BurmaNet News, September 1-2, 2008

[Editor]

September 1-2, 2008 Issue # 3547

INSIDE BURMA
Irrawaddy: Suu Kyi continues legal battle
Irrawaddy: Gambira to snub military court
DVB: 286 activists arrested so far in 2008
DVB: Burmese blogger conference banned
Yahoo News: Exotissimo travel offers expedited visa on arrival to Myanmar

ON THE BORDER
Mizzima: ENC reiterates call for tripartite dialogue
Kangla Online: 15 Myanmar nationals released after a year in Imphal jails

BUSINESS / TRADE
Mizzima News: FEC trading sluggish
Mizzima News: Old problems to revisit new gas pipeline
IMNA: Burma crackdowns on illegal Thai fishing boats in its territory

REGIONAL
Narinjara News: Dhaka proposes direct road link between Burma and Thailand

INTERNATIONAL
Inner City Press: ASEAN diplomat predicts Gambari's replacement
Mizzima News: Burmese crisis remains static: ICG

OPINION / OTHER
DVB: Burma must stand on its own two feet - Zin Linn
Mizzima: Natural gas favours regime, not national interest - Moe Thu and
Htet Win
Irrawaddy: The UN’s dangerous detour - Kyaw Zwa Moe

____________________________________
INSIDE BURMA

September 2, Irrawaddy
Suu Kyi continues legal battle - Wai Moe

Burma’s detained democracy leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, met with her lawyer
yesterday to discuss a legal challenge to the ruling junta’s decision to
extend her house arrest earlier this year.

NLD spokesman Nyan Win told The Irrawaddy on Monday that Suu Kyi’s meeting
with her lawyer—the third since early August—concerned a lawsuit that she
is mounting against her continuing detention, which was extended in May.
She has been under house arrest since May 2003.

Nyan Win said that time constraints made it impossible for Suu Kyi and her
lawyer to finish their business.

“Her discussions with her lawyer couldn’t conclude because the meeting was
limited to just 30 minutes,” he said, adding that it was not clear when
the authorities would allow Suu Kyi and her lawyer to meet again to
discuss her case.

Political observers in Rangoon noted that this was the first time that to
keep her under house arrest. Some also said that she was in touch with
members of her Suu Kyi had attempted to use the courts to challenge the
junta’s right party and the authorities to discuss the case.

Meanwhile, a diplomatic source suggested that Suu Kyi could be released
before the end of this year. However, other sources said that Suu Kyi
would also demand the release of all political prisoners if the junta
decides to free her.

Suu Kyi’s meeting with her lawyer came amid rumors that she had begun a
hunger strike.

Her lawyer, Kyi Win, said that Suu Kyi made no mention of a hunger strike,
and in response to questions about her condition, quoted her as saying: “I
am well, but I have lost some weight. I am a little tired and I need to
rest.”

This was not the first time that Suu Kyi was rumored to be on a hunger
strike. There were reports in September 2003 that she was refusing food.
Those rumors proved to be inaccurate.

Observers suggested that the current rumors were also unlikely to be true,
since the junta wouldn’t allow her to meet with her lawyer if she were
staging a hunger strike.

Suu Kyi’s colleague, veteran journalist Ohn Kyaing, said that she takes
meditation and other Buddhist practices seriously, and may be losing
weight because she is abstaining from eating dinner for religious reasons
during the three-month Buddhist Lent.

Thakin Chun Tun, a veteran politician in Rangoon, said Suu Kyi needed to
be healthy so she could engage in a genuine dialogue with the regime to
break the ongoing crises in the country.

“Burma’s crises can only be resolved through a genuine dialogue between
Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and Snr-Gen Than Shwe, head of the ruling junta,” he
said. “I hope she will take care of her health.”

The veteran politician said that while hunger strikes were an effective
non-violent tactic during the country’s colonial period, they are less
likely to succeed today.

“The current political environment is totally different from the colonial
period,” he said.
“Burma is now ruled by the military—human life has less value now than
under British rule.”

____________________________________

September 2, Irrawaddy
Gambira to snub military court - Min Lwin

Ashin Gambira, the detained leader of the All Burma Monks’ Alliance
(ABMA), will not appear for trial on Thursday if the Burmese military
authorities do not accede to his request to be tried under Buddhist law,
his lawyers and relatives in Rangoon told The Irrawaddy on Tuesday.

“Ashin Gambira has stated that he refuses to wear handcuffs,” Aung Thein,
one of his lawyers, said. “In accordance with Buddhist law he should also
be allowed to wear his monk’s robes when he appears for trial.”

However, his requests were denied by Insein prison court on Monday, his
lawyer said.

Aung Thein told The Irrawaddy that Ashin Gambira had been charged with
nine separate criminal offenses by the military court. The alleged
offences include: State Offence Act 505 A and B, Immigration Act 13/1,
Illegal Organization Act 17/1, Electronic Act 303 A and Organization Act
6.

Ashin Gambira was one of the monks who spearheaded last year’s
pro-democracy uprising. After security forces brutally suppressed peaceful
demonstrations on September 26-27, the head monk was arrested and
subsequently disrobed by the authorities without consultating the Sangha,
the institution of the Buddhist monkhood.

“We appealed to the military court to try Ashin Gambira before a Buddhist
system of justice,” Aung Thein said. “The authorities have no right to
disrobe him or to charge him with criminal offenses.”

Ashin Gambira’s legal adviser added that the army has its own code of
military discipline, as does the national police. In turn, the law of the
Sangha should be equally recognized, he added.

“The state’s senior monks should be permitted to hear the case against
Ashin Gambira, because he is a monk,” Aung Thein said. “There is no law in
Burma forbidding persons to chant the Metta Sutta [the Buddha’s words on
loving kindness].”

The ABMA led thousands of monks and civilian protesters in street
demonstrations last year. The military authorities’ bloody crackdown left
at least 10 persons dead, although human rights groups claim up to 31
protesters may have been killed while thousands of monks and civilians
were arrested and detained.

The Thailand-based Burmese Lawyers’ Council released a statement on
Tuesday calling for the Burmese military government to immediately cease
bringing Buddhist monks before a military court.

Meanwhile, the state-run Burmese State Sangha Nayaka Committee has begun
eliciting signatures from monks at Zayawaddy monastery in Rangoon as
guarantees that they will refrain from involvement in political affairs,
according to a monk close to the monastery.

The monk said that 70 monks are studying at Zayawaddy monastery and that
most monks had already signed the pledge.

____________________________________

September 2, Democratic Voice of Burma
286 activists arrested so far in 2008

At least 39 human rights and pro-democracy activists were arrested during
August this year and 21 were given prison sentences, according to
Assistance Association for Political Prisoners.

This brings the total to at least 286 activists who have been arrested
this year, said Ko Tate Naing of the AAPP.

“At the end of 2007 when Gambari came [to Burma], the SPDC said that those
who were arrested in August-September had been released and promised that
that there would be no further arrests,” he said.

“But in 2008, the arrests haven’t stopped – at least 286 people have been
arrested so far this year. Similarly, there are many people who have been
imprisoned this year.”

Tate Naing said the majority of those detained and jailed were National
League for Democracy members, human rights activists and students or youth
activists.

Some were given summary trials, sentenced the following day and sent to
hard labour camps.

The AAPP has been disappointed by the lack of progress in human rights
issues and democratisation despite visits by United Nations special envoy
Ibrahim Gambari and the human rights rapporteur for Burma, Tomas Ojea
Quintana.

“Pro-democracy and human rights activists are still being abused and
arrested without reasons and lawlessly – that is what we want to say,”
Tate Naing said.

“If it goes on like this and they are not doing effective investigations,
if they are not using the working powers of the UN, if they continue to
treat the SPDC diplomatically, then we won’t be able to expect much from
the UN, we will have to rethink [its] intervening role.”

The NLD has also criticised the authorities for stepping up its harassment
of party members with a spate of arrests and imprisonments in recent
weeks.

____________________________________

September 2, Democratic Voice of Burma
Burmese blogger conference banned

A technical conference for Burmese bloggers due to be held on 31 August in
Rangoon was banned by the military authorities at short notice after
organisers had already advertised the event.

The conference was organised by the Myanmar Computer Experts Association
and was to be held at Rangoon’s International Business Centre, situated on
the bank of Inya Lake.

The organisers had arranged for Burmese bloggers and writers such as
Thitsani and Kyaw Win to attend the conference and deliver lectures.

A member of staff from the computer association said the government had
claimed the theme of the conference was not valid.

“We said that we were going to talk about technical development and they
insisted that [blogging] does not have much to do with technology,” he
said.

“That’s why it was cancelled – the authorities insisted that it was not
relevant.”

A blogger who was due to attend the conference said getting people
interested in blogging had the potential to make news and information
sharing more accessible.

“We planned to lecture on making the blogging world more effective and
interesting,” the blogger said.

“We did it with the intention of sharing ideas about the technical
difficulties faced by the participants,” he said.

“Some people know nothing about blogging. It is not like other media – it
is far-reaching and easily sharable.”

In 2007, a technical conference for bloggers held at the International
Business Centre was attended by more than 300 people.

The Burmese military regime has made efforts to control blogging since
last September’s Saffron Revolution, when bloggers played a key role in
getting the latest reports and images out on the demonstrations and the
government’s crackdown.

One well-known blogger, Nay Phone Latt, was arrested on 29 January and is
still being detained.

____________________________________

September 2, Yahoo News
Exotissimo travel offers expedited visa on arrival to Myanmar

An often-cited complaint about traveling to Myanmar is that the visa
application process can seem overly long and complicated. After the
protests of September 2007 and even moreso after Cyclone Nargis ravaged
the Irrawaddy Delta, global perception has been that the application
process is overly long, too thorough and a sign that Myanmar is not
welcoming to tourists. Some travelers worry that the long processing time
makes it difficult for them to use their passports for travel while
waiting for permission to travel.

Recognizing that this situation can be quite frustrating for travelers,
Exotissimo (http://www.exotissimo.com/myanmar-tours.html) Myanmar has
worked out a relationship with the Ministry of Hotel and Tourism to offer
expedited Visas On Arrival (VOA). Travellers to the "Golden Land" are able
to send their information and a scanned passport ahead to the Exotissimo
office in Myanmar as an alternative of obtaining a visa from Myanmar
Embassies abroad.

"We are very proud to be able to offer this service to our clients," says
Mrs. Su Su Tin, Managing Director of Exotissimo Travel Myanmar. " Some of
the tourists who wish to come to Myanmar are turned-off by the visa
process. Being able to offer a VOA is something that we can do that makes
it easier for people to visit our country, and certainly takes most of the
sting out of the visa application process."

Upon arrival at Yangon International airport, Exotissimo staff meet
visitors at the gate and escort them through the visa process. Guests will
need to pay the 20 USD visa fee and provide two passport pictures direct
to the airport Immigration. "Our office is very experienced and arranged
VOA efficiently without any problem. We can also obtain last minute VOA
for urgent cases" says Mrs. Su Su Tin.

Exotissimo Travel is a local tour operator based in Bangkok, but with
offices throughout Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Thailand. The
company focuses on designing custom travel holidays providing unique
travel experiences. Opened in 1993, the company is now a network of 15
locally-based offices staffing over 500 travel professionals, and sales
offices in San Francisco, Paris, Barcelona, Berlin and Melbourne. The
company's depth of experience and large infrastructure enable it to create
unique itineraries with the operational confidence to fulfill client
expectations.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/prweb/20080902/bs_prweb/prweb1269624;_ylt=A0wNcwNJ_rxIHr8Aog7NybYF

____________________________________
ON THE BORDER

September 1, Mizzima News
ENC reiterates call for tripartite dialogue  - Than Htike Oo

The Ethnic Nationalities Council (ENC) has said that a political dialogue
between Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, ethnic leaders and the military regime is
crucial for Burma.

On the conclusion of the 5th Congress of the ENC held on the Thai-Burma
border for five days starting on August 26, it reiterated its call for a
tripartite dialogue and rejected the junta's declared 2010 general
elections.

"In the current political situation, we need to resolve the political
crisis by political means so we badly need this tripartite dialogue. Under
such circumstances, we must focus on dialogue," Saw David Taw, spokesman
of ENC told Mizzima.

"The junta's constitution is undemocratic and all the powers are vested
and concentrated in the hands of the President and Commander-in-Chief. We
cannot accept this. At the same time, the would-be government under this
constitution cannot implement democratic norms and practices. So we cannot
accept the 2010 general election either," he said.

It is learnt that 55 representatives from political parties, women, youth
and other civil societies from seven ethnic States attended the congress.

The ENC statement on 'SPDC's planned 2010 general election' issued on
August 28 urged the junta to hold political tripartite talks with Daw Aung
San Suu Kyi and ethnic leaders which must lead to legal and a de jure
government of the Union of Burma.

The congress urged the 1990 election winning parties to continue their
struggle against the junta's roadmap as the 2010 general election is part
of it.

The congress also called for 'Multi-Party Talk' on the Burma issue
including involving neighbouring countries under the aegis of UN to
resolve the political, economic and social crisis in Burma by bringing the
ruling SPDC (junta) to the dialogue table.

"The opinion and stance of Burma's neigbours, India and China, are
different from the international community. The consultation and
coordination involving these neighbouring countries can bring Burma close
to a solution. UN's intervention and mediation is not encouraging. The UN
envoy could do nothing. And China and Russia always exercise their veto
rights at the UN Security Council on Burma resolutions. So we are
exploring another tangible solution by coordinating with neighbouring
countries especially China in seeking a solution which will be acceptable
to China and these neigbouring countries before putting the Burma issue
again at the UNSC," U David Taw said.

On the UN's role on the Burma issue, he said, "It is very simple, the UN
has no formidable force and no one pays respect to it. That is very clear.
So the junta won't heed whatever resolutions the UN adopts and presents to
them because China is standing firmly behind them. So we adopted this
line", he added.

The UN special envoy Mr. Ibrahim Gambari recently concluded his six-day
visit to Burma for political reforms in the country but the opposition
forces were not encouraged or pleased with this visit and criticized him
for just advocating the junta's planned 2010 general elections.

____________________________________

September 1, The Imphal Free Press via Kangla Online
15 Myanmar nationals released after a year in Imphal jails

Fifteen Myanmar nationals lodged in the Manipur Central jail and Sajiwa
jail have been released by an order of the state government and sent to
the Myanmar refugee camp at Leikul in Chandel district, an official source
said Monday.

The 15 Myanmar nationals were picked up from Pangal Basti, a Muslim colony
in the border town of Moreh in Manipur around a year back on August 17 and
brought to Imphal for interrogation.

The discovery of foreign currency in their possession led the paramilitary
forces to suspect that they had links with the terrorist group al Qaida,
but subsequent interrogations yielded no evidence of this. However, they
were put in jail under other offences.

The arrested men also claimed that they were labourers. The Assam Rifles
set to rest rumours about them being al Qaida activists by turning them
over to the police and clarifying that they were only migrant workers.

The men were charged under Section 14 of the Foreigners Act, which deals
with offences related with foreign nationals entering India without valid
documents.

They were released from jail following an order of the state home
department issued on Saturday and sent to the Myanmar refugee camp, the
official source said today.

Currently, there are 32 Myanmar nationals taking shelter at the Myanmar
refugee camp at Leikul in Chandel.

The Manipur government issued the order for release of the 15 Myanmar
nationals in compliance of the order of the Gauhati High Court, Imphal
Bench. In a ruling of the court on August 26 the Manipur government was
directed to release them.

The released Myanmar nationals are Md Nassen alias Nasim, Faizu Rahaman,
Said Aslam, Md Rehan alias Mongla, Md Abdul Hussain, Mahabu Bashar alias
Fijho, Md Abdul alias Rahul Arin, Md Bashar Ahamad, Md Junet, Sah Ahamad,
Md Salim, Md Shabbir Ahamad, Md Rohit and Abdulla. The men are aged
between 18 and 42 years.

They will remain at the Myanmar refugee camp located at Leikul till word
comes from the Union ministry of home affairs on their deportation to
Myanmar.

The men were lodged in jail after the chief judicial magistrate, Chandel
district, Brajakumar Sharma, fixed the hearing on October 5, 2007 after
examining the chargesheet framed by Moreh police. The chargesheet was
submitted to the court on September 5, 2007.

At the time of arrest Major General BK Chengappa had said that they could
not establish any link between the apprehended persons and any terrorist
organization like al Qaida but picked them up for entering and staying in
Manipur without valid documents.

The 15, all Muslims, and from Arakan province of Myanmar, spent some time
working as labourers in Imphal before shifting to Moreh.

The Assam Rifles personnel found US dollars and currencies of Thailand and
Myanmar on them. The troops also found Thailand work permits in their
possession.

The chargesheet claimed that prima facie evidence of violation of Section
14 of the Foreigners Act had been well established, and if convicted, they
could spend upto five years in jail.

Mention may be made the court fixed the hearing on October 5, 2007 after
the authorities of Sajiwa jail failed to produce the accused on two
occasions. The jail authorities could not produce them on September 7,
2007 and again on September 21, 2007, saying the jail did not have
adequate number of policemen to guard the prisoners on those dates.

The release order of the state government issued on August 30 directed the
state DGP and all concerned not to allow them to move about beyond the
refugee camp without prior written permission of the district magistrate,
Chandel and inspector general of police (intelligence), Manipur.

____________________________________
BUSINESS / TRADE

September 2, Mizzima News
FEC trading sluggish - Zar Ni

Though the 'Foreign Exchange Certificate' (FEC) price has risen to Kyat
1,160 per unit, trading in FEC is sluggish.

Foreign exchange traders and users prefer US dollar than the FEC.

The current price of FEC is Kyat 1,140 to 1,160 per unit and in USD it is
Kyat 1.254 in the grey market. Though the nature of the market is 'grey',
the trading of foreign exchange can be openly done in the grey market.

"We ourselves do not want FEC as it is difficult to resell. Most of the
buyers prefer green back (USD) than government issued FEC. Though the
price is rising, the trading of FEC is sluggish in the market," a
wholesale FE trader said.

FEC can be used only in Burma so users prefer to get international hard
currency like the USD.

"Only businessmen who use FEC are now trading in FEC in the market," he
added.

The government has started a new scheme in fuel sales by selling fuel at
the rate of four FEC per gallon since August 22. But most of the consumers
prefer to buy the fuel in Kyat, the Burmese currency.

"If we can buy fuel with Kyats, we will buy with Kyats. Why should we buy
with FEC? Where can we find this currency? We are not permitted to keep
foreign currency here," a vehicle owner from Rangoon said.

Till early last month, the price of USD was Kyat 1,215 and FEC was Kyat
850 per unit.

____________________________________

September 2, Mizzima News
Old problems to revisit new gas pipeline

The spectre of severe environmental and ecological imbalance, forced
labour and displacement of villagers, looms over Karen State and
Taninsarim Division with the construction of the third Thai-Burmese gas
pipeline to begin soon.

An engineer close to Thailand's PTTEP said construction of the new gas
pipeline is expected to begin in the coming dry season. The pipeline will
transport natural gas from the newly discovered gas project in M-9 block
in Mattaban Gulf of Burma to Thailand.

But a Rangoon-based observer said there would be hundreds of thousands of
villagers who will be displaced again and there will be massive
deforestation along with pronounced forced labour to pave the way for the
construction of the new pipeline.

"Like in similar infrastructure developments done earlier, the military
government and interested partners such as the Thai state-own PTTEP are
committing horrific human rights abuses on the population," said the
observer, who requested anonymity.

The 65-kilometre new pipeline is being built along the two existing Yadana
and Yetagun gas pipelines.

The proposed natural gas pipeline will carry 300 mmcfd, of which 240 mmcfd
will be transported to Thailand and the rest 60 mmcfd will be for domestic
consumption, according to a PTTEP announcement released during the end of
July.

The observer's concerns echoes human rights activist's claims of rampant
human rights abuses including forced labour, forced relocation and
environmental devastation on earlier pipelines sites constructed to export
gas from the Yadana and Yetagun gas fields.

The M-9 block, located about 300 kilometres south of Rangoon, is one of
Burma's latest discovery of natural gas reserves by the PTTEP in early
2007.

The company is expected to spend about US$1 billion to develop the M-9 gas
field and will begin production in 2011 or 2012 for both domestic use and
export to Thailand.

PTTEP is also the operator and sole shareholder of five potential offshore
oil and gas blocks in Burma's M3, M4, M7, M9 and M11, which are all
located in the Gulf of Mattaban.

PTTEP is currently buying about 1,000 million cubic feet of gas a day
(mmcfd) from Myanmar's Yadana and Yetagun gas field along pipelines to
Thailand.

According to data from the Ministry of National Planning and Economic
Development, Myanmar exported natural gas valued at US$ 2.56 billion in
the fiscal year 2007-2008, which ended on March 31. Gas sales were the
single largest source of foreign exchange for the military regime.

____________________________________

September 2, Independent Mon News Agenc
Burma crackdowns on illegal Thai fishing boats in its territory

The Military Coastal Region Command of Burma ( Myanmar ) is cracking down
on Thai fishing boats which are catching fish illegally in Burmese
territorial waters. At least five Thai fishing boats have been seized.

Two Wa Ran (big boat) and three Wa Lart (small boat) were seized and the
crew was arrested. The boats were taken to Mergui (Myeik) Tenasserim
division to the command base, according to a crew member of the Thai
fishing boat.

"Currently Thai boat owners are dealing with local Burmese authorities for
the release of two boats and the crew. I think the two boats will be
released," the crew member told IMNA.

About 20 people formed the crew for the big fishing boats and at least
five people worked in the small boats. Most of the crew is Burmese.

According to a source close to the Burmese military tactical commander Col
Ne Lin, Burma started the crackdown against Thai fishing boats two weeks
ago. The crackdown followed when Col Ne Lin took over as the tactical
commander in Kaw Thaung.

Many fishermen said many of the Thai boats regularly cross Burmese
territorial waters illegally where they claim more fish is available. Some
boats reach nearly Rangoon and Arakan State . On the other hand many Thai
fishing boats legally work with Burmese authorities in the southern border
town and fish in Burmese waters.

A Thai source said Thai boats that catch squid in Burmese waters would
stop fishing because the Burmese military regime has demanded payment in
US dollars.

____________________________________
REGIONAL

September 2, Narinjara News
Dhaka proposes direct road link between Burma and Thailand

Bangladesh has proposed direct road links between Burma and Thailand to
improve business ties with Southeast Asian nations. The proposal came from
Bangladesh Foreign Adviser Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury to the Burmese and
Thai foreign ministers during the Bimstec meeting in New Delhi recently.

An official report from Bangladesh stated that Foreign Adviser Iftekhar
Ahmed Chowdhury made the proposal on Friday during his meetings with
Burmese Foreign Minister U Nyan Win and Thai Foreign Minister Tej Bunnag.

The 10th Bimstec Ministerial Meeting was convened in New Delhi on August
29 with the intent of forging stronger ties and map out transportation and
trade links between countries.

Foreign ministers from Bangladesh, Burma, India, Thailand, Bhutan, Nepal,
and Sri Lanka attended the meeting.

Bangladesh has plans to build a road linking it with Burma, but it is yet
to be implemented, even though the agreement between the two countries was
made over five years ago.

Bangladesh believes that the road link will also provide access to China,
eventually building connections between Bangladesh, Burma, Thailand, and
China.

Bangladesh Foreign Adviser Ifthekhar during the meeting said, "This is
still a very preliminary stage in the thought process. Bangladesh will
benefit immensely from a road leading to the East, particularly to China
and the ASEAN bloc via Burma. There seems to be growing interest in these
countries to this idea, which is good for all of us."

____________________________________
INTERNATIONAL

August 30, Inner City Press,
ASEAN diplomat predicts Gambari's replacement

Having left Burma six days about, after not seeing either Aung San Suu Kyi
or General Than Shwe, UN envoy Ibrahim Gambari still had no comment about
what if anything his trip had accomplished, despite critical words so far
from at least two of the Security Council's five permanent members. Inner
City Press asked UN spokesperson Marie Okabe on Friday if there was any
response or explanation yet, but Ms. Okabe said "Mister Gambari wants to
speak to you directly."

Meanwhile, as Inner City Press has inquired throughout the diplomatic
community about the reasons for Aung San Suu Kyi having declined to meet
with Gambari, a Permanent Representative of an ASEAN member state, asking
to be identified as such, told Inner City Press that word is Mr. Gambari
will be replaced as UN envoy to Burma. "I don't blame Aung San Suu Kyi,"
the ASEAN diplomat said. "If I were her, I also wouldn't meet with an
envoy who's about to be replaced."

We will be watching Gambari's belated briefing of Ban Ki-moon in Turin,
and how the UN finally responds, more than a week late, to the questions
that are swirling. The problems are deeper than Gambari, going to the
bottom of this UN's commitment to human rights, and the way it let the
military government dictate UN currency losses of 20 and even 25%.

Meanwhile on August 29 Burma's Foreign Minister Nyan Win was in India for
the BIMTEC meeting with representatives of Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal, Sri
Lanka, Thailand and India. Earlier in the year, Burma's Vice Senior
General Maung Aye was in India and signed several business deals
including, for transit, the $100 million Kaladan Multi-project with Indian
leaders.

Now, Bangladesh is proposing road connections with Burma, while India
pushes for roads that pass straight through Bangladesh. Complaints have
been filed with the UN, but a former UN presence, Bangladesh's Iftekhar
Ahmed Chowdhury who is also in charge of the Chittagong Hill Tracts, tried
to calm things down by saying Bangladesh's sovereignty will always be
respected. This is the regional context and dynamic in which Burma's
military government gets over.

____________________________________

September 2, Mizzima News
Burmese crisis remains static: ICG

A leading international think tank on security and conflict reports that
the crisis in Burma remained unchanged following the events of August.

Despite the much anticipated 20th year anniversary of the 8-8-88
nationwide uprising and the much maligned visits of the United Nations
Special Envoy to Burma and Human Rights Rapporteur to the country, the
International Crisis Group (ICG) surmises that the conflict in Burma
neither significantly improved nor deteriorated during the course of the
last month.

Though seeming to credit the efforts of the United Nations representatives
in August, the monthly bulletin, released yesterday, noted that the
failure of Special Envoy Ibrahim Gambari to secure meetings with either
junta leader Senior General Than Shwe or democratic opposition leader Aung
San Suu Kyi brought into question the "efficacy of the UN effort."

ICG also balanced the scales with respect to the actions of the Indonesian
government concerning Burma during August. The update noted that Jakarta's
willingness to remove barriers to the exchange of ambassadors with
Naypyitaw was countered by the welcoming of four National League for
Democracy members to President Susilo Bambang Yudyohono's Independence Day
address in the Indonesian capital.

The last change accredited to the Burmese conflict was in May 2008, when
ICG judged the situation in Burma to have worsened as a result of "a
massive cyclone and the military government's heavily criticised
response."

In the five year history of ICG's monthly conflict assessment bulletin,
the situation in Burma has never once been estimated to have improved.

Fellow ASEAN member, Philippines, was one of twelve countries deemed to
have witnessed a worsening in conflict in August 2008, citing the primary
cause as renewed tension and fighting between forces loyal to the
government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front.

Nepal was the only country measured to have seen an improvement in its
ongoing conflict over the past 31 days.

____________________________________
OPINION / OTHER

September 2, Democratic Voice of Burma
Burma must stand on its own two feet - Zin Linn

The Burmese opposition and pro-democracy forces have lost faith in the
good offices of the United Nations after Gambari's latest futile mission
and its exploitation by the military regime.

Burma's key opposition party, the National League for Democracy, spoke out
against UN special envoy Ibrahim Gambari, stating that his mission to
Burma has failed to accomplish anything. People will not rely on the UN as
a trustworthy body if they become too accustomed to hearing nothing but
rhetoric.

On 29 August, the NLD released a statement criticising the six-day mission
of Gambari to Burma from 18 to 23 August. The party states that Gambari
has a mandate to realise the resolutions passed by the UN General Assembly
between 1994 and 2007, namely “the implementation of the 1990 election
results, the establishment of a democratic Burma, the inauguration of
meaningful political dialogue and the release of all political prisoners
including Daw Aung San Suu Kyi”. The statement also says that the recent
mission of the UN special envoy has not brought about any tangible
political improvement.

It is clear that Gambari's recent mission to resolve the political impasse
between the military junta and detained opposition leader Daw Aung San Suu
Kyi seems to be slowing to a complete standstill. His efforts to create
reconciliation talks between the junta and the opposition have fallen
apart.

Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, the key stakeholder in the Burma issue, refused to
see Gambari during his six-day trip, although he met her on his previous
visits. However, the special envoy also failed to meet the senior general
or vice-senior general of the country's ruling junta, the State Peace and
Development Council. Gambari’s total failure to accomplish anything at all
during this fourth visit now raises grave uncertainties about the future
of his mission and about the UN's arbitration efforts in Burma as a whole.

It is not clear that why Gambari, as a special envoy of the UN, did not
follow his own agenda during his fourth trip. It was shameful to see how
he danced to the SPDC's tune – meeting scores of people chosen by the
junta to converse with him – but could not persuade the regime to grant
him meetings with any of the regime’s decision makers. Senior General Than
Shwe – who hides entrenched in the new capital Naypyidaw some 400
kilometers north of Rangoon – has been using Gambari as a pawn in his
time-buying game.

Than Shwe has continued to be too pigheaded to accept the dialogue process
and refuses to meet anyone who raises the issue of reconciliation talks
with the Lady, Daw Aung San Suu Kyi. Although Gambari sought a meeting
with Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, he was unable to fulfil his mission as a result
of following the junta's schedule. Instead he met only with puppet
ministers who have no authoritative power and dishonest pro-junta agents
who have no real role in politics.

The UN envoy originally planned to meet the Lady at the State Guesthouse
in a meeting organised by the junta for 20 August, but she did not show
up. Obviously, Daw Aung San Suu Kyi did not want Mr Gambari to overplay
the impression that his mission was gradually improving. Many people also
take the Lady's refusal to meet the special envoy as a signal to the
nation not to depend too much on international intervention. It was a call
to fellow citizens to stand up in unity on their own feet.

However, the junta's mouthpiece The New Light of Myanmar exploited the
event in its coverage, claiming that the UN special envoy had voiced his
support for the junta's seven-step roadmap and urged the Burmese regime to
ensure free and fair elections in 2010.

According to some analysts, the Nobel laureate refused to see the UN envoy
before he had seen the man who calls the shots in the SPDC. She may
perhaps be of the opinion that meeting with Gambari in any other
circumstances would be futile as he would have no assurances from the
senior general of any intention to commence a reconciliation process.

Burma has been under military rule since 1962. The regime has earned the
shameful reputation of being one of the world's worst human rights
violators. It brutally suppressed pro-democracy movements in 1988, on 30
May 2003 in the Depayin conspiracy and during the Saffron Revolution in
September 2007. There have been many more intermittent crackdowns. The
junta has arrested over two thousand political dissidents including the
Nobel laureate of Burma, who has been confined to her residence for 13 of
the last 19 years. Furthermore, the junta has been intensifying its
crackdown on democracy supporters to protect its undemocratic 2010
elections.

Amid the disaster wrought by Cyclone Nargis, the regime held a referendum
at gunpoint on 10 and 24 May this year and unilaterally declared a popular
mandate for the charter which makes the military the final arbiter of the
destiny of the Burmese people. The new elections planned for 2010 will
legalise military rule. Needless to say, the processes will not be free
and fair any more than the referendum held at gunpoint.

The socio-economic situation is deteriorating fast, and the junta is not
able to cope. It will soon come face to face with a depressing future if
it continues to reject the national reconciliation process being urged by
the opposition National League for Democracy and United Nationalities
Alliance.

The NLD and the UNA both point out that the “ratification” of the
constitution staged by the junta was invalid. Both assert that it was
carried out against the will of the people and with no regard for
international norms for referendums. The junta has also ignored the
presidential statement of the UN Security Council issued on 11 October
2007.

The regime has turned a deaf ear to successive resolutions adopted by the
UN General Assembly calling for a return to democracy in Burma through a
tripartite dialogue between the junta led by Senior General Than Shwe,
democratic forces led by Aung San Suu Kyi, and representatives of ethnic
nationalities. From the turn of events so far it is clear that the junta
has no plans to heed the UN call or to release political prisoners, a
precondition to facilitate a tripartite dialogue.

Many a pro-democracy citizen in Burma no longer trusts the UN envoy or his
facilitation process. Quite a lot of Burmese democrats believe that the
Lady's latest political stance may effectively encourage Gambari to find a
way of seeing Than Shwe. It seems to be a pragmatic approach by the Lady
to show her annoyance at the protocol of the generals who had arranged a
meeting with her for the UN envoy while he was only allowed to see
non-authoritative, low-ranking members of the regime.

More to the point, the junta put on a show of Gambari's meeting with the
infamous Union Solidarity and Development Association – a bunch of
hooligans similar to Hitler's "Brown Shirts" who carried out an
assassination attempt on Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi on 30 May 2003
and during the course of that premeditated attack slaughtered scores of
NLD supporters.

The worst is that when Gambari met with NLD members, he tried to encourage
them by suggesting measures to ensure that the 2010 elections would be
free and fair. But when asked about the 1990 elections he would not give
an opinion. Furthermore, he did not even focus on resuming political
dialogue between Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and the generals.

Burmese people inside and outside the country are beginning to infer that
the United Nations and its special envoy Ibrahim Gambari are preparing to
support the 2010 elections, with or without the participation of key
political parties such as the National League for Democracy, Shan National
League for Democracy and other important ethnic parties. Such an act by
the UN would mean effectively approving the seven-step roadmap strategy of
the military regime.

Consequently, a question has been emerging for the world body: Will the UN
recognise the 2008 military-dominated constitution unilaterally approved
by the junta and its consequences?

____________________________________

September 2, Mizzima News
Natural gas favours regime, not national interest - Moe Thu and Htet Win

While Burma's economy is largely pushed forward by the sale of its natural
gas reserves, the military regime has failed to develop gas related
industries though there is potential demand for gas consumption in several
different sectors.

ႈႈႈIn the fiscal year 2007-2008, Burma earned US$ 2.56
billion, 40 percent of its total export revenue from gas.

Major natural gas finds off the Arakan off-shore in 2004 by South Korea's
Daewoo International and more recent discoveries in the Gulf of Mottama by
Thailand's PTTEP have put Burma's energy sector in the international
spotlight.

Development of Burma's oil and gas fields draws more foreign investment
than any other sector of the Burmese economy, although some economists
have voiced concerns that the rush for gas comes as other sectors fall
behind those of regional competitors.

On March 27, a report by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) said sales of
natural gas were creating growing trade surpluses and a valuable buffer
for Burma, but warned that national economic reliance on the export market
puts the country's economy at risk should global gas prices fall.

However, using the gas primarily to support domestic industries rather
than exports would be the best way to supplement long-term economic growth
– including job creation, experts said.

Areas that could benefit most from Burma's gas reserves include the
agricultural and industrial sectors, which, for instance, could use the
gas to power fertiliser or cement factories.

"If we build fertiliser plants we can produce it for our domestic use and
sell our surplus abroad," a Rangoon-based academic said, noting that such
a move was consistent with import substitution policies, inexhaustibly
pursued by the military regime with its inconsistent economic policies.

Only a third of Burma farmers use fertiliser, while the country currently
produces just 200,000 tonnes of the 1.6 million tonnes of fertiliser it
consumes annually, according to the recent data available from the Union
of Myanmar Federation of Chambers of Commerce and Industry.

The military government, which is well aware of the high demand for gas to
be used to generate electricity for a wide range of industries, including
manufacturing, however fail to utilize the gas.

Manufacturing industries, which need constant supply of energy, is the
most favourable for job-creation even compared to agriculture, which is
so-called the economic backbone of Burma, for the many young rural people
who are increasingly migrating to urban centres in search of jobs.

The lack of consistent and sufficient supply of electricity has been one
of the major set-backs to the Burmese economy and use of its natural gas
and income from its sales to set up power plants, could be an immediate
and first step to solve the electricity needs of manufacturing industries.

Gas power stations in Burma constitute 40 per cent of the total annual
generation, while hydropower contributes 50 per cent, steam turbines 9 per
cent and diesel engine one per cent, the Ministry of Electric Power No (1)
figures indicated.

Though the country has an abundance of gas reserve and enjoys sale of
natural gas, a recent Asian Development Bank (ADB) report on Burma's
economy indicated that the best use of the resources is important for the
country's long-term development.

The report said gas export, if properly utilized, will provide an
opportunity to embark on structural reforms, including exchange rate
unification, fiscal consolidation, and agricultural liberalization, and to
redirect public spending for development of social and physical
infrastructures.

"In view of the importance of agriculture and its impact on poverty,
strengthening the sector should be a key goal," the report said.

Another possible benefit from natural gas is establishing natural gas
revenue funds in the country, which will then help in developing the
economy and stabilizing of commodity prices.

"Resources like natural gas are exhaustible. It will be good if we set up
a fund with the income from gas sale for our generation and the economy,"
said a Rangoon-based economist.

Though Burma's trade volume saw an increase due to the export of natural
gas, it does not, however, imply that natural gas is a catalyst for
long-term economic development of Burma, which still has an agro-based
economy. And experts said existing gas reserves are not big enough to rely
on like the countries in Middle East and Russia.

This kind of fund will help sustainable economic development of the
country as the country can invest the money from the fund in promising
businesses and industries to acquire revenue and cope with the devaluation
of the funds due to inflation.

Setting up gas revenue funds can help stabilize commodity prices and to
keep inflation at bay. Burma, in a little over five years has witnessed
skyrocketing of commodity prices, and seen soaring inflation rates.

Setting up funds from petroleum sales has been practiced in the countries
such as Norway, Kuwait, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan with the aim of
increasing transparency and better governance, the very things the Burmese
military regime does not want.

However, some economists feel it is impossible to set up a gas revenue
fund as earning from the natural gas sale cannot match the earning from
oil sales in oil-rich countries, citing as a concrete example that Burma
has no longer oil revenue.

Putting it bluntly, it is the government, in the first place, that
continues to fail creating a 'business environment conducive to investment
growth' – regardless of economic sanctions against the country.

It is apparent that the military government has left out the role of
business or economic experts, who are crucial to pave the way for reform
measures leading to in such a business climate.

But the saddest fact is that the military leaders are happy with cronyism,
a scale which they could manage and a cause which continues fundamentally
to backpedal the country's economy.

The Generals still pursue cronyism in economic affairs even as they
continue to ignore the interest of the people by failing to take up
economic reforms.

Therefore, gas in Burma can only entrench the power of the military junta,
as long as the policy makers fail to come up with measures to best utilize
it.

____________________________________

September 2, Irrawaddy
The UN’s dangerous detour - Kyaw Zwa Moe

You know that the United Nations’ efforts to broker reconciliation talks
in Burma are failing miserably when all the visiting UN envoy wants to
talk about is the ruling junta’s “road map” to a sham democracy.

Ibrahim Gambari’s latest trip to Burma was more than a disappointment: it
was a disgrace. In the course of his nearly weeklong visit, the UN envoy
held two brief consultations with members of the National League for
Democracy (NLD) and spent the rest of his time speaking with handpicked
advocates of a political process that deliberately excludes anyone who
questions the military’s right to rule.

It should have come as no surprise, then, that detained opposition leader
Aung San Suu Kyi declined to meet with Gambari lest she further legitimize
his failed mission, which is still being carried out under a mandate that
he has evidently abandoned.

The objectives of Gambari’s mission are clear: to secure the release of
Suu Kyi and other political prisoners and to initiate a dialogue between
leaders of the regime and the democratic opposition. He has failed on both
accounts, and has now taken it upon himself to sell critics of the regime
on the idea that an election slated for 2010 could be the way forward.

The 2010 election is the fourth step in the regime’s seven-step “road map”
to a “disciplined democracy.” In his discussions with senior members of
the NLD, Gambari said that the UN would do its utmost to ensure that
polling is conducted in a “free and fair” manner.

It is difficult, however, to have much faith in the UN’s ability to
guarantee anything in Burma. After all, it had no influence whatsoever on
the regime’s decision to foist a phony   referendum on a country still
reeling from the effects of Cyclone Nargis in early May. Indeed, it
virtually had to beg to be allowed to assist victims of the deadly storm.

Strangely, the UN’s crucial role in the ongoing relief efforts in the
Irrawaddy delta appears to have given it no political leverage inside
Burma. On the contrary, the world body seems to be going out of its way to
avoid displeasing the ruling generals.

Perhaps this reflects a new humanitarian focus, one that obscures the
political quagmire underlying the country’s seemingly endless suffering.
Or maybe it is something more cynical—an attempt to take the path of least
resistance, even if it means sidelining Suu Kyi and her party.

Either way, the UN is taking a dangerous gamble on the goodwill of the
Burmese junta. And even if the regime honors any promises that it may have
made—which is extremely unlikely, given its record—it is ludicrous to buy
into its vision of a future where the military is the ultimate arbiter of
what constitutes a true democracy, particularly when its starting point is
the eradication of the democratic opposition.

The UN must realize that the “road map” is nothing more than an attempt to
return Burma to the days before the NLD’s historic electoral victory in
1990. Unless it gets back on track and starts pushing seriously for
genuine dialogue between the generals and Burma’s legitimate leaders, the
UN will be justifiably accused of sacrificing the country’s interests to
save face.

The United Nations and the rest of the international community must never
make the mistake of believing that Suu Kyi or the principles she
represents are irrelevant. Until genuine reconciliation is reached, Burma
will remain a victim of the generals’ whims—and every apparent step
forward will be followed by seven steps back.

This article appeared in the September issue of The Irrawaddy magazine.