BurmaNet News, July 2, 2009

[Editor]

July 2, 2009, Issue #3746


INSIDE BURMA
Irrawaddy: UN's Ban to meet Suu Kyi party members: spokesman
DVB: North Korea exporting weapons overland to Burma

ON THE BORDER
IMNA: Meeting held to pre-empt spread of swine flu to migrant workers

ASEAN
Mizzima News: TCG urges donors to shore up support for cyclone survivors

REGIONAL
Irrawaddy: Burmese injured in Malaysian camp riots

INTERNATIONAL
AFP: UN chief says Myanmar mission 'very difficult'
VOA: Burmese exiles, rights groups hold hope for UN Chief's visit
Jakarta Post: UK embassy to display giant Suu Kyi image

OPINION / OTHER
Wall Street Journal: U.N. mission to nowhere – Bertil Lintner
World Politics Review: Burma tests ASEAN's legitimacy – Colby Pacheco
Guardian (UK): Should Ban Ki-moon visit Burma? – Francis Wade

INTERVIEW
Mizzima News: Will Ban Ki-moon’s trip to Burma be fruitful?




____________________________________
INSIDE BURMA

July 2, Irrawaddy
UN's Ban to meet Suu Kyi party members: spokesman

UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon is to meet senior members of the party of
Aung San Suu Kyi when he visits Myanmar this week but has no plans yet to
see the opposition leader, a party spokesman said.

Ban is set to arrive in the military-ruled nation on Friday for a two-day
visit focused on pressing the junta to release all political prisoners
including the jailed Nobel peace laureate.

"The authorities informed us that five central executive committee members
of the NLD (National League for Democracy) are to meet Mr Ban Ki-moon. We
don't know details yet," NLD spokesman Nyan Win told AFP.

He said the five did not include Aung San Suu Kyi, who is currently being
held at the notorious Insein Prison in the commercial hub Yangon where she
is on trial for breaching the terms of her house arrest.

Nyan Win and other members of her legal team were due to meet her at the
jail on Thursday, a day before her trial resumes.

A Myanmar official speaking on condition of anonymity said that Ban would
meet with members of 10 political parties including the NLD in the
administrative capital Naypyidaw on Friday.

Ban is also set to meet junta leader Senior General Than Shwe in Naypyidaw
on the same day and is due to fly back to Yangon on Saturday, officials
said.

Aung San Suu Kyi, 64, faces up to five years in jail if convicted of the
charges against her, which stem from a bizarre incident in May in which an
American man, John Yettaw, swam uninvited to her lakeside house.

Ban acknowledged this week that the visit was diplomatically risky as it
coincides with the internationally condemned trial, but said that finding
an appropriate time to come to Myanmar had been a challenge.

Speaking in Tokyo on Tuesday, he urged Myanmar to release all political
prisoners including Aung San Suu Kyi and resume dialogue with opposition
leaders.

The NLD leader has been in detention or under house arrest for most of the
time since the junta refused to recognise her party's landslide victory in
Myanmar's last elections, in 1990.

Critics have accused the junta of using the trial to keep Aung San Suu Kyi
locked up for elections that are due in 2010.

____________________________________

July 2, Democratic Voice of Burma
North Korea exporting weapons overland to Burma – Francis Wade

North Korea is suspected to have illegally exported weapons to Burma via
overland routes through China to avoid naval detection or interception, a
South Korean newspaper said yesterday.

The news follows reports that the North Korean ship, the Kang Nam 1, being
tracked by the US navy on suspicion that it is carrying weapons in breach
of new UN sanctions on Pyongyang has turned around.

North Korea, like many countries, has traditionally used sea routes to
carry exports to other parts of the world.

Following a series of sanctions on the regime that, since 2006, have
increasingly targeted weapons exports, the government is alleged to have
used overland routes that are harder to detect, the Chosun Ilbo newspaper
said.

Using this method, Pyongyang has exported weaponry to Iran, Syria, Laos
and Burma totaling $US800 million since 2000, the Chosun Ilbo quoting US
intelligence agencies.

“It also exported weapons by building assembly factories in importing
countries,” the report said.

“To circumvent an entry ban on its ships in ports, North Korean chartered
ships under the names of foreigners, falsified the country of origin, or
did business through a third country. That is mostly how it was able to
export to Iran, Syria, Burma and Laos.”

According to North Korea expert Dr Leonid Petrov, this method has been
used in the past to export sensitive material.

“Not every [North Korean] ship is government owned or government managed -
North Korean crews sometimes operate under foreign companies,” he said.

“There are plenty of cooperative companies, not really private and not
really government-run, that operate on a market basis and commercial
basis, so they can go wherever they want and pick up any cargo.”

Burma reportedly refused to accept the Kang Nam ship, although it is
unclear what its reason was.

Earlier this week US officials said the ship was still being tracked by US
navy about 250 miles south of Hong Kong, heading north, although did not
comment on possible destinations.

The new UN resolution on North Korea allows countries to request searches
of North Korean suspected of carrying weapons or suspicious material,
although the US is yet to board the Kang Nam.

“It’s simply impossible to monitor the majority of routes, either inland
or air, and probably only maritime cargo can be stopped and possibly
searched but there is a high chance of provoking a skirmish or battle, so
I don’t think [the UN resolution] is going to work anyway,” said Petrov.

____________________________________
ON THE BORDER

July 2, Independent Mon New Agency
Meeting held to pre-empt spread of swine flu to migrant workers – Asah,
Weng Mon

A meeting of health officials and migrant workers came after increasing
fears about swine flu spreading in public places. Migrant workers were
advised about safety precautions, and employers were urged to provide ID’s
that would allow migrants to access hospitals.

On June 30th, a Thailand’s minister of Public health, Witthaya
Kaewparadai, spoke at a meeting in Maharchai (Sanmuhsakon), which was
purposefully attended by Burmese migrant workers, to discuss the threat of
swine flu and the need for safety.


A migrant worker from the meeting said that the public health invited 10
migrants from each factory in Maharchai to attend, along with doctors and
city officials. According to estimates, close to 200 migrant workers were
able to attend the meeting.

“Because of this disease, they [Thai authorities] should have meetings for
migrants throughout the area, so that migrant works will stay healthy, and
learn about how to protect against contracting swine flu. If this disease
spreads to the migrant workers, they shouldn’t work, and should stay and
rest in their rooms and work when they are well” said Witthaya
Kaewparadai, from the Thailand of Public Health.

Minister Witthaya Kaewparadai went on to explain that the disease could
very easily spread from one migrant work to another, such as it has
recently spread between people at offices, factories, and universities.

At present there are an estimated 200,000 migrant workers that are living
and working in Maharchai. Many migrants do not have ID’s, though a
specific number is difficult to calculate. If a migrant worker didn’t have
an ID and contracted swine flu, it would be very difficult to see a doctor
at a nearby hospital, as treatment would be costly with the price based on
the illness being treated. In comparison, workers with ID’s in Maharchai
would be treated, having only to pay a flat rate of 30 baht, according to
a city official.

Before the June 30th meeting, Public health officials have been checking
the cleanliness of living conditions of migrant workers in cities and
towns throughout Thailand, according to a migrant worker in Maharchai
who’s room had been checked. It is unclear if officials were able to check
the conditions of migrant workers who are with out ID’s.

One migrant worker who attended the meeting felt that migrant workers now
had more rights than before, citing the meeting as well as the
announcement of IDs for migrant by Thai authorities as justification.

On May 26th, 2008, Thai authorities announced that they would be producing
ID’s for all the migrant workers in Thailand, according to a source at the
Raks Thai Foundation. The Raks Thai Foundation is a non-profit that
protects worker rights, and investigates problems and complaints with
employers.

According to a migrant worker at a fish canning factory in Maharchai, for
new migrant workers who recently arrived and want to get an ID, there are
two costs: First a migrant must pay a broker 5,000 baht, and then pay an
additional 4,000 baht for the cost of the ID.

Thai authorities will produce ID’s from July 1st to the 30th in 2009,
which will expire in late February 2010. Migrants will only be able to use
these IDs for 7 months according to a source close to the Raks Thai
Foundation.

“After the work permit expires for migrant workers, the government will
make a passport specifically for migrant workers in Thailand,” a source at
Raks Thai Foundation speculated.

Since 2004 Thai authorities have required migrant works in Thailand to
have IDs. The Raks Thai Foundation estimates that there are an estimated 2
million Burmese migrant workers in Thailand, while only 464,114 are
confirmed to have IDs.

A migrant worker from Maharchai explained, “If we have no ID, it is very
difficult for us to get cured at the hospital. But now they are making
IDs, and we have already prepaid our boss for one.”

____________________________________
ASEAN

July 2, Mizzima News
TCG urges donors to shore up support for cyclone survivors – Solomon

The tripartite Core Group is urging donors to contribute US$ 157 million
for rebuilding schools in cyclone-hit Irrawaddy delta of Burma.

The TCG, formed with the United Nations, the Burmese regime and
Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean), formed in the wake of the
deadly Cyclone Nargis, to oversee humanitarian assistance in the
devastated areas, on Tuesday said, thousands of children in the delta are
being forced to resume their education in temporary shelters and without
proper supply of educational kits.

Bishow Parajuli, the UN Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator in Burma, in
a press statement on Tuesday urged the international community to increase
support for children as a huge number of school-going children lack a
proper place of learning.

“The international community should increase its support, to complement
national efforts to rebuild all the destroyed schools with permanent
structures to reduce the risk from possible future disasters,” Parajuli
said.

“Also, we need to do even more to support teachers to deal with children
under complex and challenging circumstances, and help them recover from
the psychological impact of the cyclone,” he added.

Cyclone Nargis, which left more than 140,000 dead or missing and
devastated the lives of at least 2.4 million people, also destroyed 56.6
per cent of the total number of schools, accounting for 4,106, in the
delta.

The TCG said, repairing the schools, providing furniture and learning
materials to children, remains a great challenge as there is insufficient
funding from donor countries.

Villagers in the delta told Mizzima that as schools are yet to be rebuilt
children are forced to learn in temporary learning centres and are divided
into shifts to accommodate them.

A local resident of Chaung Wa village in Pyapone Township of the delta
said, “I have seen some villages have rebuilt some schools but there are a
lot of villages that are unable to do so, including ours.”

He said, in their village there are over 1000 children studying in seven
small class rooms. Since it is congested, teachers have to divide the
children into shifts.

“Only about 40 to 50 can sit in a class room, and since the school is yet
to be rebuilt, they have no choice but to use the small rooms on a
temporary basis,” he added.

But for some survivors, sending their children to learning centres is a
big challenge as they do not have enough money for the registration even
as they are forced to struggle to earn a living.

Aung Myint from Wakung village in Southern part of Laputta Township said,
“I have five children. All of them are out of school since the cyclone
struck, I want them to return to schools but it is impossible this year.”

Similarly, a housewife from Wakung village said she has also stopped her
four children from going to schools as they are facing acute financial
shortage because of lack of proper work.

An aid worker with the UN’s World Food Program (WFP) told Mizzima that
survivors are still in dire straits and they are in need of external
assistance particularly in terms of food and shelter.

“A lot of people still live in temporary shelters and still need to get
food supply,” the aid worker said.

____________________________________
REGIONAL

July 2, Irrawaddy
Burmese injured in Malaysian camp riots – Lawi Weng

Eight Burmese detainees were wounded after a small riot broke out at the
Semenyih Immigration camp near Kajang Township, in Malaysia on Wednesday.

Speaking to The Irrawaddy on Thursday, Aung Lwin Oo, one of the detainees
involved in the riot at the camp, said the trouble started at 8pm after
camp authorities beat 30 detainees who were refusing to board a truck that
was to take them to another camp.

The detainees began breaking up the walls of their rooms and throwing
plates at security officers, demanding prison authorities release the 30
people who had been loaded onto the truck.

The police used tear gas to break up the riot.

“We are very angry after we heard they had beaten and forced fellow
prisoners to get on a truck and be moved another camp. When they came for
them they said it was only to meet officials from the UNHCR [United
Nations High Commissioner of Refugees],” he said.

Aung Lwin Oo was in hiding as he talked to The Irrawaddy by phone from the
camp. Camp authorities ban the use of mobile phones.

“On Tuesday, two Burmese detainees were also seriously beaten when they
went to the clinic to ask for medicine. One detainee was beaten around the
eyes,” Lwin Oo reported.

“We don’t know if he will regain his vision because his eyes are filled
with blood. At the moment he can’t see,” he said. “The other detainee
suffered cigarette burns on his body and is in serious condition now.”

Yante Ismail, a spokesperson for the UNHCR based in Kuala Lumpur told The
Irrawaddy, Thursday, that a group from UNHCR left for the camp that
morning to investigate the riot.

She said that she was unable to provide any further details on what
happened at the camp.

The Malaysian National News Agency announced on their Bernama website that
no one was injured during the riot and that the situation was under
control.

According to Burmese rights groups in Malaysia, there are about 700
Burmese detainees at the Semenyih Immigration camp. They are accusing camp
authorities of keeping people who have already served sentences in
detention.

Roi Mon, a member of the Mon Refugees Organization based in Malaysia, said
that inmates do not have enough food and water, and the camp is crowded
because the authorities have refused to release detainees.

Meanwhile, in its annual Trafficking in Persons Report 2009 released in
June, the US State Department put Malaysia back on the Tier 3 blacklist
for its record of abuse and exploitation of migrant workers. Malaysia
joins 16 other countries including Burma, North Korea, Sudan and Zimbabwe
on the blacklist.

The report accused Malaysia authorities of deporting Burmese detainees to
the Thai-Malaysia border and selling them to human traffickers, who then
demanded ransoms for their release.

If payments were not made, the victims would be forced to work as slave
labor on fishing boats in Thailand and Indonesia, and women could be
forced to work as prostitutes in brothels.

Malaysian authorities have disputed the report’s conclusions.

According to the Kuala Lumpur-based Burma Workers’ Rights Protection
Committee, about 500,000 Burmese migrants work in Malaysia, legally and
illegally.

____________________________________
INTERNATIONAL

July 2, Agence France Presse
UN chief says Myanmar mission 'very difficult'

UN chief Ban Ki-moon said Thursday he was embarking on a "very difficult"
mission to Myanmar aimed at obtaining political results from the ruling
military, but pledged to do his best.

Speaking to reporters in Singapore on the eve of his trip, Ban said he had
not received any confirmation that he would be allowed to meet with Aung
San Suu Kyi, Myanmar's jailed pro-democracy icon and opposition leader.

He said he will raise the issue of meeting with the Nobel laureate when he
meets with Myanmar junta leader Senior General Than Shwe in the remote
administrative capital of Naypyidaw on Friday.

"I will try to meet with representatives of all registered political
parties including Aung San Suu Kyi, that's my hope," he told journalists
here after a dinner hosted in his honour by former prime minister Goh Chok
Tong.

"But I have to raise this issue with the Senior General directly, in
person. I have not received any firm confirmation, but through (UN special
envoy Ibrahim) Gambari I have clearly conveyed my wish to meet with Aung
San Suu Kyi."

Ban underscored the challenges during his visit, which the New York-based
Human Rights Watch warned would be a "huge failure" if he fails to secure
the release of Aung San Suu Kyi.

"It is a very difficult mission," Ban said.

"But in order to bring changes to Myanmar in the political reconciliation
and democratisation (process), we need to do our best."

Ban said he was aware that he was visiting Myanmar "under certain
uncertainties", apparently referring to the resumption on Friday of Aung
San Suu Kyi's trial for allegedly breaching the terms of her house arrest.

She faces up to five years in prison if convicted.

"But I am going to convey the concerns of the international community
about the slow pace of the political reconciliation and democratisation
process," he added.

As well as Senior General Than Shwe, Ban said he will also meet with Prime
Minister Thein Sein and representatives of all registered political
parties and former armed groups.

"Through my meetings... I will convey exactly what the international
community expects and wishes (regarding) the way they want to see changes
in Myanmar."

He will also visit the region devastated by Cyclone Nargis last year to
see recovery efforts.

Ban arrived in Singapore on Thursday from Japan and has already met Prime
Minister Lee Hsien Loong, according to the city-state's foreign ministry.

____________________________________

July 2, Voice of America
Burmese exiles, rights groups hold hope for UN Chief's visit

United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon visits Burma Friday to push
for the release of political prisoners and national reconciliation. His
visit comes as Burma's military rulers seek to jail democracy leader Aung
San Suu Kyi. Rights groups and Burma's government in exile hope the U.N.
chief's intervention will make a difference.

The U.N. Secretary-General says his trip to Burma this week is first of
all aimed at securing the release of political prisoners, including
democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi.

The widely criticized trial of the Nobel Prize winner is set to resume
Friday as Mr. Ban arrives for talks with Burma's military rulers.

He acknowledged the sensitivity in the timing of his trip.

"While being conscious of this concern of international community, I'll
try to use this visit as an opportunity to raise strongest possible terms
and convey the concerns of the international community of the United
Nations to the highest authorities of Myanmar government," said Ban.

Aung San Suu Kyi was arrested for allowing an unauthorized visitor to stay
at her home. If convicted, she could face five years in prison.

It was not clear if Mr. Ban will meet with Aung San Suu Kyi.

U.N. envoys have long pushed the Burmese government to release all
political prisoners and allow democratic reforms.

But in the past two years, the number of dissidents locked up has nearly
doubled to more than 2,000.

Benjamin Zawacki, a Burma researcher for Amnesty International in Bangkok,
says the arrests are part of the military's plan to stamp out opposition
ahead of next year's controversial elections.

"This is clearly what's driving them to keep Daw Aung San Suu Kyi behind
bars or at least out of the way," said Zawacki. "They've effectively
locked up the opposition and thrown away the key. And, I say thrown away
the key because they've sentenced them to extraordinarily long prison
terms and sent them to the furthest borders of the country."

Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy won Burma's last
elections in 1990 but the military never allowed them to take power.

The government has since kept her under house arrest for more than 13 years.

The military has also cracked down on ethnic rebels, sending thousands of
civilians fleeing into refugee camps in Thailand.

Zin Linn, a spokesman for the Burmese government in exile in Thailand,
says Mr. Ban should push Burma's leaders, known as the State Peace and
Development Council, to negotiate with the NLD leader. He says Aung San
Suu Kyi is the only one who can bring together Burma's various ethnic
groups.

"The most important thing is he should suggest SPDC's chief to sit down
with Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and have a consultation for the betterment of
the country," said Zin Linn. "Without this, the consequences may not be a
good one."

Burma's government has planned elections for 2010 as part of what it calls
a road map to democracy. But the army also forced through a constitution
that guarantees its grip on power regardless of election results.

A senior British official in Rangoon, who did not wish to be named because
of political sensitivities, told VOA the issue is not what Mr. Ban can
achieve on this visit, but rather to what extent the military is willing
to embrace change.

"I think the regime at the top are genuinely in some state of indecision
on this," said Ban. "Because, if they really just wanted to go ahead with
the road map without any changes they could have done so a long time ago,
and declared the election law and set out the precise terms under which
these would be held. And, the fact that these are not out in the open
means that there's still room for them to reconsider what they need to do
to make it far more inclusive and credible in the eyes of the world."

The U.N. Secretary-General's previous visit to Burma followed a
devastating cyclone last year, when he helped convince the government to
open up to foreign aid.

Burma was heavily criticized for not allowing foreign aid for several
weeks while millions suffered in the wake of the deadly storm.

This time, democracy supporters hope Mr. Ban will help convince Burma's
leaders to open up their prisons.

____________________________________

July 2, Jakarta Post
UK embassy to display giant Suu Kyi image

The British embassy in Jakarta will display a giant image of jailed
Myanmar democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi to call for her release and that
of other political prisoners in the military-ruled country.

The image will be projected onto a banner installed at the perimeter of
Bundaran HI traffic circle in Central Jakarta from Thursday until
Saturday, the embassy said in a statement released Thursday.

The projection will start at sunset.

The initiative is being launched as Suu Kyi’s trial resumes in Myanmar on
Friday; United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon is scheduled to visit
the country also on Friday.

“The UK Government believes it is essential that progress is made during
the Secretary-General's visit in laying the groundwork for free and fair
elections in Burma in 2010,” the statement said.

“The visit will offer an opportunity for the Burmese regime to respond to
the many calls for the release of all political prisoners, including Aung
San Suu Kyi; and to allow the start of a genuinely inclusive political
dialogue involving the opposition and minority groups.”

British chargé d'Affaires in Jakarta Matthew Rous said Myanmar’s neighbors
had a duty to call loudly for Suu Kyi’s release.

“I am greatly encouraged by the fact that Indonesia's voice is being heard
so loudly and clearly. I hope the British Embassy's initiative will help
us all to keep Aung Sang Suu Kyi's image in front of our eyes during this
hugely important visit," he said.

____________________________________
OPINION / OTHER

July 2, Wall Street Journal
U.N. mission to nowhere – Bertil Lintner

There is little hope for a release of Burmese opposition leader Aung San
Suu Kyi when United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon visits the
country tomorrow. So far, the ruling military junta has ignored all calls
by the international community for a negotiated solution to the country's
political problems. Mr. Ban's visit will follow eight previous visits by
U.N. envoy Ibrahim Gambari -- all of which failed to achieve anything but
a few cosmetic changes and publicity stunts. Once the dust has settled, it
has always been business as usual.

The fundamental flaw in the U.N.'s approach to Burma is that it fails to
take into account how transitions from authoritarianism to more
pluralistic societies have occurred in Asia. At a U.N. press briefing June
29, a spokesman said Mr. Ban plans to focus on three issues during his
visit to Burma: the resumption of dialogue between the junta and the
opposition, a process of "national reconciliation," and the creation of "a
condition conducive to credible elections in 2010."

However, it would be difficult to "resume" a dialogue that has never
begun. The junta has never mentioned "national reconciliation" in its
announcements to the people of Burma -- only "national reconsolidation,"
code for perpetuating military rule without the participation of the
opposition. The belief that the leader of the junta, Gen. Than Shwe, and
Ms. Suu Kyi would sit down and discuss the country's future is outright
naïve.

History has shown authoritarian regimes never negotiate away their hold on
power. They crumble when someone inside the establishment refuses to carry
out certain orders. Some observers liken Burma to South Africa, where
negotiations did lead to democratization, but this comparison is
misleading. South Africa had white minority rule over a black and colored
majority. It was not a military dictatorship even remotely comparable with
Burma's political structure.

A better comparison for future political scenarios in Burma might be found
in the Philippines or in Indonesia. Philippine dictator Ferdinand Marcos
fell in early 1986 when then-defense minister, Juan Ponce Enrile, and
Fidel Ramos, then head of the Philippine Constabulary, refused to obey
orders to suppress massive demonstrations in Manila and elsewhere. They
sided with the opposition -- and Marcos had to flee the country. Similarly
in Indonesia in May 1998, troops refused to storm the parliamentary
buildings in Jakarta that had been occupied by pro-democracy students and
other activists. At first, heavily armed troops surrounded the complex --
and then they left. The chain of events in Indonesia are more obscure than
in the Philippines, but the withdrawal of troops from the parliament
marked the beginning of the end of the rule of the old dictator, Suharto.
A transitional period followed which eventually led to the establishment
of functioning democracy in Indonesia.

South Korea's democratic transition was also catalyzed by defectors from
inside the government. In 1979 the country's powerful intelligence chief
Kim Jae-gyu assassinated then President Park Chung-hee, for which Kim was
in turn executed in 1980. The South Korea government spent several years
trying to suppress the country's pro-democracy movement, culminating with
a massacre in the city of Gwangju in May of 1980. But in the end South
Korea became a thriving democracy -- and the assassination of the
authoritarian Park marked the beginning of the end of the old regime.

In Taiwan, democracy came after years of antigovernment street
demonstrations throughout the 1980s. The final transition to democracy was
comparatively smooth. But Taiwan is unique: It has to survive in the
shadow of China, and being a democracy is a strong card it needs to play
in international diplomacy.

The only Asian country where authoritarianism has been replaced by
democracy through dialogue and elections is the Maldives -- but this is a
special case. In October 2008, President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom lost the
election and handed power to Mohammed Nasheed, a pro-democracy activist
and former political prisoner. But even that transition came after violent
protests in 2004 and 2005. The December 2004 tsunami had devastated the
Maldives and turned many against the country's inept leadership. But it
should also be remembered that the Maldives is a small country of just
300,000 inhabitants, and the economy is heavily dependent on tourism and,
by extension, the country's international reputation.

The U.N. has not learned from this history. In nearly two decades, the
U.N. has sent envoy after envoy to Burma, with no consequential results.
The first "independent expert" the U.N. sent to the country to study
violations of human rights was Sadako Ogata, a Japanese professor who
later went on to become the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees. The
report she submitted to the U.N.'s Commission of Human Rights in December
1990, was unusually bland for a rights advocate. General elections had
been held that year in May, resulting in a landslide victory for Ms. Suu
Kyi's National League for Democracy party and Ms. Ogata concluded in her
report that "it is not in dispute that it will be the task of the elected
representatives of the National Assembly to draft a new constitution, on
the basis of which a new government will be formed."

But the assembly was never convened. Instead the government began
arresting elected MPs and three years later formed a "constituent
assembly" consisting of mostly handpicked people to draw up a new
constitution. In subsequent years, a slew of U.N. envoys could do nothing
to change this. Eighteen years later, in May last year, a seriously flawed
referendum was held that "affirmed" that constitution. Parliamentary
elections under this new constitution are scheduled for 2010.

Change in Burma is not going to happen through some kind of U.N.-initiated
dialogue. The country's military regime has on several occasions sent out
"feelers" to various opposition personalities within the country and in
exile, but these moves should be seen in the context of divide-and-rule
rather than some sincere desire to discuss important matters with anyone
outside the generals' own ranks.

While the opposition remains weak and factionalized, the military leaders
have over the years showed a remarkable ability to sort out conflicts
among themselves to maintain unity. The 2010 election is only designed to
institutionalize the present order. Like in other countries in Asia,
change will come when someone within the ruling elite turns against the
top leadership. But, at least for now, there are no signs of such
discontent within Burma's military establishment. This is the bitter
reality and there is little meaning in the U.N.'s false hopes for Burma.

Mr. Lintner is a Swedish journalist based in Thailand and author of
several books on Burma.

____________________________________

July 1, World Politics Review
Burma tests ASEAN's legitimacy – Colby Pacheco

To critics of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), Burma
has long served as proof of the organization's ineffectuality. For
decades, the country's ruling junta has suppressed democracy, oppressed
its people, and ignored global calls to observe human rights. ASEAN member
nations have previously been reluctant to apply economic sanctions to
Burma because of a founding agreement not to intervene in the affairs of
fellow members.

But with the current trial of democracy advocate and opposition leader
Aung San Suu Kyi drawing widespread international condemnation, ASEAN once
again faces a critical test in its quest for legitimacy. The time is now
ripe for ASEAN to pressure the Burmese regime to accept the organization's
governing terms, by cutting off its economic support to the country.
Strategic economic sanctions targeted at Burma could help bring down the
military junta that rules the nation. More importantly, penalizing Burma
will demonstrate to member nations and the world that ASEAN is a
legitimate and effective regional organization.

ASEAN was founded in 1967 to accelerate economic growth, increase social
progress, and foster cultural development in Southeast Asia. Sensitive to
the cultural and political differences in neighboring countries, ASEAN
sought to achieve its stated objectives through mutual respect for the
independence, sovereignty, territorial integrity, and national identity of
all members. These principles, referred to as the "ASEAN Way," are
exemplified in ASEAN's policy of non-interference in the activities of its
member nations.

But recent changes to the exact wording of ASEAN's founding charter now
require member nations to govern according to certain principles --
including the rule of law, the protection of human rights, and the
promotion of social justice. By any measure, the military junta that rules
Burma has not complied with any of the principles described in the ASEAN
charter.

Since its induction into ASEAN in 1997, Burma has been the proverbial
elephant in the room, with member states reluctant to discuss, let alone
confront, the country's regime. Perhaps ASEAN was hoping that
circumstances would improve over time. Unfortunately, the opposite has
proven true: Humanitarian conditions have only deteriorated in Burma over
the last few decades.

In September 2007, the junta ordered soldiers to fire on Buddhist monks,
who were peacefully protesting throughout the country in an appeal for a
more democratic society. After Cyclone Nargis made landfall in southern
Burma in April 2008, the junta blocked large amounts of foreign aid and
disaster relief. Now the government has charged democracy leader Aung San
Suu Kyi with violating the terms of her house arrest. The trial is viewed
as a sham by the international community and serves as a reminder to ASEAN
that the military junta is out of step with its principles.

Suu Kyi and members of Burma's democracy movement have repeatedly called
for international sanctions on the junta. But most countries in the
developed world can do embarrassingly little to punish Burma because of
the lack of ties they maintain. ASEAN nations, on the other hand, are
among Burma's largest trading partners, giving them leverage that Western
nations and international organizations like the United Nations lack.
Thailand alone purchases more than 44 percent of Burma's total output each
year. Exploiting such leverage could pressure the junta to either conform
to the terms of the ASEAN charter or risk regime collapse.

Given that China is Burma's largest non-ASEAN trading partner, it would be
important -- though not vital -- to gain Beijing's support for any
sanctions that ASEAN applies. At current levels, China could likely
continue its trade with Burma without negating the effects of ASEAN
sanctions. Should it choose to increase trade and aid, on the other hand,
China could keep Burma's military regime afloat by itself. But it would
take a substantial increase in its current levels of trade, and would
unambiguously undermine ASEAN sanctions in such a way that China would
have to answer to the international community.

There are many voices within the ASEAN community that decry economic
sanctions targeted at Burma, arguing that they will not affect the leaders
of the junta, but will instead only add to the burdens of the country's
suffering citizens. But a quick glance at the country's budget priorities
demonstrates that this is not the case. Burma's junta, for example, spends
merely 1.4 percent of its GDP on health and education. By putting an end
to the steady stream of income into the junta's pockets, ASEAN can send a
strong message that the organization will not tolerate the deplorable
government of the ruling generals.

In a sign of strengthening resolve, the Singapore government announced
last month that "expelling Burma from ASEAN isn't the way to bring about
reform in the military-ruled nation, even if it tarnishes the group's
credibility." Instead, Singapore ratcheted up its stance on Burma this
past week by declaring, "no new investment without reform." If it follows
through, Singapore could pave the way for other ASEAN governments to
impose economic sanctions on Burma. At the very least, according to some
analysts, Singapore's declaration signals an end to the old, commercially
motivated indulgence of the junta.

If ASEAN can agree to level economic sanctions against the dictatorship,
it can simultaneously pressure the government while putting itself on the
path towards international legitimacy. Continued failure to take action,
on the other hand, could render the organization irrelevant at a time when
regional coordination by a legitimate governing body is needed to address
the challenges of the future. As Burma's chief trading partners and
neighbors, only ASEAN members can apply effective pressure to the
oppressive military regime. Time has run out. ASEAN must finally confront
its most daunting challenge.

Colby Pacheco is a Research Fellow for Asia Chronicle. The views expressed
are his own. He can be reached at research at asiachroniclenews.com.

____________________________________

July 2, Guardian (UK)
Should Ban Ki-moon visit Burma? – Francis Wade

If the secretary general's visit has little impact on the junta, it risks
further damaging the UN's credibility around the world

The UN chief Ban Ki-moon is tiptoeing across a sheet of thin ice as he
makes his way to Naypyidaw this week, with the UN in a precarious position
as it attempts to tackle the Burma problem. He will arrive on Friday for a
two-day visit, during which the military generals may well lower their
shields and allow him to meet Aung San Suu Kyi. If it goes ahead, the
meeting will get a quick thumbs-up from the international community and a
nudge further along the "progress" chart. Much of the world concerned with
the fate of Suu Kyi, indeed the future of Burma, is pinning its hopes on
this most senior of diplomatic visits – it is perhaps a last-gasp effort
at rescuing Suu Kyi from another five years in detention.

Behind the scenes, however, Ban will be nervous. The fears he voiced when
the invitation first arrived from Burma – that his moment with the
generals will be manipulated into a show of legitimacy for one of the
world's most despised regimes – are a realistic prospect. The military
government is notoriously fearful of accepting foreign dignitaries who are
not from its small band of brothers, and thus keeps these trips to a
minimum.

The result is that any such invitation can be used by the government to
give itself a quick cosmetic lift. It briefly loosens the lid on the
pressure cooker that Burma now is, midway through a trial that has brought
international condemnation. It's a diplomatic charade, an illusion of a
concession, and human rights groups across the world have urged Ban not to
go ahead with the visit. Suu Kyi herself told UN envoy Ibrahim Gambari in
February that, while she was willing to meet anyone, she "could not accept
having meetings without achieving any outcome", and thus told Ban to stay
away.

And that is the crux of the situation. Since January 2007, when Ban used
one of his first speeches as UN chief to urge for the release of Burma's
political prisoners, their numbers have doubled. Since he visited in the
wake of cyclone Nargis last May, more than 450 have been added. It is
therefore difficult to keep promoting the idea of dialogue between the
regime and the UN when all the evidence points to its inefficacy. "The UN
has sent many representatives to Burma in the past but none of them has
managed to negotiate a dialogue or bring a solution to the country's
problems," said the head of the Committee Representing the People's
Parliament, Aye Thar Aung, adding that "I don't expect any significant
change to Burma's politics out of Ban Ki-moon's visit."

There has also been the added problem of China. Whenever Burma provokes
international uproar, as it seems to have managed every year for the past
three, it will hide behind its bigger brother, which has the power of veto
in the UN security council. With the Burma issue pitched between the US,
the strongest critic of the Burmese regime, and China, the council is
rendered a mere debating chamber.

This issue became obvious in January 2007 when both China and Russia,
another close ally, vetoed a resolution calling for an end to
state-sanctioned human rights abuses in Burma. The reason, they both
argued, was that Burma didn't threaten international security and
therefore fell outside the council's remit. Nine months later, the UN was
condemned to sit and watch while the Burmese army opened fire on hundreds
of monks demonstrating against a hike in fuel prices, with China's only
suggestion that troops show "restraint".

The UN has, in the words of veteran Burmese journalist Ludu Sein Win,
become "like a toothless tiger" taking on a regime that "doesn't care
about anything apart from holding onto power". Whatever fangs Ban could
have sunk into Burma's generals have been blunted by the China veto and
the fact that there are essentially no consequences for violating a
security council resolution, were one now to be passed on Burma.

Survivors of the Darfur genocide and the Srebrenica massacre, where the UN
was damaged by its inaction, are only too aware of this, which makes Ban
Ki-moon's visit to Burma all the more risky in the face of a population
desperate for a positive outcome. Furthermore, the politically and
emotionally sensitive timing of the trip, midway through the Suu Kyi
trial, brings added risk and added pressure for results. If he comes away
without any, he is likely to further undermine the UN's credibility in
Burma and in the rest of the world.

Poignantly, during a speech earlier this month to mark the 100-year
anniversary of the birth of U Thant, a Burmese national and Asia's first
UN secretary general, who took office in the decade following the start of
military rule, Ban spoke of the "sad irony that U Thant's vision of
democracy has not been realised in his own country".

While the current UN chief may not have the same emotional bonds to Burma
as his predecessor, the expectation from inside Burma now weighing down
upon his visit will be equally heavy. Of course no-one expects to see
results by Sunday, but they will want them soon, and they will want them
to be substantial. Any minor concessions are a point to the regime, and a
loss for an institution clawing for credibility not just in Burma, but in
Africa, the Middle East and other parts of the world. Otherwise the
international community, and even Ban himself, must admit that such a
visit can do more harm than good.

____________________________________
INTERVIEW

July 2, Mizzima News
Will Ban Ki-moon’s trip to Burma be fruitful?

Ban Ki-moon, United Nations Secretary General will visit Burma on Friday.
And during his two-day stay, Ban has sought a meeting with Nobel Peace
Laureate Aung San Suu Kyi and the ruling junta’s military Chief Senior
General Than Shwe.

According to a UN statement, the world leader will urge Burma to implement
three changes - the release of Aung San Suu Kyi and other political
prisoners, resumption of dialogue for national reconciliation and to
create a political ambience and legal frame work conducive to holding a
credible election in 2010.

To analyse the UN chief’s visit to Burma and whether he will be able to
achieve his goals, Mizzima’s Editor Sein Win talks to Dr. Thaung Tun, the
UN representative of Burma’s government in exile – the National Coalition
Government of Union of Burma.

Q: As an envoy to the UN, what is the expectation you have of Ban
Ki-moon’s visit to Burma?

A: Ban Ki-moon’s visit to Burma is an important stage for the United
Nations in its efforts to facilitate a process of national reconciliation
in Burma. The involvement of the Secretary General himself, in trying to
help resolve Burma’s problems show that Burma has become a hot issue in
the political agenda of the international community.

After Daw Aung San Suu Kyi was charged for violating the terms of her
house arrest by sheltering an uninvited American man, who swam to her lake
side home and stayed there for two nights, not only leaders from western
democracies but also regional countries including the ASEAN (Association
of Southeast Asian Nations) and China have called for her release and for
national reconciliation and democratic reforms in the country.

With such changes, the visit of Ban can be viewed as a step forward and it
is a good prospect to address the political problems in Burma.

Q: Do you hope that Aung San Suu Kyi will be freed, which is one of the
important steps for solving Burma’s problem?

A: As far as I know, I believe the Secretary General will set his priority
in discussing the release of Aung San Suu Kyi. We need to view Ban’s visit
as a process not as a onetime visit. We need to see it as the UN’s process
of mediating in the political problems in Burma. Therefore, there is
interconnection between the three factors that Ban has said he will raise
during his visit.

Q: Some said the junta has agreed to host Ban Ki-moon because of pressure
from China. Do you think the Burmese regime will listen?

A: For whatever reason the junta may be accepting Ban’s visit, it is a
first step. And it gives the UN an opportunity to deal with the regime and
talk to them. As I have mentioned earlier, if we look at it as a process,
then regional countries must continue to maintain diplomatic pressure
until there is a response by the junta.

Q: Some critics have pointed out that the visit of Ban Ki-moon might
legitimize the trial against Daw Aung San Suu Kyi. What is your view on
that?

A: The Secretary General has said the purpose of his visit is for the
release of Aung San Suu Kyi and other political prisoners. I remember that
he had mentioned about it through diplomatic channels and in a press
release. The trial against Daw Aung San Suu Kyi has created a negative
impact on national reconciliation as she is the main partner for a
dialogue. Since she is essential for dialogue, the visit of Ban will not
legitimize the ongoing trial.

Q: Opposition groups and pro-democracy groups have long called for a
dialogue but the regime does not seem to pay any attention. Why is it so
do you think?

A: Dialogue is a diplomatic means. For two sides to engage in dialogue
several other factors are needed. Especially, for the military regime that
holds power there must be a driving force that will push them to a
dialogue. The situation must compel them for having a dialogue.

But Burma still lacks such a situation. And if we are to sum-up, the
international community is still divided in their approach to Burma, and
there is a lack of unity and collective force. And because of these
divisions, the UN Security Council could not apply strong pressure that
could result in a change in Burma.

Another factor is we, as pro-democracy groups, also need to act more for
changes inside our country. I think we still lack unity, and could not
pressure the regime to implement changes and we also could not inject the
sense of the need for change in the military.

Q: Despite several visits by representatives of the UN to Burma, there
have been no concrete changes. Do you think the role of UN is still
important in trying to solve Burma’s problem?

A: We have all seen that the UN’s performance on Burma’s problem is not
effective yet. However, the UN is the only body which can legally
intervene and address the problems in sovereign countries. It is
impossible to solve the political problems of Burma by political means
without the UN.