BurmaNet News, May 30, 2007

[Editor]

May 30, 2007 Issue # 3215

INSIDE BURMA
Irrawaddy: NLD marks four-year anniversary of Depayin massacre
DVB: CRPP warns military over crackdown on protests
DVB: ILO complainant threatened by officials

BUSINESS / TRADE
Irrawaddy: Burmese junta cracks down on tax evasion cases
Xinhua: Trade zone set up in Myanmar western border town
UPI: India to review gas investment in Myanmar

HEALTH / AIDS
Reuters: Malaria, drug-resistant TB flourish in Myanmar

INTERNATIONAL
AP: EU, Asian ministers call on Myanmar to release pro-democracy leader
Suu Kyi
TASS: Russia is going to build nuclear research centre in Myanmar

OPINION / OTHER
Mizzima News: Burma's generals may ditch roadmap to democracy - Larry Jagan
The Economist: Aung San Suu Kyi is saintly, but is she right?

____________________________________
INSIDE BURMA

May 30, Irrawaddy
NLD marks four-year anniversary of Depayin massacre - Shah Paung

The National League for Democracy, Burma's main opposition party,
successfully concluded religions ceremonies in Rangoon on Wednesday
marking the four-year anniversary of the Depayin massacre, while junta
authorities closely monitored the activities.

The NLD held Depayin massacre ceremonies in other locations as well,
including Mandalay in central Burma, where, in a bizarre turn of events,
the ceremony was also attended by Union Solidarity Development Association
members, the organization responsible for the Depayin massacre.

According to Myint Thein, a spokesman for the National League for
Democracy, the Rangoon ceremonies included offering food to monks at the
home of an NLD member, May Hnin Kyi. The ceremony, attended by about 700
people, started at 9 a.m.

Another ceremony with 300 people was held at the residence of Win Naing,
the organizer of the NLD Rangoon Division.

Myint Thein said the Burmese authorities observed the ceremonies and took
pictures of participants.

Win Mya Mya, an organizer of the Mandalay Division of the NLD, said about
200 people attended a ceremony at a monastery in Mandalay. The ceremony
started at 8 a.m. with a communal offering of provisions to 250 monks.

Later, at 10 a.m., NLD members offered food to 30 patron monks at
Masoeyein Monastery and religions observances were held.

During the ceremony about 1,000 junta-backed members of the USDA either
participated in the ceremony or observed it from the road.

On May 30, 2003, a mob of USDA members attacked opposition leader Aung San
Suu Kyi and her supporters at Depayin in Sagaing Division in northern
Burma, killing dozens of people.

Win Mya Mya said on May 18, NLD members in Mandalay asked monks at
Masoeyein Monastery to hold a religions ceremony marking the Depayin
anniversary. One day later, she said the Minster for Religions Affairs,
Brig-Gen Thura Myint Maung, requested monks at the monastery to hold a
similar ceremony.

Then, on Monday, USDA members asked monks at if the members could clean
the monastery and compound and asked the monks if NLD members could hold a
food offering with NLD. The monks requested the NLD to agree to the
request as it showed a spirit of peace. The ceremony has held with the two
groups, with the NLD on one side and the USDA on the other.

Authorities from the Special Branch, Bureau of Special Investigation, USDA
and Military Affairs Security took pictures of the ceremony with more than
20 cameras.

Win Mya Mya said it was “unusual” for the USDA to join a ceremony
organized by the NLD. There were no incidents and the event was peaceful,
observers said.

“Our focus was to dedicate and remember those killed in Depayin by
offering foods to monks,” she said. “We do not know what the USDA was
doing. It could have been a way for them to keep their eyes on what the
NLD was doing.”

NLD members in exile and other Burmese activist groups also observed the
Depayin four-year anniversary by holding protests in front of selected
Burmese embassies.

____________________________________

May 30, Democratic Voice of Burma
CRPP warns military over crackdown on protests

Burma’s Committee Representing the People’s Parliament warned the military
yesterday over recent crackdowns on peaceful public protests.

CRPP secretary U Aye Thar Aung told DVB that the opposition would hold the
military government responsible for any violence against prayer
campaigners or demonstrators.

“We would like to warn the [State Peace and Development Council]
authorities that, if they are going to act like thugs and use violent
methods against peaceful movements, the consequences will be their own
responsibility,” U Aye Thar Aung said.

In the past two months more than 60 activists and politicians have been
abducted or arrested by unidentified people after attending prayer
campaigns for the release of democracy icon Daw Aung San Suu Kyi or public
protests.

The military has denied any responsibility for the arrests, claiming they
were the work of “the people”.

“The SPDC, which has said it is going to construct a democratic country,
is using a lot of different methods to limit, prevent and stop political
parties . . . such acts contradict what they have said,” U Aye Thar Aung
said.

____________________________________

May 30, Democratic Voice of Burma
ILO complainant threatened by officials

A villager from Kyauktagar township in Bago division told DVB yesterday he
had been harassed by local military officials after filing a forced labour
claim with the International Labour Organization.

U Nyan Win, from Nyaung Wai village, said he filed a complaint with the
ILO on behalf of another man from his village, U Ko Ko Gyi, who spent a
year working for the military as a porter after being abducted.

U Nyan Win said that since he filed the complaint, he has been harassed
and threatened by local officials. He said the on May 18, Kyauktagar
authorities forced him to sign an agreement saying he would never file
another forced labour claim.

“I told them I could not sign the agreement since I didn’t do anything
wrong. But they didn’t agree with me and started to actually force me to
sign it. They physically forced me and my shirt got ripped,” U Nyan Win
said.

“They pulled my thumb onto the paper to press my finger print on it. Then
they said that since I had made my mark on it that they would take action
against me if I filed another claim,” he said.

Under a recent agreement between the ILO and the Burmese military, the
government cannot take legal action against forced labour claimants. News
of the alleged harassment comes just one day before the ILO Labour
Conference is due to convene in Geneva to discuss a variety of issues,
including the Burmese government’s observance of international labour
conventions.

____________________________________
BUSINESS / TRADE

May 30, The Irrawaddy
Burmese junta cracks down on tax evasion cases

Burmese authorities are increasing the pressure on dozens of Rangoon
businesses in an effort to prevent tax evasion, following similar actions
earlier against the business community by the Ministry of Home Affairs'
Bureau of Special Investigations.

Business sources in Rangoon told The Irrawaddy on Wednesday that
authorities have detained some leading businessmen, including Maung Weik,
the founder of Maung Weik & Family Co, and are conducting investigations
into the financial records of various businesses.

Maung Weik gained prominence a decade ago and his company has since become
the country's largest importer of steel and gilding glue. The exact number
and location of the detained businessmen is not known.

Some of Rangoon's biggest companies, such as Max Myanmar, AA Pharmacy, the
Peace Myanmar Group and International Beverage Trading, are among the
businesses reportedly being targeted for investigation.

Rangoon sources noted, however, that other major enterprises which are
close to the junta or operated by the relatives and cronies of military
leaders, such as the Htoo Trading Company, owned by Tay Za, who is close
to Snr-Gen Than Shwe, and Aye Yar Shwe Wa, owned by Aung Thet Mann, son of
Gen Thura Shwe Mann, have not been affected by the crackdown.

The Rangoon-based weekly Pyi Myanmar quoted an official in the Finance and
Revenue Ministry who said of 20,000 private companies an estimated 60
percent are believed to have evaded paying proper taxes.

"Companies failing to do so will be dealt with a fine of 50 percent of the
tax amount or (businessmen) will be jailed for a term of three to 10
years," one official said.

Burma's tax revenue was 400 billion kyats (US $325 million) in the 2005-06
fiscal year, "a significant increase over the previous years but much
lower than targeted," according to Pyi Myanmar.

Since early last year, Burma’s military government has aggressively
enforced a new tax policy and an improved tax collection procedure to try
to gain better control of the economy.

A Rangoon source said the government's actions have prompted some
businessmen to flee the country.

____________________________________

May 30, Xinhua General News Service
Trade zone set up in Myanmar western border town

A trade zone has been set up in Myanmar's western border town of Maungtaw
in Rakhine state linking Bangladesh to mainly export marine products to
the neighbor, fishery business circle said on Wednesday.

The Maungtaw border trade zone, formally opened in last weekend, will deal
initially with the sale of prawn only, prawn traders said.

According to official statistics, Myanmar exported 23,000 tons of marine
products to Bangladesh annually, standing as Bangladesh's fifth largest
marine products importing country out of 30.

Meanwhile, the two countries are negotiating to extend the sale of Myanmar
prawn directly to Chittagong, the sources added.

Maungtaw represents one of the four border towns of Myanmar where
transformation from border trade system to normal trade one has been or is
being carried out.

The first and largest border trade zone, which is the 105th Mile Muse
Border Trade Zone in Shan state with China, was established in April last
year. The second and third of its kind go to Myawaddy in southeastern
Kayin state with Thailand and Tamu in northwestern Sagaing division with
India.

In September 1995, Myanmar and Bangladesh initiated formal border trade at
Maungtaw of Myanmar and Teknaf of Bangladesh.

In January 2002, Bangladesh opened a river port at Teknaf in the
southernmost of the country, providing the shortest river link with
Maungtaw to facilitate their bilateral trade.

Currently, Myanmar and Bangladesh are engaged more in border trade than
normal trade. Besides marine products, Myanmar's exports to Bangladesh
also cover beans and pulses and kitchen crops, while its imports from
Bangladesh include pharmaceuticals, ceramic, cotton fabric, raw jute,
kitchenware and cosmetic.

According to local reports, bilateral trade between Myanmar and Bangladesh
reached over 60 million U.S. dollars in the fiscal year 2005-06. Of the
total, Myanmar's export to Bangladesh stood 55 million dollars, favoring
Myanmar.

The two countries are striving to increase their bilateral trade to 100
million dollars, said the Ministry of Commerce.

Besides border trade, Myanmar and Bangladesh also placed emphasis on
maritime trade, signing in Yangon a technical protocol on coastal
sea-borne trade between the two countries in July 2004.

____________________________________

May 29, United Press India
India to review gas investment in Myanmar

India is planning to review future investment in Myanmar's energy sector
after Yangon said it would sell gas to China.

India is unhappy with Myanmar, formerly Burma, as it decided to sell gas
produced from A1 and A3 blocks to China, The Financial Express newspaper
reported Tuesday.

New Delhi has said Yangon overlooked India's interest though India's
state-run oil and gas companies hold stakes in the two blocks. China has
no stake in the fields.

India's state-owned Gas Authority of India Ltd. and ONGC Videsh Ltd. hold
30 percent equity in the A1 and A3 blocks. South Korea's Daewoo
International has 60 percent stakes and is the lead operator of the
blocks, and the Korean Gas Company holds the rest.

GAIL offered to buy gas at $4.759 per million British thermal units at a
meeting recently called by Myanmar's energy ministry. The ministry refused
to consider India's offer, however.

"GAIL is already reconsidering its decision on whether to invest in the A7
and other blocks in Myanmar," a GAIL spokesman said. "We will take a
decision on whether or not to review our participation in laying a
pipeline to transport gas from A1 and A3 blocks only after ascertaining
the views of the foreign ministry," the spokesman said.

____________________________________
HEALTH / AIDS

May 30, Reuters
Malaria, drug-resistant TB flourish in Myanmar - Ed Cropley

Mae Sot, Thailand: Simmering civil war, fake drugs and a non-existent
health service in Myanmar are creating the perfect breeding ground for
new, drug-resistant strains of killer diseases such as malaria and
tuberculosis.

While the most immediate threat beyond Myanmar's borders is to Thailand,
home to a large migrant and refugee population from the military-ruled
former Burma, the long-term implications of neglect could be felt right
across the globe, experts say.

At stake is a Chinese drug called artemisinin, the world's most powerful
weapon against malaria, a disease that kills more than a million people a
year, most of them children in sub-Saharan Africa.

The drug is most effective when used with other treatments in what are
called artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACTs).

But doctors say taking ACTs incorrectly or in doses that include fake
pills is one of the easiest ways of allowing the mosquito-borne parasite
which causes malaria to build up immunity.

Such behavior appears to be commonplace, Thai health officials say, in
Myanmar, where health spending is only a few dollars a year for each of
the country's 53 million people.

Decades of civil war against ethnic militias in eastern Myanmar have
worsened the situation; A study by the Thailand-based Backpack Health
Worker Team showed the region's 500,000 internal refugees have malaria
infection rates as high as 12 percent.

"So far, the malaria parasite has started to develop resistance to all
drugs apart from those in the artemisinin family," said Francois Nosten, a
French malaria expert in the northwestern Thai border town of Mae Sot.

“If this starts to happen, there is cause for real concern."

One drug-resistant strain born in Southeast Asia has already made it to
Africa, Nosten said. If an artemisinin-resistant variety reached the
continent, the effects would be devastating.

"If we find evidence that it has changed to become resistant to
artemisinin, we would have to contain it here -- but how you would do
that, I just don't know," said Nosten, director of the Shoklo Malaria
Research Unit, a field station attached to Bangkok's Mahidol University.

While Nosten said there were no signs yet of malaria becoming immune to
ACTs in the jungle-clad border region, the same cannot be said of
tuberculosis, a disease that -- as with malaria -- had been on the retreat
in Thailand.

Mae Sot general hospital, a sprawling complex overflowing with Burmese and
Thai patients, has admitted 105 Thai and 38 Myanmar TB patients so far
this year compared to 102 and 79 in the whole of 2006.

More worrying still, five cases were "multi-drug resistant", meaning
patients have to undergo an expensive and arduous two-year course of pills
and injections. Even then, there is only a 50 percent chance of survival.

Aid agency Medecins Sans Frontieres (MSF) (Doctors Without Borders), which
is treating 15 "multi-drug resistant" Myanmar patients in a refugee camp
in Thailand, is acutely aware of the problems of treating TB patients in
fluid populations.

Treatment normally lasts six months, but many patients feel better after
half way through and so stop taking the pills.

"There needs to be a huge push in TB education, in telling people the
extreme importance of taking the treatment properly and not stopping as
soon as you start to feel better," MSF Mae Sot's field coordinator Andres
Romero said. "But with migrants, how do you follow up to ensure they have
not become a defaulter? They've no mobile, no landline, no address."

STRUGGLING

Although wealthy and advanced by regional standards, Thailand's public
health system in Mae Sot is struggling under the weight of dealing with an
estimated 150,000 migrants from Myanmar -- and the diseases they bring
with them.

Apart from a one-off payment from the Global Fund to treat TB in migrants,
Mae Sot hospital gets no extra government cash for the thousands of
Burmese flooding across the highly porous border, drawn by the prospect of
free health care.

Its open-air corridors are choked with beds and patients hooked up to
drips beneath whirring ceiling fans. Relatives of the sick, who range from
landmine amputees to TB patients on respirators, lie curled up on reed
mats beneath many of the beds.

"We treat every patient who comes here, Burmese or Thai, exactly the same.
Not to do so would be completely unethical," director Kanoknart
Pisultakoon said.

"Often the Burmese have tried to treat themselves and it hasn't worked so
when they come to hospital they are very sick. Then, when they get better,
they go back to Myanmar and tell their friends.

"The word spreads and every year, there are more migrants, more patients
and more serious diseases," Kanoknart said. "It makes me worry for the
future -- how we can control the migrants."

____________________________________
INTERNATIONAL

May 30, Associated Press
EU, Asian ministers call on Myanmar to release pro-democracy leader Suu Kyi

European Union and Asian nations urged Myanmar's military government to
lift restrictions on political parties and to end the five-year house
arrest of pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi.

Foreign ministers of EU and Asian countries made the appeal on Tuesday at
the end of two days of talks, in which Myanmar's Nyan Win participated.

The ministers expressed "deep concern on the lack of tangible progress" in
commitments made by Myanmar's military leaders to introduce democratic
reforms, according to a statement released by the host nation Germany. The
foreign ministers urged Myanmar to ensure the "early lifting of
restrictions placed on political parties and the early release of those
under detention," including Suu Kyi.

They also urged Win at the meeting to live up to an agreement it signed to
ban forced labor.

Japanese Foreign Ministry spokesman Mitsuo Sakaba said Win disagreed with
his counterparts' tough stance against his country during talks here, and
defended his government's decision to keep Suu Kyi under house arrest.

The EU and other supporters of Suu Kyi had already condemned last week's
decision by Myanmar's military government to extend her house arrest by
one year.

Suu Kyi, leader of the opposition National League for Democracy party and
winner of the 1991 Nobel Peace Prize, has spent more than 11 of the past
17 years in detention.

Officials said EU ministers reiterated criticism against the undemocratic
rule of Myanmar's military junta on Tuesday.

Myanmar, also known as Burma, joined the 45-nation Asia-Europe Meeting
grouping in 2004 along with Vietnam and Cambodia despite reservations by
the EU, which has imposed diplomatic and economic sanctions on the Asian
country.

EU foreign ministers ignored Win during a pre-dinner reception on Monday
at the start of the two-day EU-Asia ministerial meeting.

The military took power in Myanmar in 1988 after crushing vast
pro-democracy demonstrations.

When Suu Kyi's party won a general election by a landslide on May 27,
1990, Junta leaders refused to hand over power, insisting the country
first needed a new constitution. The military has continued to rule while
persecuting members of the pro-democracy movement.

____________________________________

May 30, TASS
Russia is going to build nuclear research centre in Myanmar

A next round of talks on the construction of a nuclear research centre in
Myanmar with Russia's assistance will be held in this in Asian country in
the second half of this year, the press service of Atomstroieksport
company told ITAR-TASS on Wednesday.

“By that time a procedure is to be determined for the preparation of a
contract for the construction of the centre, the cost of which is
estimated at 200-400 million euros,'' it said.

An intergovernmental agreement on cooperation between the Russian Federal
Agency for Nuclear Energy (Rosatom) and the Ministry of Science and
Technology of Myanmar was signed in Moscow two weeks ago.

Atomstroieksport's first vice president Alexander Glukhov said that the
“agreement envisaged cooperation in design and the construction in Myanmar
of a nuclear research centre by specialists of our company''.

The centre is to have a 10-megawatt research light water reactor in which
20 percent enriched uranium 235 will be used as fuel.

The center ``will carry out a complex of work in the filed of nuclear
physics and biotechnology and to produce a wide spectrum of
pharmaceuticals for medicine''.

The center will be complete with an installation for recycling and burial
of radioactive waste.

“Such centres are usually built during five years.''

Rosatom's experts earlier said that the centre in Myanmar would be under
the control and guarantee of the International Atomic Energy Agency.

About 350 specialists from Myanmar will be trained in Russia in nuclear
technology.

“Russian specialists have a large experience in building such centres in
12 countries,'' Atomstroi's experts said.

____________________________________
OPINION / OTHER

May 30, Mizzima News
Burma's generals may ditch roadmap to democracy - Larry Jagan

Burma's political future is at the crossroads. Burma's top generals are
pre-occupied trying to decide whether to continue with their roadmap to
democracy or whether to ditch it altogether. The country's top two
military rulers – Than Shwe and Maung Aye – are increasingly worried about
the future of the country, according to senior military sources in the new
capital, Naypyitaw. "They know what is happening in the country better
than anyone," said an officer close to the two leaders, and they are keen
to reduce the country's international isolation.

Than Shwe now fears that the roadmap which then Prime Minister, Khin Nyunt
announced at the end of August 2003, may not be in the interests of
preserving the military's power for decades to come, and ensuring that the
senior generals do not have to face Nuremberg-style trials in the event of
civilian government coming to power. Both he and Maung Aye are no longer
keen on the roadmap as they believe this was really Khin Nyunt's plan.

At the same time Burma's rulers are being quietly pressed by its closest
allies – China and India – to do something quickly to prove they are
serious about political reforms. In February Than Shwe told a visiting
senior Chinese official that the National Convention, which is currently
drawing up a new constitution, would finish its deliberations by the end
of the year in response to Beijing's concern to see some concrete results.
New Delhi too, on a number of occasions has urged Rangoon to produce some
results as soon as possible, according to Indian diplomatic sources.

But since then the two generals have begun to fear the national
reconciliation process as they have dubbed their plans for political
change, may not produce the stability and long-term security for the army
that they had hoped for. "There is a growing realisation that any
army-supported political party would not have the support of the people,"
according to a senior military source.

Over the last year the country's top generals have been seeking to test
the waters and see if their chances of electoral victory had improved
since 1990. Cabinet ministers have been instructed to carry out research
into this. When asked outright at a Cabinet meeting if Than Shwe's
quasi-political movement – the USDA (United Solidarity Development
Association) – could win a future election, the Planning Minister, Soe Tha
replied it stood no chance at all.

Since then the military junta has stepped up plans to make the USDA a
mass-based political party and improve its standing in the community. It
has also been the regime's chief weapon in its campaign to crush all
democratic opposition, especially Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for
Democracy. They have gone on the offensive and attacked opposition rallies
and protests, including the recent NLD anniversary celebrations of their
1990 election victory.

The regime continues to fear the popularity of the charismatic
pro-democracy leader who they continue to keep locked up so that she
cannot galvanize support against the army.

"Aung San Suu Kyi is irrelevant," Burma's information minister, General
Kyaw Hsan has frequently told visiting government leaders, foreign
politicians and journalists over the last two years. But if that was the
case, the regime would have little to fear from freeing her.

Aung San Suu Kyi remains a potent force in the country, despite the
junta's efforts to sideline her. "I believe she is still very much
relevant – the junta obviously does too or they would let her out," a
Rangoon-based diplomat told Mizzima on condition of anonymity.

"She is the only person who could pull together a broad array of forces,
and the only person, who in the long term, could broker a deal with the
military, which would see the generals able to bow out with the level of
security they would need," he said.

Now that the National Convention is nearing its end, Than Shwe and Maung
Aye are having second thoughts as they fear that the next steps in General
Khin Nyunt's roadmap -- a referendum on the draft constitution followed by
free and fair elections to choose a new civilian government, may back-fire
on them.

The National Convention though, which has been intermittently meeting to
draw up the new constitution for more than 14 years, is in a prolonged
recess, and unlikely to reconvene before November, according to Burmese
government sources.

"So far step one on the roadmap – drawing up the constitution has been
dragged out, giving the distinct impression that the Generals are simply
playing for time with no intentions of introducing a genuine multi-party
democracy," said the independent Burmese analyst, Win Min, based in Chiang
Mai.

The National Convention was originally expected to reconvene this month
but the next session was postponed when the country's top military rulers
began to have second thoughts about the roadmap, according to senior
military sources in the new capital, Naypyitaw. The invitations to the
thousand or so delegates for May 8 were never distributed. They are still
sitting in the foreign ministry, according to a reliable Burmese
government source in Rangoon.

In recent months there have been increased rumours in Rangoon that the
regime maybe about to try to restart talks with Aung San Suu Kyi and her
party as they explore ways of reducing the country's international
isolation and secure their power.

Than Shwe told a senior visiting Chinese official in February that because
he and Aung San Suu Kyi could not talk together they had been
communicating in writing, according to a Chinese government official. But
this assertion by the senior general cannot be confirmed – especially as
the Lady in question is being held in solitary confinement in her house on
University Avenue.

Western diplomats in Rangoon though remain extremely skeptical. "There
does not seem to be any percentage in it for the junta, since I believe
the regime is quite content with where things stand as they are. They have
China, Russia and India in its corner, massive amounts of money are about
to flow in from gas, and they have the opposition on their knees," one
diplomat said.

There is growing evidence that Burma's military leaders may be about to
abandon the roadmap altogether. Certainly the regime has begun to realise
that the process of drawing up the new constitution is not without its
fair share of problems. Already there is growing friction with the ethnic
groups, who have ceasefire agreements with Rangoon and are attending the
National Convention. "We've been told that if we do not agree to the
constitution they want – that is with very limited autonomy for the ethnic
minorities –they will simply push it through anyway," according to a
representative of the Kachins, who wanted to remain anonymous.

As part of the preparation for the planned referendum and elections, those
ceasefire groups would also be expected to surrender their weapons.
Initial attempts recently to get the Kachin and the largest ethnic rebel
army, the Wa, to lay down their arms were rejected out of hand, according
to ethnic sources.

"It's not clear where things are going on the roadmap now -- having pushed
it forward with renewed vigour, the regime now appears to have cold feet
about moving onto potentially trickier phases," a western diplomat based
in Rangoon told Mizzima.

"They seem paralysed. They are facing a number of important challenges,
but lack the will or capacity to do anything about them," he added.

While most observers agree that the roadmap is currently stalled, some
feel that this may be the prelude to a new era of political activity.
"It's all at an impasse as they look for new strategies – nothing has been
decided and I believe all options are still open," he added. "The regime
is now pre-occupied with other issues and nothing is likely to happen
soon."

The health of many of the senior generals is becoming a worrying factor
preying on the minds of the top men in the junta. A major cabinet
reshuffle appears imminent as Than Shwe begins to prepare for the future.
The ruling State Peace and Development Council is due to hold is quarterly
meeting soon, currently scheduled to start on June 10. This may be the
time that Than Shwe reveals what he has in mind for Burma's political
future.

Larry Jagan is a freelance journalist and Burma specialist based in
Bangkok. He was formerly the News and Current Affairs editor for Asia and
the Pacific at the BBC World Service.

____________________________________

May 30, The Economist
Aung San Suu Kyi is saintly, but is she right?

It is an anniversary that fewer people mark each year. Thirty or so brave
souls were set upon by state-sponsored thugs in Yangon (Rangoon, Myanmar’s
main city) this past weekend for even trying. Several hundred others would
have joined them at Yangon’s holiest pagoda, Shwedagon, but were blocked
by the police.

Seventeen years ago this week Myanmar (which was still called Burma back
then) held an election. To the befuddlement of the generals running the
place, the main opposition, the National League for Democracy (NLD), led
by Aung San Suu Kyi, who was already under house arrest, won by a
landslide. It took some 60% of the votes and 80% of the seats. The
generals simply ignored the result and pretended the election was for
something other than a parliament. Incredibly, within a few months, some
foreigners were taking their word for it.

The brave protesters at the Shwedagon pagoda wanted to pray for Miss Suu
Kyi. On May 27th her latest spell of internment was due to end. But two
days beforehand, with that bizarre fixation on legal form typical of
regimes that least understand the rule of law, the junta extended it.

Miss Suu Kyi has spent most of the past 20 years in detention. Even when
notionally free during that time, her movements and contacts have been
closely circumscribed. She dared not risk leaving the country, even to
visit her dying British husband. The generals would have cheered her on
her way and locked the door behind her.

For many years she was beyond criticism, her reputation gilded by memories
of the NLD’s thwarted electoral triumph, her 1991 Nobel peace prize, and
the interviews she gave after a temporary relaxation of her house arrest
in 1995. Elegant, persuasive, she charmed foreign journalists. We were, if
truth be told, a little in love with her.

Now her reputation is suffering a perhaps-inevitable backlash. Some are
saying that the failure of the democratic movement in Myanmar, and the
apparent hardening of the junta’s intransigence, is the product in part of
Miss Suu Kyi's inflexibility. Her support for an international boycott of
investment and tourism in Myanmar has been blamed for forcing the junta
into deals with non-Western countries—Myanmar’s partners in the
Association of South-East Asian Nations, and China, Russia and India.

Talking to The Economist in 1995 Miss Suu Kyi compared the junta to a
glass rod: its rigidity made it fragile. Now her critics make the same
charge against her: her unyielding stance jeopardises the hopes of the
democratic movement. She has become part of the problem, not the solution.

This is preposterous. She may indeed be misguided about the value of a
boycott, but how can we tell? There has never been a moment when the junta
has not had international options. Sitting on so many natural resources
and so little commercial nous, it is too enticing a partner for isolation
to work.

Nor does the accusation of inflexibility make any sense. How do we know
if, in negotiation, she might be prepared to forgo the 1990 election
result, accept a role for the NLD in a constitutional convention, drop her
demands for international sanctions, and so on? No serious negotiation has
ever been on offer.

If it meant only that activists no longer took Miss Suu Kyi’s
pronouncements as holy writ, her debunking might be no bad thing. But if
the effect is to shift sympathy towards the superstitious, thuggish,
vindictive, corrupt and bungling generals ruining Myanmar, things have
gone too far.

The grim truth is that if Miss Suu Kyi erred, it was not in refusing
negotiation on the terms open to her, but in believing that virtue and
reason could argue with tyranny. The generals will miss her when she is
gone.