BurmaNet News, April 16, 2009

[Editor]

April 16, 2009, Issue #3691


INSIDE BURMA
New York Times: Fun in Myanmar? Once a year, and very wet
Irrawaddy: NLD to hold rare ‘special meeting’ this month

ON THE BORDER
Accuweather.com: Bijli to devastate Myanmar – Rob Millier
South China Morning Post: Thailand vows to never abandon boatpeople at
sea; UN is given guarantee stateless Rohingya will not be left to die

REGIONAL
Irrawaddy: Burmese exiles also deplore Bangkok violence
Xinhua: Myanmar PM leaves for Boao Forum for Asia in China

INTERNATIONAL
UN News Centre: Ban reaffirms concerns over Myanmar in response to US
senators’ letter

OPINION / OTHER
European Voice: Burma needs sanctions and much more – Thaung Htun
Asia Times: China wary of US-Myanmar 'detente' – Jian Junbo

ANNOUNCEMENT
Huffington Post: UCLA benefit for Burma at the 3rd Annual Mighty Mic Concert



____________________________________
INSIDE BURMA

April 16, New York Times
Fun in Myanmar? Once a year, and very wet

If the ruling generals holed up in Naypyidaw, their garrison city in
central Myanmar, wanted to know what riotous fun young Burmese are capable
of, they should have come down to watch how their people celebrated the
traditional New Year’s “water festival” in this former capital.

A similar festival is celebrated in neighboring Thailand and Laos. But the
one here has a certain poignancy about it. This is the one time of year
when the junta looks the other way as masses of young people let loose in
dancing and drinking in this otherwise repressive city, where gatherings
of more than 10 people are usually banned.

So this week, thousands upon thousands of mostly black-clad and drippingly
wet young Burmese thronged this city’s Inya and Kabaraye Pagoda roads, the
two areas to which the government confined the weeklong revelry.

As the blazing sun rose, every other car in the city appeared to have been
mobilized by people heading to the water festival. By 10 a.m., hundreds of
meters of creaking vehicles were backed up trying to enter Inya Road,
where water from the nearby lake was being pumped to 27 roadside
“pandals,” temporary water-throwing platforms that doubled as
discothèques.

On the pandals, young women screamed and danced under a shower of water
and disco lights, stomping the wooden floors to the ear-shattering rhythms
of emo rock music, Western and Burmese. It was not yet noon, but the floor
was already strewn with sprawling young men in a drunken stupor.

Down in the street, young men stomped and danced on top of their vehicles,
which crawled along, honking, while the revelers on the pandals drenched
everyone within range with garden hoses and water cannons.

“We celebrate like this because we can only do it once a year,” said Ko
Zaw Maung, 20, who was with his girlfriend, Ma Ju Ju.

The festival originates in the traditional Burmese way of bidding farewell
to the old year and greeting the new: a respectful sprinkling of water to
cleanse friends and family members as the Buddhist deity Tha Gyar Min
descends to grade each person for the past year. Thingyan, the traditional
New Year, begins on Friday, and the water festival peaks the day before.

Nowadays, in Myanmar as elsewhere in Southeast Asia, the ancient ritual
has been taken over by young people who have turned it into free-for-all.
It is perfectly acceptable to fling a bucket of icy water at total
strangers, at a bicyclist or a passing taxi. (Drunk driving and traffic
accidents spike during the weeklong festival.)

The pandals, some with names like “Mr. LA,” “Dream Boat” or “God Theater,”
hire disc jockeys and celebrities to entice patrons. Many of the platforms
are sponsored by rich and powerful families and businesses, under license
by the Yangon military command.

One pandal, named “Channel-5” is that of Pho La Pyae, a grandson of Senior
General Than Shwe, the head of the ruling junta. His pandal stands apart,
the only one not adjoined by other platforms.

The biggest pandal, an arch-shaped structure with the rather unimaginative
name of YGN (short for Yangon) is run by Sithu Moe Myint, the son of U
Michael Moe Myint, a Burmese oil magnet.

“This festival has become fundamentally unfair,” complained a Yangon
businessperson who helped organize one of the pandals, speaking on
condition of anonymity for fear of government reprisals. “This is only for
the rich.”

The platform sponsors collect admission fees that run as high as $10 a
person, or a third of a factory worker’s monthly salary.

Young people save all year to pay for the tickets and clothes for this one
chance to legally let off steam — an explosion of fun paradoxically
provided by the privileged in a regime that many of the young people hate.

When one drunken man tried to barge onto a pandal without an admission
ticket, security guards ruthlessly beat him with batons. The man, his
shirt in shreds, lay in the road in a stream of water, as the throng moved
on, pushed forward by the merrymaking mob.

A year and a half ago, the military crushed an uprising led by Buddhist
monks. Just under a year ago, Cyclone Nargis left more than 100,000 people
dead. Now, the government is preoccupied with preparations for next year’s
elections, which critics say are aimed at prolonging its grip on power.

“Some countries faced instability following electoral violence due to the
fact that political parties attacked one another in canvassing for votes
in the electoral period, because democratic practice had not been mature
enough in the countries concerned,” Vice Senior-General Maung Aye said
last week, according to the government mouthpiece, The New Light of
Myanmar.

The general’s warning against haste on the road to political reform and
his appeal to the military to “see to democratic transition” came as
Bangkok, the capital of democratic Thailand just an hour’s plane ride
away, was beset by anti-government protests.

Under the Burmese version of democracy, not even the water festival can
continue after sundown. As the sun sank, the water pumps suddenly died.
The music went silent. At both ends of the road, the police moved in with
barricades. And people strolled back to their unlit homes.

“It’s a controlled festival,” the business person said.

____________________________________

April 16, Irrawaddy
NLD to hold rare ‘special meeting’ this month – Wai Woe

Burma’s main opposition party, the National League for Democracy (NLD),
plans to hold a rare special meeting on April 28-29 to discuss what
spokesman Han Thar Myint described as “several matters important for the
country.”

These matters were likely to include the proposed 2010 general election,
Western sanctions against Burma and a proposed review of the newly adopted
constitution, Han That Myint told The Irrawaddy on Thursday.

The meeting will be attended by the party executive, those NLD members who
were successful in the 1990 election, senior members and representatives
of the women’s and youth sections of the party,

“The meeting will be more like an open discussion on several matters
important for the country,” Han Thar Myint said.

Invitations to the special meeting were sent out earlier this month by NLD
chairman Aung Shwe, who said the executive committee would read “a paper”
to participants. Han Thar Myint did not say what the paper would contain.

The NLD, led by democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi, was formed after the 1988
uprising and went on to win more than 80 percent of constituencies in the
1990 general election, the result of which was ignored by the junta.

In its 20 years existence, the NLD has been a frequent target of the
regime. Its offices across the country have been frequently closed down,
many of its members have been harassed and forced to leave the party.

In those two decades, the NLD has been able to hold only two large-scale
meetings, once before the 1990 election and a second in 1997.

An attempt to arrange a meeting in August 1998 of members elected in the
1990 poll failed when the junta arrested several who had planned to take
part. Restrictions were also placed on members’ travel.

Since his release from prison in September 2008, prominent NLD leader Win
Tin has been trying to reorganize the party, including holding regular
executive committee meetings.

No regime reaction to the planned meeting this month has been noted, Han
Thar Myint said.

Apart from regime harassment, the NLD has also been targeted by critics of
its ageing leadership and lack of reform. All executive committee members,
with the exception of Suu Kyi and Khin Maung Swe, are in their eighties.

NLD sources say no reform of the party leadership can be undertaken
because of restrictions by the regime.

An NLD decision on whether or not to participate in the 2010 election is
still awaited. The party has, however, called for a review of the
constitution adopted in 2008, but last month junta leader Snr-Gen Than
Shwe rejected the proposal.

The constitution reserves 25 percent of parliamentary seats for military
officials and assures the military a leading role in Burma’s politics.

____________________________________
ON THE BORDER

April 16, Accuweather.com
Bijli to devastate Myanmar – Rob Millier

Tropical Cyclone Bijli (01B) is gathering strength as it churns through
the northern Bay of Bengal.

Located approximately 350-400 mph south-southwest of Kolkata, India, Bijli
will continue to move in a northeasterly motion and eventually a more
easterly track Friday and Saturday. On this track, Bijli will encounter a
favorable environment for further strengthening prior to making landfall
late Saturday or Saturday night near the border of Myanmar and Bangladesh.
Winds could become sustained at hurricane strength (75 mph) at the time of
landfall.

Outer rain bands are currently impacting eastern India, southern
Bangladesh and western parts of Myanmar. Conditions will continue to
deteriorate across southern Bangladesh and Myanmar as Bijli approaches.

In addition to the flooding rainfall of 10 inches or more and strong winds
common with tropical cyclones, a dangerous storm surge is expected across
western Myanmar prior to and during landfall.

Myanmar was struck by powerful Cyclone Nargis on May 2, 2008, resulting in
the worst natural disaster in Myanmar's recorded history. Nargis struck
the Irrawaddy Delta, an area farther south than where Bijli is expected to
make landfall. While Bijli is not expected to be as strong as Nargis,
devastating flooding is expected later this weekend, lasting into early
next week.

____________________________________

April 16, South China Morning Post
Thailand vows to never abandon boatpeople at sea; UN is given guarantee
stateless Rohingya will not be left to die

Thailand has given guarantees to the United Nations that the Thai military
will never again tow Rohingya boatpeople out to sea and abandon them.

UN High Commissioner for Refugees Antonio Guterres yesterday said he was
confident that stateless Rohingya fleeing Myanmar would not suffer the
same fate as the hundreds who died during the winter sailing season that
had just ended.

"That guarantee was clearly given to me twice by the minister of foreign
affairs of Thailand," Mr Guterres told the South China Morning Post.

"I also think that what happened has been so shocking that it won't happen
again."

He was speaking following the biggest international meeting yet to attempt
to ease the plight of the Rohingya, who have been fleeing Myanmar's
desperately poor northern Rahkine state in growing numbers, crossing the
Andaman Sea by boat and washing ashore in Thailand, Indonesia and
Malaysia.

A recent series of reports in the Post revealed a new Thai army policy of
detaining the Rohingya on isolated islands before towing them out to sea
in powerless boats and abandoning them. At least 1,190 were abandoned in
such fashion. Hundreds are now dead or missing.

Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva has acknowledged some Rohingya were
"cast adrift" but has promised extensive investigations into the policy.
The practice has apparently stopped.

The need to find solutions before new waves of boatpeople start to leave
again later this year dominated discussions over the past two days during
the ministerial conference of the so-called Bali Process on Human
Trafficking.

A fledgling organisation involving some 75 nations and international
agencies, the grouping was galvanised by the Rohingya crisis to holding
just its third ministerial meeting since 2002.

The session ended with agreement allowing any member country to trigger an
emergency working group of affected countries to tackle a specific crisis
- a provision driven by the Rohingya issue.

Myanmar's objections were able to scupper earlier talks at the 10-nation
Association of South East Asian Nations but its delegation to the Bali
Process signed off on the final statement after frantic but delicate
diplomacy.

Regional officials had kept the Rohingya issue off all official statements
and agendas, however, it was raised extensively behind the scenes. A
breakfast session yesterday involving Myanmar's national police chief,
Brigadier General Khin Yi, was particularly crucial.

General Khin Yi refused to accept the Rohingya as Myanmar citizens and
denied any persecution. But he did acknowledge the principle of the need
for working groups and offer Myanmar's co-operation with international
efforts to provide aid and development in northern Rakhine state.
Indonesia and Thailand were seen as particularly crucial in keeping
General Khin Yi involved.

Even before the nationality issue could be settled, the international
community had a "moral obligation" to improving the livelihoods of
Rohingya, as well as access to education and other basic rights, he said.

In a meeting with the co-chairs, Indonesian Foreign Minister Hassan
Wirayuda and his Australian counterpart Stephen Smith, both described the
agreement as merely the first start. Both also acknowledged widespread
social, political and humanitarian issues at the core of the Rohingya's
desire to flee Myanmar.

"This is not a problem that can be solved overnight or in one season,"
General Khin Yi said.

After meeting Mr Smith and Mr Wirayuda, General Khin Yi made clear that
his government would work with the global community but would be offering
no olive branches on nationality for Rohingya.

"I know of no such ethnic group ? they cannot be my nationality," he said.
"I think the problem comes from all the Bengali Muslims who came to that
area under British rule. Who are these Rohingya?" Scholars have traced the
migration of Rohingyan traders from Persia to the Rahkine area, formerly
known as Arakan, as early as the seventh century AD.

____________________________________
REGIONAL

April 16, Irrawaddy
Burmese exiles also deplore Bangkok violence

Burmese exiles in Thailand were exceptionally keen observers of the events
that shook the country in the overheated days and nights of the country’s
Songkran festival. Many saw the way the crisis was handled by the Bangkok
government as confirmation that democracy and respect for fundamental
human rights were secure in Thailand.

“Even though Thailand has some weaknesses in democracy building, it is
more advanced than other Southeast Asian nations,” said Zin Linn of the
Burmese Media Association, who lives in Bangkok.

Many Burmese deplored the use of violence by the red-shirted
anti-government protesters, who disrupted a meeting of Association of
Southeast Asian Nations ministers in Pattaya and then ran wild in Bangkok.

Kyaw Lin Oo, a student at Bangkok’s Ramkhamhaeng University, was one who
thought the protesters had overstepped the mark and caused harm to
uninvolved people.

Zaw Min, a Burmese activist and longtime resident in Thailand, agreed.
“Everybody has a right to protest peacefully, but has no right to hurt
other ordinary people,” he said.

Two people died in clashes between protesters and Bangkok residents
enraged at their violent disruption. More than 100 people were wounded in
the street battles between red-shirt demonstrators and soldiers. Thai army
spokesman said troops fired blanks into the crowds and live shots
overhead.

While the world spotlight fell for several days on the drama playing out
in Thailand, the official media in Burma completely ignored the events.
The Burmese people were again dependent on outside sources for news on the
shattering events occurring just beyond their country’s borders.
____________________________________

April 16, Xinhua
Myanmar PM leaves for Boao Forum for Asia in China

Myanmar Prime Minister General Thein Sein left Nay Pyi Taw Thursday for
China to attend the "BoaoForum for Asia" in Boao, southern China's Hainan
province.

With the theme "Asia: Managing Beyond Crisis", the three-day Boao Forum
for Asia runs from Friday to Sunday and participants will discuss how Asia
will deal with the global financial crisis.

Myanmar has called on all developed and developing countries to make
collective efforts to ensure progress of savings and investment for the
development the nation concerned, emphasizing that all the countries,
developed and developing, to remain harmonious during the crisis.

Meanwhile, the prime minister has also urged his country's citizens
working abroad to come back home for jobs when they are unemployed there
out of the global financial crisis, saying that workers are still in
demand in some sectors in the country and jobs are ready for them.

"The impact of global financial crisis on Myanmar is insignificant. More
jobs will emerge if the entire national peoplemake concerted efforts in
all seriousness, and this will undeniably fulfill the food, cloth, shelter
needs of the people," he told a government ministry coordination meeting,
holding that the global financial crisis does not affect the demand and
products that can be exported as much as it can produce and maintaining
that the main export markets of the country are neighboring ones in Asia.

Noting that Myanmar has no contact with West bloc banks and monetary
organizations, he held that there will be no loss in the monetary sector
as the foreign loans are few compared with other countries.

He also denied economic effect on the country as the government is
building infrastructure on self-reliant basis with its own technology and
money.

____________________________________
INTERNATIONAL

April 16, UN News Centre
Ban reaffirms concerns over Myanmar in response to US senators’ letter

Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon stressed today that he shared concerns
expressed in a letter sent to him by a group of United States senators
about the situation in Myanmar, particularly the continued detention of
opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi.

“The Secretary-General and his Special Adviser have repeatedly called for
her release and that of other political prisoners, and will continue to do
so,” according to a statement issued by his spokesperson.

The letter was sent by 10 women senators who urged Mr. Ban to pressure the
South-East Asian country to immediately and unconditionally release all
political prisoners and to drop controversial election plans, according to
media reports.

“The Secretary-General continues to follow closely the situation in
Myanmar to promote national reconciliation, democratic transition, and
respect for human rights in accordance with the mandate given to him by
the General Assembly,” Mr. Ban’s spokesperson added in response.

Following the return of Special Adviser Ibrahim Gambari from Myanmar in
February, Mr. Ban reiterated his call for the release of the hundreds of
political prisoners still in detention, including the Nobel Peace Prize
holding opposition leader.

Mr. Ban also called for the resumption of dialogue between the Government
and the opposition “without delay and without preconditions.”

Mr. Gambari, who told the Security Council that there was some movement
toward “tangible outcomes” from his 31 January to 3 February good offices
visit, was prepared to extend the UN’s political facilitation, Mr. Ban
added at the time.

Although he said he has been given assurances that all political forces in
Myanmar would be allowed to participate freely in multi-party elections
scheduled for 2010, the Special Adviser has called on the Government to
take steps to enhance their credibility

Ms. Suu Kyi has been under house arrest for 12 of the past 18 years and
her current period of detention started in 2003.

____________________________________
OPINION / OTHER

April 16, European Voice
Burma needs sanctions and much more – Thaung Htun

Maintaining sanctions will not be enough to end the horror in Burma;
engagement and ostracisation are both needed.

Key decisions about Burma (Myanmar) are pending. The United States has
announced it is reviewing its Burma policy and at the end of April the EU
will consider whether to renew its sanctions regime.

As an organisation made up of politicians democratically elected by the
Burmese people in the 1990 elections, the National Coalition Government of
the Union of Burma (NCGUB) has backed sanctions. Yet we understand that
sanctions are no easy fix. This is not a debate about sanctions alone; it
is a debate about international action.

The debate so far has tended to see sanctions as a silver bullet. However,
it defies logic or precedent to assume sanctions can, as a lone policy
tool, generate the sort of drastic reform in Burma that is needed.

The NCGUB has supported sanctions because they have an impact on the
Burmese regime and this has been admitted time and again by the generals.
But it has never envisaged a system of Cuba-style blanket blocks on
Burmese economic activity. Any sanctions must be targeted to maximise the
impact on the junta and to minimise pressure on ordinary Burmese people.

Freezes on financial transactions for selected members of the junta are
appropriate. Regulations against imports of Burmese jade, a trade closely
connected to the junta, are also relevant.

But sanctions alone are unlikely to bring down a regime as power-hungry as
the one in Burma.

This problem is compounded by the fact that sanctions on Burma have been
regularly broken. Economic walls put up by Brussels or Washington have
been overwhelmed by a flood of business, mainly from neighbouring
countries. Trade's centre of gravity has merely shifted and the generals
live on.

For sanctions to work, a range of additional measures need to be used to
increase pressure and offer benefits.

For instance, major powers and neighbouring countries should look to
address Burma's longer-term economic problems. Macro- and micro-economic
reform is necessary to balance the regime's mindless evisceration of the
economy and to set the groundwork for a liberal democratic future.

It is in the best interests of everyone, from major powers to neighbouring
countries, to find ways to re-introduce democratic and liberal principles
in Burma.

Economic measures, such as a firm and targeted sanctions regime, are a
part of that agenda. But we also need incentives and, to that end, we
support appropriate and sustainable engagement.

Some, including the International Crisis Group in an influential report
and the analyst Fraser Cameron on European Voice's website, argue that a
process of dialogue can be built on Burma's decision to open itself up to
a limited degree, in the aftermath of Cyclone Nargis in 2008. This
argument is faulty and surprisingly naive. It seems ignorant of just how
unwilling the regime is to allow the international community even limited
access and of how brief the apparent thaw was. Cyclone Nargis has not
provided the basis for appropriate and sustainable engagement.

The type of engagement that is needed is equitable and fair-minded – and
suggests the need for a carrot-and-stick approach.

Sanctions are just one of the many elements available. Over the coming
months, the NCGUB will roll out a range of initiatives designed to offer
assistance to Burmese inside and outside Burma. Among those will be ideas
for engagement with Burmese civil society.

Our plan will put forward strategies, including transitional arrangements
and long-term economic recovery programmes designed to re-build Burma's
economic system.

A sanctions debate may well be one we need to have. But such a debate must
be clear-headed and cognisant of the facts. The presence or absence of
sanctions alone will not end Burma's decades-long descent into horror.

For that to end, there is a need for a combination of engagement and
ostracisation, of policy and morality.

Thaung Htun represents the National Coalition Government of the Union of
Burma to the United Nations.

____________________________________

April 16, Asia Times
China wary of US-Myanmar 'detente' – Jian Junbo

In early April, the United States sent an envoy - director of the Office
for Mainland Southeast Asia Stephen Blake - to Myanmar, the first such
visit in seven years. In the same month, US Deputy Secretary of State
James Steinberg said Washington hoped to develop a common strategy with
other Asian countries to help bring Myanmar out of isolation.

Such steps would have been unheard of during the George W Bush
administration, which during its two terms took a hostile policy towards
Myanmar and pressurized it to start a process of democratization.

It seems the administration of President Barack Obama is quietly changing
his predecessor's policy, both towards Myanmar and other nations in what
Bush called the "axis of evil" - Iran, Iraq and North Korea. For example,
the White House recently expressed intent to start dialogue with Tehran
and strengthen links with Pyongyang through the six-party framework. It
has also dispatched congressmen to visit Cuba.

At first glance, it seems strange Obama would change his predecessor's
foreign polices so radically and so quickly, but this is all part of the
new administration's strategy. Under Obama, foreign policy will aim at
proactively strengthening international legitimacy and soft power - or
"smart power" as characterized by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton -
that was depleted under the Bush administration.

Obama is pushing the pendulum of US foreign relations in another
direction, to consolidate a global leadership role severely weakened under
Bush, particularly by the 2003 invasion of Iraq. All signs are that
Washington wants to resume its status of benign hegemony in the post-Bush
era. Against such a background, it's easy to understand Obama's new policy
toward Myanmar, which is also an attempt to regain US influence in Myanmar
lost since the end of the Vietnam War in the mid-1970s.

In a geopolitical sense, the Obama administration's plans will pose a
challenge to the existing balance of power in Southeast Asia, and its
policy will attract attention from some countries, especially Myanmar's
neighboring powers like China and India. In other words, the US's new
Myanmar policy will not only boost the US's image in the world but also
alter the current geopolitical pattern in the region, provided Washington
can carry out this new policy consistently and successfully.

In recent years, the US has been engaged in a war against terrorists in
Afghanistan, Iraq, Pakistan and elsewhere. It took a hostile policy
towards Myanmar, pressing it on human-rights issues, democratization and
the release of dissidents. But the US achieved virtually nothing with
these policies of containment, which are generally ineffective at bringing
isolated countries to their knees. Washington sneered at economic
cooperation with Myanmar and refused economic aid to the country, as the
Bush administration viewed Myanmar as a dictatorial regime.

China took advantage of the situation to cultivate closer economic ties
with Myanmar, which inevitably underpinned improved political relations.
Interdependent relations now are the reality both for China and for
Myanmar. With the development of these relations, China's influence in
Myanmar has increased remarkably.

At first glance, the US's attempt to resume its influence in this country
could pose a challenge to China, that could reduce or even end the Middle
Kingdom's influence there. Geopolitical competition by big powers seems a
very possible future for Southeast Asia, which is not good news for the
countries in the region. Whatever happens, China is unlikely to withdraw
from Myanmar because it has already developed very deep economic relations
with it. China needs Myanmar's raw materials, and more importantly needs
its ports to transport goods to other countries in Africa and Middle East.

On the surface, Washington's new policy to engage Myanmar could create a
geopolitical rivalry that could easily lead to regional conflict. But this
is not the whole or true picture of international politics in this region.
Before analyzing the consequence of new US policy for Myanmar, a question
should be asked: How will the US engage Myanmar?

Firstly, the US could seek direct dialogue with Myanmar's leaders and ask
it to start democratization in exchange for economic or even political
support among the international community. But this approach will not be
easy to put into practice, as it is similar to policies of containment.
Myanmar will not reform its political system according to a timetable set
by Washington or discuss its domestic political affairs with the US.

Secondly, the US could engage Myanmar's major opposition party, the
National League for Democracy, and dissidents who want to see the current
military regime overthrown. Frankly, such "engagement" is nothing new, as
all previous US administrations including the Bush administration tried
that - sometimes even through the Central Intelligence Agency. This
approach is no better than the first and has proved ineffective.

The third alternative for the US is to engage with Myanmar through
economic cooperation or financial aid. However, the US imposes
preconditions on aid or economic ties when dealing with developing
nations. Myanmar has other sources of economic support, for example from
China, so it will never accept conditional US aid. Economic cooperation
without political conditions are not possible for the US and do not fit
with the primitive aims of the US's new Myanmar policy. Steinberg has
clearly stated that the core target of US policy toward Myanmar will not
change. The US hopes Myanmar becomes "more open", can respect human rights
and incorporate itself into global economy.

The US will quickly find it is difficult to engage Myanmar. So at this
moment China is not worried about the US's seemingly rapid penetration of
the Southeast Asian region. Although possible, geopolitical competition is
not imminent. Out of its own strategic concerns, China would not welcome
US engagement in Myanmar as a hegemonic power trying to dictate to Myanmar
on political affairs, as this could result in domestic unrest in Myanmar
that could threaten regional stability.

However, China would welcome economic or trade engagements by the US in
Myanmar. A prosperous Myanmar with social stability fits Chinese interests
and those of the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).
Economic achievements in Myanmar helped by US support could benefit ASEAN
unity. A united and efficient ASEAN can keep regional stability, which
China would welcome.

In consideration of this, China can hardly oppose any positive US
engagement in Myanmar, what China is against is any US tactics that would
interfere in Myanmar's internal affairs and lead to regional instability.
Additionally, the US should recognize the fact that China is an important
actor in Southeast Asia when it plans its engagement policy in Myanmar,
and the US would face great difficulty if it tried to exclude China from
its new Myanmar policy.

The US should not attempt to try a six-party mechanism in its engagement
with Myanmar. China, Myanmar and perhaps ASEAN will refuse this
suggestion, although Steinberg voiced this idea several days ago. Myanmar
is not North Korea, and is not threatening any country. Myanmar is not an
issue for the international community, so it's not necessary to discuss
Myanmar in a multilateral framework.

It will not be easy for the US to successfully engage in Myanmar if it
tries the obsolete approaches used by Bush. China will never welcome that.
But Beijing will be happy if the US can engage in Myanmar as a pure
business partner. Essentially, the success or failure of US engagement in
Myanmar does not depend on other countries' attitudes but on its own
approach.

Dr Jian Junbo is assistant professor of the Institute of International
Studies at Fudan University, Shanghai, China.

____________________________________
ANNOUNCEMENT

April 16, Huffington Post
UCLA benefit for Burma at the 3rd Annual Mighty Mic Concert

On Tuesday, April 21, thousands of students and community members will
come together to make history at the 3rd Annual Mighty Mic Human Rights
Awareness Concert at UCLA, Benefit for Burma. This student-run nonprofit
concert attracts about 2,000 attendees annually and is fast becoming a
UCLA tradition. Last year, Mighty Mic raised over $20,000 for the refugees
of the genocide in Darfur; this year's event will highlight the struggle
for human rights in Burma, a country that has been under the rule of an
oppressive military junta for 43 years. Human rights violations in Burma
include the abuse of ethnic minorities, mass rape of women, forced labor,
mandatory relocations, and child soldiers. Benefit for Burma's multimedia
showcase will feature an eclectic mix of artists from a variety of genres.
Blackalicious, Daphne Loves Derby, Audible Mainframe, Jarell Perry, and
Brandon Contreras will be performing, and speakers Edith Mirante, Min Zin,
Khin Omar, and the All-Burma Monks Alliance will deliver their messages of
hope and inspiration.

The event will also include an on-site art gallery, interactive
educational activities, and booth space for various sponsors,
student-organizations, and nonprofits such as Causecast and Causecast
featured organization Free Arts.

The concert itself is free, but donations are highly encouraged, as all
proceeds will go towards Doctors Without Borders (USA) and US Campaign for
Burma.

For more information, ticketing, press passes, vendor and sponsorship
opportunities visit www.mightymic.org and www.causecast.org