BurmaNet News, October 27-29, 2007

[Editor]

October 27-29, 2007 Issue # 3330

INSIDE BURMA
DVB: Missing NLD member found dead
New York Times: Myanmar magic: Tell a joke, and you disappear
Irrawaddy: United we stand, say ethnic leaders
DVB: Women pressured to denounce monks
Irrawaddy: Rangoon residents forced onto the streets
Oxford Analytica via Forbes.com: Fear limits internet use In Myanmar
AP: Burma junta denounces US as bully

ON THE BORDER
Irrawaddy: Burmese exile media on alert after crackdown warning

BUSINESS / TRADE
Kachin News Group: Sycophant Kachin tycoon flees country
Bloomberg: Chevron committed to Myanmar project, O'Reilly says

HEALTH / AIDS
Irrawaddy: Junta bans news of bird flu outbreak

ASEAN
AFP: ASEAN, EU to work together on Myanmar

REGIONAL
Mizzima News: Singapore pursues policy, not regime change
Mizzima News: Taiwan to work for democracy in Burma

INTERNATIONAL
Mizzima News: Burmese Americans question US on sanctions policy
AP: French FM says sanctions against Myanmar should be coupled with
incentives

OPINION / OTHER
YaleGlobal: The next steps for Burma - Amitav Acharya
Irrawaddy: A meaningful dialogue needs courage - Htet Aung
The Nation: Time for Thailand to revisit its policy on Burma - Kavi
Chongkittavorn
Financial Times: Battle to beat Burma junta's siege mentality - Amy Kazmin
Forbes: The Sanctions Myth - Matthew Swibel and Soyoung Ho

____________________________________
INSIDE BURMA

October 29, Democratic Voice of Burma
Missing NLD member found dead

A member of the National League for Democracy in Arakan who had been
reported missing by his family members has been found dead, said his
colleagues.

Nyi Pu Lay was member of the NLD in Taunggok township, and was an
enthusiastic participant in last month's protests.

He had been in hiding from arrest for nearly 20 days before his dead body
was found decomposing in a creek near the township on 19 October,
according to Arakan NLD's joint-secretary U Thein Hlaing.

"Ko Nyi Pu Lay was with the protests all along the time. He fled his house
on 1 October as he was living under threat of government arrest for his
involvement in the protests," said U Thein Hlaing.

"His dead body, which was in bad shape, was found on the 19th
 the police
recovered it from the creek and buried it the next day," he said.

U Thein Hlaing said that the police claimed an autopsy was performed on Ko
Nyi Pu Lay’s body by the township [hospital] doctors before it was buried.
They said no injury was found on the body.

Nyi Pu Lay's family was not informed that his body had been found until
they filed a missing person report at the police station four days after
his death.

They were able to confirm that the deceased was Nyi Pu Lay when the police
showed them the clothes he was wearing when his body was found.

This follows news that a number of other members of Taunggok NLD have been
released.

Kyaw Khine, an 85-year-old elected member of parliament, Taunggok NLD
chairman Than Phe and Htun Kyi, a member of Taunggok NLD communication
committee were released on 24 October.

Taunggok township resident Tin Htun Aye, who joined the protests carrying
a flag, was also released.

Soe Min, a solo protestor from a village in the township who called for
junta leader senior general Than Shwe to be expelled from Buddhist
society, was released despite being recently sentenced to four years’
imprisonment.

Taunggok NLD secretary Min Aung continues to be detained.

____________________________________

October 29, New York Times
Myanmar magic: Tell a joke, and you disappear - Choe Sang-Hun

U Par Par Lay goes to India to have his toothache treated. The Indian
dentist wonders why the Burmese man has come all the way to India.

''Don't you have dentists in Myanmar?'' he asks.

''Oh, yes, we do, doctor,'' Mr. Par Par Lay says. ''But in Myanmar, we are
not allowed to open our mouths.''

That's a favorite joke by Mr. Par Par Lay, a third-generation practitioner
of a-nyeint pwe, Myanmar's traditional vaudeville, featuring puppets,
music and slapstick comedy tinged with in-your-face political satire --
all in a country where cracking the wrong joke can land you in jail.

Mr. Par Par Lay, the 60-year-old leader of the Mustache Brothers troupe,
is paying dearly for it.

About midnight on Sept. 25, his relatives say, the police raided their
home-cum-theater here and took him away. On the same day, at least one
other popular comedian who had previously been imprisoned for his
political jokes, a man named Zargana in Yangon, the largest city, was
arrested, according to Amnesty International and local residents.

The tightening of the gag on dissident voices occurred as the ruling junta
conducted a bloody crackdown on the first major pro-democracy uprising in
this country in 19 years, led by Buddhist monks.

''I tried to find him, but I don't know where he is,'' said Mr. Par Par
Lay's wife, Daw Ma Win Ma, 56, a dancer. ''If the past is an indication,
he must have been beaten a lot. I am worried about whether he is alive or
not.''

The Mustache Brothers are a family troupe of 13 comedians, dancers and
musicians. Mr. Par Par Lay and his brother U Lu Maw, 58, favor handlebar
mustaches, the source of their group's name. They used to travel from
village to village, performing at weddings, funerals and festivals. In
former days, Burmese kings would watch a-nyeint pwe (pronounced ah-NYAY
pway) to gauge public sentiment couched in the comedy.

But it seems the current junta never developed a taste for it.

In 1990, when the military government rejected the decisive victory of the
National League for Democracy led by Daw Aung San Suu Kyi in the country's
first election in 30 years and placed her under house arrest, Mr. Par Par
Lay was thrown in jail for six months for his political jokes.

In 1996 his troupe performed before an audience of 2,000, including
Yangon-based foreign ambassadors, at the lakeside compound of Mrs. Aung
San Suu Kyi, by then a Nobel Peace Prize laureate. A videotape of the
event shows Mrs. Aung San Suu Kyi laughing, clearly entertained.

The generals apparently were less amused. Mr. Par Par Lay and his cousin U
Lu Zaw, also a comedian, were sentenced to seven years in a labor camp.
Mr. Par Par Lay was released after five and a half years.

Afterward, the government scratched the Mustache Brothers from the list of
state-licensed artists that residents of Myanmar, the former Burma, were
permitted to hire. Determined to keep their tradition alive and to make a
living, they turned to performing for foreigners.

Even with Mr. Par Par Lay gone, his family has kept the theater on a
run-down street, which Mr. Lu Maw proudly likened to the West End of
London and Broadway.

''We are artists: we believe in ordinary people, not in the government,''
Mr. Lu Maw said in English. ''We need light, but in Myanmar, light on and
off. Not enough electricity. No water supply. School -- money, money,
money! Ordinary people no money.

''So we joke. People need a good joke. But the government don't like us
because we joke.''

Mr. Lu Maw, the only English speaker in the troupe, whose spoofs the
government has appeared not to mind too much as long as they are performed
only in English, said he learned the language from tourists.

''My favorite English is American and English slang,'' he said. ''My
brother in the clink, up the river, in big house.''

His street-side theater can accommodate barely 10 red plastic chairs.
Marionettes are hung against a wall. On display was a picture of Mrs. Aung
San Suu Kyi visiting the Mustache Brothers in June 2002. Outside, Mr. Lu
Maw's nephews kept an eye out for the police.

Mr. Lu Maw said Mr. Par Par Lay had strong opinions about the generals who
have mismanaged this resource-rich country into poverty.

As one story unfolds, a general has died and become a big fish. As the
tsunami rolls toward Myanmar, the fish surfaces and admonishes the wave:
''Stop! I have already done that here.''

But Mr. Lu Maw said the recent crackdown on the monks by soldiers was ''no
good for jokes.''

''People are sad,'' he said. ''Man kill man, you go to hell. This Buddhist
belief. Now they are killing monks! They go beyond hell.''

Mr. Lu Maw said everyone in Myanmar was busy trying to keep up with rising
prices, which is what originally drove people onto the streets to protest
in August. International pressure has helped his family, he said. When Mr.
Par Par Lay was arrested in 1996, he said, British and Hollywood comedians
and actors wrote to the Myanmar government in protest.

''We need their help again,'' Mr. Lu Maw said. ''Richard Gere's support is
especially important because he is a Buddhist. We need a Rambo.''

Despite Mr. Lu Maw's tireless optimism, his theater was permeated with
sadness. In recent weeks the family has struggled to make ends meet
because of the dearth of foreign tourists. Mustache Brothers T-shirts are
collecting dust. Older members of the family were lying listlessly on a
wooden bed on the mud-brick floor.

''If the government comes and takes his clothes and food, then I will know
he is alive,'' Ms. Ma Win Ma, Mr. Par Par Lay's wife, said. Mr. Lu Maw
said that when Mr. Par Par Lay was in prison camp, he used to perform for
other inmates before bedtime. ''Maybe he is performing in prison
somewhere,'' Mr. Lu Maw said. ''Yes, we are afraid. But we keep on going.
We just joke. This is our job, our family tradition.''

____________________________________

October 29, Irrawaddy
United we stand, say ethnic leaders - Shah Paung

Ethnic leaders based inside Burma have told The Irrawaddy that they
supported the recent monk-led protests. This comes in response to reports
suggesting that exiled ethnic groups shied away from the protests and
largely ignored the uprising.

The leaders confirmed that they did not view the uprising as a conflict
between Burman and Burman, but a fight between the military government and
the people of Burma.

A substantial percentage of Burma’s population is made up of ethnic
peoples, including the Kachin, Karen, Shan, Mon and Arakan (Rakhine). The
regime often claims in its propaganda-prone media that Burma has more than
130 national races, but does not clarify the subgroups of the minorities.
The multicultural claim has raised fears among several governments in the
region that Burma could disintegrate into another Yugoslavia or Iraq once
the regime is overthrown.

Ethnic minorities joined in the nationwide demonstrations, side by side
with Burmans. Although the monk-led demonstrations mainly took place in
Rangoon, there were also protests in ethnic areas, particularly Arakan and
Kachin states.

Aye Tha Aung, chairman of the Arakan League for Democracy and the
secretary of the Committee Representing People’s Parliament, said that
since the junta took power in 1962 the country’s political and economic
situation has deteriorated.

“The fight for democracy is also a fight for the rights of ethnic people,”
the leading Arakanese politician told The Irrawaddy by phone.

Khin Htwe Myint, an elected member of parliament from the Karen State
National League for Democracy told The Irrawaddy that the majority of
people living inside Burma faced great difficulties as a result of
military rule.

“Those who think the recent demonstrations were just for the benefit of
one political party or one individual are very narrow-minded people,” she
said.

During the peaceful protests, the security forces arrested more than 3,000
demonstrators, including Buddhist monks and well-known ethnic leaders who
were outspoken, such as Cin Sian Thang, a member of the CRPP and chairman
of the Zomi National Congress; and Thawng Kho Thang, also a member of the
CRPP and the United Nationalities League for Democracy.

Burma’s ethnic leaders live in danger. Aye Tha Aung, and Shwe Ohn, aged
84, the senior leader of the Democratic League for the National Races of
the Shan, claim that they are closely monitored by the Burmese authorities
and can be arrested at any time.
In February, 2005, Hkun Htun Oo, chairman of the Shan Nationalities League
for Democracy, Sai Nyut Lwin, secretary of SNLD, Maj-Gen Sao Hso Ten,
president of the Shan State Peace Council and Sai Hla Aung of SSPC were
all arrested and given life sentences.
Several ethnic leaders are reputed to be narrow-minded; however, not only
are they moderate and broad-minded, but they have been active in the
democracy movement and take great risks in continuing the fight, not only
for the rights of ethnic minorities but for all the people of Burma.

Aye Tha Aung and Khin Htwe Myint are cautious and emphasize that there are
many opposition groups and armed groups living in Burma. Although their
goal is the same they still cannot overthrow the regime.

“In this situation we have to think about unity,” Khin Htwe Myint said.
“If we work together as one united front and are of the same conviction,
we will achieve our aim.”

Aye Tha Aung questioned why so many dedicated groups have taken so long to
topple the military regime. “Is this because of the military government is
too strong?” he asked.

“If we want to build a federal democracy in our country we have to work
together believing in this mission,” Aye Tha Aung added.

“We can never achieve it if we are not united—especially when we are
fighting against the military rulers.”

____________________________________

October 29, Democratic Voice of Burma
Women pressured to denounce monks

Two women held in Insein prison were pressured to testify against monks,
according to a National League for Democracy member who was detained with
the women.

Ma Ohmar, an NLD member from Dagon Myothit township, spoke to DVB in an
interview on 26 October, the day after her release.

She was arrested on 25 September and held first in a reserved holding area
in Insein prison, then interrogated by the 8th Regiment at Mingaladon for
four days before being sent to Insein prison on 29 September and held
there until here release.

Ma Ohmar told DVB that a woman who was held in the cell next to her, Ma
Ei, was pressured to testify as a government witness, and claimed she was
given an earlier release because of her cooperation.

“Ma Ei was under tremendous pressure and she had to give testimony as a
government witness
and she was released about two weeks earlier than us,”
Ma Ohmar said.

Ma Ohmar also claimed that Hnin Hnin from Ngwekyaryan monastery, another
woman who is still in detention, was instructed to say that she had had
illicit relations with monks.

“They recited what she should say and she repeated after them. They
documented it on videotape. They intend to use her as a prosecution
witness also,” Ma Ohmar said.

“They are making up stories and videotaping it to prove that the monks in
question are fake monks.”

When asked about her own treatment in detention, Ma Ohmar said that she
was not physically abused, but that food, water and medication were
withheld from the detainees and they were deprived of sleep.

“They woke us up at awkward hours when we were sound asleep. Even the
water they gave us was dirty. One day I was interrogated the whole day
without water,” she said.

She was refused medical attention and medicine for urinary problems, but
was finally given some water to drink.

“I was very thirsty so I slowly drank the water like it was my medicine.
When the water was almost gone, I found hairs, dead ants, and some
deposits in the container,” she said.

Many of those arrested during the demonstrations in September who have now
been released have reported ill-treatment in detention.

____________________________________

October 29, Irrawaddy
Rangoon residents forced onto the streets - Wai Moe

The Burmese military government held pro-constitution draft rallies in
nine townships of Rangoon on Monday morning for the first time, while
authorities forced residents onto the streets to join the rallies,
according to sources.

“The officials ordered each ward, or neighborhood, to send 500 people to
this morning’s rallies,” said a Dagon Myo Thit resident. “After the rally
at the public park in Dagon Yeik Mon Garden City, they (the officials)
told us to walk around the townships. People don’t want to show their
faces at pro-junta rallies because it is considered shameful.”

The objective of today’s rallies was to show support for the junta’s
constitution draft and the seven-step “Road Map to Democracy” plan, said
the source. The protesters shouted slogans in support of the junta’s
agenda regarding the “Road Map.” Thousands of people reportedly attended
this morning’s rallies in Rangoon.

As the first step in the “Road Map,” the national convention concluded on
September 3, a few weeks before monks led mass protests in Burma and the
subsequent violent crackdown by the security forces.

The second step of the seven-step road map is rather obscure: “After the
successful holding of the National Convention, step-by-step implementation
of the process necessary for the emergence of a genuine and disciplined
democratic system.”

As the third step—under decree 2/2007—a committee of 45 professional
persons was appointed to draft the constitution. The appointment of the
committee on October 18 is being hailed by the Burmese junta as another
important step on the seven-stage road map.

Usually, pro-junta rallies only occur in Rangoon at football stadiums or
in certain public places. However, this time the authorities forced
residents to walk in the streets with the protests, said the sources.

Among the nine townships at which rallies were held, four were in Dagon
Myo Thit Township, a notoriously poor neighborhood built in 1989 in the
suburbs of the city after the junta’s brutal crackdown on the 1988
uprising. Hundreds of thousands of people in central Rangoon were forced
to relocate to Dagon Myo Thit by the junta as a punishment for supporting
the pro-democracy demonstrations and as a tactic to prevent another
popular uprising.

____________________________________

October 29, Oxford Analytica via Forbes.com

Fear limits internet use In Myanmar

Continuing diffusion of Internet-enabled devices has profound implications
for the possibilities of critical public debate and discussion, even in
repressive countries such as Myanmar, where less than 1% of the population
has access to the Internet. The speed at which news of the pro-democracy
demonstrations (and the ruling junta's response) reached the outside world
is in stark contrast to previous mass demonstrations, such as those that
took place in 1988, when news of over 3,000 deaths took days to reach
diplomats and international news agencies.

The current prevalence of video-enabled mobile phones, cameras, laptops
and similar devices meant that a much wider array of "networked
observers"--comprising not only activists and journalists, but also
citizens and tourists--recorded demonstrations in Myanmar:

--Pictures, footage and commentaries about demonstrations (including
evidence of deaths) found their way to international news agencies via the
Internet within hours.

--The flood of material the Internet has opened also raises problems for
mainstream media--not least how to use and piece together, in an accurate
and credible fashion, numerous reports from the front line of unfolding
events.

The Internet complements and overlaps with existing forms of mass
communications, such as satellite television and radio broadcasts:

--News released onto the former quickly can filter into programming on the
latter.

--This was particularly significant in Myanmar, where most of the
population relies on media other than the Internet for news about events
inside the country; news from the Internet found its way into television
and radio broadcasts--notably those operated by the Democratic Voice of
Burma--which in turn, helped spark demonstrations in other towns across
Myanmar.

The rapid outflow of information from Myanmar prompted efforts from the
junta to shut down the Internet and related communications channels, such
as mobile phone networks. It was successful in causing a temporary
disruption of Internet and mobile phone traffic, thanks to its ownership
of key infrastructure (e.g. Internet servers and mobile phone towers) and
influence over operators of such infrastructure:

--The ruling State Peace and Development Council has developed a rigorous
system of Internet filtering, making Myanmar one of the most repressive
countries in the world according to the recent Open Net Initiative index
of Internet censorship.

--There have been reports that the junta has targeted specific Web sites
that are responsible for disseminating information about the regime.

Indeed, the emergence of distributed "bot nets" makes it possible for
repressive governments (or branches thereof) to unleash secretive attacks
on dissident sites and discussion boards. Ultimately, fear of surveillance
reprisals has served to limit the overall amount of Internet communication
in Myanmar, even during recent demonstrations.

To read an extended version of this article, log on to Oxford Analytica's
Web site.

Oxford Analytica is an independent strategic-consulting firm drawing on a
network of more than 1,000 scholar experts at Oxford and other leading
universities and research institutions around the world. For more
information, please visit www.oxan.com. To find out how to subscribe to
the firm's Daily Brief Service, click here.

http://www.forbes.com/2007/10/26/internet-myanmar-burma-cx-1029oxford_print.html

____________________________________

October 28, Associated Press
Burma junta denounces US as bully

Burma's military government stepped up its propaganda campaign against the
United States on Sunday, accusing Washington of inciting last month's
pro-democracy demonstrations in hopes of installing a puppet government.

Demonstrations that began Aug. 19 over high prices for fuel and consumer
goods grew into a broad-based movement for democratic reform that
attracted tens of thousands of people in Rangoon, the country's biggest
city.

Troops crushed the protests by shooting at demonstrators on Sept. 26-27
and arresting almost 3,000 protesters, including Buddhist monks. The
government said 10 people were killed, but dissident groups put the toll
at up to 200 and say thousands more people were arrested.

"Recent protests in the country were created by the loudmouthed bully,
using the exiled dissidents and traitors together with communists,
internal and external anti-government destructionists," said a commentary
Sunday in the Burma-language Myanmar Ahlin daily.

Burma state-media commonly uses the phrase "loudmouthed bully" without
naming the nation it is referring to, but in a context that clearly points
to the United States.

The author, who called himself Maung Pwint Lin — roughly meaning Mr.
Frankly Speaking — said the U.S. had tried to revive the mass uprisings of
1988 in Burma in connivance with "exiled dissidents and internal
axe-handles" in order to install a puppet government.

The commentary said the majority of people in Burma opposed the protests,
but a gullible minority came out on the streets, instigated by foreign
broadcasters such as the BBC and the U.S.-government funded Voice of
America and Radio Free Asia.

The crackdown has ignited worldwide anger, and international demands have
grown for the junta to release 62-year-old pro-democracy leader Aung San
Suu Kyi, a Nobel peace laureate, who is under house arrest.

The propaganda campaign includes billboard signs saying, "Those who rely
on America are axe-handles." Axe-handle is jargon used by the junta to
mean traitors or puppets.

Junta commentaries in the past have referred to the U.S. as "a super power
nation," but articles in the state-run media have recently begun naming
the U.S. and accusing it of instigating unrest.

Sunday's commentary said that although the United Nations and the
international community wanted the U.S. and its allies to withdraw from
Afghanistan and Iraq, the "neocolonialists" refused to leave these
countries even after they had installed puppet governments.

____________________________________
ON THE BORDER

October 29, Irrawaddy
Burmese exile media on alert after crackdown warning

A Burmese exile media organization in Bangkok has dropped its Web site
news service “temporarily,” amid reports of a crackdown on such operations
on Thai territory that carry material critical of Burma’s junta.

The reports surfaced last week and caused other exile media groups in
Bangkok, Chiang Mai and Mae Sot to lower their profile. There were
warnings of possible raids by Thai police and immigration authorities.

The Bangkok-based media organization that dropped its Web site news said
it had been asked by Thai authorities to close its office “temporarily”
starting from last Friday. A spokesman for the organization asked The
Irrawaddy not to identify it.

Since Friday, the organization’s Web site has been carrying a message
saying that “due to security and technical changes we are temporarily
stopping our internet page.” The organization is reported to be still
working on its printed edition.

The unnamed organization and several other Web sites and publications run
by Burmese exiles have played a key role in reporting on the brutal
suppression of September’s demonstrations.

They have come in for constant attack by the Burmese junta, along with
overseas-based targets such as the Burmese service of the BBC and the
Norway-based Democratic Voice of Burma.

Zin Lin, spokesman of Burma’s democratic government in exile, the National
Coalition Government of the Union of Burma, told The Irrawaddy that its
office in Bangkok had been warned by Thai authorities to adopt a “low
profile.”

The NCGUB office in Bangkok was still functioning, he said. The
headquarters of the government in exile are located in Washington DC.

“The Burmese state-media blamed the exile groups in Thailand for recent
mass protests,” said Zin Lin.

Myint Wai, of the Bangkok-based Thai Action Committee for Democracy in
Burma, told The Irrawaddy on Monday that his group is also vigilant in
view of the reports of a possible crackdown.

The TACDB’s operations are mainly focused on Burmese migrant workers, many
of whom have no legal documents.

Reports of a possible crackdown have also been circulating since Friday
among the several Burmese organizations and NGOs working in northern
Thailand’s Chiang Mai province.

Burmese officials are rumored to have asked Thai authorities to close some
offices linked to the September demonstrations in Burma. In the past, the
Burmese government has usually used a friendly channel to pressure Thai
authorities close to Burma to harass exiled Burmese.

A source at the Democratic Voice of Burma said the DVB’s office in Chiang
Mai was still operating but was taking a low profile.

Previously, some Thai officials occasionally acted in cooperation with the
Burmese regime, who complain that Thailand allows opposition groups to
operate and demand they  take action against Burmese pro-democracy
activists in the country.

In November 1995, Khit Pyaing, a Burmese-language news operation also
known as New Era was raided by Thai police, and a veteran journalist, Ye
Khaung, and his wife were arrested.

In October 2006, a Burmese stringer working for the Oslo-based DVB was
forced to leave his home in Ranong province, southern Thailand, after
voicing concern about his safety.

Previously, prominent human rights organizations, politicians and US
congressmen have reacted promptly when Thai officials raided Burmese
offices operating in Thailand.

During the administration of deposed Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra,
several offices in Sangklaburi were forced to shut down by Thai officials.
The crackdown prompted international outcry and condemnation.

The Irrawaddy has learned that US and western diplomats have also been
closely monitoring the situation and the safety of Burmese groups living
in Thailand.

____________________________________
BUSINESS / TRADE

October 29, Kachin News Group
Sycophant Kachin tycoon flees country

A well-known Kachin jade tycoon, Sutdu Yup Zau Hkawng, a sycophant of
Commander Maj-Gen Ohn Myint, has been forced to flee the country unable to
cope with the demands of the junta official.

Owner of Jadeland Co. Ltd. also called Jadeland Myanmar Co. Ltd. has run
away from the fields monitored by Kachin State's Commander Maj-Gen Ohn
Myint, a loyalist of Burma's ruling junta's supremo Sr-Gen Than Shwe, said
local Kachin sources.

Last Thursday, Sutdu Yup Zau Hkawng along with his second eldest son left
for Bangkok from Rangoon International Airport for his onward journey to
Japan, according to his family in Rangoon, former capital of the country.

Sutdu Yup Zau Hkawng who recently resigned from the president of Central
Kachin Cultural Office was a well-known in the Kachin community as 'The
tail of Commander Maj-Gen Ohn Myint' because he was always seen hanging
around with Maj-Gen Ohn Myint, whenever he toured Kachin State, sources
said.

Company workers from Myitkyina, capital of Kachin State, said the tycoon
has freed himself from vicious grip of Commander Maj-Gen Ohn Myint because
he was fed up.

The tycoon was also unhappy with Maj-Gen Ohn Myint because he had to spend
most of his time with him rather than on his business, the sources added.

Recently, Sutdu Yup Zau Hkawng's Jadeland Co. Ltd completed the first
round of reconstruction of over 76 mile-long Myitkyina-Bhamo highway
following an agreement the junta and the Kachin Independence Organization
(KIO).

Under the company's road and bridge construction division in Kachin State
, the KIO had granted log fields to the company since 2003. However the
contract between the Jadeland Co. Ltd. and the KIO expired last July,
according to KIO officials.

The Sutdu Yup Zau Hkawng's Jadeland Co. Ltd. had been steadily pressurized
to stop dealing with the KIO by the Commander Maj-Gen Ohn Myint, KIO
officials added.

Currently in Kachin State, the rumor is doing the rounds that the Maj-Gen
Ohn Myint has vowed to close down Sutdu Yup Zau Hkawng's Jadeland Co. Ltd.
by any means, according to eye witnesses.

____________________________________

October 29, Bloomberg
Chevron committed to Myanmar project, O'Reilly says - Christian
Schmollinger and Dinakar Sethuraman

Chevron Corp., the second-largest U.S. energy company, will keep its stake
in a natural gas project in Myanmar, defying calls to leave following a
crackdown on protesters by the country's ruling junta.

The people around the Yadana gas project and pipeline have benefited from
jobs and investments in health care and education, Chief Executive David
O'Reilly said today in an interview in Bangkok. The company may lose any
tax benefits from the project under a bill approved by a U.S.
congressional committee Oct. 23.

``Our commitment is to try to stay to be a positive influence,'' O'Reilly
said in an interview in Bangkok today. ``It isn't going to change anything
if we leave. We are a minority investor in this project.''

Chevron faces renewed calls to divest its 28.3 percent stake in the Total
SA-operated Yadana project after Myanmar's government last month crushed
the biggest anti-government protests in almost 20 years. The company may
be forced out of the country formerly known as Burma under legislation
from Sen. John McCain introduced on Oct. 17 that prohibits investments by
U.S. companies after sanctions passed in 1997.

The House Foreign Affairs Committee unanimously accepted legislation
introduced by Rep. Tom Lantos, a Democrat from California. The bill to
pressure Myanmar's military rulers states that no tax deductions will be
allowed for the ``joint production agreement'' for Yadana and prohibits
payments or property transfers to the government.

Gas Project

Chevron obtained the stake the Yadana and Sein offshore natural-gas fields
in the Andaman Sea through its 2005 purchase of Unocal Corp. The Yadana
project sells natural gas by pipeline to Thailand.

Thailand imported 26 percent of the 3.4 billion cubic feet a day of
natural gas it has consumed in 2007 from Myanmar, according to the Energy
Policy and Planning Office. Yadana provided a little more than half.
Thailand generated 66 percent of its electricity from the fuel through
August.

``One must remember that most of the gas from this production comes here
to Thailand to supply the electricity needs,'' said O'Reilly. ``If we
leave or are forced to leave, somebody else will step into our shoes and
the gas will continue to flow.''

A number of countries may buy up the Yadana stake should Chevron leave.
China, India, Japan and South Korea are competing for a share of Myanmar's
resources as more gas reserves are discovered. The country held about 19
trillion cubic feet of reserves last year, BP Plc said in its annual
energy report.

``Indian and Chinese companies are waiting to get in if there is an
opportunity,'' said Tony Regan, a consultant with Nexant Ltd. in
Singapore. ``The international companies will hold on unless there is
considerable pressure.''

Chevron Disclose

Prior to its merger with Chevron, Texaco Inc. divested from Myanmar in
1997 after protests by human-rights activists. Texaco sold a stake in the
Yetagun gas project in Myanmar to Premier Oil Plc before the asset was
acquired by Malaysia's Petroliam Nasional Bhd. in a share and asset swap.

Chevron should disclose more of how it does business and explain how it
takes responsibility for human right abuses in Myanmar, the Church of
Sweden, which owns shares in the second- biggest U.S. oil producer, said
Oct. 18.

``Together with other shareholders the Church of Sweden will, among other
things, demand that Chevron clearly shows how its business affects Burma's
people,'' said the church, which owns Chevron stock.

Consumer groups in the U.S. have urged the company to divest its business
in Myanmar, formerly known as Burma. Security forces last month clubbed
and shot at demonstrators, and at least 30 people were killed, the
Australian government has said.

The Church of Sweden, which has about 7 million members, severed ties with
the government in 2000.

To contact the reporter on this story: Christian Schmollinger in Singapore
at christian.s at bloomberg.net ; Dinakar Sethuraman in Singapore at
dinakar at bloomberg.net

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=af5nJR1ZA5Uo&refer=home#

____________________________________
HEALTH / AIDS

October 29, Irrawaddy
Junta bans news of bird flu outbreak - Shah Paung

The military government's censorship board in Burma has banned some media
from publishing news about a new bird flu outbreak which was confirmed on
October 20, according to a journalist who requested anonymity.

A journalist in Rangoon told The Irrawaddy on Monday that the junta’s
Press Scrutiny and Registration Board censored a story reporting
information about a confirmed H5N1 bird flu outbreak on a farm in
Thanatpin Township in Pegu Division, about 80 km north of Rangoon. The
story would have been distributed on Monday.

The latest H5N1 bird flu outbreak was reported to the OIE-World
Organization for Animals on October 24 by the regime's Livestock Breeding
and Veterinary Department, according to the OIE Web site. The report was
submitted by Maung Maung Nyunt, the director general of the LBVD.

The OIE Web site said tests by the Rangoon Veterinary Diagnostic
Laboratory confirmed on October 20 that the fowl died of the H5N1 virus.

The Burmese report sent to the OIE said the bird flu outbreak killed 400
chickens and ducks. The authorities reportedly killed 33,459 fowl to try
to contain the virus.

A local resident contacted by The Irrawaddy said the owners of the fowl
were not compensated.

In late July, there was a bird flu outbreak in Mon State in southern
Burma. At that time, the H5N1 virus was found in two poultry farms in
Thanpyuzayat Township.

According to the Livestock Breeding and Veterinary Department, more than
100,000 fowl have been destroyed in Burma since 2003 in an effort to
contain the H5N1 virus.

Since the bird flu virus outbreak in 2003, there has been no reported case
of a human contracting bird flu in Burma. In October, the World Heath
Organization reported the virus has killed 201 people worldwide.

____________________________________
ASEAN

October 29, Agence France Presse
ASEAN, EU to work together on Myanmar

ASEAN and the European Union will work to strengthen the UN special
envoy's mission to bring about democratic changes in Myanmar, the
Singaporean and French foreign ministers said Monday.

Despite differences over sanctions on the military-ruled nation, both
groupings said they would support the efforts of envoy Ibrahim Gambari in
Myanmar, Foreign Minister George Yeo and visiting French Foreign Minister
Bernard Kouchner said.

"I asked for European support, for French support. I was very happy to
receive a very positive response from Minister Kouchner," Yeo told
reporters after a meeting.

Singapore is the current chair of the Association of Southeast Asian
Nations and will host a summit next month during which Myanmar is expected
to be the main agenda.

Yeo acknowledged differences between the EU and ASEAN over the
effectiveness of sanctions on Myanmar.

"Of course Europe has its own values and Europe must take a strong
position consonant with its own value system," Yeo said.

"We respect that, but I believe we can work together to strengthen
Gambari's hand so that he can do the catalytic work of helping to bring
about national reconciliation in Myanmar."

EU foreign ministers on October 15 approved new sanctions against the
Myanmar regime, including an embargo on the export of wood, gems and
metals following last month's crackdown on pro-democracy protesters that
left at least 13 people dead and thousands imprisoned.

The EU already has broad sanctions in place against Myanmar's leadership
and their families -- with 375 people on a visa-ban, asset-freeze list.

Further measures up to an all-out ban on new investments may also be
considered.

"On Burma we must support and give our best ideas and be with Ibrahim
Gambari," Kouchner said after the meeting with Yeo. "But we also have to
think about new ideas."

Kouchner, speaking to the Foreign Correspondents Association earlier
Monday, proposed an international fund to provide economic aid to Myanmar,
saying incentives as well as sanctions were needed to bring about change.

Both Kouchner and Yeo held meetings with Gambari, who was in Singapore on
Monday after completing his six-nation Asian consultation tour ahead of
his return to Myanmar next month.

____________________________________
REGIONAL

October 29, Mizzima News
Singapore pursues policy, not regime change

Singapore has reaffirmed that its priorities in Burma, in alignment with
those of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), are stability
and policy change, and not the ousting of the military regime.

Speaking to reporters in Tokyo following meetings with both Japanese and
Chinese officials, on Saturday and Friday, respectively, Singapore's
Foreign Minister, George Yeo, said he believes his country's approach to
confronting the situation inside Burma is consistent with both ASEAN and
United Nations initiatives.

"If nothing is done, the situation is potentially explosive, therefore we
should work together to help the Myanmar people and embark on fresh
approach to national reconciliation," stated Yeo on Saturday.

Yeo described China's role in the current crisis as "helpful" and spoke of
Japan's continuing stated interest in a pro-engagement policy with the
junta, despite the shooting of a Japanese citizen during the height of the
recent crackdown on September 27th.

With the ASEAN summit set to kick off in Singapore on the 18th of
November, Yeo said it is vital that positive changes and dialogue are
immediately undertaken inside Burma, as it is not in the interest of ASEAN
to have the summit dominated by the ongoing situation in Burma, there
existing several other important matters that the organization is also to
address at that time.

Singapore currently occupies the chair for ASEAN, a position it will hold
till July of next year.

Meanwhile United Nations Special Adviser to Burma, Ibrahim Gambari, is to
meet with Yeo today in Singapore ahead of his visit to Burma scheduled to
follow shortly thereafter.

Gambari himself has just concluded talks with leaders in China and Japan,
as well as other regional countries, regarding recent events and the
situation in Burma. Each government voiced their support for the
continuing efforts of Gambari through the use of the Secretary General's
good offices.

In a report released at the end of last week by United Nations Secretary
General Ban Ki-moon on Burma, the Secretary General, framing the current
atmosphere as a window of hope, said the military regime "should seize the
opportunity to take bold actions towards democratization and respect for
human rights," according to Michele Montas, spokesperson for the Secretary
General.

____________________________________

October 29, Mizzima News
Taiwan to work for democracy in Burma

Taiwan will establish a task force under its representative office in
Thailand to provide help to the people of Burma in their striving for
democracy, according to the Taipei Times.

The Taiwanese Foreign Ministry said in a press release that one of the
task force's main functions would be to observe the political situation in
Burma.

Vice President Annette Lu said the decision to defend freedom and
democracy in Burma has been positively received.

The task force is also commissioned to join efforts to promote regional
stability, safety and prosperity, the release said.

"Taiwan sees Burma as threatening regional stability and is concerned that
stability will be further negatively affected, because of Burma, as
regional economies become more closely tied together," said Nyo Ohn Myint,
a pro-democracy Burmese leader who is known to consult with the Chinese
government.

Nyo Ohn Myint, a former bodyguard to Burma's detained opposition leader
Aung San Suu Kyi, recently visited Taiwan to seek support from the Taiwan
government.

"As per the One China policy, China will dislike Taiwan's attitude on
Burma. However, despite our approaching Taiwan with a political agenda, we
are not working against the One China policy," he added.

Taiwanese businesses import jade and teak from Burma although there is no
diplomatic relation between Taiwan and Burma.

This is the first time Taiwan has reacted to the situation in Burma, where
a violent crackdown on pro-democracy activists occurred last month.

____________________________________
INTERNATIONAL

October 29, Mizzima News
Burmese Americans question US on sanctions policy

In a revealing letter to the US Chargé d'Affaires in Rangoon, a group of
Burmese Americans have urged the United States to investigate how despite
the sanctions imposed on Burmese generals, several of their family members
and close associates are travelling freely to the US.

The Burmese American citizens, in a letter to the US embassy in Rangoon,
with a copy to the US State Department, mentioned names of several Burma's
ruling generals and their business associates including tycoon Tayza, of
possessing visas or living in the US and undertaking financial
transactions.

The group, which cannot be contacted, in the letter sent on October 28
said, several family members of the ruling generals and their associates
are living in the US and are helping the generals transfer money for
businesses through their bank accounts.

Besides, a few generals are stated to have visited the US despite a ban on
travel imposed on them, said the group.

"The fact is that they all had visas issued by the US embassy in Rangoon
," the group said in the letter.

US President, George W. Bush, on October 19 added 11 more Burmese generals
to its ban list. The US sanctions, started since 1997 and were tightened
by President Bush in 2003, includes freezing of financial assets and visa
restrictions on the ruling Burmese generals and their associates.

Questioning the US on its policy on sanctions on Burma, the group said,
"It undermines the credibility of the US government and its own policy."

Meanwhile, an email message, supposedly from Htet Tayza, son of Burmese
business tycoon Tayza, doing the rounds among the Burmese community in
exile, said the US sanctions against Burma and particularly on the ruling
generals and their associate has had little impact on them as they control
the economy of Burma.

While the authenticity of the email message cannot be proved, Htet Tayza
in the message said, "US bans us? Lol we are still cool in Singapore.
We're sitting on the whole Burmese GDP (Gross Domestic Product). We've got
timber, gems and gas to be sold to countries like Singapore, China, India
and Russia."

However, business tycoon Tayza, Burmese junta head Snr. General Than
Shwe's right-hand man, was forced to suspend his Air Bagan flights to
Singapore as insurers stopped dealing with the company following the US
and European Union's extension of sanctions on the Burmese generals as a
response to the brutal crackdown on monk-led peaceful demonstrations in
September

____________________________________

October 29, Associated Press
French FM says sanctions against Myanmar should be coupled with incentives

Sanctions against Myanmar's junta for cracking down on democracy
protesters should be coupled with incentives to encourage the regime to
work for national reconciliation, France's foreign minister said Monday.

The European Union and the United States have pressed for expanded
sanctions against Myanmar in recent weeks, after the junta arrested
thousands of people following pro-democracy protests, shooting dead at
least 10.

"Do we believe that (the sanctions) will be enough? No. Will it be useful?
I hope so," French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner said before meeting
with Singaporean officials.

"But we also have to work on the political offer, and on incentives for
the Burmese people to be part of." Myanmar is also known as Burma.

Kouchner noted the European Union earlier this month agreed to expand
sanctions against Myanmar, banning imports of timber, gemstones and
precious metals in response to the junta's crackdown on pro-democracy
groups. The EU is holding off applying them to give U.N. mediators more
time to sway the military leaders to start talks with pro-democracy
groups.

The French minister's Singapore visit coincides with one by the U.N.'s
special envoy on Myanmar, Ibrahim Gambari, at the end of his six-nation
Asian tour to drum up international pressure on Myanmar to end its
crackdown. Gambari met Singaporean Foreign Minister George Yeo and they
had "a good exchange of views on the Myanmar situation," a Foreign
Ministry statement said.

Gambari and Kouchner also met Monday afternoon, but no details of the
discussions were immediately available.

As an incentive for the regime to work for national reconciliation in
Myanmar, an international trust fund could be set up for development
projects, Kouchner said.

"We have to offer them a perspective of development," Kouchner said during
a lunch at the Foreign Correspondents Association in Singapore.

Kouchner said the fund, which he envisaged as being overseen by the World
Bank and the U.N., would provide "micro-credit at the level of the state"
to create opportunities for the development of Myanmar's trade and
industry, among other projects.

Kouchner cited as an example the World Bank trust fund that was set up in
2000 for war-devastated Kosovo, where he worked as chief U.N.
administrator to coordinate reconstruction and peace efforts.

He did not give a target sum for a Myanmar fund, but said British Foreign
Minister David Miliband was also in favor of it and they would be seeking
the support of the EU, the U.S., Japan, and Southeast Asian countries.

Kouchner is visiting the region to discuss Myanmar with some of its
closest neighbors and trading partners. He will travel to Singapore,
Thailand and China.

Kouchner said he asked Singapore to consider imposing sanctions against
Myanmar's regime.

But Yeo said Southeast Asian countries do not believe that sanctions work.

"What is important is whatever measures we take should assist Gambari and
not make his work more difficult," Yeo said.

____________________________________
OPINION / OTHER

October 26, YaleGlobal
The next steps for Burma - Amitav Acharya

The international community, including ASEAN, must press for a contact
group and a truth commission

BRISTOL: The saffron uprising in Burma made two things clear:

First, the Burmese junta wields enough power to overwhelmingly crush its
opponents. It cares little about the worldwide revulsion against
repression of peaceful protests, generated by the Citizen, Internet and
Mobile (CIM) effect, which now powerfully complements the CNN effect.

Second, Asian nations have little fondness for the "responsibility to
protect" idea, an evolving principle that calls for international action
to protect civilians from being attacked and killed by their own
government even if the conflict did not spill over to become a "threat to
international peace and security."

During the UN Security Council debate on Burma on 5 October, it was
striking to see the representatives of China and Burma singing a duet.
According to a summary transcript of the debate, Chinese representative
Wang Guangya insisted that "the situation was already calming down; the
current situation did not pose any threat to international or regional
peace and security." The Burmese representative, U Kyaw Tint Swe,
parroted: "the situation has returned to normal; the situation was not a
threat either to regional or international peace and security."

While the Chinese counseled that "the future lay in the hands of the
people and Government of Myanmar," and hence "outside pressure would not
help address the problem, but might lead to mistrust and confrontation,"
his Burmese comrade insisted: "challenges in the country must be met by
the people themselves" and therefore the Security Council "should refrain
from any action that would be detrimental." Read: Foreigners keep out.
This was a cruel and cynical choice of words, implying the uprising
against the regime was not a willing act of the people of Burma
themselves.

The international community should not be lulled into complacency by such
self-serving rhetoric. The sad end of the saffron uprising, brought about
not by compromise but by repression, offers a window of opportunity that
the international community must seize. The world should finally wake up
to the fact that Burma's suffering under its military dictatorship can no
longer be swept under the carpet. If the sacrifices of the monks and other
brave citizens of Burma are not to be in vain, the momentum of
international pressure must continue.

While reporting to the Security Council on his mission to Burma during the
5 October session, UN Special Envoy Ibrahim Gambari recommended two steps:
1) prodding the Burmese junta to "engage in an all-inclusive,
participatory and transparent" process of consultations to broaden the
constitution-drafting national convention that was boycotted by the
opposition and resulted in a draft constitution that guarantees permanent
military domination of the political system, and 2) the creation of a
poverty-alleviation commission involving UN agencies to carry out
humanitarian action.

These proposals, while useful, will not suffice. As the Western nations
participating in the Security Council debate, including the US and the UK,
pointed out, the immediate release of all protesters and political
prisoners, including but not limited to Aung San Suu Kyi, is vital to
determining the sincerity of the Burmese junta. The junta has offered to
talk to her, albeit if she stops her "obstructive and confrontational
stance," including her calls for international sanctions against the
regime. But in the absence of other concerted measures by the
international community, there is every danger that the junta will
marginalize her from the political process and cement its monopoly on
power.

Two steps are crucial: The first is the creation of an international
contact group on Burma at the UN. This author's last commentary on Burma
in YaleGlobal in 2005 – "Democracy in Burma: Does Anybody Really Care?" –
suggested the creation of a process akin to the six-party talks in North
Korea. Thailand's Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont made a similar
suggestion to Gambari when the latter visited him on 15 October. Such a
group should comprise China, India, Japan, the European Union, the US and
Singapore as the current the chair of the Association of Southeast Asian
Nations (ASEAN). In the 5 October Security Council debate, the absence of
Japan and India was conspicuous. The purpose of this six-party contact
group would be to carry out formal and informal consultations with the
regime to stop further repression, prod it to open dialogue with Suu Kyi
and reopen the national convention with opposition participation to create
a genuinely democratic constitution that upholds civilian control over the
military.

It would also have the function of applying peer pressure on Burma's two
powerful neighbors, China and India, even though Indian support for the
regime was a reactive response to China's vigorous influence-seeking in
Burma in the first place. Both India and China have offered an economic
and political lifeline to the regime, thereby sustaining its repressive
apparatus.

The second step should be an in-principle agreement by the international
community to create a Truth and Reconciliation Commission for Burma. Such
commissions are usually created after the regime accused of human-rights
abuses is ousted from power. But in this case, agreement to create such a
commission could have a salutary effect in preventing further violence
against civilians by regime forces. Following the South African model, the
commission could dangle amnesty before military officials not directly
involved in committing atrocities. This would induce officers to disobey
future orders to carry out violent repression and encourage those military
and political leadership factions who are sympathetic to liberalization –
especially in view of reports that some officers refused to carry out
orders to attack protestors in the recent uprising.

In the meantime, ASEAN should resist any temptation to suspend or expel
Burma from membership for the time being. I advocated such a move in the
past (as reported by Peter Kammerer, "Suspend Yangon, Asean Urged: Scholar
Says Alliance Must Press Junta to Reform," the South China Morning Post,
23 October 2004). But doing so now would be ill-advised, as it would allow
the junta to retreat into a convenient posture of isolationism.

It will also look ridiculous if ASEAN moves from one extreme – shielding
the junta from international sanctions through its "constructive
engagement" policy – to another by suspending its membership, especially
since ASEAN failed to impose any preconditions of political reform when it
allowed Burma to join the association in 1997.

ASEAN has earned some international respect by expressing "revulsion" at
the junta's violent repression of the peaceful uprising. By keeping Burma
as an active member, ASEAN would call the junta's bluff now that the
latter has pledged to engage in dialogue with the opposition, and
"cooperate with the United Nations." As long as Burma remains a member,
ASEAN should use every opportunity afforded by the intra-ASEAN meetings,
which number in the hundreds each year, to persuade the junta to move
towards democratization. This way, ASEAN will retain a say over Burma's
political direction instead of allowing it to pass to outside nations.
This is not "constructive engagement," which was in essence all
"construction" of hotels and factories in Burma by Thai, Singaporean and
Malaysia companies, with no "engagement," or dialogue with the regime on
political reform.

If ASEAN's constant reminders on political reform prove to be too much for
the junta and it pulls out of ASEAN on its own, then well and good. Such
an outcome may be less preferable than changing the junta's mindset, but
could enhance ASEAN credibility, paving the way for future sanctions. In
the meantime, as some commentators have suggested, ASEAN members should,
at the very least, snub the senior junta leaders by denying them and their
families VIP treatment at their shopping centers and medical facilities.

Amitav Acharya is professor of Global Governance at the University of
Bristol and director of its Governance Research Centre.

____________________________________

October 29, Irrawaddy
A meaningful dialogue needs courage - Htet Aung

Burma's current situation presents an unambiguous demand for structural
political change to save its people from the economic whirlpool.

This fact is not based on political theories nor on predictions, but on
the socio-economic decline leading to the Buddhist monks-led September
uprising.

Snr-Gen Than Shwe and his generals appear to recognize this and have begun
very slow but inevitable steps to engage the country's democracy icon Aung
San Suu Kyi, in the midst of mounting international pressure.

As a military general, Than Shwe needs courage to accept the reality of
the country's general failure under his rule. He has to draw on courage to
recognize Suu Kyi and her role in the future politics of the country, and
to work together with the democratic forces, including the National League
for Democracy and ethnic political parties.

A good example is provided by the process of reconciliation in
post-apartheid South Africa. The leaders of two diametrically opposed
hostile camps, Nelson Mandela and F W de Klerk were honored by the
international community and shared the Nobel Peace Prize in 1993.

Despite the racist policies and human rights abuses of his government, de
Klerk regained a position of dignity within South Africa and in
international politics. He achieved rehabilitation through his deeds—an
example the Burmese generals should take by holding a meaningful dialogue
with Suu Kyi.

The good will and courage shown by de Klerk helped lead his country from
turmoil to peace. Than Shwe needs such will and courage.

The formation of the first multiracial government of the post-apartheid
era in South Africa showed the importance of true reconciliation and
peaceful coexistence between the black and white people of that country.

De Klerk accepted the post of vice president, while Mandela led the new
government as president—a previously unimaginable pairing. Their two
political parties shared ministerial positions fairly.

Than Shwe and his generals need to seek a way to work together with
opposition political parties in this way.

After many years of confrontation and enmity, the two divided populations
of South Africa came together to rebuild their country. Why can't Burmese
military leaders walk such a noble path?

The economic and other sanctions imposed by the United States, EU and,
most recently, Australia are sure to be lifted when Than Shwe shows the
world tangible political progress, of which the first step will be the
release of all political prisoners.

This first step is what Suu Kyi as well as the international community
want to see as an indicator of a genuine meaningful dialogue. The generals
can catch two birds with one stone. They are in a win-win situation, as
the state-run media made clear recently.

Their one-sided command of the game is now effectively over. Twenty years
is more than enough time for a government to prove tangible results of
progress in the country’s economic and social sectors. In a normal
democracy, this period of time would cover three successive
administrations.

The only possible progress the regime can show for its 20 years in power
is confined to just two sectors—transportation and irrigation. Roads,
bridges and dams have been built, but at a big cost to the population in
terms of human rights violations, forced labor and the displacement of
entire communities.

It’s certainly time for the Burmese regime to admit the failure of its
economic and social policies. The generals can't hide their "failed
governance" any longer. But it can be amended if they, like de Klerk, have
the courage to face reality.

Suu Kyi once said: "The only real prison is fear, and the only real
freedom is freedom from fear." South Africa's Mandela expressed a similar
sentiment when he wrote: "The brave man is not he who does not feel
afraid, but he who conquers that fear."

Soldiers are never afraid to kill their enemy, but they fear to lose the
battle. At the present time, the enemy of the generals is their fear
itself, and they need to overcome it if they want to survive the battle.

____________________________________

October 29, The Nation
Time for Thailand to revisit its policy on Burma - Kavi Chongkittavorn

The Burmese crisis coupled with increased international pressure and UN
efforts have shaken Thailand's policy towards Burma to the core.

Successive Thai governments have for years failed to correctly gauge the
internal situation in Burma and face up to the reality.

Following the first brutal crackdown on democratic forces in 1988,
Thailand has taken it for granted that the Burmese junta would last
forever and, worse, adopted the attitude that nothing can be done about
it. Some even referred to historical experience and empathy that goes back
over four centuries.

Unfortunately, over the past two decades Thailand has also become
increasingly dependant on natural gas from Burma due to high local demand
for electricity and the long-standing desire to diversify its energy
sources. On top of that, the focus on economic security across the border
has rendered Thailand toothless towards Burma.

Every time there is a response needed on Burma, Thai policy-makers,
especially those in the Foreign Ministry, have been timid and said that
Burma would not be affected by any policy approach or initiative,
therefore it was essential to maintain the status quo through passive
engagement with the Burmese junta.

These twin objectives have stymied effective Thai policy towards Burma.
Thailand remained ambivalent even at the height of the military's brutal
crackdown on monks last month, even though it was clear the internal
situation in Burma was worsening. Bangkok failed to make its voice heard.
The most ridiculous views expressed on the issue have come from Thai
military leaders regarding the Burmese military's actions.

As Bangkok comes to grips with the Burmese reality, three areas of
consensus have emerged within the region and the international community.
First, there is a strong sense of revulsion towards the use of lethal
weapons against monks. Second, a peaceful transition and national
reconciliation are desired - not a regime change. Lastly, the UN is seen
as the only appropriate body for dealing with the Burmese crisis.

By taking the lead in the effort, the UN is helping to underscore the
point that the Burmese crisis is no longer an internal issue, a contention
the junta and many countries have argued and supported, and does have
direct repercussions on security and stability in the region. In fact,
Thailand has been the country most affected by political oppression inside
Burma.

Thailand still entertains the idea that it can balance its national
interests with growing international pressure. Senior officials from the
Foreign Ministry and the country's security apparatus argue that keeping
the Thailand-Burma border free of trouble is their top priority. Some of
them even credited the Burmese side for maintaining border trade and a
business-as-usual attitude over the past month. They pointed out that this
time Rangoon's leaders did not shut down trade at the border as they have
done in the past.

Such rationalising automatically kept the officials dealing with Burma
from taking any initiative or thinking outside the box. Since 2001 this
approach has become a self-fulfilling prophecy due to the government's
strong support of the Burmese region. In addition, vested personal
interests, epitomised by those of deposed premier Thaksin Shinawatra and
his business empire which ironically still continue today, have prevented
them from formulating foreign policy that would general genuinely serve
the national interest.

The biggest disappointment has come from Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont,
who has not heeded the international outcry for concrete action. Following
Asean's statement condemning the Burmese junta for using lethal weapons
against monks and civilians, the premier had the audacity to write a
letter to General Than Shwe expressing solidarity with him and stressing
that he was speaking as one soldier to another. That was a shameful
gesture from a leader who claims to be democratic. Such hypocrisy at the
personal level has further hampered Thai diplomacy on Burma.

Without a clear position from Thailand, other Asean countries have tried
to take charge in their own way. Singapore, as the Asean chair, was more
vocal than others for obvious reasons. In the context of Asean diplomacy,
the absence of a clear position from a frontline state means the grouping
cannot do much.

The saddest part is that the Foreign Ministry seems to be fixated on the
belief that Thailand's policy on Burma can never be changed even though
there is a marked change in the international context. Countries such as
Japan, Australia and particularly China were far more pragmatic as they
incrementally shifted their positions on Burma to be more in tune with
international sentiment.

It is inevitable that in the weeks and months ahead there will be more
specific financial and banking sanctions, which will affect Thailand's
economic ties with Burma. By then it will be too late for Thailand to come
up with any policy initiative that will mitigate a negative outcome.

Eventually the Thai people and the government will have to explain why
they did not pay any attention to the democratic aspirations of the
Burmese people. This could be sooner rather than later.

____________________________________

October 29, Financial Times
Battle to beat Burma junta's siege mentality - Amy Kazmin

The biggest obstacle to achieving progress on reforms is the generals'
fear and suspicion of the outside world.

Watching televised images of maroon-robed Buddhist monks and civilians
marching through the dilapidated streets of Rangoon last month, most of
the world saw a spontaneous expression of an oppressed and impoverished
people's heart-felt desire for change.

Not Burma's military rulers, though. When government ministers met UN
envoy Ibrahim Gambari immediately after their crackdown on the protesters,
Brigadier-General Kyaw Hsan, the information minister, depicted the
dramatic marches as the work of agitators "provided with cash ... and
directed by the intelligence organisation of a big power".

In a presentation prepared for Mr Gambari's visit and obtained by the
Financial Times, the minister called the protesting monks primarily "
bogus monks, who got their heads shaved and wore monks' robes temporarily"
engaged in a plot to derail the generals' own political reform process.

Such seemingly far-fetched claims may not sound convincing to a world
appalled by the regime's bloody suppression of non-violent protests. But
they make perfect sense to Burma's ruling generals, who, caught in a time
after 40 years of isolation, often interpret events through a
post-colonial filter featuring a hostile outside world filled with enemies
intent on subjugating the country.

"They haven't moved on from that scar that colonialism left in many
societies," says Morten Pedersen, the formerly Rangoon-based author of
Promoting Human Rights in Burma. "They have been living in their own
little cocoon, facing real threats as they perceive it, and that has
reinforced these age-old fears and prejudices."

In the decades after independence from Britain, Burma was beset by
multiple ethnic and Communist insurgencies, many of which were
foreign-backed. Battling to hold the country together, the army grew
obsessed with national security, suspicious of civilian politicians, and
wary of other countries' motivations.

Overcoming that entrenched mindset poses one of the biggest challenges to
Mr Gambari as he now tours Asia to co-ordinate regional efforts to push
the generals into a dialogue with their political opponents. Mr Gambari is
appealing for countries to offer incentives, such as aid to alleviate
social hardships, for genuine progress on reform.

"He has to figure out how to convince them that locking the doors of the
bunker is neither the best response, nor even a sustainable response, to
the problems Burma is facing," says one UN official. Given the generals'
mistrust of outsiders, says Mr Pedersen, "the only way you can get them to
do anything is to persuade them it is in their self-interest."

The New Light of Myanmar, the regime's official mouthpiece, offers
glimmers of insight into the generals' mental world. It offers daily
invective against "internal and external destructive elements" in league
with world powers bent on undermining the progress of "a nation in the
process of transforming itself into a peaceful, modern, democratic country
with flourishing discipline".

Since the protests, it has spewed intense vitriol towards traitorous
"axe-handles and lackeys of the colonialists," as well as the "killers of
the airwaves" - its terms for overseas Burmese-language radio broadcasts -
that it blames for instigating the demonstrations. (Axe-handle is a
traditional Burmese metaphor for traitor, as an axe-handle - made of wood
- helps cut down a tree.)

Some critics argue Burma's top generals do not really believe their own
propaganda and use it to both deflect outside pressure and keep a
400,000-man army in line. "By promoting these paranoid interpretations of
events, they are able to justify some of their actions to others below
them in the hierarchy," says a UN official.

Yet historian Thant Myint-U, author of The River of Lost Footsteps:
Histories of Burma, says the generals' siege mentality has genuine
historical roots and should not be dismissed. "Any diplomacy that doesn't
take into account the world view of the generals is not going to get very
far," he says.

____________________________________

October 29, Forbes
The Sanctions Myth - Matthew Swibel and Soyoung Ho

The pols want to isolate Burma in order to change it. Maybe there's a
better way.

Would tougher economic sanctions against burma work? Probably not, if
history is a guide. A study by the Peterson Institute for International
Economics, a Washington, D.C. think tank, says unilateral efforts to choke
off investment, trade and the like succeed in maybe one in five cases.
Most attempts fail and end up hurting innocent people, rallying support
for dictators (as in Haiti, Serbia, Syria and Iran) and resulting in
unintended consequences, like the oil-for-food scandal in Saddam's Iraq.
It's hard to recall a case where sanctions by themselves have brought down
an evil regime. The chronic reluctance of China and Russia doesn't help.

Turning up the heat on Burma (a.k.a. Myanmar)--targeting existing and not
just new investments--may slightly scorch the regime, which profits from
vast resources like natural gas reserves. But it would take little for
either China or India to pick up the slack from, say, Chevron. Chevron is
a 28% partner with France's Total in piping 630 million cubic feet of
natural gas annually from an offshore field to Thailand. Is it any wonder
why India's external affairs minister recently remarked that sanctions
should be "the last resort"?

Booting Chevron out of Burma would provide an immediate windfall for the
military junta. Little known fact: If Chevron leaves, it has to pay $300
million to $500 million, depending on the current spot price of oil, in
deferred capital gains taxes to Burma's inaptly named State Peace &
Development Council. (Chevron hasn't yet shared this detail of its
contract with its shareholders, perhaps on the theory that the amount is
small in relation to its $17 billion net income.)

Some Burma watchers argue that a stronger corporate presence there can
help. Chevron's funding of nonprofit organizations, says Frances Zwenig of
the U.S. Asean Business Council, has helped reduce cases of malaria, AIDS
and child mortality in Burma. The company has also underwritten new
hospitals, nursing staffs and screens to ward off malaria-infested
mosquitoes and floated small loans to pig farmers, construction firms and
other businesses.

"I think Burma would regress still faster into the Middle Ages if all the
foreign companies departed," says Gary Hufbauer of the Peterson Institute.
The key is to offer "an alternate form of livelihood for people, aside
from scratching a living from the government or the black market," adds
Dana R. Dillon, senior Asian studies analyst at the Heritage Foundation.

The wonks aren't alone. It was Nelson Mandela who later thanked
Anglo-Dutch Shell and British Petroleum for staying on in South Africa
under apartheid and--despite onerous sanctions that delivered mixed
results--for encouraging trade unions and training South Africans of any
color.