BurmaNet News, February 7, 2006

[Editor]

February 7, 2006 Issue # 2895

INSIDE BURMA
Irrawaddy: Regime nervous about US and Thai intentions
Mizzima: Pyinmana move creates problems for Karen: KNU
DVB: Christians barred from worshipping in Rangoon
DVB: Private tuition school forced to close down by Burmese authorities
DVB: Political prisoner Tun Lin Kyaw is seriously ill
Bangkok Post: Burma capital 'unfit to live'

ON THE BORDER
DVB: Thai PM says Karen refugees at Mae-La to be sent back to Burma

REGIONAL
Mizzima: Indian politician accuses Burmese junta of drugs and arms dealing
New Age via BBC: Bangladesh-Burma road link plan faces uncertain future
Japan Economic Newswire: Myanmar delegation to visit China on Feb. 14-18

INTERNATIONAL
Irrawaddy: Burmese in Europe concern over EU move

OPINION / OTHER
Ottawa Citizen: Economic sanctions just never seem to work

____________________________________
INSIDE BURMA

February 07, Irrawaddy
Regime nervous about US and Thai intentions

A “top secret” document obtained by The Irrawaddy reveals that Burma’s
military leaders are fearful of possible attack or invasion by the US, and
closely monitors Thailand, which is one of the US’s most important allies
in the region.

The document indicates that junta leader Snr-Gen Than Shwe, who is also
commander of the armed forces, and other top army leaders including army
commander and junta number two Deputy Snr-Gen Maung Aye, had instructed
the armed forces to prepare “for the worst and hope for the best.”

The leaders warned that the country must be guarded against an alleged
destruction plan by the US Central Intelligence Agency. The administration
of President George W Bush remains one of the Burmese regime’s most vocal
critics, and some observers believe that the regime’s decision to move its
administrative capital to Pyinmana, central Burma, was based on fears of a
US invasion, as well as other security worries.

The secret document says regional commanders were told to watch or monitor
the activities of the chief opposition party, the National League for
Democracy, which won a general election in 1990, which was ignored by the
regime.

The document also indicates that one top army commander reportedly said
that if the US bombs Rangoon, or second city Mandalay, “we have to make
sure to kill all NLD members.” The NLD would otherwise be used as US
stooges, the document suggests. The military leaders called for troops to
remain on the alert and to keep monitoring NLD strength, noting those who
were strong supporters of the party and the hardliners among them.

Burmese leaders were uncomfortable about the US’s close relations with
Thailand, particularly after US President George W Bush publicly announced
the designation of Thailand as a “major non-NATO Ally” during his visit to
Thailand in October 2003.

The document also says that senior military leaders wanted to counter
Thailand’s annual joint military exercises with the US, known as “Cobra
Gold.” It adds that Burma will match “Cobra Gold” with an “Operation
Hawk,” though it did not elaborate on the nature of this exercise.

The Thai annual exercise once took place along the Thai-Burmese border.
That exercise was held under the command of former Thai army chief Gen
Surayuth Chulanont, setting off alarm bells in Rangoon.

The deep-seated mistrust between Burma and Thailand dates back centuries
to the wars between Siamese and Burmese rulers, culminating in the
destruction of the Siamese capital, Ayutthaya, in 1767.

The two countries continue to monitor the activities of each other’s armed
forces.

____________________________________

February 7, Mizzima News
Pyinmana move creates problems for Karen: KNU - Kanyamaw

The Burmese military's move to Pyinmana has brought more troops and
restrictions into Karen State’s Thandaung and Htantapin regions, according
to the Karen National Union.

Thandaung and Htantapin are about 80 kilometers from Pyinmana and the
junta has sent special commandos to train in Thandaung.

KNU official Saw Hla Ngwe said three batches of troops from battalion 66
moved to Thandaung this month. They had come previously in June 2005 but
did not stay more than a few months.

"Now it seems that the [military] want to dominate the region to use for
their military purpose. Compare Taungoo to other Karen districts now,
there are more oppression, killing and landmines," he said.

He said troops from the Burmese military's battalion 124 created
checkpoints on many roads in the area late last year making trade
difficult for people in surrounding villages.

The military are also reported to be planting landmines along trade routes
and outside marketplaces to restrict the movement of villagers. The
military have defended the move by saying the mines were designed to
protect the new capital.

Last month, two civilians were killed and five injured by mines recently
laid by the Burmese military. Residents have also reported that Burmese
troops destroyed several bridges in the area.

"The military government wants to get rid of the Karen army movement in
the area because it’s near to the new capital and their commando
training," Saw Hla Ngwe said adding that the Karen National Liberation
Army had started detecting and destroying mines in the area.

On January 21, five Karen villagers from Sha Say Boe and Yan Shar in
Thandaung, were shot dead by troops from battalion 48.
____________________________________

February 6, Democratic Voice of Burma
Christians barred from worshipping in Rangoon

The local authorities at Rangoon Insein Township ordered the worshippers
who attended the local Phawkkan evangelical church on 5 February to report
their presence to the local authority office.

On 3 February, the ward authority chairman Myint Swe issued an edict
banning worshipping at the church. But around 50 worshippers defied the
order and attended a church service on 5 February.

DVB contacted Insein Township authority chairman Win Lwin for comments
about the report, but he refused to do so.

The head of Burmese evangelical church Rev. Sein Lwin told DVB that
despite the pressures and the danger of arrest, his congregation will
continue to hold religious meetings and pray.

____________________________________

February 6, Democratic Voice of Burma
Private tuition school forced to close down by Burmese authorities

The authorities at Pa-an in eastern Burma’s Karen State, on 2 February,
out of the blue ordered the closure of a private tuition school managed by
the husband of the local elected representative (Member of Parliament),
Nant Khin Htway Myint.

Mya Ywet Wa private tuition school, which has been run by Thant Zin for
more than three years with the permission of the authorities, was forced
to close down by the township education chief with the excuse that it is
‘not in accordance with the laws’.

To make the matter worse, more than 20 Tenth Standard pupils who have been
preparing to take their looming matriculation exams, were interrogated day
and night by the education chief and other authorities. The authorities
are also pressurising the pupils’ parents to call back their children
causing unnecessary stress and anxiety to them.

Observers said that the closure of the school is one of the deliberate
efforts of the authorities to pile more pressure on Khin Htway Myint who
is one the main active NLD MPs.

____________________________________

February 6, Democratic Voice of Burma
Political prisoner Tun Lin Kyaw is seriously ill

Burmese political prisoner Tun Lin Kyaw who is serving a seven year
sentence at the notorious Rangoon Insein Jail, is being hospitalised at an
‘outside’ hospital because his health condition deteriorated badly.

Tun Lin Kyaw, who has been suffering from chronic tuberculosis, started to
vomit blood on 2 February and he was hospitalised in emergency at Insein
Township General Hospital.

As soon as he was settled in the hospital, Tun Lin Kyaw’s feet were
chained to the posts of the hospital bed, some National League for
Democracy (NLD) said. At the moment, he is taking anti-TB medicines and he
is due to be discharged from the hospital on 8 February. According to
sources close to his family members, Tun Lin Kyaw is extremely thin and
weak.

Tun Lin Kyaw is a youth member of Rangoon Dagon NLD and was responsible
for the personal safety of democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi. On 14
December 2004, he was arrested for staging a solo protest in front of a
church on Rangoon Barr Street in protest of the continued detention of
her. He was sentenced to 7 years in prison with the infamous Act – 5J in
February 2005.
____________________________________

February 7, Bangkok Post
Burma capital 'unfit to live'

The US-sponsored Radio Free Asia reported this morning that the new
Burmese capital city is not ready for officials and their families, and
many are quitting or fleeing.

There was no way to confirm the report on the new capital, since Burma has
banned all foreign and most Burmese travel to the town, close to Pyinmana,
in the middle of the country and isolated by surrounding jungle.

RFA said the new city lacks schools, housing and other critical services
for relocated civil servants and their families, with some officials
resigning in protest at the move, according to a government official who
fled the country.

"Those who are not able to go abroad have no choice, but if the government
allowed resigning most of them would have gone," the official said on
condition of anonymity. He asked that neither the ministry in which he
once worked nor the Asian country where he is now staying be identified.

Most ministries are scheduled to start operations from the new capital
this week, in a remote jungle town near Pyinmana, about 600 kilometres
(370 miles) north of Rangoon, the official said.

The junta announced in November that it was relocating the capital from
Rangoon because Pyinmana was a more strategic venue.

Civil servants have been relocating in groups, the official said, but some
simply left the keys to their new offices on their desks and quit without
notice, after their resignation letters were turned down by their
ministries, he said. "I am one of them. I did it to escape," he said.

Housing conditions for civil servants in the new capital were
"deplorable," the official said, citing "a mudslide down to the temporary
huts where we have to take shelter
 The jungle surrounding the place is
also [a]malaria risk area."

"It is just like being interned in a camp...When the sun is out it is dry,
but when it rains it becomes muddy and the mud flows into our huts," he
added. "No running water is available, no drainage system exists. As you
know, everything was carried out without any plan at all."

"I think perhaps that conditions at the refugee camps on the Thai-Burma
border would be better than that."

Many civil servants were unhappy with the short notice they received about
the impending move and were afraid because they knew most of the
construction workers in the area suffered from malaria, the official said.
The area also lacked schools for officials’ children and a hospital, he
said.

The junta, which has run the country since 1962, has said it needs a
centrally located "command and control center," although some analysts
believe the move was prompted by fears of possible internal unrest.

The ruling State Peace and Development Council quietly began building the
new capital more than three years ago by first building facilities and
bunkers for top officials.

____________________________________
ON THE BORDER

February 6, Democratic Voice of Burma
Thai PM says Karen refugees at Mae-La to be sent back to Burma

Thailand’s Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra on 4 February visited Mae-La
Burmese refugee camp situated on the Thai-Burmese border with 20 western
diplomats, and he was quoted as saying that there are plans to send
refugees back to their original places.

Many refugees are said to be very worried that they might be forcibly
repatriated despite lack of security at home but one refugee told DVB that
the plans would not be possible for awhile as the locations are not ready
for the refugees to resettle.

There are more than 40,000 Karen refugees in Mae-La who fled from their
homes due to the attacks of Burmese army and it is extraordinary that the
Thai Prime Minister himself visited the camp for the first time and made
the comment thus.

When asked if the visit and the comment of Thaksin have any connection
with the ongoing talks between the Karen National Union (KNU) and the
ruling military junta, State Peace and Development Council (SPDC), KNU
General Secretary Mahn Sha said:

“He made the visit because he believes that as the Prime Minister he
should take action on the problem arising from a neighbouring country,”
said Mahn Sha. He added that the Thai PM’s visit is not a result of the
talks between the SPDC and the KNU, or that there is peace or there will
be peace soon in Karen State that the Karen refugees could be sent back to
their villages. “The international community has been highlighting the
plights of the refugees considerably and he needs to show that he is
dealing with the matter properly,” Mahn Sha insisted.

____________________________________
REGIONAL

February 6, Mizzima News
Indian politician accuses Burmese junta of drugs and arms dealing

The leader of an Indian political party has accused the Burmese military
of supporting illegal drugs and arms smuggling across the Indo-Burma
border.

G. Devarajan, national secretary of the leftwing All India Forward Bloc
told Mizzima today he thought the military were supporting narcotics and
arms traders.

"Without the [the military's] help it is not possible for drugs smuggling
in the border areas," Devarajan told Mizzima after speaking at the two-day
National Reconciliation in Burma seminar in New Delhi.

According to the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, Burma is the
world's second largest opium producer after Afghanistan.

Subir Bhowmick, the BBC's east India correspondent said evidence and
reports had shown Burmese arms dealers were supplying weapons to insurgent
groups in India's northeastern states including Manipur, Mizoram, Assam
and Nagaland.

"China is a single largest seller of weapons
 and Burmese arms dealers are
selling in the northeast region such as Manipur and Assam. The Indian
Government has been trying to crush this issue in the border region,"
Bhowmick told Mizzima.

The Indian Narcotics Control Bureau has rejected claims drugs and weapons
were being smuggled across the Burmese border into India.

In a prior interview with Mizzima Rajiv Walia, deputy director general of
the bureau, said the flow of drugs from Burma to India had been contained.

____________________________________

February 7, New Age via BBC
Bangladesh-Burma road link plan faces uncertain future - Zahedul Islam

Apparent unwillingness and non-cooperative attitude of Yangon [Rangoon]
have thrown the future of the proposed road link between Bangladesh and
Myanmar [Burma] into uncertainty.

Sources in the communications ministry have said despite repeated requests
from the Bangladesh government since September last year to finalize a
framework of agreement on the road link, the Myanmar government has not
made any response as yet.

Earlier, in September a three-member delegation led by the communications
secretary Shafiqul Islam, went to Yangon [Rangoon] to finalize the
framework of the agreement to implement the first phase of the proposed
road link. In the meeting Yangon agreed to sign the agreement after
bringing some minor changes in the text.

"Though Dhaka has already made the changes in the text accordingly and
informed Yangon about the matter with a request to sign agreement, the
latter has not made any response as yet," said a top official of the
communications ministry.

According to the framework of the agreement, Bangladesh and Myanmar will
be responsible for planning, construction and maintenance of the road.
Both countries will make land available, free of charge, for the proposed
road as well as for camping facilities for construction personnel,
equipment and supplies.

Earlier in July, the proposed road link had suffered a big setback Yangon
expressed its unwillingness to finalize the agreement citing its inability
to finance the Myanmar portion of the road. It said the project was not on
its priority list.

In a letter early July, Yangon said it would not provide funds from its
own resources or seek foreign funds to construct the Myanmar portion of
the 153-km road, and also turned down Bangladesh's proposal to persuade
donor countries to finance the project.
However, hopes for construction of the highway were revived as Yangon on
August 14 asked Dhaka to send a team to finalize the framework of the
agreement on the road link the draft of which was sent by Dhaka to Yangon
in June.

Following the invitation, Dhaka had sent the team.

The proposed road will stretch from Taungbro to Kyauktaw in Myanmar via
Ramu-Gundom to Cox's Bazar in Bangladesh, to be constructed in two phases
at an estimated cost of 933.46 crore taka [one crore = 10 million].

The Bangladesh government, according to the plan, will construct 43km
stretch of the road in the first phase, of which 20km will be in
Bangladesh and 23km in Myanmar, at a cost of 163.49 crore taka.

Of the total sum, 94 crore taka will be spent for building the 23km road
from Taungbro to Bawli Bazar inside Myanmar along with two bridges and 90
culverts.

Later, in the second phase, another 110km stretch from Bawli Bazar to
Kyautaw in Myanmar will be constructed at an estimated cost of 770.26
crore taka.

The proposed road link is also considered necessary to establish road
communications with Thailand and China and is in line with the
government's 'look east' policy.

____________________________________

February 7, Japan Economic Newswire
Myanmar delegation to visit China on Feb. 14-18

A Myanmar delegation including Prime Minister Soe Win will make an
official visit to China on Feb. 14-18 to try to fortify long-standing
friendly relations, the Chinese Foreign Ministry said Tuesday.

The prime minister's delegation, invited by Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao,
will visit Beijing and the provinces of Guangdong in the south and Shaanxi
in the north, ministry spokesman Kong Quan said.

Both countries are developing their economies and share a traditional
neighborly friendship, Kong said at a news briefing.

He said building bilateral relations would suit the interests of both sides.

Human rights issues Western governments have raised are Myanmar's internal
affair, Kong said. China hopes other countries will respect and help
Myanmar, he said.

____________________________________
INTERNATIONAL

February 07, Irrawaddy
Burmese in Europe concern over EU move

A group of Burmese exiles in Europe has voiced “deep concern” over the
EU’s decision to reconsider its visa ban on high-ranking Burmese
government and military officials. Dr Win Naing, spokesperson for the
Germany-based Forum of Burmese in Europe, told The Irrawaddy that the EU’s
possible about-turn “indicates a relaxing of the EU policy towards Burmese
military leaders.”

The possible reversal of the strict visa ban follows other events which
appear to point to a softening of the EU’s position on Burma, such as the
opening of a Burmese embassy in Brussels, the opening of the European
Community Humanitarian Office in Rangoon and the commission of a report by
researcher Robert Taylor, who is seen by many as an apologist for the
Burmese military regime.

EU foreign ministers addressed the visa ban at a General Affairs and
External Relations Council meeting in Brussels, during a discussion to try
and find a solution to the issue of Burmese ministers participating in the
various ASEM [Asia Europe Meeting] meetings to be held in Europe in 2006.
It is hoped ASEM might be a stage on which to engage the regime in human
rights and democracy discussions.

____________________________________
OPINION / OTHER

February 7, Ottawa Citizen
Economic sanctions just never seem to work - Jonathan Manthorpe, The
Vancouver Sun

Economic and other sanctions have for decades been the favourite
non-violent tool of the international community to try to bring down
regimes with appalling human rights records.

But it is near impossible to produce examples where sanctions can be shown
conclusively to have had the desired effect. In Cuba, Fidel Castro
continues to puff along despite 40 years of U.S. sanctions. The inevitable
scourge of time will likely take care of Castro well before Washington's
economic thumbscrews deliver convulsive pain.

White South Africans disliked being excluded from the sporting world, but
it was not sanctions that ended apartheid.

The stern burghers in Pretoria looked at the declining white population
and the booming black one and realized that within a decade there would
not be enough regime supporters to administer apartheid. With the collapse
of the Soviet Union and discrediting of communism in 1989 they saw a hope
of negotiating their own political survival.

Sanctions against the white regime in Rhodesia, now Zimbabwe, in the 1970s
led only to the creation of a highly innovative and successful economy.
Ian Smith's regime, however, saw defeat coming and decided to negotiate
while it still had some cards to play.

International sanctions have been equally useless in bringing down the
miserable and cruel military regime in Burma, or in forcing the junta to
negotiate a transition to a representative government with Aung San Suu
Kyi, the detained leader of the National League for Democracy (NLD).

For years, exile groups such as the Free Burma Coalition (FBC) have been
highly successful in persuading governments, bodies like the United
Nations, and individual companies to keep clear of Burma because of the
generals' despotic rule, merciless persecution of the opposition, taste
for torture and the use of slave labour. The coalition has been
instrumental in pressing more than 50 multinational corporations to
withdraw from Burma.

But the generals are still there. Suu Kyi is still detained in her
crumbling lakeside villa in Rangoon. There is no more real hope now of a
political compromise between the junta and the NLD than there was in 1988,
when the army crushed a pro-democracy uprising. This bitter truth has
prompted the U.S.-based FBC founder and leader, Zar Ni, into a radical
re-think of the group's sanctions policies and what is likely to be
successful in bringing Burma's 42 million people the chance of a decent
life.

Writing in the British newspaper, the Independent, last month on the 58th
anniversary of Burma's independence from British colonial rule, Ni urged
the international community to adopt policies of intense engagement with
the junta in place of the failed attempts at imposed isolation.

The well-meaning prescriptions used up to now have been "generally
simplistic and unhelpful," Ni wrote. "They over-emphasize democratization
above other important aspects of nation building, and seek to effect
regime change through pressure and sanctions which are in many ways doing
more harm than good."

Ni's re-evaluation comes at a time when Burma's strategic position at the
heart of Southeast Asia is a matter of intense interest to its neighbours
such as Thailand, Vietnam and Malaysia, as well as by more distant
regional players like India, Japan and the U.S.

Sanctions always create a market, and in the case of Burma it has been a
market that China has been delighted to fill.

Beijing government statistics show that China's official trade with Burma
doubled in five years to $1.1 billion U.S. in 2004. The junta's hard
currency reserves have blossomed from $89 million U.S. in 1988 to around
$685 million U.S. in 2004. Such figures have led some commentators to
describe Burma as little more than an "economic colony" of China. This is
an exaggeration. Thailand's imports from Burma in the first 10 months of
last year were worth $1.5 billion U.S., for example.

But China has also developed a military relationship with the junta that
gives Beijing naval and other bases facing the Indian Ocean.

Ni's arguments for intense engagement may well find resonance in Southeast
Asia and in Washington where there is no appetite to see Burma chained
down as a Chinese vassal state.

Jonathan Manthorpe is international affairs columnist for the Vancouver Sun.