BurmaNet News, September 4, 2009

[Editor]

September 4, 2009 Issue #3791


INSIDE BURMA
Guardian (UK): Burma agrees to hear Aung San Suu Kyi's appeal against
house arrest
DVB: UN aid workers leave Burma conflict zone
Mizzima News: Shwe Ohn and ‘Third Force’ to ally

ON THE BORDER
New York Times: China fails to prevent Myanmar’s ethnic clashes
Mizzima News: Thailand issues passport to Burmese origami plane champion

REGIONAL
Irrawaddy: ILO turns spotlight on Burma to end forced labor

INTERNATIONAL
Reuters: UNHCR urges China grant access to Myanmar refugees

OPINION / OTHER
The Nation (Thailand): Burmese junta issues a warning to China
The Nation (Thailand): Are we seeing positive signals from the Burmese
generals? – Simon Tay




____________________________________
INSIDE BURMA

September 4, Guardian (UK)
Burma agrees to hear Aung San Suu Kyi's appeal against house arrest –
Justin McCurry

Judges to rule over pro-democracy activist's fate after her lawyers filed
petition against her detention

A Burmese court today offered a glimmer of hope that the country's
opposition leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, could be set free after it accepted
an appeal by her lawyers.

In a widely criticised decision, the Nobel peace laureate was given 18
months' house arrest on 11 August, after being found guilty of harbouring
an intruder at her lakeside mansion in Rangoon in May.

The capital's divisional court will hear the appeal on 18 September,
according to her lawyer, Nyan Win, who filed the appeal request yesterday.
"We are satisfied with the decision," he said.

Nyan Win said he was confident the appeal would be successful. "We are
very optimistic about the outcome of the appeals since these judgments
should have been passed all along," he said.

But an observer of the Burmese judicial system said the junta had invested
too much political capital in detaining Aung San Suu Kyi to reverse its
decision just weeks after she was convicted.

"This case is a political issue, not a legal one," said the retired legal
expert, speaking on condition of anonymity. "She was put under house
arrest because they don't want her to disrupt the elections. There is no
point in filing appeals in this kind of case in this country."

Aung San Suu Kyi's original sentence, of three years in prison with hard
labour, was almost immediately commuted on the orders of Burma's military
leader, Senior General Than Shwe.

The UN security council voiced "serious concern" at the verdict and the EU
extended sanctions against the regime.

Gordon Brown said the decision had left him "saddened and angry", while
Barack Obama, described the affair as a "show trial".

Two women who live with her were given similar sentences, while their
uninvited guest, John Yettaw, was sentenced to seven years in prison with
hard labour. Days later, the 53-year-old American, who suffers from
diabetes and epilepsy, was freed "on compassionate grounds" and sent back
to the US.

Yettaw, who is described by his family as eccentric, said he had visited
her home to warn her she was about to be assassinated.

He managed to evade a 24-hour police guard outside Aung San Suu Kyi's home
and refused to leave immediately, saying he felt too weak to swim back
across the lake.

Aung San Suu Kyi, who is now back at her home with her two companions,
plans to improve security at the dilapidated two-story building to deter
trespassers.

She may also seek official permission to meet an architect to discuss
other improvements, including converting one room into a library and
reading room, her lawyers said.

She returned from court after her conviction to find a barbed-wire fence
had been erected along a stretch of road leading to her home. Her lawyers
say the measures include reinforcing the upper floor balconies, which
currently have only glass doors.

____________________________________

September 4, Democratic Voice of Burma
UN aid workers leave Burma conflict zone – Nam Khan Kaew

United Nations staff have been allowed to leave the Kokang region in
northeastern Burma after being blocked by Burmese troops during recent
fighting with an armed ethnic group.

Aid workers had been distributing food and helping locals in a poppy
substitution programme in the town of Laogai in Shan state.

Heavy fighting broke out in the region between Burmese troops and a Kokang
ceasefire group on 27 August, which caused some 37,000 civilians to flee
to China.

Sources close to the UN’s World Food Programme staff in Kokang region said
that WFP staff in Laogai, along with aid workers from six other
oganisations, had been prevented from leaving the region.

Authorities reportedly feared that they might leak news about the
situation there and report human rights abuses committed by the military.

“When the fight started, all the roads and transportation routes in the
region were blocked so they were trapped in a UN compound and couldn’t
travel into town for next two or three days until the fight was over,”
said a WFP source.

The blockade has reportedly been eased now and 22 WFP staff have been
allowed to leave the region.

Other organizations with staff in Kokang include the Japan International
Cooperation Agency (JICA), World Vision and Association of Medical Doctors
of Asia.

The WFP has suspended its operations in the region following the outbreak
of fighting.

____________________________________

September 4, Mizzima News
Shwe Ohn and ‘Third Force’ to ally – Nem Davies

New Delhi – The veteran ethnic Shan politician Shwe Ohn, who will contest
the forthcoming 2010 general elections, said that he would forge an
alliance with a group of persons known as the Third Force.

His group the ‘Union Democracy Alliance’ formed in 2008 will have an
alliance with the five-member group popularly known in Burma as the ‘Third
Force’,  which has adopted a policy of equidistance  from both the
military regime and the main opposition party the ‘National League for
Democracy’. The new alliance group is now drafting and formulating its
electoral policy.

“Yes, we will form it when the election law is enacted and announced. In
future, it will be very difficult for us to work separately. We must
amalgamate with the broad minded and cooperate,” Shwe Ohn who attended the
historic Panlong Conference told Mizzima.

Those who join this new alliance are members of independent candidates’
network Nay Myo Wei, Htay Oo, Thein Tin Aung, Than Min Soe and Thaung Win.

“Now it’s 99 per cent sure. It’s difficult to contest as a lone party.
There are only few people who dare speak and stand alone. So we decided to
form an alliance,” Nay Myo Wei said.

“We do not have much difference with them in terms of policy. Anyone can
join this alliance if the basic policy is the same as it allows a broad
policy window. We have no plans to seize the top position as the founder.
We are ready to follow any powerful leader who will join us,” Shwe Ohn
said. Despite joining the alliance, he will maintain his own organization,
he added.

The so-called Third Force accepts the junta’s 2008 constitution and
believes that only a peaceful and smooth transition from military rule to
civilian rule is viable and practical.

“We do not hope to get executive power. It’s impossible. But we hope to
get into the legislative. We will get into the Parliament as Member of
Parliament,” Thein Tin Aung from the five-member group said.

“Some parties have idealistic hopes of having the Prime Minister’s post.
This is just an ideal. It’s impossible,” he added.

Their position is not to be stooges of the army and they will not oppose
the regime either.  They will also not follow the NLD. Neither will they
slander it, they said.

The NLD won a landslide victory in the 1990 general elections but the
ruling junta, which grabbed power in a coup, is still refusing to transfer
power to the party.

Shwe Ohn (86) wrote a book titled ‘Let’s build unbreakable Union’ which
has 17 chapters with 311 pages. He wrote on the migration route of ethnic
nationalities in Burma, emergence of Bagan Kingdom, the landmark Panlong
agreement and his views on the constitutions of Burma in the book.

The book was widely circulated among political activists in 2008 but the
censor board has not yet given permission for publication of the book.

He also wrote a book titled ‘How about the Third Union’ in 1993. In the
same year he was arrested and sentenced to one year in prison for
submitting the ‘8-States Union’ paper at the National Convention.

____________________________________
ON THE BORDER

September 4, New York Times
China fails to prevent Myanmar’s ethnic clashes – Michael Wines

BEIJING — China is Myanmar’s closest ally — almost its only one. It is
Myanmar’s chief defender in international forums, its major weapons
supplier, its largest foreign investor and a crucial backer of its ruling
military junta.

But in the wake of a recent clash between Myanmar’s army and ethnic
rebels, a rout that sent thousands of people streaming over the
mountainous border into China, analysts have begun to question how much
influence China has.

The answer may determine whether that brief battle grows into a much
bigger and deadlier war.

Although it tried, analysts, journalists and other experts say, China was
unable to dissuade Myanmar’s junta last month from sending thousands of
troops into the nation’s northern Kokang region, where they easily routed
about 1,500 armed rebels. The rebels had observed a cease-fire with
Myanmar’s government for nearly 20 years.

Now news reports say that the junta has sent 7,000 troops and 20 tanks
into a neighboring region known as Wa State, where a much larger rebel
force, the United Wa State Army, has been observing the same cease-fire.
The Wa forces, at least 20,000 strong and heavily armed, promise a fight
if attacked.

“We want peace, but we are not going to lay down our weapons and
surrender,” a rebel spokesman who called himself Su said by telephone on
Thursday. “We will not become the second Kokang.”

The recent fighting is the result of demands by the junta that the rebels
disarm and join a government-run border patrol. The ultimatum is widely
seen as an effort by the military rulers to defang their opponents in
advance of an election next year that they are billing as the first
democratic vote in more than 20 years.

China’s Foreign Ministry spokesman said Tuesday that Myanmar, long called
Burma, had “promised to restore peace and stability along the border,” and
some local news reports suggest that the confrontation in Wa State may yet
be defused. But there are also signs that China and Myanmar, so close for
two decades, are having differences.

“I’ve spoken to Chinese Foreign Ministry people, and they’re very
concerned about this hostile attitude Burma has,” said Aung Zaw, a Burmese
exile who is editor of The Irrawaddy, a magazine based in Thailand. “China
has given them political and diplomatic support. But when Burma wants to
put a stop to its own internal matters, they don’t care about anybody
else.”

That view is echoed by a number of Beijing-based political analysts and
scholars, some of whom have worried publicly that China may not have
enough clout to ward off a larger war that could send many more refugees
pouring into China. “They don’t always heed China’s advice,” said Shi
Yinhong, a professor of international relations at Renmin University in
Beijing. “China has so little leverage against them because China, in some
sense, depends on them.”

For decades, Myanmar has traded access to its ample natural resources and
to the Indian Ocean for political support from China. This month, Chinese
companies are set to start construction of a $2.5 billion
oil-and-natural-gas pipeline project that would run from the ocean to
Kunming, the capital of China’s neighboring province, Yunnan.

But China’s relations with Myanmar are not so straightforward. In an
earlier era, the Chinese gave money and arms to ethnic groups, including
the Wa and Kokang rebels, on Myanmar’s side of the border that were allied
with the Burmese Communist Party. Factionalism sank the party in the
1980s, and in 1989 Myanmar’s government struck a cease-fire with the
ethnic groups that has lasted until now.

While staying close to the military junta, the Chinese have also kept in
close touch with the ethnic groups, leaving the border open for trade,
family visits and no small amount of smuggling of arms and other
contraband.

As early as June, said one Beijing analyst, the Chinese government told a
ranking official in Myanmar’s government during a visit to Beijing that it
wanted to avoid conflict on the border. The warning was repeated in
August, when a team of officials from Yunnan traveled to Myanmar to meet
with government leaders, according to the analyst, who refused to be
identified for fear of retaliation from the Chinese government.

But some experts say they believe that the junta was nettled by China’s
tacit support for the ethnic groups, many of whom are ethnic Chinese, and
its refusal to close the border and cut off the groups’ economic lifeline.
Other experts say the junta’s internal political calculations, geared
toward a sweeping victory in the 2010 elections, trumped any diplomatic
concerns.

When battles broke out in Kokang, the Chinese government reacted with
unusual force, issuing a statement asking the junta to restore “regional
stability.” Unconfirmed new reports suggest that a senior Chinese military
official traveled to Myanmar early this week to assess the situation, and
that a delegation of five officials from Myanmar traveled Monday to
Kunming to meet with unidentified Chinese officials.

It is unclear whether China’s forcefulness will cause the junta to stand
down. But some believe Myanmar’s government sent its own signal in this
week’s edition of The Myanmar Times, a newspaper that, like all the press
there, reflects the leaders’ thinking. The paper carried an article
recording a visit to Taiwan by the Dalai Lama, the Tibetan spiritual
leader whom Beijing accuses of trying to foment rebellion against the
Chinese government.

The Asia Times, which first reported on the article, said it was the first
time in at least 20 years that the Dalai Lama’s name had appeared in
Myanmar’s press.

Li Bibo contributed research.
____________________________________

September 4, Mizzima News
Thailand issues passport to Burmese origami plane champion

Chaing Mai – The Thai government has issued a passport to a Burmese boy
born in Thailand so that he can join the origami plane competition to be
held in Japan soon.

Mong Thongdee (12) studying in a government school in Huay Sai, Chiang Mai
was issued travel documents for a single Thai-Japan round trip which holds
good for 90 days, Thai daily paper ‘The Nation’ reported in its website
today.

The government decided to issue travel documents to the Thai born Burmese
boy following a meeting by the Thai Interior Ministry, the Foreign Affairs
Ministry and the Security Council.

Mong Thongdee was born of Burmese migrant workers working in Chiang Mai.
His parents are ethnic Shan. Initially the Home Ministry refused to issue
travel documents to him.

Mong won the first prize in a paper aeroplane competition held in Bangkok
last year. His aeroplane could stay afloat for 12.5 seconds.

Following the competition he was entitled to join the Origami Airplane
competition to be held in Japan on September 19 and 20. If he gets a visa
to Japan, he is likely to leave Thailand on September 16.

Mong Thongdee could meet the Thai PM Abhisit Vejjajiva in the Parliament
House yesterday.

The Thai PM said that this was a good example of tackling stateless
children by Thai government departments.

The issuance of travel documents is based on human rights, mutual
understanding among the countries and international agreement reached by
Thailand, the District Administration Chief Vonset Sawadipanik said.

Ironically, Mong is still in the list of migrant workers who will be
deported in February next year, he added.

After the initial refusal by the Interior Ministry to issue travel
documents to the boy, the Thai Lawyer Council filed a case against the
Interior Ministry Minister Chaovarat Chaoviraku on charges of human rights
violation. Academics and human right activists also criticised  him for
human rights violation.

____________________________________
REGIONAL

September 4, Irrawaddy
ILO turns spotlight on Burma to end forced labor – Marwaan Macan-Markar

BANGKOK — The International Labour Organisation (ILO) is turning its
attention to a western corner of military-ruled Burma to end the scourge
of forced labor, which remains rampant in most parts of the Southeast
Asian nation.

On Sunday, the ILO will be hosting a rare meeting of judges, military
officers, police officers and members of the local labor department as
part of its effort to raise awareness aimed at ending a form of human
rights abuse that, at times, has included victims as young as 11.

"We hope to make presentations on international humanitarian law and raise
issues about forced labor, child soldiers and harassment," says Steve
Marshall, the ILO’s representative in Burma, also known as Myanmar. "This
is a positive step."

There are a lot of "policy conflicts" on this issue, Marshall told a small
group of journalists during a recent visit to Bangkok. "Even though we are
being permitted to have this event, the military see themselves as above
the law."

The weekend meeting in Sittwe, a port city in Burma’s Arakan state, close
to the Bangladesh border, will be the fifth of its kind the Geneva-based
labor organisation has held in Burma since July 2007.

The ILO’s efforts to make such inroads in a country ruled by a notoriously
stubborn and defiant regime—particularly in placing strict limits on
international agencies challenging its grip on power—have set this labor
rights body apart from other United Nations agencies and international
humanitarian organisations operating in Burma.

"The ILO is the only international organisation that has maintained
principled pressure and engagement of the Burmese regime," says David
Scott Mathieson, Burma consultant for Human Rights Watch, the New
York-based global rights lobby. "It has shown how international
organisations should deal with the Burmese government—that they will not
keep quiet about problems, yet keep engaging and trying to help improve
the situation."

At the same time, though, the concessions the military regime is offering
to the ILO is not a sign of a growing shift in policy aimed at ending the
forced labor problem, Mathieson tells IPS. "It is one of grudging respect.
If the Burmese government can get away with not dealing with the ILO, it
would do so."

The pressure on the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC), as the
military regime is formally known, stems from its running battles with the
ILO. In 2006, following reports that Burma was failing in its obligations
to the ILO to end forced labor, more pressure was turned on the SPDC.

The ILO’s members threatened to haul the country before the International
Court of Justice (ICJ) in The Hague for its record of abusive labor
practices. Burma would have been the first country to face such
humiliation had no changes been made on the ground.

One of the demands placed by the ILO was for Burma to have in place a
"credible mechanism for dealing with complaints of forced labor with all
necessary guarantees for the protection of complaints."

Yet, while the ILO office in Burma has developed a network to gather
information on incidents of forced labor, the mechanism for victims of the
abuse or their families to lodge complaints is far from perfect. "That
people are getting arrested when complaining is still a concern," admits
ILO’s Marshall. "Currently there are two people in jail for making
complaints to the ILO. They have been charged under the Official Secrets
Act." This law considers it an offence for any person to possess
information deemed classified by the state.

Also coming in the way of the ILO’s forced labor-reporting mechanism is
the junta preventing reader-friendly material about these human rights
violations being printed in local languages and distributed across the
country. Only the formal document, peppered with legal language, has been
approved for distribution.

The junta’s resolve to stop the forced labor network being dismantled
stems from how much the military culture depends on such abuse to achieve
its military and development ends. The more pervasive forms of forced
labor, some in almost slave-like conditions, include portering for the
military, cleaning army camps, building military structures and even
walking ahead of troops in areas infested with landmines.

"Forced labor and Burma is like the head and tail of a coin," states the
Federation of Trade Unions (Burma), a network of Burmese labor rights
activists operating in exile, including Thailand and the United States.
"Millions of people of Burma have been used for state projects of railroad
building, strategic road construction, army barrack building, army-run
businesses and (for the) agro-economy."

The Arakan state, where the ILO is hosting Sunday’s meeting, is notorious.
The victims are the state’s Rohingyas, an ethnic Muslim minority in
predominantly Buddhist Burma. They have been a victim of gross rights
violations, including restrictions to get married unless the state gives
approval. Familes are forced to work four days a week and have to plant
crops that the military orders.

Forced labor the Rohingyas are subject to during the ongoing monsoon
season has been documented in the paddy fields, planting physic nut trees
and rubber saplings, for road repair, states a recent report by The Arakan
Project, which monitors rights violations of the Rohingyas.

In addition, due to border tensions between Burma and Bangladesh, "the
Burmese regime suddenly brought shiploads of building material in order to
erect a border fence along the Bangladesh-Burma border," adds the Project
report, ‘Large Increase in Forced Labor along the Bangladesh-Burma Border:
Forced Labor Practices in North Arakan’. "By April large numbers of
villagers were then recruited to raise an embankment."

"This year forced labor in North Arakan has significantly increased mainly
due to the construction of the border fence along the Bangladesh-Burma
border and the sudden increase of army battalions along the border," says
Chris Lewa, author of the report and coordinator of the Project.

"Forced labor occurs throughout the year and usually follows a seasonal
pattern. In the dry season, villagers are mostly recruited for
construction work in military camps and repairing roads," she says.

Yet she doubts the ILO’s presence in the Arakan state will reduce the
suffering endured by the persecuted Rohingya minority. "Most Rohingyas
would not be aware of the ILO’s complaint mechanism, but even if they were
and would be ready to take the risk of lodging a complaint, they would be
unable to do so due to the restriction of movement imposed on them," Lewa
reveals in an interview. "They need to obtain permission even to travel to
a neighbouring village."

____________________________________
INTERNATIONAL

September 4, Reuters
UNHCR urges China grant access to Myanmar refugees

BEIJING – The United Nations refugee agency on Friday urged China to grant
it access to the Myanmar border, where thousands of people have fled over
the past week from fighting between Myanmar's army and rebels.
[ID:nSP481510]

Myanmar's successful offensive in Kokang against the rebel Myanmar
National Democratic Alliance Army, a local ethnic Chinese group, sparked
an exodus of about 37,000 refugees into China's neighbouring Yunnan
province last week.

Many are believed to have returned to Myanmar.

"Following reports of refugees fleeing fighting in Myanmar in recent
weeks, UNHCR has called on the Chinese authorities to allow us access to
the border area and has proposed a joint needs assessment so as to offer
support for any possible unmet needs," the U.N. agency said in a
statement.

"We hope this request will be positively considered as additional
displacement may occur in the region should the situation deteriorate in
the Wa State of Myanmar," it added, referring to another tense part of the
country.

While the UNHCR expressed its "deep appreciation" to China for allowing
the refugees in and looking after them, it said it would still like to
conduct its own survey of the area.

"As a protection agency, UNHCR wishes to visit these locations to assist
the government in the provision of humanitarian assistance and to
determine whether any of the people who remain there are in need of
international protection." (Reporting by Ben Blanchard; Editing by Alex
Richardson)

____________________________________
OPINION / OTHER

September 4, The Nation (Thailand)
Burmese junta issues a warning to China

The recent attack on a ethinc Chinese rebel force raises tensions in the
Golden Triangle

When it comes to the Burmese sector of the Golden Triangle, it is
difficult to say who are the good guys and who are the bad guys. This is
partly because they are all equally bad. As long as anybody can recall,
the triangle has never been for the faint of heart. Wa headhunters,
communist insurgents, opium warlords, heroin traffickers, Chinese crime
syndicates and the Burmese military government - one of the most condemned
regimes in the world - all play for keeps.

And so when fighting broke out last week between the Burmese junta and one
of the ceasefire groups, namely the Kokang outfit - who two decades ago
gave themselves the fancy but misleading name of the Myanmar National
Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) - unwanted attention was placed on China,
a quiet stakeholder in this rugged region. China, of course, prefers to
stay out of the spotlight when it comes to such matters.

It was not so much because tens of thousands of Kokang Chinese and others
fled into China; it was because China's influence in this highly contested
region is being weakened. This is not to mention the possibility of
further exposing the hush-hush relations between the communist giant and
the ethnic armies who were once, and to some extent continue to be, their
proxies. During the height of the communist insurgency, the Communist
Party of China funded and armed many of the insurgent groups in Burma. Red
Guards crossed the border to preach Marxism and succeeded in getting
groups like the Wa to give up headhunting in exchange for Kalashnikovs and
military fatigues. Burmese and Shan leftists also joined forces to be part
of a movement that promised to bring equality and justice to a land where
the ideas of law and order and the Western notion of the nation-state are
still very much alien concepts.

For various reasons, the movement didn't last. And in 1989 the Communist
Party of Burma (CPB) splintered along ethnic lines. Factions like the Wa
transformed, quickly becoming a new force for the Burmese government to
reckon with. Why not? They had enough weapons from the Chinese to last for
another decade or so.

Among the remnants of the CPB were the Kokang, the Yunnanese Chinese whose
territory fell on the Burmese side when the official Sino-Burma political
border was drawn. To neutralise the remnants of the CPB, Rangoon had to
move quickly. The then-security chief, Lt-General Khin Nyunt, was
dispatched to the Wa capital of Panghsang to sign a ceasefire deal with
the newly established United Wa State Army (UWSA).

Similar agreements were signed with other groups, including the Shan State
Army-North and the National Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA), a Mong
La-based outfit that even had Thai ladyboys performing for Chinese
day-trippers to the border casinos.

Part of the 1989 ceasefire deal was that these newly created ethnic armies
were permitted to administer their so-called Special Regions and were free
to carry out any business activities of their choice. Besides casinos
there were clandestine heroin factories.

Just a decade ago, methamphetamines came into the picture. The market for
these drugs is no longer just streets in Europe and the United States but
also Bangkok and other cities in Southeast Asia. China is not immune to
the drug problem, however. In terms of damage, one can argue that the
Chinese in Yunnan were the most affected when one takes into consideration
the number of heroin addicts and HIV-infected drug users, largely due to
the use of unclean needles.

But unlike leaders in Southeast Asia, Chinese leaders don't demonise these
drug armies that operate freely on the Burmese side of the border. This is
partly because of historical ties. Thai and foreign security analysts
think the Chinese are using these ethnic armies as pawns for a later day,
and a possible entry point into Burma. Why just court the Burmese junta
when you can court them all?

Beside the cost of having to look after the Kokang and other refugees
fleeing from the Burmese assault, China is also concerned that an unwanted
spotlight will be focused on cross-border activities that they would
rather keep off everyone's radar screen. These activities include the
laundering of drug money in businesses and real estate in China by the
leaders of these ethnic armies, many of whom rank high on the US's wanted
list, mainly for heroin trafficking.

The shooting in Kokang's Special Region 1 has now stopped and the
1,000-strong MNDAA force appears to be a thing of the past. The
20,000-strong UWSA could very well be next on the Burmese junta's hit
list.

Taking on the Kokang was a stern warning to the UWSA by the Burmese. It
was also a stern warning to the Chinese, and a blow to the long-standing
illusion that Beijing has the Burmese junta in the palm of its hand.
____________________________________

September 4, The Nation (Thailand)
Are we seeing positive signals from the Burmese generals? – Simon Tay

THE recent decision by Burma's government to sentence pro-democracy leader
Aung San Suu Kyi to a further 18 months' house arrest shows how difficult
it is to deal with that country's ruling generals. Yet the first steps
toward a new approach may already have been taken.

The clearest sign comes from Asean, of which Burma is a member. At first,
most of Asean's member governments responded mildly to the verdict,
expressing their "disappointment" - a stance that reflects the group's
principle of non-interference in fellow members' internal politics.

But Thai Foreign Minister Kasit Piromya then consulted his counterparts in
Cambodia, Indonesia, Singapore and Vietnam. As current Asean chair, he
floated the idea of concertedly requesting a pardon for Aung San Suu Kyi.

Asean government officials have since met to draft a text. Approval by
Asean's foreign ministers may come this month, with Asean leaders tackling
the issue in October.

Of course, amendments and objections to the draft should be expected. But
the pardon request is already significant. It seeks to be finely balanced,
respecting the regime's sovereignty while subtly pressing home the point
in unison, as neighbouring states. The request would be politely worded,
but it would also be an official and public mode of communication, instead
of the usual behind-the-scenes quiet diplomacy.

What Asean says or does not say will not change things immediately. Cynics
might add that even if Aung San Suu Kyi is pardoned, she may yet still be
detained on political grounds or face other barriers aimed at preventing
her from competing in the elections promised in Burma for 2010.

But Western sanctions have not worked either. Since the 1990s crackdown,
human rights violations have continued, most recently with the suppression
of protests led by Buddhist monks in 2007. The average citizen has grown
poorer, even as those close to the junta become ostentatiously rich.

Western sanctions instead paved the way for investments in Burma by those
with less concern about human rights violations - first by Asean
neighbours in hotels and other sectors, and more recently by China and
India, which are vying for projects and influence in the strategic energy
sector. As a result, Burma's generals have been able to play one side off
against another.

The game, however, may now be changing. Asean's initiative is a new step
forward for the group. While Asean rejected previous calls to impose
sanctions, or even to expel Burma, this step shows that it will not remain
inert regardless of what the generals do. Moreover, some Asean member
countries, like Singapore, have explicitly called for Aung San Suu Kyi to
be allowed to participate in the 2010 elections.

The Asean effort coincides with two other developments. One is the
decision by the United States to reconsider its policy of sanctions,
becoming more flexible while remaining true to its values and interests.

Some activists have criticised US Senator Jim Webb's journey to Rangoon to
obtain the release of John Yettaw, the American whose actions triggered
the charges against Aung San Suu Kyi. But this is consistent with the
Obama administration's policy of seeking a dialogue even with those who
are not America's friends. Such dialogue is vital if Burma is to be
prevented from possibly pursuing nuclear weapons and rigging elections,
เ la Iran.

The other development is less obvious. After the court delivered its
verdict, the regime halved the sentence and agreed to keep Aung San Suu
Kyi under house arrest, rather than moving her to one of its worst jails.
This may not seem like much of a concession. But the junta seems to be
trying to cause less offence.

Consider, too, the junta's gesture in handing over Yettaw to Senator Webb,
and its interaction with the international community on humanitarian
assistance after Cyclone Nargis. Might it be possible that the generals in
Burma recognise that they are in a cul-de-sac? Could the regime be seeking
ways out of its isolation in the run-up to the 2010 elections? Could it
welcome dialogue and engagement?

How the generals respond to the Asean request will be an important signal
of the regime's intentions. Even if the regime does want to begin talking,
sustaining a dialogue will be no easier than has been the case with North
Korea.

Asean, as the organisation of neighbouring states, is important to
achieving that goal, but US involvement is key, as is inclusion of China
and India. They must be pressed to see more than the opportunity for
strategic access to energy and other natural resources. Japan, too - still
the largest Asian economy and a traditional donor to the region - must
also play a role.

A moral but pragmatic community needs to be constructed, with all in
agreement on how to deal with Burma. Even if, like an orchestra, different
countries use different instruments and play different notes, the main
theme must be consistent.

If this can be done, the chances of progress in the run-up to the 2010
elections will be strengthened. Success may still prove elusive, but a new
game with a greater possibility for success will have begun.

Simon Tay is chairman of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs
and a fellow of the Asia Society.