BurmaNet News, July 12-14, 2008

[Editor]

July 12-14, 2008 Issue #3510


INSIDE BURMA
Mizzima News: Junta plans to pull strings to win elections
Mizzima News: Poll reveals most Burmese ignorant about constitution
DVB: NDA-K makes preparations for 2010 elections
DVB: U Win Tin receives treatment for bronchitis
AP: Agencies seek to protect cyclone orphans
Irrawaddy: Bomb explodes on bus in Pegu
SHAN: Junta members assassinated at dinner party

BUSINESS / TRADE
Irrawaddy: Aceh fishermen serving jail terms in Burma
Xinhua: Myanmar's private companies to build over 6,000 low-cost houses
for cyclone victims

ASEAN
Irrawaddy: More relief effort needed: Asean Secretary-General

REGIONAL
Irrawaddy: Armed Burmese uprising “likely consequence”: Chomsky

OPINION / OTHER
Narinjara News: Burma after Nargis: Devastated, depressed and dejected
Irrawaddy: The 2010 election challenges



____________________________________
INSIDE BURMA

July 14, Mizzima News
Junta plans to pull strings to win elections – Htet Win

There are several options the military regime can resort to before and the
2010 multi-party democracy elections, apart from its self-acclaimed
constitutional rights, to cling to power.

The first thing several top-ranking generals – especially the present
leader Senior General Than Shwe – are turning themselves into civilians to
set up a military-backed political party, through which they will run or
be selected by the Commander-in-Chief as representatives for their
respective constituencies in the election in 2010.

That would be the way the generals prefer most to make sure that they win
the forthcoming election, said a senior member of the Union Solidarity and
Development Association (USDA) of Thingangyun township in Rangoon. The
USDA is a proxy of the military regime to politically maneuver in Burma.

He added that the military regime had planned to make an announcement next
month that all political parties are to register for contesting the
election.

Secondly, the top-ranking generals would transform the USDA to a political
party which will support the military generals. That party would be much
like the National Unity Party in the 1990 election, the results of which
the military regime ignored and has been recently declared no longer
valid.

The USDA member, who does not wish to be identified, said the military
generals would continue defying the desire of the populace and the
international community as well, adding that the generals cared about
their own plan at their own pace.

"The military regime also has a well-rounded plan to restrict and harass
any potential political party or political figures who are really seeking
a free and fair election to usher in democracy in Myanmar (Burma)," he
said.

In the third option, the regime would resort to relying on the young
generation with political segments such as National League for Democracy
(Wuntharnu) and local media owners who are viewing themselves as potential
political representatives. They are now in their forties, having close
business ties but covertly with high-ranking military authorities for
commercial interests.

"Among them are also young businessmen who have built their personal ties
with the military authority for business," the USDA member said.

Both the general secretary Aung San Suu Kyi and vice president of NLD U
Tin Oo are currently under house arrest. NLD won a landslide victory in
1990 general elections but the junta refused to hand over power.

Moreover, the junta formulated a seven-step so-called road map to
democracy and its fifth step is to hold general elections.

The referendum on the constitution, the fourth step of the road map, which
guarantees the role of military in future government was held in May 10
and 27 despite Nargis Cyclone killing more than 138,000 people a few days
earlier.

Another option is that the USDA may not transform into a political party
but a breeding ground for election candidates as individuals and Hluttaws
(Houses) will be filled up with a majority of pro-military
parliamentarians along with some representatives of cease-fire ethnic
group's parliamentarians. The junta hopes some ethnic groups will
participate in the elections. In this case, there will be no political
party for opposition and only individual opposition.

Last but not the least, senior National League for Democracy members – now
in their seventies – would be props to the generals who are wielding their
strong positions in power.

"The political figures – such as Aung San Suu Kyi and U Tin Oo, and young
as Min Ko Naing and Ko Ko Gyi – are now in detention. Without them the
NLD's political activities, especially for competing in the election is
not as absolutely reliable as it was in 1990," said a Mandalay-based
political observer.

The government is also preparing to make amendments to the 1990 election
law in order to keep out those who contested the election then and were
against the military regime, he said.

The observer continued that present NLD activities are already infiltrated
with thugs and informers orchestrated by the military regime.

"That way, the generals not just divide and rule the country but divide
and will win the election also," he said.

Every option could be a success story for the generals, while all of them
could be coming in a unified fashion to make sure that results of the 2010
election is in favour of the generals.

However, it is intense international pressure and recent domestic
struggles that moved the junta to hold a referendum in May on a proposed
new constitution written under military guidance, to be followed by a
general election in 2010.

The generals seem to be aware that their slow progress to a democracy
could pave the way for others – including some western nations – to
intervene or exploit Burma domestic affairs, and they are poised to become
stronger, said the observer.

Meanwhile, the new constitution guarantees 25 percent of parliamentary
seats to the military, plus it allows the president to hand over all power
to the military in a state of emergency.

____________________________________

July 14, Mizzima News
Poll reveals most Burmese ignorant about constitution

Many Burmese in Rangoon said, they had no clue about the contents of the
recently approved constitution, drafted by the ruling military government,
though they voted in its favour.

Despite the junta's claim that its draft constitution has been
overwhelmingly  supported by 92.48 per cent of all eligible voters, a
random survey conducted among residents of Rangoon, Burma's largest city,
showed most respondents are unaware of the contents of the constitution
that will determine their future.

Of the 50 respondents, in a random telephone survey conducted by Mizzima,
only one person, a businessman, said he understood the contents of the
constitution and accepted it as he believes it is suitable for the Burmese
people.

But the rest of the respondents or 49 people said they have no idea of the
contents of the constitution. But ironically, except for two people – a
woman shopkeeper and a businessman – the rest or 48 people said they have
all cast their votes in favour of the constitution during the referendum
conducted in May.

"I don't understand what the constitution is but I just cast my vote to
relieve myself from all pressure," said a private vendor in Kyauktada
Township.

Similarly, most respondents said they have no time to think of what the
constitution is as they are struggling for their daily bread.

Burma's military government on May 10 conducted a referendum across the
country to have its draft constitution approved, which they chalked out
without the participation of opposition groups.

But the junta was forced to postpone the referendum for 47 townships in
Rangoon and Irrawaddy divisions to May 24, as the region was reeling under
the impact of Cyclone Nargis that hit the area on May 2-3.

Despite international as well as internal condemnation, the junta went
ahead with its referendum polling and declared that 92.48 per cent of
eligible voters had supported the constitution. The junta also put the
voter turn out at 98.12 per cent.

A politically aware youth in Rangoon said most people in Rangoon, where
about six million or more than 10 per cent of Burma's population reside,
are struggling for their daily bread and the people do not care what the
constitution is all about.

"People just want to get on with their lives, and do not have the time and
inclination for politics," the youth told Mizzima.

____________________________________

July 14, Democratic Voice of Burma
NDA-K makes preparations for 2010 elections – Htet Aung Kyaw

Za Khun Ting Ring, chairman of the New Democratic Army-Kachin, a ceasefire
group based in Pan Wah in Kachin Special Region (1) on the border with
China, said the group is now preparing to contest the 2010 elections.

Za Khun Ting Ring said the decision to participate in the elections was
supported not only by the NDA-K but also by the other ceasefire groups and
political organisations in Kachin state.

NDA-K now intends to establish itself as a political organisation and
start campaigning in Kachin state after discussions with the Kachin
Independence Organisation and other Kachin groups.

He said the group also plans to restructure its troops in line with the
new constitution.

"After the elections, we will be able to have a dialogue with government
to come to an agreement – it will suit us better to transform,” Za Khun
Ting Ring said.

“It is likely that we will be disarmed in the future as part of the
government’s seven-step roadmap for the future. There will be no outcome
if we don’t comply with the steps."

Za Khun Ting Ring, 70, was the commander of the 101 military region which
broke away from Burmese Communist Party control in 1989. In December of
the same year, he signed a ceasefire agreement with the government in the
name of the NDA-K.

The NDA-K participated in the national convention from 2004, along with
other ceasefire groups, and supported the SPDC government's seven-step
roadmap to democracy.

In September 2005, a breakaway group led by the NDA-K secretary staged a
coup aimed at taking control in Pan Wah.

In May 2006, a fight broke out among NDA-K members in the Kan Paik Tee
area, since which the group has come under increased pressure from the
government.

____________________________________

July 14, Democratic Voice of Burma
U Win Tin receives treatment for bronchitis – Htet Aung Kyaw

Veteran journalist and long-term political prisoner U Win Tin has received
medical attention in Insein prison, where he has been detained for past 19
years, according to a regular visitor.

U Win Tin's close friend U Maung Maung Khin, who has been visiting the
79-year-old journalist every two weeks, said he had been diagnosed with
bronchitis when he was admitted to Rangoon general hospital recently.

U Maung Maung Khin said U Win Tin is now feeling better after taking the
medication prescribed by prison doctors for his condition.

Media rights groups such as Reporters Without Borders and Amnesty
International recently called for U Win Tin to be released and receive
medical attention, but U Maung Maung Khin said U Win Tin expected to
remain behind bars.

"He said he's already been there for 19 years and he doubts he will be
free before he reaches 20 years," said U Maung Maung Khin.

"But he said he didn't really care whether they release him or not – he is
still sticking to his strong beliefs."

U Maung Maung Khin said U Win Tin did not want to be released for reasons
of age or health.

"U Win Tin said he would only accept being released on political grounds
because he was arrested on political grounds, and he wouldn’t agree if the
government wanted to release him just because he is old," his friend said.

During his time in prison, U Win Tin has made several calls for the
release of opposition leader Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and other political
prisoners, for a parliamentary meeting to be convened and for dialogue
between the government and the opposition groups.

____________________________________

July 14, Associated Press
Agencies seek to protect cyclone orphans

Now, 12-year-old Thwe Zin Win must try to play the role of mother. Every
night, she lulls her little twin sisters to sleep with a soothing lullaby
their mother once sang to them—before the storm swept away her parents
forever.

"Every night I dream about them coming back," says Thwe Zin Win, huddled
in a tiny thatch hut the orphans share with grandparents, who eke out a
hand-to-mouth existence while she cares for her siblings rather than going
to school.

The three children are among a still unknown number of orphans coping with
hardships—physical and mental—more than two months after Cyclone Nargis
raged through Burma's Irrawaddy Delta, leaving a trail of flattened
villages and broken lives.

In an impoverished, military-ruled country with a threadbare social safety
net, aid workers are also warning that these orphans of the storm are
targets of exploitation, including recruitment into Burma's army which has
been accused by the UN, the US and human rights groups of inducting
thousands of child soldiers.

"As I have seen from many other countries, including those in Asia and
Africa, being orphans simply increases their vulnerability to becoming
child soldiers, forced laborers, being trafficked or involved in sex
work," says Ashley Clements, a spokesman for the US-based aid group World
Vision.

Because of such fears, agencies like World Vision working in the
cyclone-devastated region are advocating placement of orphans with
surviving relatives, like the grandparents in Thwe Zin Win's case, rather
than in orphanages.

"The goal is to put in place a mechanism to protect children from neglect,
violence, abuse and exploitation," says a statement from the UN Children's
Fund, which is supporting 51, community-based "child-friendly spaces" to
provide education, recreation and other aid to children storm survivors,
including orphans.

But orphans like Thwe Zin Win have so far had access to neither help nor
games from foreign aid groups or Burmese government agencies.

"Every day my grandmother and I cook for them, wash their clothes, play
with them, give them showers and send them to bed," she says of her tasks
as a full-time keeper of the 2-year-old siblings, which have forced her to
drop out of school.

A few miles (kilometers) away in Thome Gwe village, another 12-year-old
girl, Su Myat Swe Yu, remains traumatized by the loss of her parents, a
brother, sister and three close relatives on one disastrous night. She and
two brothers who also were spared now struggle for survival with their
grandfather, a rice farmer who lost his house and livestock—"everything we
owned," he said—to the cyclone.

Both families have been approached by strangers from urban areas offering
to adopt the children—and both have refused.

"I don't want to give them away. They are my son's children. I have also
heard stories about children being bought and sold. My only goal in life
now is taking care of my grandchildren," said Su Myat Swe Yu's
grandfather, Khin Maung Than.

To deter child trafficking, the government has forbidden adoption of storm
orphans. While there have been no reports of child survivors being forced
into the military, the US-based Human Rights Watch last year detailed the
recruitment of thousands of boys as young as 10 to fill shortages in army
ranks.

These and similar accusations have been denied by the regime, which says
it is trying to stop all human trafficking.

State media said that in mid-June authorities rescued 80 women and
children, all cyclone victims, from traffickers scheming to smuggle them
into a neighboring country, apparently Thailand.

Disguised as aid workers, the traffickers reportedly took the survivors
from the Irrawaddy Delta, where most of the storm's nearly 140,000 dead or
missing had lived.

International aid agencies estimate about half the 84,500 officially
listed as dead were youngsters but only partial information has been
collected on the number of orphans as the Department of Social Welfare and
foreign groups continue tracing victims.

UNICEF spokesman Zafrin Chowdhury said the agency has identified 428
separated and unaccompanied children among survivors by the end of June.
Clements said that in one village, three of out 10 children he spoke to
had lost their parents.

"I don't think this number represents the whole picture, but I have been
to different villages in the delta, where a lot of children have lost
their fathers, mothers or both," Clements said.

In a country with one of the world's worst health care systems and few
social services, Burmese government orphanages offer minimal care, and the
regime, which exercises tight control over the population, restricts and
sometimes punishes private humanitarian efforts.

The one saving grace is an abiding tradition of the closely knit, extended
family in which orphans like Thwe Zin Win and her sisters are lovingly
taken into the homes of relatives.

"My lost daughter has left me her children and I will try to take care of
them," said Thwe Zin Win's grandmother. And in turn the 12-year-old
sacrifices to help her sisters.

"Usually when I sing the song that my mother used to sing they fall asleep
more easily," she says. "The song starts with 'Oh my children, fall into
sleep. Whoever you will become, you must always be brave.' At night they
only sleep if I sing that song."

____________________________________

July 14, Irrawaddy
Bomb explodes on bus in Pegu – Min Lwin

A bomb exploded in a highway bus around 8 a.m. On Monday near the town of
Daik-U in Pegu Division. The explosion occurred near the Kawliya Bridge as
the bus was traveling from Kyaukkyi, Pegu Division, to Rangoon on Burma’s
main Rangoon-Mandalay highway. According to initial reports, one person
was killed and five were injured. However, other sources say the blast
left at least four people dead.

No further details were immediately available.
____________________________________

July 14, Shan Herald Agency for News
Junta members assassinated at dinner party – Hseng Khio Fah

Two junta officials in Kholam, Namzang township, southern Shan State,
along with two other civilians were shot by unknown gunmen while they were
having dinner, according to SHAN sources.

Yesterday evening, at 18:00, Deputy commander, Major Aung Thiha and Capt
Soe Min Aye from Infantry Battalion#66, based in Kholam and two teak
traders (not identified) were shot while having meal at a teak trader’s
house. They died instantly, said a source.

 “Those unknown gunmen, 3-4 of them shot from the window. It was like they
[authorities] were being trailed,” said the source. “There was no one to
provide security during the time.”

There had been no other casualty.

No further details have emerged so far.

____________________________________
BUSINESS / TRADE

July 14, Irrawaddy
Aceh fishermen serving jail terms in Burma – Violet Cho

Ten Acehnese fishermen have been serving two-year prison sentences since
February for unauthorized entry into Burmese territorial waters, according
to Indonesia’s foreign ministry.

The Indonesian English-language daily, The Jakarta Post, reported that the
Aceh Fishermen’s Association asked the foreign ministry to provide legal
assistance after it discovered that ten of its members were being detained
in Mergui Prison, in Burma’s Tenasserim Division.

The association learned of their detention by the Burmese authorities
after one of the prisoners sent a fax message to his brother on July 11.

“We have a directorate of protection in the Indonesian embassy in Myanmar
[Burma] that will follow up any information on Indonesian citizens being
detained in Myanmar,” ministry spokesman Teuku Faizasyah said.

The 10 fishermen were among 15 Acehnese on board two fishing vessels that
went missing in Indonesian waters bordering Burma in February. The
whereabouts of the other five crew members is still unknown.

Aceh province occupies the extreme northwestern tip of the island of
Sumatra. Its waters border Indian, Malaysian, Sri Lankan and Burmese
territories and many Aceh fishermen have been arrested in the past for
violating boundaries.

____________________________________

July 14, Xinhua
Myanmar's private companies to build over 6,000 low-cost houses for
cyclone victims

Sixteen private construction companies in Myanmar will build over 6,000
low-cost houses for homeless storm victims at seven disaster-affected
areas, the country's weekly Flower News reported Monday.

The 16 companies, including Asia World, Htoo, FMI, MAX, Shwe Thanlwin,
will construct 5,700 low-cost houses in 23 villages in Ayeyawaddy
division's six townships and 350 in Yangon division's Kungyankon township
alone, the report said.

Earlier, the government's National Disaster Preparedness Central Committee
assigned a total of 30 private companies to undertake reconstruction work
in 17 disaster-affected areas.

Myanmar is reclaiming land plots in the cyclone-hit areas and planning to
build up to 100,000 low-cost provisional houses for homeless storm
victims.

The authorities are also pleading for more donations for the resettlement
of storm survivors, outlining urgently-needed items for well-wishers to
make the move individually or in groups.

Low-cost house, non-powered and powered fishing boat, powered tiller and
fertilizer are among the urgently-need items appealed for increased
donation.

These low-cost houses at 500,000 to 600,000 Kyats (450 to 540 U.S.
dollars) each will be constructed for the survived villagers in Ayeyawaddy
delta region's Laputta, Bogalay, Dedaye and Phyapon.

Deadly tropical cyclone Nargis, which occurred over the Bay of Bengal, hit
five divisions and states -- Ayeyawaddy, Yangon, Bago, Mon and Kayin on
last May 2 and 3, of which Ayeyawaddy and Yangon inflicted the heaviest
casualties and massive infrastructural damage.

Myanmar estimated the damages and losses caused by the storm at10.67
billion U.S. dollars with 5.5 million people affected.

The storm has killed 84,537 people, leaving 53,836 missing and 19,359
injured according to the latest official death toll.

____________________________________
ASEAN

July 14, Irrawaddy
More relief effort needed: Asean Secretary-General – Lalit K Jha

While praising the cooperation of the Burmese junta in allowing the
international community to carry out relief work in the Irrawaddy delta,
Asean Secretary-General Dr Surin Pitsuwan said now is time to speed up the
humanitarian relief effort.

"I think more coordination and more support for the NGOs and the
international organizations to even expand their activities would be
helpful," Pitsuwan told The Irrawaddy in an interview.

Pitsuwan visited the United Nations headquarters in New York last week for
one day to attend the UN's revised second fundraising appeal on Burma. He
also addressed a joint press conference with John Holms, the under
secretary-general of humanitarian affairs.

Preparing for the Asean foreign minister's meeting in Singapore on Burma's
humanitarian crisis, Pitsuwan said he was satisfied with the progress of
the relief effort and praised the Burmese military government.

"So far we are quite satisfied with the fact that relief supplies have
been distributed rather fully," he said.

At the same time, he said: "Some [relief work] would have to be repeated
and that is what we are working on. Part of the revised appeal is to
sustain the humanitarian assistance that has been going on."

Asked what steps he would expect from the Burmese government to accelerate
the relief work, Pitsuwan said: "I think more coordination and more
support for the NGOs and the international organizations to even expand
their activities. That would be helpful."

"I would say right now, we certainly would like to maintain that
humanitarian space and deepen it and expand on it so that we can continue
to help, because they do need help," he said.

Comparing it to the post-tsunami relief effort in Indonesia, Pitsuwan said
getting aid to Burma will be a long-term process.

He said Asean foreign ministers meeting in Singapore will have to decide
in what form and for how long Asean will remain engaged. "This is a very,
very important undertaking for us," he said.

Referring to the cooperation between the UN and Asean, Pitsuwan said it is
a model for cooperation between the world body and regional organizations.

Meanwhile, a top UN official in Burma said the biggest challenge in the
cyclone-devastated area is how to keep the relief work moving forward.

"We moved pass the immediate relief, but we still have a lot of
humanitarian relief work to do in the future. That is the big issue, how
do we keep it going," Daniel B Baker, a UN Population Fund (UNFPA)
representative told The Irrawaddy.

"This is the biggest challenge," said Baker, who is the highest ranking UN
official stationed in Burma. He was at UN headquarters in New York last
week to attend the second fundraising appeal issued by the world body to
raise international donations for the relief effort.

"Today what we need to do is for all of us [UN, international community,
Asean, NGOs and the Burmese government] to keep the follow-up going," he
said.

"People have been reached with aid but the question now is—is that enough
and how long is that going to last and how do we keep insuring that the
people get the assistance they need."

Baker said UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon played a crucial role in
getting things moving in Burma in the aftermath of the devastating
cyclone.

"He went and discussed these issues directly with the senior general," he
said, and as a result, the UN now has access to the highest
decision-making level in the government.

But Baker said: "It is never enough. We have to continue asking ourselves
what more could be done? That is why we are putting out this [new
fundraising] appeal."

Baker said the presence of international medical teams working in
cooperation with Burma’s public health system helped to prevent a disease
epidemic.

____________________________________
REGIONAL

July 14, Irrawaddy
Armed Burmese uprising “likely consequence”: Chomsky – Wai Moe

Noam Chomsky, one of the most well-known political and social critics in
the world, said an armed uprising against Burma’s military regime is a
“likely consequence” for the hardships inflicted upon the Burmese people.

Chomsky, in an interview with the Bangkok Post published on Monday, said,
“An armed uprising would have to evaluate with care the likely
consequences for the people who are suffering.”

The ruling generals have “a good thing going for themselves,” he said.
They have nothing to gain by yielding power, and they appear capable of
holding on to their power, he said.

“So that’s what they’ll probably do,” he said, “until the military erodes
from within.”
Asked if a popular uprising could be successful in Burma, he said it would
be a massacre.

“Mass non-violent protests are predicated on the humanity of the
oppressor. Quite often it doesn’t work. Sometimes it does, in unexpected
ways,” he said.

A professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Chomsky said
it’s appropriate for people to rise up against a brutal government, but
it’s not for him to tell people what to do.

“As for assassinating leaders, the question is very much like asking
whether it is appropriate to kill murderers,” said Chomsky, who will turn
80 in December.

“They should be apprehended by non-violent means, if possible. If they
pull a gun and start shooting, it’s legitimate to kill them in
self-defense, if there is no lesser option.”

Chomsky said that China, the biggest supporter of the Burmese generals,
would likely tolerate the overthrow of the junta. “Maybe even welcome it,”
he said.

The choice of a non-violent uprising depends on an intimate knowledge of a
society and its various constituents, he said.

Looking back over US involvement in Burma, he recalled that as part of US
cold war policy, the Eisenhower administration supported thousands of
Chinese nationalists [Kuomintang] troops when they invaded northern Burma.

As a result, the Chinese armed and supported insurgent groups in the
region which led to a 1962 coup and the shift of power to the military, he
said.

He said the US, Britain and Israel later sold weapons and invested in oil
production in Burma to strengthen the military government.

“These matters are unreported and unknown in the US, apart from
specialists and activists,” he said, “because they interfere too
dramatically with the doctrine that ‘we are good’ and ‘they are evil,’ the
foundation of virtually every state propaganda system.”

For the full interview, see the Bangkok Post:
http://www.bangkokpost.com/140708_Outlook/14Jul2008_out47.php


____________________________________
OPINION / OTHER

July 14, Narinjara News
Burma after Nargis: Devastated, depressed and dejected – Nava Thakuria

The devastating tropical cyclone Nargis that struck southern Burma
(Myanmar) two months ago, has revealed to the world that it was even less
disastrous compared to its regime. The military regime, which not only
ignored the difficulties faced by its own people after the disaster, but
also restricted relief from international communities for them. The group
of Generals, known as the State Peace and Development Council, had one
apprehension that the massive flow of foreign aid workers to their country
might create an ambiance for a major uprising against the government.

The deadly cyclone moved towards the Burmese land from the Bay of Bengal
on the night of May 2, and it devastated the entire Irrawaddy and Rangoon
divisions of the country. Nargis also embraced three other divisions and
states (Bago, Mon and Kayin) and killed nearly ninety thousand people and
made another few thousands homeless. It also left a trail of devastation
on social infrastructures, killing thousands of livestock and also causing
flood, destroying the paddy fields, which were made ready for Myanmar's
primary crops rice.

According to the latest government information, made available with the
government run daily newspaper 'The New Light of Myanmar', the storm
killed 84,537 people, leaving 53,836 missing and 19,359 injured. The
United Nations estimates that Nargis affected 2.4 million people and
directly made thousands homeless. At the same time, over 3,00,000 water
buffaloes and cows died in Irrawaddy delta and Yangon localities.
Moreover, nearly 10,00,000 acres of farmland in Irrawaddy and 3,00,000
acres in Yangon division were destroyed. Over one million acres of fertile
land were also flooded with the salty seawater.

But the response to the disaster by its own rulers was simply shocking.
First, the rulers couldn't provide immediate relief to the victims and
secondly, they tried to prevent (and restrict) the international aid for
their very own people, who were in desperate need of food, medicine and
shelter.

"The military regime at Nay Pyi Taw always remained blind to the political
power and they can go to all extent to maintain it. Hence, they could
ignore all the troubles faced by the cyclone victims. The State Peace and
Development Council (SPDC) chief senior general, Than Shwe got time to
visit those victims only after international criticism came out in a
bigger way. Mind it, they can easily sacrifice the people, but never
tolerate international access (through the aid workers) to its common
people," commented a Yangon based opposition political leader, who wanted
anonymity.

The callousness of the junta was also criticised by Suzanne DiMaggio,
director of the Asia Society's Social Issues Programme (and former vice
president of Global Policy Programmes at the United Nations Association of
America) saying that for nearly five decades, Myanmar's military rulers
had systematically undermined the interests of their own citizens.
Referring to Narigs, she stated that the junta-controlled news media
failed to announce warnings about the approaching cyclone.

"The entry of UN humanitarian personnel, has been delayed due to the
government's refusal to allow aid workers into the country without first
applying for visas. Moreover, the military leaders are dragging their feet
on easing restrictions on the import of humanitarian supplies and allowing
a UN assessment team into the country," she added.

Similar views were expressed by a Burmese exile, Dr Tayzathuria, who
revealed that the junta did not put any effort to warn the people about
the deadly storm. Talking to this writer from London, Tayzathuria claimed
that the government had done nothing for rehabilitation of the victims and
nearly two million people, mostly farmers and their families, were still
living in horrible conditions in the makeshift camps.

"The SPDC doesn't care about its people except maintaining their strong
holds on power. Otherwise, the government would have never gone ahead with
referendum immediately after the disaster," he also added saying that the
referendum was only to forcefully approve the pro-military constitution
and finally to install a puppet civilian regime after the 2010 polls.

The referendum, which took places in two phases throughout Burma, was a
major initiative of the government under their road map to democracy. But
the new constitution adopted after the referendum is alleged to comprise
many provisions for the armed forces, which would enjoy emergency power
and could topple an elected government in need. Moreover, seats will be
reserved for them in the Parliament. The new constitution will also
prevent the pro-democracy icon Daw Aung San Suu Kyi from contesting the
election as she had married a non-Burmese (an Englishman).

Moreover, the junta had extended the period of house arrest for Suu Kyi
for one more year. The Nobel laureate had already spent five full years
under detention since May, 2003. Hence, the decision of the junta on Suu
Kyi's detention invited prompt and harsh criticism from the world
communities. From the United Nations to European Union and America to
other pro-democratic regimes, all came out with stronger words of
condemnation against the military regime.

The UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon visited Myanmar and met the SPDC
chief Than Shwe on May 23, days ahead of junta's decision (on Suu Kyi) and
he had no other option than expressing regret later on the development.
He, however, commented that 'the sooner the restrictions on Suu Kyi and
other political figures are lifted, the sooner Myanmar will be able to
move towards inclusive national reconciliation, the restoration of
democracy and full respect for human rights'.

Of course, the initiative of the UN chief resulted on softening the stand
of the junta to allow the foreign aid workers irrespective of their
nationalities. More recently, the Burmese government had issued more than
1500 visas to the relief workers to visit the victims and extend their
services.

Nargis, on the other hand, hit the country in a critical period of the
year. The month of May in English calendar year brings the season for
preparing rice seedlings, which are to be planted later. Like many south
and Southeast Asian countries, rice is the primary crop (also the staple
food) of Myanmar. The traditional rice plantation needs to be completed
within the rainy season, more preferably by July end. The harvesting time
starts from October.

Hence, the May 2-3 disaster can put a heavy toll on rice production in
Myanmar. The cyclone in one hand, flooded the arable lands with the salty
sea water, destroyed the already grown saplings and on the other hand, it
killed the water buffaloes (also cows), which are essential for the poor
Burmese cultivators for ploughing. If immediate actions are not taken to
support the farmers with tiller and fresh rice saplings, it can be guessed
that Burma might face food severe crisis at the end of the year because
the Irrawaddy delta region produces most (almost 60 per cent) of the
country's rice. Besides rice, the region also contributes in fish
productions. The cyclone damaged most of the fishing ponds, hatcheries and
shrimp farms of the area and it could add more people under the acute
poverty tag in the coming days.

Meanwhile, the UN Undersecretary-General Noeleen Heyzer issued a clarion
call for supplying fuel (to run the power tillers) for the Burmese
farmers. Heyzer had reportedly stated that this initiative was crucial for
the affected Burmese farmers 'to meet their planting season' to rebuild
their livelihood.

Earlier, the Myanmarese Agriculture minister, Htay Oo informed that they
urgently needed diesel (it might be a volume of five million litre) to run
around 5,000 power tillers. It may be mentioned that understanding the
real and immediate difficulties of the rice growers, many countries
including China and Thailand donated the power tillers to the farmers.

____________________________________

July 14, Irrawaddy
The 2010 election challenges – Min Zin

Burma's conflict is moving into a new phase of intractability. In other
words, the conflict will become institutionalized in 2010.

The military has unilaterally set the rules of the new game with the
ratification of its constitution and is preparing to hold elections in
2010 as part of its seven-step “roadmap.” But the new constitution will
not bring about much-needed state-building, a process in which all parties
rally together and make their voices heard.

Instead of entering into the state-building process, Burma ranked 12th out
of 177 states in order of their vulnerability to violent internal conflict
and societal deterioration in the 2008 “failed state” index, presented by
Foreign Policy magazine and the Fund for Peace. In the 2007 index Burma
was designated 14th in failed state rankings. The country is crumbling.

"I can't really see anything happening that will be positive for the
country's better future at this stage," said David Steinberg, a Burma
expert from Georgetown University in Washington, DC.

The incompatible goals of the military elites and the opposition,
including ethnic minorities, will not be transformed by the new
constitution and the 2010 election.

The opposition will continue to fight for the goal of national
reconciliation but is likely to find itself ineffective within the new
institutional procedures that favor the military's exclusive domination.
As result, the opposition will have to pursue alternative course of
actions—such as public mobilization and international advocacy.

On the other hand, since the military continues to impose its one-sided
goal of exclusive domination with the new constitution and elections it
cannot expect to minimize the cost of conflict. The most visible costs of
this approach will be the continuation of international isolation and
further damage to the country's economy.

"We do not accept the junta's unilateral solution," said Aung Din, a
former political prisoner and executive director of the US Campaign for
Burma. "Until and unless there is a negotiated political settlement, made
by the military, the National League for Democracy led by Daw Aung San Suu
Kyi, and ethnic representatives together, the US-led western sanctions
against the junta will not be lifted."

Sein Htay, a Burmese economist in exile, goes further, saying: "No matter
whether there are western economic sanctions or not, the regime's policy
failure and mismanagement will damage the prospect of development and
public welfare. The country's economy will continue to worsen after 2010."

The threat of renewed public uprisings will still be present, since the
military's intentions do not facilitate a reconciliation of interests.
More repression will result, increasing existing grievances and public
hostility towards the military.

"As the generals will use the same method of coercion against the people
even after 2010, the existing public anger that reached an unprecedented
high level during the crackdown against monk-led protests last year and
the regime's negligence of cyclone relief in May will then be compounded,"
said Win Min, a researcher in civil-military relations in Burma.
"Antagonistic civil-military relations will continue."

Apart from being unable to transform incompatible goals and relations, the
new, post-2010 regime will not change any salience of the issues that the
country has been facing and which have earned it pariah status.

According to the military's new constitution, a military chief will
independently administer military affairs, including recruitment and
expansion of troops, promotions, troop deployment, budget, military-owned
businesses, purchase and manufacture of weapons, etc.

Consequently, the issues of child soldiers, forced relocations, forced
labor, landmines, internal displaced person, the flow of refugees to
neighboring countries, rape and other rights violations—all of which are
associated with the military's unchecked interests and behavior— will
continue unresolved, especially in ethnic areas such as the eastern areas
of Burma.

Since the elected parliament’s legislative power will be restricted and
because it will not be able to oversee the military, no civilian
mechanisms will be available to redress the military’s excesses. Military
personnel accused of crimes will be tried by a court-martial appointed by
the head of the armed forces, the Tatmadaw—effectively allowing the
military to continue its violations with impunity.

The 2010 elections could, however, contribute to leadership changes, at
least on a nominal level during the initial stage. Two power centers will
be created—military and government. Aside from the 25 percent of
parliamentary seats reserved for the military and its power to appoint the
three most important cabinet ministers (Defense, Home and Border Area
Affairs) in the Cabinet, the generals are determined to fill the remaining
government portfolios and parliamentary seats with members of its own
civilian thuggish movement, the Union Solidarity and Development
Association (USDA).

The election is sure to be marked by vote rigging, intimidation and
bullying attacks orchestrated by the USDA and its affiliates against
opposing candidates. Given the record of USDA violence against Suu Kyi's
entourage in 2003 and opposition activists in subsequent years, the world
will witness an election model of goon-squad democracy—comparable to the
travesty of recent elections in Zimbabwe.

The new post-election power arrangement will nonetheless create conflict
between two power centers over the command structure and personal
interests. Even now, various reports confirm that there is serious
animosity and tension between military personnel and USDA members
regarding the latter's interference with the military's administrative
mandate and other issues of self-interest.

Given the military's lack of experience of sharing power, it will be
harder for the generals to accept being outshone by the USDA.

"Many officers in the military hate the USDA and believe it will go down
when Than Shwe goes," said a source close to the military establishment.

The government's operation with two centers of power—no matter who pull
the strings—could lead to either a serious internal split or miserable
inefficiency of the ruling body.

Some advocates expect it will take an evolutionary shift toward
liberalization. They believe the military's constitution, although flawed,
can give reform options to a new generation of military officers. They
suggest "using the generals’ flawed model of democracy as a starting point
from which to pursue a more acceptable long-term solution."

However, the nature of the power rivalry within a post-2010 regime will
not necessarily lead to a new opening and democratization in the long run.
Even if it does so, the question is: how long is the long run? It may be
too long to have any strategic relevancy for the opposition movement,
within the country as well as abroad.

In fact, political transition is not likely to take place within the
framework of a military-imposed constitution. Even amendments made to the
constitution in the hope of gradual reform will not be possible within
military-dominated parliamentary debate and a new power arrangement. It
could happen only if the status-quo is challenged by public pressure and a
negotiated settlement is reached with the military. Otherwise, the
post-2010 prospect remains bleak.

The UN-led international community, therefore, must double its efforts to
push for an inclusive political resolution in Burma before 2010, mediating
for meaningful political dialogue among all key stake holders by using
coercive diplomacy, rather than pleading to the regime to conduct
elections that are just "credible and inclusive".

The international community must be fully aware that the result of the
election will be in accordance with the military's constitution.
Otherwise, it will make the same major mistake committed by EU leaders at
their July 19 summit in Brussels when they called on the military junta
"to ensure that the elections announced for 2010 will be prepared and
conducted in a way that contributes to a credible and fully participative
transition to democracy." Without considering contextual and consequential
dangers, the EU leaders just pushed for the 2010 election and perhaps felt
they were serving the cause of Burmese democracy. Moral misery and
strategic blunder!

UN envoy Ibrahim Gambari, who is planning to return to Burma soon, should
be especially cautioned not to lend legitimacy to the regime's
constitution and elections in 2010. The UN, which once supported the
junta's seven-step “roadmap” as a potential for an inclusive transition,
must now say clearly that the map is no longer relevant since it has
failed to incorporate key stakeholders.

In brief, the UN-led international community should not give up its
attempt to enforce an inclusive political resolution in Burma before 2010.