BurmaNet News, May 14, 2008

[Editor]

May 14, 2008 Issue #3466


INSIDE BURMA
AP: Red Cross: Burma cyclone death toll could go up to 128K
Irrawaddy: NLD slams plan for May 24 referendum vote
Mizzima News: Cyclone survivors told to make room for voters
BBC News: 'No access' to Burma cyclone zone
DVB: Mandalay abbots reach Rangoon with relief supplies

BUSINESS / TRADE
AP: UN warns of rice shortage in Myanmar as planting season approaches

HEALTH / AIDS
AFP: Aid-wary Burma allows medics in

ASEAN
Irrawaddy: Activists urge Asean to be proactive

REGIONAL
Irrawaddy: Burma seeks help from neighbors

INTERNATIONAL
Mizzima News: EU Aid Commissioner to press for access to cyclone-hit delta
DVB: UN says relief effort still facing restrictions

OPINION / OTHER
Irrawaddy: Burma’s displaced people a long-term problem
DVB: Junta divides and rules
NYT: Shame on the Junta [Editorial]
Asia Times: The problem with dictators and disasters



____________________________________
INSIDE BURMA

May 14, Associated Press
Red Cross: Burma cyclone death toll could go up to 128K

The Red Cross says the death toll in Burma's cyclone may be between 68,833
and 127,990.

The government revised its death toll Wednesday to 38,491 and the number
of missing to 27,838. But the International Federation of Red Cross and
Red Crescent Societies said the number of people killed is probably
between 68,833 and 127,990.

The Red Cross said it arrived at the figure by pooling and extrapolating
assessments by 22 other aid groups and organizations in 58 townships. The
total affected population is estimated to be between 1.6 million and 2.5
million, it said.

U.N. humanitarian chief John Holmes also reported the same number for the
affected population. He said the death toll could be "in the region of
100,000 or even more."

The report issued Wednesday noted that "official government casualty
figures remain significantly lower."

The government says 34,273 people were killed and 27,838 are missing in
the May 2-3 Cyclone Nargis.

The Red Cross figure is the highest reported so far. The U.N. has said the
number of dead could be between 60,000 and 100,000.

____________________________________

May 14, Irrawaddy
NLD slams plan for May 24 referendum vote – Wai Moe

The National League for Democracy (NLD) has condemned the Burmese military
government’s plan to go ahead with the constitutional referendum on May 24
in the devastated areas affected by Cyclone Nargis.

The NLD, one of Burma’s leading opposition groups, said in a statement on
Wednesday the party has information that the junta will go ahead with its
plan to hold the referendum on May 24 in 40 townships in Rangoon Division
and seven townships in the Irrawaddy delta.

 “It is not the right time to hold the referendum in the cyclone-hit
region because people are dying and still struggling. Diseases are
spreading day by day,” said an NLD statement. “The State Peace and
Development Council [the official junta title] has responsibility for the
lives of the survivors.”

The NLD said the government should concentrate on humanitarian work among
the survivors.

A member of the NLD disaster committee, Aye Kyu, who is now in Laputta,
said diarrhea is widespread in the township and many people, especially
children, are living in trauma.

A Burmese doctor who recently returned from Laputta, one of the worst-hit
areas, told The Irrawaddy on Wednesday that up to seven survivors died
every day at emergency relief camps in the town. Homeless survivors are
also staying at monasteries, temples and schools. About 100,000 survivors
are in the town, he said.

The doctor said authorities seized medicine and medical equipment from
volunteer Burmese medical workers in Laputta. The medicine and equipment
were provided by Merlin, an international nongovernmental organization
(INGO) operating in Burma.

A staffer from an INGO in Rangoon that works on aid operations, said, “We
can't give any support directly to the community.”

The junta-backed newspaper, The New Light of Myanmar, on Wednesday
published photographs showing survivors giving the two-handed sign of
respect, usually reserved for the Buddha, to Lt-Gen Myint Swe, who
inspected a relief camp in Hlaingthayar Township in Rangoon.

The European Union urged the Burmese military junta on Tuesday to allow
relief supplies and aid workers access to the 1.5 million people facing
hunger and disease in the aftermath of cyclone.

France, Britain and Germany have called for governments to deliver aid to
cyclone victims without the military junta’s agreement, if necessary.

“We have called for ‘responsibility to protect’ to be applied in the case
of Burma,” the French junior Human Rights Minister, Rama Yade, said on
Tuesday.

____________________________________

May 14, Irrawaddy
Authorities harass local NGOs, private donors – Min Lwin

Burma’s military government is hindering and even blocking local people
from sending aid to the victims of cyclone Nargis, adding to the
frustration and anger sweeping the nation.

Donors have contacted The Irrawaddy, complaining that security forces
monitored their activities and interrogated them when they attempted to
hand over food and water to cyclone survivors in Rangoon and the Irrawaddy
delta.

Some said they had been told all aid must be channeled through the
military. Rangoon sources said the local authorities and members of the
junta-backed Union Solidarity and Development Association (USDA)
intimidated private donors attempting to deliver relief supplies. Donors
were reportedly ordered to hand over the aid to USDA members.

In Mandalay, Monywa and Sagaing, residents are being told by the local
authorities not to collect donations.

In Rangoon, one volunteer, Soe Kyi, was stopped by local officials in
suburban Thaketa Township, and asked if he had obtained permission from
authorities in Naypyidaw to distribute aid.

When members of the Rangoon-based private charity “Free Funeral Services
Society (FFSS)" attempted to buy dried fish for cyclone victims in
Rangoon's Bayint Naung wholesale market, they were approached by
plainclothes military officers, who also questioned a shop owner.

The FFSS is led by a popular regime opponent, actor-turned-social worker
Kyaw Thu, who earned government displeasure and a month’s jail sentence
when he joined in last September’s demonstrations.

The FFSS normally provides free funerals for people who can’t afford the
cost, but since the cyclone struck it has diverted its energies to helping
the cyclone victims.

Apart from putting obstacles in the way of aid deliveries, local
authorities are harassing survivors, forcing them to leave the refuge of
monasteries. Soldiers took part in ejecting homeless people from
monasteries in Rangoon’s Hlaingtharyar Township.

Meanwhile, contracts are already being issued to local companies to
rebuild destroyed houses, government buildings and schools in the
Irrawaddy delta.

The Htoo Trading Company, favored by the military regime, received several
contracts to rebuild schools and houses in Bogalay and Dedaye townships.

Htoo Company is owned by Tay Za, a wealthy tycoon who is among the regime
cronies on a US government sanctions list. Tay Za has been visiting
cyclone-hit areas of the Irrawaddy delta to inspect reconstruction sites.

____________________________________

May 14, Mizzima News
Cyclone survivors told to make room for voters – Nem Davies

Cyclone survivors in a Rangoon suburb have been ordered out of a temporary
shelter so that it can be used as a polling station on May 24.

The 57 people whose homes were destroyed are staying in a community hall
(dama joun) in San-Yeik-Nyein Quarter, South Dagon Township, Rangoon
Division. The hall is normally used for religious purposes and ceremonies
such as weddings.

But the survivors were told to move out four days before the
constitutional referendum, which was postponed in areas hard hit by
Cyclone Nargis.

"May 20th is the last day to move out of the place, because they want to
use the building as a ballot station," said a person taking care of the
survivors.

Local authorities informed the person five days ago when they brought food
donations for the homeless. "But they did not say anything about where to
move to. We have to wait for some days because it is still many days until
the referendum," the person said.

Despite widespread damage from Cyclone Nargis, the junta-backed Union
Solidarity and Development Association (USDA) and Township Quarter level
authorities have been collecting "advance votes" from some residents in
South Dagon. The advance voting began the day after the cyclone.

The door-to-door advance polling was originally intended as a convenience
for the elderly and those planning to travel out of the city. But now
everyone is asked to cast a ballot ahead of the official poll date,
residents said.

Eligible voters have to cast ballots whether they want to or not, yet they
have no choice but to say 'yes.' "It's not secret. You have to give your
ballot to the authorities," a Dagon Township resident said.

USDA members Saw Naing, Tin Maung Than, Nyi Kyaw, Myint Than and Aung
Myint Htay are collecting votes in this way, residents said.

"The authorities are only thinking about holding on to power and they do
not think about helping people those who are in trouble and mentally
disturbed by the cyclone," said a resident from Sanchaung Township in
Rangoon Division.

Many Rangoon residents are frustrated at the junta's priorities. "I would
not vote for them," said a resident from Sanchaung Township. "I could not
support them when we do not have food at home."

The government-owned newspaper, the New Light of Myanmar, reported
Wednesday that 34,273 people were killed, 1,403 people were injured and
27,838 people were missing after the cyclone, which struck May 2 and 3.
But aid workers and UN agencies put the death toll at more than 100,000.

The junta went ahead with a nationwide referendum to approve a draft
constitution on May 10, but delayed voting in 47 townships in Rangoon and
the worst-hit Irrawaddy Delta regions.

Critics say the charter will perpetuate military power, but the junta says
it is part of a transition to a "disciplined democracy."


____________________________________

May 14, BBC News
'No access' to Burma cyclone zone

Burma's junta has tightened access to areas hit by Cyclone Nargis, despite
pleas to allow in foreign aid workers.

A UN official says the regime has erected more checkpoints to ensure
foreigners cannot reach affected areas.

The latest official figures put the death toll at almost 38,500 with
27,838 more missing, state radio said.

The UN says up to 2.5m people need urgent aid and has called a meeting of
regional and donor nations to discuss "all options" on aid.

UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said Wednesday's meeting of donors and
the Association of South-East Asian Nations would discuss the
"mobilisation of resources and aid workers".

He "regretted" the UN had spent much of its time arranging rather than
delivering help.

"Even though the [Burmese] government has shown some sense of flexibility,
at this time it's far, far too short," he said.

Meanwhile, forecasters say another cyclone is forming off Burma's coast.

The Hawaii-based Joint Typhoon Warning Center said on its website that "a
significant tropical cyclone" could develop in the next 24 hours.

Dire warnings

Aid agencies are warning that the ruling generals' refusal to sanction a
major international relief effort will cause more deaths.

Chris Kaye, the Burma director for the UN's World Food Programme, said the
generals were trying to ensure no foreigners were allowed into the
affected areas by beefing up security on checkpoints.

"There is absolutely no progress in getting foreign experts out into the
field," he said.

Undercover reporter says aid is still in short supply in Burma

Aid agencies fear the death toll could be far higher than official estimates.

The Red Cross said it had studied figures from 22 organisations and warned
the toll could be as high as 128,000.

UN humanitarian affairs chief John Holmes said the organisation had
revised up its estimate of 1.5m people "severely affected" by the cyclone
to between 1.6m and 2.5m.

Thai leader Samak Sundaravej held talks with the junta, but failed to
broker a deal on access for foreigners.

Mr Samak flew to Rangoon for talks with Burmese Prime Minister Thein Sein,
aimed at persuading the junta to allow more foreign aid workers access.

But he said Gen Thein was adamant the military needed no outside help.

"He insisted that his country with 60 million people has a government, its
people and the private sector to tackle the problem by themselves," Mr
Samak told reporters in Bangkok after his day trip to Burma.

EU envoy Louis Michel is heading for Burma for a three-day visit, where he
says he will urge the generals "to be more open-minded and more
understanding".

But he told the AFP news agency that his chances of success were "slight".

The continuing diplomatic efforts come amid more dire warnings of the
consequences of the cyclone.

The UN's food agency says Burma will face food shortages if farmers cannot
return to their fields in the next 90 days.

"If we are not able to plant before the monsoon, we will have a serious
shortage of rice in the country," said Leon Gouws, of the Food and
Agriculture Organisation.

Another UN body, the International Organisation for Migration, says it may
already be too late to save the many victims who are in need of aid.

"Maybe we should already be looking at rebuilding projects instead of
emergency relief," said the IOM's Chris Lom.

"There's been an opportunity lost - in terms of immediate response, maybe
we're too late for that."

Residents have told the BBC's Burmese service how private citizens have
been trying to distribute water and supplies from their own cars - but
soldiers have been confiscating the goods.

A BBC correspondent in Burma described aid delivery as "unco-ordinated and
piecemeal".

He said one devastated village - with one-quarter of its 400 houses left
standing - had received just one bag of rice from the government.

____________________________________

May 14, Democratic Voice of Burma
Mandalay abbots reach Rangoon with relief supplies – Naw Phay Saw

Four abbots from Maha Gandaryon monastery in Mandalay arrived in Rangoon
today with two vanloads of aid to help victims living in
cyclone-devastated Rangoon and Irrawaddy divisions.

More monks from Bago and Magwe are due to arrive this evening and tomorrow
morning, according to famous comedian Zaganar.

He said that monks had planned to go on the ground to join relief efforts
in person and cooperate with celebrities from Burmese film industry who
have been working effectively to provide aid to people in the worst-hit
areas.

DVB interviewed Zaganar about the monks’ plan in detail.

Zaganar: Senior abbots from Mandalay’s Maha Gandaryon monastery came to
Rangoon today. They brought along two vans loaded mostly with rice,
onions, beans, salt and some clothing to provide to cyclone victims in
Rangoon and Irrawaddy Divisions.

They also brought some cash with them to give to needy people. They plan
to go on the ground to meet people in persons and offer Buddhist teaching.

Tomorrow, they want to go to Pantanaw and Latputta in the Irrawaddy delta
and to some monasteries in East Dagon where victims are currently taking
shelter, to donate food and other supplies. They also want to visit areas
located next to the sea but I am not sure if I can rent a boat to take
them there.

DVB: Are they all senior abbots?

Zaganar: Yes, I would say they are. Two abbots are 52 years old and the
other two are 38 and 32. Some abbots from Hlaing Tharyar have also joined
them so they should be able to organize their relief efforts.

DVB: Are there more monks coming to join in with relief work?

Zaganar: Yes, there will be more monks coming. We were just told on the
phone that abbots from Bago would be coming. Also, abbots from Minbu and
Magwe told us on the phone that they would be driving to Rangoon this
evening with aid for cyclone victims.

DVB: Where did you provide aid today? Zaganar: Two groups have gone to
Daydaye and Kongyankone in Irrawaddy delta today and they have already
arrived there. They have distributed aid to villagers living in nine
villages in Kongyankone and someone just told me on the phone that they
were building tanks for villagers.


____________________________________
BUSINESS / TRADE

May 14, Associated Press
UN warns of rice shortage in Myanmar as planting season approaches

Cyclone-battered Myanmar faces prolonged food shortages if farmers are not
able to return to their fields in the next 90 days and start planting
their next rice crop ahead of monsoon rains, a U.N. food agency warned
Wednesday.

The Rome-based Food and Agriculture Organization said Myanmar's Ministry
of Agriculture estimated that 3.95 million acres (1.6 million hectares) of
rice fields were damaged by the May 3 cyclone which killed tens of
thousands of people and forced hundreds of thousands of farmers off their
flood-ravaged land, especially in the Irrawaddy delta.

"If we are not able to plant before the monsoon, we will have a serious
shortage of rice in the country," Leon Gouws, the acting FAO
representative in Myanmar, told The Associated Press. "(The region) is the
main rice producer in Myanmar. It will prolong the emergency and keep the
people dependent on food aid."

Gouws said many of the fields have been inundated with salt water, as many
as 200,000 water buffalo and cattle were killed, and many farm communities
have been totally destroyed.

The Ministry of Agriculture estimates US$243 million (€157 million)
is needed to rehabilitate the rice fields, which produce 65 percent of the
country's rice crop, including funds to buy 50,000 tons of rice seed,
Gouws said. About 6,000 tons of seed would be of a salt-resistant variety.

"We will try to plant as much as possible," he said.

Gouws said the damage to the rice sector could have repercussions across
the region and beyond.

Prices of rice have surged 50 percent in Myanmar's largest city, Yangon,
since the cyclone and Gouws estimated it would continue to impact rice
prices — especially if Myanmar is forced to start importing the staple.

Myanmar has previously produced enough for its own needs and this year was
projected to export 600,000 tons before the cyclone hit.

"A lot of that has been diverted now to in-country needs," Gouws said,
adding that the country has curtailed rice exports to Sri Lanka and
Bangladesh.

"This will feed into the worldwide price rises of commodities, especially
rice," he said.

Earlier in the week, FAO said the devastation in Myanmar may reduce global
rice production. The agency currently is forecasting a record 666 million
tons worldwide this year, an increase of 2.3 percent.

Production in Asia is expected to rise to 605 million tons from 600
million tons, with particularly large increases in Bangladesh, China, the
Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam, FAO said.

Production in Africa is forecast to grow nearly 4 percent to 23.2 million
tons and in Latin America by 7.4 percent to 26 million tons, the agency
said.

Rice production is expected to decline in Australia, the United States and
Europe.

Global rice prices skyrocketed by 76 percent from December to April,
triggered in part by export restrictions in countries worried about food
scarcity. FAO said prices are expected to remain high.


____________________________________
HEALTH / AIDS

May 14, Agence France Presse
Aid-wary Burma allows medics in

Thailand said today that Myanmar’s ruling junta, which has been criticised
for refusing foreign assistance in the aftermath of a cyclone, would allow
30 of its doctors to go and help victims.

The Public Health Ministry said the medics would depart on Friday and stay
for two weeks in Myanmar, whose southwestern Irrawaddy Delta region was
devastated in the disaster.

"We have been informed from the Myanmar foreign ministry that they will
welcome 30 Thai doctors to help cyclone survivors," it said in a
statement.

The team - made up of medics from the Thai Red Cross, the public health
ministry, and a Bangkok hospital - will treat injured victims, work on
disease prevention and offer psychological services.


____________________________________
ASEAN

May 14, Irrawaddy
Activists urge Asean to be proactive – Sai Slip

Activists say the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) must be
more proactive in urging Burma’s military government to open up to
humanitarian relief efforts or face the consequences of a natural and
man-made humanitarian disaster.

Debbie Stothard, the coordinator of Altsean-Burma (Alternative Asean
Network on Burma) told The Irrawaddy on Wednesday that Asean members have
not played a strong leadership role in the aftermath of the cyclone.

“The Asean action is disappointing,” she said. “They have not united and
coordinated a response to the crisis which is growing more and more
serious.”

She said Burma’s stonewalling of international relief efforts could have
long-term consequences on human security in the region, causing waves of
migration to neighboring countries.

Asean, China and India should all take a more proactive, responsible role
in pushing the junta to make the decisions that will help the victims, she
said.

Wittawat Sriwihok, the director of the Asean Department in the Thai
Ministry of Foreign Affair, said on Wednesday that Asean foreign ministers
will meet in Singapore on Monday. Burmese foreign minister Nyan Win is
expected to report on the regime’s disaster relief efforts.

Meanwhile, Surin Pitsuwan, the Asean secretary-general, has contacted the
World Bank and International Monetary Fund to discuss the disaster relief
response. Representatives of Asean are reportedly in Burma assessing the
situation.

A rapid relief team representing Asean, comprising experts in water and
sanitation, health, logistics and food, is reportedly on its way to
Rangoon to work with the Burmese government.

Thailand’s King Bhumibol Adulyadej on Tuesday urged Thai people to help
Cyclone Nargis victims. He said Thais should do their best to help other
people regardless of race and languages, according to a report in the
Bangkok Post on Wednesday.

Thai Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej departed Bangkok on Wednesday to talk
to the military government about allowing international relief workers to
enter the cyclone-stricken country.


____________________________________
REGIONAL

May 14, Irrawaddy
Burma seeks help from neighbors

Burma's junta has approved aid personnel from Bangladesh, China, India and
Thailand to help its relief efforts for victims of Cyclone Nargis, while
still delaying granting visas to many non-Asian experts, a United Nations
official said on Wednesday.

Amanda Pitt, a spokesperson for the United Nations Office for the
Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), told a press conference in
Bangkok: "I think they want 160 personnel from these four places, just
general personnel who are able to come in to bolster the Myanmar [Burmese]
government's relief efforts."

Burma's military government has given permission to a Thai medical team to
enter the cyclone-devastated Irrawaddy delta.

Dr. Thawat Sutharacha of the Public Health Ministry told The Associate
Press that he has received a message from the Burmese Health Ministry that
says the Thai team can conduct medical work.

If the team departs as scheduled on Friday, it will be the first foreign
aid group to work in the Irrawaddy delta.

The junta has declared the area off-limits to foreign relief workers.

Bangladesh, China, India and Thailand all share their border with Burma,
and have been less critical of Burma's military regime than many Western
democracies, some of which have imposed economic sanctions on the country
to punish the junta's frequent crack downs on pro-democracy demonstrations
and its refusal to allow democratic reforms.


____________________________________
INTERNATIONAL

May 14, Mizzima News
EU Aid Commissioner to press for access to cyclone-hit delta – Solomon

The European Union's top aid official will try to see first hand the
extent of damage from Cyclone Nargis while discussing the matter of access
to the region for international relief workers.

EU Commissioner for Development and Humanitarian Aid Louis Michel was
expected to arrive in Burma for a two-day visit from Brussels.

The details of his visit were still being worked out, but he was hoping to
arrive in Rangoon late Wednesday and stay until Friday, said John Clancy,
Michel's spokesman.

"The hope is that he can meet with various key members of the authorities
of Myanmar [Burma]," Clancy, told Mizzima.

Michel would like to meet with humanitarian workers, whether from the UN
or international organizations.

"He would like, if possible 
 to travel to the worst-hit areas so he can
actually witnesses for himself the level of destruction and also assess
with his own eyes the needs that are  required for the people who have
been so devastated by the cyclone," Clancy said.

Burmese authorities have blocked foreign staff from visiting the
hardest-hit regions in the Irrawaddy Delta and are still refusing visas
for international aid workers, with a few exceptions.

Clancy said Michel's key message is "a spirit of open dialogue with the
Myanmar [Burmese] authorities to try and ensure access."

Harn Yawnghwe, director of the European Office for the Development of
Democracy in Burma, said, "They need to make sure aid can reach the hands
of the right people from the right places. This is the way of the EU."

The EU has donated more than 2 million Euros for cyclone survivors. More
than 1.5 million people have been affected by the cyclone, with the death
toll likely to top 100,000, according to aid agencies.

"The most important thing for every donor is not to mix aid with the
political issue," Harn Yawnghwe said. That is the only way to build trust
with the junta.

"The EU wants to show the Burmese government their humanitarian aid is
pure and not political, and they really want to help people," Harn
Yawnghwe said.

Harn Yawnghwe said it was important for aid workers to visit hard-hit
areas to assess the amount of money and type of aid that is actually
needed.

Commissioner Michel said in a statement on Sunday: "The commission is
ready to give more, but the funds won't be of much use without
professional delivery on the ground."

Meanwhile, Thai Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej visited top generals
Wednesday in Naypyitaw in a bid to convince the military to allow in
outside aid workers.

____________________________________

May 14, Democratic Voice of Burma
UN says relief effort still facing restrictions – Htet Aung Kyaw

A United Nations official has said that the aid situation has improved in
Burma, but ongoing government restrictions mean the UN is still unable to
mount a full-scale relief effort.

Richard Horsey, spokesperson for the UN’s Office for the Coordination of
Humanitarian Affairs, said some visas had been issued to UN staff but the
country needed to allow more relief experts in.

“The question is not only about visas, it also depends on access to the
delta and some other cooperation like the necessary equipment and other
things,” Horsey said.

“Much, much more is needed, but there have been some improvements over the
last day or two.”

Burmese nationals who work for UN agencies have been operating in the
delta since the day after the storm, but foreign nationals still need
permission to leave the former capital Rangoon.

“It’s very important that [international experts] can come to Yangon, but
also can if necessary travel to the affected areas to provide the
necessary advice and assistance,” he said.

The aid effort is also being hampered by a lack of boats after 90 percent
of the boats in the delta were damaged or destroyed in the cyclone.

Horsey said the World Food Programme had established logistical hubs in
Labutta and Bogalay, with at least one more planned.

“These are temporary warehouses where food and other things can be stored
and some offices so that the distribution can be done at the local level,”
he said.

“It’s very important to have a logistics base not only in Yangon but also
in the affected areas to [enable] an easy distribution of goods and to
increase the amount of goods that can be distributed.”

Horsey stressed that UN aid was being channelled to camps and settlements
through the UN system and not through the government, and was then being
distributed within the camps.

“Normally it should be bilateral international aid, government to
government, then the Myanmar government distributing that aid,” Horsey
said.

“One thing is that the Myanmar Red Cross is assisting with some
distribution at the local level. So maybe sometimes they are the ones who
are carrying the boxes or helping to move some of the things at the very
local level,” he said.

“But monitoring is done by the UN, and where it is distributed is decided
by the UN and so on, not handed over to the government,” he said.

Horsey also responded to claims that aid supplies have been sold in
markets instead of being given to cyclone survivors, saying there was so
far no evidence of this.

There has been a systematic checking of the markets in Yangon by some
embassies to see if there are any cases of selling aid, and also
interviews with some of the traders and other people at the markets,” he
said.

“So far all of the major markets in Yangon have been checked, and there is
no evidence yet of any aid being sold in any of the main markets in
Yangon,” he went on.

“Of course, it doesn’t mean that it’s not happening anywhere, but it does
mean that it’s not happening at a very high level, otherwise it would be
very easy to find.”

Asked about reports of another cyclone, Horsey said the UN was monitoring
the situation closely and people should expect heavy rains but current
reports did not suggest a cyclone.

"Of course it is the cyclone season, so this time of the year is the
normal time for cyclones so we are monitoring very carefully. But at this
moment there is no new cyclone," Horsey said.

“However, there is some heavy rain and maybe thunderstorms – normal
situation for the monsoon period,” he said.

“There will be heavy rains, so this may be a problem for the people and a
problem for the roads and for aid efforts, but there is no cyclone.”

____________________________________

____________________________________
OPINION / OTHER

May 14, Irrawaddy
Burma’s displaced people a long-term problem – Dan Nicholson

Somewhere from 1 to 2 million people are homeless in Burma today. The
devastating impact of Cyclone Nargis was exacerbated by poor planning and
inadequate warning by the Burmese military government.

This is a housing crisis on the scale of the tsunami of December 26 2004,
which displaced more than 1.5 million in several countries across Asia.

This situation must immediately be rectified to avoid a greater
humanitarian catastrophe: the international community must press the junta
to immediately remove restrictions on visa applications for relief
workers, and to allow freedom of movement for expatriate relief workers,
and free distribution of food supplies.

For the homeless and displaced, however, the immediate effects of the
cyclone are being made more acute by the decision of the Burmese junta to
delay and in some cases to seize aid being flown in and to refuse visas to
staff of international relief agencies.

Beyond the immediate crisis of shelter and clean water, however, this
disaster poses longer-term challenges for the international community.
There are lessons for us from the relief effort of the Asian tsunami.

In Aceh, the tsunami led to a peace process which ended a decades-long
civil conflict. In Sri Lanka, it contributed to the apparently permanent
breakdown of the peace process, and the resumption of full-scale war
between the government and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (or Tamil
Tigers).

While it is too early to know the political ramifications of this disaster
for Burma, the international community should ensure first that they do no
harm through their relief efforts; that the aftermath of this disaster
does not further entrench the repressive practices of the current regime.

First, if and when international aid agencies are allowed on the ground,
they should try to link as much as possible with Burmese civil society.
Contact between international agencies and Burmese society has the
potential to open up one of the region’s most closed countries—which would
be welcome. Contact between the international community and many parts of
the Burmese government could also prove a positive development.

Second, international humanitarian assistance must be provided in a way
which respects and protects the fundamental rights to housing of those
displaced. Under international law, displaced people have the right to
return to their original houses and land, unless return is factually
impossible. If going home is genuinely impossible, then people have the
right to adequate alternative housing—close to their livelihoods, and
education and health facilities, with access to clean water and
sanitation. The international community must influence the reconstruction
policy in Burma to reflect these rights wherever possible.

In Sri Lanka, while there was much to be pleased with in the response of
the government and international community, some people displaced by the
tsunami are still languishing in camps, some four years after the wave
hit. Some relocation sites were poorly constructed, or in locations where
communities could not make a living. Inevitably, people leave these sites
and find themselves displaced once again.

There is every reason for grave concern about ongoing displacement in
Burma, since the State Peace and Development Council (or SPDC)—Burma’s
military junta—has a terrible record in this regard. Before Cyclone Nargis
hit, there were already an estimated one million people displaced Burmese,
mostly from Burma’s many ethnic minorities.

This displacement was caused by the Burmese military’s counterinsurgency
tactics in the civil conflicts it is fighting and by their policy of
military self-sufficiency, where poor villagers are forced to provide
food, labor and land to the military. Development projects, such as dams,
mines and oil pipelines have also caused mass displacement and other
violations of human rights. Some communities have been displaced more than
100 times in the past 50 years.

These displaced people, who are located both inside the country and in
camps around its borders, are supported by a remarkable group of
organizations, like the Thai Burma Border Consortium. The needs of these
people—and their right to one day return home— should not be forgotten
today.

These past few days show the importance of the role of the international
community in responding to the crisis in Burma, and the difficulties they
will face in dealing with the Burmese government. There will still be much
to be done once tents, food and clean water are on the ground.

These past few days also remind us in the starkest possible way that the
basic rights of the Burmese people, including their rights to housing, can
only be protected through sustained political change in that country.

Dan Nicholson is an Australian lawyer who coordinates the Asia and Pacific
Programme of the Centre on Housing Rights and Evictions (COHRE), a
Geneva-based international human rights organization. COHRE’s 2007 report
on Forced Displacement in Burma is available at www.cohre.org/burma

____________________________________

May 14, Democratic Voice of Burma
Junta divides and rules – Bo Kyi

We cannot allow politics to obstruct the delivery of assistance that can
prevent this grave humanitarian situation from getting worse," said US
presidential candidate Hillary Clinton yesterday.

However, like it or not, politics will shape the outcome of this
humanitarian crisis. The regime’s refusal to allow international aid
workers with the necessary expertise into Burma to co-ordinate the
humanitarian relief effort - and its control over the distribution of aid
- is of course politically motivated.

Than Shwe's regime has long-operated a policy of divide-and-rule amongst
its own people, in order to maintain its stranglehold on power. Despite
the humanitarian crisis gripping the country, this policy is becoming ever
more entrenched. While the junta grants some privileges to those who
support them, they oppress those they cannot control.

According to several reliable sources from Rangoon, general Thein Sein,
the junta's prime minister, yesterday spoke to a group of businessmen who
were assigned to carry out relief operations in the Irrawaddy delta area,
on behalf of the junta. They were allowed into the worst-hit areas as long
as they didn’t bring cameras.

However, monks – who played such an important role in the popular
uprisings last year - and ordinary citizens have been threatened and
intimidated by the military and their hired thugs for their efforts to
help.

Reports from the ground indicate that hospitals in the affected areas are
full of injured cyclone survivors. Doctors and nurses on duty are greatly
outnumbered by patients and are already at breaking point. Despite this,
the authorities are refusing help from Burmese volunteer doctors.

Reports have emerged of some doctors - who entered refugee camps to look
after emergency cases - being interrogated over and over again by local
authorities and branches of the Union Solidarity and Development
Association until they were forced to leave. In defiance of the regime
some of those doctors have started to build booths along the roadsides and
are giving free medical assistance to those who need it.

Millions of water purification tablets and other medicines have recently
been distributed to hospitals by international organizations and donors.
But doctors cannot distribute the medicines to the general population,
because they are so busy treating survivors. Stockpiles of medicines have
been seen just sitting in hospitals and dispensaries, when they should be
distributed urgently.

Like the other donated goods already siphoned off for sale at the markets
– UN raincoats, WFP towels - the medicines are likely to appear for sale
rather than go to the people who desperately need them.

The situation on the ground leaves aid workers and NGOs in a difficult
position. As foreign and local journalists are largely banned from
entering the devastated areas and reporting on the crisis, it is
understandable that some aid workers say they are uncomfortable speaking
in public to reporters for fear that associating with media could
jeopardize their relief efforts.

The regime - in particular Than Shwe - has long peddled its version of the
‘truth’ to both its own people and the international community, and holds
a deep mistrust of anyone who dares to tell the truth, regardless of
whether they are Burmese, Asian or Western. In order to satisfy general
Than Shwe, elaborate aid-giving ceremonies are being staged, showing the
generals handing out aid to people in daily news bulletins. It is pure
propaganda to hide the truth that ordinary Burmese people are facing death
and destruction on a massive scale.

The regime doesn’t want its people to be united. It doesn’t want countries
to be united. And now the military regime is using its divide-and-rule
policy among key international players like the Association of Southeast
Asian Nations, China, India, the US and the European Union.

The policy is designed to protect the regime’s power and privileges, and
in the longer term, to win international legitimacy and support for its
state constitution. We should be careful of such tactics.

Whilst the principle of national sovereignty should be respected, that
should not be at the cost of human life. If a debate on national
sovereignty continues to divide the international community’s response,
key international players risk falling foul of the junta’s divide-and-rule
tactics.

Surin Pitsuwan, secretary-general of ASEAN, recently stated that the
Burmese junta asked ASEAN to lead aid efforts because of its “lingering
suspicions” of Westerners. Given the regime’s widespread mistrust of
anyone outside of its military forces and state-sponsored groups like USDA
and the Swan Arr Shin, ASEAN should beware any attempt by the regime to
hide behind the “legitimacy” of its ASEAN membership in order to
manipulate the situation to its advantage.

Even though the international community and humanitarian experts have
vocally expressed their worries about the crisis unfolding in the country,
the military regime doesn't seem to share their concern.

After a meeting with navy Commander-in-Chief Soe Thein, Timothy Keating
head of the US Pacific Command reported, "[He] characterized activity
there as returning back to normal -- his words," Keating said. "[He said]
people are coming back to their villages, they're planting their crops for
the summer season, the monsoon will come and wash all the saltwater out of
the ponds. His manner, his demeanor, his attitude indicated something less
than very serious concern."

Than Shwe is playing a dangerous political game by obstructing the
delivery of vital aid which would prevent this grave humanitarian
situation from worsening. In order to avoid the further loss of human
life, the international community must stand united and enter Burma now to
deliver the aid which is so desperately needed.

____________________________________

May 14, New York Times
Shame on the Junta

After Cyclone Nargis devastated Myanmar, killing tens of thousands of
people, the world rushed to offer help. Most governments would be
grateful. Not this one. A week and a half later, the country’s ruling
generals are still blocking large-scale foreign aid. That negligence could
lead to the death of tens of thousands more.

It took far too long and far too many pleadings before the junta agreed to
let any international relief planes land. The generals — who have brutally
shut the country off from the rest of the world for more than 40 years —
also finally allowed in a team of disaster experts to assess the damage.
But the junta has approved only 34 of 100 visas sought by international
relief workers and has insisted that only its own five army helicopters
transport supplies to isolated delta regions.

The result? Relief supplies are reaching at best only one-third of those
in desperate need of food, water and medical attention. American ships —
with helicopters and hospital facilities — are nearby ready to help, but
barred by the junta from doing so.

There is a growing debate about whether this obstruction amounts to a
crime against humanity, one that requires the United Nations to forcibly
deliver relief supplies under its “responsibility to protect” principle.
The European Union’s foreign policy chief, Javier Solana, has suggested
the United Nations use “all means” to help the victims. How that would
happen is unclear.

The Security Council should condemn the junta’s callous disregard of its
own people and step up the pressure on the generals to open the country
immediately to relief efforts. If the junta still resists, the United
States and other countries must begin airdrops of supplies.

China — which sells arms to and has major energy investments and other
deals in Myanmar — may be the only one the generals will listen to.
Beijing must stop blocking Security Council action and use all its
influence to press the junta to open up the country to relief efforts.

China has now suffered its own horror, the earthquake in Sichuan Province
that also has killed untold thousands. It appears to be handling it
responsibly — quickly mobilizing the military for rescue work, allowing
full media coverage and welcoming offers of assistance. It should press
Myanmar’s generals to do the same, before there are no more victims left
to save.

___________________________

May 14, Asia Times
The problem with dictators and disasters – Sreeram Chaulia

As the full extent of the devastation wrought by Cyclone Nargis dawns, it
is clear that Myanmar's military junta has earned one more black mark in
its egregious record of rule. United Nations officials reveal that the
response of the country's long-reigning tyrants to offers of humanitarian
aid has been typically suspicious and opaque, even though the scale of the
disaster is massive (approximately 100,000 casualties and more than 1
million displaced persons).

The tardy relief measures mounted by the Myanmar army, coupled with the
blockading of United Nations relief efforts through

various barriers, reflect the criminality of the regime. By inordinately
delaying aid flights and visas for UN relief workers, and confiscating
international emergency supplies, the junta has demonstrated not only
total insensitivity towards the suffering of its own people but also its
paranoid insularity.

Having ruled with an iron fist for more than four decades by sealing off
the country from outside influences, the generals in their secluded new
capital at Naypyidaw, led by Senior General Than Shwe, clearly do not see
any reason for relaxing the imprisonment of their population in the wake
of Cyclone Nargis' fury. A number of calculations underlie the junta's
obstructionist attitude to foreign assistance for cyclone victims.

First, it is motivated by fear of exposure of the socio-economic and
political conditions that prevail in the Irrawaddy Delta, the hardest
cyclone-hit region. If the UN is able to access the Delta, there is a
danger of civilians lodging a deluge of complaints not only about their
immediate travails from the cyclone, but also concerning the long-term
oppression they have faced under military dictatorship.

While the scale of repression in Myanmar is known generically, the gory
details are locked behind layers of state intelligence and military
penetration of society. Opening the country to foreign-led cyclone relief
teams threatens, through their inevitable communications with global
media, to spill the beans on the military's brutal grassroots security
policies.

Second, disaster relief organized by foreigners would be unpalatable to
the junta's obsession for command and control through tight supervision
and surveillance of the people. Admission of outsiders for cyclone relief
would be seen by the hardliners in Naypyidaw as a potential crack in the
door that could widen and loosen their grip on power.

By its very nature, the humanitarian enterprise lingers after a disaster
and devises "post-emergency" projects that would potentially entail a near
permanent presence in the country. That has been witnessed with the 2004
tsunami disaster and the long stay by foreign aid organizations in
disaster-hit areas of Indonesia and Thailand. The junta is afraid that the
UN, not to mention the United States, might use the cyclone as a Trojan
Horse to eventually promote real grassroots democracy in Myanmar.

Interestingly, Naypyidaw did not procrastinate in accepting emergency aid
from India, China, Thailand and Indonesia immediately after the cyclone.
These Asian countries are perceived as innocuous compared to the UN
because of their close strategic relations with the junta. Their aid is
being handed directly over to the Myanmar authorities without tracking the
endpoint distribution or monitoring the use of the supplies.

The International Herald Tribune reported that part of the UN relief
tranche that did manage to enter Myanmar had been confiscated by the junta
to organize its perverse referendum on a new constitution, which was held
in most areas of the country on Saturday and was apparently a bigger
government priority than rescuing cyclone victims.

Diversion of emergency aid to military purposes is a worldwide problem
compounded by bilateral government-to-government assistance involving
undemocratic recipient regimes like Myanmar.

A third reason why the junta has stymied international aid is apprehension
that it might awaken domestic civil society. Local community-based
organizations, citizens' self-help groups and non-governmental
organizations (NGOs) that are independent of state direction are virtually
non-existent in Myanmar. Strict regulation of societal activism is
necessary for the junta to deflect criticism and popular calls for
accountability.

Fear of 'NGO-ization'
The entry of foreign aid organizations on a large scale usually goes
hand-in-hand with the spawning of local "implementing partners" and
"NGO-ization" of the social sphere. While partner NGOs of international
humanitarian organizations rarely address sensitive subjects like
protection of civilians from atrocities and abuse, they could have
unintended consequences of allowing spaces within which more radical
citizen activism could emerge. Hence, the determination of the junta to
contain domestic dissent is a likely factor behind obstructing UN and
Western-led humanitarian aid.

To be sure, Myanmar's junta is not unique in mishandling disaster relief.
North Korea's totalitarian regime has long shown no mercy for its starving
population. Since the late 1990s, more than 3 million North Koreans are
believed to have died from the man-made disasters of food shortages. The
hermit regime has hence become dependent on foreign food assistance.
However, the UN is reeling under donor fatigue due to legitimate concerns
that the aid is being siphoned off by the Kim Jong-il regime to maintain
and even strengthen the hold of his totalitarian government and the army
on the hapless population.

In Africa, the despotic governments of Zimbabwe and Sudan have shown
similar symptoms of either refusing foreign aid or misusing it for
partisan purposes. The humanitarian crisis in Zimbabwe under the
authoritarian President Robert Mugabe adversely affects more than half of
the country's 11.6 million people who wilt under severe drought, poverty,
an HIV/AIDS pandemic, economic decline and government-sponsored excesses.
Yet Mugabe angrily denies that his country needs food aid and exacerbates
the crisis by clamping down on expression of social concerns.

The military regime of Omar al-Bashir in Sudan has presided over a series
of life-threatening humanitarian crises by orchestrating army and militia
violence on civilians in the country's southern and western regions. UN
initiatives to provide material relief and protection to Sudan's people
have been frustrated at every step by the Bashir dictatorship, with the
backing of tyrannical regimes in Egypt and Algeria. The Myanmar junta's
botching of the Cyclone Nargis relief effort is thus part of a larger
trend of authoritarian regimes mismanaging disaster response.

Nobel Prize-winning economist Amartya Sen has argued that democracies are
better positioned than non-democracies to deal with famines, droughts and
other disasters. Elected governments act in a more responsible fashion
when their populations are buffeted by natural or man-made disasters since
power for politicians depends on popular mandates at the polls, not
through the barrel of a gun. Moreover, democracies have a relatively freer
media that scrutinizes the post-disaster response of the authorities for
the public interest. The relative success of India in handling disasters
like tsunamis, floods and earthquakes vis-a-vis Myanmar, North Korea or
Pakistan would seem to vindicate Sen's thesis.

The gross inaction and belated response of the US government to Hurricane
Katrina, which battered the southern state of Louisiana in 2005, however
raises questions about the quality of democracy and its relation to
effective and humane disaster response. According to a Gallup poll
conducted shortly after the hurricane lashed New Orleans, six out of every
10 black residents said that "if most of Katrina's victims were white,
relief would have arrived sooner".

The callous and biased approach of the US government to a huge natural
calamity was contextually no less criminal than what the Myanmar junta has
done in the wake of Cyclone Nargis. It turns out that both Naypyidaw and
Washington have their respective fiddling Neros. The counter-example of
Katrina shows the limitations of the intellectual case for democracy as a
panacea for improved disaster response.

A state will have to be democratic not so much in form but in substance
(ie respectful of minorities and weaker sections of society) to
effectively mitigate disasters or relieve citizens after they inevitably
occur. The junta's lack of response to Cyclone Nargis sends another
unmistakable signal that Myanmar sorely needs an end to its dark night of
military dictatorship. Yet establishing real democracy - not the sham
constitutional referendum process held by the junta over the weekend - is
the only way for Myanmar's pummeled people to train and prepare themselves
for future calamities.

Sreeram Chaulia is a researcher of international affairs at the Maxwell
School of Citizenship at Syracuse University, New York.