BurmaNet News, December 4, 2008

[Editor]

December 4, 2008, Issue #3611


INSIDE BURMA
AFP: Doctor visits Myanmar's Aung San Suu Kyi
Irrawaddy: Burmese try to anticipate junta’s next election move
DVB: Kyaw Zaw urges perseverance against Burmese regime
Mizzima: Corrupt clerk yet to be punished
SHAN: Ethnic leaders dismayed by experts’ dismissal

BUSINESS / TRADE
Reuters: Thai PTTEP plans $27 million write-off for Myanmar well
DVB: Marine exports to Bangladesh halved

REGIONAL
Xinhua: Chinese, Myanmar FMs hold talks in Myanmar new capital
IMNA: Migrant factory workers from Burma hit by Thailand’s economic slowdown

INTERNATIONAL
Al Jazeera: No UN push over Myanmar prisoners
DVB: Zarganar and Nay Phone Latt win international prize
Mizzima: Obama's grandfather's connection to Burma

OPINION / OTHER
Irrawaddy: The drama of 2008 - Kyaw Zwa Moe
Women’s International Perspective: Burma must not be forgotten


____________________________________
INSIDE BURMA

December 4, Agence France Presse
Doctor visits Myanmar's Aung San Suu Kyi

A doctor visited Myanmar's detained democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi on
Thursday, witnesses said, three months after her refusal of food supplies
sparked concerns.

Her regular doctor Tin Myo Win and his assistant went into the lakeside
compound where Aung San Suu Kyi is detained in the early afternoon and
stayed about four hours, witnesses near her Yangon home told AFP.

A spokesman for her National League for Democracy party said she was
expected to receive a routine medical check-up, a month after the doctor's
last visit.

NLD spokesman Nyan Win previously said that Aung San Suu Kyi was given a
clean bill of health after the doctor's visit in October.

Tin Myo Win gave Aung San Suu Kyi an intravenous drip on September 14,
about a month after she began refusing food rations delivered to her home,
prompting her lawyer Kyi Win to describe her as "malnourished."

The NLD and Kyi Win always denied the 63-year-old was on hunger strike,
but said she was only eating small amounts of food to call for greater
human rights in Myanmar and to protest her detention.

Aung San Suu Kyi , who has no other source of food aside from the daily
supplies provided by the military regime, started accepting the food
rations again a few days after being given the drip.

The Nobel peace prize winner had been detained for most of the past two
decades. She is kept mostly isolated from the outside world, only
receiving occasional visits from her doctor and lawyer.

Nyan Win said Aung San Suu Kyi's lawyer had requested a meeting with her
to discuss an appeal against her detention.

"Lawyer U Kyi Win asked the authorities this week to meet with Daw Aung
San Suu Kyi for her legal appeal. We are hoping to meet her. But we
haven't got any reply yet," Nyan Win told AFP.

The NLD won a landslide victory in a 1990 election but the military never
allowed it to take office and instead cemented its decades-long grip on
power.

____________________________________

December 4, Irrawaddy
Burmese try to anticipate junta’s next election move - Wai Moe

As 2008 approaches its end, there is growing speculation about the
forthcoming 2010 election in Rangoon and other cities around Burma,
despite the fact that the country’s ruling junta has yet to announce any
details about when precisely it will be held.

So far, the junta has not issued any decrees relating to the election,
although some government officials and members of the military-backed mass
organization, the Union Solidarity and Development Association (USDA),
have suggested that an election law could be promulgated by the end of
this year or early next year.

In a speech delivered at the closing ceremony of the USDA’s 15th annual
meeting, held last week, Snr-Gen Than Shwe, chairman of the ruling State
Peace and Development Council (SPDC), expressed confidence that the
election would go according to plan, but offered no specifics.

“The most crucial step for democratic transition has been implemented
successfully due largely to the public support,” Than Shwe said, referring
to a referendum held in May on a constitution that the regime took 14
years to draft.

He added that “plans are well under way to see to the remaining steps,
including the 2010 transition work program.”

According to political observers in Rangoon who spoke to The Irrawaddy
recently, however, the junta is in no hurry to set a date for the upcoming
election, which would be officially announced in a decree signed by Than
Shwe.

“I heard from authorities that the election law will be announced next
June,” said Ohn Maung, a veteran politician in Rangoon.

Political analysts based in Burma and abroad said they thought the junta
would surprise people by announcing the election law and timetable at an
unexpected time. They added that the campaign period would likely be much
shorter than in 1990, when the military-backed party lost by a landslide.

One Burmese scholar suggested that the junta might follow the example of
Singapore, where political parties get just three weeks to campaign for
elections. In 1990, the campaign period was 90 days, and the timetable of
the election was announced more than a year before it was held.

Analysts said that the SPDC would also take other steps to ensure that the
outcome of the 1990 election is not repeated in 2010, including a
requirement that parties participating in the election must contest at
least half of the electoral seats. In 1990, any party that could field
candidates for three electoral seats was entitled to run.

Even though the election law and date have not yet been officially
announced, the authorities and USDA leaders are already preparing for the
election, sources in Burma said.

Meanwhile, the regime is pushing to complete preparations for voter
registration. On Thursday, the state-run New Light of Myanmar reported
that Maj-Gen Saw Lwin, the minister for immigration and population, urged
officials “to make efforts for timely completion of work for issuing
Citizenship Scrutiny Cards.”

The SPDC is also taking measures to ensure that it has enough money to
cover the cost of a carefully orchestrated election.

According to a source close to the USDA, Minister of Industry (1) Aung
Thaung, who is in charge of the USDA in Mandalay Division, recently held
an auction of government-seized cars in Mandalay to raise funds for the
election.

The junta has also recently called for the privatization of more than 30
state enterprises. Observers in Rangoon said that the privatization call
could be part of the junta’s fund-raising for the election.

“Top ruling generals are looking for alternative sources of election
funding, because they don’t want to touch government reserves at a time
when the global financial meltdown is weakening the domestic economy,”
said a researcher in Rangoon.

Observers said that, unlike in 1990, the junta would not back a particular
party in the forthcoming election, but would instead rely on the USDA,
which was formed by Than Shwe in 1993, to deliver a more favorable
outcome.

Meanwhile, Burma’s opposition groups are also trying to prepare for the
2010 election.
The National League for Democracy (NLD), the victor in 1990, has been
holding regular executive meetings to discuss the 2010 election. The party
has also been meeting with ethnic parties to trade perspective on the
election.

Khin Maung Swe, an NLD executive member, said the party has not yet
declared whether it will participate in the election, adding that the
decision would depend on the circumstances.

In a statement released on September 22, the party called for changes to
the junta-backed constitution within six months. Burma’s police chief,
Brig-Gen Khin Yee, reportedly called on the NLD to withdraw the statement,
but the party refused.

____________________________________

December 4, Democratic Voice of Burma
Kyaw Zaw urges perseverance against Burmese regime - Aye Nai

General Kyaw Zaw, a veteran politician and one of the Thirty Comrades, has
urged the people of Burma to keep on fighting against the military
dictatorship and not to give in to pressure from the regime.

Kyaw Zaw, speaking on the occasion of his 89th birthday yesterday, called
for unity and perseverance.

"I am 89 years old today, I am now a geriatric, as [Burmese revolutionary
icon] Sayagyi Thakhin Ko Daw Hmine often described himself,” Kyaw Zaw
said.

“I am so proud and delighted to see our people are still fighting
relentlessly against the military dictatorship through over the
generations with no fear in the face of the various pressures from the
government," he said.

"I would like to urge everyone to keep on fighting and not to give up," he
continued.

"I ask everyone to stand together in unity and show understanding towards
each other; also I would like to urge the SPDC and all the troops in the
military to show respect to the people as their mentors and not to treat
them like their enemies."

Kyaw Zaw, along with Ye Htut, is one of the two surviving members of the
Thirty Comrades, who travelled to Japan in 1941 for military training,
founded the Burmese Independence Army and returned to Burma to fight
against British colonial rule.

He was dismissed from the army in 1957 after being accused of leaking
information on the army’s movements to the Communist Party of Burma, of
which he was a senior member.

He went on to stand for parliament in 1960 but was unsuccessful.

Since going in to exile, Kyaw Zaw has called for dialogue between the
military regime and the National League for Democracy and urged the people
of Burma to continue their struggle against the junta.

Kyaw Zaw now lives in exile in China.

____________________________________

December 4, Mizzima
Corrupt clerk yet to be punished - Solomon

A local township clerk, caught selling relief materials donated for
victims of Cyclone Nargis in Irrawaddy division has been removed from
office but sources said no action has been taken against him so far.

Kyaw Soe, a clerk of the Pyapon Township Peace and Development Council in
Irrawaddy division, was reportedly caught selling about 1000 rice bags of
aid donated by the Saudi Arabian government in Rangoon earlier in
November.

"He has been suspended from his job but we don't know what punishment is
in store for him if at all," an official at the Pyapon Township PDC office
told Mizzima. He added that so far the accused has not been prosecuted nor
tried in any court.

"All investigations were done by the Bureau of Special Investigations
(BSI) so they will report to higher authorities in the divisional office
for further action," he added.

Kyaw Soe, who was caught selling the rice bags for over 10,000 kyat each,
was arrested by the BSI in Pyapon town the official said. He added that
since the BSI had arrested him, if any charges are pressed against him it
will be by the BSI.

A BSI official in Pyapon town, when contacted by Mizzima, said the clerk
has not been arrested. But he declined to comment further saying he was
not authorized to speak to the press.

"We are not authorized to talk about this. He [Kyaw Soe] is at home, he is
not here," said the BSI official.

Meanwhile a local rice merchant in Pyapon, said he had known that the
clerk, prior to his arrest, had been selling aid materials for personal
gain.

"This is not the first time he has done this. He has done this sort of
thing earlier many times but evaded arrest," the merchant said.

The merchant added that Kyaw Soe had earlier sold about 900 bags of rice
at 18,000 kyat per bag. And he has been bailed out by his family members
from the custody of the BSI.

The merchant said, earlier the head of Pyapon Township PDC, Myo Myint Zaw,
was also suspended from office for illegally selling 6000 to 7000 bags of
chemical fertilizers but the case was not proceeded with and the accused
till today has not been punished.

"We know there is a lot of corruption relating to aid supplies but we dare
not reveal it, because the authorities are involved," said the rice
merchant.

In the aftermath of Cyclone Nargis, the Saudi Arabian government had
donated at least 370 tons of relief supplies including tents, foodstuffs,
blankets, medicines, ambulances, rescue equipments, electric generators,
according to information released by the Royal Embassy of Saudi Arabia
(RESA) in Washington D.C.

Cyclone Nargis struck Burma on May 2-3, leaving over 2.4 million
devastated and more than 130,000 killed or missing.

____________________________________

December 4, Shan Herald Agency for News
Ethnic leaders dismayed by experts’ dismissal

Ethnic ceasefire leaders say they are disappointed with “blanket
rejection” by Burma experts about the ruling military leaders’ nuclear
aims.

“Maybe we don’t know what to look for,” admitted a Shan ceasefire officer
to SHAN. “But our reports about the generals’ ambition to possess nuclear
bombs were nothing less than the truth.”

He pointed out to earlier reports about the junta’s planned move to
Naypyitaw a year before its official announcement to transfer the capital
there in late 2005. “Nobody believed us then,” he recalled. “But then it
came like a bombshell. The next time it’s going to be a nuclear one, if
they choose to keep ignoring our reports.”

One of his arguments is the junta leaders’ rejection of the ceasefire
groups’ recommendation, during the 2004-07 Constitutional Convention, that
the nuclear programme be placed under the Energy Sector instead of the
Defense Sector in the draft charter. “We explained that putting it under
the defense sector would be contrary to our long-standing claim that we
wanted to develop nuclear power for peaceful purposes,” he said. “But the
generals merely shrugged it off.”

“Isn’t it enough evidence of what they are aiming for?” he asked
rhetorically.

Under the Union Defense and Security Sector (P.181) in the newly approved
Burma’s constitution is (d) Atomic energy, nuclear fuel and radiation and
mineral resources essential to its production, whereas its Energy,
Electricity, Mining and Forestry Sector (P.183) says nothing about it.

The nuclear programme, according to sources, is being headed by Lt-Col
(ret) U Thaung, Minister of Science and Technology, who has his office at
Maha Myaing camp, Thabeikkyin township, north of Mandalay. “About 20
foreigners are often seen there,” said a trader, a long-time SHAN source.

“Please ask the experts to tell us what they need to know (to confirm the
existence of the nuclear programme) instead of brushing our reports
aside,” he concluded. “And we will get it for them.”

____________________________________
BUSINESS / TRADE

December 4, Reuters
Thai PTTEP plans $27 million write-off for Myanmar well

Thailand's PTT Exploration and Production PCL said on Thursday it would
write off 975 million baht ($27 million) in the fourth quarter for a dry
well in Myanmar's offshore M7 block.

Its PTTEP International Ltd subsidiary said in a statement it had not
found enough natural gas in its Janaka-1 exploration well in Myanmar's
offshore M7 block to operate commercially.

PTTEP International Ltd is the operator and sole stakeholder of
exploration block M7 in the Gulf of Mataban.

____________________________________

December 4, Democratic Voice of Burma
Marine exports to Bangladesh halved - Shwe Aung

Despite claims by ministers that the global economic crisis would not
affect Burma, exports of marine products have halved recently and prices
have also come down.

Burmese prime minister Thein Sein told a meeting of ministers, government
officials and business leaders on Monday that the impact of the
international financial crisis on Burma was negligible.

But according to a news journal published inside the country, exports of
marine products have halved and prices have fallen.

A Burmese merchant based on the Burma-Bangladesh border confirmed the report.

"The Arakan fishing companies based here have stopped operating,” he said.

“The main problem is competition over prices."

Burma had been exporting many types of fresh-water and sea fish and prawns
to Bangladesh and neighbouring countries, amounting to US$ 17 million in
revenues so far this year.

But currently only prawns and lobster are being exported, the merchant said.

Retired economics professor Maw Than said the fall in trade in Burma was
the result of the global financial crisis.

"It is connected to the global recession,” Maw Than said.

“Exports from Burma are affected by the economical decline throughout the
world, which also affects the prices."

Maw Than said the drop in prices and exports could mean that prawns and
lobsters, long absent from the domestic market, would now be available to
consumers inside Burma.

____________________________________
REGIONAL

December 4, Xinhua
Chinese, Myanmar FMs hold talks in Myanmar new capital

Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi and his Myanmar counterpart U Nyan
Win held talks in Myanmar's new capital of Nay Pyi Taw Thursday.

Yang said the development trend of China-Myanmar relations is currently
good with the two countries keeping in touch at high level and
continuously making progress in the cooperation in all sectors.

Yang expressed China's thanks to Myanmar for its support rendered to China
in the quake relief efforts and Beijing Olympic Games.

He stressed that the Chinese government highly appreciated the relations
with Myanmar and will adopt the policy of having good relations and
partnership with neighboring countries in continuously pushing ahead the
China-Myanmar good neighborly ties on the basis of the Five Principles of
Peaceful Coexistence.

At the meeting, U Nyan Win said the frequent exchange of visits at high
level has strongly enhanced the development of the bilateral ties.

He expressed Myanmar's thanks to China for its prompt assistance provided
for the cyclone relief of Myanmar.

He maintained that Myanmar has as always abide by the one-China policy and
will continue to firmly support China on the issue of Taiwan and that
dealing with Tibet.

The two sides unanimously agreed that the foreign ministries of the two
countries will keep frequent access and consultation and timely exchange
views on bilateral ties and issues of common concern.

The two sides will, in the sector of economic and trade cooperation,
actively push the cooperation projects already coordinated and expand the
new form of cooperation and new areas as well as raise the level of
cooperation.

The two sides also agreed that the Chinese side will support Myanmar's
post-storm reconstruction work, closely coordinate and further implement
the aid projects extended by the Chinese side and enhance cooperation in
joint combat of cross-border offenses such as drug trafficking.

U Nyan Win also briefed Myanmar's domestic political and economic
situation, saying that the Myanmar government would continue its efforts
in pushing the democratic process and economic development.

Yang expressed China's sincere hope and support Myanmar's political
stability, national reconciliation, economic development and social
harmony, assuring to render assistance for Myanmar's national construction
as much as possible.

The Chinese foreign minister arrived Nay Pyi Taw earlier on Thursday on a
two-day visit to Myanmar.

____________________________________

December 4, Independent Mon News Agency
Migrant factory workers from Burma hit by Thailand’s economic slowdown -
Blai Mon

Migrant factory workers from Burma are feeling the effects of Thailand’s
economic slowdown, say laid off workers as well as members of exile media
and advocacy groups.

“Many workers have been laid off,” Than Zaw U, from the Migrant Karen
Labor Union, told IMNA. “It is happening in factories across Thailand.”
Lay offs have been occurring in areas around Bangkok, as well as Chiang
Mai and Mae Sot, Than Zaw U added, although he was unsure of exact
numbers.

The number of those laid off can be expected to be large, however;
Thailand is home to at least 2 million migrant workers from Burma, most of
whom are working in the country illegally. According to a 2005 report by
Amnesty International, Burmese make up as much as 80% of the migrant
worker population in Thailand.

In the border town of Mae Sot, for instance, 3,000 workers lost their jobs
during November, the Joint Action Committee for Burmese Affairs told the
Irrawaddy recently. Workers elsewhere have also been experience
difficulties, said the Irrawaddy in the same article, with workers being
laid off or facing reduced hours and pay.

Many workers fired received little to no advance warning, said Than Zaw U,
who added that he had been contacted for help by both Burmese and Laos
workers from shoe and furniture factories in Mahachai, southern Thailand.
“The migrant workers said they want to get compensation from their
managers because the bosses did not give them any notice,” Than Zaw U told
IMNA. “Now they have a difficult situation – they don’t have another job
ready.”

“We can do nothing. We will just have to go find another job,” said a
woman from Paung Township, Mon State, who was recently laid off from a
fish cannery in Pattaya. About 45 other workers were also laid off on
November 30th, including her 18-year-old-daughter, said the woman.

All those fired were working illegally without visas or work permits from
the Thai government, added the woman, whose husband continues to be
employed because he has Thai identification papers. More downsizing is
expected, said another worker, from Chaung zone Township, Mon State, who
is employed in the same factory. As with the November 30th layoffs,
workers illegally in Thailand are likely to be targeted first.

Thailand’s economic situation has been steadily declining and, on December
1st, Suchart Thadathamrongvej, Thailand’s Finance Minister, said that he
expects growth to continue declining, to rates of between zero and 1.3
percent in 2009.

Thailand’s woes can be attributed to a global economic slowdown, which has
hit economies world wide, as well as a protracted domestic political
crisis. A crisis which, most recently, featured a weeklong occupation by
protesters of Bangkok’s Suvarnabhumi International Airport, crippling the
vital tourism industry before its peak season.

In an attempt to spark growth, on Wednesday Thailand’s central bank
announced the most drastic interest rate cut in the country’s history.
Whether this will boost growth – and the fortunes of Burmese workers in
Thailand – remains to be seen. “The recent political turmoil
makes the
Thai outlook even gloomier,” said a recent article by the New York based
Market Watch. “The large move by the Bank of Thailand suggests serious
concern about growth prospects for 2009.”

____________________________________
INTERNATIONAL

December 4, Al Jazeera
No UN push over Myanmar prisoners

The UN secretary-general has said he will not travel to Myanmar despite a
petition from more than 100 former world leaders to press the military
government to release all political prisoners.

Ban Ki-moon said on Wednesday that he would only consider another visit if
"a meaningful outcome" could be expected.

The written appeal by 112 former presidents and prime ministers said a
trip "would illustrate for the world whether or not the [Myanmar] military
regime is serious about making changes".

The signatories included former US presidents George Bush and Jimmy
Carter, Tony Blair, the former British prime minister, Mikhail Gorbachev,
the former Soviet leader, and Junichiro Koizumi, the former Japanese
premier.

They wanted Ban to pursue the UN Security Council's call in October 2007
for Myanmar to release the prisoners, including Aung San Suu Kyi, the
opposition leader and Nobel Peace laureate.

Michele Montas, a spokeswoman for Ban, said the UN chief "said he would
like to visit Myanmar again to discuss a broad range of issues but that he
will not be able to do so without reasonable expectations of a meaningful
outcome".

She added that Ibrahim Gambari, Ban's special envoy to Myanmar, would also
not return to the country formerly known as Burma, until he had a "real
possibility of moving forward there".

Ban travelled to Myanmar in May in the wake of Cyclone Nargis, persuading
Senior General Than Shwe, the country's leader, to ease access for foreign
aid workers and relief supplies.

On Wednesday Ban received the letter and spoke with Kjell Magne Bondevik,
the former Norwegian prime minister, who led the effort.

The letter was released by Bondevik's Oslo Centre for Peace and Human
Rights and by Freedom Now, a Washington-based advocacy group.

"We urge you to make it clear that all political prisoners in Burma must
be released by the end of this year, regardless of whether you travel to
Burma," the letter said.

Myanmar's military, which has held power since 1962, has ramped up its
crackdown on government critics since Buddhist monks led anti-government
protests in September last year.

International human rights groups say the ruling generals are holding more
than 2,100 political prisoners, a sharp increase from pre-demonstration
figures of nearly 1,200 in June 2007.

____________________________________

December 4, Democratic Voice of Burma
Zarganar and Nay Phone Latt win international prize - Sian Thomas

Reporters Without Borders has awarded one of its annual prizes to Burmese
comedian and activist Zarganar and blogger Nay Phone Latt, both of whom
are currently serving lengthy prison sentences.

Zarganar and Nay Phone Latt shared the prize in the Cyber-dissident category.

Cuban journalist Ricardo Gonzalez Alfonso was awarded the 2008 Journalist
of the Year prize, while the Radio Free NK radio station from North Korea
received the 008 Media prize.

Zarganar was arrested in September 2007 for supporting monk-led
demonstrations in Burma and was detained again in June this year after
providing assistance to victims of Cyclone Nargis.

In a statement by RSF announcing the prizewinners, Zarganar was described
as having become before his arrest “a reliable source of information in a
country strangled by censorship and repression”.

He was sentenced to 59 years’ imprisonment in November, and was
transferred to Myitkyina prison today.

Nay Phone Latt, a blogger and owner of two internet cafes in Rangoon, was
arrested in January this year.

His blog came to prominence during the Saffron Revolution in September
2007 as an important source of information on the protests.

In November this year, he was jailed for 20 years and six months for
violating the Electronic Act.

____________________________________

December 4, Mizzima
Obama's grandfather's connection to Burma

The grandfather of United States' president-elect Barack Obama served in
Burma during the Second World War, according to a report by the Times.

Hussein Onyango Obama, the paternal grandfather of Barack Obama, served as
a cook with the British army in Burma during the Second World War,
revealed yesterday's article.

The Kenyan soldier, after returning to his motherland from Burma, became 
involved in rebellion against British colonial rule and was subsequently
detained and tortured, states the December 3rd report.

In Kenya, he was involved in supplying information to the Kikuyu Central
Association, the group that spearheaded an independence movement that came
to be known as the Mau Mau rebellion. He was arrested in 1949 and detained
for two years.

The report says that during his two years' detention he was subjected to
horrific torture. Violence inflicted on Kenyan prisoners is said to have
sometimes involved such barbaric implements as "castration pliers".

Hussein Onyango Obama was born about 1895 and died in 1979.

____________________________________
OPINION / OTHER

December 4, Irrawaddy
The drama of 2008 - Kyaw Zwa Moe

Events in Burma during 2008 added up to a drama packed with mixed
emotions. They began with an appalling disaster, arousing sympathy and
anger, and ended with frustration as the year approached its end. Out of
the drama, however, lessons can be learnt for the year ahead by all those
involved, from the average Burmese citizen to national and international
leaders, by organizations of all kinds, global and local alike.

The year 2008 was scarcely four months old when immense misfortune hit
this beautiful but economically battered and politically stalled country.
Cyclone Nargis swept in from the Bay of Bengal, killing about 140,000
people and leaving some two million homeless and bereft of their
livelihoods. The world watched with horror—but this was just the first act
of the drama.

The international community responded with immediate offers of assistance,
but governments and relief agencies hadn’t reckoned with the callousness
of a suspicious regime, which at first barred aid organizations and
workers from entering the country before eventually allowing them in under
tight restrictions.

An angry but impotent world watched helplessly as the cyclone victims
struggled to survive, neglected by their own government. Australian Prime
Minister Kevin Rudd spoke for many world leaders when he said: “The
Burmese regime is behaving appallingly.”

Even when US, British and French ships loaded with thousands of tons of
relief supplies sailed to the region, the Burmese government banned them
from landing emergency aid that would have saved an unknown number of
lives. Frustration grew as helicopters sat on ships’ decks just half an
hour flight from starving communities, and some foreign government
members, led by French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner, called for the
employment of a little-known UN principle, the “responsibility to protect”
(known as “R2P”), allowing outside intervention in situations where a
national government is unable or unwilling to protect its people.

While the world dithered, cyclone victims suffered and died, and finally
the fleet of foreign relief ships withdrew and the regime was able to
report that all had returned to “normalcy.” Faced with growing
international pressure, the regime did, however, agree to allow relief
flights to land, although tight restrictions were still imposed.

Much more important for the regime than the cyclone crisis was the smooth
execution of its pet project—the national referendum on the draft
constitution that had taken a convention of hand-picked delegates 14 years
to draw up and which not even the worst natural disaster to hit the
country in living memory was allowed to delay.

A UN demand for a review of the draft constitution by a special committee,
to make sure it provided for an all-inclusive political process, was
rejected by the regime. The result of the referendum was no surprise, and
the outside world was asked to accept the absurd fiction that the draft
constitution had been approved by more than 90 percent of the electorate.

Some consoled themselves with the belief that “something is better than
nothing.” Burma has lacked a constitution for the past 20 years, after its
second post-independence charter was revoked at the time of the 1988
national uprising, and it was certainly time for a new one.

Like it or not, the people of Burma will have to live for now with this
constitution, which won’t be easy to review or amend. Its salient features
are:

• The perpetuation of a leading political role for the military, with the
commander in chief of the armed forces, currently the junta supremo
Snr-Gen Than Shwe, entitled to fill 110 seats in the 440-seat parliament
with appointees from the ranks of the armed forces. The commander in chief
will occupy a political position on the same level as that of the two vice
presidents. In the event of a “state of emergency,” which the military can
declare at any time, the commander in chief will assume full legislative,
executive and judicial powers.

• No role for opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi and limited participation
by other veteran politicians and activists. Suu Kyi’s exclusion is
determined by a clause reading:

“The President of the Union shall be a person who has been residing
continuously in the country for at least 20 years up to the time of the
election and the President of the Union himself, parents, spouse, children
and their spouses shall not owe allegiance to a foreign power, shall not
be a subject of a foreign power or citizen of a foreign country. They
shall not be persons entitled to the rights and privileges of a subject or
citizen of a foreign country.” As the widow of a British scholar and
mother of two sons who are not Burmese citizens, Suu Kyi is, therefore,
barred from any leadership role. The same applies to political exiles who
have lived outside the country since 1988.

• The inviolability of the constitution is guaranteed by its Chapter 12
which states that any amendment requires the approval of more than 75
percent of all members of parliament. Since 25 percent of the parliament
will be made up of military appointees, the constitution is as good as
cast in stone.

Under these conditions, only a massive uprising on the scale of the 1988
turmoil could lead to changes in the constitution. With the country now in
the grip of a regime determined to eliminate all opposition to its rule,
this is highly unlikely to happen.

Frustration with military rule is still very evident, however. Suu Kyi’s
unprecedented refusal to meet UN Special Envoy Ibrahim Gambari during his
last trip to Burma in August was evidence of this.

The failure of Gambari’s repeated missions to Burma should lead the UN to
do some serious soul-searching. It should at least ensure that its envoys
aren’t exploited by the regime or even negotiate with the generals without
the promise of some tangible result.

The UN’s future role in the Burma question will amount to nothing as long
as it lacks the capability to convince all key players to play their roles
effectively. That means the Burmese government and opposition groups,
regional players such as China, India and the Association of Southeast
Asian Nations (Asean) and—on the wider international stage—the US, EU and
the UN Security Council (UNSC). It won’t be an easy task. But nothing is
impossible.

World politics have had a big impact on the Burma issue.

The UNSC issued its first presidential statement on Burma in October 2007
in an attempt to pressure the Burmese generals to enter a dialogue with
the opposition.

In May this year, the UNSC issued another presidential statement, toned
down because of opposition by China and Russia to some of the wording. The
three authors of the resolution—the US, France and Britain—not only had to
water down their original draft but they also had to delete a demand for
the release of all political prisoners, including Suu Kyi. In an attempt
to persuade the 15-member council to approve the presidential statement,
the three Western powers were also forced to scrap the portion which urged
the junta to take tangible and timely steps towards a genuine dialogue.

Chinese and Russian support within the UNSC also ensured that Burma
avoided total isolation in the world community.

In October, Foreign Minister Nyan Win visited North Korea and met his
counterpart, Pak Ui Chun, in Pyongyang, a significant encounter following
the resumption of diplomatic ties ruptured in 1983 when North Korean
agents plotted to assassinate the then South Korean president in Rangoon.

The world’s divided approach to Burma has emboldened the regime to resist
international demands for political change and to challenge the Western
powers, including the US. The question is how much those powers are
interested in getting directly involved in the issue.

In November, outgoing US President George W Bush appointed Michael J Green
as the special representative and policy coordinator for Burma with rank
of ambassador. Since the junta’s brutal crackdown against the uprising in
1988, the US has lowered its official representation in Rangoon to the
rank of chargé d’affaires.

Although the US is the world’s staunchest supporter of Burma’s
pro-democracy movement and the strongest critic of the regime, the Burmese
people realize that world politics don’t favor drastic US action against
their country’s leaders. But, like a drowning man clutching at a straw,
most Burmese still hope for a real change-oriented policy by the
international the community led by the US.

They ask whether the “change” promised by US President-elect Barack Obama
means anything for the Burmese people. Will a “changed” foreign policy
mean more than remaining a staunch supporter of the pro-democracy movement
and the strongest critic of the regime?

The Burmese appreciate the US stand, but many realize that they can expect
little more. They haven’t lost all hope, however, and feel a resolution of
the political stalemate could yet come. The resolution could materialize
from a greater engagement by the US and other Western powers alongside
China, India and Asean.

Burma signed an Asean human rights charter in July, but already the regime
has blatantly breached it by hauling more than 150 activists—including
monks, journalists, lawyers and volunteer relief workers—before kangaroo
courts, which have been handing out sentences of unbelievable severity—up
to 65 years imprisonment for leaders of the 88 Students Generation group.

Asean’s political culture and deeply-rooted non-interference policy
appeared to combine to allow these monstrous acts by a member state.

Despite Asean’s stand on non-interference, differences between East and
West or between governments which advocate sanctions and those which favor
engagement must be bridged.

The differences can only serve to maintain Burma’s status quo, and nobody
benefits except the country’s rulers.

The US, other Western nations, the EU, China, India and Asean must take a
united approach, based on one common strategy, including the appointment
of an ambassador to Burma possessing a powerful mandate from the whole
international community.

The aim will not be to remove the regime, but to get it to work together
with all opposition parties, ethnic groups and the international community
in a combined effort to break the deadlock.

Burma’s opposition groups are not talking about regime change. They are
calling for reconciliation. Pragmatists recognize that the role of the
military will have to be accepted in the future political structure of the
country—although it will have to be different from what is envisaged in
the constitution.

History has shown that Burma’s military leaders possess no will for
reconciliation or collaboration with the outside world. Rewards and
punishment will have to be employed to bring them to their senses.

There must be a will for national reconciliation, the relief of the
economic and political suffering inflicting the Burmese people and the
release of all political prisoners.

The achievement of this dream belongs in the hands of a new united front
of all domestic and international parties. With a combined policy of a
united world, this mission can be accomplished. It will be much more than
just difficult—but nothing is impossible.

Burma’s drama has by no means ended, and it’s still uncertain whether its
finale will be tragic or happy.

____________________________________

December 4, Women’s International Perspective
Burma must not be forgotten

In a country that has been ruled by the military junta since 1962, where
its ethnic women are raped with impunity by military soldiers, and where
less than 3% of the national budget is spent on healthcare, Burma must not
be forgotten by the international community.

Half of Burma’s 54 million people are women. The ignorant and failed
policies of Burma’s military regime have caused women and children to
endure extreme suffering. UNIFEM reports a high rate of maternal mortality
(approximately 517 per 100,000 live births), and their children suffer
from an extremely high rate of moderate malnutrition and preventable
diseases. A UNICEF study reveals that out of the 1.3 million children born
every year in Burma, more than 92,500 will die before they reach their
first birthday and another 138,000 will die before the age of 5.

The situation is even more dire in Burma’s conflict zones, where official
investment in health, especially reproductive health, is essentially
non-existent. Abuses against the predominantly non-Burman population are
rife, including the brutal and systematic rape of women and girls.

In these conflict zones, as many as 1 in 12 women will die as a result of
pregnancy-related causes, a number far worse than Burma’s national figure
of 1 in 75 - already the worst in the region. These deaths are mainly
preventable, the result of postpartum hemorrhage, unsafe abortion, and
obstructed delivery. Further, high fertility rates, reflecting lack of
access to reproductive technologies, as well as the high prevalence of
conditions such as malnutrition and anemia, increase the risk of
unnecessary death from pregnancy. In eastern Burma, only 4% of births are
attended by skilled birth attendants, far lower than the official figure
of 57% for the rest of the country.

Though international NGOs have published reproductive health education
materials in Burmese, they are usually not provided in ethnic languages as
the regime fails to promote the rights of ethnic/indigenous people. The
lack of health care, educational facilities, economic mismanagement, and
ongoing severe human rights abuses drive many people out of the country.
Burma’s problems are a threat to the region’s security and stability. So
far, the regional governments have ignored the reality of Burma.

For the women who have suffered greatly, I hope that the Obama
administration will bring Burma’s crises to the UN Security Council as a
main concern and continue to support an economic sanction policy. It is
the only way to ensure that agencies like the UNFPA and others will be
able to provide the much needed services and hope to the Burmese people.