BurmaNet News, May 29, 2007

[Editor]

May 29, 2007 Issue # 3214

INSIDE BURMA
Khonumthung News: Six UNDP workers suspended for corruption
DVB via BBC: Burma's defence chief said hospitalized in Singapore for
dysentery
DVB via BBC: Released Burma detainee describes interrogation
Irrawaddy: New ILO liaison officer for Rangoon

ON THE BORDER
Mizzima News: Burmese delegation in Manipur despite border being sealed

BUSINESS / TRADE
Financial Express: Myanmar prefers China as gas buyer; India sees red
Thai Press: Export-import bank says Myanmar (Burma) paying back loan as
agreed

INTERNATIONAL
Deutsche Presse-Agentur: Release Nobel laureate, say Asia-Europe ministers
The Globe and Mail (South Africa): Is SA still a champion of human rights?
Irrawaddy: Philippines urges Burma to lift Suu Kyi's detention
Agencia de Informacao de Mocambique: Chissano joins call to free Aung San
Suu Kyi

OPINION / OTHER
The Economist Intelligence Unit: Myanmar's political prisoner
The Jakarta Post: Dismembering Myanmar

____________________________________
INSIDE BURMA

May 26, Khonumthung News
Six UNDP workers suspended for corruption

Six staff members of the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) in
Chin state, Myanmar were suspended in March for being involved in
corruption.

Mr. Stevan Van Bik, director of UNDP project in Chin state, was said to
have dismissed six UNDP staff in Hakha, Thantlang and Falam Township as
they were allegedly into corrupt practices.

"We have only heard that they were suspended for corruption. I don't know
what kind of corruption they were involved in," said a local in Thantlang.

The suspended UNDP staff members include Pu Ai Van, Pu Pho Cing, Pi Sui
Rem, Pi Parvang. The names of two more could not be ascertained.

UNDP workers in Chin state get between US $ 150 to 200 per month as basic
salary. They also receive traveling allowance.

Health, education, water supply, poultry farm and agricultural farm
projects are being run under UNDP programmes in some villages of Chin
state.

Recently, the UNDP selected around 15 villages for the project. Locals
from each village are said to have approached UNDP for some projects to be
conducted in their villages by paying money or giving domestic animals to
UNDP staff.

The volume of UNDP projects are allotted to villages in keeping with the
amount of money or domestic animals they give as bribe.

"The underdeveloped villages are put on top priority for the UNDP
projects. But some villagers bribe to win the project. It doesn't mean
that all those who give money are given the projects. It depends on how
much they can bribe," a local from Chin state said.

Therefore, UNDP employees take advantage from such competition among the
people. It has led to more corruption among workers and the project fails
due to misuse of money.


>From 1990 onwards some of the UNDP projects such as water supply, health

care and education began to be conducted in Chin state.

This is the first time UNDP staff members in Chin state have been
dismissed for corruption.

____________________________________

May 29, Democratic Voice of Burma via BBC Monitoring
Burma's defence chief said hospitalized in Singapore for dysentery

The Canada-based Burma Herald reported today that General Shwe Mann, chief
of general staff of Burma's Defence Services, was hospitalized in
Singapore as his health deteriorated unexpectedly.

The Burma Herald, whose editor is U Myint Swe, quoting reliable sources in
Burma reported that Gen Shwe Mann, the third most important man in the
State Peace and Development Council (SPDC), had been hospitalized since 26
May because of dysentery.

The hospitalization of the Burmese general comes at a time when SPDC Prime
Minister Gen Soe Win is also being treated for leukemia for the past
several months.

We tried to contact Burma about the news but to no one would give us an
answer.

____________________________________

May 29, Democratic Voice of Burma via BBC Monitoring
Released Burma detainee describes interrogation

Excerpt from report by Norway-based Burmese Democratic Voice of Burma on
28 May

Dear listeners, we have learned that the authorities today have released
the people who were arrested yesterday, including the elected
representative of the National League for Democracy. But, the more than 50
people who were arrested during their mass prayer campaign remain in
custody.

Here is a report filed by Ko Maung Tu who contacted Ko Zaw Win, who was
released today, and Ko Yarzar, who is leading the mass prayer campaign.

Ko Yarzar, who is heading the campaign for the freedom of Daw Aung San Suu
Kyi, recounted the release of detainees today.

[Begin Yarzar recording] At about 1100 today, authorities from the
Ministry of Home Affairs released the three persons who were arrested near
the Kyaikkasan Pagoda - Youth leader Ma Zin Ma Ma Tun of Myothit Township
and U Zaw Win and U Thaung Han, NLD organizers of Kyaukpadaung Township.
Also, four persons - Uncle U Thaung Myint, chairman of Dagon Myothit NLD,
Ko Pauk, Ko Aung Htay, and Ko Win Naing - were also sent home. Elected
Representative U Bala was also freed. Altogether eight were freed. [End
recording]

U Zaw Win, who came from Kyaukpadaung and who just gained his release,
described how he was taken into custody.

[Begin Zaw Win recording] While we were having tea at a shop, they grabbed
our arms and told us to go along with them. When we asked them which
organization they belonged to and where they were taking us, they said
they were, "the people". They dragged us into the car and took us to the
Kyaikkasan interrogation centre arriving there around 0815. [End
recording]

He also described how the detainees were interrogated.

[Begin Zaw Win recording] All of them interrogated us; all the three
groups - the Special Branch Police, the Military Affairs Security, and
others. What they wanted to know was the arrangements that were in place
after the function [to commemorated Election Day]. We told them we did not
know. At about 1100 today, they said we were to be released. They said we
were not to reveal anything about the interrogation to anyone and that we
would be charged under existing laws if we violated that agreement. We had
to sign papers to pledge that understanding. [End recording]

He also expressed his concern about the growing incidences of violence by
the so-called "people".

[Begin Zaw Win recording] The arrests and pandemonium resulting from the
use of force by these groups of so-called "people" are matters of grave
concern. When they sent us back by car to the Maggin Monastery where we
were staying, one of the responsible officers from the Special Branch said
they were afraid of these people also. He said he did not know who was
doing what and he dared not intervene. He said his people were even
threatened with beatings. I have heard that a car belonging to the
authorities was mistaken for a car sympathetic to the democracy elements
and was attacked. The car's windows were broken. So, who are we to rely on
for our protection? Who are we to report to if something should happen?
[End recording]

U Zaw Win also told us how he saw Ma Phyu Phyu Thin at the Kyaikkasan
interrogation centre.

[Begin Zaw Win recording] I saw Ma Phyu Phyu Thin and also Daw Tin Tin
Maw, a lady who staged solo protest in front of the Rangoon city hall, and
Ko Khin Htwe there. Four or five youths who took part in the mass prayer
campaign at Chauk Htat Kyi were there also. I did not see Ma Su Su Nway.
[End recording] [Passage omitted]

____________________________________

May 29, Irrawaddy
New ILO liaison officer for Rangoon - Yeni

The International Labour Organization’s liaison officer in Rangoon,
Richard Horsey, has resigned and will be succeeded by an ILO senior
officer, Steven Marshall.

Horsey served five years and represented the ILO in several stand-offs
with the regime over the use of forced labor in Burma. He scored one late
success with an agreement in late February establishing a mechanism for
complaints of forced labor to be filed with the ILO and investigated by
Burmese officials.

“The complaint mechanism has now been established and is functioning,”
Horsey said in a statement confirming his resignation.

The “understanding” reached by the ILO and the regime allows alleged
victims of forced labor to lodge complaints with the liaison officer
without fear of retaliation. The regime also pledges to investigate
complaints.

Horsey said the number of complaints had been increasing, and he had asked
a deputy minister of the Burmese Labor Ministry to approve extra
international staff to help process them. But the request had been denied,
he said.

In the three months since the establishment of the complaint mechanism,
the ILO office in Rangoon has received a total of 23 complaints—six from
Rangoon division, five from Irrawaddy division, four from Magwe division,
two from Pegu and one each from Chin, Kachin and Arakan states.

Horsey said he had rejected ten cases because he thought they were based
on issues not connected with forced labor, such as disputes with employers
over dismissal, pension rights or workers' welfare.

The regime had investigated the other complaints received by Horsey. It
ruled that some cases of supposed forced labor were in fact of "a minor
communal nature implemented by community elders in consultation with the
villagers," and others were of "a self-reliance basis."

In one instance, Horsey had received a letter from a complainant stating
that he wanted to withdraw his complaint. The authenticity of the letter
and the circumstances under which it was written were now being
investigated, Horsey said.

Labor rights activists have claimed that people are being conscripted
without pay in rural areas to work on local development projects as well
as on offensive military operations against ethnic insurgent groups, in
which they are used as porters.

Horsey’s performance as the ILO’s liason officer found approval from one
leading labor activist, Aye Myint, who said: "I believe that Horsey did
his job as best as he could. [And] I also believe that the ILO will
continue its good work here even after his replacement.”

____________________________________
ON THE BORDER

May 29, Mizzima News
Burmese delegation in Manipur despite border being sealed - Subhaschandra M

An eight member Burmese delegation arrived in Imphal despite the
international border in the Manipur sector being sealed. They will meet
Indian counterparts and participate in a sectoral level meeting on
Indo-Burma border trade in Gangtok, the capital of India's northeastern
state of Sikkim.

The Burmese delegation includes Director General Myat Ko, Director Kyin
Lin, Director Tin Htut, Director Kyaw Tint Lieutenant Colonel Thit Tuin
Ohm, Ministry of Defence, Director Immigration Department Win Myint and EE
People's Work Department U Khin.

On arrival in Moreh they were welcomed by Indian officials at the Border
bridge of Moreh's gate number 1.

The Indian officers who received the Burmese delegation were Immigration
Officer of Moreh police station Hushnejaman, who is the Sub-Divisional
Police Officer of the border town, W Nongyai, Officer in Charge of Moreh
Police and officials of the 24 Battalion of the Assam Rifles.

After verification of documents at the inspection bungalow of Assam Rifles
battalion in Moreh, the team arrived in Imphal on Sunday evening. They
left for Guwahati from Tulihal airport in Imphal today. From Guwahati the
team will go to Gangtok by road.

Moreh remained crippled for the fourth consecutive day on Monday due to
suspension of Indo-Burma border trade between the two countries following
a bomb explosion in Nanphalong border market in Burma on Friday.

Two Indian youths and six Burmese citizens were injured in the blast.
There is palpable tension in Moreh with almost all shops closed except for
a couple of non-local shops. In Manipur's state capital Imphal, most
passenger service vehicles did not find passengers due to the situation in
Moreh.

"Earlier we use to get a number of passengers, but since the last two days
we're not getting any passengers particularly traders," said Ibomcha, a
driver. Border trade has been paralysed as Moreh border gate number 1 and
2 bordering Burma's Nangaphalong in Burma's Tamu Township in Sagaing
division remains closed.

Many Indian traders particularly importers are stranded here since
Saturday. None of the Indian officials stationed here could say anything
about the reopening of the sealed border.

Officers in Moreh police station have no idea when the border will be
reopened. "Earlier they (Burmese authorities) have been known to seal the
border for almost a month," said an Indian trader stranded in India's
gateway to South Asian countries.

Last year too Nangphalong market had witnessed a similar blast in January
after which the Burmese Army sealed the border for almost a month.

Unofficial reports available here however suggest that the gates might be
re-opened after four or five days. Hushnejaman, Indian immigration
official in Moreh said, "we have no information in this regard".

____________________________________
BUSINESS / TRADE

May 28, Financial Express
Myanmar prefers China as gas buyer; India sees red - Anupama Airy

New Delhi: The government has decided to re-visit its future investment
plans in Myanmar’s energy sector after the country chose to sell gas from
its A1 and A3 blocks to China, and not to India Petroleum ministry
officials told FE that India’s interest in purchasing gas had been
overlooked despite the fact that Indian oil and gas PSUs had equity in the
two blocks. PetroChina, which most probably will buy most of the gas, has
no stake in these two blocks.

State-owned GAIL (India) Ltd and ONGC Videsh Ltd together hold 30% in the
A1 and A3 blocks, the lead operator being South Korea’s Daewoo
International with 60% stake. Korean Gas Company holds the balance 10%.

GAIL, which individually holds 20% in the A1 and A3 blocks (gas reserves
in the two blocks are estimated to be of 4.794 trillion cubic feet),
offered to buy the gas at $4.759 per mmbtu at a meeting called by the
Myanmar energy minister earlier this month. But the minister had bluntly
informed that the Myanmar government had already decided to export gas to
China and hence, the Indian offer would not be considered.

PetroChina actually offered a lower price of $4.279 per mmbtu (against its
offer of $4.98 per mmbtu) against GAIL’s $4.759 per mmbtu.

Moreover, the pipelines for bringing gas from Myanmar to China (including
the offshore portion bringing gas on-land and the on-land pipeline till
the Chinese border) were to be built by the consortium partners (including
Daewoo, ONGC Videsh and GAIL) at a pre-decided internal rate of return
(IRR) of 18%. But Myanmar is now favourably considering a Chinese proposal
to pare the IRR to 12%.

“GAIL is already re-considering its decision on whether to invest in the
A7 and other exploration blocks in Myanmar. Also, a decision on the Indian
companies’ participation in laying the pipeline for evacuating gas from
the A1 and A3 blocks will be taken only after the external affairs
ministry gives its views. Our participation in laying the pipeline is also
sensitive from the point of view that it will fund brining gas to China
against India’s wishes,” an official said.

Of the expected production of 600 million standard cubic feet of gas a day
from the two blocks, Myanmar has decided to export 560 mscfd to China.
China also operates several other blocks in the country.

Discussions during a recent meeting of the consortium partners with
PetroChina and the Myanmar government revealed that the consortium had
virtually no say on the gas sale from the two blocks.

A legal opinion obtained by Daewoo noted that the rights of the consortium
were not tilted in its favour with regard to disposal of gas.

____________________________________

May 29, Thai Press Reports
Export-import bank says Myanmar (Burma) paying back loan as agreed

The Export-Import Bank of Thailand on May 28 defended itself against
allegations that it made a controversial Bt4-billion loan to Myanmar
(Burma) under pressure from the former government of Thaksin Shinawatra,
saying the borrower has so far dutifully serviced all interest payments,
The Nation reports.

The Assets Examination Committee is proceeding with an investigation of
the loan, which was made during the term of the Thaksin government.
However, Exim Bank chairman Narongchai Akrasanee said Burma has disbursed
Bt3 billion so far and the remaining Bt1 billion of the loan will be fully
utilised when the contract ends next year. Exim Bank provided the loans
under government policy to encourage Thai firms to invest in neighbouring
countries, he said.

The AEC claims that Thaksin forced the bank to lend to the Burmese junta
to benefit his family's telecom business. Shin Satellite is one of the
Thai companies to benefit from the loans.

However, Narongchai said Burma borrowed to pay for products from Thai
companies because it was short of money, and Shin Sat is just one of 16
companies to benefit.

On another subject, Narongchai complained about the appreciation of the
Thai baht against US dollar.

The economic guru said he was not happy with high growth figures for
exports in the first four months of this year, pointing out that
multinational firms dominated Thailand's exports. He said small and medium
exporters have been hard hit by the rising value of the baht because it
squeezes their margins.

He also suggested that the Bank of Thailand revoke its 30-per cent
withholding measure, introduced in December to control capital inflows and
curb the growing strength of the baht.

"I still insist that the central bank should remove the capital-control
measures," he said.

Narongchai said he expects the volume of exports to grow by 8 per cent
this year, and political uncertainty will continue to affect both private
investment and the overall economy.

____________________________________
INTERNATIONAL

May 29, Deutsche Presse-Agentur
Release Nobel laureate, say Asia-Europe ministers

Foreign ministers from Asia and Europe called Tuesday on Myanmar to
release Aung San Suu Kyi, the Nobel Peace laureate who was told last week
she faced a further year under house arrest.

Diplomats said the final statement from the meeting in Hamburg, Germany of
16 Asian and 27 European Union ministers or their deputies would refer to
"a frank exchange of views on Myanmar."

Nyan Win, foreign minister of Myanmar, also known as Burma, was among
those at the conference table. The decision by Yangon on Friday to extend
Suu Kyi's arrest was seen by many European diplomats as an affront.

A draft final statement in Hamburg appealed for an "early lifting of
restrictions placed on political parties and the early release of those
under detention including Daw Aung San Suu Kyi."

The final statement was also expected to express "deep concern on the lack
of tangible progress in the declared transition towards a civilian and
democratic government" in Myanmar.

The ministers would encourage "Myanmar to make greater progress towards
national reconciliation as well as to involve constructively all political
parties and ethnic groups in an inclusive dialogue," the diplomats said.

Suu Kyi, 61, has spent almost 12 of the past 17 years under house arrest
at her family compound in Yangon. Sunday marked the fourth anniversary of
her most recent term of detention.

____________________________________

May 29, The Globe and Mail (South Africa)
Is SA still a champion of human rights?

Cape Town, South Africa: Opposition parties on Tuesday castigated the
government for not doing more to uphold human rights around the world,
particularly in Burma (Myanmar) and Zimbabwe.

Speaking in the National Assembly debate on the foreign affairs budget
vote, Freedom Front Plus leader Pieter Mulder said South Africa has lost
its image as the champion of human rights in the world.

Burma opposition leader Daw Aung San Suu Kyi has been in detention for
more than 11 of the past 17 years, and there is a worldwide campaign
against the military junta and its human rights violations.

"[But] when, as part of this campaign, the United Nations Security Council
was asked to condemn the human rights violations in Myanmar, including the
detention of the opposition leader, South Africa was one of the few
countries that voted against it. Speaker, it was a big mistake," he said.

Among the reasons given by South Africa were that the detention of an
opposition leader was not a threat to world peace and that Professor
Ibrahim Gambari, the special UN envoy for Burma, reported progress in that
country.

"What progress? Last week Myanmar's military junta extended the house
arrest of the opposition leader for yet another year, ignoring
international pleas for her release. The message they got from South
Africa's vote in the Security Council is that the world is divided on this
issue and that they may continue with their human rights violations.

"Because the minister [of foreign affairs] and the department have not yet
reacted to this new detention in Myanmar, must I conclude that they
approve of it?" Mulder asked.

In the 1960s, very few people in the world knew who Nelson Mandela was.
His detention was not a threat to world peace. Why, then, did the African
National Congress (ANC) use every possible strategy, including the
Security Council, to make the world aware of his plight?

"When there is a similar campaign to do exactly the same for Aung San Suu
Kyi, it is South Africa and the ANC that votes against it."

Last Friday, Zimbabwe extended a ban on political protests in Harare and
on Saturday police raided the Movement for Democratic Change's head office
and detained more than 200 people.

"Why? Is the country at war? No. A very simple reason. The president of
that country feels threatened that he might lose his position in the next
election. Because the minister and the department have not yet reacted to
the Zimbabwe ban and raid, must I conclude that they approve of it?

"How sad that within 13 years South Africa has lost its image as the
champion of human rights in the world," Mulder said.

'Negative'

The Democratic Alliance's Douglas Gibson said it is a great pity South
Africa's recent chairmanship of the UN Security Council has turned into
"such a negative", damaging the country's relations and reputation.

"I regret that the attitude on Myanmar, or Burma, was so dismally
legalistic and bureaucratic. It put us on the wrong side of history.

"One can only urge the government to take steps to put it right by raising
it in the Human Rights Council and wherever else appropriate so that South
Africa is seen to be doing the right thing in support of the legitimate
aspirations of democrats in Burma and the release of Aung San Suu Kyi,"
Gibson said.

His colleague, Joe Seremane, said the lack of any condemnation of the
situation in Zimbabwe is regretful. Daily, thousands of Zimbabweans
illegally enter South Africa in search of food and money to keep their
families alive.

The Department of Foreign Affairs should make it clear it would not
support a government that did this to its citizens, Seremane said.

United Democratic Movement leader Bantu Holomisa said South Africa's
tenure as president of the Security Council is characterised by a lack of
policy direction and clarity.

"For instance, we were misconstrued in our opposition to the motion
against Myanmar, and we received criticism even back here in South
Africa," he said.

____________________________________

May 29, Irrawaddy
Philippines urges Burma to lift Suu Kyi's detention - Shah Paung

The Philippines government Tuesday urged the Burmese junta to reconsider
its decision to extend the house arrest of Burmese opposition leader Aung
San Suu Kyi one year.

"We
 urge the Myanmar government to reconsider its decision and lift the
house arrest of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi," said Philippines Foreign Secretary
Alberto Romulo in a statement.

The Burmese government has claimed full “adherence” to its "roadmap" to
move toward democracy, but "this delay in Daw Aung San Suu Kyi's release
and those of other political prisoners reflects the Myanmar [Burma]
government's unwillingness to demonstrate its genuine commitment to full
democratization and national reconciliation,” Romulo said.

The Philippines joined the calls of other Asean countries and
international governments in urging the release of Suu Kyi and other
political prisoners in Burma. Currently, the Philippines holds the chair
of Asean, a 10-member block of Asian nations.

On Monday, Indonesia voiced its concern, saying Burma's military
government was proving to be an embarrassment to Asean member countries. 
The UN estimates there are more than 1,100 political prisoners in Burma.

Indonesia is “deeply concerned” that Burma “ignored appeals made by Asean
member countries as well as the international communities," said Indonesia
Foreign Minister spokesman Kristiarto Legowo.

Suu Kyi has spent almost 11 of the past 18 years under hose arrest in
Rangoon. Her latest house arrest began on May 30, 2003, after she and
hundreds of her supporters were attacked by a junta-backed mob.

Japanese Foreign Ministry spokesman Taro Aso told reporters Monday at an
EU-Asia meeting in Hamburg, Germany, that Burma's Foreign Minister told
him the extension of Suu Kyi's house arrest was “a difficult decision” for
the Burmese government.

____________________________________

May 25, Agencia de Informacao de Mocambique (Maputo)
Chissano joins call to free Aung San Suu Kyi

Mozambique's former President, Joaquim Chissano, is one of 59 former heads
of state and government who have sent an open letter to the Burmese
military junta calling for the immediate release of the leader of the
country's National League for Democracy, Aung San Suu Kyi.

The signatories point out that she is the world's only imprisoned Nobel
Peace Prize Laureate, and that her most recent term of house arrest is
scheduled to end this Sunday, 27 May.

In their letter, the 59 former presidents and prime ministers remind
Burma's military strongman, General Than Shwe, that UN Secretary-General
Ban Ki-moon has urged the release of Aung San Suu Kyi, and that 27 May
"affords an excellent opportunity to respond to his request".

They point out that the UN General Assembly, the European Union, ASEAN and
many of Burma's neighbours (including Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and
Thailand) are among the many institutions and countries that have called
for Aung San Suu Kyi's release.

The letter noted the UN General Assembly resolution of 2006 which
"strongly called upon your government to release all political prisoners
immediately and unconditionally".

The letter points out that "Aung San Suu Kyi is not calling for revolution
in Burma, but rather peaceful, non-violent dialogue between the military,
the National League for Democracy, and Burma's ethnic groups".

The former heads of state conclude by urging Than Shwe "to respond to the
United Nations and countless other countries and regional groupings around
the world by releasing Aung San Suu Kyi before 27 May and committing to
participate in peaceful, tripartite dialogue as outlined by the General
Assembly".

Among those who have signed this letter alongside Chissano are three
former presidents of the United States - Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton and
George Bush Senior.

Among the African signatories are the former Presidents of Zambia and
Tanzania, Kenneth Kaunda and Benjamin Mkapa, and the last democratically
elected leader of Sudan, Sadiq Al-Mahdi.

As might be exopected, many of the signatories are prominent Asian figures
including two former presidents of the Philippines (Corazon Aquino and
Fidel Ramos), former Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, former South
Korean President Kim dae-Jung, former Indonesian President Mgawati
Sukarnoputri, and former Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi.

____________________________________
OPINION / OTHER

May 29, The Economist Intelligence Unit
Myanmar's political prisoner

The junta extends the house arrest of Aung San Suu Kyi

On May 25th Myanmar's military rulers extended for another year the house
arrest of the Nobel Peace Prize-winning opposition leader, Aung San Suu
Kyi. Not only was the junta's move widely expected, but the prospects for
Aung San Suu Kyi's early release, or indeed for any meaningful political
reform, are perhaps slimmer than ever despite continuing international
condemnation. Though it is invariably hard to tell with secretive Myanmar,
this may be because the military regime is itself at a delicate juncture
given suspected internal concerns over the stability of its ailing
leadership. As the junta is also thought nearly to have finished drafting
principles for a new constitution that would, under the guise of
democracy, cement its grip on power, it will seek to avoid potentially
destabilising actions—which the release of Aung San Suu Kyi would
undoubtedly constitute, in the generals' eyes—until its self-serving
political "reforms" are more advanced.

Aung San Suu Kyi's period of house arrest had been due to expire on May
27th, which ironically was the 17th anniversary of the 1990 general
election in which her party, the National League for Democracy (NLD), won
an overwhelming majority. That result, infamously, was never recognised by
the junta, which has continued to persecute Aung San Suu Kyi and her
supporters ever since. Indeed, Aung San Suu Kyi now enjoys the dubious
distinction of being one of the world's most famous political detainees.
She was last released from house arrest in May 2002. But the large crowds
of supporters that she drew as she travelled outside the city of Yangon
for the first time in many years alarmed the junta. The generals quickly
ended the détente. In late May 2003 Aung San Suu Kyi's motorcade was
attacked during a tour of the north of the country, and a number of her
supporters were killed or injured. Aung San Suu Kyi was initially jailed,
and was subsequently placed back under house arrest in Yangon, where she
remains.

This state of affairs is likely to continue. The junta's renewal of Aung
San Suu Kyi's house arrest clearly shows its immediate intentions
regarding the NLD's leader, and military rule will almost certainly remain
as entrenched as ever. This does not mean, however, that the political
situation in the country will be one of total stasis. Indeed, the junta's
position towards Aung San Suu Kyi may have hardened further in reaction to
developments that could significantly alter the political status
quo—albeit to the exclusion of genuine democratisation.
Reform, but not as we know it

The first of these developments is the junta's ongoing effort, partly in
response to international pressure, to push on with its "road map to
democracy". Despite the encouraging-sounding label, this process will
involve only token reforms that will not advance political freedom
significantly. The reform process so far has been protracted--many critics
of the regime see it as little more than a stalling tactic in the face of
international pressure. Moreover, even if it is completed in a timely
manner, with the eventual holding of supposedly free and fair elections,
the entire process has been engineered to ensure that the military will
retain a firm grip on power. Officials have indicated that the National
Convention, the body set up by the junta to draft guidelines for a new
constitution, will complete the drafting process this year. This is only
one of the first steps on the road map, so further lengthy delays can be
expected before political reforms take effect, if at all.

In addition to ensuring that the military is constitutionally guaranteed
some direct role in any new political system, the generals also appear to
be introducing measures that will enable them indirectly to control any
future, ostensibly civilian, government. Senior members of the junta may
resign from their military posts at some point in order to lead a new
governing council or transitional government. The junta's agenda is
already visible in lower-level personnel changes. The State Peace and
Development Council (SPDC, as the junta is officially known) has been
revamping local government by placing pro-military personnel in key posts.
In mid-February reports emerged that more than 1,000 middle-ranking
military officers had been ordered to retire, with many being moved into
local-government administrative positions. This decision may have been
intended to ensure that the planned referendum on the constitution (which
is another, later, step on the road map) is passed without opposition,
although part of the reason for the move may be house-keeping within the
military. Myanmar's huge armed forces are rather top-heavy.
Succession issues

Another development that may be affecting decisions on political reform is
the emergence of the question of succession. The chairman of the SPDC,
Senior General Than Shwe, is reportedly in poor health. So too are some
other leading junta officials, most notably the prime minister and
fourth-ranked member of the SPDC hierarchy, General Soe Win, who is
believed to be suffering from leukaemia. In mid-May reports emerged that
Lieutenant-General Thein Sein, number five in the hierarchy, had stepped
in as acting prime minister.

The illness, incapacitation or death of key figures in the junta could
severely destabilise the SPDC. There is no effective mechanism for the
transfer of power among the top generals. Thus there is no certainty, for
example, as to who would succeed General Than Shwe. Given the competing
factions within the leadership hierarchy, this could result in all sorts
of internal tensions. The fact that the junta has a history of purging
senior leaders also suggests the transition may not be smooth. (For
example, a former number two in the SPDC, General Khin Nyunt, was ousted
in 2004, while former leader Ne Win ended his days under house arrest.)
Whither democracy?

All of this is likely to make the junta doubly cautious about permitting
greater freedom of political expression, let alone releasing Aung San Suu
Kyi—not that it was likely to have countenanced either move even in the
absence of the above factors. International pressure on the junta is
mounting--earlier this month more than 50 former heads of state added
their signatures to a letter to the junta calling for Aung San Suu Kyi's
release—but these efforts are likely to remain ineffective. Among other
problems, support for the regime from China, Russia and some South-east
Asian countries has hampered international efforts to bring about change;
this is likely to continue.

Grassroots dissent appears to be increasing, albeit on a very small scale.
There have been a number of small public displays of opposition to the
junta and support for the NLD leader in recent months, most notably by the
"88 Generation", a group led by activists who were involved in the 1988
pro-democracy protests. The junta initially made a rare display of
tolerance, but it is now cracking down on such activists, sometimes
violently. Although the momentum behind these opposition campaigns is
building despite the risks facing those taking part, for now, sadly, it
remains almost inconceivable that a movement of popular dissent could
unseat the regime. Aung San Suu Kyi is likely to remain famous as a
political prisoner for some time to come.

____________________________________

May 29, The Jakarta Post
Dismembering Myanmar

Everything changes, but some things stay the same. We in ASEAN face this
paradox. Over several years, the premier regional grouping in Southeast
Asia has evolved, in many respects for the better.

Officials may quote proudly the list of declarations which have become a
framework for various cooperative arrangements, but, perhaps, the most
valuable of changes has not emerged from any lengthy negotiation or
political compromise.

The most gradual, yet profound, change has been the evolution of (some)
member states' attitudes in promulgating a more values-based approach to
the conduct of the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations
(ASEAN).

The change has been sluggish, even lethargic at times. But, undeniably,
change there is.

At all levels of engagement -- track-one, two and three diplomacy -- a
higher degree of honesty is prevalent in the exchange of views.

Blunt opinions expressed with the best intentions, without malice or spite.

The socio-political upheavals in Indonesia have been a catalyst for the
changes. So too the preponderance of democracy as the global premier
ideology, albeit not necessarily in Southeast Asia.

These changes have come during an important era in ASEAN's often
unexceptional history. As the regional grouping marks its 40th anniversary
this year, we are pleased to have reached a juncture at which fellow
Southeast Asians must no longer gloss over our malfeasance or be blind to
our faux pas.

It is about time ASEAN grew up. And although the level of oneness varies,
we can say that a core body of members seems to be increasingly onboard.


But what happens when a member-state openly rejects these values?

Myanmar's continued refusal to allow even the smallest hint of political
openness and its blatant subversion of the political process is one of
these cases.

Yangon's decision Friday to extend the detention of Aung San Suu Kyi,
despite the strongest calls to do otherwise from Indonesian and Philippine
officials, shows its complete disregard for the growing values of ASEAN.

The Indonesian Foreign Ministry was right when it said Monday that
Myanmar's decision had hurt the good image of ASEAN.

Other ASEAN states have been too patient, given too many opportunities and
been embarrassed enough by the military regime.

Being a member of ASEAN not only signifies geographical proximity but also
a general sense of shared values and mutual respect. On the latter part,
Myanmar is certainly flaunting a caustic attitude.

Dismemberment from ASEAN is too drastic a measure, but some form of
ostracism is called for given Myanmar's continued preference to place
itself as a liability and an embarrassment to ASEAN.

But Indonesia should also not complain, since it is reaping the
consequences of its own past failures in maintaining a kid-glove approach
to Yangon.

Perhaps next time our diplomats will think twice about refusing to support
a UN Security Council resolution on Myanmar, as they did earlier this
year.