BurmaNet News, July 24, 2009

[Editor]

July 24, 2009, Issue #3761


INSIDE BURMA
AP: Aung San Suu Kyi’s trial adjourned to Monday
Mizzima: Demand for Suu Kyi’s release – ‘nonsense and unreasonable’:
State-run newspaper
Myanmar Times: 3DF accepts grant proposals

BUSINESS / TRADE
The Telegraph, India: Mizoram pact to start bilateral trade

HEALTH / AIDS
Irrawaddy: Flu drugs shortages in Rangoon
Mizzima: Rangoon accounts for over 3,700 dengue patients annually

ASEAN
Thai Press Reports: Thai PM says Myanmar not to be excluded from ASEAN

INTERNATIONAL
DVB: United States approves new Burma sanctions - Francis Wade
AFP: Timor leader urges Australia to push harder on Myanmar
DVB: US journalist upsets Burma exiles - Thurein Soe

OPINION / OTHER
Irrawaddy: Burma’s opposition must wage proxy fight - Min Zin
Asia Times: Why Myanmar's elections will work - James Gomez

PRESS RELEASE
USCB: Activists laud U.S. Congress for passing Burma sanctions, ask
President Obama to organize UN Security Council action
Senator Mitch McConnell: Bill to renew sanctions against the Burmese
Government passes Senate

____________________________________
INSIDE BURMA

July 24, Associated Press
Aung San Suu Kyi’s trial adjourned to Monday

Rangoon — Burma's pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi was "absolutely
dissatisfied" that her trial was adjourned Friday because it will give the
prosecution more time to prepare its case, her lawyer said.

Suu Kyi's trial was postponed until Monday after her defense gave a
30-page closing statement, said one of her lawyers, Nyan Win.

Suu Kyi, 64, is charged with violating the terms of her house arrest by
harboring an uninvited American man who swam to her lakeside home and
stayed for two days. She faces a possible five-year prison sentence.

"Daw Aung San Suu Kyi said she was absolutely dissatisfied with the
arrangement—giving more time for the prosecution to prepare the argument,"
said Nyan Win, using the respectful term "daw" for the Nobel Peace Prize
laureate.

Nyan Win said that to ensure fairness, the usual practice is for courts to
allow both parties to give their closing arguments on the same day.

On Monday, Suu Kyi's two female companions, who are also on trial, will
give their statements, and the lawyer for American John William Yettaw,
who is charged with trespassing, is to present his argument.

The verdicts are expected sometime next month.

One diplomat attending the trial, speaking on condition of anonymity
citing protocol, said Suu Kyi looked all right in court. "She was well and
in good spirits. She was seen joking with her lawyers," the diplomat said.

The defense has not contested the facts of the case but argues that the
relevant law has been misapplied by the authorities and that Suu Kyi was
charged under a constitution abolished two decades ago. They also assert
that the security guards who ensure Suu Kyi remained inside her compound
should be held responsible for any intrusion on her property.

Security was tight around Insein Prison—where Suu Kyi is being held and
the trial is ongoing—with roads blocked with barbed wire barricades manned
by police. Seven truckloads of riot police were deployed around the
compound and pro-government supporters were seen gathering near the area.

Diplomats from Britain, France, Germany, Norway and Italy who had earlier
requested access were allowed into the courtroom for Friday's session, a
diplomat said on condition of anonymity citing protocol. It was the third
time during the mostly closed-door trial that such access has been
granted.

The resumption of the trial came after US, European and Asian
officials—including the top diplomat from Burma—wound up a conference on
Thursday in neighboring Thailand that put Burma's human rights record in
the spotlight.

The trial has drawn condemnation from the international community and Suu
Kyi's local supporters, who worry the ruling junta has found an excuse to
keep her behind bars through elections planned for next year.

At an Asia-Pacific security forum on Thursday, US Secretary of State
Hillary Clinton offered Burma the prospect of better relations with the
United States, but said that depended in part on the fate of Suu Kyi.

Burmese state media rejected the criticism on Thursday, accusing those
calling for Suu Kyi's release of "interference."

"Demanding release of Daw Suu Kyi means showing reckless disregard for the
law," said the editorial in the English-language New Light of Myanmar, the
military junta's mouthpiece. "Daw" is a term of respect in Burma.

Also on trial, and facing the same charges as Suu Kyi, are two female
members of her political party who were her sole companions under house
arrest.

The trial started May 18. The court had approved 23 prosecution witnesses,
of which 14 took the stand. Only two out of four defense witnesses were
allowed.

Yettaw has pleaded not guilty and explained in court that he had a dream
that Suu Kyi would be assassinated and he had gone to warn her.

Suu Kyi's opposition party won national elections in 1990, but Burma's
generals refused to relinquish power. Suu Kyi, a winner of the Nobel Peace
Prize, has been under house arrest for 14 of the past 20 years.

____________________________________

July 24, Mizzima News
Demand for Suu Kyi’s release – ‘nonsense and unreasonable’: State-run
newspaper - Ko Wild

Chiang Mai – The demand to release Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and political
prisoners is “nonsense and unreasonable,” said Burma’s state-run newspaper
the ‘New Light of Myanmar’ in its issues published today and yesterday.

The regime’s stance published in the newspaper is in opposition to the
views of the ‘National League for Democracy’ (NLD), the UN Secretary
General, the Association of South East Asia Nations (ASEAN) and the US.

The government has said many times that there are no political prisoners
in Myanmar, the writer ‘Lu Thit’ said in his article.

The UN Secretary General Mr. Ban Ki-moon visited Burma on July 3 and 4 and
called for releasing Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and other political prisoners
during his visit.

The ASEAN on its part issued a statement calling for the release of
political prisoners at the regional forum held in Phuket, Thailand.

Meanwhile the US Secretary of State Ms. Hillary Clinton has said that
US-Burma relations will be severely affected unless Daw Aung San Suu Kyi
is released.

But the state-run ‘New Light of Myanmar’ says, ‘They are, indeed, the ones
who are serving their terms in accordance with the law for their harming
stability and peace of the State, and committing other crimes, breaching
the existing laws’.

The newspaper further alleges that the demand made by NLD for reviewing
the 2008 constitution through dialogue is nothing but their efforts to
disrupt and delay the seven-step roadmap being pursued by the junta at any
cost.

The NLD General Secretary Daw Aung San Suu Kyi is facing trial under
section 22 of the ‘Law Safeguarding the State from the danger of
Subversive Elements’ and is charged for flouting the terms of her
internment order after the US national John William Yettaw intruded into
her lakeside residence.

The final argument from both sides - the prosecution and the defence was
slated for today but the trial was adjourned.

The NLD registered a landslide victory in 1990 general elections but the
junta refused to hand over power.

The NLD has repeatedly asked that the 1990 general election results be
recognized to avoid bad precedence in Burmese politics.

But the newspaper said yesterday and today that the 1990 general elections
result is out of date, null and void. The people will not look back at the
results, as it is out of date and over 19 years old, it said.

Moreover, the NLD left the National Convention organized by the SPDC so
the demand for a ‘dialogue’ is ‘totally nonsense’, it added.

In his article, the writer ‘Lu Thit’ said that Daw Aung San Suu Kyi’s case
is a legal proceeding concerning the trial court. She must face punishment
in accordance with the law if found guilty, and she will be acquitted if
found not guilty by the court.

But the international community including the UN and Burmese opposition
forces, lawyers and ethnic leaders claimed that the junta itself is
violating international law and even the law of the land, by arresting and
giving long prison sentences to dissidents and by sending them to remote
prisons away from their homes.

The ‘Association for Assistance to Political Prisoners –Burma’ (AAPPB)
said that there are over 2,100 political prisoners who are languishing in
Burmese prisons for their political beliefs.

____________________________________

July 20-26, Myanmar Times
3DF accepts grant proposals - Juliet Shwe Gaung

The Three Disease Fund (3DF) is calling for grant proposals from qualified
healthcare organisations involved in the fight against malaria,
tuberculosis and HIV in Myanmar.

In its third round of grants since 2007, 3DF plans to distribute US$14
million to qualified organisations in Myanmar, with a minimum grant amount
of $250,000 for each group, said a statement released last week by the
fund.

“The grants under round three are expected to run from December 1, 2009,
to December 31, 2011,” said Ms Denise Jeanmonod, the fund’s communication
officer in Myanmar.

“This new round of grants aims at scaling up direct service provision with
particular focus on lifesaving medicines such as ARV (anti-retroviral) and
first-line anti-TB drugs, as well as community-based malaria control in
hard-to-reach areas,” she said.

Proposals must be submitted before 4pm on August 31, and must be addressed
to Three Diseases Fund, Myanmar, Round III Proposal at the Three Diseases
Fund Management Office, 137/1 Than Lwin Road, Kamaryut townsip, Yangon.

Potential grantees – international and local NGOs, UN organisations or
private sector and professional associations – must provide evidence of
authorisation to work in Myanmar, and must have a minimum of two years of
experience and a proven track record in any of the three disease program
areas in Myanmar.

Applicants should also have the capacity to manage the minimum individual
grant of $250,000 and a willingness to accept 3DF contractual
requirements.
A complete set of proposal documents in English language is available
online at 3dfund.org/round3/.

The Three Disease Fund was launched in 2006 to fill an urgent need for
grants that were suspended when the Global Fund to Fight AIDS,
Tuberculosis and Malaria pulled out of Myanmar.

http://www.mmtimes.com/no480/n005.htm

____________________________________
BUSINESS / TRADE

July 23, The Telegraph, India
Mizoram pact to start bilateral trade

Silchar - The Mizoram government, in an attempt to establish a durable
trade link with Bangladesh, inked a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with
the India-Bangladesh Chamber of Commerce and Industries (IBCCI) at the end
of the daylong Mizoram trade and investment conclave held yesterday in
Aizawl.

An official source in Aizawl today said the MoU was signed between IBCCI
president Abdul Matlib Ahmed and Mizoram trade and commerce secretary
Esther Ruatkimi.

Both the sides, the source said, had agreed to send across the border
items that the other country needs at low tariff. While the Mizoram
traders would be able to send turmeric, chilli pepper, ginger and bamboo,
which are in high demand across the border, the Bangladesh traders would
be able to sell melamine products, fish and coal to Mizoram.

Senior officials from New Delhi, Guwahati, Dhaka and Myanmar were present
in the conclave and discussed ways to improve trade links, which would be
mutually beneficial to the three countries.

Mizoram chief minister Lalthanhawla, inaugurated the meet and said it as
an outstanding event as it would help take stock of the primary areas of
exchange of goods among the adjoining nations. It would also try to focus
on the Look East policy of both the Myanmar and Indian governments, he
added.

Myanmar’s first secretary (commercial) in New Delhi, Mohammad Omar Faruqe,
the director general of the Indian chamber of commerce, Rajeev Singh,
North Eastern Development Finance Corporation Limited general manager A.M.
Sharma, the joint director general (foreign trade) of Union ministry of
commerce, Sanjeev Nandwani, and North Eastern Council secretary U.K.
Sangma, among others, attended the meet.

Addressing the conclave, the first secretary of the Union of Myanmar in
New Delhi, Kyaw Nyunt Lwin, stressed the need for close cooperation
between India and Myanmar to improve bilateral trade. He said while
Myanmar can send teak and timber, pulses, fish and sesame, his country
would look forward to India for items such as marine and forest products,
machinery, edible oils, cement, fertiliser and consumer goods.

He expressed hope that trade between the countries would improve after the
extension of the broad gauge railway line between Kaley and Tamu in
Myanmar, on the borders of Mizoram and Manipur and the Kaladan multi-modal
project envisaging the linking of the Sittwe port in Myanmar to the other
Indian ports on the Bay of Bengal.

____________________________________
HEALTH / AIDS

July 24, Irrawaddy
Flu drugs shortages in Rangoon - Aung Thet Wine

Rangoon—While stocks of preventive medicines for influenza are diminishing
in Rangoon, prices are soaring, with anti-seasonal flu injections costing
up to 200,000 kyat (US $200) at some clinics.

Imported prophylactic drugs such as "Tamiflu" and "Vaxigrip," which are
commonly used as preventative medicines against seasonal influenza (virus
types A and B), are in high demand because of the H1N1 (swine flu)
outbreak, which was declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization
(WHO) on June 11.

Since Burma’s Health Ministry officially announced the incidence of swine
flu infections in some people returning from abroad, some Rangoon
residents have rushed to buy prophylactic flu medicines in panic, causing
prices to sky-rocket, sources close to Rangoon-based drug companies said.

Normally, a vial of seasonal anti-flu prophylactic, which can used for
injections, sells for 18,000 kyat ($18), the sources said. However, in
recent days, pharmacies and medical supply stores have raised the price to
between 50,000 and 100,000 kyat ($50 - $100).

At markets where previously Tamiflu was selling for 50,000 kyat per
10-capsule box, it is now priced at $60 to $100.

However, the “flu fear factor” has attracted some of the most unscrupulous
elements in Rangoon who are using the pandemic for profit.

Speaking to The Irrawaddy, a medical practitioner from Shwe Bon Tha Street
said, “"Vaxigrip is just an immunization medicine for normal influenza,
but it is being sold to the public as a prophylactic to swine flu.”

A government doctor confirmed that well-off families in Rangoon are buying
Vaxigrip and injection shots from private clinics in the belief it will
protect them from swine flu.

"In most of hospitals and clinics, prophylactic medicines for swine flu
are running out now and some manipulative clinics are making profits from
the situation, by injecting vaccines at 100,000 to 200,000 kyat a doze,”
he said.

Some well-known private hospitals and clinics, such as Asia Taw-Win, Shwe
Gon Taing, Ba-Ho-Si, Sakura and Pan Hlaing, are reportedly in shortage of
anti-flu medicines.

"But you can get so-called anti-flu injections at clinics on Mogul (Shwe
Bon Thar) Street for 200,000 kyat a shot," a general physician claimed.

Thet Pai Soe Company is the sole agent for importing Vaxigrip, a
French-made flu-shot for seasonal influenza, but an official from the
company said it couldn't handle the demand and could import any more this
year.

Meanwhile, a physician from Rangoon General Hospital warned that any
swine-flu drugs should be taken under supervision of a respected doctor
and that the public should be aware that the drugs have several side
effects.

"The drug must be taken in accordance with a physician's prescription,” he
said. “The drugs often cause side effects such as lethargy, diarrhea,
nausea, vomiting and weakness.”

In recent weeks, the first case of swine flu infection was found in Burma
in a 13-year-old girl, who was returning from Singapore. There are now a
total of four cases in the country, the Health Ministry has said, but to
date no one has died from the disease.

____________________________________

July 24, Mizzima News
Rangoon accounts for over 3,700 dengue patients annually - Myo Thein

Rangoon–There were over 3,700 dengue fever patients annually in Rangoon
Division alone, of whom about 30 patients died, statistics released by the
Burmese Ministry of Health said.

The statistics compiled by the Ministry of Health said 18,568 patients
were afflicted with dengue fever in five years from 2004 to 2009, of whom
151 died. The rate of affliction by the virus and death was the highest in
the monsoon season - June, July and August, the statistics said.

The highest number of dengue patients recorded was in 2005. There were
5,621 cases and 40 died. In 2007, the number of cases dropped to 4,948 but
54 died from dengue. It is the highest death rate during these five years.

The statistics said there were 838 dengue patients between January 1 to
June 23, 2009, of whom six died.

Among 45 townships in Rangoon Division, the densely populated and suburban
areas such as Thaketa, Thingangyun, Tamwe, Hlinetharyar, Hlegu, Taikgyi
and Shwepyithar have the highest rate of dengue fever cases annually.

This year too, the townships in the outskirts have the highest incidence
of dengue in Rangoon Division indicating that the healthcare system in
these townships is poor.

The statistics is updated till June 23 but the highest incidence is in
June during the six-month period with 349 cases and four deaths reported.

Some have cast their doubts on the statistics compiled by the ministry as
they think the figure does not reflect the reality.

A doctor from the Health Ministry admitted that there are flaws and
weaknesses in compiling the dengue fever statistics based on local
dispensary units, which are incomplete and conceal some facts and figures.

Though the highest incidence is yet to be collected for this year, it will
not be less than the 2008 rate of incidence and deaths, he said.

The incidence of dengue fever cases in Rangoon from 2004 till date:

Year                                     cases reported / death

2004                                                 2,865/ 8
2005                                                5,621/ 40
2006                                               1,530/ 18
2007                                               4,948/ 54
2008                                              3,604/ 31
2009 (till June 23)                            838/ 6

____________________________________
ASEAN

July 24, Thai Press Reports
Thai PM says Myanmar not to be excluded from ASEAN

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva indicated that ASEAN was not willing to
discharge Myanmar from the group and would not be able to force its
government to release the opposition leader, Ms Aung San Suu Kyi.

After US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton urged the ASEAN members to
pressure the Myanmar government for a release of Ms Suu Kyi, Thai Prime
Minister Abhisit insisted that Ms Clinton was only expressing the US's
standpoint on democracy. He then clarified that neither ASEAN nor Thailand
had the authority to intervene in Myanmar's internal issues, especially
when the nation had decided to continue its own legal process against Ms
Suu Kyi.

The Thai premier also stressed that there were currently inadequate
reasons to expel Myanmar from ASEAN as demanded by the US. He stated that
ASEAN opposed the concept since it would further isolate the country while
hoping that the US would understand.

In addition, Mr Abhisit reiterated that ASEAN and western countries shared
the same ideology towards democracy and thus called for Myanmar to use
this opportunity to reconsider its decision for better relationships with
ASEAN and the world.

____________________________________
INTERNATIONAL

July 24, Democratic Voice of Burma
United States approves new Burma sanctions - Francis Wade

The US Senate has approved a one-year renewal of sanctions banning the
import of Burmese goods to the US, and will now look to Congress for an
extension to the boycott.

The decision belonged to the Senate Finance Committee, which has
jurisdiction over United States’ international trade.

The current resolution on Burma, contained in the 2003 Burmese Freedom and
Democracy Act, authorizes Congress to renew the import ban each year
through to 2012.

"As long as the Burmese junta continues to engage in gross human rights
violations and govern its people with an iron fist, the United States
should continue to stand in support of human rights, and on behalf of the
Burmese people," said Senate Finance Chairman Max Baucus.

"These international trade sanctions, together with the sanctions imposed
by several of our trading partners, put necessary pressure on the junta so
they, in turn, stop the mistreatment of their own people."

The renewal of US sanctions has been a likely decision since May, when
Burma’s opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi was brought to court on charges
of breaching conditions of her house arrest.

The trial marked a return to the prevailing US attitude towards Burma,
which had deviated slightly in February when US Secretary of State Hillary
Clinton spoke of the need to rethink policy in light of the failure of
sanctions.

Clinton however again fueled speculation on Wednesday that a new dawn was
approaching in US-Burma relations when she spoke of the potential for the
US to engage and invest in Burma if Suu Kyi were to be released.

The US has also expressed concern about the potential for Burma and North
Korea to trade in nuclear material and information, following
strengthening ties between the two pariah states.

Speaking on the sidelines of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations
(ASEAN) Regional Forum, which ends today in Thailand, Burmese foreign
minister Nyan Win reportedly told Clinton that Burma would adhere to a UN
resolution requiring member states to search suspicious North Korea cargo.

Clinton had earlier urged the 10-member ASEAN bloc, which follows a path
of non-interference in domestic affairs of member states, to expel Burma
if it fails to carry out democratic reforms.

____________________________________

July 24, Agence France Presse
Timor leader urges Australia to push harder on Myanmar

East Timor President Jose Ramos-Horta on Friday urged Australia to learn
from the past and push harder for reform in military-ruled Myanmar.

The Nobel Peace laureate said Australia had turned a "blind eye to blatant
human rights abuses" during Indonesia's 24-year occupation of East Timor
and should not repeat the mistake.

"Australia can, working together with Indonesia for instance... help bring
an end to that ugly situation in Myanmar," he told reporters.

Australia has imposed financial sanctions and visa restrictions on members
of the regime in Myanmar, formerly known as Burma, and banned all defence
exports to the country.

It also called last month for the release of Nobel laureate Aung San Suu
Kyi, the democracy icon who has spent most of the past 19 years in
detention.

But Ramos-Horta said "occasional statements" were not enough and urged
Australia to apply consistent pressure for reform in the country.

"It's been going on for over two decades with the imprisonment of Aung San
Suu Kyi and there is no light at the end of the tunnel," he said.

"Here is where Australia can be more proactive and not only be happy with
occasional statements."

Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy won a landslide election
victory in 1990 that the junta, in power since 1962, refused to recognise.

____________________________________

July 24, Democratic Voice of Burma
US journalist upsets Burma exiles - Thurein Soe

An article published in the US and reprinted in a Burmese state-run
newspaper that appeared to criticise Aung San Suu Kyi’s political tactics
has been met with alarm by Burmese politicians and exiled activists.

The Huffington Post, a liberal online magazine based in New York, last
week carried an opinion piece entitled ‘The Future of Burma Cannot Be Tied
to Aung San Suu Kyi’.

The author, Virginia M Moncrieff, said that Suu Kyi’s imprisonment has
only added to her “near-secular saint status”, a tactic that is
“self-defeating”.

She followed by saying that her policy of sanctions “is fundamentally
flawed” and that isolating the regime “only helps the junta reverse
further into mad "behind-the-wall" strategies”.

The result, according to Moncrieff, was that “she is penalizing the very
people she aims to assist”.

Sections of the article were republished yesterday in the government
mouthpiece Myanma Ahlin newspaper, although Moncrieff’s attempts to
balance the piece with criticism and praise became the victim of underhand
editing.

Sentences such as “what has happened to this extraordinary woman is of
course criminal”, were changed to “this woman has broken the law”, while
the ending, which called for Suu Kyi’s release, was absent.

Yet the article still provoked a reaction from some members of the Burmese
exile community, who are closely following the Suu Kyi trial, which ends
today.

“There are groups and individuals working to bring democracy to the
country and Daw Aung San Suu Kyi is a leading role model for all these
people,” said Aye Thar Aung, secretary of the Committee Representing the
People’s Parliament (CRPP).

Khin Omar, head of the Network for Democracy and Development who read both
versions of the article, said that she “completely disagreed” with the
criticisms of Suu Kyi, particularly those that claim she doesn’t favour
negotiation with the regime.

“In reality, she was the one holding a non-violence policy and has been
fighting to find an answer to the problems through dialogue with all
[political and ethnic] groups participating,” she said.

It is widely expected that Suu Kyi’s trial will end in a guilty verdict,
and the charges brought against her carry a maximum five year sentence.

The past six years of Suu Kyi’s house arrest have seen restrictions on
movement and communication increasingly tightened, and this will likely
continue in the lead-up to the 2010 elections.

Reacting to whether her imprisonment will cripple the future of Burma’s
democracy movement, the coordinator of advocacy network ALTSEAN-Burma,
Debbie Stothard, said that Suu Kyi’s role “goes beyond being a prisoner”.

“She’s a prisoner because she’s been an effective campaigner and leader of
this movement,” she said.

“If she was no longer effective, the regime would no longer see her as a
threat and she would not be imprisoned.”

____________________________________
OPINION / OTHER

July 24, Irrawaddy
Burma’s opposition must wage proxy fight - Min Zin

In politics, direct and frontal attack is rarely wise. Occupying the flank
by co-opting the opponent's game plan for one's own purposes is a powerful
ploy.

Co-option strategy, however, is a double-edged sword. It presents the risk
of being swallowed by the dominant establishment, or at least having one’s
reputation damaged, but it also conceals great power and maneuverability.

It depends on how one manages to play it right in a relatively conducive
political environment. If well managed, it will become strength. In any
case, never rule out this option in exchange for, or fixing solely on, the
honor fight when the time is not ripe. To the advantage of oppositions in
Burma, a multi-pronged strategy is always called for.

Mainstream oppositions, including the National League for Democracy (NLD)
and major ethnic ceasefire groups, have announced they will not take part
in the 2010 elections unless the military allows a constitutional revision
and inclusive political process. Instead of bringing about a much-needed
state-building process in which all parties rally together and make their
voices heard, Burma's constitution conceded 25 percent of legislative
seats to the armed forces and denied protection of fundamental ethnic
rights in a multi-ethnic nation.

More importantly, the constitution allows the military virtually to run
the country with the National Defense and Security Council (NDSC), and
even to stage a coup d’état "if there arises a state of emergency." The
opposition's principled stance of refusing to endorse the military's
constitution and contest the 2010 elections, therefore, deserves
understanding and support.

However, it does not mean that there is no gap in the castle wall. The
opposition should also look at the situation from a power perspective. By
dissecting the junta’s constitution, the opposition will find the devil
lies in the details over which Snr-Gen Than Shwe should lose sleep.

First of all, the new post-2010 election power arrangement will create two
power centers—military and government. These two power centers will
nonetheless be at loggerheads over the command structure and personal
interests. Even within the single power center, the Burmese military has
repeatedly mired itself in purges resulting from battalion forces versus
the intelligence faction, and other rivalries.

Now, after the elimination of the intelligence faction, various reports
confirm that there are serious animosity and tension between the military
personnel and the thuggish Union Solidarity and Development Association
(USDA) members regarding the latter's interference with the military's
administrative mandate and other issues of self-interest.

The election, so long as it demonstrates a relatively competitive nature,
can make elite rivalry become public issues. The government's operation
with two centers of power—no matter who pull the strings—could lead to
either a serious internal split or miserable inefficiency of the ruling
body.

Secondly, the constitution carries destructive seed for the military to
grow into a center-versus-periphery conflict. Though Than Shwe enshrined
ultimate power for the commander-in-chief of the military in the
constitution, he failed to provide similar authority to regional
commanders in their localities, who are key pillars in the military
regime's power structure.

The constitution requires the president to seek approval from the
commander-in-chief in all major issues at least via NDSC procedure, but it
does not guarantee any special power to regional commanders.
Constitutionally, regional commanders are under the control of Chief
Ministers of the Regions or States, who could well be civilians in most
cases.

Even if the president appoints military Members of Parliament or retired
army officials as Chief Minister of the Region or State, the regional
commander who is so used to being a warlord in his domain will find it
hard to accept constitutionally the prescribed power of the Chief
Minister. This may in turn lead the regional commanders to oppose not only
local power arrangements but also Naypyidaw's control.

The third loophole in the constitution is that if non-military parties
sweep to victory or win a clear majority of the remaining seats (aside
from the 25 percent reserved seats for the military), a non-military
candidate can become president or at least non-military parties can
control the legislative agendas. According to the constitution, parliament
has the right to enact a long list of laws ranging from defense and
foreign affairs to economic and social sectors. Thus, Than Shwe appears to
be determined to fill the remaining parliamentary seats with members of a
military-backed political party.

However, this leads to the fourth problem—another self-defeating clause of
the constitution.

____________________________________

July 24, Asia Times
Why Myanmar's elections will work - James Gomez

Yangon - Any recent repeat traveller to Myanmar would have noticed the
change. Compared to just a few years ago, there are more paved roads,
including a modern tollway connecting the central city of Mandalay to the
newly built capital of Naipyidaw. On the new roadways, travelling
vehicles' license plate numbers, make and model are captured digitally and
stored to a centrally maintained computer system.

Meanwhile, mobile telecommunications have become cheaper and more
widespread, with disposable SIM cards costing US$20-$50 widely available
in urban areas. Internet cafes have sprung up and do booming business
across the country, although technically private proprietors must keep
records of all those who log-in at their shops.

Within the old capital of Yangon, modern buildings have sprung up,
including serviced apartments for expatriates and high-end hotels. Shops
have more goods for sale, while the average age of the reconditioned
Japanese vehicles that ply the local roads is now much younger than
previously.

Then there are the nouveau rich, who frequent the few modern cafes and
high-end hotel bars in the big cities of Yangon and Mandalay. Many are of
Chinese origin, whose children are being educated at top-notch
universities overseas. Others are the offspring of top generals. There is
also a new group earning an international standard of living through work
at the various development organizations increasingly active in the
country.

These are the often overlooked economic fruits of Myanmar's development
authoritarianism, still modest, but similar to those touted by other
repressive regional regimes that have based their political legitimacy on
maintaining economic growth. Although Myanmar remains mired in poverty and
suffers from chronic economic mismanagement and official corruption,
certain recent economic gains are noticeable.

If this phenomenon is not taken into account, as it has been by sections
of the local population, the long running efforts towards democracy
promotion in Myanmar will be in vain. Myanmar's authoritarian, economic
growth-driven allies, including Singapore and China, have encouraged the
country's military leaders to stay the course of democratic elections
scheduled for 2010, even as Western critics prejudge the polls as a sham.

Nominally democratic, in practice highly repressive, Singapore understands
that regularly-held elections provide procedural and international
legitimacy to its heavy-handed and sophisticated authoritarian rule. The
symbolic move towards democracy will also bolster Myanmar's regional
standing, where its institutionalized repression will not be checked by
the Association of Southeast Asian Nation's (ASEAN) new human rights body
anytime soon.

It's become increasingly apparent that Myanmar and its strategic allies in
China and Singapore believe that local sentiment is shifting in the
junta's favor, due to growing on-the-ground evidence of economic progress.
Although the scale of that progress is debatable - particularly in light
of the 2007 mass protests against the regime that the military violently
repressed - after decades of uninterrupted and corrupt military rule the
population could well be primed to accept China- or Singapore-style
development authoritarianism.

Grudging acceptance
The turn in economic momentum, which cannot be captured by looking at
often doctored GDP (gross domestic product) growth figures, is best
witnessed and felt on the ground. It has led some here to grudgingly adopt
a different tune about the junta's leadership. In interviews with local
people, many said that the regime could be accepted if generals and their
affiliated officials did not pocket all the profits from economic
activities, including natural resource exports.

Some went as far to say that if the regime took only 50% and redistributed
the other half towards broad-based economic development, then the regime
would still be acceptable. This perception could be informed by popular
opinion about the region's faster growing authoritarian regimes, including
China, Singapore and Vietnam, which are often portrayed favorably in
Myanmar's state-dominated media.

Many Burmese strive to work in Singapore, which they tend to view as a
comparatively modern and developed city. That despite the island state's
ruling People's Action Party (PAP) regime does business, including
facilitating arms deals, with their repressive government.

The PAP-led government doesn't release official figures of Burmese
nationals working in Singapore, but the numbers have increased so much
that every year it is increasingly difficult for Burmese working there to
get air tickets back to Myanmar during the peak seasons of Christmas, New
Year and the Chinese Lunar New Year. Many share similarly positive views
of China's extraordinary economic transformation, even though Beijing is
the repressive junta's main economic and political supporter.

Although perhaps anecdotal, these emerging sentiments - some suggest the
vanguard of an important political shift - have been overlooked by
democracy and reform promoters, including in the United States and
European Union. Both Western powers maintain harsh economic sanctions
against the regime, which some argue has hurt the grass roots population
more than the ruling generals.

Thus US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's offer this week of new United
States investment for the release of pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi
caught many Myanmar analysts by surprise. Any such investments, they note,
would only help to bolster Myanmar's emerging military-led development
authoritarianism.

Big Western democracy promotion agencies have for decades supported
externally based Burmese pro-democracy groups, often to the neglect of
grass roots activities inside the country. The recent surge in foreign aid
in the wake of Cyclone Nagris, distributed by a wide range of
international organizations, claimed to advocate the development of "civil
society". However, few of their actual activities are even remotely
related to democracy promotion.

This international neglect, compounded with a very justified fear of
persecution or imprisonment for political activities, has created suitable
conditions for Singapore- or China-style development authoritarianism to
take root. Most of the strategies deployed by anti-regime political
activists inside the country are limited to organizing welfare activities,
signing petitions and meeting on junta-approved days and locations.

These activities have had little, if any, impact and are behind the times
when compared to the moves the military is taking towards a development
authoritarianism model, which includes the holding of next year's
elections. There is a prevailing opinion among political activists inside
the country, including among Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD)
party, that their activists will be arrested and detained in the run up to
the polls.

That would pave the way for military appointed parties and candidates to
capture a thumping statistical mandate at the elections, as the NLD did at
the annulled 1990 polls. Myanmar will soon be a "discipline democracy",
but one the development-starved population might - to the chagrin of many
outside the countries - willingly embrace.

Dr James Gomez is a Lecturer at Monash University's School of Humanities,
Communications and Social Science in Australia. He may be reached at
james.gomez at arts.monash.edu.au

(Copyright 2008 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved.
Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.)

____________________________________
PRESS RELEASE

July 24, U.S. CAMPAIGN FOR BURMA
Activists laud U.S. Congress for passing Burma sanctions, ask President
Obama to organize UN Security Council action

United Kingdom and United States to Chair UN Body in August, September

(Washington, DC)  The U.S. Campaign for Burma today praised leaders in the
U.S. Congress for passing a measure maintaining U.S. sanctions on the
Southeast Asian country of Burma.  The bill passed in the Senate after
11:00 pm on Thursday, July 23rd. The House of Representatives unanimously
passed a similar bill on July 21st, 2009.

In an unprecedented move, 66 U.S. Senators co-sponsored the legislation,
more than at any time since portions of the legislation originally passed
in 2003. The bill was led by a bi-partisan group of senior senators,
including Senate Minority leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), Senate
Intelligence Committee Chair Dianne Feinstein (D-CA), Senate Majority Whip
Richard Durbin (D-IL), and Senator John McCain.  At the same time, 11 of
the 14 new U.S. Senators, who were elected in 2008, co-sponsored the
measure. The legislation has now been sent to the White House for the
signature of President Obama, who in May recently decided to extend a ban
on U.S. investment in Burma.

"This strong, bi-partisan measure will help to deny hundreds of millions
of dollars to Burma's military regime," said Aung Din, Executive Director
of the U.S. Campaign for Burma, who served as a political prisoner in the
country for over four years.

The move comes as Burma's military regime rejected overtures by U.S.
Secretary of State Clinton appealing for the release of imprisoned Nobel
Peace Prize recipient Aung San Suu Kyi in exchange for new U.S. investment
in Burma, a practice ended by President Bill Clinton in 1997.  Referring
to Clinton's remarks, Burma's state-run media said, "Demanding release of
Daw Suu Kyi means showing reckless disregard for the law."  Burma's
military regime completely controls the country's judiciary and according
to the United Nations there is no independent judiciary in Burma, but the
regime has pretended it can not free Aung San Suu Kyi because she is on
trial and it can not interfere in a legal case.

Aung San Suu Kyi is not just a human rights leader -- she led her
political party the National League for Democracy to win 82% of the seats
in parliament in Burma's last election.  Its legitimacy in danger, the
regime, led by Senior General Than Shwe, effectively annulled the results.

Meanwhile, the regime has continued to carry out vicious attacks against
civilians in eastern Burma, forcing thousands to flee over the border into
Thailand as refugees.  Since 1996, the regime has forced over a million
people to flee their homes and destroyed 3,300 ethnic minority villages --
attacks on par with the violence in the Darfur region of Sudan.  The
regime has raped ethnic women and girls, burned food supplies, laid
landmines throughout the region, and recruited thousands of children into
its military ranks in its attempts to wipe out any and all resistance to
its rule. Observers point out that such attacks are likely to ramp-up even
further in the coming months in northern Burma, as the Burmese regime
seeks to disarm ethnic groups opposed to military domination.

In May, a group of five of the world's leading judges and jurists --
including those with experience at the International Criminal Tribunal on
Rwanda and Yugoslavia, urged the UN Security Council to initiate a
commission of inquiry into crimes against humanity committed by Than
Shwe's regime.  Fifty-five members of the U.S. House of Representatives
sent a letter to President Obama urging him to take action to stop these
crimes. Members of Congress are also pressing the administration to
organize an international arms embargo against Than Shwe's regime.

"This move by the Congress makes it clear that there is overwhelming,
bi-partisan support for stronger action on Burma," added Aung Din.  "It's
time for the United States to lead an effort at the UN Security Council --
 which it will chair in September -- to seek action on crimes against
humanity and an arms embargo.  The longer the U.S. waits, the more people
will die in Burma."

The United Kingdom chairs the UN Security Council in August. ##

Contact: Jeremy Woodrum, (202) 246-7924

____________________________________

Senator Mitch McConnell: Bill to renew sanctions against the Burmese
Government passes Senate

Washington, D.C. – U.S. Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY)
announced Thursday that his legislation to renew sanctions against the
Burmese government has passed the Senate and is now on its way to the
President’s desk for his signature.  The Burmese Freedom and Democracy Act
was cosponsored by Senators McConnell and Dianne Feinstein (D-CA). 
McConnell made the following statement regarding passage of the
legislation:

“As in years past, this resolution will extend import sanctions for
another year against Burmese goods in order to maintain economic pressure
on the ruling State Peace and Development Council (SPDC).  It also
continues the Tom Lantos Block Burmese JADE Act, which was enacted last
year and further increased sanctions against the junta.

“In some circles the value of sanctions has been questioned and, at some
point, greater engagement with the regime may be in order.  However, by
passing this measure, Congress has clearly concluded that such a change in
policy would be premature, and for good reason.  The very fact that Nobel
Peace Prize laureate Aung San Suu Kyi has been put on trial by the regime
for trumped-up charges reflects how essential it is to continue these
measures against the SPDC.  To do otherwise would implicitly condone the
junta’s actions in trying her.  It also would turn a blind eye to the
regime having imprisoned Suu Kyi for 13 of the past 20 years, to say
nothing of the scores of less well-known political prisoners who currently
languish in Burmese prisons.

“UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon’s recent trip to Burma, I think,
demonstrates yet again the true nature of this regime.  During his visit,
he was denied access to Suu Kyi and apparently received no concessions
from the junta.  This reflects that it is the SPDC that does not want to
engage meaningfully with the international community, not the other way
around.  Therefore, my colleagues and I believe that sanctions against the
junta should remain in place until such time as the regime truly commits
itself to a course of democratization and reconciliation.

“Nor should anyone be fooled by the junta’s transparent efforts to
legitimize its rule through the scheduled 2010 elections.  By excluding
Suu Kyi from participating in the elections and by including provisions
that would permanently entrench military rule, the new Burmese charter is
no more legitimate than the regime that sponsored it.  More than halfway
through 2009, it is hard to see how next year’s elections in Burma are
redeemable.

“Congress’s posture toward the Burmese regime is not just borne out of
humanitarian concerns; it also involves important national security
considerations.  Just this week, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton
publicly raised questions about alleged military links between the junta
and North Korea.  The details of the Burmese-North Korean relationship are
murky but, according to the Washington Post, concern has been raised among
U.S. officials about a possible budding nuclear relationship between the
two autocracies.

“Finally, I note that this resolution has brought together 66 members of
this chamber as cosponsors, more cosponsors than any previous year.  This
showing reflects yet again the genuine bipartisan support for the people
of Burma and opposition to the junta’s rule.  In this effort, I was
pleased to work closely again with my friend Senator Dianne Feinstein, who
has long been a vigorous advocate for the Burmese people.  Senators McCain
and Durbin have also been stalwarts in their support for freedom in Burma,
and they once again were at the vanguard of this legislative undertaking.”