’s] image.”

A Myanmar War Veterans Organization delegate, retired Lt-Col Min Han, also
said that since Rangoon declared the seven-point Road Map to build a
discipline-flourishing democratic nation in August 2003, all Asean leaders
have supported it.

However, the ongoing Asean Regional Forum in Laos will tomorrow demand
that Burma undertake "democratic dialogue" with all parties and readmit
special UN envoy Razali Ismail, according to a draft document obtained by
the AFP news agency.

Razali, who is leading the UN’s reconciliation efforts in Burma, was
earlier this week refused an audience with Burmese foreign minister Nyan
Win at the Vientiane meeting. A Malaysian diplomat appointed special UN
envoy to Burma in 2000, Razali has several times attempted to push for
reconciliation between the junta and pro-democracy forces, despite not
having been allowed back into the country for more than a year.

Rangoon has claimed that it relinquished the Asean chair because it wants
“to focus its attention on the ongoing National Convention and
democratization process,” though no time frame has been given.

_____________________________________

July 28, Agence France Presse
Chinese FM meets Myanmar's military leader

Yangon: Chinese Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing on Thursday met senior
leaders of military-ruled Myanmar including the country's supremo Than
Shwe, Chinese embassy sources and Chinese state media said.

Li, who trimmed his time at ASEAN meetings in Laos on Wednesday for a
24-hour state visit to Myanmar, met the junta's reclusive leader Senior
General Than Shwe and Prime Minister General Soe Win separately at the
parliament building, embassy sources said.
They discussed cooperation between the two countries aimed at improving
bilateral ties, the source added, declining to elaborate further.

Myanmar's leaders told Li they wanted to boost economic and trade
relations and cooperation in sectors including infrastructure and power
generation, China's official Xinhua news agency said on its website.

Myanmar on Tuesday withdrew from taking the alphabetically rotating
chairmanship of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in 2006,
because it wanted to focus on its "national reconciliation and
democratisation process," ASEAN leaders said in a statement.

While Myanmar is an international pariah, especially after the months-long
row over the ASEAN leadership issue and its continued detention of
opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, it remains a close ally of China.

Li was due to return to Beijing on Thursday evening.

_____________________________________
BUSINESS / FINANCE

July 27, Mizzima
Currency deflation freezes Sino-Burmese border trade – Myo Gyi

Trade and business came to halt following a sudden deflation of Burmese
currency against the exchange rates of Chinese Yuan at Sino-Burmese
border.

Following the blast at a Rangoon trade centre in May, the Burmese currency
has been steadily falling against the Chinese Yuan at the border, said a
local businessman at the Burmese border town of Muse.

The currency deflation has put most Burmese traders, who are trading
mainly on the Muse-Mandalay Road, Loije - Bamo Road and Laiza - Myitkyina
Road, in a spot he said.

"Since the bomb blast in Rangoon trade centre, the Burmese currency has
been steadily declining in value. Before the blast, the exchange rates in
the border were 100 Kyats equal to 00. 9 Yuan. But after the blast it
declined and last week it was 00.82 Yuan. It is still declining, and day
before yesterday it touched 00.66 Yuan. Burmese businessmen are unwilling
to do any transactions," the local businessman told Mizzima News.

Since the devaluation of the Burmese currency, traders in Muse and other
Sino-Burmese border towns, are stocking piling goods and commodities, and
are not willing to part with it fearing a loss.

"We cannot sell everything at once. We have to sell as per demand. When we
bought the goods, we paid 00.9 for the exchange rates but now it is only
00.66. So we are losing and cannot sell the goods in Chinese currency.
Some traders, in business on loan which account for interest rates are hit
the hardest," he explained.

The trade-halt is shared by truckers, who have to stop hitting the roads
due to scarce traders and travelers. Only vehicles seen on the highways
are private small vehicles. "Some small vehicles carrying passengers are
still operating but not goods trucks," said a truck driver of Laiza area.

The border trade department officials, who collect illegal taxes from
traders, reportedly complained of the freeze in trade, as they are
deprived of additional income.

"They get a lot of taxes, from flourishing trade. They send money back
home and support their families with this income. But at times like this,
they suffer because they are unable to manage on their salary," explained
the businessman.

____________________________________
REGIONAL

July 28, Irrawaddy
Rangoon and Beijing’s quiet diplomacy – Aung Lwin Oo

A top Chinese diplomat’s decision to back out of a regional security
meeting in Laos in favor of a visit to Rangoon came only a day after the
military-ruled Burma backed out of an opportunity to assume the chair of
Asean in 2006.

Chinese Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing (left) chats with Burmese Senior
General Than Shwe during their meeting in Rangoon, Burma, July 28, 2005.

Originally planning to stay until Friday, Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing cut
short his meeting with the 24-member Asean Regional Forum in Vientiane
Wednesday and headed off to the Burmese capital. When asked the reason for
his change of plans, Li said only that Burma was “the only country in
Asean I’ve never visited.”

Li is now the fourth top diplomat to skip the annual security forum,
following US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, Japanese foreign
minister Nobutaka Machimura and India’s foreign minister Natawar Singh.

Thai Foreign Minister Kantathi Suphamongkhon expressed concern and
surprise at “the last minute take-off of the Chinese foreign minister.”

Li is expected to meet with the Burmese junta’s top brass, including
Snr-Gen Than Shwe and Prime Minister Soe Win.

Officials at the Chinese embassy in Rangoon were unavailable to comment on
the matter, though Aung Kyaw Zaw, a China-based dissident, quoted China’s
Foreign Office in Beijing as saying that “only low-level diplomats remain
for the forum and that’s the reason why he left the meeting.”

Observers, however, believe that Beijing wanted Rangoon to accept the
Asean chair next year and are upset with the regional grouping and the
junta for failing to secure it. “For China, it’s a defeat on the
diplomatic front in the face of western power,” said Nyo Ohn Myint, a
member of the exiled National League for Democracy-Liberated Area’s
foreign affairs committee. “I think China is worried that the junta’s
attitude attracts western interference.”

Li is the second diplomat to visit Burma this week, with Thailand’s deputy
prime minister Surakiart Sathirathai having made a one-day trip on Monday.
On his return, Surakiart said that he discussed strengthening bilateral
cooperation with the regime to help the suppression of narcotics and human
trafficking.

____________________________________
ASEAN

July 28, Associated Press
Myanmar's ASEAN sacrifice gives it free hand at home, say analysts – Grant
Peck

Myanmar's sacrifice of the Southeast Asian bloc's chairmanship next year
may win the plaudits of fellow members in the 10-nation group, but changes
nothing in the military-ruled country, analysts say.

If anything, the junta's bow to the entreaties of its partners in the
Association of Southeast Asian Nations eases pressure on it to make
concessions where they count: inside the country, where hundreds of
dissidents including Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi remain incarcerated.

At the same time, it also gives breathing room to ASEAN, facing intense
heat from the United States and Europe to take a tough posture toward the
military regime, reviled for its dismal human rights record and
undemocratic rule.

Diplomacy, not democracy, was the bottom-line concern of ASEAN, which in
effect was told by the United States and the European Union: it's Myanmar
or us. The junta's step-down freed them from the dilemma.

"I think there is a sense of relief on the part of the ASEAN countries,"
said Aung Zaw, editor of The Irrawaddy, a Thailand-based magazine and Web
site put out by exiled Myanmar journalists. "It was very much in the
self-interest of ASEAN."

The move to get Myanmar, also known as Burma, to cede the 2006 chair was
spearheaded by Washington, with the ultimate aim of making it hand over
power to a democratically elected government and to free Suu Kyi.

The U.S. had threatened to boycott any ASEAN meetings next year if they
were hosted by Myanmar in its capacity of ASEAN chairman. This raised the
specter of a rift between ASEAN and its major security and trade partner.

"It was only this year that ASEAN spoke out about Burma because of the
pressure of the U.S, the E.U. and so forth. ASEAN freaked out - they were
not worried about the Burmese people, or Aung San Suu Kyi, or political
prisoners, or any of those sorts of problems," said Aung Zaw.

Myanmar Foreign Minister Nyan Win told ASEAN colleagues this week during
an annual meeting in Laos that his government was giving up the
chairmanship because it wanted to give its "full attention" to its
"ongoing national reconciliation and democratization process."

The junta - formally known as the State Peace and Development Council, or
SPDC - took the path of least resistance by yielding its right to chair
ASEAN, said analysts.

"They lose nothing by not doing so for the time being," suggests Robert
Taylor, a longtime specialist in Myanmar politics based in London. "In
fact, they now are in a position to tell their ASEAN partners that they
all are in the SPDC's debt and can also chair any time they choose."

According to Mary Callahan, an assistant professor of international
relations at the University of Washington, the junta "tends to solve
problems on an ad hoc basis, looking for short-term, tactical payoffs that
rarely connect up with any strategic objective other than a general one of
maintaining stability and keeping itself in power."

"I never saw any evidence that the ASEAN chair meant that much to the
generals, and certainly not as much as outsiders claimed it did," she
said. "I don't think either ASEAN or the international community has much
leverage at this point to try to encourage or force reform in Burma."

Before Myanmar's announcement, its problems had split ASEAN. On one side
were the five founding members - Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines,
Singapore and Thailand - who wanted it to give up the chairmanship. The
junta's supporters were Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia - all with
authoritarian governments, like Myanmar.

By giving up the chairmanship, the split has only been patched up for now
and the issue can erupt again in two years when it's time for Myanmar to
decide if it wants to chair or not.

Myanmar has been under military rule since 1962. The current junta came to
power in 1988 after crushing a pro-democracy movement. It called elections
in 1990 but refused to hand over power when Suu Kyi's party won.

It has survived international pressure by a mixture of defiance, iron-grip
rule and support from key friends, who were drawn to its gas and timber
and other commodities and its strategic location between China and the
Indian Ocean.

In recent years, even as the West has imposed economic and political
sanctions on Myanmar - the U.S. in 2003 banned virtually all imports from
the country - Asian nations have offered trade, aid and investment that
sustains an otherwise moribund economy. Countries whose companies have
signed multimillion dollar contracts in the crucial oil and gas sector
include China, India, South Korea, Thailand and Singapore.

____________________________________

July 28, Voice of America
Pro-democracy activists applaud move to make Burma's military leaders skip
ASEAN Chair – Ron Corben

Pro-democracy activists in Asia are applauding the decision for Burma to
skip its turn chairing the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian
Nations next year. The move came this week at the annual ASEAN foreign
ministers meeting in response to intense pressure on Burma's military
rulers to deliver on promised reforms first.

A group of Southeast Asian parliamentary members are praising ASEAN
foreign ministers for their "skillful diplomacy" in convincing Burma to
forego the chair of ASEAN in 2006.

The lobby - known officially as the Inter-parliamentary Caucus on
Democracy in Burma - has been vocal in urging their governments to press
Burma to reform and release of political prisoners - especially democracy
leader Aung San Suu Kyi.

The caucus includes lawmakers from Malaysia, the Philippines, Indonesia,
Singapore and Thailand.

Malaysian caucus member Teresa Kok, says now the task remains for ASEAN
governments to get Burma to actually implement the democratic reforms it
promised to two years ago - including a constitution and elections.

"They shouldn't be too soft on Burma because compared to other countries
(in Asia) Burma is the worst in terms of human rights and democracy
records. So ASEAN should continue to also demonstrate its ability to bring
change in Burma through the network of ASEAN," said Peresa Kok.

This is the first time ASEAN has appeared to deviate from its policy of
non-intervention in the internal affairs of member states.

The issue had split ASEAN along political lines. Democratic governments
feared Burmese leadership could taint the credibility of ASEAN. But
authoritarian-ruled nations like Vietnam and Laos opposed pressuring
Burma.

The United States and European Union had threatened to boycott the
meetings in 2006 if Burma hosted.

Debbie Stoddard, coordinator of the Bangkok-based Alternative ASEAN
Network on Burma, says the country will suffer economically from skipping
its chance host ASEAN - after it spent money on infrastructure
improvements without recouping revenue.

"For many people in Burma - especially in Rangoon - [taking up] the chair
of ASEAN represented a chance to revive the local economy. So the chance
to make that money has gone - at least for the next 12 months," she said.

Ms. Stoddard, other activists and analysts remain skeptical however if
economic disincentives - including long standing Western sanctions on
Rangoon - will make an impact. Burma has been under military rule since
1962. The current generals have been in power since 1988 and nullified the
1990 elections when the democratic opposition won.

_____________________________________

July 28, Agence France Presse
Mahathir says Myanmar forgoing ASEAN chair a positive sign

Kuala Lumpur: Former Malaysian leader Mahathir Mohamad said Thursday that
Myanmar's decision to forgo its turn as ASEAN chair was a positive sign,
but that persuading the ruling generals to shift to democracy was hard.

"I think the fact that Myanmar chose voluntarily to give up the
chairmanship is a sign that Myanmar is sensitive to thinkings of other
people," said Mahathir, a staunch ally of the junta when he was in power.

"I am hopeful for Myanmar," he said at an Asian economic conference.

Mahathir, who engineered Myanmar's entry into the Association of Southeast
Asian Nations (ASEAN), said however that democratic reforms would not come
quickly.

"We need to persuade Myanmar, maybe to adopt gradually a greater degree of
democracy. You find it difficult to persuade them, because you know what
happens to dictators who accepted democracy -- they were thrown into
jail," he said.

Mahathir said the military regime needed to be assured that if they made
reforms they would not face prosecution, and that he had personally tried
to persuade the generals not to fear democracy.

In recent years, Mahathir has grown increasingly vocal about the junta and
called for the release of pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi who is
under her third stint of house arrest.

"It is unfortunate for Aung San Suu Kyi, she will have to put up with this
for a long time but change has to be slow if it is not going to be too
disruptive," he said.

Myanmar on Tuesday announced that it would pass up the chairmanship of the
10-member ASEAN grouping it was due to assume in 2006 after pressure from
member countries as well as the United States and Europe.

The junta has launched a reform road map but critics have dismissed the
process as a sham because it does not include the main opposition National
League for Democracy, which won 1990 elections but was never allowed to
rule.

_____________________________________
INTERNATIONAL

July 28, Associated Press
U.S. official likens situation in Myanmar to cancer as Washington renews
sanctions – Vijay Joshi

A top U.S. diplomat gave a public dressing down to the Myanmar foreign
minister at an Asia-Pacific security meeting Thursday, saying his
military-ruled country was like a cancer that threatens democracy in the
region.

Deputy Secretary of State Robert Zoellick told reporters that he made the
U.S. displeasure clear during a 24-country meeting of foreign ministers
that included Nyan Win of Myanmar. The country is also known as Burma.

"As I mentioned in our session today we believe the situation has
deteriorated in Burma, not taken a better course," Zoellick told a joint
news conference of the ministers with Nyan Win sitting stony-faced in
front of him on the dais.

Nyan Win did not respond and it was not immediately known if he had
replied to Zoellick during the closed-door meetings of the ministers.

The United States has been pressuring the Association of Southeast Asian
Nations, of which Myanmar is a member, to free opposition leader Aung San
Suu Kyi and other political prisoners, and to restore democracy that has
largely been denied since 1962 when the military took power.

The U.S. pressure, backed by the EU, resulted in Myanmar forgoing on
Tuesday its rotating chairmanship of ASEAN in 2006, saving the 10-member
bloc from a potentially damaging standoff with Washington. The U.S. had
threatened to boycott ASEAN meetings.

Suu Kyi, who won the 1991 Nobel Peace Prize for her efforts to remove the
junta with nonviolence, has spent 10 of the last 16 years in custody. She
was last arrested in May 2003 and remains under house arrest.

Zoellick said that when he attended an ASEAN meeting in the early 90s he
spoke about the "terrible" way in which Suu Kyi has been treated.

"And here the situation remains," he said, noting that Myanmar has put
more dissidents in jail over the years instead of freeing them.

"The point that I tried to make is that countries that have political
problems like this, they actually become problems for the rest of us
because it creates cancers within their societies that have a danger of
spreading," he said.

The United States is, however, pleased that ASEAN managed to get Myanmar
to relinquish the chairmanship, Zoellick said.

On Wednesday, President George W. Bush signed into law the extension of
sanctions against Myanmar one day before they were to have expired. Both
the House of Representatives and the Senate overwhelmingly passed the
sanctions renewal last week. Without Bush's signature, they would have
expired Thursday.

One condition for removing the sanctions is that the generals must release
Suu Kyi, whose party won elections called by the junta in 1990 but was not
allowed to take power. No elections have been held since then.

The U.S. sanctions deny importation of any article produced in Myanmar
until the junta has improved its human rights record and made "substantial
progress" toward implementing a democratic government.

_____________________________________
OPINION / OTHER

July 28, The Straits Times
Myanmar must do more

Myanmar’s decision to stand down from the rotating chair of Asean next
year is a relief to its members. But, while welcome, it would not solve
the nagging question of Myanmar's suitability. It only defers what could
turn out to be a recurrent problem. The country's junta has endured for
years the sanctions and purple prose of the Western bloc, with no obvious
signs of distress. It has deflected the ever edgier 'entreaties' of
certain of its Asean peers, comfortable in the knowledge Asean would not
suspend its membership without doing its image harm.

The Asean foreign ministers' statement announcing Myanmar's decision on
Tuesday said Yangon could take the chair when it was 'ready'. This may be
read as a pro-forma courtesy but the junta is better off pondering the
nation's membership obligations in the grouping. One of these is to
promote the collective interest. But Yangon's dogged insistence on
sticking to its own conduct of political engagement - overturning election
results, jailing opposition politicians as a matter of routine, neglecting
the rights of minorities - was attracting for Asean unwanted notice.

Worse, it has hampered its work. Japan and the United States, each
important to the grouping's ambitions for security stability, are being
represented by their deputy foreign ministers at the Asean Regional Forum
taking place in Vientiane. There is little to be gained from criticising
either country for acting churlish - official explanations given have been
artless - but the fact remains that Asean's effectiveness is also
derivative, not confined to reinforcing members' strengths. Asean should
hold the Myanmar government to its undertaking that it is passing up the
chair so as to concentrate on 'national reconciliation and (the)
democratization process'. Passing it off as diplomatese would give Yangon
an out.

But the signs are not hopeful. The conviction on corruption charges last
week of former prime-minister Khin Nyunt (he received a 44-year sentence,
converted to house arrest) is a reminder that the endless power play among
the generals consumes the leaders' attention at the expense of earnest
political reform. Yangon's refusal to receive two United Nations envoys,
the Secretary-General's special representative and its human rights
investigator, is indicative of the junta's isolationist frame of mind.

_____________________________________

July 28, The Nation
Burmese junta has five years to clean up its act - Kavi Chongkittavorn

Member states want to decide whether Rangoon has done enough to warrant
becoming chair of body. While the Association of South-East Asian Nations
(Asean) has delayed Burma from chairing its annual meeting the group faces
a new challenge concerning how to guard its reputation over the next few
years.

Burma has voluntarily postponed its chairmanship next year.

This followed months of pressure from Asean politicians and their
governments in the core countries of Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, the
Philippines and Singapore.

Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia did not take part in the lobbying, as they said
they believed such pressures could be construed as an act of interference
in Burma’s internal affairs.

Nonetheless, half of the Asean members calling on one of the other members
to forego the chair is unprecedented in Asean is 37-year history.

Laotian Foreign Minister Somsavat Lengsavat told reporters that Burma had
decided to forego the chair next year to focus its attention on the
ongoing national reconciliation and democratisation process.

Somsavat said that once Burma was ready to take its turn to be the Asean
chair, it would do so.

The question is whether Asean or Burma will certify that the country is
ready to take the post.

What will be the benchmark? And will it be Asean or Burma who decide?

Burmese Foreign Minister Nyan Win told Asean ministers at the morning
retreat on Tuesday that his country would forego the Asean chairmanship
next year.

Burma had already informed some of the Asean countries that it would make
a public statement to that affect at the summit in Kuala Lumpur in
December.

Thai Foreign Minister Kantathi Suphamongkhon was the first Asean leader to
comment on Burma’s withdrawal, saying that Rangoon had made the decision
of its own free will without pressure from the group.

Kantathi also stressed that Burma could resume the chairmanship next time
around, outlining that it would not have to wait another 10 years, as it
was at the front of the queue.

However, just how long Burma will have to wait to be chairman of the
regional body will depend on the support and political will of member
states.

The current rotation among Aseanís 10 member countries will end in 2010.

It starts with Malaysia next year followed by the Philippines, Singapore,
Thailand and Vietnam respectively.

An Asean insider, who asked not to be named, said that the group would
need to be satisfied with developments inside Burma before Rangoon is
allowed to take the chair, otherwise Asean could prevent Burma taking the
role.

This presents a de-facto five-year timeframe for Burma to clean up its
act, especially in terms of political reforms and human rights.

The Rangoon junta, of course, believes it has a win-win formula for the
future and is hoping for a new government to be recognised by the end of
next year.

At the press conference in Vientiane, Nyan Win said that the government
was still committed to its seven-point road map as well as drafting a new
constitution and national referendum.

Those processes will take at least 18 months. By December next year, Burma
hopes to know whether it will also be able to host the summit. It is
unclear at the moment if the postponement will include the summit.

During the Asean summit in Hanoi in 2000, the ministerial and summit
meetings were realigned to follow one another.

If the Asean foreign ministers chose to interpret the summit as a separate
entity then Burma could still be eligible to host the summit, which is far
more valuable than the ministerial meeting, which is also less
controversial because there are no leaders from Western countries in
attendance.

Meanwhile, the international community including the US and EU will
continue to press for the release of Aung San Suu Kyi and the 1300 or so
political prisoners who remain locked up in Burma.

In a statement issued Wednesday, US Senator Mitch McConnell called on the
UN Security Council to discuss and debate the threat the junta poses to
its own people and the region.

Russia and China have so far blocked such attempts.

US President George W Bush is expected to sign the Burmese Freedom and
Democracy Act of 2003 in the near future.

Both the US Senate and House have already passed the Act to support the
democratisation process inside Burma.

_____________________________________

July 28, Malaysiakini
Asean has found its spine – Debbie Stothard

Thwarted. That must be how Senior-General Than Shwe is feeling this week in
Rangoon. Despite his refusal to speak on the matter, the dear general must
have been eagerly looking forward to presiding over his Asean colleagues
at key meetings in Rangoon, but this was not to be.

In the past year the domestic media hyped up preparations for the Asean
chair. Despite the shrinking economy, projects to upgrade hotels, meeting
facilities and Rangoon's notorious roads were started.

In April, even as Asean foreign ministers were publicly admitting that the
Burma chair was a bad idea, it was declared that preparations for the
Burma chairmanship were "on course".

In late May, three weeks after bombs wrecked two shopping centres and the
Yangon Convention Centre which was being renovated to host Asean meetings,
the regime that calls itself the State Peace and Development Council
(SPDC) awarded Singapore information technology company CNA Group a $10.6
million deal to expand Rangoon's International Airport.

It certainly looked as if wannabe Emperor Than Shwe was determined not to
let a couple of bombs and unprecedented statements by Asean leaders get in
the way of the legitimacy and prestige he could derive from the chair (or
possibly in his mind, the 'throne').

When matters became increasingly heated, the general and his boys even
resorted to playing the China card. Two weeks ago, Thailand-based
activists were told that China supported the regime's 'right' to chair
Asean.

Diplomats, media and activists were being encouraged to think that with
China acting as their 'godfather', the SPDC was invincible, that Asean
would cower in fright and withdraw its objections.

Strategy backfired

It would appear that the strategy backfired. Under a Burma chair, the USA
and other Western partners were likely to downgrade or even boycott the
key Asean meetings. Without their presence to counterweight China, many
Asean governments would have shuddered at the possibility of being
swallowed up when all they wanted is lots of profitable economic
engagement.

So, a compromise was reached. The Asean foreign ministers tried to be
gentle as possible, but beyond the diplomatic, face-saving text of the
announcement confirming Burma's deferral, it is clear that Asean finally
put its foot down.


>From the Burmese regime's point of view, compromise is a sign of weakness.

This decision would definitely demoralise them as they would interpret it
as a defeat.

Pro-democracy and ethnic nationality movements in Burma should feel
encouraged that they are not alone. Many Asean countries have openly made
a stand for human rights and democracy in their country.

While like me, many human rights activists must be delighted that Asean
has finally found its spine, it had better learn to sit up straight and be
pro-active about human rights and democracy in the region.

The deferral should not be an excuse to forget about Burma for the next 12
months. Asean must finally learn that consistent pressure produces
stronger results than unconditional engagement.

Asean must keep up the pressure to ensure that the Burmese regime actually
delivers genuine national reconciliation and democratisation as promised.
Otherwise, Burma will continue to threaten regional security and fester
like a thorn in Asean's side.

_____________________________________
ANNOUNCEMENT

July 28, Casa Asia
Intensive Burmese language course – September 2005, Barcelona

This course will be given by John Okell, and provides the opportunity, for
the first time in Catalunya and Spain, to follow one of the famous
intensive courses which he has been teaching in the United Kingdom, United
States and Thailand, Burmese by Ear.

Burmese by Ear or Essential Myanmar is a systematically graded foundation
course in modern colloquial Burmese.  It aims to give you a confident and
enjoyable start in speaking Burmese, focusing on what you are most likely
to need when you visit Burma: "survival language" for cafés, taxis, shops,
and so on, and "social language" for getting to know people and making
friends.

Dates: 2 -16 September 2005
Price: 200 euros

Location
Casa Asia
Av. Diagonal, 373
08008 Barcelona

For more information please visit the link for the course:
http://www.casaasia.es/GestorPeticiones?aplicacion=educacion&origen=listado_eventos&destino=evento_educacion&codigo=1043