BurmaNet News, August 14, 2009

[Editor]

August 14, 2009 Issue #3776

INSIDE BURMA
DVB: 500 Shan houses burned in scorched earth campaign
Mizzima: Opposition leaders likely to meet visiting US senator Webb

ON THE BORDER
Irrawaddy: China warns commander to avoid instability in Shan state
SHAN: China tough with junta on Kokang

HEALTH / AIDS
DVB: AH1N1 virus hits Thailand refugee camp

REGIONAL
Irrawaddy: Thailand weakens sanctions against Burma

INTERNATIONAL
Irrawaddy: EU sanctions target Burmese state-run media
Irrawaddy: US welcomes senator’s trip to Burma

OPINION / OTHER
Mizzima: Is US Senator Webb on a mercy mission to Burma - Larry Jagan
Asia Times: Suu Kyi verdict tests ASEAN's resolve - Alistair D B Cook and
Mely Caballero-Anthony
Reuters: After Suu Kyi verdict, should the West engage Myanmar? - Nopporn
Wong-Anan

____________________________________
INSIDE BURMA

August 14, Democratic Voice of Burma
500 Shan houses burned in scorched earth campaign

The Burmese junta’s latest scorched earth campaign in Shan state has in
the last three weeks destroyed 500 homes and uprooted around 10,000
civilians, according to a data released today.

Burma’s eastern Shan state has long been a site of conflict between the
Burmese army and armed opposition groups, driven in part by its abundance
of opium poppy plantations.

Data compiled by Shan Human Rights Foundation (SHRF), the Shan Women’s
Action Network (SWAN) and other Shan community-based organizations show
that since 27 July, around 40 villages have been relocated by the army.

According to the groups, it is the single largest forced relocation in
Shan state since a campaign from 1996 to 1998 saw the uprooting of 300,000
villagers, many of whom fled to Thailand.

Much of the campaign has focused on Laikha township, where over 100
villagers, including women, have been arrested and tortured, and three
have died. Many of these were displaced by the previous campaign.

“One young woman was shot while trying to retrieve her possessions from
her burning house, and her body thrown into a pit latrine,” said a joint
press release.

“Another woman was gang-raped in front of her husband by an officer and
three of his troops.”

The groups have called on the UN Security Council to set up a Commission
of Enquiry to investigate what they believe to be crimes against humanity.

They have also demanded that members of the Association of Southeast Asian
Nations (ASEAN) “seriously review their engagement with this pariah
nation”.

“The regime brazenly committed these crimes even as the whole world was
watching them during the trial of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi,” said Charm Tong
of SWAN. “They are thumbing their noses at the international community.”

____________________________________

August 14, Mizzima News
Opposition leaders likely to meet visiting US senator Webb - Mungpi

New Delhi– Burmese junta on Thursday invited four opposition leaders to
come to the new capital Naypyitaw on Friday, but the opposition’s
spokesperson said they are still unaware of the reason behind the
invitation.

Than Tun, Nyunt Wai, Hla Pe and Soe Myint, all central executive committee
(CEC) members of the National League for Democracy, Aung San Suu Kyi’s
party, on Thursday received an invitation from the government to come to
Naypyitaw on Friday, the NLD spokesperson Nyan Win said.

“I don’t know why or for what, but I am aware that the four have been
invited. And I cannot speculate because I do not know anything as yet and
I am not even sure if the four leaders would be able to make it,” Nyan Win
said.

But another central executive committee member and veteran journalist Win
Tin said he believes it might have to do with the visit of the US senator
Jim Webb.

“I know that the NLD leaders are planning to go to Naypyitaw. Though I
don’t know the reason, I guess it might have something to do with Jim
Webb’s visit,” Win Tin said.

He, however, said it is a personal opinion.

An US embassy spokesperson in Rangoon told Mizzima that Senator Jim Webb,
who is on a tour of five Southeast Asian countries, will arrive in Burma
on Friday.

Richard Mei, the embassy spokesperson said, “Senator Jim Webb is arriving
on Friday,” but did not mention details of his slated meeting with Burmese
officials.

According to a statement issued by his office on Thursday, Webb will meet
Burma’s military Chief Snr Gen Than Shwe during his visit to Burma.

“Later this week, U.S. Senator Jim Webb (D-VA) is scheduled to meet
leaders at the highest levels of the national government in Burma,
including Senior General Than Shwe,” the statement said.

“If the Shwe meeting takes place it will be the first time that a senior
American official has ever met Burma's top leader,” the statement added.

Senator Webb will also be the first United States Member of Congress to
visit Burma in more than 10 years. His visit is one stop on a two-week,
five-nation tour of Asia to explore opportunities to advance U.S.
interests in the region.

As chairman of the East Asia and Pacific Affairs Subcommittee of the
Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Webb oversees U.S. relations with
countries in East Asia, Southeast Asia, the Pacific Rim, and Oceana.

The subcommittee also oversees regional organizations such as the
Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the Asia-Pacific
Economic Cooperation (APEC).

In addition to his more recent visits as a member of the Senate Foreign
Relations Committee, Webb has worked and travelled throughout this vast
region, from Micronesia to Burma, for nearly four decades, as a Marine
Corps Officer, a defence planner, a journalist, a novelist, a Department
of Defence executive, and as a business consultant.

Webb served as an infantry Marine in Vietnam, and later as Assistant
Secretary of Defence and Secretary of the Navy in the Pentagon.

____________________________________
ON THE BORDER

August 14, Irrawaddy
China warns commander to avoid instability in Shan state - Lawi Weng

Chinese officials have warned the junta’s northeastern military commander
not to create instability in Shan State bordering with China, according to
sources on the Sino-Burmese border.

Two Chinese officials from Yunnan Province met with northeastern commander
Aung Than Htut in Loigai Township on August 10.

Aung Kyaw Zaw, a Burmese analyst based on the border, said the Chinese
officials told the commander they were worried about a migration of
refugees from Shan State into China, if armed clashes between junta troops
and ethnic armed groups break out.

About 10,000 people, including Kokang and Chinese migrants, reportedly
entered China earlier this month after tension increased between
government troops and the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army
(MNDAA), a Kokang ceasefire group.

The two Chinese officials expressed their views forcefully, according to
the source.

Tension have increased following an attempted raid by 70 government troops
on the home of the MNDAA chairman, in search of illegal drugs. About 300
Kokang troops blocked the government troops on their way to the residence,
sources said.

Chinese officials reportedly told Vice Snr-Gen Maung Aye of the Burmese
army, to handle border area conflicts among the ethnic armed ceasefire
groups peacefully during his visit to China in June, according to sources.

The government is trying to force ethnic armed groups, the Wa, Kokang and
Monglar, in Shan State to transform their forces into a border guard force
under the military government.

The three groups have refused the offer, increasing tensions. The junta
has deployed more troops in the area as a result. Some analysts say that
the government appears to be preparing an offensive against the armed
ethnic groups. Other sources say they believe government troops will not
mount any immediate offensives in Shan State because of China’s concern
and the upcoming national election in 2010.

The three ethnic armed ceasefire groups have formed an alliance to support
each other if there are clashes with government troops, said sources in
Shan State.

____________________________________

August 13, Shan Herald Agency for News
China tough with junta on Kokang

China may well be backing Naypyitaw, when it comes to democracy icon Aung
San Suu Kyi and the over 2,000 political prisoners in Burma, but it has
adopted a tough stance, twice in a week, when the Burmese Army tried to
impose itself on one of the former communist armies, according to sources
on the Sino-Burma border.

On August 8, it had successfully convinced the Burmese Army, which had
entered the Kokang territory “without our permission” to carry out an
inspection on a location suspected to have an arms factory. “Due to
China’s intervention, the Burmese Army pulled out,” said a local source.

Three days later on August 11, Maj-Gen Aung Than Tut, Commander of the
Lashio-based Northeastern Region Command, summoned five officers of the
Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), as the Kokang ceasefire
group prefers to call itself, to his headquarters. Two were later
dispatched to Laogai, the Kokang capital, to persuade its top leader Peng
Jiasheng to have an audience with him.

Peng, who had already refused to meet Aung Than Tut on August 8, did not
show up. As a result, the situation that had almost returned to
normal on August 9 became tense again, forcing people to flee across the
border yet again.

They were however stopped by the Chinese. “We are doing what we can to
ease the situation,” a border official was quoted as saying. “Of course,
we will not refuse admission if bullets start flying. But in the
meanwhile, you should trust us and go back.”

Only Chinese citizens were allowed to cross the border, said a border source.

The remaining three were allowed to return the next day, thus somewhat
cooling things. “There isn’t any doubt why the junta backed down,” said a
knowledgeable source. “There could even have been a trade-off between
Naypyitaw and China: Ditching Suu Kyi in exchange for peace along the
border.”

China was the only country which supported Naypyitaw’s decision to
continue Aung San Suu Kyi’s house arrest on August 11.

The situation nevertheless is still worrisome, according to a Thai-Burma
watcher. “The release of the Kokang officials did not resolve the issues
between the two sides,” he said. “Naypyitaw still wants Kokang and their
allies to become border security battalions under the control of the
Burmese Army and they keep saying no to it.”

In addition, according to several sources, any conflict with Kokang will
certainly lead to a full-scale war with its allies, the Kachin
Independence Army (KIA), United Wa State Army (UWSA), National Democratic
Alliance Army-Eastern Shan State (NDAA) and the Shan State Army (SSA)
“North”, which accounts for a grand total of 45,000 to 50,000 strong well
armed opposition.

Naypyitaw has fixed October as the deadline for the ceasefire groups to
transform into what it terms as the Border Guard Forces (BGFs).

____________________________________
HEALTH / AIDS

August 14, Democratic Voice of Burma
AH1N1 virus hits Thailand refugee camp - Naw Noreen

Four Burmese children living in a refugee camp close to the Thai-Burma
border have been infected with the AH1N1 virus, according to a medical aid
group working in the area.

According to Saw Nay Hser, chief of the Mae La camp hospital run by Aide
Medical International (AMI), a three-old-girl was first confirmed with the
virus on 2 August.

“She was showing symptoms such as coughing, sneezing and a high body
temperature but we didn’t think she was infected with the AH1N1 virus,” he
said.

Following tests by another medical group, the Shoklo Malaria Research
Unit, the girl was confirmed as the first to be infected in the camp.

Risk of the virus spreading in the camp is high, particularly so given the
close proximity to one another that people live.

Since the first case was diagnosed, another three have been confirmed, all
of whom are close neighbours of the girl.

“On the same day we had the test results, I went to the children’s house
with other medical workers,” said Saw Nay Hser.

“They were not doing too badly apart from some coughing and sneezing. We
are giving them treatments at their homes.”

He added that the families of the children infected with the virus have
been advised not to go outside while neighbours were told not to go visit
them. One of the children apparently had visited someone outside of the
camp with her family before she fell ill.

About 50,000 Burmese refugees live in Mae La camp, and many are said to be
worried that they will also catch the disease.

The camp’s authorities say they are doing as much as they can to
distribute medicine and educate people about the disease. Tests are still
being conducted to find out exactly how many people have been infected.

According to the World Health Organisation (WHO), so far 1462 people
worldwide have died from AH1N1, with 177457 cases reported, although it
warns that this figure is likely to be below the actual amount.

____________________________________
REGIONAL

August 14, Irrawaddy
Thailand weakens sanctions against Burma - Arkar Moe

Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva said that Thailand had no problem
with other countries putting more pressure on the military regime
including arms sanctions, but opposed banning gems, the Bangkok Post
reported on Friday.

Thailand and China are the two largest importers of Burmese gemstones.

Abhisit made clear Thailand's position on gems sanctions in talks with US
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in Bangkok on July 21, and said
Thailand opposed banning Burmese gems in order to put more pressure on the
military regime after the sentencing of opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi
this week.

Former US President George Bush signed the Burma Jade Act into law on July
29, 2008, restricting the import of Burmese gemstones and extending
existing import sanctions on Burma.

According to the Burmese Central Statistical Organization, Burma produced
30,896.44 tons of jade and 20.5 million carats of gems in 2008. The gems
included ruby, sapphire, spinel, peridot and pearl.

British ambassador to Thailand Quinton Quayle said after talks with
Abhisit that more measures would be imposed on Burma if the junta
continued to ignore calls for Suu Kyi's release. Britain now holds the
presidency of the United Nations Security Council.
"I think Prime Minister Abhisit and his foreign minister, Kasit Piromya,
will have to hold talks with all Asean country leaders in order to find
out what steps can be taken next, apart from issuing a [Asean] statement,"
Quayle said.

As chair of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, Thailand released
a statement on Wednesday in which it expressed "deep disappointment" at
the Burmese court's ruling on Tuesday.

Thailand is largely dependent on Burma for its energy needs and also has
investments in telecommunications there.

Some analysts said that the effectiveness of international sanctions on
Burma are limited owing to the Burmese junta’s close links with China,
India and Thailand.

According to Agence France Presse, "They are a huge block [against
international action]," said Ian Holliday, dean of social sciences at the
University of Hong Kong and an expert on Burma. "China is the essential
one, and India and Thailand follow in its wake."

The EU, US and other countries have targeted Burma with economic sanctions
and travel bans.

The European Union on Thursday said it is expanding its sanctions against
Burma after the Burmese junta sentenced pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu
Kyi to an additional 18 months of house arrest.

"It would not be appropriate for India to join the US-led efforts if it
wants to retain any influence in Burma," said C Uday Bhaskar, head of
India's National Maritime Foundation think tank.

____________________________________
INTERNATIONAL

August 14, Irrawaddy
EU sanctions target Burmese state-run media - Wai Moe

The European Union has added four state-run media outlets to its list of
Burmese sanctions targets in response to the court ruling against
pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi.

Four media enterprises—the Myanmar News and Periodicals Enterprise, which
publishes three state-run newspapers; the Tatmadaw Telecasting Unit, which
runs Myawaddy Television; Myanmar Radio and Television; and the Myanmar
Motion Picture Enterprise—were added to the revised sanctions list
published on Friday.
State-run newspapers and other media outlets have been added to the EU
sanctions blacklist. (Photo: Marisa Y Angel)

The EU stated that it put the media organizations on the list because they
have been involved in promoting the regime’s policies and propaganda.

Responding to the move, journalists in Rangoon noted that the listed
enterprises were not the only ones used by the regime to promote its
policies. Private journals and magazines owned by the junta’s associates
also play a similar role, they said.

“Like the state-run media, these privately owned journals and magazines
run by associates of the ruling generals also play a significant role in
spreading the regime’s propaganda,” said a Rangoon-based journalist who
spoke on condition of anonymity.

Also added to the sanctions list were judges and government prosecutors
from the Northern District Court, which sentenced Suu Kyi on August 11.

The EU sanctions on Burma includes visa bans, an arms embargo, limiting
diplomatic contacts, freezing officials’ offshore accounts, and suspending
non-humanitarian aid or development programs.

The European bloc first introduced sanctions on Burma in 1996. The
sanctions have been updated, renewed and extended every year since then,
and are set to expire on April 30, 2010, if they are not renewed.

On August 13, two days after Suu Kyi’s conviction, the Council of the
European Union announced the adoption of additional sanctions against the
Burmese regime to condemn “the unjustified trial of and the verdict
against” the pro-democracy leader.

“Under the new restrictive measures, members of the judiciary responsible
for the verdict are added to the existing list of persons and entities
subject to a travel ban and to an assets freeze,” the EU council said in a
press release on Thursday.

“Moreover, the persons and entities subject to the restrictive measures is
extended to cover the assets freeze to enterprises that are owned and
controlled by members of the regime in Burma/Myanmar or by persons or
entities associated with them,” the council added.

Forty Burmese enterprises owned by cronies of the junta are included on
the EU sanctions list.

____________________________________

August 14, Irrawaddy
US welcomes senator’s trip to Burma - Lalit K Jha

Washington - The United States has welcomed the decision of Democratic Sen
Jim Webb to visit Burma, where he is scheduled to meet with the leader of
the military junta in the first visit by a high ranking US official in a
decade.

“We welcome Sen. Webb’s trip to the region, including the stop in Burma,”
Michael Hammer, a spokesperson for the National Security Council at the
White House told The Irrawaddy.

Webb is scheduled to meet with Sen-Gen Than Shwe, the leader of the
reclusive regime that has defied US economic sanctions and ignored
international calls to open up the country to democratic reform.

“It is important for the Burmese leadership to hear of the strong views of
American political leaders about the path it should take toward democracy,
good governance and genuine national reconciliation,” Hammer said.

“The recent conviction of Aung San Suu Kyi, which was a serious step
backward, indicates the magnitude of the challenge the international
community faces in persuading the Burmese leadership to embark on that
path,” he said. “Sen Webb can convey American views effectively on such
subjects.”

Webb’s visit is one stop on a two-week, five-nation tour of Asia to
explore opportunities to advance US interests in the region. He serves as
chairman of the East Asia and Pacific Affairs Subcommittee of the Senate
Foreign Relations Committee.

However, some groups following the Burma issue have voiced concern that
his visit could send conflicting signals to the Burmese generals and
others.

“The problem posed by Senator Webb’s visit is his position on US policy
and the confusing signals it may send to both Burma and the region,” said
Walter Lohman, the director of the Heritage Foundation’s Asian Studies
Center, a US conservative think tank.

“President Obama has just signed extensions of sweeping US bans on imports
from, and American investment in, Burma,” he said.

Lohman noted that Webb is widely regarded as one of the foremost opponents
of the sanction policy. During Kurt Campbell’s confirmation hearing for
the position of Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific
Affairs, Webb put the nominee on the spot regarding the elections the
Burmese government intends to carry out next year.

He pressed Campbell to support the elections under the new Burmese
constitution—a constitution that has been called undemocratic for, among
other things, its effective prohibition on Suu Kyi’s participation.

“This is important because the sanctions vs. engagement debate will
ultimately turn on the validity of the 2010 elections.  Senator Webb wants
to work toward what is essentially a roadmap to a normal US-Burma
relationship," he said.

Lohman said Webb’s views on Burma are his own.  “They do not represent
current U.S. policy and are not at all likely to prevail in the stalled
review of it.  Than Shwe, our adversaries, challengers, allies and friends
should well take note,” he said.

____________________________________
OPINION / OTHER

August 14, Mizzima News
Is US Senator Webb on a mercy mission to Burma - Larry Jagan

Bangkok - A prominent US politician, Senator Jim Webb has arrived in
Burma’s capital Naypitdaw and is expected to meet the country’s reclusive
leader, General Than Shwe on Saturday. American diplomats are tight-lipped
about the trip. The whole visit is shrouded in secrecy, but there is
increasing speculation that he may be on a mercy mission to try to free
the 54-year-old American John Yettaw, who was sentenced to seven years in
prison with hard labour on Tuesday for his part in the detained
pro-democracy leader, Aung San Suu Kyi allegedly breaking the conditions
of her house arrest.

Many are suspicious of his intentions: is he acting as a messenger on
behalf of the US government or is there some other mercenary motive. The
Burmese pro-democracy groups abroad have already condemned the visit as a
publicity stunt on the part of the Burmese authorities, which they fear
will not end well for democracy in Burma. Diplomats in Rangoon, remain
sceptical that anything useful can come out of the trip – though some
believe anything could happen if he does have a fruitful meeting with Than
Shwe.

While he may not be an envoy, either for President Barack Obama or the
Secretary of State Hilary Clinton, the White House certainly supports his
trip, believing it was a good opportunity to convey the US’s "strong"
views on the need for genuine political reform to the country's leaders.

“We welcome Senator Webb's trip to the region, including the stop in
Burma,” a spokesman for the National Security Council Mike Hammer, told
journalists in Washington on Friday. “It is important for the Burmese
leadership to hear of the strong views of American political leaders about
the path it should take towards democracy, good governance, and genuine
national reconciliation," he said.

Mr. Webb is the first member of the US Congress to visit Burma for more
than ten years. “It is vitally important that the United States re-engage
with Southeast Asia at all levels," he said in statement released to the
press on his arrival in the Lao capital Vientiane, on Thursday, the first
stop on his five-country regional tour.

Mr. Webb, a Democrat, is also chairman of the Senate Foreign Affairs
sub-committee East Asia and Pacific Affairs. He is visiting Burma and four
other South-East Asian countries in his capacity as the chairman “to
explore opportunities to advance US interests in Burma and the region,”
according to a statement put out at the start of his trip. However Mr.
Webb is now to be a strong supporter of a change in US policy towards
Burma. He is also known to be a staunch critic of his country’s sanctions’
policy.

At the time the devastating Cyclone Nargis lashed Burma in May last year,
leaving more than 140,000 dead and leaving in its trail untold damage, he
told the Senate that: “After years of being isolated from the rest of the
world, the United States along with the international community can use
this opportunity to assist Burma and demonstrate good-will towards the
Burmese people.”

“The time is ripe to move beyond the strategy of isolation and sanctions
and towards the goal of opening up Burma,” he said. “I am hopeful that the
administration will move forward in that spirit and that the Government of
Burma will accept the outpouring of international aid and allow
international relief organisations access throughout the country.”

Since then of course there has been little evidence of the military regime
being prepared to engage the international community. In fact the arrest,
trial and conviction of Aung San Suu Kyi puts paid to any idea that the
regime may be prepared to meet the concerns of the international community
or make concessions to the opposition as part of a national reconciliation
process. Last month, Senator Webb conceded that the recent trial of Aung
San Suu Kyi made it difficult for Washington to pursue "meaningful
relations" with Burma.

Since then Ms Suu Kyi has been sentenced to a further 18 months under
house, for allegedly harbouring an uninvited American intruder who swam
across the lake to the back of her residence. Her lawyers are appealing
against the conviction and sentence. “Daw Aung San Suu Kyi said the
conviction was totally unfair and the court's assessment of the case was
not just,” her chief lawyer Nyan Win told Mizzima. Ms Suu Kyi has already
spent more than 14 of the last 20 years in detention.

But the Burmese pro-democracy movement abroad fears more sinister motives
on the part of the senator – and that the very least he would be duped by
the old man. "We are concerned that the military regime will manipulate
and exploit your visit, and propagandise that you endorse the trial of Daw
Aung San Suu Kyi and the imprisonment of over 2,100 political prisoners,
their human rights abuses on the people of Burma and their systematic,
widespread and ongoing atrocities against the ethnic minorities,” the All
Burma Monks Alliance, 88 Generation Students and All Burma Federation of
Student Unions, said in a joint statement to the senator sent through the
US embassy in Rangoon.

Mr. Webb is anxious not to be seen as a pawn or puppet of the regime.
Several key members of the central executive of Ms Suu Kyi’s party, the
National League for Democracy (NLD) were flown up to Naypitdaw on Saturday
to meet the senator. However it is unclear whether he will request a
meeting with the detained opposition leader herself before he leaves the
country on Sunday, and even if he did, whether he would be granted one.
The Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon was refused a meeting last month when
met the top general. But, Senator Webb may be seen as a potential ally to
be courted.

The new conditions on the opposition leader’s current house arrest include
being allowed some visitors, who have prior permission from the regime.
This gives the senator a great opportunity to test these new restrictions,
NLD sources told Mizzima. Unlike her last stint under house arrest, these
conditions are the same as when she was under house arrest in 2000, when
the secret talks between her and junta started, brokered by the UN special
envoy at the time, Razali Ibrahim, and eventually led to her release in
May 2002.

If that happens, it will not be the first time a US politician has tried
to play a significant role in Burmese politics. In February 1994, during
Ms Suu Kyi’s first house arrest, Congressman Bill Richardson – at the time
a very close ally of President Bill Clinton -- was allowed to visit her in
her residence. He then had talks with the military intelligence chief,
General Khin Nyunt hoping to secure her release and start a dialogue
between the two sides. His efforts failed miserably, like that of many
others who have tried to be interlocutors between the pro-democracy
movement and the military regime.

In fact, Bill Richardson was scheduled -- at the regime’s request – to
visit Burma in late 1993, with the express purpose of helping Aung San Suu
Kyi leave the country, unbeknown to the NLD leader herself. When news of
this leaked out the planned visit was hastily cancelled.

Senator Webb is under no illusions about the likely outcome of his visit.
He has said nothing about John Yettaw, but his case is certain to come up
during the talks between the two men. Some analysts believe that John
Yettaw was always going to be a pawn in future relations between Naypitdaw
and Washington. Already the state-run media has hinted that he is an
American spy. “John Yettaw’s sentence is a clear ploy on the junta’s
part,” said Martin Moreland, a former British Ambassador to Rangoon. “It’s
a thinly veiled appeal to Bill Clinton to come on a rescue mission, like
that to Pyongyang,” he told Mizzima.

There is no doubt, according to sources in Naypitdaw, that Than Shwe is
keen to have a rapprochement with Washington. The countries of Asia,
especially China and Singapore, have also been urging the junta to seize
the apparent opportunity of a possible US review of its policy towards
Burma earlier this year. Asia sees the US position as critical to
resolving international difference over sanctions. It is possible that
Than Shwe may just be testing the waters with Mr Yettaw’s stiff sentence.
So it is certain to figure in the talks between the two.

However, Yettaw's lawyer, Khin Maung Oo, believes his release is unlikely.
"It is impossible that Mr. Yettaw will be sent back with the visiting
senator," Khin Maung Oo said. "I think my client will finally be deported
but not immediately."

The official response from the US embassy in Rangoon is that the issue had
“not been officially discussed”. However most analysts and diplomats in
Rangoon seem certain nothing will happen during the trip – though it may
be the opening of talks that do eventually lead to his being freed.

While it is not prudent to expect too much from Senator Webb’s visit – the
fact that he is seeing Than Shwe is in its self extremely significant.
Even the Secretary General’s special envoy to Burma, Ibrahim Gambari could
not meet Than Shwe, although he did on his earlier visits. A key to what
happens may also be the fact that Mr. Webb is something of a military man
himself. He is a former marine. That is likely to help him with the senior
general who despises civilians.

____________________________________

August 14, Asia Times
Suu Kyi verdict tests ASEAN's resolve - Alistair D B Cook and Mely
Caballero-Anthony

Myanmar's pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi was found guilty on
Tuesday by a Yangon court of breaking the terms of her house arrest and
sentenced to 18 more months house arrest for harboring an American man who
swam to her house uninvited.

This ruling is a signal to Southeast Asia and the international community
that little progress has been made internally in Myanmar. It also reflects
the limitations that the region has when trying to influence developments
in the country.

The long road toward human rights
Local and international outrage has done little to influence the outcome
against Suu Kyi. Once again it brings the focus of human rights back to
Southeast Asia, and what the region is willing to do to resolve political
questions surrounding Myanmar.

Against the Association of Southeast Asian Nations' (ASEAN) [1] goal of
establishing an ASEAN security community, this ruling brings into question
what tangible role the grouping will play in upholding human rights.
Significantly, the ruling comes shortly after the signing on July 20 of
the terms of reference for the ASEAN Inter-governmental Commission on
Human Rights (AICHR) at the 42nd ASEAN ministerial meeting in Phuket,
Thailand.

It has been a long road to agreement on the AICHR, and its establishment
could not come at a more crucial time for the people of Myanmar. The
AICHR's terms of reference were born in 1993 at the 26th ASEAN ministerial
meeting in Singapore and the 14th general assembly of the ASEAN
inter-parliamentary organization in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.

The joint communique of the 26th ASEAN ministerial meeting stated that
members "agreed that ASEAN should also consider the establishment of an
appropriate regional mechanism on human rights". Subsequently, there were
various track-two (unofficial) discussions on the idea of a regional
human-rights mechanism. The ASEAN human rights working group was formally
recognized as the region's informal network on human rights.

In 2005, ASEAN's leaders reached an agreement to draft a charter for the
association. They later assigned an Eminent Persons Group (EPG) to make
policy recommendations. Human-rights advocates lobbied the EPG and a
high-level task force for inclusion of the mechanism. At the end of 2006,
the EPG recommended that a human-rights body be incorporated. This was
subsequently included in the final draft of the ASEAN charter, which was
signed at the 40th ASEAN ministerial meeting, in Manila, the Philippines
in 2007.

The charter called for the establishment of a regional human-rights body
but fell short of defining its mandate. A high-level panel was convened to
formulate the terms of reference (TOR) of this body. The TOR was finally
accepted, in a much watered-down form, at this year's ministerial meeting
in Phuket.

UN response to ASEAN
The United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, Navanethem Pillay,
said on July 22 that the world body "strongly encourages ASEAN states to
appoint commission members who are independent and impartial, and have
proven expertise in human rights".

This appears a loud call for an effective body to respond to the Myanmar
challenge. Indeed, the verdict on Suu Kyi will put further pressure on
ASEAN member states to implement the AICHR without delay, as it should
tackle human-rights violations head-on when the world is watching.

A regional response to this verdict is necessary to signal to the people
of Myanmar and the international community that ASEAN is serious about
promoting the principles and values that it professes.

With the signing of the ASEAN charter, the association demonstrated that
it was ready and willing to take concrete steps in further integrating as
a region. More importantly, the signing of the ASEAN charter showed a
regional normative shift by the grouping towards commenting on the
internal dynamics of members. This was seen when ASEAN declared that it is
committed "to strengthen democracy, enhance good governance and the rule
of law, to promote human rights and fundamental freedoms". The events in
Myanmar put ASEAN's credibility under close scrutiny by its citizens and
the international community.

If the ASEAN charter offers a reflection of how the region carries out its
business and its regional governance, then the ASEAN response to the
guilty verdict on Suu Kyi needs to show that the charter works - and works
well. But this trial has illustrated that the military regime in Myanmar
is unable to carry out its responsibilities as outlined in the ASEAN
charter and the terms of reference of the new AICHR.

The staging of this trial and the verdict that was passed are a clear
signal to ASEAN of the contempt with which Myanmar's military regime
regards the agreements to which it is party.

Suu Kyi's trial smacks of political expediency by a regime that fears
democratic change ahead of a proposed election in 2010. The fact that this
trial took place around the time that Suu Kyi's current house arrest was
due to expire illustrates this well.

A question of legitimacy
It is time for ASEAN to act decisively in accordance with principles of
regional peace and security enshrined in the ASEAN charter and the terms
of reference of the AICHR. This action will bolster the legitimacy of
ASEAN as the guardian of the personal security of its citizens.

It remains to be seen whether ASEAN will step up to this challenge and
whether its response will yield results. However, it is clear that if
ASEAN does little to improve this situation, then its credibility will be
further undermined. It will be difficult for the association to portray
itself as providing regional solutions to regional problems.

Notes
1. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations consists of Brunei,
Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore,
Thailand and Vietnam.

Alistair D B Cook is post-doctoral fellow and Mely Caballero-Anthony
(ismcanthony at ntu.edu.sg) is associate professor and head at the Center for
Non-Traditional Security Studies, S Rajaratnam School of International
Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University.

____________________________________

August 14, Reuters
After Suu Kyi verdict, should the West engage Myanmar? - Nopporn Wong-Anan
- Analysis

Singapore - Myanmar's reduced sentence for opposition leader Aung San Suu
Kyi may be an indication the junta is becoming more sensitive to
international pressure as it prepares a transition to civilian rule next
year, analysts say.

A Myanmar court on Tuesday sentenced Suu Kyi, who has spent 14 of the past
20 years in detention, to three years in jail -- which the junta then
immediately reduced to 18 months of house arrest at her lakeside home in
Yangon.

The West reacted in outrage, with the European Union preparing a fresh
round of sanctions, while China and Myanmar's other neighbors took a more
measured response.

The trial came at a time when Western capitals were questioning their
strategy toward the generals, given their ineffectiveness in trying to
ostracize them or Asia's attempts at engagement.

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, on a visit to Jakarta in
February, expressed frustration at the failure of both approaches.
"Imposing sanctions has not influenced the junta... Reaching out and
trying to engage has not influenced them either."

Myanmar is a resource-rich country that lies strategically between China
and India. The 10-nation Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN),
of which Myanmar is a member, worries that isolating Myanmar will merely
shove it into China's orbit.

"Such sanctions don't seem to have much effect on Myanmar because it is a
resource-rich country" where Asian neighbors compete for everything from
timber to oil and gas, said Antonio Rappa, political analyst at the S.
Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore.

Singapore is among the top three biggest trading partners and investors in
Myanmar, whose ruling generals are believed to park their money and send
their children to study in the island-state.

Analysts saw other signs of the junta beginning to become more engaged
with the world, such as its acceptance of international aid -- and foreign
aid workers -- to help rebuild after a cyclone hit the Irrawaddy Delta in
May 2008, killing 140,000 people.

"What Myanmar needs is more international contact rather than less," said
former ASEAN Secretary General Rodolfo Severino, adding the junta had
shown a "degree of openness" to the international community in the wake of
the cyclone that made 2.4 million people destitute.

KANGAROO TRIAL

Debbie Stothard of the anti-junta Alternative ASEAN Network on Burma said
the repeated delays in handing down the Suu Kyi verdict, and then the
commuted sentence, showed the regime could be swayed by international
pressure.

"I think what's interesting is we could see that from a fast kangaroo
trial, the regime had to delay the trial and impose a lighter sentence
because of international pressure," Stothard told Reuters Television.

That would appear to argue for brandishing a stick at the regime, and
analysts said it was unlikely the Obama administration would soften its
stance following the verdict.

"If anything, the result will be to solidify the American policy toward
Burma," said Walter Lohman of the Washington-based think-tank, the
Heritage Foundation.

The U.S. Campaign for Burma, which has called for a full U.N. arms embargo
on the country as a way to press China to stop its support for the junta,
and isolate the regime to get it to talk to the opposition, said it wanted
both sanctions and engagement.

"ASEAN has been reaching out to the regime now for 10 years, the U.N. has
sent envoys on some 40 trips -- but clearly engagement without sticks is
not working," Campaign's Jeremy Woodrum said.

The junta's move to extend Suu Kyi's house arrest was clearly aimed at
keeping her sidelined until the end of next year's planned election. Her
ability to mobilize thousands of people for rallies helped her party win
392 of the 485 seats in the 1990 election that was annulled by the
military.

The junta is on the final stage of its road map to democracy, culminating
in next year's vote, and with a constitution that enshrines a powerful
role for the military.

The junta might have become more responsive to international pressure
because it may want its new cabinet -- an ostensibly elected civilian one
but likely filled with retired generals -- to be acceptable to the outside
world, analysts said.

Instead of calling for an election with Suu Kyi's participation, the
international community should shift its focus to deal with a
post-election Myanmar, they said.

"From now until the elections, Aung San Suu Kyi won't be in the picture,"
said Pavin Chatchavalpongpun of the Institute of South East Asian Studies
in Singapore. "Why don't we sit down and try to think of policies of the
next government?

"Than Shwe may be thinking about leaving his legacy behind," Pavin said
referring to the junta supremo. "Whether he already has a political
successor in his mind, we don't know. But I am sure he has been thinking
about that."

(Additional reporting by Prapan Chankaew in Bangkok and Paul Eckert in
Washington; Editing by Bill Tarrant)