BurmaNet News, January 6-8, 2007

[Editor]

January 6-8, 2007 Issue # 3116


INSIDE BURMA
Inter Press Service: Defiant public blitz on junta with letters

ON THE BORDER
Irrawaddy: Thai traders hope KNU talks will succeed

ASEAN
AFP: The heat's off Myanmar at upcoming ASEAN summit
AFP: ASEAN summit revives questions of relevance

REGIONAL
Japan Economic Newswire: Myanmar leader seen leaving Singapore hospital
Asia Pulse: Cambodia, Laos, Burma prone to fail, says World Bank
Xinhua: Most Myanmar migratory workers destined to Malaysia

INTERNATIONAL
Inter Press Service: More uncertainty lies ahead
Irrawaddy: Former Korean President, Nobel Laureate refused Burmese visa

OPINION / OTHER
Japan Times: Japan's peculiar silence on rights abuses - Sophie Richardson

____________________________________
INSIDE BURMA

January 8, Inter Press Service
Defiant public blitz on junta with letters - Marwaan Macan-Markar

Bangkok:  A handwritten letter to a military dictator may sound like an
ineffective and risky way of conveying defiance especially in this age of
Internet, where e-mails, blogs and websites have combined to threaten
political authority in a number of countries.

But in Burma, where a strict censorship regime is in force, and where
access to information technology is limited, the good, old-fashioned
letter is taken recourse to by the country's long-suffering people to
express growing dissatisfaction with Rangoon's junta.

A letter-writing campaign, launched in the first week of the New Year, saw
tens of thousands of people in and around Rangoon seeking the special
envelopes and sheets of paper meant for this drive, say the organisers, a
highly respected group of former university students, known as the
'88-Generation Students'.

''This is an effort to break the silence. To get people to openly write
about their grievances to the military government,'' adds Naing Aung,
secretary-general of the Forum for Democracy in Burma, a group of Burmese
political exiles who work closely with the 88-Generation. ''It is not
enough to just complain. This is to get people to show their courage by
standing up and openly identifying themselves as critics.''

The month-long letter-writing drive, known as the 'Open Heart' campaign,
is the latest effort by the 88-Generation to ''raise the people's
voices,'' Naing Aung explained in an interview. ''It is a peaceful way of
expressing the public's views, because protests are banned, the media is
censored, and there are no elections.''

Yet this effort, where the people are encouraged to directly address
Burma's strongman, Than Shwe, with the problems they face, comes with a
high personal risk, including a jail term, if it provokes the ire of the
junta. The State Peace and Development Council (SPDC), as the junta is
officially known, currently holds over 1,100 people in jails for
expressing their thoughts on a range of subjects. These political
prisoners include opposition parliamentarians, Buddhist monks,
journalists, writers, students and political activists.

The 88-Generation, who derive their name from being students who led a
pro-democracy protest in 1988, which was brutally crushed by the military
regime, mounted this effort on the success of three other campaigns
conducted last year. The first was a signature campaign in October,
calling for the public to endorse a plea for the SPDC to release all
political prisoners, including detained opposition leader Aung San Suu
Kyi. An estimated 60,000 people signed that petition.

Such a rare sign of public dissent in a climate of increasing oppression
was followed by an equally impressive show of public support when the
88-Generation resorted to two more creative ways to register discontent.
One was the 'White Expression' campaign, where members of the public were
asked to wear white clothes as a mark of honesty and purity. The other: a
multiple religious prayer meeting, where people were encouraged to hold
silent prayers, including candle light vigils, in temples, churches and
mosques.

Burmese political activists are welcoming this shift in the public mood as
a further indicator of the deepening frustration across the South-east
Asian nation that is run by a regime that is seen as incompetent, corrupt
and oppressive.

Last year saw the price of rice, a staple dish in the Burmese diet, rise
by 30 percent. Yet at the same time Than Shwe's daughter was married in a
lavish event where champagne flowed, the bride was decked in diamonds and
pearls and the newly wed reportedly receiving gifts worth millions of
dollars.

''The people want to cooperate in this campaign because of the growing
suffering. Some people don't care what will happen to them because they
are just angry,'' Zaw Min, spokesman for the Democratic Party for a New
Society, an opposition party banned by the SPDC, told IPS. ''People are
increasingly identifying themselves as they express their opinion.''

It is an emerging political undercurrent that has also struck journalists
working for the Democratic Voice of Burma (DVB), a radio and television
station that has its headquarters in Oslo and is run by Burmese political
exiles. ''More and more people inside Burma are voicing their anger
through our programmes,'' Than Win Htut, a DVB senior reporter told IPS.
''Some have even walked for half a day to get to a telephone from their
village to criticise the SPDC's inefficiency or abuse of power.''

Such momentum has been taking shape over the past two to three years, he
adds. ''The people are feeling more confident to complain about the SPDC
unlike earlier. There is clearly a change in attitudes.''

Among the factors that have triggered this rising tide of discontent is
the arrest of the country's former intelligence chief and Prime Minister
Gen. Khin Nyunt and his allies within the regime, say Burma analysts. Khin
Nyunt, who received a 44-year suspended sentence in July 2005, had close
contacts with the country's business community and was viewed by some
quarters inside Burma and by South-east Asian governments as a moderate.

''The economy has shrunk noticeably since the purge of Khin Nyunt,''
Debbie Stothard of the Alternate ASEAN (Association of South-east Asian
Nations) Network on Burma, a regional human rights lobby, told IPS. ''The
business people who had benefited lost out. And the sense of
dissatisfaction grew wider, with many becoming fed up with Than Shwe, who
has diverted money to his own small clique.''

''The sense of outrage and anger is growing,'' she added. ''There is a
feeling that change is very possible and that is why more and more people
are taking risks to speak out,'' she said.

____________________________________
ON THE BORDER

January 8, Irrawaddy
Thai traders hope KNU talks will succeed - Sai Silp

Thai traders look forward to increased border trade in Karen State in
Burma and Tak Province in Thailand, if negotiations between the Karen
National Union and Burmese officials are successful.

Ampol Chartchaiyaruek of the Tak Province Chamber of Commerce said the
situation in Karen State, which lies opposite of Tak province, following
the recent death of General Bo Mya may offer a renewed chance for
successful negotiations.

“If both groups could reach an agreement on the problems of illegal
immigrants then it would help the refugee problem," he said. Any political
breakthrough could also lead the Burmese government to place fewer
restrictions on products from Thailand, he said.

Ampol cited a similar situation in Muse, opposite the border with China.
He said the example in Muse, where Burmese and Chinese officials jointly
worked to solve disputes with the Wa ethnic group, could offer a model on
which to proceed. Trade in Muse has been transformed and returned to
normal.

However, an agreement may not be possible, because Burmese officials do
not want to give additional power to the KNU, the most hardcore ethnic
resistance group which now administers affairs within its territory.

Last year, Burmese officials increased import restrictions because, they
said, there was a need to try to balance the import and export trade. In
addition, high profile corruption cases caused a reshuffle among Burmese
custom officials.

Suchart Triratwattana, a trader in Mae Sot, said a breakthrough may be
possible because of new KNU leaders who want to make a deal with the
military government.

“Previously, the Burmese government worried that the Thai government and
some local traders wanted to work with the KNU," Suchart said. "But if
they could end their disagreement, trading and coordination on many
projects along the border with Karen State would be smoother.”

Recently, talks with Burmese officials were held by the commander of the
KNU’s 7th Brigade, Brig-Gen Htain Maung, according to Col Ner Dah Mya, the
tactical commander of the KNU’s general headquarters battalions. However,
the talks were not approved by the KNU’s Central Committee and other KNU
groups, Col Ner said on Friday.

According to the Mae Sot Custom Office, in 2006, the value of products
imported from Burma to Thailand was 1,255 million baht (about US $35
million), an increase of 754 million baht (about US $21 million) over
2005.

In 2006, products exported from Thailand to Burma were valued at 11,683
million baht (US $325 million), down from 12,062 million baht (US $335
million) in 2005.

In 2004-05, Thailand was Burma's largest trading partner with about US
$1.9 billion in trade. Border trade accounted for about 70 percent that
total.

____________________________________
ASEAN

January 8, Agence France Presse
The heat's off Myanmar at upcoming ASEAN summit

Cebu: Myanmar, ASEAN's (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) most
troublesome member, will likely escape strong pressure to implement
democratic reform when the Southeast Asian bloc holds its 12th annual
summit in Cebu this week, analysts said.

The nation has long been an embarrassment to the 10-nation bloc due to its
dismal human rights record, as Malaysian Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad
Badawi acknowledged less than six months ago.

"The situation in Myanmar is impacting upon the image and credibility of
ASEAN," he told a meeting of its foreign ministers.

The ministers last July issued a statement, expressing concern at the slow
pace of reconciliation in the country and calling for the early release of
political detainees.

But even that statement was watered down from a draft, which specifically
urged the release of opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, the Nobel peace
laureate who has spent more than 10 of the last 17 years under house
arrest.

Moreover, the ministers indicated they were stepping back from the problem
and handing it over to the United Nations.

At the upcoming Cebu summit, the agenda has shifted and Mely Caballero
Anthony of the Institute of Defense and Strategic Studies in Singapore
said: "I don't think Myanmar will be raised directly as a specific issue."

A Philippine foreign ministry source said Myanmar was expected to brief
the summit on progress made toward implementing its "road map" to
democracy.

"Myanmar is always going to be a concern but there have been positive
movements lately," the source said, apparently referring to the recent
release of some political prisoners.

Brad Adams, Asia director of Human Rights Watch, termed ASEAN's position
on its fellow member as "pathetic and gutless."

But Anthony and other analysts believe there is little more the disparate
grouping can do at this stage.

"It's like flogging a dead horse -- how much can ASEAN do (to persuade
Myanmar to democratize)?" she told AFP.

"There are other equally critical issues which they need to consider such
as advancing the programme on economic integration, which is more
important in this period."

One possible way forward is a proposed ASEAN charter. A draft -- which
would mark a radical departure from ASEAN's traditional non-intervention
policy -- has been drawn up by an "eminent persons group" and is expected
to be discussed in Cebu.

The draft says the charter should "pay particular reference to the
enhancement of peace, security, stability, democracy, good governance and
promote human rights."

Former Philippine president Fidel Ramos, who helped draft the document,
said last month the wording could allow the suspension of a member state
"in exceptional circumstances".

Anthony said the charter "will have to reflect the values and norms that
ASEAN stands for.
It's clear there is now a push towards more democratisation in the region.

"If that is incorporated in a charter which is supposed to be legally
binding, it could be a basis to push for compliance among members."

But she warned: "Until they have that, it will be difficult to put
pressure on Myanmar. As long as you don't have a charter, on what basis do
you tell your members to democratise? ASEAN is a mixture of democratic and
non-democratic governments -- you have to be realistic when assessing the
pressure ASEAN can bring to bear."

The grouping, founded in 1967 as a bulwark against communism, now includes
two communist states along with a sultanate, democracies and
military-ruled Myanmar.

Adams noted that even Cambodia's authoritarian leader Hun Sen had called
on Myanmar -- which he referred to by its former name Burma -- to move
toward democracy.

"This shows how embarrassing Burma is (to ASEAN). And yet they don't want
to do any of the heavy lifting themselves. They are very happy to have it
on the Security Council agenda and off theirs," Adams said.

Adams told AFP that ASEAN, if it had a united position, could exercise
direct influence on Myanmar's generals as well as indirect influence,
"which would make it hard for the Chinese and Indians to keep ignoring the
problem."

Both countries have major business interests in Myanmar, as does ASEAN
member Thailand and some others in the grouping.

"ASEAN's position on Burma is pathetic and gutless and yet we had some
strong statements from the ASEAN secretary-general and some key ASEAN
governments last year," Adams said.

"It's really important for them not to think they can wash their hands of
it. The problem will not go away."

____________________________________

January 7, Agence France Presse
ASEAN summit revives questions of relevance - Ian Timberlake

Singapore: Key Southeast Asian leaders meet this week facing criticism
that their grouping, born 40 years ago of a poverty-stricken region in
turmoil, is barely relevant in the modern era.

Heads of state and government of the Association of Southeast Asian
Nations will gather on the Philippine resort island of Cebu for their
delayed annual summit from Thursday.

It was postponed last month when Philippine President Gloria Arroyo cited
worries over a looming typhoon, although that came just a day after
Australia, Britain, the United States and other nations issued warnings
about a possible extremist attack.

The typhoon finally spared Cebu but scuppered the ASEAN summit -- a
fitting symbol for the 10-nation grouping which critics say makes a lot of
noise but has accomplished little.

"Up to now, it has been a talking shop," said Sinapan Samydorai of Think
Centre, a Singapore non-governmental organization.

"A talking shop's not a bad thing if they are talking about things of
substance," chimed in Damien Kingsbury, an associate professor at
Australia's Deakin University.

"But they don't talk about things in a constructive way or a way that is
likely to lead to some sort of further development."

ASEAN began with five founding members -- Indonesia, Malaysia, the
Philippines, Singapore and Thailand -- in August 1967, when the Vietnam
war was escalating and nations in the region feared the spread of
communism.

During its first 20 years, ASEAN tended to have a "rather strong
ideological focus", Kingsbury said, but by 1999 the bloc had doubled in
size and included Vietnam as well as Laos, both of which remain officially
communist.

"So on the political and ideological front, it seems to be no longer
relevant," Kingsbury said.

In Cebu, where leaders will launch their formal talks on Friday, the bloc
aims to sign a deal that would accelerate formation of a regional single
market to fight off competition from China.

ASEAN wants the target date advanced to 2015 from 2020, but analysts have
noted that the region faces challenges in making a European-style single
market work.

"It's still a dream," ASEAN secretary general Ong Keng Yong admitted.

With ASEAN no longer relevant in terms of ideology, its stuttering
progress toward economic unification, and its lack of formal military
cooperation, Kingsbury said: "You're really left wondering -- what else is
there?"

Critics also say ASEAN's cherished principle of non-interference in each
other's internal affairs hinders its effectiveness.

ASEAN's policy of "constructive engagement" with its military-ruled member
Myanmar -- despite the junta's dismal human rights record -- has led to
friction with the United States and the European Union, key trading
partners.

"In our own maybe fumbling way... we have at least the ability to bring
all the 10 countries together every once in a while," Ong said in ASEAN's
defence. "We speak frankly and express our fears about certain things."

Kusnanto Anggoro, of the University of Indonesia's Department of
International Studies, said ASEAN is relevant for Indonesia -- by far the
bloc's largest member -- but he is "somewhat disappointed" at the pace of
institution building within the association.

That could change if ASEAN adopts the draft of a proposed legally binding
charter, which would be a radical departure from ASEAN's non-intervention
principle.

The draft was to be presented at the Cebu summit, with a final version
considered next December.

"To be effective they need this charter," Samydorai said.

Ong said the charter will be a signal that "Hey, these guys are quite
serious", and could mean an end to questions about ASEAN's relevance.

"It will help us to come out over the next three to five years with more
practical policies, with more practical action," he said.

But Kingsbury doubted a charter would spark ASEAN into greater activity.

"I suspect that it will have that very vague sort of wish-washy approach,"
he said.

____________________________________
REGIONAL

January 7, Japan Economic Newswire
Myanmar leader seen leaving Singapore hospital

Singapore: Myanmar junta leader Sr. Gen. Tan Shwe left Singapore General
Hospital on Sunday after seeking medical treatment here.

He was seen leaving the hospital with his wife and about two dozen Myanmar
officials and about the same number of Myanmar and Singapore security
personnel.

He wore a dark business suit and walked without much assistance to a white
limousine. A female doctor with the hospital accompanied him to the car.

A hospital employee confirmed earlier that he had been admitted to the
hospital for treatment but declined to comment further. Singapore's
Foreign Ministry also declined to comment.

Earlier news reports said he had flown into Singapore on Dec. 31 and was
admitted into the hospital for treatment.

It is not clear what ailment he is suffering from.

____________________________________

January 8, Asia Pulse
Cambodia, Laos, Burma prone to fail, says World Bank

Singapore: The poor Indo-Chinese states of Cambodia, Laos and Burma rank
alongside Africa's poorest countries as those considered "fragile states"
prone to fail. The Independent Evaluation Group (IEG), an independent unit
within the World Bank, says in a new report that these three countries are
among 26 now listed as "fragile". They are in danger of collapse because
of worsening poverty and political instability.

The Group's Director-General, Vinod Thomas, said a fragile nation may take
a toll on its neighbour, as the economic cost can be one to 1.5 per cent
of the neighbour's annual gross domestic product. Speaking in Singapore to
launch the report, Thomas said neglecting the fragile states risks
worsening their problems, and that this, in turn, could lead to regional
global instability.

Failure to understand the political reality in those countries had been
the basic reason why financial aid had not been well-directed to
much-needed infrastructure and other projects, he added. The Indo-Chinese
States have a high proportion of their population subsisting on less than
US$1 a day. Their growth has been weak in recent years, lagging a long way
behind their other ASEAN neighbours. The report spoke of systematic
problems faced by these States, and looked at causes contributing to
misuse of international aid there. It singled out lack of understanding of
the political system and lack of institutional support as key causes of
the malaise. Corruption is another major issue.

The report says: "While the (World) Bank's political understanding of
Cambodia has improved recently, it has been a voyage of slow and gradual
discovery." It cited the example of a forestry project in Cambodia which
foundered, at least in part, because of insufficient attention by the Bank
to the problem of corruption.

However, in its Asia Development Report, the Manila-based Asian
Development Bank was more upbeat about the three nations. For Cambodia,
the ADB forecasts growth of around six per cent in the short and medium
term. It expects growth to be 6.3 per cent in 2006-07, bolstered by the
agriculture sector, due to an expected rebound from last year's drought.
Rising rural production will flow through into higher agricultural
exports.

Agriculture, which employs 72 per cent of the labor force, offers the best
potential to accelerate growth and to address poverty more directly, the
ADB said, adding that safeguard measures against China clothing exports,
imposed by the EU and the US, have helped Cambodian manufacturers maintain
their exports. The US is Cambodia's largest market, but clothing exports
are under challenge from lower-cost countries, which have crimped rapid
expansion in recent years. If safeguards against China clothing imports
are lowered in world markets after 2008, Cambodian clothing makers will
face heightened competition.

The ADB says tourism to Cambodia is also likely to keep expanding
robustly. And, although still heavily indebted, the Manilabased bank says
Cambodia's debts seem sustainable after it reached a rescheduling
agreement with the Russian Federation and the US this year. Nearly
two-thirds of Cambodia's external debt, estimated at US$3.2 billion or 59
per cent of GDP in 2005, is owed to the Russian Federation and the US. But
if Cambodia is to achieve its growth target of six per cent a year over
2006-2010, and a reduction in the poverty rate to 25 per cent by the end
of this decade, several constraints to growth needed to be resolved.

The ADB says Cambodia needs to move away from its current dependence on
the clothing and tourism industries. It urges development of agriculture,
and of the private sector which would broaden economic expansion and see
progress in legal and judicial reforms. Oil and gas deposits were
discovered offshore in 2005.

If these turn out to be commercial, they could generate much higher
revenues. On Laos, the ADB said the economy grew about 7.2 per cent in
2005 on the back of high investment in mining and hydro-power projects. It
believes Laos is likely to continue to grow solidly over the next two
years. Construction of the Nam Theun 2 hydro-power project and mining
projects will enhance opportunities for intra-regional trade, and forge
closer integration with its neighbours.

The ADB says the Lao economy is forecast to grow 6-7 per cent in
2006-2010, supported by the construction of, then exports from, Nam Theun
2 (due for completion in 2009), new minerals production, and the
increasing commercialisation of agriculture. It warns that Laos' main
challenge is likely to be fiscal and debt management, which is forecast to
stay high at 80-90 per cent of GDP. It also urges continuing fiscal
reforms to ensure that the economy can withstand an external shock.

The ADB says an assessment of economic development in Burma is handicapped
by incomplete information and lack of reliable information, but that
growth prospects are likely to remain modest without significant
macroeconomic reform. Government projections of growth of 12.2 per cent
are unrealistic, the ADB says, while noting that trade links with robust
neighbouring economies provide a basis for expansion of export industries.

____________________________________

January 8, Xinhua General News Service
Most Myanmar migratory workers destined to Malaysia

Yangon: The majority of Myanmar migratory workers were destined to
Malaysia with about 300 heading for the Southeast Asian member nation per
day for a recent period, said Tuesday's weekly the Flower News
pre-published on Monday.

Quoting some agents undertaking overseas employment services, the report
said these Myanmar migratory workers are working in factories, restaurants
and construction projects in Malaysia enjoying a basic pay set by the
Malaysian government.

According to the agents, along with Malaysia, Qatar also stands a
destination for the agents to send Myanmar migratory workers nowadays.

Overseas employment statistics show that Myanmar migratory  workers mostly
sought overseas jobs in Singapore during the period between 1996 and 2001
and the number working in the country  reduced starting 2001 with Malaysia
becoming the market for  overseas employment.

According to Malaysian official sources, which the report quoted, Myanmar
migratory workers accounted for the majority out of 1.84 million overseas
workers working in Malaysia.

In 2005, Myanmar allowed for the first time overseas job seekers to work
in Qatar in the Middle East, a region once the country considered too
dangerous and too susceptible to unrest for Myanmar workers.

More than 500 Myanmar workers were expected to initially arrive in Qatar
annually since then where demand for labor is high, overseas employment
agencies said.

The government's opening up of the overseas job opportunity to work in
Qatar came after the launching in January this year of the direct flight
to Yangon by the Qatar Airways, the region's airline.

In the past few decades, Myanmar has been encouraging its people to work
overseas as part of its bid to ease domestic employment problem, and
thousands of Myanmar job seekers worked in Asian countries with the
majority in Malaysia, followed by in South Korea, Singapore and Japan.

Meanwhile, Myanmar seafarers working in overseas shipping lines have
increased in recent years. According to official statistics, of the 60,000
registered seafarers in Myanmar, over 12,000 work in overseas shipping
lines, up from only 9,000 in 1996.

Meanwhile, under a recent agreement out of coordination between the
Myanmar Foreign Ministry and the Thai Labor Ministry recently, Thailand
offered to grant 10,000 Myanmar workers to work in industries, factories
and restaurants in Thailand. In this regard, the Myanmar authorities have
opened temporary passport issuing  offices in three border towns of
Myawaddy, Kawthoung and Tachilek  linking Thailand to facilitate Myanmar
workers to work in that  country crossing border.

According to Thai statistics, there are 500,000 to 600,000 Myanmar migrant
workers in Thailand accounting for 80 percent of the total.

____________________________________
INTERNATIONAL

November 8, Inter Press Service
More uncertainty lies ahead - John Feffer

Washington: Burma is in the middle of a national convention that its
military leaders claim is the first step in a sevenfold path toward
democracy. But what mix of toughness and engagement the international
community should use on the country remains an open question, one that has
drawn some comparison with North Korea.

Observers remain divided over the prospects for political change in the
South-east Asian country, the degree of threat that Burma poses to its
neighbours, and the most effective measures that the international
community can adopt to encourage greater freedom within the country.

The example of North Korea hung over a recent discussion, organised by the
Sasakawa Peace Foundation on international policy toward Burma and the
utility of current sanctions against the Burmese junta and the elements of
a package deal that could the country out of its relative isolation.

"As someone said of North Korea, it doesn't respond to pressure, but also
doesn't respond without pressure. The same can be said of Burma," pointed
out Michael Green, senior advisor at the Centre for Strategic and
International Studies at the discussion.

As with North Korea, the assembled experts spoke of the frustrations of
inducing change in Burma and the difficulty of acquiring information about
the state of the government and the conditions on the ground.

Unlike North Korea, however, Burma's military government (which refers to
the country as Myanmar) faces a significant opposition movement. Likewise,
the military junta, which has failed to recognise the 1990 elections won
by the opposition National League for Democracy (NLD), appears to be on
the threshold of reintroducing some measure of democracy.

Although opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi remains under house arrest and
the NLD has boycotted the national convention, the 1,000- plus delegates
at the convention plan to complete a new constitution by year's end as
part of the government's "seven-stage path to democracy."

The government promises to put the new constitution to a vote in a
national referendum followed by multiparty elections that reserve a
certain portion of seats in the new parliament for the government party.

The NLD and ethnic minorities in the country favour a federal constitution
that permits greater decentralisation of power. "All the minorities and
the NLD have talked about a federal system," said David Steinberg,
director of Asian Studies at Georgetown University. "To an American,
federalism makes a lot of sense. But frankly, I don't see the military
agreeing to that. The convention was tightly scripted and the military
will remain in control."

"Will the NLD compete in these (multi-party) elections -- even if some of
the constitutional framework conditions were decided in their absence and
probably with the idea to limit their voting appeal? But the outcome of
those elections may be that Myanmar gets a constitutional government,"
argued Peter Christian Hauswedell, former director general for Asia and
the Pacific region for the German foreign ministry.

"Even if that government will be heavily controlled and influenced by the
military, its formation may be an improvement over the present situation,"
he explained. So the NLD will have to think about the consequences of a
continued total rejection of the government's plans and the
non-participation in that election."

The proposed political changes are not the only signs of ferment in the
country.

The Burmese government has been busy moving the capital from Rangoon to
Naypyidaw, a new city in the interior that is off-limits to foreigners and
journalists.

Meanwhile, video footage of the wedding between Burmese leader Gen. Than
Shwe's daughter and a major in the military, recently leaked to the press,
depicted an extravagant event marked by luxurious gifts. The leak of this
video and the moving of the capital "on the basis of a soothsayer,"
speculated Mike Green, suggested "evidence of serious doubt of Gen. Than
Shwe" and weakness in the "legitimacy of the leadership".

Meanwhile, critics of the regime describe a dismal human rights situation.
Human Rights Watch has cited the regime for the detention of 1,300
political prisoners, the killing of protesters, and the use of 70,000
child soldiers, which is the largest concentration of under-18 conscripts
in the world.

According to Jeremy Woodrum of the U.S. Campaign for Burma, "over a
million refugees, most of them from eastern Burma along the border with
Thailand and China, are fleeing because the regime has burned down 3,000
villages over the last 10 years" as part of an effort to target civilian
populations in areas that provide a base for ethnic armies.

This flow of refugees, as well as drug trafficking and the spread of
infectious diseases, has made it very difficult for Asia to ignore Burma.
These problems extend beyond the region as well. "Burma presents a serious
security threat to the region and requires attention from the United
States and the U.N. Security Council," argued Green, citing how the
Security Council is moving forward to address Burma's rights record.

Hauswedell disagrees. "The Security Council debate on Myanmar was an
attempt to raise international attention for developments in Myanmar and
bring pressure on its government. But the pretext of that discussion, that
Myanmar was becoming a threat to its neighbours, is a bit farfetched. If
you would ask Myanmar's neighbours India, Bangladesh, Laos, Thailand, and
China whether they see Myanmar as a threat, they would not affirm this.
Rather, India, China, and Thailand compete for the country's raw materials
and resources and refrain from criticising Myanmar."

Under its recently deposed prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, Thailand
indeed did not press for change inside Burma. Thaksin stands accused of
profiting from his own telecommunications business investments inside
Burma.

The military coup that ousted Thaksin has raised hopes among some that
Thailand will change its policy. "The new Thai leader is known for his
toughness against the Burmese oppression of minorities living along the
border and his criticism of Burma pushing drugs into Thailand," explained
Pavin Chachavalpongpun, the author of 'A Plastic Nation: The Curse of
Thainess in Thai-Burmese Relations'.

"The United States has already suspended military aid given to Thailand
and is using the military suspension to urge a return to democratic rule
and new elections and to push Thailand to toughen up its position toward
Burma," he added.

Whether the use of the stick has in fact influenced the behaviour of the
Burmese junta since the eighties is open to question.

"I don't think the leaders of the Myanmar military regime are necessarily
receptive or sensitive to outside voices," argued Shigeru Tsumori, Japan's
ambassador to Myanmar from 2000 to 2002.

"We have seen 16 years of sanctions and unfortunately they have not
achieved their aim of restoring and securing democracy in Myanmar,"
Hauswedell maintained. "The sanctions are not universal and are not
supported by Myanmar's Asian neighbours. They were meant to hurt the
military government but on balance, they have rather contributed to the
economic misery of the common people in the country."

"It is very cynical of us to tolerate this as unavoidable but still
legitimate the 'collateral damage' of our sanctions. Rather than isolating
Myanmar, the Western sanctions have isolated the West from Myanmar and
deprived it of influence over the country's development," he pointed out.

But Jeremy Woodrum believes that the sanctions, which the Burmese
opposition has continued to endorse, have been effective. And, absent the
sanctions that the United States imposed in the late 1990s, Woodrum
argues, "the regime would have been much wealthier and much more of
Burmese natural resources would have been sold off".

Hauswedell advises a different approach to the country. "In our dealings
with Myanmar we should be more imaginative and use our soft power," he
said. "We should not discourage tourism because every tourist is an agent
of change and a source of income not only for the government, but for many
individuals involved in tourism. It was a mistake to include the children
of the Myanmar elite on our visa ban list because this prevents them from
studying at Western universities."

Given these differences in emphasis between relative engagement and
relative isolation, the question remains whether all countries need to
approach Burma with the same policy.

Tsumori believes that "all countries don't have to put the same pressure
on Myanmar to the same extent. It depends on the individual country.
Japan, with its particular history, should use different pressure from the
United States. Coordination is, however, indispensable."

Such coordination, Green believes, could lead to a grand bargain. In
exchange for improving its human rights record and moving toward
democracy, Burma would receive humanitarian assistance, official
recognition of the country's name as Myanmar, and the gradual lifting of
sanctions.

____________________________________

January 5, Irrawaddy
Former Korean President, Nobel Laureate refused Burmese visa

The Burmese Embassy in Seoul rejected the visa application of former South
Korean president and Nobel Peace Prize winner Kim Dae-jung on Friday,
according to a report in the Korea Times. The former president hoped to
visit the country to join an international campaign calling for the
release of fellow Nobel laureate and pro-democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi.
Choi Kyung-hwan, the former president’s personal secretary, said the
Burmese Embassy immediately refused the application, which was interpreted
as an attempted intervention in the domestic affairs of Burma. According
to US Campaign for Burma, based in Washington, DC, two Nobel Peace
laureates—Jody Williams and Shirin Ebadi—planned to attend a demonstration
outside the Burmese consulate in the US capital organized to highlight Suu
Kyi’s unjust imprisonment and the need for concrete action on Burma by the
UN Security Council.

____________________________________
OPINION / OTHER

January 8, The Japan Times
Japan's peculiar silence on rights abuses - Sophie Richardson

New York: From Dec. 10-16, Japan observed "Korea Human Rights Week," a new
occasion stipulated by the June 2006 North Korean Human Rights Act. The
act, which built on Japan's cosponsorship of the 2005 United Nations
General Assembly resolution, is supposed to increase public awareness of,
and prevent, a variety of human rights abuses in North Korea, including
torture, abuse of repatriated refugees, constraints on freedom of thought,
expression and religion, and trafficking of women in China.

Throughout the week, nongovernmental organizations held a series of
thought-provoking conferences, and the government produced posters about
abuses and hosted a rally against North Korea's abduction of Japanese
citizens.

While these were positive steps, Japan can and must do more to promote
human rights in North Korea - and elsewhere - if its commitments are to be
meaningful rather than merely rhetorical. Although the rights of abducted
Japanese and their family members remain a serious concern, the Japanese
government's exclusive focus on these few dozen people - Prime Minister
Shinzo Abe has established a new desk in his office to track the problem -
is counterproductive.

In December 2005, Japan appointed an ambassador for human rights, yet
despite her broad mandate, the ambassador has focused solely on the
abduction issue. Japanese officials rarely mention the gross and chronic
human rights violations committed daily against 23 million North Koreans -
violations unrelated to the famine of the 1990s or the current food
crisis.

This stunning silence suggests that Japanese politicians care more about
playing on popular anti-North Korean sentiment than they do about
constructively helping victims of abuse.

If Japan is going to fulfill its commitments under the act, it must first
urgently resume its food aid through the World Food Program (WFP) and
press North Korea to let WFP and other aid organizations apply
internationally accepted standards for monitoring aid distribution.

Second, Japan must take steps to protect and assist those who flee human
rights abuses in North Korea. Japan should press China to stop arresting
and forcibly repatriating them, and to allow humanitarian nongovernment
organizations to operate along its border with North Korea.

Japan should provide asylum to North Korean asylum seekers and start
taking steps to allow resettlement of refugees. Unlike other developed
countries, the world's second-largest economy does not accept refugee
resettlement.

Finally, Japanese officials must start making a clear distinction in their
remarks between the North Korean government and ordinary citizens. Their
failure to date to do so has only helped to deepen suspicion among
Japanese of all North Koreans, even those who have been abused by the
government.

The Japanese government's shallow approach to North Korean Human Rights
Week is emblematic of Japan's generally flawed approach to promoting human
rights globally. Numerous Japanese leaders, including Prime Minister Abe,
have trumpeted their commitment to upholding human rights globally. But a
look at Japan's ties to just a few countries shows how weak those words
are, particularly given Japan's financial leverage.

Japan's ongoing relationship with the Myanmar military government is
probably the most glaring example. Tokyo has tried to claim a principled
policy by suspending some nonhumanitarian aid, yet its ongoing business
interests and political engagement sustain a crucial financial and
political lifeline for the ruling State Peace and Development Council.

The reality is that those funds and the political engagement enable the
SPDC to evade international sanctions and continue to restrict basic
rights, wage brutal counterinsurgency operations against ethnic minorities
(thousands killed, millions displaced) and keep Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and
other political activists detained or imprisoned - though you will never
hear Japanese officials publicly discuss those realities.
At a minimum, Japan needs to raise those realities publicly in unilateral
and multilateral settings.

Similarly, Japan's ties with Uzbekistan call into question Tokyo's
commitment to global human rights. In 2005, Junichiro Koizumi became the
first Japanese prime minister ever to visit Uzbekistan. On that visit, he
signed an agreement with Uzbek President Islam Karimov to increase Japan's
already substantial financial support. But Koizumi made no real mention of
the Uzbek government's atrocious human rights record, including its May
2005 massacre of hundreds of unarmed protesters as they fled a
demonstration in the city of Andijan.

As is the case with Myanmar, Japan's failure to condemn Uzbek human rights
abuses or to encourage offenders who have been brought to justice sends
the message to these governments that Japan cares more about business
interests than human rights. It tells these populations that Japan is
indifferent to their circumstances. In a Nov. 30 speech, Japanese Foreign
Minister Taro Aso talked about Japan's qualifications and determination to
promote human rights. "My friends," he said, "What Japanese diplomacy
needs is a vision."

In fact, the vision isn't lacking - the commitment is.

Japan must stand with victims and activists as well as challenge
governments and those who hold power to end abusive practices and to
respect international human rights law - without selectivity.

Otherwise, Japanese rhetoric about the importance of human rights will
remain imperceptible to starving North Koreans seeking shelter, victims of
Myanmar and Uzbek government atrocities who look to other countries for
assistance, and, indeed, probably even to abducted Japanese.

Sophie Richardson is deputy Asia director of Human Rights Watch, the
largest human rights organization based in the United States.