BurmaNet News, October 1, 2007

[Editor]

October 1, 2007 Issue # 3308

INSIDE BURMA
AP: U.N. envoy meets Myanmar's detained opposition head, but not junta
leader as Yangon locks down
The Nation: Burmese junta said to have jailed 1,000 demonstrators
Irrawaddy: Rangoon quiet but raids on monasteries continue
Mizzima News: Japanese deputy FM in Rangoon to probe journalist death
Daily Mail: Burma: Thousands dead in massacre of the monks dumped in the
jungle
Irrawaddy: The hell hounds are at large
AP: Junta leaders only know force in dealing with critics
Mizzima News: Dead boy's family not allowed to conduct funeral rituals
Irrawaddy: The junta mobilizes its mouthpieces
Mizzima News: UN envoy visits border trade centre

ON THE BORDER
AFP: Hope for Myanmar exile on Chinese side of border
Irrawaddy: Mae Sot police arrest illegal migrant workers at demonstration
against junta

BUSINESS / TRADE
Irrawaddy: Poverty forces more Burmese to beg for food - Violet Cho

ASEAN
AP: ASEAN turns screws on Myannar as Japan mulls sanctions

REGIONAL
AFP: New Indian army chief calls Myanmar crackdown 'internal matter'
Mizzima News: Gujral, Fernandes condemn Burmese junta for brutal crackdown
AFP: Myanmar regime unlikely to change: Thai junta chief

INTERNATIONAL
Wall Street Journal Online: Myanmar Issue Is Unifier - Jay Solomon
Christian Science Monitor: West eyes China to influence Burma's junta
AP: Amnesty calls for arms embargo on Burma
DVB: Solidarity protests held around the world

OPINION / OTHER
Asia Times: Cracks emerge in Myanmar military unity - Larry Jagan
Wall Street Journal Online: Burmese Days - Nay Tin Myint, Mae Sot, Thailand
Washington Post: What we owe the Burmese - Fred Hiatt
New York Sun: Burma and Beijing (Editorial)

____________________________________
INSIDE BURMA

October 1, Associated Press
U.N. envoy meets Myanmar's detained opposition head, but not junta leader
as Yangon locks down

A U.N. envoy was unable to meet with Myanmar's top two junta leaders in
his effort to persuade them to ease a violent crackdown on anti-government
protesters, but was allowed a highly orchestrated session Sunday with
detained opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi.

The military government, meanwhile, flooded the main city of Yangon with
troops, swelling their numbers to about 20,000 by Sunday and ensuring that
almost all demonstrators would remain off the streets, a diplomat said.

Scores of people also were arrested overnight, further weakening the
flagging uprising against 45 years of military dictatorship. The protests
began Aug. 19 when the government sharply raised fuel prices, then
mushroomed into the junta's largest challenge in decades when Myanmar's
revered monks took a leading role.

One protest was reported Sunday in the western state of Rakhine where more
than 800 people marched in the town of Taunggok, shouting "Release all
political prisoners!" Police, soldiers and junta supporters blocked the
road, forcing them to disperse, a local resident said.

Ibrahim Gambari, the U.N.'s special envoy to Myanmar, was sent to the
country to try to persuade the notoriously unyielding military junta to
halt its crackdown. Soldiers have shot and killed protesters, ransacked
Buddhist monasteries, beaten monks and dissidents and arrested an
estimated 1,000 people in the last week alone.

But it was not clear what, if anything, Gambari could accomplish. The
junta has rebuffed scores of previous U.N. attempts at promoting democracy
and Gambari himself spoke in person to Suu Kyi nearly a year ago with
nothing to show for it.

Gambari began Sunday by meeting with the acting prime minister, the deputy
foreign minister and the ministers of information and culture in Myanmar's
new bunker-like capital of Naypyitaw, 240 miles north of Yangon. The
meeting, however, did not include the junta leader, Senior Gen. Than Shwe,
or his deputy, Gen. Maung Aye, the two key figures whom Gambari had been
pushing to speak with before his arrival.

He was then unexpectedly flown back to the main city of Yangon and whisked
to the State Guest House. Suu Kyi was briefly freed from house detention
and brought over to speak with him for more than an hour, according to
U.N. officials.

Suu Kyi, the 1991 Nobel Peace prize winner who has come to symbolize the
struggle for democracy in Myanmar, has spent nearly 12 of the last 18
years under house arrest.

Gambari flew back to remote Naypyitaw late Sunday in hopes of a possible
third meeting on Monday, an Asian diplomat said, speaking on condition of
anonymity.

U.N. officials would not comment on speculation that he was carrying a
letter from Suu Kyi to the junta but issued a statement that Gambari still
hoped to speak with the junta's top leaders before leaving Myanmar.

The junta did not comment on Sunday's talks.

"I view this is very positive," said a second Asian diplomat who requested
anonymity, citing protocol. "Hopefully, the shuttle diplomacy will bring
some positive solutions to the present crisis as to the process of
national reconciliation."

Suu Kyi's own party was not as optimistic. National League for Democracy
secretary U Lwin told Radio Free Asia that he expects little progress from
the talks because he sees Gambari as little more than a "facilitator" who
can bring messages back and forth but has no authority to reach a lasting
agreement.

Many see China, Myanmar's biggest trading partner, as the most likely
outside catalyst. But China, India and Russia, who have been competing for
Myanmar's bountiful oil and gas resources, do not seem prepared to go
beyond words in dealing with the junta.

Japan, Myanmar's largest aid donor, said it is mulling sanctions or other
actions to protest the junta's crackdown, which left a Japanese journalist
dead, chief Cabinet spokesman Nobutaka Machimura said Monday.

Britain's ambassador Mark Canning said Gambari should stay in Myanmar
"long enough to get under way a genuine process of national
reconciliation."

"He should be given as much time as that takes. That will require access
to senior levels of government as well as a range of political actors,"
Canning told The Associated Press.

The protests drew international attention after thousands of Buddhist
monks joined people in venting anger at decades of brutal military rule.
Some 70,000 people took to the streets before the protests were crushed
Wednesday and Thursday when government troops opened fire into the crowds
and raided monasteries to beat and arrest monks.

The government says 10 people were killed in last week's violence but
independent sources say the number is far higher.

Truckloads of armed soldiers on Sunday patrolled downtown Yangon near
recent protest sites and along the city's major streets. A nearby public
market and a Catholic church were also teeming with soldiers.

The atmosphere in the city was intimidating but not always menacing. One
witness said soldiers sat inside trucks and on sidewalks chatting, munched
snacks or walked around looking bored.

Still, a video shot Sunday by a dissident group, the Democratic Voice of
Burma, showed a monk, covered in bruises, floating face down in a Yangon
river. It was not clear how long the body had been there.

People suspected of organizing this week's rallies continue to be
arrested, a third Asian diplomat said on condition of anonymity, citing
protocol. The diplomat estimated the total number of arrests could be as
high as 1,000, including several prominent members of the NLD. Myanmar's
official press Monday said 11 people, including five young university
students, were arrested for taking parts in two separate demonstrations in
downtown Yangon Saturday.

Those joined an estimated 1,100 other political detainees already
languishing in Myanmar's jails.

On Sunday, Pope Benedict XVI joined world leaders in expressing serious
concern about the situation in Myanmar. About 1 percent of the country's
54 million people are Catholics.

"I am following with great trepidation the very serious events," the
pontiff said during an appearance at his summer residence near Rome. "I
want to express my spiritual closeness to the dear population in this
moment of the very painful trial it is going through."

The Catholic Church has ordered its clergy not to take part in
demonstrations or political activities in Myanmar. Worshippers at Yangon's
Catholic churches Sunday read posted bulletins from its hierarchy stating
that priests, brothers and nuns were not to become involved in the
demonstrations, but that lay Catholics could act as they saw fit.

____________________________________

October 1, The Nation
Burmese junta said to have jailed 1,000 demonstrators

Rights groups press UN to demand full accounting of dead and arrested

With protests quashed and many monasteries empty, fears are growing for
those who have disappeared into Burma's grim prisons in recent days -
rights groups say more than 1,000 people, including monks and students,
are missing.

"I hate to think where they might be, but we have gone by a number of
monasteries and they are empty. And it is frightening to think why that
is," US charge d'affaires in Rangoon, Shari Villarosa told Nation
Channel's Suthichai Yoon in a telephone interview yesterday.

Villarosa said she was hopeful of a meeting today between UN special envoy
Ibrahim Gambari and Senior General Than Shwe but added that more
international help was needed, especially from neighbouring Thailand.

"I think the Thai government should speak out critically about what's
happening. I think 
 they should reconsider business arrangements that
they have with the Burmese generals," she said.

Villarosa fell short of calling on Asean to kick Burma out of the regional
grouping but asked how Asean could benefit from having Burma as a member.

The UN's Gambari, who has been in Burma since Saturday, has finally got an
appointment to meet with Gen Than Shwe in the junta's remote, bunker-like
capital, Naypyidaw. Gambari is expected to return to Rangoon tomorrow to
catch a flight out of the country.

"I would hope that something is getting through to Than Shwe and the other
generals that violence does not address the underlying problem. There are
serious grievances," Villarosa said.

Security forces have launched overnight raids to pick up more monks,
civilians and members of the National League for Democracy (NLD) headed by
Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, herself under house arrest for most of
the past 18 years.

"We have received information about demonstrations in other cities and
disturbing reports - from a monk, an NLD member - of arrests taking place,
particularly in Manda-lay," Villarosa said.

"Most of these arrests happen in the middle of the night. And they
continue to go into monasteries around 2 o'clock in the morning," she
said.

Villarosa said the Burmese government admits that there were 10 deaths.
"But we suspect there are far more than that," she said.

The Thailand-based Assis-tance Association for Political Prisoners (AAPP),
which has for years kept a close watch on political detainees in Burma's
43 prisons, estimates up to 1,500 people were locked up last week.

"At least 85 protest leaders, over 1,000 monks, and between 300 and 400
students and activists were arrested," said AAPP joint secretary Bo Kyi,
adding that the detainees were subjected to harsh prison conditions.

The Buddhist monks, who were at the forefront of what has been dubbed the
"saffron revolution", were forcibly disrobed and "severely beaten, kicked
and insulted" by soldiers and militias, the group said in a statement.

Hong Kong-based organisation the Asian Human Rights Commission (AHRC) said
"at least 700 monks and 500 civilians are estimated to have been captured
and taken to unknown locations in the last week".

These detainees, as well as 150 people arrested after the protests began
in August, "must all be treated as disappeared, not arrested, until their
whereabouts and conditions are confirmed", the group said.

Diplomats in Rangoon are also trying to assess the true extent of last
week's carnage and the extent of the ongoing arrests. Many observers
believe the death toll may be far higher than 13 known killings.

Observers say many detainees have been taken to the city's notorious
Insein prison, the Government Technological Institute, the police
Battalion Number Seven compound, Kyaikkasan race track, and possibly other
locations.

"There are enough old and now unoccupied government buildings since the
move to [the new capital] Naypyidaw," said one foreign observer, referring
to the junta's sudden shift to a new capital 350km north of Rangoon in
late 2005.

Human Rights Watch monitor for Burma David Mathieson said the group was
still trying to find out "who was taken on what day and to where" but
added "it appears that this has been more well planned than last week's
events suggested".

"People were taken away during the demonstrations, people were arrested at
night, including in the monasteries, and people were arrested at the
weekend at smaller demonstrations and as security forces cleared up the
streets," he said.

Mathieson said "the onus of figuring where those people are and what
condition they are in is on the shoulders of [UN special envoy] Ibrahim
Gambari," who is due to meet junta leader Gen Than Shwe this morning.

"He must come out of the country with some account of where those people
are and what condition they are in," the HRW monitor said. He added that,
even at the best of times, Burma's prisons were sinister and overcrowded
places where "the conditions are horrendous, and torture and ill treatment
are commonplace".

____________________________________

October 1, Irrawaddy
Rangoon quiet but raids on monasteries continue - Yeni

Rangoon remained tense on Monday, with hundreds of heavily armed troops
and riot police deployed on the streets and sealing off the leading
monasteries.

At least 1,500 Buddhist monks, nuns and other protesters have been
arrested since taking to the streets in peaceful demonstrations two weeks
ago, and thousands of other monks are being prevented by security forces
from leaving their monasteries.

Raids on Rangoon’s monasteries continue. Troops from naval vessels stormed
monasteries bordering the Pazundaung River, in Tharkayta Township,
Rangoon, in the early hours of Sunday.

Local residents surrounded one monastery to protect the monks, and one
person was reportedly killed when troops opened fire. Eyewitnesses said at
least 100 monks were arrested and taken away.

Video film shown on Sunday by the Norway-based Democratic Voice of Burma
showed a monk, covered in bruises, floating face down in the river.

"The greatest tragedy is that the armed forces are beating, torturing,
shooting and killing the Buddhist monks, who marched peacefully and only
chanted the “Metta Sutta”[the Buddha’s words on loving kindness],” a
Rangoon-based senior journalist told The Irrawaddy.

"The armed forces may be controlling street demonstrations, but public
anger and sentiment are still at the highest level. The people regard the
action of the military government as totally unacceptable."

The huge security presence has a stranglehold on the country, preventing
any repetition of the demonstrations that brought the clampdown.

An Asian diplomat told the Associated Press that he estimated 20,000
troops had been deployed in Rangoon. Britain’s Ambassador in Rangoon, Mark
Canning, put the number at 15,000.

Security has also been beefed up in Mandalay. Key monasteries have been
sealed off, and military trucks carrying soldiers and members of the
pro-government Union Solidarity and Development Association and the
paramilitary group Swan Ah Shin are cruising city streets.

"The armed forces have surrounded several monasteries with barbed wire," a
Mandalay-based editor told The Irrawaddy by phone on Monday. "Monks have
been ordered not to receive food as alms. They are already refusing alms
offered by members of the military regime, so they are very short of
food.”

The Alliance of All Burmese Buddhist Monks has called on the Burmese
people to protest in their homes over the next three evenings by switching
off electricity and avoiding government TV programs.

"We urge the entire people of Burma to show solidarity with us by
participating in this peaceful movement," a monk named U Gambiya told the
BBC Burmese service on Sunday.

An Alliance spokesman said some leaders of the monks’ protests had gone
into hiding.

____________________________________

October 1, Associated Press
Dissident group says 138 killed in crackdown by Myanmar junta

Yangon, Myanmar - Myanmar's junta leader stalled a U.N. envoy for yet
another day Monday, delaying his chance to present international demands
for an end to the crackdown on the largest protests in two decades that
one dissident group says has killed more than 130 people.

A Norway-based dissident news organization estimated that 138 people were
killed - more than 10 times the government figure - and 6,000 detained.

After days of intimidation that snuffed out the public demonstrations led
by Buddhist monks, soldiers and riot police redeployed from Yangon's
center to the outskirts Monday, but were still checking cars and buses,
and monitoring the city by helicopter.

Traffic was light and most shops remained closed. Some monks were allowed
to leave monasteries to collect food donations, watched by soldiers
lounging under trees.

Ibrahim Gambari, the U.N.'s special envoy to Myanmar, was given an
appointment to meet with Senior Gen. Than Shwe on Tuesday in the junta's
remote bunker-like capital, Naypyitaw, an Asian diplomat said.

Instead of the meeting Monday that he had hoped for, Gambari was taken on
a government-sponsored trip to attend a seminar in the far northern Shan
state on European Union relations with Southeast Asia, said other
diplomats. The diplomats spoke on condition of anonymity, citing protocol.

Public anger, which ignited Aug. 19 after the government increased fuel
prices, turned into mass protests against 45 years of military
dictatorship when Buddhist monks joined in. Soldiers responded last week
by opening fire on unarmed demonstrators, killing at least 10 people by
the government's account.

"The people are angry but afraid - many are poor and struggling in life so
they don't join the protests anymore," Thet, a 30-year-old university
graduate who is now driving a taxi, said Monday.

A Norway-based dissident news organization, the Democratic Voice of Burma,
said pro-democracy activists estimate 138 people were killed.

"Our own estimate is about 6,000 people detained, not killed, but
detained," including about 2,400 monks, DVB chief editor Aye Chan Naing
said in Oslo.

He said they are being held in at least four places - the infamous Insein
Prison, a pharmaceutical factory, a technical institute and a disused race
course.

He said his reporters had spoken to one family whose son was wounded by
gunfire in Yangon, brought to a hospital on Sept. 28 and disappeared on
Sept. 30.

There was a clear sense that the anti-democracy protests had once again
failed in the face of the junta's overwhelming military might, which was
last used in 1988 to crush a much larger uprising.

"I think the protests are over because there is no hope pressing them,"
said a 68-year-old teacher.

In Yangon, trucks full of police and soldiers arrived in the afternoon.
Small vendors immediately packed up and left, while other stores hurriedly
closed their windows, fearing trouble.

Shwedagon and Sule pagodas, two flash points of the unrest, reopened, but
there were few visitors.

Another Asian diplomat said Monday all the arrested monks were defrocked -
stripped of their highly revered status and made to wear civilian clothes.
Some of them are likely to face long jail terms, the diplomat said, also
on condition of anonymity.

In Mandalay, Myanmar's second largest city, security forces arrested
dozens of university students who staged a street protest on Sunday, a
witness said.

Gambari is expected to return to Yangon on Tuesday to catch a flight out
of the country, the diplomats said.

The U.N. said Gambari, in the country since Saturday, "remains in Myanmar.
He looks forward to meeting Senior General Than Shwe and other relevant
interlocutors before the conclusion of his mission."

The junta has not commented on Gambari's mission. Since arriving on
Saturday, he has met with junior members of the junta in Naypyitaw and
pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi in Yangon.

Gambari's hour-long talk with Suu Kyi was unexpected - he did not know
before he arrived if he would be allowed to meet the 1991 Nobel Peace
prize winner who has come to symbolize the struggle for democracy in
Myanmar. She has spent nearly 12 of the last 18 years under house arrest.

Suu Kyi' National League for Democracy party was not optimistic Gambari
would yield any influence over the junta leaders.

The junta has never responded well to international pressure in the past
and has rebuffed U.N. efforts to bring about reconciliation with Suu Kyi.

But its desire for oil and gas investment, increased tourism and its
status as a member of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations means it
cannot follow a completely isolated path, as it has in the past.

"I do think a number of underlying dynamics have changed quite
fundamentally and make us more hopeful that something might happen," said
British Ambassador Mark Canning.

The military rulers have sought to limit news coming out of Myanmar, with
public Internet access restricted and mobile phone service sporadic for a
fourth day in a row. Soldiers have gone to hotels in search of foreign
journalists operating without permission.

____________________________________

October 1, Mizzima News
Japanese deputy FM in Rangoon to probe journalist death - Mungpi

Japanese Deputy Foreign Minister Mitoji Yabunaka, who is in Rangoon to
probe the death of a Japanese photo journalist, will hold talks with
Burmese junta, Japanese Foreign Ministry said.

Yabunaka left for Burma on Sunday to investigate the death of Kenji Nagai,
a photo journalist who was shot dead on Thursday during a crackdown on
protesters by security forces in downtown Rangoon.

"We are not sure of his schedule but he will meet Burmese officials," an
official at the Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs told Mizzima.

Kenji Nagai is the first foreigner known to have killed during last week's
brutal crackdown on protesters in Burma. The death of the 50-year old
photo journalist shocked not only people in Japan but the world over, as a
hazy video footage of a Burmese soldier ginning him down from close range,
circulates in the international media.

Before leaving for Burma, Minister Yabunaka told reporters at Narita
airport in Tokyo that he will seek a full account of the incident and
demand safety guarantees for Japanese nationals.

The Burmese junta, last week opened fire on protesters in Rangoon led by
Buddhist monks. Protests in Rangoon and parts of Burma, which began since
August 19, last week took a violent turn as protesters demanded a solution
to political problems in Burma.

The junta, which initially showed restraint, on September 26, had its
soldiers open fire on protesters. The state media announced 10 deaths but
diplomats and activists said it is far more than 10 and estimated that at
least 200 to have been killed so far.

"I want to tell them [the Burmese junta] to hold a dialogue with
pro-democracy forces and pave the way for democracy," he added.

Japan, one of the countries providing the biggest humanitarian assistance
to Burma, last week joined an international outcry over Burmese junta's
brutal crackdown on peaceful protesters and called on the regime to
exercise restraint.

____________________________________

October 1, Daily Mail
Burma: Thousands dead in massacre of the monks dumped in the jungle
- Marcus Oscarsson

Thousands of protesters are dead and the bodies of hundreds of executed
monks have been dumped in the jungle, a former intelligence officer for
Burma's ruling junta has revealed.

The most senior official to defect so far, Hla Win, said: "Many more
people have been killed in recent days than you've heard about. The bodies
can be counted in several thousand."

Mr Win, who spoke out as a Swedish diplomat predicted that the revolt has
failed, said he fled when he was ordered to take part in a massacre of
holy men. He has now reached the border with Thailand.

Meanwhile, the United Nations special envoy was in Burma's new capital
today seeking meetings with the ruling military junta.

Ibrahim Gambari met detained opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi in Rangoon
yesterday. But he has yet to meet the country's senior generals as he
attempts to halt violence against monks and pro-democracy activists.

It is anticipated the meeting will happen tomorrow.

Heavily-armed troops and police flooded the streets of Rangoon during Mr
Ibrahim's visit to prevent new protests.

Mr Gambari met some of the country's military leaders in Naypyidaw
yesterday and has returned there for further talks. But he did not meet
senior general Than Shwe or his deputy Maung Aye - and they have issued no
comment.

Reports from exiles along the frontier confirmed that hundreds of monks
had simply "disappeared" as 20,000 troops swarmed around Rangoon yesterday
to prevent further demonstrations by religious groups and civilians.

Word reaching dissidents hiding out on the border suggested that as well
as executions, some 2,000 monks are being held in the notorious Insein
Prison or in university rooms which have been turned into cells.

There were reports that many were savagely beaten at a sports ground on
the outskirts of Rangoon, where they were heard crying for help.

Others who had failed to escape disguised as civilians were locked in
their bloodstained temples.

There, troops abandoned religious beliefs, propped their rifles against
statues of Buddha and began cooking meals on stoves set up in shrines.

In stark contrast, the streets of Rangoon and Mandalay - centres of the
attempted saffron revolution last week - were virtually deserted.

A Swedish diplomat who visited Burma during the protests said last night
that in her opinion the revolution has failed.

Liselotte Agerlid, who is now in Thailand, said that the Burmese people
now face possibly decades of repression. "The Burma revolt is over," she
added.

"The military regime won and a new generation has been violently repressed
and violently denied democracy. The people in the street were young
people, monks and civilians who were not participating during the 1988
revolt.

"Now the military has cracked down the revolt, and the result may very
well be that the regime will enjoy another 20 years of silence, ruling by
fear."

Mrs Agerlid said Rangoon is heavily guarded by soldiers.

"There are extremely high numbers of soldiers in Rangoon's streets," she
added. "Anyone can see it is absolutely impossible for any demonstration
to gather, or for anyone to do anything.

"People are scared and the general assessment is that the fight is over.
We were informed from one of the largest embassies in Burma that 40 monks
in the Insein prison were beaten to death today and subsequently burned."

The diplomat also said that three monasteries were raided yesterday
afternoon and are now totally abandoned.

At his border hideout last night, 42-year-old Mr Win said he hopes to
cross into Thailand and seek asylum at the Norwegian Embassy.

The 42-year-old chief of military intelligence in Rangoon's northern
region, added: "I decided to desert when I was ordered to raid two
monasteries and force several hundred monks onto trucks.

"They were to be killed and their bodies dumped deep inside the jungle. I
refused to participate in this."

With his teenage son, he made his escape from Rangoon, leaving behind his
wife and two other sons.

He had no fears for their safety because his brother is a powerful general
who, he believes, will defend the family.

Mr Win's defection will raise a faint hope among tens of thousands of
Burmese who have fled to villages along the Thai border.

They will feel others in the army may follow him and turn on their ageing
leaders, Senior General Than Shwe and his deputy, Vice Senior General
Maung Aye.

____________________________________

October 01, Irrawaddy
The Hell Hounds are at Large - Aung Zaw

Rangoon is under siege and the crackdown on monks and activists has
intensified, continuing day and night. The bloodshed in Burma raises the
question: who was behind the violent crackdown and who ordered security
forces to shoot Buddhist monks and innocent people?

Everyone is pointing the finger of blame at Snr-Gen Than Shwe and
hardliners in the army. The commander in chief of the armed forces who
once led the psychological warfare department in the army is known to be a
secret mover.

Than Shwe is believed to be surrounded by hard-line army officers and
ministers, and over the past two years he has reshuffled his cabinet and
army, hauling his trusted people on board.

After the surprise purge of intelligence chief and prime minister Gen Khin
Nyunt in October 2004, military leaders held a belated quarterly meeting
in Naypyidaw, the country’s new capital, in 2006. At the meeting, Than
Shwe’s hands were seen to have been active in the reshuffle.

At that meeting, the regime leader created a Bureau of Special Operations
5 (the country had previously had four BSOs) and appointed Lt-Gen Myint
Swe to head the department.

Myint Swe, former head of Military Affairs Security, is known to be a Than
Shwe favorite, and his appointment indicated that the junta leader wanted
to pave the way for him to assume a high-ranking position in the army. BSO
5 controls the Rangoon division and Myint Swe’s appointment effectively
put the Rangoon regional commander under his wing.

Than Shwe also kept his trusted army generals in the war office. For
instance, Thura Shwe Mann, number three in the armed forces, is known to
be close to Than Shwe and is being groomed to take over as
commander-in-chief.

It was reported that during the quarterly meeting Than Shwe and his
deputy, Gen Maung Aye, army chief, had reached a compromise by appointing
their close associates to key positions.

For instance, Maj-Gen Myint Hlaing, formerly commander of Northeast
Command (Gen Maung Aye’s former close aide who instigated the downfall of
Gen Khin Nyunt) was promoted to Lt-Gen and appointed Chief of Staff, Air
Defense. That position had previously been held by Prime Minister Gen Soe
Win, who is now receiving medical treatment in Singapore.
Maj-Gen Ye Myint, formerly Commander of Eastern Command, was promoted to
Lt-Gen and appointed head of Military Affairs Security. He is also Gen
Maung Aye’s closest associate.

Than Shwe’s men took over the defense ministry. During the 2006 meeting,
Brig-Gen Tin Ngwe, a close associate of Gen Thura Shwe Mann, was appointed
Brigadier GS (General Staff). Thura Shwe Mann reportedly maintains good
relations with Maung Aye.

Than Shwe regularly holds meetings with Myint Swe, Industry Minister Aung
Thaung, Science and Technology Minister U Thaung, Home Affairs Minister
Maj Gen Maung Oo, and Information Minister Kyaw Hsan.

Than Shwe is also widely believed to have given a green light to attack
Aung San Suu Kyi and her convoy in Depayin in May 2003. Aung Thaung and U
Thaung were believed to have been behind the thuggish style attacks on
activists in August this year.

Observers believed that Maung Aye and his loyalists have been sidelined
and his influence may be on the wane. Some diplomatic sources said that
Maung Aye, former regional commander in Eastern Shan State, has been slow
in making any move against his boss. If he does, he is sure to fail and
will be purged.

Recently, Maung Aye also relinquished his chairmanship of the trade
council. It was unclear whether he was forced to give up the position.

Some officials believed that the Than Shwe and Maung Aye disagree over the
future role of the army in politics and in any reform of the armed forces.

Since 1996, Maung Aye has reportedly proposed injecting new blood into the
army with candidates from the Defense Services Academy, where he graduated
from Intake 1.

His plan met with resistance from Than Shwe’s camp, however. Maung Aye was
in charge of the defense ministry in the past, but he is now surrounded by
younger junior officers who were elevated by Than Shwe.

Than Shwe is from Officer Training School Intake 9 and was commander of
the Irrawaddy delta region in the 1980s.
The two men have served in the junta since 1988, first in the State Law
and Order Restoration Council, and then in the State Peace and Development
Council, when that replaced the SLORC in 1997.

The hands of those two men unleashed the hounds of hell in Rangoon and are
now stained by the blood spilt in the carnage on the streets of the former
capital and elsewhere in Burma.

____________________________________

October 1, Associated Press
Junta leaders only know force in dealing with critics - Michael Casey

Hunkered down in war rooms hundreds of miles from mass protests, the
aging, hard-line generals in Burma are known as a suspicious lot who view
the West with disdain and rely on browbeaten advisers and astrologers to
guide them.

Much like Burma's former kings, they see themselves as the only ones
capable of ruling, and their army as the only force that can transform the
country into a modern state.

Anyone questioning their 45 years of supremacy, whether a lone protester
or tens of thousands on the streets of Rangoon, is simply seen as a threat
and dealt with the same brute force.

"They are moving to put down what they consider a threat to the nation,"
said Mary Callahan, a Burma expert at the University of Washington. "I
think these senior officers really believe they have done right by their
country and the protesters are threatening the stability of the country
and threatening what they consider the progress they brought."

The demonstrations are the stiffest challenge to the ruling junta in two
decades, a crisis that began August 19 with protests over a fuel price
hike then expanded dramatically about two weeks ago when Buddhist monks
joined the protests.

Since Wednesday, soldiers and riot police have clubbed, shot and detained
demonstrators in Rangoon. At least 10 people have been killed, dozens
injured and hundreds detained, including Buddhist monks whose monasteries
were shot up and destroyed in overnight raids by security forces.

The heavy-handed response, analysts said, was not surprising given the
long history of military leaders snuffing out all dissent since the
country's independence in 1948. For decades, they have also waged a brutal
war against ethnic groups in which soldiers have razed villages, raped
women and killed innocent civilians—atrocities that continue to this day.

Since the 1980s, they have taken aim at pro-democracy activists, detaining
and torturing thousands of political prisoners including pro-democracy
leader Aung San Suu Kyi, who has been under house arrest for almost 12 of
the past 18 years.

When hundreds of thousands of citizens took to the streets peacefully in
1988, the military opened fire, killing as many as 3,000.

The generals' problem, said David Mathieson, a consultant with Human
Rights Watch in Thailand, is that "They don't listen to their own
population. They honestly think they are the only ones capable of doing
this."

Snr-Gen Than Shwe, a career military officer who cut his teeth fighting
ethnic insurgencies, embodies the regime he heads. In the top leadership
post since 1992, he is regularly on the front pages of state media in his
drab military uniform.

"He commands loyalty. He seems like the archetypal soldier," said Razali
Ismail, a former UN special envoy to Burma who has met Than Shwe numerous
times. "He believes himself to be very much a patriot, a nationalist. He
speaks often about the sacrifices that he and his generation and his
soldiers have made."

Described by Western diplomats who have met him as humorless, stiff and
xenophobic, Than Shwe rarely says anything in public except at the annual
Armed Forces Day—an ostentatious display featuring as many as 15,000
troops and the latest military hardware from China, India and Russia.

This year, the 74-year-old general used the occasion to warn that the
nation still faces danger from "powerful countries" that are trying to
weaken the military.

"They will try to sow the seeds of discord and dissension not only among
national races but also within each particular ethnic group in various
spheres such as religion, ideologies, social classes," he said.

In recent years, as his health has declined, Than Shwe's behavior has
become increasingly bizarre, diplomats and analyst said. Almost overnight,
he moved the capital in 2005 to an isolated jungle outpost 250 miles north
of Rangoon and named it Naypyidaw or "Royal City."

To mark his first Armed Forces Day there, he built gigantic statues of
former Burmese kings, a Western diplomat recalled, speaking on condition
of anonymity. "He has regal pretensions."

These days, Thang Shwe's declining health has forced him to remain mostly
in Naypyidaw where he depends on cowed junior officers and even his
astrologer for guidance, Burma analyst Larry Jagan and others said.

One of his few trips outside the capital was to his daughter's wedding
last year in Ranoon, which angered many Burmese because it cost US
$300,000 and the couple received wedding gifts worth US $50 million,
according to Irrawaddy, a respected online magazine covering Burmese
affairs.

A video of the wedding can be found on YouTube.

The junta claims credit for modernizing Burma. It has doubled the size of
the army to 400,000 and opened the isolated, impoverished country of 54
million people to foreign investment. It also ended fighting with several
ethnic groups and built scores of new roads, bridges, pagodas and schools.

But its aggressive push to develop the country was not matched by progress
in the political arena. Fearful of another 1988 uprising, it responded to
its loss of the 1990 elections by refusing to hand over power and
imprisoning Suu Kyi.

History suggests the military will stay united, despite unconfirmed rumors
in Rangoon of a few soldiers refusing to fire on crowds last week or
turning on one another. Soldiers have plenty of incentives to remain
loyal—they and their families get better food, housing, health care and
other benefits than ordinary Burmese.

"The military leadership may have disagreements and personality conflicts
but those have never erupted into anything politically significant because
they realized they are all better off sticking together," Callahan said.

____________________________________

October 1, Mizzima News
Dead boy's family not allowed to conduct funeral rituals - Phanida

The family of a Burmese boy, who was killed during the junta's crackdown
on protesters last week, has been not been allowed to organize funeral
Swan offerings to monks, according to an opposition party youth leader.

Maung Thet Paing Soe (16), who participated in the recent protests, was
shot on September 27. He along with friends on Thursday marched in protest
near the Tarmwe old market when a bullet hit him near his ear.

He died soon after being hit, said Nyi Nyi Aung a youth leader of the
Township National League for Democracy.

Thet Paing Soe, who is also a member of the NLD, held a T-shirt with the
words "Free Aung San Suu Kyi" on that eventful day.

Families after bribing 8000 kyat to U Win Naing Oo, chairman of the
Dawpone Township Union Solidarity and Development Association (USDA), were
allowed to see the body of Thet Paing Soe, which was kept in a funeral
parlour in Htein Pin. Family members said they also saw 11 bodies there.
The deaths occurred the same day.

However, the Dawpone Town USDA chairman allowed only four family members
to see the body and restricted them from conducting any ritual such as
offering of Swan to monks, which is a Buddhist practice for the dead.

____________________________________

October 1, Mizzima News
UN envoy visits border trade centre

Chiang Mai: The UN envoy to Burma, Ibraham Gambari made an unscheduled
visit to a Burmese border trade centre close to China border today,
sources said.

Mr. Gambari along with high-ranking military officers arrived at the 105
miles border trade centre point this morning, seven miles southwest of
Muse by a military helicopter from Laisho in northern Shan State.

The special flight carrying Mr. Gambari landed in Laisho. He then
proceeded to 105 miles. He is expected to return to Laisho tonight and
will attend a pro-junta rally in the largest city of northern Shan State
tomorrow, the sources said.

However, the UN information centre did not mention the trip in its press
release yesterday. All it said was that the envoy is hoping to meet the
junta supremo Senior General Than Shwe before he concludes the mission to
end military rule in Burma which is continuing since 1962 in one form or
another.

"He is now like a Shin Laung. The junta put him on their shoulders and are
showing their public rally and so-called development projects," said Sein
Kyi, an editor of the Shan Herald Agency for News based in Chiang Mai,
Thailand.

Shin Laung means a would-be-novice. Traditionally Buddhists make a
ceremonial round of visits with the novice-to-be prominently ensconced in
the procession.

The junta immediately began organizing a public meeting to support its
drafted constitution and to condemn the recent anti-regime monk-led
demonstrations in many cities in Burma including Rangoon and Mandalay.

The UN envoy had met low-level junta officials and the detained opposition
leader Aung San Suu Kyi in his third trip to country.

The authorities ordered sending delegates ranging from civil servants,
junta sponsored organizations and local people for a series of rallies in
Shan State. "Almost every townships in north Shan State are being told to
send participants," Sein Kyi said.

____________________________________
ON THE BORDER

October 1, Agence France Presse
Hope for Myanmar exile on Chinese side of border - Benjamin Morgan

Amid the noise and hustle of traders and tourists, the Ruili gemstone
market in China's southwest would seem an unlikely place to lead a
movement for democracy in Myanmar.

But for one political exile his dreams of bringing about a change to the
brutal military regime that has ruled Myanmar for the last 45 years begins
here, a stone's throw from the remote mountains of his homeland.

In the 20 years since he fled Myanmar to Yunnan province, the man, a
prominent leader of the country's Muslim minority, has kept his hopes for
democracy in the Southeast Asian nation alive.

The exiled leader, who due to the sensitivity of the subject asked his
name not be used, said that while his power remains severely curtailed,
his informal links with Chinese officials lend hope that one day the
regime will end.

Those hopes were raised last week when up to 100,000 people took to the
streets in Yangon, Myanmar's biggest city, to protest the repressive
government whose economic management has impoverished his nation.

But China's refusal to condemn the regime in Myanmar, formerly known as
Burma, for the violent response to the demonstrations has disappointed
him.

"If China wanted to change its policies to Burma, it would be easy work,"
he said in an interview with AFP held in a makeshift office filled with
semi-precious gems that he trades for a living.

"Whether it's wrong or right China's interest are always where it can earn
money, but it never differentiates between right and wrong."

China is one of the Myanmar junta's most important political, economic and
military allies, and has repeatedly insisted it does not interfere in its
neighbours internal affairs.

Nevertheless, that China has tolerated his presence as well as other
Myanmar government opposition groups working inside its borders,
maintaining a quiet dialogue with them, illustrates a pragmatic approach
from Beijing.

"Chinese authorities want to know what Burmese people think," said the
45-year-old Muslim leader, who is well known within Myanmar opposition
circles.

When China and Russia vetoed a United Nations Security Council resolution
in January this year that urged democratic reforms in the military-ruled
nation, Chinese officials were quick to seek reaction from Myanmar's
opposition groups.

The Muslim leader was not afraid to mince his words.

"We thought that you would work in our favour, but you have not done this.
People are unsatisfied with the use of your veto in the UN," he said he
told Chinese officials.

Among the groups that Beijing retains informal contacts with are the
leading opposition party, the National League for Democracy, as well armed
military groups in northern Myanmar, such as the Kachin Independence Army,
exiles said.

Nyo Myint, a member of the National League for Democracy, said that his
group had maintained informal links with China since 2004, even going as
far as to establish a political think tank in Yunnan province.

"It is more on the political level than on the government level," Nyo
Myint said by telephone from Thailand. "It's an effective way to let them
know what we need."

These contacts are seen as a hedge against the risk of a future regime
change in Myanmar, even if Beijing has made it clear that it does not want
these groups agitating against the government it helps to prop up.

"You can help your people, we don't care, but we do not want you
conspiring against the current Burmese government," the Muslim leader
recalled officials warning him on various occasions.

Nevertheless the Myanmar opposition groups appear to understand that it is
vital to maintain their engagement with China, which analysts have told
AFP would work with whoever was in power -- whether they be dictators or
democratic.

"We keep saying to China that stability in Burma can take place with a
stable democratic government," said Soe Aung, spokesman of the National
Council of the Union of Burma, an umbrella democracy group.

"I think they are keeping that in mind."

____________________________________

October 1, Irrawaddy
Mae Sot police arrest illegal migrant workers at demonstration against
junta - Sai Silp

Thai authorities arrested illegal migrant workers in Mae Sot District
before a brief protest demonstration against the Burmese junta by migrant
workers on Sunday.

At the same time, the Bangkok police chief says he will not obstruct such
demonstrations if they follow Thai law.

Gov Chumporn Ponrak of Tak Province ordered local authorities in Mae Sot
District's border with Myawaddy Township in Burma to restrict the movement
of Burmese migrant workers in the area, over fears anti-junta protests may
affect the bilateral relationship.

“Provincial officials have contacted employers to tell Burmese worker to
respect Thai law, and officials only allow peaceful gatherings such as
praying in temples,” Chumporn told the INN News Web site.

The concern followed a brief anti-junta protest on Sunday by about 200
migrant workers in Mae Sot, where there are more than 50,000 Burmese
laborers currently working in several industries. Many migrants are legal
workers, while others are without documents.

A source told The Irrawaddy that almost all of the people at the
demonstration were Burmese workers who wanted to express their concerns
about the bloodshed in Burma.

“They were brave to come out together because some of them have no working
documents,” said the source.

Pol Lt Col Man Ratanapratheep, the deputy police chief of Mae Sot, said
some Burmese illegal migrants who were passing out leaflets were arrested
before the demonstration and would be sent back to Burma, according to INN
News.

On Monday, Police Chief Pol Gen Seripisut Temiyawet said authorities will
not obstruct migrant workers demonstrations against the junta in Bangkok.

“Every group of people can express their opinions without interference.
But authorities will see that the demonstrations follow Thai law,” he
said.

Meanwhile, representatives from 40 Sangha and Buddhist organizations have
posted a letter to the Burmese Embassy in Bangkok urging the military
government to stop violence against monks and demonstrators. The letter
was mailed in front of the embassy.

Thai and international Buddhist monks will hold religious ceremonies for
peace in Burma at Sanam Laung park in Bangkok on Sunday.

____________________________________
BUSINESS / TRADE

October 1, Irrawaddy
Poverty forces more Burmese to beg for food - Violet Cho

The Burmese military regime's restriction on the flow of food donations
from UN agencies to vulnerable people in Sittwe and Mandalay will bring a
host of more serious problems for the people in the area, says a Sittwe
resident.

In recent weeks, the regime's brutal crackdown on pro-democracy protesters
greatly hampered the World Food Program's distribution of food to 500,000
vulnerable people in different areas of Burma.

Burmese authorities stopped all movement of food commodities out of
Mandalay and the unrest has also slowed down food delivery efforts in
Sittwe, 560 km west of Rangoon, the WFP said. The port city was one of the
centers of protests, which began on August 19 following a hike in fuel
prices.

Recently, the Burmese authorities have allowed some emergency food
distribution to flow out of Mandalay, but WFP still lacks access to
Sittwe.

WFP tries to serve the vulnerable people in the country, mainly young
children, HIV/AIDS patients and tuberculosis sufferers.

A Sittwe resident who requested anonymity told The Irrawaddy that most of
the people in both cities do not have jobs with real income.

“People can not even afford to buy rotten fish to cook for their meal,” he
said.

The economic collapse has brought more desperate people on to the streets
begging for food in Sittwe, he said.

Arakan State also has more beggars and local residents say the number will
increase if the authorities continue to ban international aid agencies.

According to the Alternative Asean Network on Burma, 60 percent of
Rohingya children in northern Arakan State suffer from chronic
malnutrition.

A resident of Sittwe, Ma Raywadi, said poverty was a major factor that led
people to join protests against the military government.

In addition to poverty, healthcare in Burma is practically non-existent.
Malaria is the country's leading cause of illness and death.

The World Health Organization ranks Burma's healthcare system as the
world's second worst after Sierra Leone.

____________________________________
ASEAN

October 1, Associated Press
ASEAN turns screws on Myannar as Japan mulls sanctions - Vijay Joshi

Southeast Asian nations turned the screws on Myanmar's junta, saying they
were revolted by its ruthless suppression of a pro-democracy uprising,
while Japan mulled sanctions Monday.

New Zealand Prime Minister Helen Clark also said the U.N. must decide
whether to tighten economic sanctions on Myanmar, and Pope Benedict XVI
added his voice to calls for Myanmar's generals to peacefully end their
crackdown on protesters.

The strongest condemnation came from the Association of Southeast Asian
Nations, a 10-nation bloc that includes Myanmar. Its exasperation and
concerns were conveyed directly in a letter by Singapore's prime minister,
the current chairman of the bloc, to the junta leader, Senior Gen. Than
Shwe.

"We are most disturbed by reports of the violent means that the
authorities in Myanmar have deployed against the demonstrators, which have
resulted in injuries and deaths," Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong wrote in
the letter dated Sept. 29. It was released to the media Monday.

"The videos and photographs of what is happening on the streets of Yangon
and other cities in Myanmar have evoked the revulsion of people throughout
Southeast Asia and all over the world," he wrote.

Troops in Myanmar opened fire on demonstrators on Thursday to end weeks of
almost daily street protests against 45 years of military rule. The
government says 10 people were killed in the crackdown but dissident
groups say the toll could be as high as 200. Among those killed was
Japanese journalist Kenji Nagai, 50.

In a bid to end the crisis, the United Nations has sent its special envoy,
Ibrahim Gambari, to Myanmar. He met Sunday with some junta officials and
pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi. He is hoping to meet Than Shwe on
Monday.

Lee, the Singapore leader, said ASEAN leaders fully support Gambari's
mission. "He has gone to Myanmar to help all parties involved find a
peaceful resolution," Lee wrote.

"I would like to emphasize the importance which the ASEAN countries, and
indeed the whole international community, attach to Mr. Gambari's
mission," he wrote.

Lee also warned that the unfolding confrontation will have "serious
implications not just for Myanmar itself, but also for ASEAN and the whole
region." ASEAN has already called for Suu Kyi and other political
prisoners to be freed.

In Tokyo, chief Cabinet spokesman Nobutaka Machbimura said Japan is
considering sanctions to protest the junta's crackdown.

"As we have repeatedly mentioned, Japan is strongly concerned about
Myanmar's democratization and human rights conditions and we will continue
to raise the issue," he told reporters.

Japan also lodged a protest over Nagai's killing when Foreign Minister
Masahiko Komura met with his Myanmar counterpart Nyan Win at U.N.
headquarters in New York. Nyan Win is reported to have said he was
"extremely sorry."

In Wellington, New Zealand Prime Minister Clark rejected a call by the
opposition for the government to unilaterally impose impose sanctions
against Myanmar. She said New Zealand would instead follow the U.N.'s
lead.

She also rejected calls for New Zealand to suspend trade talks with ASEAN.
"I don't think it is fair to the rest of ASEAN. I think ASEAN is deeply
embarrassed by Burma's behavior," she said.

Foreign Minister Winston Peters said New Zealand exports to Myanmar were
small and mainly consisted of milk products.

On Sunday, the pope said he was "following with great trepidation the very
serious events" in Myanmar. He said he "strongly hoped that a peaceful
solution can be found for the good of the country."

____________________________________
REGIONAL

October 1, Agence France Presse
New Indian army chief calls Myanmar crackdown 'internal matter' -
Elizabeth Roche

India's new army chief on Monday called a bloody crackdown by Myanmar's
military junta against pro-democracy protests an "internal matter."

India's army, which is battling numerous insurgencies in the remote
northeast bordering Myanmar, favours a "good relationship" with the
military junta, said army chief Deepak Kapoor, who took charge on Sunday.

"We have a good relationship going with Myanmar and I am sure we will try
and maintain that," Kapoor told reporters in New Delhi, adding the turmoil
in Myanmar was "an internal matter."

The statement came a week after the United States tightened sanctions on
Myanmar's military rulers and urged countries like China and India to do
more to help end the crackdown on anti-government demonstrators.

New Delhi has been criticised for its low-key reaction to the
authoritarian regime's brutal suppression of the month-long protests.

At least 13 people were killed last week during protests led by the highly
influential Buddhist monks.

Meanwhile, an Indian opposition-led protest in New Delhi urged the
government to "raise its voice" in support of the pro-democracy movement.

"All the countries are asking us why India is not saying or doing
anything. We demand that the government stand up and speak (for democracy)
with courage," said former defence minister George Fernandes.

He was flanked by activists waving placards reading "India, speak up for
Burma!" (Myanmar's former name) and "Attacks on monks are an attack on
humanity."

Others chanted "Long live Aung San Suu Kyi," carrying photographs of the
detained democracy icon.

Fernandes was joined by refugees from Myanmar, swelling the protesters'
numbers to about 450, according to the police. There are around 2,000
refugees from the country in New Delhi.

India last week expressed "concern" and urged dialogue to resolve
differences between the junta and the pro-democracy protesters. It also
called for accelerating the process of "broad-based national
reconciliation and political reform."

But analysts say India is walking a diplomatic tightrope, juggling energy
and strategic concerns with a commitment to democracy.

India, which rolled out the red carpet for military strongman Than Shwe in
a 2004 visit, was until the mid-1990s a staunch supporter of Suu Kyi.

New Delhi kept the military junta at arms length after the 1988 crackdown
on democracy protests, but changed track when it decided its security
interests in the northeast were in jeopardy.

Since India began engaging the generals, there has been cooperation
between Indian and Myanmar's security forces in flushing out the
northeastern rebels.

Fali S. Nariman, an Indian constitutional expert at the protest,
criticised what he described as "security achieved through suppression of
human rights."

"When human rights of a people are involved you cannot dismiss it as an
internal matter... Aung San Suu Kyi has become a legend. She has become a
second (Nelson) Mandela," he said, referring to the South African freedom
leader.

Besides security, India is also vying with China and other Asian countries
for a share of Myanmar's vast energy resources -- triggering accusations
that it is weakening US and European economic sanctions.

____________________________________

October 1, Mizzima News
Gujral, Fernandes condemn Burmese junta for brutal crackdown

Former Indian Prime Minister I.K Gujral and former Defense Minister and
Member of Parliament George Fernandes today joined over 1000 Indians and
Burmese activists in a protest rally denouncing the Burmese junta for its
brutal crackdown on peaceful protesters in Burma.

Speaking to the protesters in New Delhi, former Indian Prime Minister
called on India to immediately intervene in Burma's political crisis and
promote democracy in the Southeast Asian nation.

George Fernandes a strong supporter of Burma's democracy movement, also
condemned India for its silence over the ongoing protests and brutal
crackdown by the ruling junta.

The protesters, which initially set out in two groups, joined at the heart
of Delhi near Jantar Mantar park, and jointly held the demonstration for
nearly two hours.

Attended by over 300 Indian supporters, the protest is so far the biggest
in the Indian capital in recent days that joins a worldwide condemnation
against the Burmese military junta's brutal crackdown on Monks and
civilians.

Meanwhile, the situation in Rangoon remained calm with several soldiers
and security forces posted in major road junctions and street corners. The
heart of the city, Sule Pagoda, remained cordon-off with barb wired
barricades and soldiers standing as guards.

The junta on September 26 began opening fire on Monks-led protestors, who
have been agitating since August 19, and killed several protestors
including a Japanese photo journalist, Kenji Nagai.

The Burmese state media announced that 10 people have been killed during
the crackdown, but activists said the number is far larger and estimates
at least 200 deaths.

India, which had the history of being the first country to have voiced
concern in Burma's last uprising in 1988 when the military brutally
crackdown on protestors, has remained silent and issued only a carefully
crafted words of statement.

____________________________________

October 1, Agence France Presse
Myanmar regime unlikely to change: Thai junta chief

Myanmar's military regime is unlikey to reform anytime soon, Thailand's
junta chief said Monday, amid global outrage over a crackdown on
pro-democracy protests in Yangon.

"The military rulers have their own stance which is unlikely to change.
Any pressure to let democracy take place in Myanmar is difficult," said
General Sonthi Boonyaratglin in an interview with a local TV station.

"Myanmar has developed its own military regime for a long time to protect
its national interests," said Sonthi, who last year led a bloodless coup
in Thailand that ousted elected premier Thaksin Shinawatra.

Neighbouring Myanmar has sparked global outrage over its clampdown on
anti-junta demonstrations last week that killed at least 13 people,
including a Japanese journalist, and jailed hundreds.

Thai Defence Minister Boonrawd Somtas also told AFP that the current
protests against Myanmar's junta were unlikely to bring any political
change to the country run by the military since 1962.

"The ongoing anti-junta movements would start to ease and they are
unlikely to lead any change in Myanmar," he said.

"Such changes would not happen unless China, India and Russia exert
serious pressure" on the junta, the minister said.

China, Myanmar's staunchest ally and a main trading partner, has always
refused to become involved in the "internal affairs" of the Southeast
Asian nation, formerly known as Burma.

Despite global outrage over Myanmar's crackdown, China has so far refused
to condemn the junta's heavy-handed treatment.

The anti-junta protests erupted on August 19 in Yangon after a massive
hike in fuel prices, but escalated two weeks ago with the emergence of the
Buddhist monks on the front line and drew up to 100,000 people onto the
streets last week.

____________________________________
INTERNATIONAL

October 1, Wall Street Journal Online
Myanmar Issue Is Unifier - Jay Solomon

Myanmar's democracy movement has emerged in a political environment
polarized by the Iraq war as a rare unifying cause, bringing together
Democrats and Republicans and groups as varied as Hollywood stars and
evangelical Christians.

But a number of foreign diplomats and lobbyists have voiced concerns that
the White House, buoyed by nonpartisan support, could overreach in its
drive to defend Myanmar's democracy activists and hurt its cause.

In recent days, as Myanmar's military junta forcibly cracked down on
street protests, comedian Jim Carrey and first lady Laura Bush emerged as
leading voices advocating an international response. Many human-rights
activists are pledging to intensify bipartisan cooperation as the push
increases to punish Myanmar's generals and their financial backers outside
the Southeast Asian nation formerly known as Burma.
[Map]

"Burma is a place where the line between good and evil is absolutely
clear," said Tom Malinowski of Human Rights Watch, an advocacy group, in
Washington. "It's one of those issues were there's not a partisan divide."

Over the weekend, Myanmar's military junta offered no signs that it would
heed the international community's call for it to engage in a dialogue
with the opposition. The junta's crackdown and curfew left the capital of
Yangon's streets largely empty. And the United Nations special envoy to
Myanmar, Ibrahim Gambari, failed in his attempt so far to meet with the
junta's leader, Gen. Than Shwe.

Mr. Gambari did meet with the opposition leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, and a
number of the junta's other top generals. Mr. Gambari "looks forward to
meeting Senior Gen. Than Shwe...before the conclusion of his mission," the
U.N. said in a statement.

The aggressive American response to the Myanmar crisis isn't sitting well
with everyone in Washington, however, and it isn't certain that the kind
of economic sanctions being discussed would work.

One area critics point to is the White House's talk in recent days that it
may force U.S. energy company Chevron Corp. to divest itself of its stake
in a Myanmar energy project. Chevron's Yadana gas pipeline serves as a
major source of hard currency for the Myanmar junta, and human-rights
activists charge it has contributed to human-rights abuses inside the
country, a claim Chevron denies.

Forcing Chevron to sell might not necessarily work in the democracy
activists' favor, said one industry official working with Chevron. Any
sale of the company's stake likely will bring profits to Myanmar's junta,
the official said, while allowing a country like China to take it over.

"You wonder if the White House is going to think any of this through," the
official said. "Or are they going to be cowboys" in an effort to support
the Burmese?

A senior Bush administration official said no decision has yet been made
on Chevron's Myanmar project.

After years of debate over the White House's policies in the Middle East,
senior Bush administration officials are quietly voicing relief that a
foreign-policy initiative is receiving such uniform support on the left
and right in the U.S.

President Bush's decision last week to impose financial sanctions on
Myanmar's leading generals was lauded by liberals and conservatives. White
House strategists said they are crafting other tools to pressure Myanmar's
military and its supporters in China, Southeast Asia and the corporate
world. They said they are working to freeze out Myanmar's ruling elite
from the global banking system and to dry up outside investment in the
country's oil and gas sector.

Still, a number of Asian diplomats say they are concerned about how a new
U.S. sanctions regime might play out in their region. They say that for
any actions to work, they must be tightly focused on Myanmar's elite and
coordinated closely with the countries with the most influence,
particularly China, India and Russia. Otherwise they could only make
matters worse for Myanmar's masses.

"Myanmar is already one of the poorest countries.... If sanctions are very
carefully and surgically applied, it might have some effect.... The
negative effect might be bigger," said South Korea's foreign minister,
Song Min Soon, in an interview. He added that if the sanctions are poorly
implemented, it could give Myanmar's rulers an "excuse" to repress its
people more.

An unlikely stalwart behind Washington's emerging policy on Myanmar has
been Mrs. Bush. In her nearly seven years in the White House, the first
lady has rarely defined herself as an outspoken champion of foreign-policy
issues. But the 60-year-old Mrs. Bush has taken an aggressive position on
Myanmar, urging the U.N. to pressure Myanmar's junta to enact political
reforms and regularly meet with Burmese dissidents and political
activists. Last week, she took to the airwaves, arguing in nearly
religious terms it was the world's responsibility to defend those fighting
Myanmar's military junta. "I'm also obviously very concerned for the
safety of the protesters and the people of Burma," she said in an
interview on Voice of America. "I want them to know we're praying for
them."

____________________________________

October 1, Christian Science Monitor
West eyes China to influence Burma's junta - Simon Montlake

Having violently suppressed last week's monk-led protests, Burma's
military rulers are now trying to deflect international condemnation and
calls for reform. How far they succeed in resisting while keeping a lid on
further unrest could hinge on the stance of influential countries in Asia.

First among them, say Western and Asian diplomats, is China, a major
military and economic ally. India and countries in Southeast Asia, which
have tried to coax Burma out of isolation, could also exert some leverage.
By contrast, the US and other Western powers largely shun the regime,
leaving them with few diplomatic tools.

But hopes that China will arm-twist Burma's generals into making
concessions to defuse the crisis are probably wishful thinking and run
counter to Chinese political and business interests, say analysts.

Harder to gauge, say analysts, is how far the writ of such allies extends
in Burma. "China has very little influence. It is stuck with an advisory
role. The basis of Burma's policy has been to shut itself off," says
William Overholt, head of RAND Corp.'s Asia-Pacific research center.

A broader question, with ramifications for dealings with Sudan, Zimbabwe
and other regimes, is whether China will abandon its policy of
noninterference and play a role closer to that of Western powers, even if
it ultimately opts for engagement over opprobrium.

China has begun to adopt a critical tone on Burma, saying it hoped the
Burmese government could "properly deal with its domestic social
conflicts." Premier Wen Jiabao called Sunday on Burma to seek a peaceful
solution. Breaking with protocol, the Association of Southeast Asian
Nations (ASEAN) last week roundly condemned Burma, a member state, as did
Japan, which said it was suspending major aid.

But in Beijing's eyes, propping up an unpopular regime on its borders may
be preferable to seeing it collapse and risk being shut out by an
unfriendly new government. "If the military government does not survive, a
pro-Western regime will be established that would inevitably turn from
China to the West for political and economic support," says Du Jifeng, a
Burma analyst at the China Academy for Social Sciences.

The timing is awkward for Beijing. The Communist Party is gearing up for a
crucial congress and wants a united front on policy choices, not
dissension over Burma. The sight of peaceful protesters confronting an
authoritarian state also has uncomfortable parallels, says Russell Moses,
an analyst in Beijing. "Events in Burma raise the specter of peaceful
political change in China, and that makes a lot of officials in Beijing
nervous," he says.

Saturday, UN special envoy Ibrahim Gambari arrived in Burma and flew to
meet the country's leaders in their new, purpose-built capital north of
Rangoon, where streets that were thronged by tens of thousands of
red-robed monks and civilians were reported to be eerily silent, as troops
blocked roads and patroled.

Gambari, who also met detained opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, was
dispatched to Burma following a UN Security Council meeting last week on
the crisis. China blocked calls for a strong statement condemning Burma's
repressive actions, the final text only urging restraint. China's UN
ambassador Wang Guangya told reporters afterwards that the situation did
not "constitute a threat to international and regional peace," the formal
threshold needed for Security Council action.

President Bush last week announced more sanctions, including financial and
visa restrictions on 14 senior Burmese leaders. But many are skeptical of
the short-term impact of new measures. "Our sanctions are not going to
affect the generals," says a senior US diplomat in Asia.

Isolated by Western opprobrium, Burma's rulers rely on trade and
investment with Asian countries. China is in the spotlight - two-way trade
with Burma doubled between 1999 and 2005 to $1.2 billion - but it's far
from the only player. In recent years, India, South Korea, and Thailand
have signed deals for natural gas and other resources. By deferring to
China as a dominant diplomatic voice, other countries gain a smokescreen
for their own interests in Burma, say analysts.

That was underlined last week as India's oil minister held talks in Burma
as protests were peaking in Rangoon. India is vying with China to build
gas pipelines from Burma's offshore fields to its energy-hungry cities,
and its government has made little public comment on the crisis.

Similar reticence has long been the norm in ASEAN, which argues that
"constructive engagement," not sanctions, can reform Burma's junta. Last
week's bloodshed prompted ASEAN leaders to express "revulsion" and call on
Burma to "seek a political solution," a far more robust formulation than
on previous occasions.

Given its own political drama since last year's military coup, Thailand
was caught flat-footed. Junta chief Gen. Sondhi Boonyaratglin, who met
last month with Burmese counterpart Gen. Than Shwe, told Thai TV it was an
internal affair.

Some politicians have called for stiffer action from ASEAN. "Burma should
be expelled immediately," former senator Kraisak Choonhavan, an outspoken
critic of the junta, told reporters. But, analysts note, ASEAN's new
charter, due to be adopted later this year, has no clauses on expulsion or
suspension after Burma and other members objected.

* Staff writers Peter Ford in Beijing and Howard LaFranchi in New York
contributed to this report.

____________________________________

October 1, Associated Press
Amnesty calls for arms embargo on Burma

Amnesty International on Monday urged the U.N. Security Council to impose
a mandatory arms embargo on Burma, and urged the country's main arms
suppliers—China and India—to suspend all deals.

"An unambiguous message must be sent urgently to Burma military leaders
that their brutal crackdown on peaceful protesters ... will not be
tolerated or fueled by any member of the international community," Irene
Khan of the human rights group said in a statement.

The junta crushed a pro-democracy movement last week when troops used live
ammunition, tear gas and batons to drive demonstrators off the streets.
Hundreds of people, including Buddhist monks, were arrested for their role
in the demonstrations. Many monasteries were ransacked and sealed.

The government says 10 people were killed in the crackdown, but dissident
groups and foreign governments say the number is far higher.

"It is unacceptable for states to continue to supply arms to a government
that is already responsible for persistent serious violations of human
rights and which now resorts to violence against peaceful demonstrators,"
Khan was quoted as saying.

The U.N. embargo should remain in place until the junta takes real steps
to improve the human rights situation, the statement said.

Amnesty also called on the principal suppliers of arms to Burma,
particularly China and India, in addition to Russia, Serbia, Ukraine and
Southeast Asian nations, to stop arms deals with Burma.

Since 1988, Amnesty said, China has supplied Burma's army with a range of
military equipment. India is also reported to have agreed to supply
military equipment to Burma, Amnesty said.

In January, India's foreign minister promised to give a "favorable
response" to the Burma junta's request for military equipment. The
militaries of the two countries conducted joint exercises in April.

The European Union and the U.S. imposed embargoes on the direct and
indirect supply of military items to Burma in 1988 and 1993 respectively.

Earlier this year, Russia reported to the U.N. that it exported 100 large
caliber artillery systems to Burma in 2006. China does not regularly
report its arms transfers to the United Nations.

____________________________________

October 1, Democratic Voice of Burma
Solidarity protests held around the world

Demonstrations are being held and planned around the world as an
expression of solidarity with protestors in Burma.

Demonstrators in Asia, Europe and North America have come out in support
of the recent anti-government protests in Burma which were brutally
suppressed by the regime.

In India, about 100 people, including Burmese activists living in exile
and monks of Burmese citizenship, staged a demonstration on Parliament
Road in the Indian capital New Delhi yesterday to protest the military
regime’s brutal treatment of Burmese monks and protestors.

Protestors chanted slogans in Hindi calling for the release of Burmese
opposition leader Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and for action to be taken against
the junta for causing the deaths of several protestors inside the country,
including monks.

In South Korea, hundreds of protestors marched on the Burmese embassy in
Seoul. They included exiled Burmese activists, National League for
Democracy (Liberated Area) members, Burmese workers and South Koreans
sympathetic to the Burmese protestors' plight.

Ms Ju Ji-Young, coordinator of Free Burma Korea, expressed her shock at
the brutal crackdowns against protestors.

“We are very shocked and sad to see the military dictators killing not
only civilians but also monks. We are now doing what we can to support the
Burmese people’s fight to bring down the military dictatorship,” she said.

Further demonstrations are planned in other countries over the coming
days, with online communities of supporters of the Burmese demonstrations
calling for an international day of action on 6 October.

In the UK, an estimated 3,000 people took part in a demonstration in
London organised by the Burmese Democratic Movement Association, a Burmese
community organisation, according to Burma Campaign UK.

____________________________________

October 1, Irrawaddy
The junta mobilizes its mouthpieces - Aye Lae

A junta-backed organization has been forcing thousands of people to attend
rallies against the demonstrations led by monks, according to local
residents.

Last week, the Union Solidarity and Development Association organized
rallies in Myitkyina in Kachin State, as well as in Kyaukpadaung, Taungtha
and Myingyan townships in Mandalay Division. Local residents in other
townships said that more rallies in their cities and townships are
believed to have been organized for the days ahead, especially in Rangoon.

A resident of Myitkyina said that on September 28, high school students in
Myitkyina were taken in local authorities’ vehicles and forced to attend a
gathering at a football park at 5:30 a.m. Teachers told the students that
if they didn’t join the rally, they wouldn’t be allowed to take their
final exam, the resident said. It is believed that teachers were forced to
convey that message to their students.

A woman who requested anonymity told The Irrawaddy by telephone that the
rallies against the demonstrators are also intended to drum up support for
the junta’s National Convention, which concluded at the end of August.

A resident from Taungdwingyi said, “We have to go their rallies. If I
don’t, I’ll get fined 10,000 kyat (US $7.1). However, if I do go, I was
told I’d receive 3,000 kyat (US $2.1).”

A leader of the Karen Literature and Culture Committee in Karen State said
that ethnic committees like his were ordered to send at least 500 people
from their groups to join the rallies in Mon, Karen and Shan states.

In Kyaukpadaung, according to local residents, at least three people from
a house were forced to join a demonstration against the pro-democracy
demonstrations led by monks.

Residents in Tachilek, a border town bordering Thailand’s Mae Sai, also
said that people would be fined if they didn’t join the rallies which have
been scheduled to take place in Kengtung, the nearest town to Tachilek.
Residents said that people who don’t join the rallies will be fined, just
as in Taungdwingyi.

The USDA has been notorious in organizing violent attacks on peaceful
demonstrations.

However, the state-run newspaper The New Light of Myanmmar said that “USDA
members serve the interest of the state and of people’s consciences while
[the state] is striving to win the trust and love of the people.”

____________________________________
OPINION / OTHER

October 1, Asia Times
Cracks emerge in Myanmar military unity - Larry Jagan

Myanmar's protests have lost steam as security forces clamp down, killing
over a dozen and arresting as many as 1,000 people involved in the recent
street protests that have grabbed global headlines. Now there are
indications that the ruling State Peace and Development Council's (SPDC's)
top two generals are at loggerheads over how to proceed in the aftermath
of the crackdown.

SPDC second-in-command General Maung Aye reportedly opposed using force
against the tens of thousands of monks who took to the streets, bringing
him into conflict with Senior General Than Shwe, according to sources
close to Maung Aye. Some soldiers in the old capital of Yangon and the
city of Mandalay last week reportedly refused to obey their senior
officers' commands to attack or shoot at protesting monks, according to
diplomatic sources in Yangon. Several aid workers in Mandalay reportedly
witnessed soldiers there refusing to open fire when ordered by commanding
officers.

General Than Shwe, the SPDC's top general, personally gave the orders to
the local commanders in Yangon to shoot into the crowd, a military source
told Asia Times Online. "The two main commanders in Yangon have told their
subordinates that the senior general directly ordered the attack last
week," he said. That shoot-to-kill policy has backfired on the junta, with
international condemnation coming from the West as well as neighboring
countries included in the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations
(ASEAN), of which Myanmar is a member.

United Nations special envoy to Myanmar Ibrahim Gambari met with detained
opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi on Sunday and is reportedly now
pressing to meet with both Than Shwe and Maung Aye. So far the SPDC
leadership has declined to meet with the UN envoy, perhaps, some analysts
speculate, precisely because the top two generals now view the next steps
in dealing with the crisis differently.

There are unconfirmed reports that Than Shwe's wife and one of his
daughters, as well as his top business associate, Tay Za, flew out of the
country on a Air Bagan flight to Singapore last week and have since
traveled on to Dubai in the United Arab Emirates. Their apparent flight
came against the backdrop of growing questions about troop loyalty due to
orders to shoot at monks and the possibility that they could have broken
rank and joined with the street protestors.

"If the current crackdown results in more bloodshed, a mutiny within the
400,000-strong armed forces is a distinct possibility," said Win Min, a
Myanmar analyst based in Chiang Mai, Thailand. "Family members of the
grassroots soldiers are suffering from increasing food and fuel prices
like the people who are demonstrating, though top level officers are
getting amazingly rich."

Indeed, there have already been notable instances of a breakdown in the
chain of command, according to diplomats. On September 20, for still
unclear reasons security forces positioned at the barricades blocking
access to Aung San Suu Kyi's house allowed marching monks to pass and pray
in front of the house, an episode that was widely reported worldwide. The
following day, however, another group of monks bidding to pass her
compound was turned away by a larger number of security personnel.

On Saturday, Maung Aye personally took control of the operations in Yangon
and he reportedly posted soldiers with sub-machine guns at the entrance to
University Avenue where Suu Kyi is under house arrest.

It is unclear if the apparent divergent views between the SPDC's top two
generals have resulted in a full-blown rift. But there are signs that Than
Shwe fears a possible internal military power play, similar to the one in
1992 that resulted in his rise to power.

Maung Aye apparently believes the use of the civilian organization, the
Union Solidarity and Development Association (USDA), to control the crowds
is damaging the army's authority and threatens even broader instability,
according to a source close to his family. Plainclothes USDA members have
used crude weapons and taken the lead in brutally assaulting and detaining
protestors. Notably, the organization is the brainchild of Than Shwe,
which he helped to establish in 1993 to create the illusion of grassroots
support for the military's civilian programs and has relied on in the past
to crack down on political opposition.

Curfews and detentions
After detaining key members of the 88 Generation Student Group that
started the protests on September 19, military authorities have apparently
been at a loss in identifying who is leading the protests. They have
recently swooped on Yangon's Buddhist monasteries and temples, arresting
hundreds of monks, in an apparent effort to locate the protest leaders and
halt the demonstrations.

Key opposition figures, among them actors, artists, journalists and
writers, including even the renowned comedian Zargana, have also been
detained. Most of the leading members of Suu Kyi's pro-democracy party,
the National League for Democracy (NLD), have likewise been arrested in
recent days.

While there is a lull in the street protests at present, with both the
military and protestors apparently regrouping and reorganizing, there is
little doubt that a major movement to overthrow the military regime is in
the making. While the monks were the leading force in recent weeks, former
and current activists and student leaders are now reportedly organizing
behind the scenes.

Senior monks and students recently formed a joint "strike committee" to
lead future demonstrations. "We are going for it, this is our time. We
have to take this chance now as there may never be another one," a senior
former student leader recently told Asia Times Online from hiding inside
the country. "The students will support the monks' peaceful protests," he
said.

After weeks of mainly peaceful protests led by the monks, the regime
finally dropped their policy of restraint last week and hit back, killing
at least 13 and injuring many more. Dusk-to-dawn curfews are now in place
in Yangon and Mandalay and more than 20,000 troops have been deployed in
the former capital. Soldiers are stationed outside Buddhist monasteries
and temples to prevent the monks from returning to the streets and they
have reportedly been warned that they would be shot if they ignored the
warning.

Up until a week ago the monks had been primarily protesting against the
local authorities' use of violence to quell an earlier march near
Mandalay, where several monks were badly beaten by violent vigilantes
wielding sticks. All along, though, the monks have also been calling on
the government to reduce prices, supporting the first of the public
protests that broke out more than a month ago after the government raised
certain fuel charges by up to 500%.

"They know better than anyone the impact the rising fuel and food prices
is having on the people at the grassroots," said Myanmar analyst Aung
Naing Oo, noting that monks rely on the donation of daily alms for their
survival. "They understand that this has become harder and harder,
especially over the last two years. What they used to collect from four or
five houses, now takes more than 30," he said.

But Buddhist monks are now clearly in the political vanguard, depending on
which monks you listen to, alternatively for national reconciliation,
dialogue between the military and the political opposition National League
for Democracy, or outright regime change through popular protests. The
fact that the Buddhist clergy has recently taken on such an overt
political role is exceptional.

After the military first assaulted monks near Mandalay, a new group
emerged known as the All Burma Monks Alliance, which represents a younger,
more radical segment of the Buddhist clergy. They have since urged
ordinary people "to struggle peacefully against the evil military
dictatorship until it is banished from the land".

"Normally monks are not political," said Win Min, based at Chiang Mai
University in northern Thailand. "They focus on their individual
enlightenment according to traditional Buddhism. What is happening now
shows that the situation has reached the point where they can no longer
tolerate it."

So far Suu Kyi's NLD has been a bystander and her members seemingly
uninvolved in organizing the spontaneous monk-led marches. But the
charismatic leader is known to have strong support among the protesting
monks and she would seem to be the key to any potential political
settlement to the recent unrest.

Than Shwe is known to harbor a strong personal grudge against her and he
would likely be unwilling to enter into any compromise that shared power
with her NLD. The wildcard is whether another military faction inside the
SPDC views things differently and might be willing to take the chance of
trying to remove their recalcitrant leader for their own political gain.

Larry Jagan previously covered Myanmar politics for the British
Broadcasting Corp. He is currently a freelance journalist based in
Bangkok.

____________________________________

October 1, Wall Street Journal Online
Burmese Days - Nay Tin Myint

I survived 15 years in a Burmese jail. Seven of those years were spent in
solitary confinement. My only crime was to give a speech.

Now I am concerned for the well-being of the hundreds of people who have
been arrested in recent weeks in Burma. The arrests began when Burma's '88
Generation Students group (the name comes from the 1988 uprising when
troops opened fire on student demonstrators, killing thousands) began
protesting on Aug. 19. The protest was in response to the dramatic
increase in fuel prices. The Burmese regime responded swiftly and brutally
by arresting the leaders of the protest in the middle of the night.

These activists will likely be sentenced to 20 years imprisonment without
trial. Trials don't exist in Burma. Having experienced the brutality and
cruelty of the interrogation centers and prisons in Burma, I have no doubt
they are being severely tortured. There are rumors that many have been
hospitalized. All of these activists have previously served lengthy prison
sentences like mine.

Life in a Burmese prison must be the closest thing to hell. The regime
breaks all international laws, even those it has agreed to uphold. Torture
is the main method of interrogation and intimidation. The idea is to
degrade, humiliate and break our spirit by methods such as electric shock,
heavy shackles, and inedible and odorous food and water. I was shackled
and chained for two-and-a-half years. While shackled, I was forced to
crawl over sharpened stones all the while being severely beaten. Of course
I was not allowed to see a doctor.

They put my body in prison, but I decided they could not have my mind. We
were not permitted to read or write and were given barely enough food.
Only after four years, a visit from the International Committee of the Red
Cross (ICRC) loosened some of these restrictions. But most of the medicine
and supplies the ICRC brought us were taken away and sold by the prison
authorities; if we needed injections, the same few needles were used for
all of us. The number of deaths in prison due to HIV-AIDS is unknown.

In June, the president of the ICRC, in an unprecedented action, strongly
denounced the regime publicly for major violations of international
humanitarian law. The ICRC has not been allowed access to Burmese prisons
since 2005.

During my first two or three months in prison I was very depressed. I
wanted to see my parents, talk to my friends and take a bath. Then I
decided that to survive I would put these desires out of my mind and
concentrate on how not to die in prison. I had to survive to deny the
Burmese military victory over me and the aspirations of all my comrades.
My Buddhist religion, instilled in me by my parents, along with daily
meditation, kept my mind focused and sharp.

For Buddhists, monks are revered above all others. Even to touch a monk is
forbidden. Therefore, to see monks being humiliated by having their robes
publicly removed, and by being arrested, beaten and shot, is an outrage in
such a devoutly Buddhist country.

When I now think of those monks, and the imprisoned democracy activists
Min Ko Naing and Ko Ko Gyi and other '88 Generation leaders, I am sad but
hopeful. These brave friends dared to defy the authorities with peaceful
demonstrations against a mismanaged economy, knowing full well they were
risking jail -- if not death. I know they will survive, because they, like
me, believe in the rightness of our cause. More importantly, they believe
in themselves.

The regime's violent crackdown against peaceful protests in 1988 did not
solve the problems facing the country. Nor will its brutal response to
these demonstrations taking place almost 20 years later. After decades of
civil war and years of military rule it is clear that the regime's
approach is not the solution. Without genuine dialogue leading to a
permanent political solution, there can be no positive outcome for the
country.

The world was not watching in 1988 when thousands were killed by the guns
of the regime. They are watching now. The people of Burma must not be let
down again.

Mr. Myint, a founder of Burma's National League for Democracy Youth and
the '88 Generation Students group, served 15 years in a Burmese prison,
seven in solitary confinement.

____________________________________

October 1, Washington Post
What we owe the Burmese - Fred Hiatt

An upheaval like the pro-democracy uprising taking place in Burma over the
past month tends to shake up certainties that had seemed self-evident.
Certainties such as the primacy of justice. Or the sanctity of the Olympic
Games.

Despite an academic industry devoted to the subject, no one can predict
when an oppressed people will find that precise combination of
hopelessness and hope, impatience and solidarity, and recklessness and
anger that leads it to rebel. Nor can anyone answer the most important
question facing Burma now: When will the boys and men who prop up a
corrupt regime with their guns and prison cells decide that they have had
enough -- that they no longer want to shoot unarmed Buddhist monks or
round up young girls for possession of cellphones with cameras?

But this much is sure: The first process is rare and precious enough, and
the second so difficult to initiate, that those on the outside must do
whatever they can to support and encourage both. We're a long way from
having fulfilled that obligation.

Over the past decade, human rights advocates have united behind the notion
of accountability for dictators and war criminals. They persuaded most of
the world's nations to sign on to the International Criminal Court. The
theory is no mercy, no compromise, no temporizing.

No one deserves trial more than Burma's Gen. Than Shwe and his cronies.
They have looted their country's natural wealth and turned its army into a
monster that rapes and press-gangs its compatriots. More than 1.5 million
people have been routed from their villages, often with bayonets having
been thrust through their rice pots to ensure that they go hungry. Now the
regime is rounding up nonviolent protesters in the most violent way, and
-- if past practice is any indicator -- torturing many of them in some of
the world's bleakest prisons.

Yet if amnesty for these despicable men could buy release for their
country -- if we could trade their safe passage to China and a guarantee
of undisturbed retirement for a chance to free 2,000 or more political
prisoners, unshackle democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi and help Burma's 50
million people onto a path to self-governance, would we reject such a
deal? If we could split the regime by promising leniency to the generals
who refuse to take part in the crackdown, would we be too pure to do so?

I know the arguments against such compromises, and they are powerful: the
difficulty of achieving national reconciliation without national justice;
the value of warning future dictators that they will pay for future
crimes; the gall of monsters going free. And still, given the unbearable
alternative of watching a people be crushed for the second time in two
decades, I would do anything to guide those monsters to pleasant seaside
villas.

And here's something else I would do: Tell China that, as far as the
United States is concerned, it can have its Olympic Games or it can have
its regime in Burma. It can't have both.

Here, too, I understand the arguments against: China's rulers are
gradually becoming more responsible in the world; to threaten their Games
would only get their backs up. The Games themselves offer a chance to
enhance international understanding; if we let world affairs interfere,
there will always -- every two years -- be some cause. The athletes have
trained for years; they deserve their chance.

And yet: Hundreds of thousands of Burmese have risked everything -- their
homes, their families, their lives -- to be free. They have done so with
nothing on their side but courage, faith and the hope that the world might
stand with them. And they still have a chance to succeed.

Whether they do depends mostly on decisions made inside Burma. But people
and countries outside can have some effect. Burma's neighbors in Southeast
Asia could do more. The world's largest democracy, India, could do far
more. China could do most of all.

China's Communist rulers have reasons not to help Burma's democrats. They
enjoy privileged access to Burma's timber and other resources, for one.
Even more fundamentally, dictators will shudder when they see another
illegitimate regime threatened by people power.

What could push them the other way? Their desire to be seen as responsible
players, maybe. Their desire to have their one-party rule recognized as
more sophisticated and legitimate than the paranoid generals of Burma,
maybe. And, maybe, their deep desire to host a successful Olympics next
summer.

If a threat to those Games -- delivered privately, if that would be most
effective, with no loss of face -- could help tip the balance, then let
the Games not begin. Some things matter more.

____________________________________

October 1, New York Sun
Burma and Beijing (Editorial)

The scenes of Buddhist monks and peaceful demonstrators being beaten and
murdered on the streets of Rangoon are distressing for all those who
believe in free expression and democracy. Thanks to the technological
revolution, we have been able to see the horror of the Burmese junta's
repression on our television screens. Tyrants are no longer free to harass
their people and stifle dissent without its being transmitted around the
world by citizen reporters with cell-phone cameras, though some of the
worst violence in Burma, in monasteries where saffron dressed holy men
devoted to a life of peace have been torn from their beds and
incarcerated, have been kept out of sight.

Outrage against barbarity of the Burmese military dictators has been given
voice by Laura Bush, who, in a rare intervention in foreign affairs by any
First Lady, has called for the junta to hand over power to the
democratically elected leader of Burma, Aung San Suu Kyi. In 1990 Aung San
Suu Kyi won 392 of 489 seats in the People's Assembly, but the military
has kept her under house arrest for all except a few days of the last 18
years. Mrs. Bush's voice could be clearly heard at the United Nations last
week when she made a braodcast into Burma. President Bush also spent the
largest part of his speech to the General Assembly to announce measures
and sanctions aimed at encouraging democracy in Burma.

That the Bush doctrine - that freedom is the God-given desire of all
people and that America's interests include the spread of freedom and
democracy - have found a champion in Mrs. Bush may not be surprising. What
has been surprising is how slow the left has been to rise to the issue of
Burma. At the Clinton Global Initiative at the Sheraton Hotel in New York
last week, it took Rupert Murdoch, who has been much criticized for his
reluctance to draw attention to China's democratic deficit because of his
business interests there, to raise the violence in Burma.

As the Clinton panel on how multi-religious and multi-ethic populations
can better get along together was winding up, and former president of
Ireland Mary Robinson asked for thoughts on the 60th anniversary of the
U.N. charter of human rights - a document, incidentally, forced through
the General Assembly line by line by an erstwhile First Lady, Eleanor
Roosevelt - it fell to Mr. Murdoch to mention Burma. "We haven't mentioned
the horror in Myanamar," he said. "Human rights are just being
steamrolled. What should be done? There is talk enough."

The U.N., whose third secretary general, U Thant, was Burmese, has rushed
an emissary to Rangoon, though he is unlikely to achieve more than
reinforce what we know already: that an international organization in
which Communist China has a veto is going to prove powerless in the face
of determined and violent tyrants. Mr. Bush's clampdown on trade with the
Burmese regime and the travel ban on its members will take some time to
work. The military took control of Burma in 1962, and martial law has
obtained there since 1989.

China is Burma's main trading partner and has equipped the junta with the
arms essential for its decades of repression. The trick will be to make
President Hu see that China's interests lie in lifting the oppression of
Burma, which means putting the Olympic Games next year in question. No
doubt Mr. Hu and his communist camarilla fear that the stirrings in Burma
will prove contagious. They fear a reprise of the pro-democracy
demonstrations at Tiananmen Square occurring while the eyes of the world
will be on them. So the logic is for the administration to think in these
terms now - and let the Chinese communists know that it is doing so.