BurmaNet News, March 4, 2009

[Editor]

March 4, 2009, Issue #3664


INSIDE BURMA
Mizzima News: Burmese Junta tentatively schedules elections for March 2010
DVB: Imprisoned students’ leader in declining health
Irrawaddy: USDA going to press?
Narinjara: Retired Arakanese officers summoned to Naypyidaw for 2010 polls
IMNA: Burmese army forces farmers to “donate” paddy in Lamine Township

ON THE BORDER
Kachin News Group: Camps for 15,000 Chinese labourers at Irrawaddy River
hydropower project
Irrawaddy: Burmese migrants come under stricter control

BUSINESS / TRADE
Xinhua: Myanmar official media call for boosting regional economic co-op
Xinhua: Myanmar to auction some state-owned business undertakings in Yangon

ASEAN
AP: Myanmar must treat Muslim migrants better

INTERNATIONAL
BBC News: City honours democracy campaigner

OPINION / OTHER
Foreign Policy in Focus: Dealing with Burma through China? – Kanbawza Win




____________________________________
INSIDE BURMA

March 4, Mizzima News
Burmese Junta tentatively schedules elections for March 2010 – Mungpi

Burma’s ruling military junta has tentatively scheduled its general
elections in March 2010, a source close to the military establishment in
Naypyitaw said.

Although the ruling junta has not made any announcement regarding the
timing and the election law that would allow the formation of political
parties, the source said, the top-ranking Generals in Naypyitaw have
tentatively planned to hold the polls in March.

This information, however, cannot be independently verified, but a
military analyst, Aung Kyaw Zaw, based near the Sino-Burmese border, said
the junta was likely to hold the elections in the first quarter of 2010.

“As far as I understand, the junta wants to hold the elections in the
first quarter of 2010, and there is a likelihood that they will discuss it
in the upcoming quarterly meeting,” Aung Kyaw Zaw said.

Sources said, Burma’s military leaders were gearing up for the first
quarterly meeting and had ordered all its military commanders to be
present latest by March 6.

Aung Kyaw Zaw said, during the meeting the Generals were likely to
discuss, apart from the normal topics, three major points – elections and
election law, reshuffling of the positions among the military and how to
go about the ceasefire with ethnic armed groups.

He said it was likely that the two groups of military leaders – those who
want the election law to be announced soon and those who want to postpone
it – will compromise during the meeting and come up with the announcement
latest by the first week of April.

The second topic would be about choosing whom to appoint to head certain
ministries and whom to retire in order to be a candidate for the election,
he said.

And regarding the third, the military leaders were likely to discuss on
how to handle the ceasefire ethnic groups, he added.

“One thing is for sure, the junta does not dare to pressurize the ethnic
armed groups to the point of breaking their ceasefire agreement, as it
will have severe repercussions,” Aung Kyaw Zaw said.

However, he added, the junta, at times, plays around with the media and
deliberately delays or pre-pones their schedules to get back at the media.

“Though the junta clearly has plans, they can sometimes change their
schedules just to confuse the media,” he added.
____________________________________

March 4, Democratic Voice of Burma
Imprisoned students’ leader in declining health – Naw Say Phaw

The sister of 88 generation students' leader, Min Ko Naing, who is
currently imprisoned in Kengtung jail in eastern Burma, has said he has
been suffering from poor health due to lack of exercise.

"I am mainly concerned that he might have a stroke due to the high blood
pressure,” Kyi Kyi Nyunt said.

She said he has been suffering from immobility in his hands and high blood
pressure.

“I left with him some medicines. It would better if there is a regular
doctor at the prison.”

Kyi Kyin Nyunt was allowed only 20 minutes to talk with her brother,
having travelled hundreds of miles from Rangoon to reach Kengtung in
eastern Burma.

She also said the prison authorities also revoked a permission previously
granted to him to receive books and magazines from the outside.

“We previously made a deal with a local bookshop to send him books and
magazines regularly but lately the prison authorities have laid probation
on that too.”

"If possible I want the authorities to allow family members coming from
afar, at least for two days – forty minutes for each time,” she said.

“The time was up before we could tell each other about ourselves."

Meanwhile, the wife of Mandalay NLD member Shwe Maung, who is currently
imprisoned in Pyapon jail, says that he has been suffering gastric
diseases.

"I gave him some medicines, but we are living in constant fear for his
health,” Than Than Win said. “When he was in Insein jail, I was able to
see him once a month. Now I can't even do it one in two months."

During her last trip, she had to travel to Pyapon with her 18-month old
daughter by bus and boat, she added.

"I lost the food basket I brought for him. We vomited all the way. We are
in big trouble for sending him to somewhere faraway."

Htay Htay Win, the mother of All Burma Federation Students Unions’ member,
De Nyein Lin, also said she finds it hard to see her son at Khamdee jail
in the northern tip of Burma once every two months due to financial
difficulties.

____________________________________

March 4, Irrawaddy
USDA going to press? – Wai Moe

The Burmese military junta’s most loyal support group, the Union
Solidarity and Development Association (USDA), is reportedly planning to
start publishing a daily newspaper in the run-up to the 2010 Burmese
elections, according to media sources in Rangoon.

Several journalists in Rangoon confirmed to The Irrawaddy on Wednesday
that the USDA was contacting journalists and offering them work at a
forthcoming newspaper. Reporters have been told that they would be paid a
competitive salary—150,000 kyat (US $150) per month—at the new daily,
which does not yet have a name.

According to the sources, USDA leaders are looking at office space in a
building on Min Dhamma Road, near Myanmar Convention Center, in Rangoon.

Analysts say that a USDA newspaper could play a significant role in
disseminating government propaganda, particularly during the election
campaign period.

The USDA was prominent during the national referendum for a junta-backed
constitution in May 2008. Similarly, the organization is likely to be
trusted by the Naypyidaw regime again next year to convince and coerce the
electorate to vote for pro-junta parties, said the analysts.

Since late last year, the USDA has reportedly “invited” respected persons
in local communities around the country to run for pro-junta parties in
the upcoming election.

Information Minister and executive member of the USDA, Brig-Gen Kyaw Hsan,
is reputedly the mastermind of plans to crank up the military government’s
propaganda machine prior to the election. He vowed at a meeting with
journalists that he “will fight back against the media using media.”

Under Kyaw Hsan’s guidance, the Ministry of Information sponsored a
journalism training course in early February in Rangoon. The 47 Burmese
writers and journalists who attended the course were reportedly taught how
journalists should cover the 2010 elections.

A pro-junta political journal, Northern Star, was recently launched by
Thiha Aung, an ex-military officer and a former editor of the junta
mouthpiece, Myanma Alin, which is the Burmese version of The New Light of
Myanmar.

“Now, the government has already introduced the ‘seven-step roadmap to
democracy,’” Thiha Aung was quoted as saying in a Rangoon-based journal,
The Voice Weekly, in early February. “We will report that there is no
alternative way to the ‘roadmap’ and encourage people to support this most
appropriate way.”

The USDA is perhaps most notorious for the roles its members assumed in
suppressing monk-led mass demonstrations in Burma in September 2007, as
well as participating in a brutal ambush on pro-democracy leader Aung San
Suu Kyi and her convoy in Depayin, Sagaing Division, in May 2003.
____________________________________

March 4, Narinjara
Retired Arakanese officers summoned to Naypyidaw for 2010 polls

Many retired army officers who are Arakanese nationals were recently
summoned by higher authorities to Naypyidaw to discuss the 2010 elections,
said a relative of an officer.

"Many retired army officials from Arakan State have gone to Naypyidaw
after they received invitation letters from senior military authorities to
discuss the 2010 elections," he said.

The regime reportedly has plans to make some of the retired Arakanese
officials participate in the ensuing election as individual candidates.

"Two retired Arakanese army officials from Sittwe were selected by senior
military authorities to contest the 2010 election along with other
political parties, including the USDA and NUP," the source added.

A politician from Sittwe confirmed that the government proposes to make
retired army officials from Arakan contest as independent candidates in
the 2010 elections.

He said, "Major (Retired) U Tha Sein was selected as an individual
candidate to contest the 2010 election along with other pro-military
government parties."

It is suspected that the plan was the result of the government's anxiety
that pro-government parties may lose the 2010 election in Arakan State due
to widespread disapproval among Arakanese people.

"It is a strategy of the military junta for the 2010 election. If the
people of Arakan do not support the pro-military regime parties, the army
authorities will arrange it so the people can support the retired
Arakanese army officials," the politician said.

In the 2010 election, some pro-military government parties will put up
candidates alongside pro-government independent candidates. Most of the
independent candidates are expected to be retired army officers.

The military government is planning to win the 2010 election and many
ministerial officials have been visiting Arakan State for preparations.
"The military government is now luring Arakanese people into supporting
pro-military government candidates in the 2010 election by starting
development projects in Arakan, such as railway construction and electric
power," the politician said.

The military government announced recently that it will build a railway
route from Ann to Sittwe to connect with central Burma, and will build a
hydropower plant on the Sai Din waterfall in Buthidaung to produce and
distribute electricity throughout Arakan State.

____________________________________

March 4, Independent Mon News Agency
Burmese army forces farmers to “donate” paddy in Lamine Township

The Burmese army is requiring farmers to provide paddy, say local sources
in, Lamine Sub Township, Mon State.

For the last ten days, farmers in Thaung Pyin village have each been
required to provide a half sack of paddy to Light Infantry Battalion [IB]
No. 587, a farmer told IMNA. Farmers who do not wish to provide paddy are
required to pay 3,000 kyat instead. LIB No. 587, based 6 miles away near
Arutaung village, northern Ye Township, controls the area.

“Every family who has a paddy field has to pay. The soldiers said if
people do not want to provide paddy, they have to pay 3,000 kyat of
money,” said another farmer, who added that Thaung Pyin village is home to
400 farmers.

Most farmers are paying money rather than providing paddy, the farmer
said. “The paddy price is low, so we want to pay paddy. But if we pay the
half sack of paddy, we have to transport it to the battalion [6 miles away
in Arutaung]. For that reason, more people pay money.” A half sack of
paddy is currently worth 4,000 kyat, and many farmers are also storing
paddy in the hopes that prices will rise later during the rainy season.

Paddy quotas have been common in Burma for decades, with farmers required
to “donate” portions of their crop or sell to government buyers at
artificially low prices. Though the policy was officially abolished in
2003, farmers continue report being required to provide free or discount
paddy to the Burmese army.

____________________________________
ON THE BORDER

March 4, Kachin News Group
Camps for 15,000 Chinese labourers at Irrawaddy River hydropower project

With the help of the Burmese ruling junta, two firms of contractors are
constructing labour camps for 15,000 Chinese at the controversial
Irrawaddy River hydropower project site at Mali and N’Mai Rivers’
Confluence called Myitsone, or Mali-N’Mai Zup in Kachin, said local
people. This is the biggest project in Kachin State in northern Burma.

The Myitsone hydropower project site, one of Burma’s tourist attractions
is located only 27 miles north of Myitkyina, the capital of Kachin State. 
The project is being implemented by the Burma-Asia World Co. Ltd. and
Chinese government’s China Power Investment Corporation (CPI) since early
2007.

The two companies’ labour and construction machinery camps are being built
at two places near Tang Hpre, a Kachin village on the Mali-N’Mai Rivers’
Confluence while new buildings are being constructed at the place in
Irrawaddy River called Lungga Zup in Kachin where Kahpre village is
situated, according to residents in the project site.

Local eyewitnesses told KNG today, that the Asia World Co. Ltd. owns five
acres of land space in Kahpre village and it has already built new labour
camps. The camps are meant for over 15,000 Chinese construction workers
and labourers from CPI in China. They will arrive in the camps in October
this year, added local sources close to the two firms.

At the moment, over a hundred Chinese inspectors and labourers are working
at the project site day and night, a local villager told KNG.

Later, the Chinese construction workers and labourers will stay in the
camps until the 10-year Myitsone hydropower plant project is completed in
2017, said sources close to the CPI.

Now, over 50 Kachin villages around Myitsone hydropower project site are
increasingly being pressurized to relocate to safer areas for fear of
future dam disasters by the Asia World Co. Ltd., said villagers.


According to local villagers who saw the map of the project, the companies
plan to construct three large dams near the confluence.  They also plan to
generate 3,600 MW of electricity from Myitsone hydropower project.

On the other hand, the CPI and Asia World Co. Ltd. are currently
constructing a hydropower project in N’Mai River at Chibwe town in east of
Kachin State with more men and machines than in Myitsone project.  The
project will generate 2,000 MW of electricity.

The CPI and Asia World Co. Ltd. agreed to construct seven hydropower
plants in Kachin State --- two in Mali or Irrawaddy River and five in
N’Mai River where a total of 13,360 MW electricity is to be generated,
according to Burma’s state-run paper.

The electricity will be mainly sold to China’s Yunnan province which is
badly in need of electricity because China is developing Yunnan as an
industrial zone, said local sources close to CPI.
____________________________________

March 3, Irrawaddy
Burmese migrants come under stricter control – Min Lwin

Local authorities in Thailand’s Chiang Mai Province recently sent a stern
warning to Thais who house and employ illegal migrant workers from Burma,
according to the Chiang Mai-based Migrant Assistance Program (MAP).

“The main goal is to get Burmese migrant workers to add their names to the
list,” said MAP member Jo Tong Dee, referring to an informal registry of
migrant workers maintained by the heads of villages where Burmese are
employed.

Jo Tong Dee said that all Burmese migrant workers have been instructed to
inform village authorities of their presence, regardless of their legal
status.

“Whether they have work permits or not, they have to give their
information to the village heads,” he said.

The warning was issued following a series of arrests targeting illegal
migrant workers in the northern Thai province, which is home to a large
Burmese migrant population.

Several hundred Burmese migrant workers have been arrested in and around
Chiang Mai since February 8, when a 22-year-old student from Mae Jo
University was found murdered in her dormitory room. Two Burmese migrant
workers were arrested in connection with the case.

Sources from migrant worker assistance groups said that local authorities
in San Sai District, where the university is located, have urged Thais to
inform them about illegal migrants working on construction sites in the
area.

One source said that migrants who live in camps in San Sai and San Kampang
districts have to hide in the jungle at night.

According to the migrant worker groups, Thais running shops and factories
have urged the government not to expel migrants, who make up a significant
portion of the local workforce.

Meanwhile, local authorities in Mae Rim, near the city of Chiang Mai, have
imposed a curfew on Burmese migrant workers, who are not permitted to
drive motorbikes after 8 p.m. Or carry any tool that can be used as a
weapon.

Local authorities have also forbidden Burmese migrants to rent land or
cultivate gardens. They were specifically told that they could not grow
flowers or chili.

According to MAP’s estimates, there are about 80,000 Burmese migrants,
most of them ethnic Shan, working legally and illegally in the Chiang Mai
area.

____________________________________
BUSINESS / TRADE

March 4, Xinhua
Myanmar official media call for boosting regional economic co-op

Myanmar official newspaper New Light of Myanmar Wednesday called for
boosting economic cooperation among members of the Association of
Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) to win more development in the region.

"ASEAN countries can enjoy greater regional development in the near future
if they keep on boosting trade and investment cooperation in the economic
sector in accordance with the fine tradition of their unity," said the
paper in its editorial, while hailing some outcomes of the 14th ASEAN
Summit held in Hua Hin, Thailand from Feb. 27 to March 1.

"ASEAN is now trying hard to boost regional economic cooperation as part
of the drive for establishing ASEAN economic community by 2015, the
editorial said, pointing out that being rich in natural and human
resources, ASEAN region has economic opportunities and attracts the
attention of investor.

Noting that ASEAN members have now endorsed the Declaration on Roadmap for
ASEAN Community, the editorial predicts that when ASEAN community emerges,
the peoples of ASEAN members will be able to enjoy progress in the sectors
of peace, stability, prosperity, social affairs and culture.

Attended by Myanmar Prime Minister General Thein Sein along with other
heads of government of ASEAN members, the ASEAN summit held discussions on
the implementation of ASEAN Charter and exchanged views on regional and
international issues, global financial crisis, disaster management, food
and energy security, and regional and international situation.

At the summit, the ASEAN heads of government signed the Declaration on
Roadmap for ASEAN Community.

More agreements were also signed which are -- ASEAN Petroleum Security
Agreement, ASEAN Trade in Goods Agreement, ASEAN Comprehensive Investment
Agreement, Protocol to Implement the 7th package of Commitments under
ASEAN Framework Agreement on Service, and three programs for mutual
recognition of ASEAN Quality.

Myanmar, which joined the ASEAN along with Laos in July 1997, ratified the
ASEAN Charter in July last year.

Myanmar has urged its people to strive together in building the ASEAN
community, anticipating that the future emergence of the ASEAN community
by 2015 will benefit Myanmar citizens along with other regional members in
sharing the fruits of peace and stability, prosperity and socio-cultural
development.

ASEAN's three pillars are known as political security community, economic
community and socio-culture community.

The last 13th ASEAN Summit was held in Singapore in November 2007.

ASEAN comprises Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the
Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.

____________________________________

March 4, Xinhua
Myanmar to auction some state-owned business undertakings in Yangon

The Yangon municipal authorities of Myanmar will hold auction of rental
options on some state-owned business undertakings and tender of some
old-aged state-owned vehicles in the former capital in the second week of
this month, according to the Yangon City Development Committee (YCDC)
Wednesday.

The auction and tender will take place from March 11 to 12 and the
business undertakings for rental options includes business service run in
gardens, motor car maintenance service, restaurant service in Yangon City
Golf Club and billboard erection service which is limited to advertising
alcohol and those that do not keep with Myanmar traditions, the YCDC said.

In February last year, YCDC invited private companies to bid for
advertisement on billboards at 10 locations in Yangon.

Meanwhile, the Yangon municipal authorities will also tender some
state-owned buildings and land plots in Yangon as part of its
privatization program of such government estate remained there after the
government administration was moved to Nay Pyi Taw in late 2005, an
earlier report said.

A total of 113 two-storey residential buildings in Yangon's three
townships as well as the office building of the Association of
Myanmar-Thai Cultural and Economic Cooperation opened in the famous Mya
Yeik Nyo Hotel and 38 plots of land with a housing project some
state-owned buildings and land plots in Yangon will be sold under the
tender system.

In December last year, Myanmar also announced privatization of 36 more
state-owned economic enterprises (SEEs) from four government ministries
under a sealed tender system.

The 36 SEEs from the Ministry of Industry-1, Ministry of Commerce,
Ministry of Livestock Breeding and Fisheries, and Ministry of Cooperatives
mostly lie in Yangon and Mandalay.

The categories of the 34 SEEs of the two prior ministries to be privatized
include ice factory, soft-drink factory, gas plant, match factory, blanket
factory, packing paper factory, leather factory, rubber glove factory,
paint factory, rice mill and bran oil factory, while the latter two
ministries are to sell out two of its office buildings in Yangon and
Mawlamyine respectively, earlier official report said.

Myanmar has been privatizing more and more state-owned enterprises for
effective operation since 14 years ago.

According to a compiled statistics, a total of 254 state-owned enterprises
out of 288 proposed from 10 ministries have been privatized in Myanmar as
of the end of 2008 since the country began implementation of a plan of
privatization in 1995.

The privatization plan covering those enterprises nationalized in the
1960s was introduced in a bid to systematically turn them into more
effective enterprises, according to the Privatization Commission.

The plan is carried out by auctioning and leasing or establishing joint
ventures with local and foreign investors.

____________________________________
ASEAN

March 4, Associated Press
Myanmar must treat Muslim migrants better

Military-ruled Myanmar must assure its neighbors that thousands of Muslim
boat people who have fled the country will not be persecuted if they're
returned home, Malaysia's foreign minister said Wednesday.

The comments by Rais Yatim came after Malaysian Prime Minister Abdullah
Ahmad Badawi last week called for the Rohingya to be sent back to Myanmar
because they had become a burden to the countries where they washed
ashore.

The Muslim Rohingya number about 800,000 in predominantly Buddhist
Myanmar, where they are denied full citizenship and face widespread abuses
including forced labor, land seizures and rape, rights groups say.

Thousands have fled to Bangladesh, Malaysia and the Middle East, and
rights groups have expressed concern they will be tortured or killed if
forced to return to Myanmar.

Rais said the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations recently
agreed to find a regional solution to the problem. ASEAN wants Myanmar to
promise "not to persecute them when they go back," he said.

Myanmar was informed of the bloc's wishes at a recent summit in Thailand,
but the country's leaders didn't indicate whether it will cooperate, Rais
told reporters.

Rais said he will also send a diplomatic note to his Myanmar counterpart
to urge it to comply with international human rights standards.

The plight of the Rohingya gained international attention in January after
allegations that more than 1,200 of them were detained by Thai authorities
and later sent adrift at sea on boats with little food or water.

Hundreds are believed to have drowned.

Suaram, a Malaysian rights group, slammed the call to return the refugees
as "inhumane," and urged ASEAN nations to give temporary shelter to the
Rohingya until conditions were safe for them to return home.

But Rais defended his government's stance. Malaysia has the biggest number
of Rohingya refugees in the region, totaling 14,700, many of whom have
stayed for years in the country, working illegally in plantations or
factories, he said.

"We like to state categorically that they are illegals coming to our
country. ... We have to contend with the problem they are giving us," Rais
said.

____________________________________
INTERNATIONAL

March 4, BBC News
City honours democracy campaigner

A pro-democracy campaigner, under house arrest in Burma, has been given
the Freedom of Glasgow in her absence.

Dr Aung San Suu Kyi, 63, has spent more than half of the past two decades
in some form of detention imposed by the country's military regime.

The leader of the opposition National League for Democracy was awarded the
Nobel Peace Prize in 1991.

Her representative, Dr Thuang Htun, accepted the award at Glasgow City
Chambers.

Speaking before the ceremony, he said: "The fact that Dr Aung San Suu Kyi
should be given the freedom of a city far from her home, at a time that
she is denied even basic freedoms in her own country is a sharp reminder
of the reality of today's Burma."

On learning that she would be given the Freedom of Glasgow, Dr Suu Kyi
said: "It is not power that corrupts but fear. Fear of losing power
corrupts those who wield it and fear of the scourge of power corrupts
those who are subject to it."

The award, which was proposed by Amnesty International and Glasgow Women's
Library, was presented by Glasgow Lord Provost Bob Winter.

"It is with profound respect and admiration for Dr Aung San Suu Kyi's
unflinching bravery that the council has conferred upon her the Freedom of
the City of Glasgow," he said.

"This is tempered with frustration that she cannot be here today, in person.

"However, I am delighted that her loyal representative Dr Htun has been
able to visit our city to accept the award in her absence.

Election win

"He goes with our very best wishes for Dr Suu Kyi, a shining beacon of
hope in her country."

Dr Suu Kyi is the daughter of Aung San, wartime leader of Anti-Fascist
People's Freedom League. He was assassinated in 1947.

She founded the National League for Democracy (NLD) in 1988 and was put
under house arrest with the offer of freedom if she left Burma.

In 1990 the NLD won the general election decisively and once again Dr Suu
Kyi was placed under house arrest.

The election result was nullified by a military junta.

____________________________________
OPINION / OTHER

March 4, Foreign Policy in Focus
Dealing with Burma through China? – Kanbawza Win

The people of Burma have high hopes for Barack Obama. Burmese still look
to Washington — rather than Beijing, New Delhi, or Moscow — to provide
reliable political support for democratic change. But although Burma is
back in the headlines — with the Rohingya refugee crisis and Thailand’s
refusal to provide these stateless Burmese Muslim boat-people with refugee
status — the other foreign policy issues pressing in on the Obama
administration may quickly push the Southeast Asian country to the back
burner.

The United States continues to play a key role in Burma. Secretary of
State Hillary Clinton, on her current tour of Asia, singled Burma out for
attention, signaling a potential shift in U.S. policy away from the
current sanctions regime. But the country with much greater influence on
the ground is China. With Clinton sitting down with the Chinese to discuss
comprehensive cooperation, can Beijing and Washington hammer out a
"bipartisan consensus" on Burma?

East vs. West
The United States has two schools of thought when it comes to dealing with
the Burmese junta. One side blindly opposes anything having to do with the
Burmese military dictators, viewing the junta as evil and advocating for
more sanctions to further isolate the regime. The other side, led by
academics, intellectuals, and others, feels that the current stalemate and
the isolation of the junta do not serve the interests of the American or
Burmese people. They believe in dialogue, but not necessarily
"constructive engagement" as practiced by the Association of Southeast
Asian Nations (ASEAN).

While U.S. policies on Burma have been traditionally paralyzed by this
standoff, China has approached Burma slowly and deliberately, based on
national interest. Their policy makers are experts on Burma and they speak
fluent Burmese. Most importantly, they know the culture and the motivation
of the Burmese, especially the mindset of the generals. Chinese officials
regularly visit Burma to closely monitor the pulse of the ruling elite.
They study the players carefully, they know the sensitive nature of
Burmese nationalism, and they are not arrogant in their dealings with
either the government or the opposition.

China supports the present regime, but it has also taken care not to
antagonize the opposition. The Chinese have met with many opposition
players and have made particular efforts to build working relationships
with a younger generation of leaders in exile who have the temperament to
develop good diplomatic skills, and an understanding of Western thinking
and policy formulation. In other words, China is looking after its own
interests by dealing with the current Burmese government but also hedging
its bets in case of another uprising and the toppling of the military
regime.

The Chinese have considerable energy interests in Burma. They are
interested not only in purchasing natural gas from the gas fields off the
Burmese coast being developed by South Korean and Indian firms. They also
want to convert the state of Arakan on Burma’s west coast into an oil
depositary like Texas and Louisiana. They hope to ship oil from the Middle
East to Arakan and then pipe it to the south China state of Yunnan,
bypassing the entire trip through the Straits of Malacca to the East China
Sea. In this way, Burma becomes a vital part of China's energy security
plan. Knowing the strategic importance of their natural resources and
geographical location, however, the Burmese leaders are now trying to play
the Russian card by seeking to build a strategic alliance with Moscow as
well. This alliance with Russia would gain the Burmese generals another UN
veto, just in case the Chinese get too cozy with the Americans in the
Security Council. Burma is also turning to North Korea and Iran for
assistance.

In this context, the United States has an important role to play in Burma
but must share leadership with the Chinese. Only the Chinese have the
necessary influence to convince the ruling generals to find a durable
solution for Burma.

A New U.S. Policy
The Burmese junta has barely flinched in the face of the suspension of
economic aid, the imposition of an arms embargo, the ban on U.S. visas for
senior junta leaders, and the ban on new U.S. investment in Burma. UN
special representative Ibrahim Gambari has recently returned empty handed
from his seventh visit to the country. It's time for the new American
administration to review its policy. The U.S. policy of imposing
unilateral trade and investment sanctions against Burma has proven to be a
failure on all fronts. Forcing U.S. firms to disengage from Burma has
harmed American economic interests and done nothing to improve the living
conditions or human rights of the people of Burma. Furthermore, unilateral
sanctions have alienated American allies in the region and strengthened
the hand of China.

In light of worsening conditions in Burma and significant changes in
global power politics since the turn of the millennia, a change in
strategy is needed. To best achieve U.S. objectives, this strategy should
leverage all four major instruments of power — economic, military,
information, and diplomacy. A more focused approach consisting of smart
sanctions coupled with diplomacy is necessary to force the recalcitrant
military junta to respond positively. The Obama administration should lead
a new effort to push the key regional states to act in unison, even as the
U.S. Congress continues to highlight abuses and sustain the faith of the
Burma’s various opposition forces.

A smart precondition before the Obama administration offers any carrots
would be to insist that the Burmese junta unclench its fist by releasing
political prisoners including Burma’s Nobel laureate Aung San Sui Kyi. The
administration should also consider a high-profile special envoy for
Burma. New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson, for instance, has visited
Burma and is familiar with regional politics.

As in the Six Party talks with North Korea, the United States and China
should take the lead but bring in all major global powers to have their
say and to speak in one voice. Instead of China mediating between the
United States and the Burmese government, the United States and China must
act together to find common ground and then, in turn, act as honest
brokers in a discussion among Burmese stakeholders.

Unlike Vietnam and Iraq, Burma retains a heritage of democratic governance
established in the wake of post-colonial rule. In 1988, a strong
democratic opposition party gained the political validation of tens of
millions of Burmese people across starkly different ethnic and demographic
groups. Outside powers did not create this opposition; U.S.-led operatives
didn't form the National League for Democracy to undermine the legitimacy
of an unfriendly government.

By teaming up with China, the United States can devise a policy that both
respects this democratic opposition and also reaches out to the current
Burmese government. If the two great powers can resolve their differences
over Burma policy, despite different political systems, then they can set
an example for the undemocratic Burmese government and the democratic
opposition to achieve a compromise that can bring Burma, finally, into the
21st century.

Kanbawza Win was a former secretary of foreign affairs to the Burmese
prime minister. He is now dean of students at AEIOU (the Burmese
University in Diaspora) at Chiangmai University Thailand, an adjunct
professor of the School of International Studies at Simon Fraser
University of British Columbia, Canada, and a contributor to Foreign
Policy In Focus.