BurmaNet News, May 18-19, 2008

[Editor]

May 18-19, 2008 Issue #3470

QUOTE OF THE DAY
It is being made into a man-made catastrophe by the negligence, the
neglect and the inhuman treatment of the Burmese people by a regime that
is failing to act and to allow the international community to do what it
wants to do.
—British Prime Minister Gordon Brown

INSIDE BURMA
AP: Save the Children warns of starvation in Burma
AP: Than Shwe makes first visit to relief camp
WSJ: Myanmar slowly opens door for international donations
DVB: Farmers in need of urgent assistance after cyclone

ASEAN
CNN: Myanmar agrees to accept ASEAN cyclone aid

INTERNATIONAL
AP: UN Chief to visit Burma
Reuters: France sees Security Council "cowardice" on Myanmar
AFP: Internet can force change in Myanmar: Brown

OPINION / OTHER
Wall Street Journal Asia: Orwell Lives in Burma Today
The Nation: Aftermath of cyclone Nargis: can Asean pull it off?
Cutting Edge: The time to invade Burma is now—and time is running out
IHT: Send in the latrines

STATEMENT
Action Network For Migrants (Thailand): Demands immediate response by
ASEAN for victims of Cyclone Nargis in Burma

INTERVIEWS
Irrawaddy: A shattered rice bowl



____________________________________
INSIDE BURMA

May 19, Associated Press
Save the Children warns of starvation in Burma - Raphael G. Satter

Thousands of children in Burma could die of starvation within two or three
weeks, a British charity said on Sunday.

Save the Children UK said its research showed that an estimated 30,000
children under five years of age in the devastated Irrawaddy Delta were
already acutely malnourished even before Cyclone Nargis tore through the
region—and that several thousand among them are now at risk of death.

Children survivors of Cyclone Nargis cover their heads from the rain with
empty aluminum plates, as they wait for a plate of rice, a spoonful of
curry and a potato, in front of a private donation center, in Laputta
town, Irrawaddy Delta. (Photo: AP)
"With hundreds of thousands of people still not receiving aid, many of
these children will not survive much longer," the charity said in a
statement. "Children may already be dying as a result of a lack of food."

Humanitarian aid agency Action Against Hunger described the situation in
the Bogalay region of the delta where it was working as "extremely
alarming," saying the priority of every survivor they surveyed there was
to find enough food to eat.

"All day long, people are looking for food and for a way of cooking the
food they find," the group said in a statement. "For over 15 days, the
survivors have mainly been feeding themselves with wild fruits, vegetables
and moldy rice, which they are trying to dry."

The group said the price of rice had quadrupled since the cyclone struck
the country and that some people were already starving.

More than two weeks after the cyclone devastated Burma, aid agencies have
hit out at government restrictions preventing them from reaching the
worse-hit areas.

Heavy rains since the storm have also hindered relief efforts, and relief
agencies say inhabitants are suffering from a shortage of safe water and
proper sanitation. The United Nations and other agencies say that lack of
proper aid could dramatically worsen the crisis.

Save the Children said Burma’s long-term food security had been
jeopardized by the cyclone because many farmers were prevented from sowing
seeds for the harvest, while Action Against Hunger said most fishermen had
lost all their fishing equipment.

Britain's Department for International Development said it had reports of
"extensive damage" to agriculture in the area, warning that the loss of
the country's November harvest was possible as the planting season is due
to end within five to seven weeks.
Burma’s state-run television has said the cyclone death toll is around
78,000 with about 56,000 missing. Aid groups say those estimates are too
low, and Britain has cited unofficial estimates that some 217,000 people
are dead or missing.

____________________________________

May 19, Associated Press
Than Shwe makes first visit to relief camp

The head of Burma’ ruling junta, Snr-Gen Than Shwe, on Sunday made his
first visit to a relief camp since Cyclone Nargis, patting babies’ heads
and shaking the hands of survivors, amid growing international criticism
over his government's handling of the crisis.

State television featured footage of Than Shwe inspecting supplies and
comforting victims in relatively clean and neat rows of blue tents. Some
survivors clasped their hands and bowed as he and a column of military
leaders walked past.

According to the report, Than Shwe traveled from the capital, Naypyidaw,
in central Burma, to relief camps in the Hlaing Thar Yar and Dagon suburbs
of Rangoon. He has still not visited the devastated Irrawaddy delta
region.

The state-run New Light of Myanmar newspaper said in an editorial on
Sunday that the government, "mobilizing the cooperation of the people,
social organizations and departments," has rushed to carry out relief and
rehabilitation tasks.

"Necessary measures are being taken constantly to attend to the basic
needs of the people in the relief camps, while specialists are making
field trips to the storm-struck areas to provide health care," it said.

The publication accused foreign news agencies of broadcasting false
information that has led international organizations to assume that the
government is rejecting aid for storm victims.

State-run radio said the government has so far spent about US $2 million
for relief work and has received millions of dollars worth of relief
supplies from local and international donors.

Still, aid agencies say some 2.5 million survivors are in desperate need
of help—food, shelter from intermittent monsoon rains, medicines, clean
drinking water and sanitation. A UN report said Saturday that emergency
relief from the international community had reached only 500,000 people.

In the devastated Irrawaddy delta to the southwest of Rangoon, the
situation remained grim.

At least 78,000 people were killed in the May 2-3 storm and another 56,000
are missing.

____________________________________

May 19, Wall Street Journal
Myanmar slowly opens door for international donations

Myanmar is slowly opening the door to more international aid for the
survivors of Cyclone Nargis, agreeing Monday to hold a donors conference
in Yangon on May 25, while estimating total damage from the catastrophe at
$10 billion.

But Myanmar's reclusive ruling military junta appears to remain intent on
keeping tight control of how aid enters the country. At an emergency
conference in Singapore, Myanmar officials insisted that its neighbors and
partners in the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations, or
Asean, take the lead in channeling relief assistance to up to 2.5 million
survivors of the storm.

Some Asean diplomats familiar with the situation say Myanmar's demand is
designed to prevent the country's citizens from associating increased
inflows of aid with help from the U.S. and other Western countries
critical of Myanmar's ruling junta.

After the one-day Singapore meeting, Myanmar agreed to let an Asean-led
task force work with the United Nations and other international agencies
to coordinate the disbursement of aid to survivors left homeless by the
cyclone. Myanmar authorities estimate 134,000 people are dead or missing
as result of the cyclone and the storm surge which accompanied it.

Asean officials argued that the regional grouping's involvement will help
reduce the Myanmar regime's suspicions that western governments are
offering aid with one hand, while trying to undermine the authority of its
military rulers with the other.

"International assistance to Myanmar, given through Asean, should not be
politicized. On that basis, Myanmar will accept international assistance,"
Singapore's Foreign Minister George Yeo said after the meeting. He added
that Myanmar's decision to allow in more aid, no matter what the
restrictions, was "better late than never".

The proposed donor conference in Yangon could be a turning point in the
international relief effort for Myanmar. But it is still unclear who will
be attending. Singapore's Mr. Yeo said he hoped it would be held at a
ministerial level and would include representatives from governments in
addition to the Asean states and U.N. agencies.

It also isn't clear how Myanmar came up with its damage estimate of $10
billion, which is far in excess of the country's estimated international
reserves of $1.7 billion. International agencies and diplomats complain
they haven't been given full access to the cyclone-affected area to
provide an independent assessment of the financial toll wrought by the
storm, but U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization officials have
previously said they were informed by the Myanmar authorities that it
would cost $243 million to buy seeds and tractors and restore agricultural
infrastructure destroyed by the cyclone.

Asean countries have long followed a policy of not interfering in each
other's so-called internal affairs, leaving the group vulnerable to
pro-democracy activists' criticisms that it hasn't done enough to pressure
or criticize Myanmar's military junta, which has ruled the country since
1962.

Last year, for instance, Asean nations expressed their "revulsion" at the
way Myanmar's armed forces killed at least 31 people, while putting down
pro-democracy protests, but the group didn't pursue any stronger follow-up
action.

Asean's reluctance to take concrete steps to ostracize Myanmar or impose
sanctions as the U.S. and European Union have done means Myanmar finds it
easier to accept aid from its Southeast Asian neighbors, diplomats say
privately. "Asean can act like a buffer between Myanmar and the west in
this case," said one Asean official who asked not to be identified because
he wasn't authorized to talk to the media.

Asean comprises Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the
Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.

So far, Myanmar has also allowed medical teams from Asean countries to
assistant in the relief effort. Some, including one from Thailand, are
already there, along with teams from China and India.

Aid coming from outside Asean, Singapore's Mr. Yeo said, would be
considered on a "case by case basis," much as it is now. "We have to look
at specific needs -- there will not be uncontrolled access," Mr. Yeo said.

That stance will likely frustrate the U.S. and other governments, who have
repeatedly said they are not trying to tie aid to political reform in
Myanmar, also known as Burma.

The U.N. has also criticized Myanmar for its reluctance to open up to a
much larger international relief effort. This week, U.N. Secretary-General
Ban Ki-moon is scheduled to travel to Myanmar to inspect devastated
Irrawaddy delta region after expressing his frustration with the country's
slowness to accept more international aid.

Although aid flights are becoming more frequent -- the U.S., for example
has flown several flights of emergency aid into Yangon -- many obstacles
still remain. U.S. Navy vessels packed with aid are still anchored off
Myanmar's shore awaiting permission to pitch in to the relief efforts. A
French ship is also waiting for clearance to unload 1,000 metric tons of
food and emergency supplies to cyclone victims.

The country has also been refusing to grant visas to many relief experts
who specialize in quickly setting up aid distribution networks.

Writing in the French newspaper Le Monde Monday, France's Foreign Minister
Bernard Kouchner said the U.N.'s Security Council should forcibly deliver
aid to the victims of the cyclone, as it did previously in Kurdistan,
Bosnia and Rwanda.

Myanmar's Foreign Minister, Nyan Win, however, told reporters in Singapore
that the country hadn't been dragging its heels on permitting aid into the
country. "We always welcomed international aid. We don't delay," he
asserted.

At a news conference in Bangkok on Monday, U.N. and Red Cross officials
acknowledged that more aid was getting through and the government was
showing more signs of opening up. But they said it's still not enough to
deal with the full scale of the disaster.

The Red Cross said that more than two dozen of its flights have arrived in
Yangon so far, and the World Food Program said it has dispatched enough
food to feed more than 250,000 people. "There is a momentum and rhythm to
the supplies going into the country now," said John Sparrow, a spokesman
for the International Federation of the Red Cross and Red Crescent
Societies.

"We are seeing some progress" in terms of more stuff getting through,
added Amanda Pitt, a spokesperson for the United Nations Office for the
Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs. "There seem to be some signs of
increasing cooperation."

Even so, she and others stressed that the amount of aid getting in is
still far too low. Marcus Prior, a spokesman for WFP, said only about 30%
of the 375 tons of food needed daily is arriving. The flow of aid is still
"slow and insufficient," he said.

In the meantime, aid agencies report that displaced families continue to
move out of the affected areas, driven by food shortages, even as Myanmar
government officials try to force victims out of temporary shelters and
back to their villages. U.N. officials said that despite the agency having
72 foreign staff in Yangon, none had been authorized to work in affected
delta areas.

Without full access to the region, or complete cooperation from the
government, the agencies are becoming more creative in solving the many
logistical problems that have plagued the relief effort so far.

Among those problems is the fact that Yangon's airport doesn't have enough
equipment or manpower to unload the high volume of large jet transport
planes needed to re-supply the aid effort. The airport also doesn't have
the capacity to refuel relief planes heading back to far-away places like
Dubai.

As a result, U.N. officials have started handling much of the shipping and
logistics effort at Don Muang airport in Bangkok. When large planes with
relief cargo arrive, the supplies are offloaded and transferred to smaller
planes that can be handled more easily in Myanmar. The big planes refuel
in Bangkok and then return to their points of origin.

Write to James Hookway at james.hookway at awsj.com18 and Patrick Barta at
patrick.barta at wsj.com19

____________________________________

May 19, Democratic Voice of Burma
Farmers in need of urgent assistance after cyclone

The destruction of around 650,000 acres of farmland in Rangoon and
Irrawaddy divisions by Cyclone Nargis has left farmers in need of urgent
assistance, according to the Food and Agriculture Organisation.

Some 20 percent of the rice fields were damaged in the five
cyclone-devastated regions.

Financial assistance, agricultural tools and other resources are urgently
needed to enable farmers to start working on the land as soon as possible,
as the planting season has already started.

If the assistance is not forthcoming, the FAO said they are bound to face
rice shortages.

In the highest yielding rice producing region, Irrawaddy division, farmers
are facing severe difficulties because many acres of farmland were
destroyed and over 200,000 draft animals were killed by the cyclone.

U Ohn Kyaing of Moulmeingyun, who recently visited the affected areas,
said floods had covered half of the farmland in Bogalay and Moulmeingyun
townships, two key agricultural areas.

“All of the stockpiled seed grains, rice for consumption, and rice stored
and ready for sale were destroyed. I have witnessed it,” Ohn Kyaing said.

“More than half of the arable land was destroyed by the cyclone.”

Ohn Kyaing said it would be difficult for farmers to get back to normal.

“Moulmeingyun, Bogale, Pyapon, Dadaye, and Kyaiklat, which were devastated
by the cyclone, were the main regions producing most of the marine and
agricultural products for Burma,” Ohn Kyaing said.

“Farmers in these regions no longer have their farming implements, seed
grains, or draft animals and many of them have witnessed the tragic loss
of their family members,” he said.

People’s parliament representative U Min Swe, who returned from Pyapon
Township yesterday, said farming and fisheries had been badly affected by
the cyclone.

“The farmers have lost all their draft animals. Rice stored in the silos
was blown away into the water when the cyclone tore the roofs open. The
grains are no longer usable,” he said.

“People working in the fisheries industry have lost all their
infrastructure. [In] Myitdan, a place which is about one mile away from
Pyapon, some of their boats sank and some are still lost.”

Another people’s parliament representative, U Kyi Win, said hundreds of
thousands of acres of farmland in the high rice yielding Labutta region
had been destroyed by the surging sea water.

“Labutta has more than 366,000 acres of farmland to grow monsoon rice, and
about 20,000 acres are used for growing summer rice,” Kyi Win said.

“The arable land near the sea is known as forest farms and they are very
fertile, producing about 50 to 60 baskets of paddy per acre,” he said.

“All the land there is now under sea water and the farms have all been
destroyed.”

Kyi Win said the farming communities had been left with nothing.

“There aren’t farmers left either – all of them were killed in the
cyclone. How are they going to divvy up the land?” Kyi Win asked.

“There are no villages left, no rice stored for consumption, no seed
grains, and no draft animals,” he said.

“Labutta, Bogale, Pyapon, and Moulmeingyun have always been the state’s
top designated rice-producing areas since the time of the Burma Socialist
Programme Party. These areas have now been destroyed.”

Kyi Win compared the situation to the 1966 rice shortages in Sittwe,
Arakan state, due to the flooding of rice farms in Irrawaddy division.

“The floods then were not as bad as now and no one was killed, only the
farmland was inundated,” Kyi Win said.

“The flooding then only affected about six places in Irrawaddy Division,
including Bogalay, Moulmeingyun, and Pyapon,” he said.

“Even then, the country was hit by a rice crisis in 1966. I cannot even
imagine the extent of rice shortage that is about to happen now.”

Kyi Win said it was important that the government accept outside help to
reclaim and cultivate rice on the flooded lands in order to avert a
crisis.

“Relief and rehabilitation must be carried out extensively with close
cooperation between the national forces and government and the
international community,” he said.

“A national crisis cannot be handled alone. We can no longer afford to be
divided.”

Reporting by Khin H


____________________________________
ASEAN

May 19, CNN
Myanmar agrees to accept ASEAN cyclone aid

Myanmar has agreed to let its South Asian neighbors send medical personnel
and an assessment team to the cyclone-ravaged country, more than two weeks
after a storm that killed tens of thousands of people.

Monday's decision came after an emergency meeting in Singapore of the 10
countries that make up ASEAN -- the Association of Southeast Asian Nations
-- Indonesian Foreign Minister Hassan Wirayuda said.

The military junta that rules Myanmar -- formerly known as Burma -- has
been strongly criticized by the United Nations and United States, among
others, for its reluctance to let foreign aid workers into the country.

People in the worst-affected areas say they have received no help at all
from their government, a CNN correspondent in the country has discovered.
iReport.com: Are you there? Send photos, videos

"I have been trying to contact our government representative for two
weeks," the village chief in Don Le said. "But so far I have received no
reply." A quarter of the village's population was killed by the cyclone.

A villager named Ko U showed CNN where his house used to stand -- and the
place where he found the body of his three-year-old daughter. VideoSee
CNN's behind-the-scenes report on the cyclone devastation. »

"I dug her out of the mud and buried her on other side of the river," he
said.

Corpses still line the shores along some parts the Irrawaddy Delta, the
part of the country hardest-hit by the cyclone.

Many in the village clearly remain traumatized by what they have
witnessed, and they said if they did not get more help soon, their future
would be a fight for survival.

Many of those who survived the cyclone now have to flee their homes.

"We simply couldn't survive in our village any longer. We would starve if
we stayed there," a woman packing her belongings into a boat told CNN. She
did not give her name. Journalists who gave her some of their food were
told it was the first supplies she had received in more than two weeks.

CNN is not identifying its reporter, who is traveling without permission
from the country's ruling military leaders.

The ASEAN assessment team will go to Myanmar on Wednesday to gauge the
impact of the disaster and the scope of aid needed, Wirayuda said.

The same day, United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon is expected to
arrive in an attempt to "accelerate relief efforts."

In addition, each ASEAN country outside of Myanmar committed to send 30
medical personnel -- for a total of 270 -- to help with the medical needs
of the displaced population.

The U.N. estimates that Cyclone Nargis has killed more than 100,000 people
and affected some 2.5 million. The official death toll provided by
Myanmar's government is much lower.

Aid agencies have struggled to gain access to the country from the
secretive military junta that rules Myanmar, though some relief flights
landed. The regime has indicated that it would like supplies but not
international aid workers.

ASEAN is comprised of Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia,
Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.

Meanwhile, the ruling junta has announced a three-day mourning period for
victims of the cyclone beginning Tuesday morning, The Associated Press
reported Monday.

State television announced that the national flag would be flown at
half-mast, AP said.

Ban's visit will follow the short tour by U.N. humanitarian chief John
Holmes.

Video broadcast on state television on Sunday showed Holmes, flanked by
troops, touring a hospital and speaking with doctors and cyclone
survivors.

He met with the country's rulers to try to convince them that a disaster
of such magnitude cannot be handled by one nation alone, spokeswoman
spokeswoman Amanda Pitt said.

The country's reclusive junta leader Than Shwe was also shown visiting a
refugee camp outside Yangon, two weeks after Cyclone Nargis devastated
Myanmar.

Surrounded by fellow junta members dressed in olive-green military suits,
Shwe walked through streets talking with the people who lined up outside
their neatly constructed tents.

The 75-year-old military ruler touched the cheeks of young survivors held
by their mothers.

The junta leaders -- who traveled about 320 km (200 miles) south to Yangon
from the new capital Naypyidaw -- looked on as aid workers at the camp
opened plastic cases filled with relief supplies. VideoWatch Myanmar
leader's visit »

Forecasts show that in the coming days, the Irrawaddy Delta could receive
another 12 cm (4.7 inches) of rain, adding to the woes of the
cyclone-affected masses.

Meanwhile, the United States will be sending relief funding and supplies
directly to non-governmental organizations, said Ky Luu, director of
overseas foreign assistance for USAID.

"This will give us assurance that the supplies will reach the victims,"
she told CNN on Sunday.

Myanmar's junta has been distributing U.S. aid to cyclone victims, but
there were concerns over whether the victims were receiving it.

The United States wanted to send a disaster assessment team to Myanmar,
but the junta did not accept the offer, Luu said.


____________________________________
INTERNATIONAL

May 19, Associated Press
UN Chief to Visit Burma

UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon will fly to Burma this week and visit the
areas hardest hit by Cyclone Nargis, the United Nations said on Sunday.

UN spokeswoman Michèle Montas said Burma’s military government has given
permission for the UN chief to travel to the Irrawaddy Delta, a region
along the coast directly in the cyclone's path, where UN officials fear
tens of thousands of cyclone survivors are not getting adequate aid.

"He will go to the areas most affected by the cyclone," she said.

The secretary-general will leave Burma on May 23 and stop in Bangkok on
his way back to New York, she said.

Meanwhile military regime allowed the UN humanitarian chief into the
devastated Irrawaddy delta for a brief tour on Monday, a UN official said,
as the government's dealings with the international community appeared to
thaw.

John Holmes, the UN undersecretary-general for humanitarian affairs, flew
by helicopter into an area where hundreds of thousands of cyclone victims
suffer from hunger, disease and lack of shelter.

The UN official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not
authorized to speak with the media, said that after a few hours in the
delta, Holmes would meet with international aid agencies in Burma's
largest city, Rangoon.

In another sign the junta may chart a new course in its relationship with
the United Nations, the government also gave permission for UN
Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon to travel to the delta after his scheduled
arrival in the country Wednesday, UN spokeswoman Michele Montas said in
New York.

Earlier, junta leader Snr-Gen Than Shwe had refused to take telephone
calls from Ban and had not responded to two letters from him. Holmes, who
arrived in Rangoon on Sunday, was to deliver a third letter about how the
UN can assist the government's immediate and long-term relief effort.

A team of 50 Chinese medics arrived in Rangoon on Sunday night, following
in the footsteps of medical personnel from India and Thailand, the
official Chinese news agency Xinhua reported. On Monday some 30 Thai
doctors and nurses began working in the delta — exceptions to the regime's
ban on foreign aid workers in the region.

The US-based disaster relief agency AmeriCares said the regime had cleared
its initial 15-ton shipment of medicine and medical equipment into Burma.

A senior British official hinted on Sunday that a breakthrough may also be
near that would allow foreign military ships to join the relief effort,
but warnings grew of a potential second wave of death among children
hard-hit by the lack of fresh water and proper shelter.

In one of the few positive notes of the day, British Foreign Office
Minister Lord Malloch-Brown told the BBC that he believes the rulers of
Burma may soon relent on allowing military ships to join in the relief
effort, especially if Asian go-betweens are involved.

At least 78,000 people were killed in the May 2-3 storm and another 56,000
are missing.

____________________________________

May 19, Reuters
France sees Security Council "cowardice" on Myanmar

French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner said on Monday countries on the
U.N. Security Council that did not agree to pressure Myanmar into opening
its doors to foreign aid were guilty of "cowardice".

France has tried unsuccessfully to convince the Council that Myanmar's
military rulers should let aid reach the victims of Cyclone Nargis under a
"responsibility to protect" principle recognised in a 2005 U.N. resolution
on armed conflicts.

China, Russia, Vietnam and South Africa have opposed Council involvement
in what they say is a humanitarian, not a political issue.

"We denounce the impending death of thousands more civilians, and we are
accused of meddling in the internal affairs of a sovereign state,"
Kouchner, who founded medical charity Medecins Sans Frontieres, said in an
opinion piece in newspaper Le Monde.

Kouchner recognised that a U.N. resolution enshrining the "responsibility
to protect" was only passed with armed conflicts in mind, and therefore
did not apply to Myanmar, where the cyclone hit two weeks ago, leaving
134,000 dead and missing.

Instead he cited a 1988 resolution which states that leaving the victims
of natural disasters without humanitarian assistance "constitutes a threat
to human life and an offence to human dignity" and invites states in need
of help to facilitate the work of aid groups.

"This is indeed a fundamental human right," Kouchner said.

"International policy, the morality of extreme emergency demand that it be
respected. The member states of the Security Council could only shy away
from it at the cost of cowardice," he added.

Kouchner's comments were written before the Association of Southeast Asian
Nations (ASEAN) said on Monday Myanmar would accept medical workers from
southeast Asian countries and was ready to accept international aid
agencies.

Humanitarian agencies say the death toll of Nargis, one of the most
devastating cyclones to hit Asia, could soar without a massive increase of
emergency food, water shelter and medicine to the worst-hit region, the
Irrawaddy Delta.

France has sent a warship with around 1,000 tonnes of humanitarian
equipment to the waters off the delta, but it has not received permission
from the junta to deliver the aid.

Myanmar's U.N. envoy accused France on Friday of sending a "warship", a
charge the French ambassador denied. France has said the junta is on the
verge of a "crime against humanity". (Reporting by Francois Murphy;
Editing by Ibon Villelabeitia)

____________________________________

May 19, Agence France Presse
Internet can force change in Myanmar: Brown

"People power" via the Internet could help shame Myanmar into accepting
foreign assistance for cyclone victims, British Prime Minister Gordon
Brown said Monday.

Hailing the Internet as a modern force for change, Brown said the web
meant the tragedy -- which is thought to have left some 134,000 people
dead or missing -- could no longer be kept a secret.

"It is true that in Burma we have not been able to get as much food and
supplies into Burma that we would like but now a country like Burma cannot
remain hidden," he told a conference organised by Internet giant Google.

"Direct people power is going to be a force not just for individual
countries but for foreign policy as well."

He predicted that "whether it is famine, cyclone or whatever, pressure
from the people is going to force government interaction".

Brown, who on Saturday described the Myanmar ruling junta of being
"inhuman" for refusing outside help, suggested that the Internet could
have helped give more details of the Rwandan genocide in 1995 as it was
developing.

Internet weblogs -- online diaries -- were now forcing governments to act
and be accountable, and could help force change in places like Myanmar,
Zimbabwe and Darfur, he added.

"They could feel people coming to express their anger about certain
events. The mood could have an impact that means governments will be
forced to change their institutions," he added.

Brown, who came to power last year vowing greater openness in government
and accountability for politicians, earlier Monday launched an online
version for the public of his weekly question and answer session with MPs.

At the conference he announced a tie-up between the British government and
Google for an online scheme to map climate change on its Google Earth
application.

As he spoke, Myanmar agreed at an emergency regional meeting in Singapore
to let its southeast Asian neighbours coordinate foreign assistance for
cyclone victims.

____________________________________
OPINION / OTHER

May 19, Wall Street Journal Asia
Orwell lives in Burma today - Emma Larkin

The ruling military junta here is trying hard to pretend it has the
country under control in the wake of Cyclone Nargis. On Saturday, the
regime flew foreign diplomats to neatly-configured aid camps. State-run
radio is optimistic. The regime's state newspaper, the New Light of
Myanmar, ran articles last week claiming the national relief operation is
officially over. Photographs showed soldiers loading or unloading
neatly-packed trucks filled with sacks of rice. Generals are seen handing
blankets to grateful survivors who kneel at their feet.

Welcome to the Orwellian world of life in Burma today, where the media
portrays a reality unknown to most residents. The real story is far more
horrifying.

On the ground here in an Irrawaddy Delta village called Kungyangon, near
Rangoon, aid workers report that the muddy, washed-out road is lined with
thousands of desperate people who have no place to live and no food to
feed themselves. A businessman who just returned from the worst-hit
south-western reaches of the Delta showed me film footage recorded in one
village over ten days after the cyclone hit. Blank-faced survivors said
they had not yet received aid of any kind. The camera captured bloated
bodies floating in ponds and flooded paddy fields.

Meanwhile, the few international aid agencies already on the ground here,
such as Save the Children and the World Food Programme, have been
prevented by the authorities from accessing affected areas. Most foreign
aid workers are confined to their offices in Rangoon, supported by small
teams of local Burmese staff who have been granted travel permission to
affected areas. Unable to travel down to the Delta -- the road is now
blocked by military checkpoints and foreigners who are caught are turned
back -- international disaster relief experts are holding secret meetings
to train local Burmese volunteers in the basic of emergency response
management. It's hardly enough when the junta itself admitted Friday that
78,000 have died from the Cyclone. This number is likely to increase as
disease and hunger kicks in.

The disconnect between what's happening here and what the state media
reports is nothing new. After the nationwide uprising of 1988, when an
estimated 3,000 people were killed by government soldiers, the regime
began a massive cover-up campaign, arresting dissidents and relocating
neighborhoods that had been considered hotbeds of political opposition.
After the demonstrations led by Buddhist monks in September last year,
when soldiers killed a still unconfirmed number of peaceful protestors,
the Burmese regime shut down Internet connections and limited the amount
of outside assistance allowed into the country.

The generals are well-practiced in hiding the truth of events, distorting
the news, and rewriting history in their own favor. When the international
community erupts in protest, they hunker down and wait for the
international attention to fade away.

Most Burmese seem resigned to this fate. This is the way the generals have
always acted and always will act, they say -- no matter what happens. They
are occupied with rebuilding damaged homes, coping with rising food and
fuel prices, and mobilizing whatever aid they can acquire to help people
in the Delta.

Barring a split in the regime, it is difficult to think that any kind of
immediate change or opening up can come from this. The generals are, after
all, using tried and tested methods of self-protection and displaying a
determination to hold on to power against all odds, and at any cost. The
epic proportion of this disaster only makes their actions more
unbelievable, and reprehensible.

Ms. Larkin is the pen name of an American writer based in Bangkok,
Thailand. She is the author of "Finding George Orwell in Burma" (Penguin,
2005).

____________________________________

May 19, The Nationa (Thailand)
Aftermath of cyclone Nargis: can Asean pull it off? - Kavi Chongkittavorn

When Asean secretary-general Surin Pitsuwan stopped over in Bangkok last
week on his way to Washington, he said the humanitarian catastrophe
brought about by Cyclone Nargis could serve as a catalyst to strengthen
the grouping's sense of community if "we do the right things and fast".

He expressed confidence that Asean would rise to the challenge.

The challenge that will be discussed by Asean foreign ministers at a
special meeting in Singapore today includes immediate, medium-term and
long-term strategies to rehabilitate the Irrawaddy Delta and the millions
of Burmese affected by the cyclone. Some of these can only be handled by
Asean, while others involving sophisticated or large-scale assistance will
require cooperation from the international community. Given the extent of
the devastation and the nature of the rogue Burmese regime, it is
important to have a balanced and effective approach to save lives.

Two assessments on the ground, one prepared by the Asean Secretariat and
the other by the Burmese junta, will form the gist of the input, though
other reports by UN-related agencies and international relief
organisations will also be considered.

The first task is to come up with reliable statistics of people killed and
affected, and an estimate of total assistance required. Rangoon's figure
of deaths reached nearly 78,000 over the weekend, with another 56,000
listed as missing. Various UN and international relief agencies say the
death toll is at least three times higher, in excess of 230,000, and put
the number of people affected at two million.

Experts from John Hopkins University's School of Public Health said last
week as many as 3.2 million Burmese have been affected, based on their own
research. The toll is expected to rise due to the slow distribution of aid
and relief efforts.

The second task is the division of labour between Asean and the
international community. This is a sensitive but important step that can
impact on the overall relief operation in months and years to come. There
is immediate assistance that Asean as a whole and its individual members
can provide. In the past 10 days they have provided both limited numbers
of rescue teams, including doctors, as well as food supplies and cash, but
it is inadequate.

At present, the Asean Disaster Management and Emergency Response agreed on
in July 2005 is the only framework that the grouping can use to tackle
natural disasters. When earthquakes rocked Yogyakarta and central Java in
May 2006, relief and rescue teams from Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines,
Singapore and Thailand sprang into action within hours. It will be clear
from the Asean Emergency Rapid Assessment team that the grouping does not
have the long-term capacity, capabilities or resources to handle natural
disasters of this scale. As such, Asean needs help from the so-called
non-Asean entities.

Burma and Asean do make distinctions between members of the international
community and their future involvement. The first tier is made up of Asian
dialogue partners such as Japan, China and India, which are crucial in
gaining the Burmese junta's trust. After the cyclone, Rangoon was more
lenient in issuing visas to Asians. Japan has the financial resources
while China and India share common borders that can facilitate future
humanitarian assistance. Their support is pivotal. Over the weekend,
officials from the Asean Secretariat were allowed to visit the delta.

The second tier includes Western countries such as the US, EU, Canada,
Australia and New Zealand. They have both the expertise and resources, but
their much-needed assistance, in the Asean collective view, is
problematic. The regime would rather see its people die than face
political uncertainty.

Finally, the third tier comprises UN-related and international relief
organisations and international financial institutions. UN
Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has been snubbed repeatedly by the junta.
However, other UN agencies such as the Office for the Coordination of
Humanitarian Assistance, Unicef and the World Food Programme already have
their officials on the ground.

Since the UN is planning an emergency summit on the Burmese cyclone, the
world body is following the outcome of the Singapore meeting today. They
have to work in tandem, with programmes that are complementary. Whatever
the future plans are, Asean has to do away with its "Asean-knows-best"
mindset.

Asean must show competency in leading an international effort to help the
cyclone's victims without being manipulated by the junta. Asean must press
Burma for quick admission of aid, otherwise it will face difficulty in
getting the UN and the international community to rally behind it.

____________________________________

May 19, Cutting Edge Contributor
The time to invade Burma is now—and time is running out - Benedict Rogers

Every day, the death toll in Burma rises, following Cyclone Nargis over
two weeks ago. Every day, the calls for international action grow. Every
day, the diplomats and politicians talk. Every day, the efforts to
negotiate with the regime yield little result. And every day, the regime
tightens the noose around its people.

Even today, although there are reportedly small signs of improvement, aid
is still restricted. Aid workers are obstructed. British Foreign Office
minister Lord Malloch Brown, visiting Rangoon, claims the aid operation is
“starting to move,” but admits that only 25% of the cyclone victims have
received assistance. The regime now claims 78,000 dead, but the real
figure is much, much higher. Several days ago the International Committee
of the Red Cross put the death toll at almost 130,000 – and that figure
has certainly increased further by now. The UN has said as many as 2.5
million people are in urgent need of help, and has called for an air or
sea corridor to be opened to channel aid to Burma. Lord Malloch Brown has
called the crisis “a huge human catastrophe.”

Even if more aid reaches the country, the suffering will continue unless
international aid workers are allowed in to monitor the distribution,
assess the situation and provide much-needed expertise. Yet Burma’s
military regime continues to refuse access. Last week the military put up
roadblocks to prevent foreigners from entering the affected areas, saying
the situation is under control.

An under-reported but important dimension to this, is that a large
proportion of the population in the affected Irrawaddy Delta region come
from the Karen ethnic group. The Karen ethnic group has been the target of
the military regime’s policies of ethnic cleansing bordering on genocide
for decades. The regime is hostile not only to all forms of opposition,
but to non-Burmans and non-Buddhists. The fact that the Karen are a
different ethnicity, and that many of them are Christians, may well have
featured in the regime’s decision to put a stranglehold on aid efforts.

How much longer can this go on? There has been tough talk – but so far, it
remains talk. The Burmese regime has had two weeks to negotiate – it has
shown its true colours. Much of the aid has been seized by the authorities
and sold on the streets for profit, or used for propaganda purposes. There
are reports that when the Generals visit the disaster zones, they
distribute aid for the cameras – and then, in the utmost cruelty, the
victims are forced to return the relief packages once the cameras have
gone.

In some areas, Burmese civilians who have cleared the roads of fallen
trees and scattered roofing have been forced by the authorities to put the
debris back on the road, so that regime officials and soldiers can be
filmed by state media “helping” to clean up after the cyclone. But after a
few poses for the camera next to a fallen tree, the officials move on and
the civilians must clear the remainder by themselves. As if that were not
bad enough, Burmese people attempting to distribute aid have been attacked
by the regime’s militia. And there are now unconfirmed reports that women
in the disaster area are being raped by Burmese soldiers.

The regime’s inhumanity and depravity is sickening. The time has come now,
surely, to act. Of course diplomacy and negotiation should always be the
first step, and military intervention the last resort. But diplomacy and
negotiation are not defined by infinity. Deadlines, benchmarks and
timeframes should be set out. And if international aid workers are not
given unrestricted access by a specified date, the UN should put its much
trumpeted “responsibility to protect” provisions in action.

If China vetoes action rendering the UN powerless, an independent
multilateral coalition should be formed by the United States, the United
Kingdom, France and other allies – operating under the responsibility to
protect mandate, even without a specific UN authorization. They should do
whatever it takes to ensure the delivery of aid and expertise to Burma.
The time for such action is fast approaching. The regime should be given
hours, at most two days, to comply.

If the US, the UK and France were willing to act, they should do so
wholeheartedly. That means a land operation with international aid workers
and aid accompanied by military protection. Air drops are better than
nothing, but the impact would be limited. Supplies dropped from the air
could land in flood water or paddy fields and be left to rot, or seized by
the regime. There is no guarantee the people can reach the aid if it is
dropped from the sky. So even if some aid is dropped from the air, a land
operation should follow.

It is also time to bring the junta to justice. This regime, one of the
worst in the world, should be brought to the International Criminal Court.
Already the list of crimes against humanity committed by the Generals is
long – the widespread and systematic use of rape as a weapon of war,
forced labour, torture, killings, the use of human minesweepers, the
forcible conscription of child soldiers and the destruction of more than
3,200 villages in eastern Burma alone since 1996. Add to this catalogue of
horrors the regime’s deliberate denial of aid to the victims of Cyclone
Nargis. It is not just the failure to issue visas to international aid
workers. It is not simply neglect. The deliberate diversion, manipulation
and denial of aid must surely count as an “inhumane act” deserving of
prosecution.

Burma is yet another test case for the world. The time for talking is
over. For the US and the UK, this is an opportunity to show that it will
intervene not only when its own interests are threatened, as in Iraq and
Afghanistan, but when there is a clear moral case to do so. For the UK
specifically, this is an opportunity to show that it has not, after all,
forgotten its former allies in Burma whose loyalty has for 60 years been
betrayed. After the genocide in Rwanda, world leaders said “never again.”
If the UN and countries such as the US which are in a position to act, to
get aid in and break this regime’s iron rule, continue to opt for endless
negotiation rather than action, once more we will be crying out “never
again.”

Benedict Rogers is the author of A Land Without Evil: Stopping the
Genocide of Burma's Karen People (Monarch, 2004), and has visited Burma
and its borderlands more than 20 times. He also serves as Deputy Chairman
of the UK Conservative Party Human Rights Commission.

http://www.thecuttingedgenews.com/index.php?article=509

____________________________________

May 19, International Herald Tribune
Send in the latrines – Rose George

It's the rainy season in Myanmar. It's also cholera season. When Cyclone
Nargis arrived two weeks ago, the waters it unleashed destroyed houses and
killed people and livestock. The storm also devastated other things that
haven't made the headlines, but that can mean the difference between life
and death: toilets.

Even before the cyclone, 75 percent of Burmese had no latrines. Like some
2.6 billion other people worldwide, they do their business by roadsides,
on train tracks or wherever they can. But the few latrines that did exist
in the Irrawaddy Delta are now flooded or flattened, and their contents
have seeped into already filthy waters.

So what? There are other priorities, aren't there? Food, shelter and clean
water are what aid agencies emphasize. But human excrement is a weapon of
mass destruction. A gram of human feces can contain up to 10 million
viruses. At least 50 communicable diseases - including cholera, meningitis
and typhoid - travel from host to host in human excrement. It doesn't take
much: a small child, maybe, who plays in soil where people have been
defecating, then dips his fingers in the family rice pot. The aftermath of
a disaster like Cyclone Nargis - with masses of weakened people on the
move - is a communicable disease paradise.

The priority is containment. That's as fancy as it sounds: With the water
table only 20 centimeters below the surface in Myanmar, it is little use
to dig pit latrines, so buckets or tanks for human waste are needed
instead. Providing such things is made harder by the refusal of Myanmar's
government to accept help. And it is also hampered by our unwillingness to
even talk about it.

In our sanitary, plumbed lives, the toilet - an engineering marvel -
removes waste out of sight and out of mind. As Steven Pinker recently
wrote in "The Stuff of Thought," the vocabulary of excretion has sneaked
in and taken the taboo place previously held by religious words, and this
switch parallels the rise of sewers and the sanitizing of excrement. A
substance common to us all, and as vital to life as breathing, has become
unspeakable, and particularly in the polite and powerful circles that
could do something about its deadly effects.

There's no place for squeamishness when - even without complicated and
difficult disasters like Myanmar's - diarrhea trails only pneumonia as the
biggest killer of small children in the world, greater than tuberculosis,
AIDS or malaria.

Humanitarian aid agencies use the shorthand "watsan" to stand for "water
and sanitation." There's a reason those two words aren't in alphabetical
order, and it's not poetry. When it comes to prioritizing aid, water has
always received the lion's share of attention and money. Eddy Perez, a
sanitation expert at the World Bank's Water and Sanitation Program, often
shows an image of Arnold Schwarzenegger and Danny DeVito from the film
"Twins." One represents water and the other sanitation, and he doesn't
have to spell out which is which. Most developing countries spend less
than 0.5 percent of their gross domestic product on watsan, and only 12
percent to 15 percent of that in Asia and sub-Saharan Africa goes to
sanitation, according to the 2006 United Nations Human Development Report.

Celebrities like Matt Damon and Jay-Z line up to talk about water. Shiny
taps and clean water make good pictures. I've never seen a movie star
pictured in front of a new latrine, though it can double its user's life
span.

Of course food and water are crucial. But feces can undermine both. If
people are eating fecal particles, no amount of high-energy biscuits will
make them well. In poor countries, diarrhea is the reason you find
malnourished children in well-fed families. It's why millions of girls
drop out of school, and why millions of dollars' worth of productivity is
lost from workers sick with this week's bout of dysentery.

Good disposal of human excreta can reduce diarrhea by 40 percent. Washing
hands reduces it still further. Health economists reckon that every dollar
invested in sanitation can save $7 on health costs and lost productivity.
No wonder the readers of The British Medical Journal last year voted
sanitation the greatest medical milestone ever, over penicillin and
anesthesia.

In Myanmar, aid agencies are struggling to recruit Asian workers who are
more acceptable to the country's paranoid junta. If these people can get
in, they'll start dispensing buckets. These are very early stages, Patrick
McCormick, a spokesman for Unicef, told me. Everything is still chaotic.
But these early days of disaster aftermath provide the cracks into which
cholera sneaks. This year, the International Year of Sanitation, is a fine
time to address a pointless and damaging conversational taboo. Solving
sanitation is about more than semantics. But our refusal to talk about it
says something about us, and none of it good.

Rose George is the author of the forthcoming "The Big Necessity: The
Unmentionable World of Human Waste and Why It Matters."

____________________________________
STATEMENT

May 19, Action Network For Migrants (Thailand)
Demands immediate response by ASEAN for victims of Cyclone Nargis in Burma

We, concerned ASEAN Thai NGOs, civil society groups and migrant worker
associations, are perturbed by the failure of the Burmese government to
provide prompt and immediate response to the victims of cyclone Nargis and
the tidal surge, which hit Burma on 3rd May 2008, and to date, have caused
the death of more than 100 thousand persons and has rendered millions of
families homeless. A prompt and immediate response would have saved so
many lives and prevented unnecessary further sufferings. We cannot accept
this government sponsored crimes against humanity.

In the two weeks that have passed, only a small minority of the victims
have received any form of assistance.

People continue to die from dehydration, lack of food, and infections of
the injuries sustained by reason of lack of medical care.

The World Health Organisation (WHO) has also warned, that if conditions
remain the same, soon water-borne diseases will wipe out huge sections of
the affected people. This is totally unacceptable.

The international community did immediately offer assistance to people of
Burma but the Burmese-SPDC government has generally denied access. The
junta refused to issue visas for emergency relief workers, and this has
impeded the flow of aid into the country to the victims of the calamity.
While aid is prevented entry, more lives are lost unnecessarily.

While professing to be capable of handling the situation themselves, the
SPDC government, till this day, has yet to mount even a proper search and
rescue operation. They have also not installed any effective system to
reach the persons and families in dire need of assistance.

The actions and omissions of the SPDC continue to result in unnecessary
and, definitely, avoidable death and suffering of human persons and
families.

ASEAN, being the body of governments representing the people of ASEAN, has
the duty and responsibility to protect lives and “the high quality
of life of its people” [ASEAN Charter, Article 1, Purpose No9 ].
Myanmar (Burma) is a member of ASEAN. ASEAN has, to date, sadly also
failed to do enough to effectively fulfill its responsibility to the
people of ASEAN, the victims of this natural disaster in the Irrawaddy
delta.

It should not be forgotten that the ASEAN, and all the member states, are
also now responsible for the loss of life and the additional sufferings
brought about by the actions of SPDC-government that prevented necessary
aid and assistant reaching the victims of cyclone Nargis .

We, urge ASEAN, and ASEAN member countries, -

 To ‘walk the talk’ and immediately fulfill its duty, declared
obligation and responsibility to protect the people of ASEAN, especially
the millions of people affected by Cyclone Nargis.
 To compel the SPDC government of Myanmar to immediately remove all
existing impediments to enable the free and speedy flow of aid to the
victims and their families, especially to the most affected and still
neglected areas.
 To do all that is necessary to obtain an immediate response from the
Burmese government, which may include but not limited to the cutting of
all diplomatic ties with Myanmar and the immediate expulsion of Myanmar
from the ASEAN.
 To immediately do all that is necessary, in the event that the Burmese
government continues to fail in its obligations, to immediately get aid
to the affected persons and families in the Irrawaddy delta, to prevent
any further loss of human life.

We also call on ASEAN Secretariat to urgently address the abovementioned
issues at the ASEAN Foreign Ministers emergency meeting in Singapore on 19
May 2008.

Pranom Somwong,
Adisorn Kerdmongkol,
Ko Ko Aung

for and on behalf of the
Action Network for Migrants (Thailand) – ANM

For further information contact:-
Pranom Somwong; Telephone +60192371300
Adisorn Kerdmongkonl; Telephone +6687887138 Ko Ko Aung; Telephone
+66869958119

____________________________________
INTERVIEWS

May 19, Irrawaddy
A shattered rice bowl - Sean Turnell

Burma specialist Sean Turnell of Macquarie University in Australia
recently spoke to The Irrawaddy about the politics of rice, the junta’s
bank balance and the possibility of humanitarian intervention.

Question: The Burmese military junta has announced a figure of 5 billion
kyat (US $4.4 million) to cover the Cyclone Nargis devastation. Do you
think this is enough money to resolve the crisis?

Sean Turnell

Answer: No not at all. I think it’s the most extraordinarily mean-spirited
thing imaginable. I think it’s important to remember, of course, that the
regime currently has around $4 billion in foreign exchange reserves that
they got from the gas sales. In kyat terms that’s over 4 trillion kyat. So
the idea that they’re giving 5 billion kyat in relief funds is the most
extraordinarily ungenerous thing imaginable. Also of course, this is the
people’s money; it’s not the generals’ money at all. They’ve accumulated
all of Burma’s vast export revenue from the gas, which should belong to
the people, so the idea that they’re handing back is an extraordinarily
poor thing and it unfortunately summarizes so much of what the regime’s
response has been to this cyclone.

Q: The junta earns so much money every year from selling and exporting
gas. Where are they hiding this money?

A: The Burmese regime is currently earning just over $100 million every
single month. If we have a look at the public accounts, what we see is an
incredible accounting trick—the regime has logged into the public accounts
the gas revenue according to the official exchange rate, which undervalues
it by 200 times. Effectively, that means that $3 billion is sitting
somewhere. Now where it’s sitting is the interesting question, but what we
do know is that it’s sitting somewhere where Burmese people can’t get
access to it.

So either it’s sitting offshore or it’s sitting in the accounts of the
Myanmar Foreign Trade Bank or the Central Bank. But it looks like it’s
only accessible by Than Shwe and perhaps one or two others; it’s not being
used for the benefit of the Burmese people, which of course is critical at
the moment. This sort of money can do an enormous amount with regard to
the cyclone disaster, but it seems to be deliberately withheld.

Q: Not all the money is really being spent on victims and survivors. Where
are the authorities going to use this money?

A: Well I think we can expect the money to be used in the way they’ve
always used foreign exchange—for things like the new capital at Naypyidaw,
for the nuclear reactor, if that goes ahead. I’m sure people will remember
the 1,000 percent pay increases for senior military personnel and various
other wasteful capital projects like that. They are, in a sense,
glorifying the regime rather than relieving the suffering, which is
certainly the most important way the money could be used at the moment.

Q: The Irrawaddy basin is one of the important “rice bowls” in Southeast
Asia and very important for Burma’s economy. Since this rice bowl has been
destroyed in the cyclone, what will the impact be on Burma’s people, the
economy and food security in the future?

A: The effect on the future, I’m afraid, is very poor—in the short term,
the medium term and, indeed, the long term. In the short term, of course,
we’ve seen the destruction of much of the current harvest, but we’ll also
see at least the next two harvests are going to be greatly affected and
there’ll be virtually no output from those areas during that time. So
we’re likely to see considerable food and rice shortages for the next
couple of years.

The damage to the economy is going to be profound because the timing of
this could not be worse with the world’s rice prices at record levels and
many other countries restricting exports and so on. It’s going to be very
difficult to replace the rice that was grown in the delta. It’s going to
be very expensive. On top of all that, we’ve seen communications and
transport links destroyed, so it’s going to be very difficult to
distribute rice that’s been harvested or which is brought in from
overseas.

The short-term suffering to both the people and the economy is going to be
somewhat severe. In the medium and longer terms, we have to be worried
about the damage to infrastructure, to roads and communications—aspects
that we’ve mentioned already. But what is particularly worrying is the
inundation of seawater into the Irrawaddy delta. We have to be worried
about the impact of salt. The salinity damage to these rice-growing areas
may last for several years. So, unfortunately, the damage is profound,
both in the immediate period and then right out into the medium and longer
terms.

Q: Will there be any impact on the Southeast Asian region?

A: Yes. The whole of Southeast Asia will be impacted by this, because with
rice prices really high and the rice shortages at the moment, one might
have hoped that Burma would emerge as a large exporter once again. This
would have benefited Burma and the region because Burma’s production would
have lowered the general price of rice. So, this disaster is not only
going to affect Burma, but the rest of Southeast Asia and South Asia, such
as India. The global economy will be affected as well.

Q: After the cyclone hit Burma the US eased sanctions on Burma. In your
opinion, what will be the pitfalls of this and how can the regime take
advantage of it?

A: I think, so far, there’s been an opening-up of contacts between the
West and Burma, but it really just relates to short-term issues concerning
the actual survival of Burmese people.

I think in the longer term, governments are going to take an even harder
line because I think the rest of the world has been greatly shocked by
these events. I’m currently over here in England; they are really shocked
that a government would let its own people starve to death and let disease
breed in the wake of a natural disaster. It’s having an extraordinary
effect on international opinion. I think, in the long term—if this regime
lasts—sanctions are going to get stronger.

Beyond sanctions, the real discussion in the US and Europe at the moment
is “should we intervene?” Has the regime now crossed the line that some
sort of more direct intervention should not occur?

Q: Now international governments and UN are trying to get aid into Burma
to help survivors from the cyclone. However, the Burmese government is
being very tough about letting relief supplies and assistance into the
country. Do you think the UN should do more and what role can the UN take?

A: Well it’s very difficult for the UN. Frankly I think that they should
do much more than they’re doing. Under the new ordinance, the
“Responsibility to Protect,” which came in a couple of years ago, there is
a duty for every UN country to do as much as they can here, because it’s
quite clear that the regime in Burma is not protecting its citizens
responsibly. The international community, under the recent changes to the
UN charter, has a responsibility here. What to do, of course, is very
difficult. Any sort of intervention can be resisted by the regime.
However, it seems clear that some direct intervention is required, and
whether this means food drops, or whether it means convoys going into the
country under armed guard, it’s interesting to speculate whether the
military regime would resist that or not. One of the most interesting
things about this is that the Burmese armed forces are not as strong as
everyone thought they were—they’re quite a shambles in fact. So, whether
or not they can put up a resistance is an interesting point. But I think
we’ve reached the point where people are saying that some sort of direct
intervention is required.