BurmaNet News, December 5, 2007

[Editor]

December 5, 2007 Issue # 3357

INSIDE BURMA
AFP: Chased from streets, Myanmar monks get out message on video
DVB: Opposition groups slam regime’s defiance
DVB: Monk leader U Gambira’s father released
Mizzima News: ABYMU tells junta to stop arresting monks, sealing monasteries
IBN Live: Inside Myanmar: Buddhism holds activists together
Narinjara News: 20 Kyat currency notes with anti-junta writing in Sittwe
Jakarta Post: Child soldiers a problem in Myanmar
Kachin News Group: Body of Chinese inspector found near Myitsone

BUSINESS / TRADE
ABC Radio Australia: Calls for financial sanctions on Burma's military
Mizzima News: Post-crisis economic fallout in Burma
Reuters: Daewoo says China preferred bidder for Myanmar gas

REGIONAL
AP: Cambodian prime minister says sanctions against Myanmar will be futile

INTERNATIONAL
PR Newswire: University of San Francisco to honor Buddhist monks who
fought for democracy
Bloomberg: U.S. condemns Myanmar excluding Suu Kyi from democracy talks
BBC Burmese Service: Burma among housing rights violators
BBC Burmese Service: Expulsion of UN top diplomat is misunderstanding
Christian Freedom International: Michigan community steps forward to
support Burma’s refugees

____________________________________
INSIDE BURMA

December 5, Agence France Presse
Chased from streets, Myanmar monks get out message on video - Mony Chris

A young monk whispers to street vendors in the hope of finding the hottest
contraband in Yangon -- video recordings of religious sermons by two of
Myanmar's most respected Buddhist leaders.

"I don't dare to sell those VCDs. I'm afraid I'd be arrested. You can ask
at the shop over there," one woman tells him, pointing him to a nearby
vendor.

The next shopkeeper glances around and then reaches into his shoulder bag
to pull out the illegal disc, which shows a series of sermons and parables
that Buddhists here interpret as sharp criticism of the ruling military
junta.

Buddhist monks were at the forefront of pro-democracy protests in
September, which were the biggest threat to military rules in nearly two
decades.

Soldiers and police stamped out the demonstrations with a bloody crackdown
that left at least 15 dead and 3,000 injured.

Now many monasteries are empty as the monks fled persecution by seeking
shelter in villages or by taking off their robes and hiding among the
general population.

For residents of Yangon, Myanmar's main city and former capital, the
disappearance of the monks has profoundly disrupted their daily lives.

Buddhism is the state religion, followed by about 90 percent of Myanmar's
54 million people who every day are in the habit of offering alms, mostly
food, to monks who roam the streets from dawn.

There are about 500,000 monks in Myanmar, according to the government. Of
these, some 300,000 or 60 percent of the total live in Mandalay, the
second largest city.

Boys older than five years old enter monasteries for at least one week and
again when they turn 18 and legally become an adult.

The daily ritual of giving donations to monks is an important part of
religious practise for the people of Myanmar -- a way of receiving
spiritual instruction as they chat with the monks during their rounds.

But much of that spiritual life has evaporated since the crackdown on the
demonstrations as the monks are no longer the ubiquitous presence they had
been for centuries.

-- 'You can find sinful people in hell' --

Residents say the illegal videos are helping to fill that void.

"Now the senior monks are taking up that role of giving religious services
to the people through these videos. This is a very responsible thing for
them to do," one Yangon resident told AFP.

Unable to speak directly to their followers in public, two senior monks --
Nyanissara and Kawvida -- have recorded their sermons on a video disc
titled "The end of sinful people".

In the sermon, they discuss the legend of a ruthless emperor who violated
the teachings of the Lord Buddha, which resulted in him, and his
followers, being sent to hell.

"When people do evil and act as if it were good, their karma becomes very
fragile. That sin will lead to their destruction," Nyanissara says in the
video.

"You can find sinful people in hell. Many more people will be going there.
Those already in hell are waiting for them," he says.

Nyanissara is a founder of the respected Sagaing Thitagu World Buddha
University in northern Myanmar, which is popular among foreigners who come
to Myanmar, the former Burma, to study the religion.

His lecture is widely seen here as a rebuke to the junta, and a warning
that security forces will pay a price in the afterlife for the beatings of
monks during the protests -- an unpardonable act in this devoutly Buddhist
country.

Political activists have also been turning to video recordings to keep
public anger focused on the crackdown by distributing compilations of
international news footage that shows soldiers and police beating the
protesters.

The VCDs are spreading through Yangon despite tightened security, because
people can make copies at home and pass them on to friends in private.

"We have to keep reminding people about the junta's brutality. These
images can remind people how much we paid for the September movement,
which isn't over yet," one activist said.

____________________________________

December 5, Democratic Voice of Burma
Opposition groups slam regime’s defiance

Opposition groups in Burma have criticised comments made by government
officials in a press conference, which trivialized the recent protests and
ruled out a role for the opposition in agreeing the new constitution.

In the press conference on Monday, information minister Kyaw Hsan said
that the international media had exaggerated reports of the public
demonstrations in August and September, and claimed that they did not
reflect the views of the majority in Burma.

Kyaw Hsan blamed the protests on anti-government groups inside and outside
the country, and claimed internal agitators and “bogus monks” had been
supported by foreign funding.

He also dismissed the possibility of opposition groups contributing
directly to the drafting of the constitution, and rejected the idea of
outside assistance in the country’s political development.

Fu Cin Sian Thang, chairman of the Zomi National Council, dismissed the
claims made in Monday’s press conference.

"The government has been lying to the world by showing them their bogus
activities. And yesterday's press conference is their confession of this,”
he said.

Veteran politician Thakin Chan Htun said it was clear that the government
would continue to follows its own agenda.

"Both the press conference and general Than Shwe's National Day statement
made it clear that the SPDC is planning to go ahead with their 7-step
roadmap plan,” he said.

“The whole point of the SPDC appointing their liaison minister is only to
buy themselves some time. However, Burma's problems would never be solved
with a meeting between Than Shwe and Daw Suu."

Naing Aung Ma Ngae, spokesperson for the New Mon State Party, said that
the government was moving away from genuine dialogue.

"We believe the problems we are facing now can only be solved via
tripartite dialogue,” he said.

“But the policy of the government's 7-step roadmap goes in the totally
opposite direction from it. This should not be happening."

National League for Democracy spokesperson Nyan Win said that the party
would not be responding to the government’s statements.

"We have no plan to make a formal response to what said at the
[government's] press-conference. At the moment, we are only concentrating
on achieving national reconciliation through dialogue," he said.

____________________________________

December 5, Democratic Voice of Burma
Monk leader U Gambira’s father released

The father of high-profile monk U Gambira, U Min Lwin, who was detained
along with his son a month ago, has now been released, according to a
family member.

Min Lwin and U Gambira were arrested by officers from the police
information force and other government officials in Sintgaing township,
Mandalay division, on 4 November, together with a third man named Ko
Mondine.

U Gambira, the leader of the All-Burma Monks Alliance, was arrested for
his involvement in the monk-led demonstrations in August and September.

He has been held at Insein prison since his arrest, while his father has
been detained at New Mandalay prison.

After being held for one month, Min Lwin was released at around 11pm on 3
December.

Ko Mondine and two other men from Mandalay division, Pyone Cho from Ma
Hlaing township, and Khin Maung Soe From Htone Bo township, were released
at the same time.

Ko Mondine, Pyone Cho and Khin Maung Soe had been arrested for delivering
money to U Gambira.

Min Lwin said he did not want to talk about his prison experiences in detail.

“I’m very happy that I can meet my family again,” he said.

He said that he would now seek justice for his sons U Gambira and Aung
Kyaw Kyaw, who was arrested in Rangoon on 17 October.

U Gambira and Aung Kyaw Kyaw both remain in detention.

Aung Kyaw Kyaw is the younger brother of U Gambira and secretary of the
National League for Democracy in Pauk township, Magwe division.

____________________________________

December 5, Mizzima News
ABYMU tells junta to stop arresting monks, sealing monasteries - Htein Linn

Disgusted with the Burmese military junta's relentless persecution of
monks, the India based All Burma Young Monks Union today called on the
regime to stop persecuting religious leaders and to reopen Buddhist
monasteries it has sealed as a vendetta in connection with the September
monk-led protests.

Continuing with the crackdown on those involved in the September protests
led by monks, the Burmese military authorities have arrested several
hundred monks and sealed monasteries including Maggin monastery in
Rangoon's Thingankyun Township, forcing monks and novices to shift to
other places.

The ABYMU, during a protest rally held on Wednesday in New Delhi, said the
Burmese junta in its crackdown on monks and novices, who took part in the
recent protests, is destroying, defaming and doing incalculable damage to
the Buddhist religion. The group demanded that the junta immediately stop
arresting and torturing Buddhist clergy and to reopen all monasteries it
has sealed.

"The junta is continuing to arrest monks and seal monasteries, leaving the
monks and novices with no place to live. We protest against the junta's
blasphemous acts in sealing the Maggin monastery and trying to send off
its abbot to his own native place," the ABYMU Chairman, U Pyinnawarah,
told Mizzima.

Authorities on November 29 sealed Maggin Monastery, which is also famous
for sheltering HIV/AIDS patients who come from rural areas for treatment
in Rangoon. It forced the abbot of the monastery, U Nandiyah and another
monk, six novices and two laymen to leave the monastery.

The authorities are planning to send the abbot to his native home town in
Magwe division, central Burma.

"This only shows that the junta can brutally suppress not only Buddhism
but also all other religions. So, we cannot just sit and watch these acts.
I urge all democratic forces to join hands and stand against this evil
government," added U Pyinnyawarah.

____________________________________

December 5, IBN Live
Inside Myanmar: Buddhism holds activists together

Myanmar: When Nyamyo walked through the porous India- Myanmar border 12
years ago, he was just a 14-year-old, who dreamt of a better life and of
future studies.

He was relieved to have left a country, where opportunities were
non-existent.

However, soon that relief became a burden. His thoughts were with
thousands of his countrymen, whose rights were suppressed by the junta.

“The dreams of the Burmese students have been lost for 20 years now,” says
Nyamyo.

Today Nyamyo and his wife Mo Pyi manage refugee camps for people who have
fled Myanmar. They help the cause of democracy in Burma clandestinely.
They pray for their countrymen every day. The statue of Buddha gives them
strength in their unfinished struggle.

Buddhism has become the glue that is holding the activists together in
Myanmar. The biggest protests for democracy that were held recently in
Myanmar were led not by students, not by politicians, but by Buddhists
monks.

The western media has been reporting about overnight raids on monks, news
that can't be confirmed given the clampdown on journalists. At the
Shwedegon Pagoda, the oldest in Yangon, not many monks can be spotted.
Most of them have gone into hiding.

"There is a difference between the past and now. None of those who led the
protests have fled the country this time. They are hiding in the country
and will carry on the protests,” says Ethnic Nationalities Council,
Myanmar,

On the streets, life goes on as usual, under the watchful eye of the police.

But their vision is clear as they want democracy restored. On the face of
it things are calm, but looks can be deceptive.

"They have no idea what is simmering underneath if they think that it is
over then they are mistaken. It is going to come back again unless there
is some kind of reconciliation,” says editor Myanmar Times, Daniel Long.

The junta knows it probably. May be that's why they allowed the country's
media to put pro-democracy leader Aung San Su Kyi on its pages.

While such gestures by the junta may be a move away from the past, there
is still no word on the fate of thousands who have gone missing during
Myanmar's darkest years and perhaps there won’t be any.

And this is the dark truth that the people of Myanmar and the rest of the
world will have to reconcile to.

http://www.ibnlive.com/news/inside-myanmar-buddhism-holds-activists-together/53662-2.html

____________________________________

December 5, Narinjara News
20 Kyat currency notes with anti-junta writing in Sittwe

In an unique movement, a large number of 20 Kyat currency notes scribbled
with words denouncing the military junta has been distributed by an
unidentified organization in the Arakan State capital Sittwe since
mid-November 2007, said an Arakanese politician from the city.

 "I heard a monk's organization was distributing the currency notes urging
people to stage demonstrations again in Sittwe without fear," he said.

On the currency notes the group has used marker pens to write and urge
people to stage demonstrations again, to free themselves from the yoke of
the military regime that is worse than Hitler's or Saddam Hussein's and to
be brave and fight the junta.

The politician said the currency notes were distributed in key places in
Sittwe, such as intersections and markets, in the early morning hours
before people began waking up.

Many people are unwilling to even hold the currency, fearing retribution
by the junta if they do, but the 20 Kyat notes are  unavoidable as they
have spread across the city.

A source said army intelligence is now looking for clues as to which
organization might be distributing the notes to people with
anti-government statements.

The Burmese military has not dared to withdraw security forces from main
locations in Sittwe since such anti-government activities are continuing.
Security forces in Sittwe have been recently reinforced by a regiment of
riot police brought in from Burma proper last week.

____________________________________

December 5, Jakarta Post
Child soldiers a problem in Myanmar - David Scott Mathieson

In a small Myanmarese army border outpost in Shan State, a sign in English
and Myanmarese points into Thailand's thriving tourist town of Doi Ang
Khan: "We Are Able." It's probably not much comfort to the soldiers
walking around barefoot, enclosed by sharpened bamboo stakes and separated
from their comrades by mountains of hostile jungle filled with resentful
civilians and vengeful Shan insurgents.

The squalid scene is entirely at odds with the Myanmarese Army's
propaganda, the parades mounted on a regular basis to showcase control,
progress and development. And it undermines the belligerence shown by the
ruling State Peace and Development Council (SPDC).

How strong is the Myanmarese military? One test of strength of an army
that didn't hesitate to beat and shoot protesting monks and civilians on
the streets of Rangoon can be gauged by its continued recruitment of
children into its ranks. This is a sure sign of weakness.

In the past several months, Human Rights Watch has collected testimonies
from former child soldiers that show the practice of forcibly recruiting
children, some as young as 10, continues freely throughout Myanmar. It is
almost impossible to estimate the number of child soldiers currently in
the Myanmarese Army, or Tatmadaw, but there are clearly thousands.

Why does the army recruit children? Partly it is because more and more
soldiers are needed to enable the army to keep close control over the
whole country. Just as with the TNI under Soeharto, the Myanmarese
military believes it has an inherent right to rule the country.

But army rule has been a disaster for Myanmar. Deep poverty affects most
of the population, unemployment is rampant, corruption is everywhere, and,
in the farming communities where most Myanmarese live, ruinous government
policies which include using new strains of rice and the forcible planting
of bio-fuel crops has increased rural suffering.

Given the deep antipathy most Myanmarese feel towards their reclusive and
privileged military leadership, joining the army is not universally
appealing. So the army often turns to forcible recruitment of children.
Recruitment of the young, the old, and even the infirm, is often coerced
and unregulated.

Human Rights Watch has seen internal documents from the ruling council
which show that even the senior leadership is cognizant and deeply
concerned about deteriorating morale in the ranks, as reflected by
increasing desertion rates. All these factors make the recruitment of
children less of a concern than keeping manpower rates up.

There are more than 30 non-state armed groups in Myanmar. Some, such as
the drug-running United Wa State Army, have more than 20,000 soldiers,
many of whom are very young children forcibly recruited. Others, such as
the small Karenni Army, with just 1,000 soldiers, have worked hard to
reduce their use of children. The lack of a genuine process of national
reconciliation explains why many armed groups persist, and the potential
for a resumption of large-scale fighting is ever-present.

Many older anti-government insurgents I have interviewed over the years
say there were no children in government ranks in the past, and that the
Tatmadaw was a professional and battle-hardened force. Not many say that
now, as the gap grows between the pampered officer class and the
brutalized rank-and-file.

Resentment against the senior generals is widespread in Myanmar, but the
fear of challenging them is greater. The authorities punish the family of
anyone who questions the military, which is why the often hoped-for split
within the army is so elusive. The same soldiers bunkered down in border
stockades, many of them children, and in cantonment areas around cities,
effectively an army of occupation, are also the victims of the paranoia
and intransigence of the SPDC leadership.

The Tatmadaw is also aided by close relations with China, Russia, India
and Thailand. For example, in spite of the fact that the military has
spent the past 20 years viciously repressing its own people, Myanmar's
defense forces have dramatically expanded.

Arms purchases, including weapons systems such as fighter planes, tanks,
artillery, naval vessels -- and even a plan to purchase a nuclear reactor
-- are facilitated by close allies China, India, and Russia. The
Association of South-East Asian Nations has become more frustrated with
the SPDC, but its words are not matched by actions.

In the next few weeks, the UN Security Council has the opportunity to
censure the SPDC on its use of child soldiers, as Myanmar comes up for
review before the Security Council's working group on children and armed
conflict. The Security Council has said it will consider targeted
sanctions, including arms embargoes, on parties to armed conflict that
persist in the recruitment and use of child soldiers. Myanmar's failure is
clear: The UN Secretary-General has named the SPDC in four consecutive
reports for violating international standards prohibiting the recruitment
and use of child soldiers.

Indonesia, which abstained on a Security Council resolution against
Myanmar in January, should vote for a strong resolution now and demand an
end to the violations against Myanmar's children.

The writer does research on Myanmar for Human Rights Watch.

____________________________________

December 05, Kachin News Group
Body of Chinese inspector found near Myitsone

The body of the Chinese inspector who drowned in the Mali Hka River
(Irrawaddy) on November 23 was fished out on December 3 by local
fishermen. The body got caught in the net in Myitkyina in Kachin State,
Northern Burma, said residents.

According to residents near Myitsone hydro power site, the body got
entangled in the net of fishermen of Hkangbu village, three miles
downstream from Myitsone hydro power project site. The fishermen have been
offered a reward of Kyat 500,000 (US$ 432) by military junta authorities
of Myitkyina Township, capital of Kachin State.

After the discovery of the body, a new problem has cropped up between the
junta's township immigration office and Burma-Asia World Company on the
illegal employment of Chinese inspector at the Myitsone dam project by the
firm. The inspector was working at the site without holding any
residential permit or visa, said sources close to the township
authorities.

On the other hand, the junta's Kachn State's Military Commander Maj-Gen
Ohn Myint faces a tricky  problem over the death of the Chinese inspector 
working illegally because the Asia World Company is jointly owned by the
son of the junta's vice-chairman, vice Snr-Gen Maung Aye, a local
businessman told KNG.

The body remains preserved in a special ice-coffin at the Myitsone dam
construction site and the family will be allowed to take back it to their
home in China by the authorities, the sources close to the authorities
said.

The 50 year old inspector, a water bed and watercourse expert, the key
person died while he was inspecting the water bed in Myitsone, the popular
confluence of the Mali Hka and N'mai Hka Rivers at Tang Hpre Village, 27
miles north of Myitkyina.

The Myitsone hydro power project is the ruling junta's one of seven
hydroelectric power projects in Kachin State and it was estimated to
generate a total of 3,600 MW of electricity, according to the junta-run
newspapers.

The project is being constructed in the joint sector between the Chinese
government's China Power Investment Corporation (CPI) and the junta's Asia
World Company.  The preliminary inspection activities at the Myitsone
began last year.

As of now, the ruling military junta has not shown any sign of stopping
the Myitsone hydro power project even though native Kachins have appealed
to the Burma's supremo Snr-Gen Than Shwe to halt the Myitsone hydro power
project through the aegis of the Kachin Nationals Consultative Assembly
(KNCA) since May 21.

____________________________________
BUSINESS / TRADE

December 5, ABC Radio Australia
Calls for financial sanctions on Burma's military

An Australian economist who is an expert on Burma says Australia could
encourage international pressure on the nation's military regime.

Officially 15 people died and many thousands were jailed in September's
brutal crackdown against democracy protesters led by Burma's monks.

Burmese exiles including monks say more bloodshed could occur if the
international community doesn't find a way to prevent the continuing
arrest and harassment of Burma's monks.

After the September crackdown on protestors Australia's former Howard
government announced a financial blacklist against 418 Burmese citizens
including 40 businessmen.

The US also extended its sanctions in September.

Dr Sean Turnell, Associate Professor in Economics at Macquarie University
is a recognised expert on Burma and gave evidence last year to a US Senate
Committee on economic sanctions.

He has told Radio Australia's Asia Pacific program specific financial
sanctions could be more effective than broad brush economic sanctions.

Dr Turnell says targeting the bank accounts of Burma's elite could be an
option.

Such a move would overcome the problem of Burma's trading partners, like
China, India, Thailand and Russia cancelling out the effectiveness of
economic sanctions.

Dr Turnell says Australia could build on its close relations with
Singapore, which is one of the major bankers to the regime and some of the
generals.

"The financial sanction that is where I think sanctions levied by the
United States, by Australia and hopefully by Singapore and countries like
that could be quite effective," he said.

For full interview see the Asia Pacific website at
http://radioaustralia.net.au/asiapac

____________________________________

December 4, Mizzima News
Post-crisis economic fallout in Burma - Kyi May Kaung

The recent crisis in Burma that started in August with the Burmese
government raising fuel prices from 100 to 500 percent happened at a time
when world oil prices were $72 per barrel. By the end of November light
sweet crude was at $99 per barrel and seemed likely to rise higher.
However the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank's interest rate cuts and a
sufficient supply of oil have resulted in a slight price fall this past
week.

Any assessment of the economic fallout of the crisis in Burma has to
include these international economic factors as well as systemic factors
built into the command economy that the State Peace and Development
Council (SPDC) favors.

An assessment is doubly difficult as it has to be based on figures for
isolated years and estimates picked from different sources at different
times, making a continuous timeline problematic. So my analysis will for
the most part be conjectural, but it will give a picture of what to expect
in Burma in this international context where the United States is probably
in for a recession due to the home mortgage debt crisis, and while China
is playing an increasing role in the world economy and is not expected to
have any dampening of its 10 to 11 percent per annum growth rate (see The
Economist, 'How fit is the Panda?' September 29, 2007, pp. 75-77).

Burma's other main neighbor, India, is also increasingly a major player on
the world economic stage, with an average of 8 percent growth over the
last three years (CIA Factbook) and 9.4 percent growth in 2006-2007. It
just happens that Burma is geographically situated between two of the
fastest growing economies in the world, and if physical closeness alone
could do the job, it should be in good economic shape itself. But as
everyone knows, it isn't. It's also resource rich, including fairly well
educated workers (who would be better educated if it were an open
society), yet its economic prospects are always dismal.

I'd like to argue that all this is due to the military government's
command economy that has been in place more or less unchanged since 1962.
Add to this the ongoing economic and social disruption of the last three
months, and we see a system that has been failing on its own, even without
sanctions, which are more targeted and effective this time around.

Since at least 2004, leading Burmese economists have been gently casting
doubt on the performance of the Burmese economy, saying metaphorically to
the effect that -- if it's such a new model car, how can it drive so fast
on such poor roads? This points to an anonymous technocrat's realization
that infrastructure and the design of the economic system are largely
responsible for how fast (or slow) a growth rate can be achieved. The CIA
Factbook, updated November 1 and accessed on November 15, gives a 2006
estimate for Burma of a 3 percent per annum growth rate. As the UN Special
Envoy for Burma has been talking of poverty alleviation in Burma and
"trying to find out its causes" it seems relevant here that a year 2000
estimate in the CIA Factbook mentions that fully a quarter of the Burmese
population is below the poverty line. The inflation rate for consumer
prices (2006 estimate) is 20 percent per annum.

F. William Engdahl, in "The Geopolitical Stakes of the 'Saffron
Revolution'" October 17, 2007 (http://samsara.tuditi.del.si/2007/11/18),
accessed on November 19, says: ". . . few will argue that the present
military dictatorship of the reclusive General Than Shwe is right up there
when it comes to world class tyrannies. It's also a fact that Myanmar
enjoys (sic) one of the world's lowest living standards. Partly as a
result of the ill-conceived 100% to 500% price hikes in gasoline and other
fuels in August, inflation, the nominal trigger for the mass protests led
by saffron robed monks, is unofficially estimated to have risen by 35%.
Ironically the demand to establish "market" energy prices came from the
IMF and World Bank."

"The UN estimates that the population of some 50 million inhabitants spend
up to 70% of their monthly income on food alone. The recent fuel price
hike makes matters unbearable for tens of millions."

This points to the fact that prices may have risen an additional 35
percent since August alone. Before the August to October crisis, there
were already reports that people could not afford to go to work because of
the high transport costs due to high petrol prices. During the
demonstrations themselves, some dissident websites overseas reported that
over the long run demonstrators would have difficulties in coming out onto
the streets daily as they were "struggling with their livelihoods on a day
to day basis."

Looking at petroleum oil imports alone, the CIA Factbook states that Burma
imports 19,180 barrels a day (2004 estimate). At $100 per barrel, Burma
would be paying $19 million a day just for its oil imports. Foreign
experts as yet have been unable to ascertain if the army pays the central
government for its fuel needs. The answer is "probably not" and as the
central government and the army are increasingly becoming one and the same
thing, we can only expect accelerated inflation rates post-crackdown. It
is highly likely that the fuel price increases will be financed by budget
deficits and more printing of paper money.

The United States has instituted stronger and more targeted sanctions
against Burma which are of a financial nature. Already there are reports
that Bagan Air has closed down flights, specifically citing sanctions and
high fuel prices as the reasons. It is also widely rumored that the
targeted financial sanctions by the United States on top SPDC officials
and connected businessmen has caused Singapore banks, where the junta does
most of its banking and shopping, to close the accounts of certain
individuals and to return cash to the former account holders. This was
said to have been transported in suitcases to Rangoon, subject to a 10
percent surcharge levied by the Burmese government, but this is not yet
confirmed.

Several experts that I spoke to, who did not wish to be named, said that
the Burmese balance of payments and the government budget figures are in
Burmese kyat, at the official exchange rate of about 7 kyat to the US
dollar, while the black market or real exchange rate was about 1300 kyat
to the dollar in September. They said that beyond the exchange rate, it
was highly likely that the regime's top brass "skims off the top" from
Burma's export earnings before the figures are entered in the official
statistics. The extent of this leakage is unknown, but shows itself in the
high spending lifestyles of top junta officials.

Looking at the trade figures, total Burmese exports were $5,321 billion
f.o.b. in 2006 and consist of natural gas, wood and wood products, pulses,
beans, fish, rice, jade and other gems. But this official figure does not
include the timber, gems, narcotics, rice and other products smuggled to
Thailand, China, India and Bangladesh. Since General Ne Win staged his
coup in 1962 and nationalized private enterprises, and subsequently
compounded by the ongoing inefficiency of the State Economic Enterprises
and the economic irrationality of the centrally controlled command
economy, the military government has caused illegal cross border trade to
flourish. After 1988, at about the same time that the People's Republic of
China stopped financing the Communist Party Burma, the cross border trade
with China was legalized, but obviously many contraband goods are not
included in the official statistics. It is common knowledge that the
hardwood resources of northern Burma have been largely exploited and
depleted and there are jade buying depots in Yunnan close to the Burma
border.

Burma's main export partners are as follows:

Thailand 49%
India 12.8%
China 5.3%
Japan 5.2%

Exports to Thailand consist mainly of natural gas.

Burma's imports were estimated at $2.284 billion f.o.b. in 2006. The CIA
Factbook states that "import figures are grossly underestimated due to the
value of consumer goods, diesel fuel and other products smuggled in from
Thailand, China, Malaysia and India."

Burma's imports originate primarily from the following countries:

China 34.6%
Thailand 21.8%
Singapore 16.2%
Malaysia 4.7%
S. Korea 4.3%

United States' trade with Burma for 2006, according to the U.S. Census
(accessed November 15, 2007), is minimal, with imports listed as zero and
exports totaling $7.5 million.

In mid-November Burma recently held another gem auction. It has been
holding these emporiums increasingly frequently in an obvious attempt to
raise revenue. Irrawaddy magazine reports that though many buyers came to
the current emporium, and a lot of jade tonnage was sold, revenue figures
were not given as they "are lower than usual this time." Sean Turnell of
Macquarie University, Sydney, has pointed out that gems are easy to hide.
Burmese jade is mostly sold to Chinese customers while rubies and
sapphires are cut and set into jewelry in Bangkok. In the case of rubies
they are "baked" to enhance color. As the main market for Burmese gems is
in Asia, it is uncertain how large an impact the gems embargo will have on
Burma's earnings from gems, which in a normal year is estimated at $300
million.

The SPDC typically tries to raise revenues through greater exploitation of
resources and people, rather than trying to decrease spending. It could be
argued that in some sense "it cannot decrease spending" as it needs to pay
off its crony capitalists and top army personnel in order to buy the
political support it so badly needs.

In foreign investments, an Associated Press article published on November
26 (http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2007/11/26/ap4373496.html) states that
foreign investment in Burma's oil and gas sector reached $470 million in
2006-2007, accounting for more than 60 percent of total investment. Of
this, $240 million was from the United Kingdom and $160 million from
Singapore and Russia, with South Korea also maintaining large investments
in this sector. These figures show that Burma is fast becoming a country
dependent on and dominated by foreign investors (corporations) in spite of
the policies of the junta which are often described as "isolationist."

Canada has also tightened sanctions. But as total trade between Canada and
Burma sank to $9 million last year, the sanctions are seen as largely
symbolic (VOA news, November 14, 2007). Australia likewise has a slight
trade relationship with Burma, which will also be influenced by sanctions.
According to the Australian government's figures, Australian exports to
Burma ranked 77th in importance and fell 19.9 percent in 2006-2007.
Imports from Burma ranked 73rd and rose 47.7 percent in 2006-07. Australia
mainly exports wheat to Burma and imports fish and shellfish from Burma.
According to official Australian trade figures this is Burma's trade
picture:

Burma's principal export destinations as of 2006:

1. Thailand 49.0%
2. India 12.8%
3. China 5.3%
4. Australia 0.4%

Burma's principal import sources:

1. China 34.6%
2. Thailand 21.8%
3. Singapore 16.2%
4. Australia 0.7%

So Australia's sanctions on Burma are also largely symbolic.

Besides these trade effects and the fuel price increases, the
demonstrations themselves and the ongoing clampdown are likely to have a
dampening effect on the Burmese economy. The Economist Intelligence Unit
estimates average consumer price inflation will be 39.5 percent in 2008,
while real GDP growth will be 2.5 percent (accessed November 15, 2007).

Summary

Following its brutal suppression of peaceful protestors, including
Buddhist monks, in September, the SPDC still maintains a firm grip on
power. Given that public resentment towards the junta has reached new
heights, there could be a renewed effort to oust the regime in the near
future, but any such attempt is likely to again be violently suppressed.
The US remains strongly critical of the Burmese regime, and will keep
sanctions in place, as will the European Union. Although China and Burma's
fellow members of the Association of South-East Asian Nations have
expressed some criticism of the military's repressive actions, these
countries are unlikely to impose any punishment. Economic policymaking
will continue to be erratic. The energy sector will remain fairly buoyant,
but the outlook for the rest of the economy is poor. High inflation will
put downward pressure on the free-market exchange rate. Gas exports will
put the current account in surplus.

In conclusion, as the economic fallout of the recent crisis in Burma
continues on top of structural and systemic factors which have been in
place since 1962 and 1988, in addition to the generals' own tendencies
toward erratic and dysfunctional economic behavior, the overall outlook is
quite bleak. But the energy sector and the physical closeness of a super
charged Chinese economy and a rapidly growing Indian one will provide some
mitigating effect.

Kyi May Kaung (Ph.D.) is based in the United States.

____________________________________

December 5, Reuters
Daewoo says China preferred bidder for Myanmar gas

Daewoo International Corp has picked China as a preferred bidder for
natural gas from its project in Myanmar, the South Korean company said on
Wednesday.

This confirms that China is at the front of a queue to grab gas that India
and Thailand had also been angling for, as the three battle to secure
cleaner fuel for their fast growing economies.

Daewoo, which operates Myanmar's A-1 and A-3 natural gas fields, said in a
regulatory filing it would award partners the right to buy gas via
pipeline, with the results of negotiations to be announced by June 5 at
the latest.

It did not name any partners, but India's junior oil minister has
previously said the gas would be sold to PetroChina. Myanmar officials
have also previously said the gas would go to China.

China's official news agency, Xinhua, reported in April that China
expected to spend 8 billion yuan ($1.08 billion) on a gas pipeline between
the two countries.

Company officials were not immediately available for comment.

India, China and Thailand have been bidding to buy gas from the two
fields, which hold 4.53-7.74 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of recoverable
reserves.

Daewoo has a 60 percent stake in the fields, followed by Korea Gas Corp
with a 10 percent stake, India's Oil and Natural Gas Corp. with 20 percent
and India's GAIL with 10 percent.

Myanmar has at least 90 TCF of gas reserves and 3.2 billion barrels of
recoverable crude oil reserves in 19 onshore and three major offshore
fields.

Altogether, 25 offshore blocks are under exploration, 12 of them in the
Gulf of Martaban, six off the Tanintharyi coast and seven off the Rakhine
coast.

____________________________________
REGIONAL

December 5, Associated Press
Cambodian prime minister says sanctions against Myanmar will be futile

Cambodia's prime minister expressed his opposition Wednesday to economic
sanctions against Myanmar, saying they would not force the ruling military
junta to make reforms.

"The game of sanctions will never lead to any result but will only cause
hardship for the poor people," Prime Minister Hun Sen said in a speech at
a development meeting in Phnom Penh.

The United States and European Union have been pushing for tougher
sanctions against Myanmar in response to its September crackdown on
pro-democracy demonstrators that killed at least 15 people.

During a visit to Cambodia last week Ibrahim Gambari the U.N.'s special
envoy to Myanmar called for more cooperation between Myanmar's military
rulers and the United Nations in speeding up democratic reforms to avoid
sanctions being sought against the regime.

Gambari also called on the government to release detained pro-democracy
leader Aung San Suu Kyi and include her in the process of reform and
reconciliation.

Myanmar Prime Minister Lt. Gen. Thein Sein also visited Cambodia last week
and discussed sanctions with Hun Sen.

Hun Sen said he has not been persuaded to side with the Myanmar junta, but
that sanctions would not help resolve the political situation there.

The military government will continue to be sustained by foreign companies
that are doing business in the country, he said.

Companies from countries such as China and Thailand have invested in
natural gas, timber and gem stones in Myanmar, where an estimated 90
percent of the 54 million people live on about US$1 (euro0.68) a day.

____________________________________
INTERNATIONAL

December 5, PR Newswire
University of San Francisco to honor Buddhist monks who fought for democracy

The University of San Francisco will honor the Buddhist monks of Burma
(Myanmar) for their courage and nonviolent demonstrations against the
tyrannical Burmese military earlier this year, by awarding them with an
honorary doctorate at commencement ceremonies on Friday, Dec. 14. A
representative of the monks, Sayadaw U Kovida, will accept the degree on
their behalf and deliver the commencement address. He himself was
imprisoned by the military junta after participating in 1988 pro-democracy
demonstrations against the Burmese dictatorship.

In September of this year, thousands of Burmese Buddhist monks protested
peacefully against their country's repressive military regime, prompting a
brutal response from the government. Thousands of monks were beaten and
arrested, and many were tortured and killed.

"We honor the monks of Burma to help keep the Burmese struggle for
democracy in the minds and hearts of those of us who enjoy the freedoms
they are struggling to achieve," said USF President Stephen A. Privett,
S.J. "These are extraordinary, modern-day heroes and persons of faith
committed to building a better world, even at the risk of arrest,
beatings, and death. These are the kind of people we hope our graduates
will be."

The monks exemplify USF's moral commitment to educate minds and hearts to
change the world. The Jesuit, Catholic University draws a comparison
between these monks and the six Jesuit priests killed in El Salvador [with
their housekeeper and her daughter] 18 years ago, also for outspoken
criticisms of an equally repressive government. USF has previously honored
the slain Jesuits of El Salvador; it now honors the monks of Burma for
their courage, compassion, and commitment to democracy in the face of a
brutal military dictatorship.

Ma Soe Yein Sayadaw U Kovida, a highly respected Buddhist monk living in
exile in a New York monastery, will accept the degree on behalf of all the
Burmese monks. Originally from Burma, he is a senior monk who has a
history of standing against the military junta.

The graduation ceremony will take place at 3:30 p.m. Friday, December 14
at St. Ignatius Catholic Church on the USF campus located at 650 Parker
Ave. (at Fulton Street), San Francisco, 94118.

CONTACT: Anne-Marie Devine of the University of San Francisco,
+1-415-422-2697, abdevine at usfca.edu

Web Site: http://www.usfca.edu/

SOURCE University of San Francisco
http://www.prnewswire.com

____________________________________

December 5, Bloomberg
U.S. condemns Myanmar excluding Suu Kyi from democracy talks - Paul Tighe

Myanmar's exclusion of Aung San Suu Kyi and other opposition leaders from
talks on drafting a new constitution shows the military's determination to
hold onto power in the Southeast Asian nation, the U.S. government said.

``Senior General Than Shwe and his regime has no intention to begin a
genuine, inclusive dialogue necessary for a democratic transition with
these parties as called for by the international community,'' the State
Department said in a statement issued in Washington yesterday.

The government's 54-member commission drafting the new constitution is
sufficient for the task, Information Minister Brigadier General Kyaw Hsan
said Dec. 3, according to the state- run New Light of Myanmar newspaper.
``No assistance or advice from other persons is required.''

Myanmar's military, which has ruled the country formerly known as Burma
for 45 years, was condemned around the world for deploying soldiers Sept.
26 to crush the biggest anti-junta protests in almost 20 years. The U.S.
and the United Nations led calls for the regime to start talks with the
opposition, including Suu Kyi, who remains under house arrest.

Suu Kyi, 62, the leader of the National League for Democracy, made clear
in a Nov. 8 statement ``she remains committed to meaningful and time-bound
talks with Burma's ruling generals'' and welcomes a UN offer to assist
with the discussions, the State Department said. ``It is Than Shwe and his
senior generals who are obstructing progress toward democratization in
Burma.''

National Convention

A National Convention, begun in 2004, completed its work on proposed
democratic changes in September. The U.S. and UN denounced the process for
failing to include the NLD and ethnic groups.

The government-appointed panel began its work on drafting the constitution
this week, Kyaw Hsan said Dec. 3 at the government's first news conference
since crushing the anti-junta protests in September.

``The writing of the constitution may be delayed if there are disturbances
and hindrances,'' the minister told reporters in the capital, Naypyidaw,
according to the New Light newspaper. ``If there is cooperation in a
democratization process, and if there are no disturbances or hindrances,
the writing of the constitution will be completed within a reasonable
time.''

Labor Minister U Aung Kyi told the news conference he held three meetings
with Suu Kyi that will prepare the way for future discussions. He didn't
elaborate.
Prisoners Released

Security forces detained 2,927 people, including 596 monks, during the
protests and 80 people remain in detention with the rest released, the
labor minister said. Nine detainees have been sentenced, he said without
giving any details.

The government said it freed 8,585 prisoners to mark the start of work
this week by the panel known as the Commission for Drafting the State
Constitution.

An estimated 1,800 political prisoners are still being held, the State
Department said, renewing its call for the junta to free all political
detainees ``as a necessary condition for a genuine dialogue with
democratic and ethnic minority groups on a transition to a civilian,
democratic government in Burma.''

The UN has said as many as 110 demonstrators may have been killed by
security forces during the September protests. Opposition groups in
Myanmar and outside the country, as well as ``bogus monks,'' were behind
the unrest, Kyaw Hsan said.

As many as 700 people arrested during and since the protests remain behind
bars and another 1,150 political prisoners held before the uprising
haven't been released, Amnesty International said last week.

The arrest of political activists and harassment of Buddhist monks by the
Myanmar regime is ``deeply troubling,'' the U.S. State Department said
last week.

At least 14 activists, including members of the NLD, have been detained
since junta leaders met with UN envoy Ibrahim Gambari on Nov. 3-8 and
pledged to stop such arrests, Amnesty said in its report.

____________________________________

December 5, BBC Burmese Service
Burma among housing rights violators

The organisation, which fights forced evictions worldwide, gives the
awards to countries that have committed the most serious and systematic
violations.

This year's awards went to China, Burma and a member of the EU, Slovakia,
for its alleged discrimination against the minority Roma, or Gypsy,
community.

An international housing campaign group has named Beijing as one of the
world's worst violators of housing rights because of forced evictions
connected with next year's Olympic Games.

Burma is accused of evicting more than a million people since 1962,
particularly ethnic minority groups. Slovakia is accused of persistent
discrimination against its Roma minority.

____________________________________

December 5, BBC Burmese Service
Expulsion of UN top diplomat is misunderstanding

UN country coordinator Charles Petrie said UN has the moral responsibility
to point out the realistic situation in Burma.

He said he has mixed feelings to leave Burma after four and half years of
service and said he could not accomplish his mission.

Regarding the controversial statement he said it was issued only after the
fundamental and dramatic events in Burma on 24 of October.In that case he
said it did not instigate the riots as accused by the government

He said poverty alleviation as demanded by the monks are what UN is
proposing and the figures are also based on official statistics.

He said there is misunderstanding on UN statement by the authorities.

____________________________________

December 4, Christian Freedom International
Michigan community steps forward to support Burma’s refugees

When a Michigan realtor informed her church congregation that the Htoo
family would soon become members of the local community, the plea for help
on their behalf was all that was needed to cause dozens of people to
spring into action.

In the days that followed her request, an outpouring of support brought
about a flood of donations, including clothing, furniture, household
supplies and food, as well as donations of time and labor from an army of
volunteers who pitched in to renovate what would become the Htoo family’s
new home.Remember the Persecuted

The children needed shoes and other supplies.The Htoos are not just any
family that has come to live in Michigan. They are refugees from Burma,
victims of one of the oldest – and least talked about – civil wars in
human history. Although recent monk-led protests briefly caught the
attention of the international community this past summer, the country has
been suffering for decades under a repressive government that has caused
the displacement of thousands of ethnic Karen and Karenni Christians.

Christian Freedom International, a nonprofit organization that relocated
its headquarters from Front Royal, Virginia to Sault Ste. Marie, Michigan
in September 2007, has been on the forefront of the ongoing political and
humanitarian effort to resettle Burma’s refugees in the United States. CFI
president Jim Jacobson recently awarded Assistant Secretary of State Ellen
Sauerbrey with the 2007 CFI Freedom Award in recognition of her extensive
work on behalf of the refugee resettlement. On a more local scale, CFI
initiated the process of resettling the Htoos – a family of 10 that had
been temporarily residing in Fort Wayne, Indiana – in Michigan. “The
community up here has been awesome in their support for the refugees,”
says Jacobson.

Volunteers from Central Methodist Church, as well as several other
churches and organizations, joined together to paint, fix broken windows,
repair plumbing and electrical systems, and scrub floors in the Htoos’
rented house before the family’s arrival on Friday, November 30. Local
department stores and supermarkets donated gift cards, and a Goodwill
store has offered donations of free merchandise and clothing for six
months. Pending the receipt of proper work papers, jobs have also been
secured for several members of the Htoo family.

Like hundreds of other refugees who spent years on the run from the
Burmese military or languishing in refugee camps, the second chance at
life in the United States is making a world of difference for the Htoos.
Mercy Htoo, a 15-year-old former student at CFI’s vocational school for
refugee children in Thailand, is especially excited about the future. “I
want to stay in America to get an education,” she says, “because I want to
be a missionary teacher.”

“When they arrived, their joy and excitement was evident from the smiles
on their faces,” says Karen Jacobson, wife of CFI president Jim Jacobson.
“I could see that their journey had led them from the chains of the
refugee camps to freedom and dignity which allows them to work, provide
for their families, and contribute something special to this community in
the north. They will have many challenges to overcome, but God is watching
over them and will help them with the assistance of their brothers and
sisters in the family of God.”

CFI intends to help additional refugees resettle in Michigan in January
2008. To learn more about the refugee resettlement, or the humanitarian
crisis in Burma, see Help Refugees Resettle.