BurmaNet News, November 10, 2006

[Editor]

November 10, 2006 Issue # 3085


INSIDE BURMA
AFP: Top UN envoy to witness Myanmar's 'road map to democracy'
Mizzima: Gambari's Burma visit; Will it fetch significant results?
Irrawaddy: Junta attacks on Karen continue during Gambari visit
AFP: Myanmar charges 1,247 civil servants over corruption: report
AFP: Red Cross talks with Myanmar authorities stalled: ICRC
DVB: Membership of Burma's NLD increasing despite "intimidation"
DVB: Burma junta prepares to charge student leaders under emergency act

ON THE BORDER
Thai Press Reports: Myanmar (Burma) opens temporary passport-issuing
offices near border with Thailand

BUSINESS / TRADE
Irrawaddy: Burma to lose out in Thai energy industry shake-up

REGIONAL
AFP: Post-coup Thai PM to join regional leaders in talks with Bush

OPINION / OTHER
Straits Times: Can China remain friends with tyrants? - Michael Vatikiotis
DVB: All eyes on Gambari - Dale Stewart

ANNOUNCEMENT / PRESS RELEASE
US Campaign for Burma: Rally on Saturday November 11th in New York City’s
Union Square to end attacks after 3,000 villages destroyed in Eastern
Burma, more information below

____________________________________
INSIDE BURMA

November 10, Agence France Presse
Top UN envoy to witness Myanmar's 'road map to democracy'

Top UN official Ibrahim Gambari on Friday met delegates at divisive
constitutional talks in military-run Myanmar, a day before he was due to
visit detained democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi.

The undersecretary general for political affairs is spending the second
day of his four-day visit at the National Convention, where analysts say
the regime will try and win his support for the so-called road map to
democracy.

This is Gambari's second visit to Myanmar, and the Nigerian diplomat
became the only foreigner allowed to see Nobel peace laureate Aung San Suu
Kyi in more than two years when he visited the isolated Southeast Asian
nation in May. Gambari was due to arrive at 9am (0230 GMT) Friday at the
secluded Nyaunghnapin military compound outside Yangon, where the
on-again, off-again constitution-drafting talks resumed on October 10.

"He will be meeting with groups participating in the National Convention
such as armed ethnic groups, political parties and members of parliament,"
the United Nations spokesman in Yangon told AFP.

"That is the main reason he is there, to meet all these people in one
place," he added.

Gambari is due to return to Yangon late in the afternoon, where he will
visit a mosque before attending a dinner hosted by Foreign Minister Nyan
Win, information ministry sources said.

The National Convention is supposed to be the first of seven steps on a
"road map" to democracy, but the talks have been boycotted by Aung San Suu
Kyi's opposition party and derided by Western countries as a farce which
has dragged for over a decade.

"They will try to get his endorsement for the National Convention, which
is the first step on the road map, so they want endorsement for the whole
road map," Thailand-based Myanmar analyst Win Min told AFP.

Gambari is in Myanmar as an emissary of UN Secretary General Kofi Annan,
and his visit comes at a critical time for the military-ruled nation.

The UN Security Council discussed the country in September, with the
United States pressing for a resolution on its human rights abuses and
lack of democratic reform. Gambari arrived in Yangon at around midday
Thursday and was greeted by the foreign minister before meeting the labour
minister and the planning minister, the United Nations said. He also met
Yangon-based UN staff.

"Building upon the understandings reached during his first visit, Mr.
Gambari stressed to his interlocutors the need for concrete positive
results in key areas," a UN statement released late Thursday said.

Myanmar needed to make the road map process "more transparent and
inclusive", the UN said. It listed other priorities as the release of
political prisoners, the question of humanitarian access, and the
situation in the Karen State, where an upsurge in fighting has forced
hundreds of refugees to flee to Thailand.

On Saturday, Gambari will fly to Myanmar's new administrative capital, Nay
Pyi Taw, some 350 kilometers (215 miles) north of Yangon, to hold talks
with junta leader Than Shwe, according to information ministry sources.

Following the meeting with the military leader, the UN envoy will return
to Yangon on Saturday afternoon to see Aung San Suu Kyi, the sources said.
The 61-year-old has been under house arrest for most of the past 17 years.
Apart from her live-in maid, the leader of Myanmar's opposition National
League for Democracy (NLD) is allowed no contact with the outside world,
except for once-a-month visits from her doctor Tin Myo Win.

Myanmar's police said last week the doctor would likely see her on
November 11 or 12 for a general medical checkup and an ultrasound. The NLD
won 1990 elections in a landslide victory, but the military, which has
ruled Myanmar since 1962, refused to recognize the result. Gambari will
leave Myanmar on Sunday morning.

____________________________________

November 9, Mizzima News
Gambari's Burma visit; Will it fetch significant results? - Mungpi

Amidst hopes of a breakthrough, the United Nations Undersecretary-General,
Ibrahim Gambari, today arrived in Rangoon in what is his second visit to
military-governed Burma. His previous trip was in May 2006.

The UN envoy's arrival this morning has triggered hopes of a concrete
result in the international community as well as among Burmese
politicians, activists and students.

The National League for Democracy, Burma's main opposition party, earlier
told Mizzima it hopes Gambari's second visit to Burma would be more
meaningful then his previous trip, as the envoy would report back to the
UN Security Council.

The United Nations on Tuesday confirmed that Gambari, during his four-day
visit from November 9 to 12, will meet Burma's ruling generals, the
opposition party –National League for Democracy - including Aung San Suu
Kyi and others across the political spectrum whom he had met during his
previous trip.

A Rangoon based independent veteran politician, Win Naing, however,
believes that unless there is a substantial change in the envoy's
scheduled meetings, it is likely to fetch the same result as his first
visit in May this year.

Win Naing, in his open letter to Gambari today said meeting the NLD would
not bring the desired result as the party would persist in its demand for
the release of party leader Aung San Suu Kyi and would avoid giving other
alternatives to resolve the country's problems.

"I would like to work with a freed Daw Aung Sun Su Kyi but if she is not
around I cannot not just wait for her and do nothing for the people," said
Win Naing adding that given the dire economic situation in Burma, "we must
work for the immediate and urgent needs of the people first."

In order to truly understand the complex national reconciliation issue,
Win Naing said the UN envoy should meet the NLD, ethnic groups, veteran
politicians, 88 generation students, and independent politicians,
including him.

The NLD, however, said they have not been notified of the schedule of a
meeting with Gambari.

The junta, on its part, would want Gambari to endorse the ongoing national
convention which is the first of its planned seven-step roadmap, U Win
Naing said.

A former BBC correspondent and Burma affairs expert, Larry Jagan told
Mizzima that Gambari is likely to meet a few key political persona
including Aung San Suu Kyi but he dismissed expectations of significant
changes following the visit.

"It would be unfair to believe that any one visit can actually change the
nature of the military regime and produce significant changes," said Larry
Jagan.

Larry said the junta is keen to use Gambari's visit and is likely to take
the envoy to the national convention and to the annual conference of the
junta backed Union Solidarity and Development Association that is being
held in Naypyidaw.

Win Min, a Thailand based Burmese analyst, said the junta would smartly
use the visit to find a way out of the UNSC passing a resolution on Burma.

Win Min said, "I think, the generals will offer concessions that will not
directly threaten their power, which may include things that China asked
the generals to do in order to be able to defend Burma at the UNSC
briefing or use their veto if the US introduces a resolution."

The junta might promise a tentative timeframe of its seven point roadmap,
render some cooperation with UN agencies and non-government al
organisations on humanitarian assistance, give some concession to the
International Labour Organisation and release some political prisoners,
Win Min said.

Meanwhile, reports suggest that the '88 generation student leaders – Min
Ko Naing, Ko Ko Gyi, Htay Kywe, Min Zeya and Pyone Cho – who were arrested
in late September and early October were put on trial and charged under
act 5 (j) in absentia in Bahan Township court in Rangoon.

Despite expectations that the student leaders might be freed following
Gambari's visit, it now seems they will be charged and imprisoned in the
same way as Aung San Suu Kyi whose detention was extended by another year
following Gambari's previous visit to Burma, Win Min analyzed.

____________________________________

November 10, Irrawaddy
Junta attacks on Karen continue during Gambari visit - Shah Paung

As the UN’s top diplomat is meeting Burma’s military rulers on Friday to
urge democratic reform, ethnic Karen face ongoing operations by government
soldiers that have displaced thousands since the beginning of the year.

UN spokesperson Stephane Dujarric said in New York on Thursday that the UN
Under Secretary-General Ibrahim Gambari’s meetings with the government
officials will stress “the need for concrete results in areas of concern
to the international community.” Planned talks are to include the
situation in Karen State among other issues of political reform, the
release of political prisoners and humanitarian assistance.

Border sources say that fighting in Karen State happens on a daily basis.
According to the Karen National Union, Burmese troops from battalion 35 of
Light Infantry Division 66 on November 7 destroyed property of ethnic
Karen villagers in Taungoo District, Pegu Division valued at more than 2.2
million kyat (nearly US $1,667).

Troops from the same battalion three days earlier killed two villagers—Saw
Kyor, 45, and Pa Ree Say, 19—while also destroying rice stores and farms
in the area.

The KNU said that the ongoing attacks have focused on northern Karen State
and Pegu Division, where troops attack villagers hiding in the jungles
nearly every day.

Burmese forces have increased their presence in the area. Seven battalions
of LID Division 16 have been deployed in Nyaunglebin District, with
another five battalions from LID 66 stationed in Taungoo District,
according to the KNU.

Gambari’s visit to Burma, from November 9-12, is his second in almost six
months. During his first visit in May, he secured a meeting with detained
opposition leader and Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi—the first envoy to
visit her since 2004.

A November 1 report by the relief organization Free Burma Rangers said
that 47-year-old They Shur was burned alive by Burmese troops in Play Hta
village in Taungoo District. He was too sick to flee the attacks on the
village. Sixty families from the village fled to the jungle to escape the
violence, the report said.

Ongoing offensives in the area have sent several thousand Karen to the
Thailand-Burma border seeking refuge.

Gilbert Shu, director of the Karen Office of Relief and Development, said
that from October 15 to 28, some 168 people from Nyaunglebin and Taungoo
districts arrived at the Ei Tu Hta camp, built in early 2006 on the
Burmese side of the Salween River and where about 1,700 refugees have
taken shelter.

More than 3,000 additional refugees are expected to arrive at the camp in
November because of food shortages and the threat of violence in the home
villages, said Gilbert Shu.

____________________________________

November 10, Agence France Presse
Myanmar charges 1,247 civil servants over corruption: report

Military-run Myanmar, listed this week by a global watchdog as one of the
most graft-ridden countries in the world, has charged 1,247 civil servants
over corruption, state media reported Friday.

The official New Light of Myanmar newspaper quoted Prime Minister Soe Win
as saying that the government had taken action against the civil servants
throughout 2005 and 2006 "in accordance with the law".

"The government is taking measures constantly to ensure effective and
clean administrative mechanisms to serve the interests of the nation and
the people... so action was taken against 1,247 government staff in
accordance with the law," he said.

"Service personnel on their part are to safeguard the people without
discrimination against or in favour of them in accordance with the law,"
he added.

Soe Win, who made the comments when addressing a government organisation
in the new administrative capital Nay Pyi Taw on November 4, did not
elaborate on the nature of the charges against the civil servants.

However, Myanmar recently sentenced the country's customs chief to 66
years in prison as part of an anti-corruption drive that gutted the
department.

About 500 staff from the customs department were also taken into custody
for questioning at some point during the past two months, and a legal
source said last week that half were likely to be charged with bribery and
corruption.

Soe Win said in official media in October that several businessmen had
also been prosecuted for corruption, apparently in connection with the
same case.

Global graft watchdog Transparency International on Monday listed Myanmar
as one of the most corrupt countries in the world, alongside Haiti and
Iraq, in its annual Corruption Perceptions Index.

Myanmar is one of the world's poorest countries, with an economy driven
into the ground by decades of mismanagement under military rule that began
in 1962.

The junta on Thursday released a hotline number and contact email address
and urged people to contact the authorities with any information regarding
malpractice by civil servants.

"Investigation will be made by the inspection team, legally formed by the
minister's office," the Ministry of Home Affairs said in its statement.

____________________________________

November 10, Agence France Presse
Red Cross talks with Myanmar authorities stalled: ICRC

Talks over prison visits in military-ruled Myanmar have stalled, the
International Committee of the Red Cross said Friday adding other relief
operations have been halted after warnings from officials.

Authorities told some ICRC sub-offices in the country four weeks ago that
their field operations no longer had approval from the authorities, a
spokeswoman for the Geneva-based agency, Carla Haddad, told AFP.

"The authorities informed ICRC orally that they would no longer condone
our activities in the field," Haddad said.

"This was approximately four weeks ago," she added. "Our activities in the
field have been halted, this is also one of the issues we would like to
discuss.”

The military junta stopped the agency making independent visits to prisons
to check on the condition of detainees in December 2005. Myanmar's
information minister Brigadier General Kyaw Hsann said last week the junta
was still holding talks with the ICRC on resuming such visits.

But Haddad said Friday: "The discussions have stalled."

"In the past four weeks, these have reached a stalemate, we're trying our
best to re-establish dialogue. We're trying to establish discussions with
the highest level of government," she added.

ICRC activities were now limited mainly to running orthopaedic hospitals,
while the agency sought clarification from the government in Yangon on the
obstacles.

"We're hopeful that in the coming days we'll be able to resolve this,"
Haddad said.

Myanmar's military rulers stopped allowing the ICRC into prisons when the
Red Cross rejected a request to be accompanied by government-affiliated
organisations.

Between 1999 and late 2005 the humanitarian agency made 453 visits to
prisons and labour camps across Myanmar, which has been ruled by the
military since 1962.

The United Nations estimates Myanmar has more than 1,100 political
prisoners, including Nobel peace laureate Aung San Suu Kyi who has spent
more than a decade under house arrest.

The ICRC, which has 264 staff in the country including 24 expatriates, has
met with the detained democracy leader twice since 1999.

____________________________________

November 9, Democratic Voice of Burma
Membership of Burma's NLD increasing despite "intimidation"

Despite all sorts of intimidation and interference by Burma's State Peace
and Development Council (SPDC) military regime which is trying weaken the
National League for Democracy (NLD), membership in the party has been
increasing and not the other way round, said the NLD.

Even while the newspapers are carrying news daily about NLD members
resigning from the party, the number of new members is increasing, said
Nyan Win, spokesperson for the NLD.

"We began recruiting new members about 2 years ago. We regularly get new
membership application forms even though our offices are not there (closed
down by government). The number of new recruits has increased even more
especially since they started frequently carrying news in the newspapers
about NLD members resigning. For instance, membership in Rangoon Division
is increasing quite a lot. The same is true for Magwe Division."

The NLD also said that new membership is increasing in Rangoon Division's
Dawbon Township. Last month alone, the party branch accepted 31 new
members, said Kyaw Kyaw Lin, member of the Dawbon NLD Youth Wing.

"As part of the regular NLD programme and under the youth recruitment
arrangement which was jointly launched in April 2006 by our township
organizing committee and our youth committee, we have recruited and
accepted 31 new members as of October 2006."

Ko Kyaw Kyaw Lin further explained about the recruitment of new members,
including students and women.

"Quite a number of young people within our reach showed keen interest and
they have voluntarily joined the party. Most of them are young people and
students, including female members. We approve the member applications
after NLD members in the respective wards endorsed the credentials of the
new applicants."

____________________________________

November 9, Democratic Voice of Burma
Burma junta prepares to charge student leaders under emergency act

Many observers have been speculating that when the UN Under
Secretary-General, Mr Gambari visits Burma, there may be some political
developments, or at a minimum, the five student leaders who are being
detained by the authorities may be released.

But, on the very day that Mr Gambari arrived in Rangoon, reports began
circulating that the authorities had applied for a remand to formally
charge the five student leaders, including Min Ko Naing, under Section 5J
of the 1950 Emergency Provisions Act.

Although it is still unknown where the student leaders are detained, the
remand to charge them under Section 5J was applied at the Bahan Township
Court on 6 November.

"We began hearing the news yesterday morning because people called to
inform us. We were, however, unable to confirm it," said one of the 88
Generation Students. "But, the information started coming in not just from
a source or two but from many sources and that sort of authenticated the
veracity of the news."

Min Ko Naing, Ko Ko Gyi, Htay Kywe, Min Zeya, and Pyone Cho were taken
away on 27 September with the pretext that the authorities only wanted to
have talks with them for a limited time only. Now that they have been
charged under Section 5J, the undertaking of the generals no longer holds
true.

"When they came to arrest us in 1988 and 1989, they used the same excuse
that we were being taken away for a while only," continued Mya Aye. "When
the authorities came this time also, they told the parents that they were
taking away the student leaders briefly only because the senior leaders
wanted to meet them. I personally heard those words and we have evidence
also. That is because I was present when they came for Ko Pyone Cho. The
authorities said the senior leaders wanted to have talks. They never said
anything about arrest, interrogation or prosecution. There are laws
enacted in Burma and I am of the opinion the people who enact them should
respect them too."

National League for Democracy (NLD) Lawyer Nyan Win also confirmed the
news this way:

"Sources in the legal circles confirmed the news. I heard they applied for
a remand with the Bahan Court. Many people are saying that the news is
true. We, personally, cannot ask the court about it, and even if we do, we
will not receive any reply. Circumstances confirm the news to be true. The
remand was sought to get a detention order for further investigation.
Legal proceedings will follow later. I understand they are seeking a
detention order under Section 5J. The remand permits a 2-week detention."

Nyan Win said that seeking a remand without producing the detainees in
court is illegal.

"That is not permitted under the law. But it has been the practice for
quite some time in politically connected cases. They continue to use that
practice despite our protests."

_____________________________________
BUSINESS / TRADE

November 10, Irrawaddy
Burma to lose out in Thai energy industry shake-up - William Boot

Thailand will not rely on Burma for gas supplies or electricity from
controversial river hydro dam schemes for the country’s energy needs in
the next decade, new Energy Minister Piyasvati Amranand said in Bangkok
Friday.

Under post-Thaksin revised planning for Thailand’s power generating
expansion beyond 2011, gas will be bought elsewhere, Piyasvati told a
conference on the country’s economic development.

At present more than one-third of Thailand’s gas comes from concessions in
Burmese offshore wells in the Andaman Sea.

Piyasvati said his brief is to open up the country’s power industry to
fair competition and private investment.

Thailand would aim to depend less on natural gas, which is currently the
main fuel for power generation, Piyasvati said.The plan is to reduce gas
use from almost 70 percent of power generation to about 40 percent, and
liquid natural gas would be bought overseas.

LNG eliminates costly pipelines now used to pump gas from wells in Burmese
waters of the Andaman Sea and from Thailand’s own wells in the Gulf of
Thailand.

“It is probably inevitable that we will have to rely on gas to play a
crucial role in power supply, and this will probably have to be imported,”
Piyasvati told the conference, which was attended by five ministers of the
new military coup-appointed government.

“Where it will come from will be decided in the next 12 months," he said.
"It could be Iran, or Indonesia, or Australia.”

The energy minister said he wanted to promote more fair competition and
private investment in Thailand’s power industry than ever before.

Among other things, partially privatized but majority state- owned PTT,
the country’s oil and gas conglomerate, will lose its gas pipelines
monopoly. PTT is currently bidding for the huge tranche of gas discovered
in the Shwe offshore fields of Burma’s west coast, but most analysts
expect either China or India to secure exclusive purchase.

PTT’s overseas exploration arm PTTEP is currently drilling in other
prospective Burmese oil and gas fields of the Andaman sea area.

Although Thailand needs to invest in more non-fossil renewable energy
sources, it will turn away from excessive reliance on hydro-electric
schemes in Burma. Thailand is now committed to the US$1 billion Hatgyi
hydro dam project on the Salween River in Karen State with the Chinese
Sinohydro Corp and Burmese state authorities.

Future plans also call for more investment in hydro-electric projects in
Laos. Piyasvati said the government hoped to sign a tentative agreement
next month for an extra 2,000 megawatts of electricity from Lao projects
beyond 2010.

Several other government speakers at the conference, organized by
institutions including the Stock Exchange of Thailand, said corruption and
political interference had dominated much of Thailand’s economy for the
last five years.

New Communications Technology Minister Sitthichai Pookaiyaudom said the
telecoms industry was “in a mess.”

“The last five years was the dark ages for telecommunications in
Thailand,” he said. He said his mandate was to quickly assess the
situation, publish a report to be made public and then introduce a fair,
competitive system.

The family of deposed Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra owned Thailand’s
biggest mobile phone network until earlier this year. Thaksin's government
also had friendly business links with the Burmese government.

____________________________________
REGIONAL

November 10, Agence France Presse
Post-coup Thai PM to join regional leaders in talks with Bush

Thailand's military-installed prime minister will join regional leaders in
a meeting with US president George W. Bush during an international summit
in Vietnam next week, officials said Friday.

Military-ruled Myanmar would likely be on the agenda at the meeting on the
sidelines of the upcoming Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit
in Hanoi, Thai foreign ministry spokesman Kitti Vasinonh told AFP.

Washington-based analysts had warned that planned talks between Bush and
Association of Southeast Asian Nation (ASEAN) leaders might not take place
because of disagreement over issues such as Myanmar and the recent Thai
military coup.

But Kitti confirmed that Surayud Chulanont, installed as Thai prime
minister by leaders of the September 19 putsch, would attend the meeting.

"Vietnam, as the host nation of the coming APEC meeting, has coordinated
with the US counterparts to arrange the meeting," Kitti told AFP.

"The date for the meeting has yet to be fixed but it would be during the
time Surayud attends the APEC forum on November 17 to 19," he said.

Surayud will join fellow ASEAN leaders from Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore,
the Philippines, Indonesia and Brunei in the meeting with Bush, recently
humbled in US midterm elections.

The other three ASEAN countries -- Laos, Cambodia, and Myanmar -- would be
absent from the meeting as they are not members of APEC, said Kitti.

He said ASEAN and US leaders would likely discuss topics including bird
flu, energy prices, the situation in Myanmar and the Korean peninsular, as
well as more general political, economic and security issues.

Washington is pushing for a UN resolution on Myanmar over human rights
abuses and the slow pace of democratic reform, while ASEAN countries have
advocated a less confrontational approach.

Bush, meanwhile, is likely to explain any change in US policies with
Asia-Pacific nations following recent elections that saw his Republican
party lose control of congress to the Democrats, Kitti added.

The Thai government on Thursday announced that the country's military
rulers would likely lift martial law ahead of Surayud's trip to Hanoi to
make the kingdom's allies "more comfortable".

There had been speculation that Bush would be reluctant to meet with a
military-appointed leader like Surayud.

However Bush would have struggled to avoid the former army chief -- he is
designated to sit next him at the APEC summit under a seating arrangement
based on alphabetical order of the 21 members of the forum.

_____________________________________
OPINION / OTHER

November 10, The Straits Times (Singapore)
Can China remain friends with tyrants? - Michael Vatikiotis

Much has been made of China's quiet diplomacy, which helped bring a
recalcitrant and now nuclear North Korea back to the negotiating table.
Beijing's successful leverage over Pyongyang suggests that China's strong
adherence to the principle of non-interference in the domestic affairs of
sovereign nations is loosening. If so, this will have important
ramifications for the rest of Asia, perhaps critically altering the
geopolitical dynamics.

For the past six decades, China has lived by - and expected regional
neighbours to adhere to - the much-vaunted Five Principles of Peaceful
Coexistence first propounded by the late Chinese premier Zhou Enlai in
1953 during talks between China and India over Tibet. Mutual
non-interference in one another's internal affairs was one of the five
bedrock principles.

Although the idea is pretty much the Treaty of Westphalia with Chinese
characteristics, China's diplomatic dogmatism has helped Asia fend off too
much outside scrutiny. For one thing, China has stood in the way of
effective intervention in the region's other reclusive totalitarian state,
Myanmar.

The military rulers of Myanmar can effectively hold out against
international pressure to accelerate progress towards pluralistic
democracy so long as China and, to some extent, India and Russia, prop up
the economy without asking awkward political questions.

What then has Myanmar's obstinate military junta made of the fact that in
the wake of Pyongyang's nuclear test, China effectively cut off energy
supplies and strangled the financial lifeblood of the regime? Who would
have expected China to throw solid weight behind economic sanctions
imposed by the United Nations? Myanmar has reason to be concerned because
China failed to prevent the Security Council from putting the political
situation there on its official agenda.

Of course there are those who will point to exceptional circumstances:
North Korea lies along China's borders and is a strategic priority. For
the most part, this argument runs, China isn't interested in meddling
overseas because of much greater challenges at home. But times have
changed for China. As for any big power, an active foreign policy will be
a necessity, not a luxury, for China. Therefore, it seems logical to
expect more diplomatic intervention, not less, from Beijing.

One immediate legacy of the North Korean episode will be heightened
expectations. Already, against the backdrop of the Sino-African summit in
Beijing, there have been calls for China to exert a similar amount of
diplomatic muscle in Africa.

'In recent days, we've seen that Chinese pressure has brought North Korea
back to the negotiating table in the wake of its nuclear test,' ran a
statement from Human Rights Watch in New York. 'We hope similar efforts
will be made with countries in Africa where the situation is also
catastrophic.

'Beijing is under specific pressure to back plans for a United Nations
peacekeeping force in Darfur, where China now owns 40 per cent of oil
production facilities. China has blocked several United Nations
resolutions aimed at forcing the government in Khartoum to prevent further
violence in the Darfur region. But now Chinese officials are saying they
have been working behind the scenes to improve the situation. And as if to
set some sort of precedent, China is planning on sending a sizeable force
to reinforce the UN peacekeeping mission in Lebanon.

All the same, the scene in Beijing of Chinese President Hu Jintao and
Zimbabwe's President Robert Mugabe toasting an 'unshakeable' friendship
hardly inspires confidence in China's desire to exert pressure on a
country where most Western countries have imposed sanctions because of
human rights abuses. Nor does the recent visit by Myanmar's Prime Minister
Soe Win to China appear to have resulted in any move to cut off trade and
withhold aid unless Nobel Peace Prize winner Aung San Suu Kyi is released
from house arrest.

So perhaps it is premature to imagine that China's dealings with errant
North Korea portend a tectonic shift away from non-interference to
constructive intervention. Tyrants in Asia and Africa can probably rest
assured that if they have trouble in the West, or at the United Nations,
there is always China to turn to for friendship - especially if there is
oil or natural gas in the mix.

The real question is how much longer China can juggle its traditional
default position governing international relations with its new role as a
global power. One key test lies ahead: what stance China takes on Iran's
nuclear programme, which is also before the UN Security Council. The world
will be watching and expecting China to behave like a responsible
stakeholder.

The writer is based in Singapore as regional representative of the Centre
for Humanitarian Dialogue.

____________________________________

November 9, Democratic Voice of Burma
All eyes on Gambari - Dale Stewart

It is hard to know what to expect from United Nations under-secretary
general Ibrahim Gambari’s visit to Burma starting today.

His first trip to Rangoon in May produced few tangible results, aside from
the diplomatic benefits that come with re-establishing contact. Gambari
left the country confident he had prompted Aung San Suu Kyi’s release. He
really couldn’t have been more mistaken.

Obviously his next visit is not going to result in an immediate democratic
transition or an end to human rights abuses in Burma. But there are small
victories to be won here that, when placed within a larger political
picture, could contribute to change.

Two things have changed since Gambari last met the military. Burma is now
on the formal UN Security Council agenda and is again facing discussion at
the International Labour Organisation’s General Assembly.

These are both significant developments as they will, if only slightly,
increase the international community’s leverage in negotiations with the
junta. While we might not be able to expect much, we should be able to
expect better results this time round.

Gambari is expected to meet Daw Suu for the second time and if the meeting
does come off, it should be seen as a positive step. For too long Daw Suu
has been completely excluded from politics.

After having been denied contact with her party leaders and the Burmese
people, the democracy icon desperately needs to come back into the active
political picture. We may not see her released anytime soon but getting
her re-engaged would be encouraging.

Gambari is expected to have the military’s restrictions on the operations
of the UN and international NGOs high on his agenda. If he can get the
military to slightly relax their restrictions on groups like the
International Committee of the Red Cross or organisations working on
HIV/AIDS, malaria and TB the Burmese people will benefit.

They’re unlikely to allow foreign groups to start tromping through
sensitive areas in Karen or Arakan territory but even a small easing of
the travel restrictions would make a difference.

Gambari’s plan to observe the shoddy National Convention is unfortunate in
that the regime will claim his presence gives the constitution-drafting
process legitimacy. But then again, it would almost be an awkward
diplomatic gaffe to not give time to a political convention that is being
attended by hundreds of delegates. Avoiding the National Convention would
also put negotiations between the UN and the military off on the wrong
foot.

There are plenty of potential positives and negatives to Gambari’s visit
but surely there is one thing that is certain. Doing something is more
often than not better than doing nothing.

The visit may not result in the toppling of the military government but
it’s gotta be worth a try.

____________________________________
ANNOUNCEMENT / PRESS RELEASE

November 10, US Campaign for Burma
For Immediate Release: November 10th, 2006, Contact: Jeremy Woodrum (202)
246-7924

RALLY IN NEW YORK TO END ATTACKS AFTER 3,000 VILLAGES DESTROYED IN EASTERN
BURMA

Speakers, Music, Images Planned for Saturday, November 11th

(New York City) Activists, musicians, and refugees from the Southeast
Asian country of Burma will gather in New York City's Union Square this
Saturday, November 11th as part of a new, growing campaign to draw
attention to the human rights disaster in eastern Burma, where over 3,000
villages have been burned or relocated by the ruling military regime.

“The world knows what is happening in Darfur and they know what took place
in Rwanda,” said Cristina Moon of the US Campaign for Burma.  “But the
destruction of 3,000 villages in eastern Burma is perhaps the world’s
least-known major disaster.”

Over the past 10 years, Burma's military regime has carried out a brutal
ethnic cleansing campaign against Karen, Kachin, Karenni, Shan, and Mon
ethnic minorities that has forced over 1 million refugees to flee their
homes. An additional 1/2 million civilians live trapped inside eastern
Burma as internal refugees, outside the reach of international
humanitarian aid. Over 150,000 refugees have found relative safety in
refugee camps in neighboring Thailand.

Activists aim to collect signatures on 3,000 postcards – one for each
destroyed village -- that will be sent to UN Secretary General Kofi Annan.
The postcards read: "We strongly urge you to personally intervene and
request URGENT ACTION from the UN Security Council to stop these attacks
and demand the release of Nobel Peace Prize recipient Aung San Suu Kyi,
just as you similarly called for strong, immediate action in Lebanon,
Sudan, and elsewhere when civilians were being killed and homes destroyed
on a massive scale."

Suu Kyi, locked up by the ruling military junta, is the world’s only
imprisoned Nobel Peace Prize recipient.

The event will take place from 2 PM until 6:30 PM on Saturday, November
11, in the South Plaza of Union Square. Representatives from Burmese human
rights organizations working on the Thailand-Burma border, the human
rights organization WITNESS, local Burmese communities, and the US
Campaign for Burma will all speak. The speakers will be followed by
musical performances, including by Didi Gutman of the band Brazilian Girls
and Rebecca Fanya.

Images of recent attacks and displacements in Eastern Burma will be
projected on a large screen. Participants and spectators to Saturday's
event will be encouraged to take action for the people of eastern Burma,
by signing postcards and making 3,000 origami houses symbolic of eastern
Burma's 3,000 destroyed villages.  The origami houses will be delivered to
the Burmese embassy in Washington DC.

“The world needs to wake up to the severity of the crisis in eastern
Burma,” said Moon.  “The longer people wait to act, the more people will
die.”

More information on the situation in eastern Burma, including a brand-new,
downloadable slide show on eastern Burma, can be found at
www.uscampaignforburma.org