BurmaNet News, February 16-18, 2008

[Editor]

February 16-18, 2008, Issue # 3404

INSIDE BURMA
Mizzima News: NLD rejects Burmese junta's referendum and election plan
Narinjara News: Sittwe students protest bus fair increase
Mizzima News: Two journalists arrested in Rangoon
DVB: Authorities ban Dhamma talk in Magwe

ON THE BORDER
Irrawaddy: Hundreds attend Mahn Shah funeral
Irrawaddy: KNU: more leaders targeted for assassination

BUSINESS / TRADE
DVB: Rice export restrictions drive up prices
AP: Russian company signs gold exploration deal with Burma
Irrawaddy: Weekly business roundup

REGIONAL
Times of India: India persuades Myanmar to let UN envoy visit
Reuters: Japan to accept Burmese refugees
Straits Times: Japanese team heads to Myanmar on journalist's killing:
official

INTERNATIONAL
Reuters: Freeing dissidents seen as vital to Myanmar transition
Reuters: Gambari starts Asian tour
Irrawaddy: Ban Ki-moon briefs Bush on Burma

OPINION / OTHER
Irrawaddy: Don't push NLD into a corner - Min Zin [News Analysis]
The Nation: Burmese junta hedges its bets for the future - Kavi
Chongkittavorn

____________________________________
INSIDE BURMA

February 18, Mizzima News
NLD rejects Burmese junta's referendum and election plan - Maung Dee

The National League for Democracy Burma's main opposition political party
today, in an official statement, rejected the junta's referendum and
election plans, saying it will not lead to democratic reforms but is just
another tactic to prolong military rule in Burma.

NLD spokesperson U Thein Nyunt said, "We do not believe that there will be
a free and fair referendum and election, because the junta has a tradition
of breaking its promises including its promise on the 1990 election. So,
we think this is only a violation of human rights and democracy."

The NLD's statement, read out to Mizzima over telephone, is the first
official response on the ruling junta's plan. The junta on February 9
announced that it will hold a referendum in May and followed by a general
election in 2010.

Holding a referendum on the draft constitution, which is written without
the participation of peoples' representatives, only shows it is not
heading for democratic reforms but will shower bigger political and social
problems in the country, the statement said.

Besides, holding another election without rectifying the 1990 election
results only proves that the junta disregards the peoples' popular desire
and will do it again, the statement said.

"The NLD, therefore, does not believe that the ensuing referendum will be
justly conducted," added the statement.

"If the government genuinely wants to resolve the political crisis in
Burma, they should respect the will of the people and the constitution
must reflect the peoples will," Thein Nyunt said.

Burma has been ruled by military dictators for nearly half a century,
since general Ne Win seized power in a military coup in 1962. Burma once
rich in mineral resources and known as the 'rice bowl' of Southeast Asia
has gone through severe economic deterioration under the military
dictator's economic mismanagement.

The plummeting economic situation forces a majority of the Burmese people
to live under the poverty line. The dire living condition of the people
brought hundreds, if not thousands, to march on the streets in September
last year, when the junta suddenly hiked fuel prices in August, which hit
the people hard.

But, the military regime, which has a tradition of coming down heavily on
any anti-government protests, brutally cracked down on the demonstrators
led by Buddhist monks, killing at least 31 people and arresting thousands,
according to the United Nations.

As a cover up to the crackdown, the junta appointed a liaison officer,
Aung Kyi, to mediate between detained opposition leader Daw Aung San Suu
Kyi and junta supremo Than Shwe. It is being viewed as a move to fool the
international community as well as the Burmese people that the junta is
kick starting a process of political reform.

However, after the fifth round of talks, Daw Aung San Suu Kyi said her
discussions with Aung Kyi yielded no hope for the reconciliation process
and that she is dissatisfied with the talks.

Not long after the Daw Aung San Suu Kyi's statement, the junta on February
9 declared that it will hold a referendum on the constitution, which took
14 years to lay down the guidelines in a national convention, and to hold
election in 2010.

Critics, however, slam the junta's announcement as yet another tactic to
prolong its rule in the country.

"In order to aim for democratic reforms, the junta must first respect the
peoples' will and reflect them in the constitution," Thein Nyunt said.

____________________________________

February 18, Narinjara News
Sittwe students protest bus fair increase

About 50 students in Sittwe staged a demonstration on 13 February after
authorities doubled their school bus fare, reports a student from Sittwe.

He said, "We went to the university by foot on that day to show our
feelings about the increased bus fare, and about 50 students joined in the
demonstration."

During the walk, many streets were blocked after trafficked stopped due to
the students' demonstration.

The news of the demonstration spread quickly in the state capital; high
authorities came to the students on the street and requested they stop
their demonstration. They promised the bus fare would be reduced promptly.

"We stopped our demonstration after the authority promised to reduce the
bus fare within a short period of time," the student said.

The school bus fare was reduced suddenly from 100 kyat back to 50 kyat
soon after the student demonstration arose in the streets of Sittwe.

The authority also attempted to increase the school bus fare last year but
later reduced it back to normal because many students opposing the fare
increase staged similar demonstrations in the streets.

____________________________________

February 18, Mizzima News
Two journalists arrested in Rangoon - Nem Davies

Two journalists from a Rangoon based weekly publication 'Myanmar Nation'
were picked up on Friday for interrogation.

The local authorities from Thingangyun Township, Rangoon came to their
office and took away Chief Editor Thet Zin and Manager Sein Win Maung on
Friday evening.

"At about 5 p.m. on Friday, local authorities came and searched our
office. They then took away Ko Thet Zin and Manager U Sein Win Maung at
about 9 p.m. for interrogation. They are now in Thingangyun police
lockup," he said told Mizzima.

Officials found and seized a copy of the Burmese translation of UN Special
Rapporteur for Human Rights Mr. Pinheiro's report, a VCD of the September
demonstrations led by monks and a copy of 'Let's build inseparable Union'
written by Shan ethnic leader Shwe Ohn, from the office.

Again a police officer and five policemen from Thingangyun police station
came to the office in mufti this morning and searched for about three
hours, seizing data from Chief Editor's office computer.

Khin Swe Myint, spouse of Thet Zin, confirmed her husband's arrest and
said that they are being interrogated at the Township police station.

"I don't know why they were taken away from their Journal office. I asked
the policemen who came and searched the office this morning again. They
only said that they came under instruction from higher authorities and
they will submit their report following the search. They just said they
would let me know about the case later," she said to Mizzima.

"I can't imagine why they were taken away from their office. This journal
is being published officially after clearance from the Censor Board. They
didn't do anything which violates any rule or law. I asked Ko Thet Zin
too. He also doesn't have any idea why he was being interrogated," she
added.

The Burma Media Association (BMA) called for the immediate release of Thet
Zin, Sein Win Maung besides author Lay Lay Mun a.k.a. Phu Ngong (Teenage
Magazine), blogger and author Nay Phone Latt, poets Min Han, Nay Htet
Naing and Ko Ko Maung (Zaw Lu Sein) who were also arrested in 2008.

____________________________________

February 18, Democratic Voice of Burma
Authorities ban Dhamma talk in Magwe

Local authorities in Pwint Phyu township, Magwe division, cancelled a
Dhamma talk by a Mandalay abbot on Saturday and told him to leave the
town, local residents said.

Abbot U Thu Mingala of Moegok Wipathana monastery in Mandalay was
conducting a three-day Dhamma talk in the township.

Residents of Kone Zaung village, Pwint Phyu, said the talk had already run
for two days before police came and stopped the event on the third day.

"Local police chief U Sein Win arrived at the location where the talk was
being held at around 2pm on Saturday afternoon and said that U Thu Mingala
has been banned from conducting Dhamma talks," a Kone Zaung villager said.

"He also demanded that the pavilion be demolished and the monk leave town
at once."

Police did not give a reason for the order or show any legal documentation.

Chit Wai San, a local village youth who demanded an explanation for the
cancellation, was punched and arrested by Sein Win.

Police initially denied a request made by U Thu Mingalar to release Chit
Wai San, but later released him after the villagers agreed to pay 100,000
kyat, the villager said.

"The day after, Sein Win demanded 200,000 kyat for Chit Wai San’s
release," he said.

"But the villagers bargained with the police chief and managed to get him
to agree to 100,000."

U Thu Mingala has been recently gained a name among people in the region
for raising controversial issues during his talks.

During the two days of sermons he gave in Pwint Phyu, U Thu Mingala
conducted talks under such titles as, “Time for a change of leader” and
“Do not take the easy path”.

U Thu Mingala has complained he was only passing on the wisdom of Buddhist
teaching in his talks and is now trying to find out on what grounds he has
been banned from conducting talks.

"I did not say anything damaging towards [the government], in fact
everything I said came from Buddhist teachings," said U Thu Mingala.

____________________________________
ON THE BORDER

February 18, Irrawaddy
Hundreds attend Mahn Shah funeral - Violet Cho

Hundreds of mourners, including Karen and members of Burma’s other ethnic
groups, attended the funeral on Monday of Mahn Sha, the leader of the
country’s largest ethnic resistance organization. The funeral was held
near the Thai-Burmese border town of Mae Sot.

Mahn Sha, the highly respected general secretary of the Karen National
Union (KNU), was shot dead by two gunmen at his Mae Sot home on Thursday.
The Irrawaddy’s special correspondent at the funeral, Wai Moe, said
several KNU leaders failed to attend the Buddhist funeral, probably for
security reasons.

Some members of Mahn Sha’s family were also absent.

KNU Chairman Ba Thin Sein and Vice Chairman Tamla Baw and Mahn Sha’s three
children did not attend the funeral. Ba Thin Sein and Tamla Baw have been
in poor health for several months.

Mahn Sha’s two daughters showed up earlier to pay their respects to their
father but they did not attend the funeral ceremony, according to KNU
sources.

The widow of the late Karen leader Gen Saw Bo Mya and his favorite son,
Nerdah Mya, were also not seen among the mourners.

Karen leaders who did attend included Gen Mu Tu, commander in chief of the
Karen National Liberation Army, the military wing of KNU. The large crowd
that followed the rites also included Burmese opposition members in exile,
and some foreigners.

Gen Mu Tu said in a funeral address that Mahn Sha had been assassinated by
unidentified “enemies.” No one has claimed responsibility for the killing,
although many observers, journalists and Mae Sot police have said it could
have been carried out by breakaway Karen factions.

Meanwhile, two US congressmen, Joe Pitts and Trent Franks, offered
eulogies of the slain Karen leader.

“Mahn Sha gave his life to protect the Karen from the incomprehensible
genocide committed against them by the military regime,” said Trent
Franks, who is co-chair of the Congressional Human Rights Caucus Task
Force on International Religious Freedom.

____________________________________

February 16, Irrawaddy
KNU: more leaders targeted for assassination – Saw Yan Naing

Two more senior military leaders of the Karen National Union (KNU) are on
Karen splinter groups’ hit lists, according to KNU sources.

Speaking to The Irrawaddy by phone on Friday and Saturday, a KNU senior
officer said that Gen Mu Tu, commander in chief of the KNU’s military
wing, the Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA), and Brig-Gen Jonny,
commander of KNLA Brigade 7, were targets for assassination by both the
Democratic Karen Buddhist Army (DKBA) and the KNU/KNLA Peace Council.

The claims follow the assassination of Mahn Sha, general secretary of the
KNU, on Thursday.

“Ever since Htain Maung defected, he has always planned to kill the KNU’s
top leaders,” said a KNU source who works closely with the KNU leadership.

Maj-Gen Htain Maung led some 300 soldiers from Brigade 7 in defecting to
the Burmese army in February 2007. His splinter group is now known as
KNU/KNLA Peace Council.

Another KNU source said that speculation had been rife that Mahn Sha was
assassinated by the DKBA, which who split from the rebel coalition in
1995.

Mahn Sha was secretary general of the KNU, an ethnic rebel group that has
been fighting for independence since 1949.

The source said that two days ago before Mahn Sha’s assassination, a DKBA
member named Soe Myint, also known as San Pyote, called a friend of hers
who was living in the same house as Mahn Sha and asked for the address of
his home. San Pyote said that he was interested in buying Mahn Sha's car.

San Pyote belongs to the DKBA Battalion 999.

However, a DKBA source has denied the accusation.

He said, “It is not possible—the DKBA split from the KNU more than 10
years ago. After Mahn Sha was killed, even some of the DKBA’s leadership
called me and asked me what happened.”

Mahn Sha had received phone threats before his assassination, said a Karen
source in Mae Sot.

The source said, “On Karen Revolution Day, an unknown man phoned Mahn Sha
and said to him, ‘I will come and shoot you!’”

KNU sources claim that prior to Thursday’s assassination, about 20 spies
from the DKBA were assigned and deployed in the Mae Sot area for purposes
of assassination. Sources believe the plot to kill Mahn Sha was well
planned weeks in advance.

Assassinations among the KNU, the DKBA and the KNU/KNLA Peace Council have
increased since the defection of Htain Maung’s faction.

After the assassinations of Lt-Col Kyi Linn, a commander of the KNLA, in
August 2007, who met secretly with Lt-Col Min Chit Oo of the Burmese
Southeast Military Affairs Security department, and Col Ler Moo, the
son-in-law of Htain Maung, who was killed last month, Mahn Sha and Jonny
were blamed for masterminding the plots and were targeted for
assassination, a KNU source said.

Meanwhile, opposition groups in exile have accused the Burmese military
regime of being responsible for Mahn Sha’s assassination.

In November 2007, San Pyote tried to kill Brig-Gen Jonny, a KNU official
from Brigade 7.

“All this is enough to make the Burmese government very happy,” Brig-Gen
Jonny told The Irrawaddy. “We Karen people should be unified. If we are
divided, we will never achieve self-determination and the rights we
demand.”

____________________________________
BUSINESS / TRADE

February 18, Democratic Voice of Burma
Rice export restrictions drive up prices

Burmese government restrictions to prevent companies that have not been
approved by the regime from exporting rice are leading to a rise in the
price of rice.

In the past two weeks, the price of a 50kg sack of regular rice has risen
from 14,000 kyat to 16,000 kyat.

A cheaper type of rice has increased in price from 13,000 kyat to 13,500
kyat.

The government has placed restrictions on delivering rice to other
regions, and checkpoints outside Rangoon have been checking that rice is
not being transported by companies who have not been approved by the
government.

Companies with export permits are allowed to buy 500,000 tons of rice in
Irrawaddy division, which has a high rice yield, 100,000 tons in Bago
division and 10,000 tons in Sagaing division.

Rice traders believe that prices could rise even higher if the government
continues to issue permits for rice production.

____________________________________

February 18, Associated Press
Russian company signs gold exploration deal with Burma

A Russian company has signed an agreement with Burma's military government
to search for gold in northwestern Burma, the state-run media reported
Saturday.

Russia's Victorious Glory International Pte Ltd signed the agreement with
Burmese officials on Friday, The New Light of Myanmar newspaper reported.
It said the deal allowed for gold and other mineral exploration along the
Uru River, but it did not elaborate on the details of the agreement.

Areas along the Uru River in Burma's northwestern Sagaing division and
northern Kachin state are known to have rich deposits of gold and other
minerals.

Unlike most Western countries, which slam Burma's human rights record and
its failure to hand over power to a democratically elected government,
Russia has been relatively friendly toward the junta.

A political crisis in Burma attracted world attention last September when
Buddhist monks led the biggest anti-government protests the country had
seen in two decades. The government cracked down sharply and at least 31
people were killed according to a UN investigator, whose tally was much
higher than the toll acknowledged by the junta. Thousands were detained.

At the time, Russia—like China—used its veto power at the United Nations
Security Council to oppose any UN sanctions against the junta, saying that
how Burma dealt with the pro-democracy protests was an internal issue.

Russia also supplies Burma with arms, and Rosatom, the Russian federal
atomic energy agency, signed a deal last May to build a nuclear research
center in the Southeast Asian country.

Many Western countries either ban or discourage investment in Burma as a
way of pressuring its ruling junta.

____________________________________

February 16, Irrawaddy
Weekly business roundup - William Boot

Burma uses Singapore banks to dodge sanctions

Burmese businesses are exporting large quantities of rice to neighboring
Bangladesh using a payment system through Singapore that seeks to avoid
economic sanctions, according to reports.

The military regime has given the green light to the export of up to
400,000 tones of rice. Much of it will be transported by sea from Sittwe
on the Arakan coast to the Bangladesh port of Chittagong.

Burma is cashing in on the ongoing food shortages suffered by its neighbor
in the wake of the devastating cyclone which wrecked large swathes of
Bangladeshi rice cropland.

However, the exporters have told Bangladeshi buyers they will not accept
letters of credit as payment, according to The Nation newspaper in Dhaka.
This is because they fear interference from extended financial sanctions
imposed by the United States and European Union countries, the paper said.

Burma’s ministry of commerce has told the Bangladeshi authorities that
payments for rice should be made by bank transfers via
Singapore—illustrating that the squeaky clean city state is still
condoning business with the Burmese junta.
Bangladesh has recently made overtures to the Burmese regime to improve
relations, including business links. Dhaka last month approached Naypyidaw
about buying Burmese gas to make up for looming energy shortages in
Bangladesh and said in return it could barter agricultural fertilizer.

Money Laundering Warning Issued on Tay Za

Reports that Burmese tycoon Tay Za may have been buying ships in South
Korea have surfaced as a leading regional anti- money laundering expert
urged caution in dealing with the businessman or his companies.

No one should deal with Tay Za—labeled by the U.S. Treasury Department as
a “key financial front man” for the Burmese regime—without “seeking
appropriate professional advice as a matter of some urgency” says Peter
Gallo, who heads Pacific Risk, a Hong Kong-based consultancy on countering
money laundering activities.

Tay Za heads up a list of businesses and associates put on a sanctions
list earlier this month by the U.S. Office of Foreign Assets Control.

The new sanctions against Tay Za, who heads up the Htoo Group, and seven
other Burmese named as close to the military regime—including Khin Lay
Thet, the wife of the No.3 in the hierarchy, Gen. Shwe Mann—“could have
further implications for any companies continuing to deal with Tay Za’s
known associates, particularly in relation to his interests in aviation
and the supply of aircraft parts.”

Thai Govt Moving Forward on Burma Hydro Dams

Suggestions that Thailand’s new government is having second thoughts about
supporting major hydro-electric projects on key Burmese rivers are “rather
unlikely,” according to energy industry analysts.

The Bangkok Post and some news agencies reported that the government of
Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej had “put on hold” two large controversial
hydroelectric schemes on the Salween River in northeast Burma.

The multibillion dollar projects, involving Chinese companies, have been
mired in controversy over environmental damage risks and human rights
abuses including forced evictions of people. Most of the anticipated 8,000
megawatt generating capacity— more than five times Burma’s current total
capacity—is earmarked for Thailand.

“Thailand has already programmed these projects into its future energy
needs,” said industry analyst Sar Watana in Bangkok this week. “And this
government is more pro-business and less environmentally concerned than
its predecessor.

The new prime minister has already stirred environmental controversy by
proposing to siphon off water from the Mekong River to irrigate Thailand’s
northeast.

Gold Prospectors Probe Deeper into Kachin

Along with news of yet another gems auction planned for Rangoon—the third
in the last six months—comes disclosure that elements of the Burmese
military are expanding gold mining in northern Kachin state.

Environmentally damaging gold prospecting has been going on around the
town of Putao, but reports now say that possible rogue officers of the
Northern Command have sanctioned digging higher up the Kasang River.

Methods of gold prospecting in Burma generally cause water and land
pollution through the use of mercury to flush out the precious metal.

A report last year said that the number of gold mining sites in Kachin’s
Hugawng Valley had increased to 31.

Now, new sites are being prospected within about 60 kilometers of the
Chinese border in the vicinity of Naw Mung, says the Kachin News Group.

The report named a Col. Khaing Soe as heading up what it termed “illegal
prospecting.”

The human rights NGO Alternative Asean Network on Burma says in an earlier
report: “Large areas of land are deforested in order to make way for
mining and building necessary infrastructure. The gold mining industry
exposes local people to serious long-term risks from mercury poisoning.”

____________________________________
REGIONAL

February 17, Times of India
India persuades Myanmar to let UN envoy visit

If China was responsible for facilitating UN envoy Ibrahim Gambari's visit
to Myanmar in 2007, India will take charge this year. After foreign
secretary Shiv Shankar Menon's quiet visit to Yangon earlier this month,
Myanmar's military rulers have reportedly been persuaded to let Gambari
return to the country.

If all goes well, Gambari might go back to Myanmar capital Naypyidaw by
March. During his recent visit to New Delhi, Gambari told TOI, "Last time,
China facilitated my trip to Myanmar. This time, I believe it will be
India." Gambari is expected to visit China in February. Asked when he
would make his next trip to Myanmar, Gambari said, "The Myanmar government
has indicated I could visit in April. But that's too far away, about six
months after my last trip. I want to go there much earlier than that." In
fact, India has reason to quietly cheer its Myanmar policy.

India made it clear it didn't want sanctions. But it also stood behind
Gambari mission. India's resistance to sanctions on Myanmar was matched by
China's which also refused to entertain the thought of similar curbs.
Besides, the recent sanctions by the European Union have had the
predictable effect - the rulers in Mynamar have been spared but poor
textile workers and gems and jewellery workers have been deeply affected.
In fact, this call for sanctions has, in a way, rebound on Aung San Suu
Kyi herself, because many of those affected by the sanctions are
apparently her supporters.

This is a reality that has become clear to the sanctioning countries,
which has consequently diluted the western appetite for sanctions. It
showed in Gambari's more "nuanced" attitude to the Myanmar issue recently.
He was clear that the UN would not get involved in bilateral relations
with Myanmar. And in fact, India will show its independence when
Myanmarese strongman, Gen Maung Aye, arrives here in April to sign the
'Kaladan' multi-modal transport project to be executed by this country.

India in its turn has promised to help steer the Myanmar rulers to work
out a more inclusive and comprehensive national reconciliation. Gambari is
expected to push for permission to let aid workers in the education and
health sectors work among Myanmar's poor.

____________________________________

February 18, Reuters
Japan to accept Burmese refugees

Japan will accept a small number of the refugees from Burma now sheltering
in Thailand, a rare move for a country known for keeping its gates tightly
closed to asylum seekers, a newspaper reported on Monday.

Dozens of refugees will be allowed into Japan next year from among the
Burmese that have fled across the border to Thailand, fearing persecution
in their homeland, the Yomiuri Shimbun said.

An official at the Immigration Bureau said the matter was under
consideration and nothing had been decided.

Accepting refugees from a third country may deflect criticism of Japan for
what activists say is overly strict assessment of asylum cases.

Last year Japan approved 41 of 816 applications from asylum seekers and
allowed a further 88 applicants to stay for humanitarian reasons, although
they were not officially recognized as refugees.

In the same period, France accepted about 10,900 refugees, the United
Kingdom 6,300 and the United States 23,296, according to the United
Nations.

Though extremely low in comparison with other industrialized countries,
Japan's figures have risen sharply since the 1990s, when the number of
refugees accepted annually remained in single figures for almost a decade.

Last week Burma rebel leader Mahn Sha was shot dead at his home in Mae
Sot, a Thai border town that has become home to many Burma refugees. The
UN estimates that about 140,000 refugees have fled to Thailand.

____________________________________

February 18, Straits Times
Japanese team heads to Myanmar on journalist's killing: official

A Japanese team headed on Monday to Myanmar to investigate last year's
killing of a Japanese journalist who was slain while filming an
anti-government rally led by Buddhist monks, an official said.

The team, which includes foreign ministry officials and police, will hold
about a day of talks in Yangon on the death of video journalist Kenji
Nagai.

While diplomats have headed to Yangon previously over the case, it is
believed to be the first time that police are taking part.

Japanese officials will 'ask for further explanations on the case from
Myanmar officials,' a foreign ministry official told reporters.

In particular, he said the team would discuss an autopsy conducted in
Japan showing that the journalist was likely shot dead from a close range
of just within one metre, the official said.

Nagai, 50, worked for APF News, a small agency based in Tokyo that
specialises in reports from danger zones where most Japanese television
networks dare not tread.

Mr Nagai was killed on September 27 as troops cracked down on rising
pro-democracy protests led by Buddhist monks.

Television footage showed him apparently being shot at close range by
security forces.

Japan cancelled nearly five million dollars in aid to Myanmar in protest
against the crackdown and the killing of the reporter.

But Japan, in a rare break with its Western allies, has refused to end aid
completely to Myanmar, preferring the approach of most Asian nations of
trying to engage the military regime.

The United Nations has said at least 31 people were killed during the
peaceful anti-government protests.

____________________________________
INTERNATIONAL

February 18, Reuters
Freeing dissidents seen as vital to Myanmar transition

Myanmar's military government should free opposition leader Aung San Suu
Kyi and all other political prisoners to show it is serious about the
transition to civilian rule, the European Union said on Monday.

EU foreign ministers noted the generals' February 9 announcement of a
referendum on a new, as yet unfinished, constitution in May to be followed
by a general election in 2010, but warned sanctions could be toughened
without progress on human rights.

The EU tightened sanctions last year after a bloody crackdown in September
on peaceful pro-democracy protests led by Buddhist monks. The steps
targeted 1,207 firms and expanded visa bans and asset freezes on the
country's military rulers.

EU External Relations Commissioner Benita Ferrero-Waldner backed the
assessment of U.N. mediator Ibrahim Gambari that the plans announced by
the generals were welcome but "do not yet meet all the expectations".

"We would like to see that both the referendum and the ensuing elections
are steps towards that goal, but they have to be clarified," she told
reporters after the meeting of foreign ministers in Brussels.

"The participation of political parties has to be clear, the electoral
law, the process of free and fair elections itself."

The full participation of the opposition and ethnic groups was vital to
reconciliation and stability and urged a more inclusive political
dialogue.

"This requires of course as one of the major bases of conditions the
release of Aung San Suu Kyi and of course all the other political
prisoners," she said.

The generals last held elections in 1990, but ignored them when Suu Kyi's
National League for Democracy won by a landslide.

Opposition figures and some Western countries have voiced scepticism that
the junta will be willing to let the opposition compete in the vote or to
relinquish power.

The EU ministers called on the generals to re-admit Gambari and U.N. human
rights expert Sergio Pinheiro. Ferrero-Waldner said it was important
Gambari be allowed back in to Myanmar before April and have full
cooperation from the authorities.

Gambari last week criticised Myanmar's extension of the house arrest of
top Suu Kyi ally Tin Oo but said the generals might allow him to visit
sooner than a proposed mid-April date.

(Reporting by David Brunnstrom; Editing by Jon Boyle)

____________________________________

February 18, Reuters
Gambari starts Asian tour

UN envoy to Burma Ibrahim Gambari expressed optimism on Monday as he
started his latest round of visits to Asian capitals seeking a solution to
the former Burma's political problems.

"I look forward to a very constructive and, as usual, frank exchange of
views," Gambari told Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Beijing.

"So that by the end of my round of consultations, which will take me to
Indonesia, Singapore and Japan, I'll be able to report to the Secretary
General that we are moving forward and adding to (a) kind of positive
development... in Myanmar [Burma]," he added.

Gambari sees regional powers as central to pushing Burma into political
concessions, but they have been reluctant to agree to sanctions or other
tough measures.

That is especially true of China, one of the military-ruled country's few
foreign friends.

The junta made a surprise announcement earlier this month of a referendum
on a new, as yet unfinished, constitution in May to be a followed by a
general election in 2010.

But opposition figures and some Western countries have voiced skepticism
the junta will be willing to let the opposition compete in the vote or to
relinquish power.

"I believe we are now in a critical phase in terms of development(s) in
Myanmar, in terms of Burma's relations with neighbouring countries, with
Asean, with the international community," Gambari said.

Burma carried out a bloody crackdown on monk-led pro-democracy
demonstrators in September.

Beijing joined Western powers in deploring Burma's crushing of the
protests in a statement by the UN Security Council.

But China has stressed the statement did not mean it would stomach harsher
action or legally binding UN resolutions against Burma, where it has major
economic and strategic stakes.

____________________________________

February 16, Irrawaddy
Ban Ki-moon briefs Bush on Burma - Lalit K Jha

The United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon briefed US President
George W Bush on Friday on the latest developments in Burma following the
military government’s announcement of a constitutional referendum and
general elections in the country.

UN diplomatic sources told The Irrawaddy that Burma was one of the topics
discussed on Friday during the meeting of the two leaders at the White
House in Washington.

“On Myanmar [Burma], the secretary-general briefed President Bush on the
work of his special adviser, Ibrahim Gambari,” said Marie Okabe, a
spokesperson for the secretary-general.

In brief remarks to reporters after the meeting, Bush said: “I appreciate
your [Ban’s] tireless work to help solve some of the real humanitarian
crises that we face, such as the crisis in Sudan, [and] the issues in
Burma.”

In an October statement, the UN Security Council urged the military junta
to release all political prisoners including Aung San Suu Kyi, start a
dialogue with pro-democracy groups and include opposition groups in the
constitution drafting process. None of the criteria has been met by the
military junta so far.

This was the first discussion between the two leaders since Burma
announced last week its decision to hold a referendum in May and
multi-party general elections in 2010.

Last week, the Bush Administration imposed additional sanctions on
supporters of the military government in Burma.

____________________________________
OPINION / OTHER

February 16, Irrawaddy
Don't push NLD into a corner - Min Zin [News Analysis]

The present political crisis in Burma could be a model from William L. Ury
and Richard Smoke’s political science thesis, “Anatomy of a Crisis”—a
situation of “high stakes, short time, high uncertainty and narrowing
options.”

In the pragmatic world of realpolitik, it means the opposition movement in
Burma is now facing a serious predicament.

When the military regime made the surprise announcement to set a timeline
for a referendum in May and a general election in 2010, the opposition
groups were caught off guard.

The junta decisively moved ahead with its own “Road Map” and ignored the
persistent calls of opposition groups and the UN-led international
community to modify the draft constitution and make the political process
inclusive.

The political moral ground of the opposition movement, inside the country
as well as in exile, has been based on the legitimacy of the 1990 election
results in which the National League for Democracy (NLD) won a landslide
victory that has never been honored.

The opposition activists are now forced to prove the victory of 1990
election remains relevant in upcoming months. The stakes rise, indeed.

Several grassroots opposition groups, including the influential 88
Generation Students group and the Alliance of All Burmese Buddhist Monks,
recently vowed to launch a "Vote No” campaign against the regime's
constitution. But many activists privately admit that the time crunch
makes it difficult for them to mobilize a nationwide movement.

The military government's statement regarding the referendum and
subsequent elections was vague and shrouded with uncertainties.

Furthermore, the regime has not revoked Law 5/96 of 1996, which provides
for up to 20 years imprisonment for anyone who criticizes the government’s
national convention and its constitution drafting effort.

To add to the dilemma, many ordinary people do not understand what a “Vote
No” campaign really means—whether they are expected to boycott the
referendum by shunning the poll stations or they have to physically vote
against the constitution.

At the end of the day, no one knows what the regime will do if the public
votes against their draft constitution.

"Will they spend another 20 years rewriting another constitution?”
questioned a private tutor in Rangoon. "If so, enough is enough. I would
rather just go for the flawed constitution."

The high level of uncertainty appears to weaken the opposition's message
and game plan.

Even with such high stakes, the time crunch and all the uncertainties, the
crisis would be less severe if the opposition had options.

"People must stand up against the referendum and say no to the regime's
constitution," said Aung Thu Nyein, a Burmese analyst in exile. "I support
the actions of the grassroots organizations, but they must make it clear
that it is not a boycott against the referendum. The public must go to the
polling stations and vote ‘No.’”

Several opposition activists and journalists have taken it a step further.
They have called on the NLD to announce a clear policy to direct the
public on the referendum issue and to take the initiative in the "Vote No”
campaign.

Aung Thu Nyein disagrees. “It is not feasible to urge the NLD to lead the
public in mobilizing a Vote No” campaign. The NLD must be flexible,” he
said.

However, as long as the opposition activists and media view the NLD as the
vanguard of the democracy movement, they will continually push the party
to lead with a resolution at every turn.

But whether or not the NLD's current leadership—not forgetting the
implications of Aung San Suu Kyi's long absence—remains at the forefront
of the democracy movement will be called into question. The nature of the
September uprising indicated that the NLD was not playing a leading role.

More importantly, it is a time for different political forces to play
significant positions with a mature understanding of one another. The NLD
should not run the risk of staking their political future on viewing the
referendum—step four of the seven-step “Road Map”—as the final
battleground.

“We have stated clearly from the beginning that we are against the
undemocratic nature of the national convention and the draft
constitution," Nyan Win, the NLD spokesman, announced in the wake of the
government’s statement. “We will probably release our policy by the end of
this month. But we don't think the referendum is the final fight for us.”

The NLD will continue to condemn the regime's draft constitution as
unacceptable and to demand a free and fair referendum, but at the same
time they want to appear to keep all options open, instead of totally
rejecting the government’s Road Map or openly advocating a “Vote No”
campaign.

Short of a better alternative, it seems to be the most pragmatic policy
the party can adopt.

If the NLD sees the referendum as a final showdown and walks away from the
Road Map, the party will very likely be sidelined from mainstream politics
in future. If the NLD decide to engage in a “do or die” fight, the regime
will gladly get into the ring and work at putting the opposition party out
of action for good.

In truth, the NLD seems to be aware of this scenario and are determined to
remain on legal ground.

"If the public approves the draft constitution in a credible referendum,
we will respect the public's decision," said Nyan Win.

The NLD spokesman even hinted that the party does not reject the
possibility of running for a fresh election in 2010, if the public decides
to go ahead with the Road Map.

“Burma's road to democracy would be long term, independent of our
activists' wishes for radical change," said Tin Maung Than, a well-known
Burmese writer and analyst in exile. "The military, as a whole and as an
institution, is not in a position to accept such a change. Burma needs
some structural adjustment to lure a significant part of the military to
cooperate with the people."

Naturally, the public—led by grassroots activists—must push in that
direction. A mass movement will always be needed to bring about that
change.

The people of Burma should support the “Vote No” campaign against the
draft constitution. If the fight is won, it may prompt a shake up in
Naypyidaw. The military government would be forced to reconfigure their
options. Combined with international pressure, a new opportunity for
dialogue might present itself.

Whether this particular fight is won or not, the NLD must prepare to go
on. In politics, a crisis can be cleverly managed with a well calculated
strategic move.

____________________________________

February 18, The Nation
Burmese junta hedges its bets for the future - Kavi Chongkittavorn

The leaders of Burma's military junta understand the game of realpolitik
very well. They knew when they announced a plan to hold a national
referendum in May and an election in 2010 that there would be a mixed
chorus of support and dissent. In the end, they gathered that it does not
matter what transpires so long as the regime shows there is some movement
- at a snail's pace though it might be - towards democracy. This is the
strategy the junta leaders have mastered since losing the election in May
1990. They certainly hope that they will be able to muddle along and in
the process gain more space and time to work on their own schemes.

While it must have been easy to predict what Western countries as well as
China and India would say about the political timeframe, Asean's reaction
would have been more difficult to guess. However, Asean secretary-general
Surin Pitsuwan has set a cautious tone by saying it was a good beginning.

The US and European Union, which have called for more assistance, dialogue
and targeted sanctions towards Burma, expressed dismay at the development,
as it did not take into account opposition groups led by Aung San Suu Kyi
and other stakeholders. UN efforts were also ignored. At the other end,
China and India, as Burma's two major supporters, are certain to view
Rangoon's timetable as concrete progress. International pressure to link
the summer Olympic Games in Beijing with China's Burmese policy is
increasing by the day, but it will not yield any results.

Caught in between the two groups and faced with a Catch-22 situation is
Asean. At the moment, there is no uniform approach towards the Burmese
crisis. One must not treat Asean's expression of "repulsion" against Burma
last September as a reflection of growing impatience among its members. If
that were the case, the grouping would have engaged more with the UN and
the international community in pushing for change.

At the moment, only the Philippines has maintained a hardline approach
seeking the release of Suu Kyi and other political prisoners as well as
improved human rights. Indonesia has been critical of Burma, but has not
gone as far as the Philippines. Jakarta is presently focused on drafting
the terms of reference that will produce a respectable and independent
human-rights body in Asean. This would serve as a prerequisite for the
Charter's ratification by the grouping's largest member.

Singapore's attitude towards Burma has been the most intriguing. After
orchestrating the strongest statement ever to come from an Asean foreign
ministerial meeting since Rangoon joined Asean in 1997, the island nation
has apparently thrown in the towel after failing to move the national
reconciliation process forward as it had hoped at the last Asean Summit.

Now any change in Asean's attitude towards Burma will be the
responsibility of the next Asean chair, Thailand, which will succeed
Singapore in July. That could be problematic. With the current government
under Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej, the Burmese policy adopted during
the Thaksin years will be revived. Bangkok is quite determined to back the
Burmese road map all the way despite increasing pressure from the
international community to do more. Foreign Minister Noppadon Pattama's
inaugural comments on Burma - that the political situation there was an
internal matter - were uncalled for, as they completely overlooked the
international dynamics of the situation, including the UN's mediating
role.

It will be interesting to see if history repeats itself.

At the Asean Summit held in Phnom Penh in 2003, it was former prime
minister Thaksin Shinawatra who successfully convinced other Asean leaders
to give newly installed prime minister Khin Nyunt a chance to prove his
leadership and his democratic road map. As it turned out, Thaksin's overt
favouritism, both in matters of diplomacy and business, with Khin Nyunt
played a role in the latter's downfall.

Both the US and the EU, which have been consistently at odds with Thailand
over its Burma policy since 2001, have made it clear in private meetings
with the new government that if Thailand does not support the ongoing
international campaign, it should not make any attempts to undermine it.
As the Asean chair and a front-line state to Burma, what Thai leaders say
on Burma is closely scrutinised.

It would not be surprising to see a dramatic effort between Thailand and
Burma to improve bilateral relations in the weeks and months ahead of the
Asean ministerial meeting in Bangkok. There is a strong possibility that
Samak might make a quick and discreet trip there in the near future.
Several pending loans could be revived and new programmes initiated that
would benefit both the junta and former prime minister Thaksin's cronies.

Another important factor is the growing confidence the new members are
showing in shaping future Asean policies, especially as regards the
non-interference principle. The drafting of the Asean Charter and its
outcome demonstrated the tenacity and iron will of new members towards
protecting the status quo. That was just the beginning.

The Burmese junta will again enjoy a win-win situation if Thailand and new
Asean members vote to support their political reforms and time frame.