From editor at burmanet.org Thu Oct 29 13:59:19 2009 From: editor at burmanet.org (Editor) Date: Thu, 29 Oct 2009 13:59:19 -0400 (EDT) Subject: BurmaNet News, October 29, 2009 Message-ID: <28176.63.173.78.131.1256839159.squirrel@webmail5.pair.com> October 29, 2009 Issue #3829 INSIDE BURMA RFA: ?Wave of arrests? in Burma Irrawaddy: Suu Kyi ?keenly monitoring? Campbell visit ON THE BORDER SHAN: Mongla told to resign itself to border guard status BUSINESS / TRADE SifyNews (India): ONGC to invest $174 mn in Myanmar INTERNATIONAL Mizzima News: Nobel Laureates call for action on Burma OPINION / OTHER BBC News: Is Burma softening its stance? ? Alastair Leithead The Pioneer via Hindustan Times (India): Burma lives in turmoil Mizzima News: ASEAN leaders allow Burma to get off scot-free ? Larry Jagan PRESS RELEASE TBBC: Rising instability in Eastern Burma HRW: Japan: Protect Burmese Rohingya seeking asylum ____________________________________ INSIDE BURMA October 29, Radio Free Asia ?Wave of arrests? in Burma Bangkok ? Burma?s military junta has stepped up detentions of its political opponents and social activists in recent weeks, with as many as 50 people arrested in the last month, according to activists and residents. ?In recent days, they have been arresting mainly journalists and former prisoners,? said Ko Tak Naing, secretary of the rights group Association for Assistance to Political Prisoners (AAPP), which is based in the Thai-Burmese border region. ?Amongst the journalists, we are certain at least 10 have been arrested,? he said. ?They are journalists such as Ko Soe Moe, Ko Nyi Nyi Tun, and Khan Min Htet, who have been arrested in the last few days.? Reasons unclear While activists and local people are unsure of the reason behind the apparent crackdown, some say it is linked to stepped-up security measures around the former capital, Rangoon. Other reported detainees included two young journalists and seven young men who were actively involved in private relief efforts in the wake of last year?s devastating Tropical Cyclone Nargis. Journalists Ko Thant Zin Soe from The Voice weekly magazine and freelance journalist Ko Paing Soe Oo are believed to have been detained around midnight on Oct. 27, sources in Rangoon said. Further detentions were reported at Rangoon?s Cultural University, according to a resident there. ?They all live in the Sittaung housing estate in the Yuzana Garden city,? said a woman at the university. ?They were all students attending the university.? At first the detentions were linked to the students? failure to register as overnight guests, but local authorities denied carrying out any inspections in the area, she said. ?We don?t know why they say this. But they did take the youths away,? she said. Nargis links The seven students are all believed to have been working with a social organization called Lin Let Kyair, formed two years ago after Nargis killed an estimated 140,000 people. Villagers in the worst-hit regions said they have been unable to rebuild their lives in the wake of the storm, which left millions with no home or livelihood. Local and overseas aid workers said Burma?s ruling military junta deliberately blocked aid to victims of Nargis, and failed to ensure that fields were ploughed in time for the harvest. It has also jailed a number of private citizens, some of them well-known, for aiding cyclone victims. Lin Let Kyair is a nonprofit voluntary social organization that has been helping victims in poverty-stricken villages to dig wells, build schools and libraries, and provide educational assistance for children. New checkpoints Rangoon residents said a series of checkpoints had been springing up around Rangoon in recent weeks, with travelers and former political prisoners under close surveillance. ?In recent days the police have been stopping cars and checking them out in front of the Tamwe High School,? said the Rangoon resident who lives near the Cultural University. ?They have been asked to open their trunks. Also at the entrance to Yuzana Garden they would stop cars and inspect the belongings of the occupants,? she said. ?They are doing the same at the Central Mall, and in Rangoon at the traffic light at the front of the [opposition National League for Democracy] office,? she added. Authorities were also keeping a close watch on the activities of 7,000 former prisoners, especially those who were political prisoners, who were released in a recent amnesty. ?Their houses have been specifically picked for search and inspection by the police,? she said. Original reporting in Burmese by Ingjin Naing and Son Moe Wai. Burmese service director: Nancy Shwe. Translated by Soe Thinn. Written for the Web in English by Luisetta Mudie. Edited by Sarah Jackson-Han. ____________________________________ October 29, Irrawaddy Suu Kyi ?keenly monitoring? Campbell visit ? Wai Moe and Ko Htwe Burma?s pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi said that she is keenly monitoring the planned visit to Burma of a US delegation to be led by Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Kurt Campbell, according to a lawyer who met with Suu Kyi on Thursday. ?She told us during the meeting today that she is keenly monitoring Mr Campbell?s upcoming visit and is interested in when he will come and what he will do in Burma,? Nyan Win, Suu Kyi?s lawyer, told The Irrawaddy on Thursday. Campbell said last week that a US delegation will visit Burma in the coming weeks. The US State Department announced that Campbell will lead the delegation, which intends to open a new round of talks with Burma?s military leaders. However, Suu Kyi did not make further comment on Campbell?s trip, Nyan Win said. Nyan Win and another lawyer, Kyi Wynn, were permitted by Burmese authorities to meet Suu Kyi for about 90 minutes on Thursday afternoon. Nyan Win said Suu Kyi discussed the appeal pending over her current term of house arrest. Campbell is expected to meet with Suu Kyi, ethnic leaders and government officials, including U Thaung, the minister of science and technology and former Burmese ambassador to Washington who met with the assistant US foreign secretary in September in New York. However, whether Campbell will meet with Burma?s military chief Snr-Gen Than Shwe is still unclear as Than Shwe is scheduled to visit Sri Lanka in November. After a Burma policy review, the US State Department announced in September that the US will have direct engagement with the Burmese junta while US sanctions on Burma will be maintained. Suu Kyi met with a US representative in Rangoon earlier this month to talk about the impact of US sanctions on the Burmese regime and the country at large. Thursdays? was the first meeting between Suu Kyi and her lawyers since Oct. 16. Rangoon Northern District Court rejected on Oct. 2 Suu Kyi?s appeal against an 18-month extension of her house arrest on charges related to the intrusion of an American man onto her property. ____________________________________ ON THE BORDER October 29, Shan Herald Agency for News Mongla told to resign itself to border guard status Army-Eastern Shan State (NDAA-ESS), based at Mongla, opposite China?s Daluo, was ?advised? yesterday by Naypyidaw?s chief negotiator to resign itself to the Border Guard Force (BGF) status, according to an informed source on the Thai-Burma border. ?We stand by the letter you wrote to us on 23 September,? Lt-Gen Ye Myint was quoted as saying. According to the source, who had not seen the letter, Mongla had agreed to accept the BGF proposal as offered by Naypyidaw. ?It was largely a monologue, with all the Mongla people listening to Ye Myint, with scarcely an opportunity to express their opinions,? he said. Practically all of Mongla?s own counter proposals were rejected by the junta, such as: ? To become a militia force, where there will be no junta officers to run the show ? To conduct the military trainings in Mongla territory ? To include its Hsaleu (which, according to Naypyidaw, is in Mongyan township) and Nampan (which, according to Naypyidaw, is included in Mongyawng) in Mongla township The Mongla leadership will be holding another meeting with its main ally United Wa State Army (UWSA) before making its final decision, said the source. The question remains whether the Wa, who have lost their northern border with Kokang to the Burma Army, is ready to let go its southern border with Mongla. ____________________________________ BUSINESS / TRADE October 29, SifyNews (India) ONGC to invest $174 mn in Myanmar The overseas arm of Oil and Natural Gas Corp (ONGC) has been allowed to make an investment of up to $173.85 million in a hydrocarbon assets in Myanmar. The decision was taken at a meeting of the Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs presided over by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. The investment has been approved for gas blocks blocks A-1 and A-3 in Myanmar Natural Gas Development Project by ONGC Videsh Ltd (OVL). The two companies that will benefit from the award of contract are OVL and GAIL India, both state-owned firms under the administrative control of India's petroleum and natural gas ministry. The investment is expected to provide additional reserve accretion of hydrocarbons and facilitate production and marketing of natural gas. ____________________________________ INTERNATIONAL October 29, Mizzima News Nobel Laureates call for action on Burma ? Mungpi New Delhi - Two Nobel Peace Laureates, Jody Williams and Mairead Maguire, on Thursday reiterated their call for the immediate release of fellow Burmese Nobel Peace Laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, saying without her release there cannot be genuine change in Burma and the ruling junta?s promises of reform would be only ?sweet words of democracy?. Jody Williams, who won the 1997 Nobel Peace Prize for her efforts in banning landmines, during a press conference on Thursday in New Delhi, urged the international community and particularly the United States, which recently announced a new policy of engagement with Burma, to turn engagement into action and bring genuine change and democracy to the plighted Southeast Asian country. ?My personal concern about words and not action is that we hear many ?sweet words of democracy and change?. Sweet words are terrific, but if it fails to bring change then it is a waste,? Williams remarked. Williams said the U.S. and the European Union, if they choose to engage the Burmese regime, must ensure human rights conditions in the country are improving and should not start talking about an end to sanctions prior to the release of opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi. The U.S. in September announced a new policy on Burma, saying it will directly engage the Burmese junta while maintaining existing sanctions, which could be phased-out or tightened depending on the junta?s response to human rights violations. Williams, who in February 2003 was allowed a rare meeting with Aung San Suu Kyi, said the regime must prove their words by setting the Burmese democracy icon free and allowing her and her party to participate in the upcoming elections by conducting a review of the 2008 Constitution. Burmese Prime Minister Thein Sein over the weekend told his Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) counterparts he is hopeful that Aung San Suu Kyi can play a role in national reconciliation and that his government might consider releasing her from detention if she maintains a ?good attitude?. Mairead Maguire, who won the 1976 Nobel Peace Prize for her work to bring peace to Northern Ireland, warned ASEAN not to be too full of praise for the Burmese junta and instead focus on pressuring the regime for real changes inside the country. ?The lack of human rights in Burma is a global responsibility ? and it is time to pressure Burma to make real change,? Maguire commented. Maguire added that Burma can only go forward once it hears the voices of ethnic political groups and human rights and democracy prevail. The Laureates, in a press statement, said they support the call of civil society for ?real change? in the lead-up to the elections in 2010, strongly arguing there can be no credible polling without the release of Aung San Suu Kyi and the over 2,000 political prisoners. Williams and Maguire, along with Nobel Peace Laureate Shirin Ebadi from Iran, are in India?s capital New Delhi at the invitation of His Holiness the Dalai Lama to mark the 50th anniversary of Tibetans in exile. While in New Delhi, the Laureates are also meeting with women from Burma living in exile in New Delhi. ?We are asking governments to listen to the voice of the people ? and support nonviolent change and democracy in Burma,? said Maguire. ____________________________________ OPINION / OTHER October 29, BBC News Is Burma softening its stance? ? Alastair Leithead This month Burma's pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi passed two milestones. The first was 14 years - that is the amount of time she has now spent in detention during the past two decades. The second was to meet Western diplomats and begin talks with Burmese military leaders - talks which some think could see her released. "Given the impasse of the last 20 years, what has happened in the last three months gives us the hope there will be some movement," says Derek Tonkin, a former British ambassador and current Burma activist. There seemed little hope of progress in August, when Burmese pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi, known as The Lady, had her house arrest extended by 18 months for allowing an uninvited American man to stay in her lakeside home after swimming to see her. While the controversial court case was going on, the Obama adminstration was looking at engagement within a review of its Burma strategy ahead of elections planned for Burma next year. This was happening amid the fear of increasing Chinese influence in the gap left by Western isolation. 'Pragmatic engagement' Soon after the trial ended, Senator Jim Webb became the most senior US official to meet Burma's top general, Than Shwe. He was also allowed to see Aung San Suu Kyi - something even UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon could not do. As a man reporting back directly to President Barack Obama, his message that "sanctions hadn't worked" was what the generals wanted to hear. He emphasised the increased influence of China as well - an Asia-wide trend that has Washington worried. The next step was a switch in US policy towards "pragmatic engagement" - in other words, direct senior level dialogue with the leadership. US demands include the release of political prisoners, including Ms Suu Kyi, but what are they offering in return? The only high-value card is sanctions, and that is what The Lady also used to open her own talks. Her recent letter to number one general Than Shwe requested a meeting with Western diplomats for her to establish what sanctions are in place, and it was permitted within a week. "The generals are looking for international recognition for the 2010 election. They are trying to co-opt Aung San Suu Kyi and her National League for Democracy to take part in the elections without any constitutional change," said Derek Tonkin. "We are still waiting for a really significant movement, but I could see Aung San Suu Kyi being released before the election if they could secure an understanding." An end to sanctions? The message from Burma's Prime Minister Thein Sein at the recent meeting of the Association of South East Asian Nations (Asean) in Thailand was that the ruling generals see a role for Ms Suu Kyi in fostering reconciliation, according to Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva - and that the conditions of her detention could be relaxed. Thant Myint-U, a Burmese historian and author whose grandfather was UN Secretary General U Thant, thinks her early release is possible but unlikely. He believes the purpose of the talks is partly to find out what exactly the Burmese want. "It is extremely unlikely the US Congress will overturn sanctions, but if the US government thinks the Burma generals are moving in the right direction there are other things they can do," he said. "Everything from using the name Myanmar, rather than Burma, to lifting some of the restrictions the US has on multilateral co-operation to assistance programmes." US Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell made it clear that dialogue would supplement rather than replace sanctions. "We will maintain our existing sanctions until we see concrete progress," he told the US House Committee on Foreign Affairs this month. "We believe any easing of sanctions now would send the wrong signal to those who have been striving for so many years for democracy in Burma." Europe's stance Mark Farmaner, from Burma Campaign UK, which has strongly supported sanctions, said the US policy of demanding results is what the UN has failed to do, and will put extreme pressure on the regime. "Sanctions were always meant to be one of the few tools to give them leverage to force the generals into talks, but they should not be given away unless you get something in return," he said. "One hundred political prisoners of more than 2,000 are seriously ill and being systematically refused medical treatment. The regime is ruthlessly pushing ahead with its agenda. You have to look at history and come back down to earth. "We are afraid of EU countries pre-emptively lifting sanctions and that would send the wrong message to the generals," he added. There doesn't appear to be much fear of that, as the European Union still has not made an official statement. Some sources suggest this is because Britain is "dragging its heels" and urging collective caution. But Western diplomats say Europe will soon open up its own dialogue with Burma, following the US lead. "The elections may not be free and fair, but we need to be there anyway," diplomats say, pointing out it's the first opportunity in 20 years for any change at all, and the West has to position itself to engage with a new government made up of at least some elected civilians. So does that mean lifting some European sanctions? Only in co-ordination with the US policy, but it's understood consideration is being put to the mechanics of what might be lifted and when. This could include the re-opening to Burma of special EU trade access for developing countries, or allowing access to international financial institutions like the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund and the Asian Development Bank. Author Thant Myint-U thinks the ruling generals will balance their image abroad and better relations with the West against their well-established plans for a "democratic" Burma. "There is concern among some quarters in Burma of an over-reliance on China, and as the US is the only balancer they think it is time to reach out to the US," he said. Progress is slow, but as one diplomat said "anything can happen in Burma". ____________________________________ October 29, The Pioneer via Hindustan Times (India) Burma lives in turmoil India -- The saga of Aung San Suu Kyi's non-violent struggle for democracy in Burma defies known descriptions of political courage, and with the country's military rulers now deciding to use her 'legal status' to their advantage in an unusual and clearly one-sided game of chess to restore 'democracy', the Nobel Peace Prize laureate faces a qualitatively new challenge to continue her non-violent struggle for democracy. The deplorable guilty verdict handed out to Ms Suu Kyi in a case where she was accused of violating the country's security laws indicates the extreme lengths that Burma's military rulers are willing to go to keep her out of public and political life and are bent on a collision course.The denial of freedom again to the Nobel laureate by a kangaroo court in Burma is outrageous and deserves to be condemned in the strongest of terms.The Burmese junta's act of 'reducing' her sentence to another 18 months of house arrest - after a court sentenced her to three years of detention - is doubly outrageous. It is obvious that the junta is nervous. It wants to keep Ms Suu Kyi out of next year's polls. Although junta had been forced by the international community to hold election to the country's Parliament next year, the manner in which it organised a constitutional referendum last year to pave the way for the poll gave enough indications about its intentions. But the experience of the 1990 election, swept by Ms Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy and annulled by the junta, has made the latter nervous. It does not want to take any chances and will now use the verdict in order to keep her out of next year's poll, thus denying its people democracy and the rule of law. Her long years under house arrest shows that the junta cares little about international opinion. Even threats of sanctions by the United Nations have not worked mainly because of opposition by China and sometimes Russia for which both the communist countries should be condemned. The UN and other countries specially the US and the UK can help the cause of democracy in Burma only by putting more pressure on its leaders and their allies elsewhere, instead of doing business with the junta. Next year's scheduled parliamentary election provides one such opportunity.The world must use diplomatic and other means to ensure that the junta's will does not prevail yet again. Published by HT Syndication with permission from Pioneer. ____________________________________ October 29, Mizzima News ASEAN leaders allow Burma to get off scot-free ? Larry Jagan A smug Burmese delegation, led by Prime Minister and General Thein Sein, are back home after attending the 15th annual ASEAN summit in Thailand, where they successfully accomplished their main mission ? to deflect international criticism and pressure, reveal nothing about the forthcoming elections and keep a very low-profile. For the first time in years, the issue of Burma did not dominate the proceedings of the regional summit. In fact, the presidential statement on Burma was the mildest it has been for nearly a decade. All the leaders could agree on was to say that the regional organization hoped Burma?s national reconciliation process would be inclusive. "We underscored the importance of achieving national reconciliation and that the general elections to be held in Myanmar [Burma] in 2010 must be conducted in a fair, free, inclusive and transparent manner in order to be credible to the international community," read the president?s statement at the end of the summit. Instead of being grilled by fellow Asian leaders at the various meetings ? bilateral encounters, formal sessions, retreats and dinners ? the Burmese leaders could sit quietly at their tables and keep mum. This was a result in no small way determined by the simmering dispute between Thailand and Cambodia, which dominated the meeting. Cambodia?s Prime Minister Hun Sen took the limelight when he told journalists as soon as he arrived at the summit on Friday that the self-exiled former Thai Prime Minister, Thaksin Shinawatra, was just like Burma?s pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi. As a result, the testy relations between the current Thai prime minister and the Cambodian leader did Thein Sein a favor ? as he was almost left alone, except for Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao, who wanted to remind Burma that they had promised to make sure their common border remained calm after the recent fighting in northern Burma and the mass exodus of thousands of Kokang refugees into Yunnan some two months ago. Prime Minister Thein Sein and Foreign Minister Nyan Win also repeatedly dodged journalists waiting on the sidelines of the meeting in the southern Thai resort area of Cha-am. While every other delegation gave press briefings and interviews, the Burmese delegation refused every opportunity. Impact of U.S. policy review But some things did emerge from these meetings that may have an impact on the Burmese democracy roadmap and the forthcoming elections. There is certainly a recognition that the international situation regarding Burma has shifted significantly since the United States announced its policy review last month, suggesting the way forward as a combination of dialogue and sanctions. ?We are aware of a new era of hope and that there will be some normalization of relations between Burma and the United States, which we welcome,? Indian Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh told Mizzima when asked about India?s policy towards Burma on the last day of the summit. Thailand?s Prime Minister, Abhisit Vejjajiva, was even more forthright, preferring to see the U.S. move as a vindication of the region?s soft approach to Burma. "ASEAN has always argued that engagement is the right approach. We feel that if everybody takes this approach we would be encouraging Myanmar [Burma] in her successful implementation of her own roadmap [to democracy]," Abhisit told journalists. With the ASEAN summit coming only weeks after the U.S. announcement, it was always going to be easy for the Burmese delegation. And they seemed to know it ? being the first delegation to arrive in Hua Hin, early in the afternoon a day early. Meanwhile, the U.S. offer of dialogue with the regime has thrown other actors within the international community into disarray, raising increasing questions about how the U.N. and ASEAN can help Burma?s reconciliation process. For the U.N., it would seem this is the end of the road. But there may still be a role for ASEAN, and China certainly is keen to stay involved. Election law coming So what emerged from the Burmese delegation? The most important message Thein Sein seems to have brought from the Burma?s military leader, Senior General Than Shwe, was that the electoral law is being completed ? though most analysts believe it was actually finished at least a year ago, if not much earlier ? and will soon be made public. ?General Thein Sein said the electoral law will be announced very soon,? Abhisit told Mizzima after his bilateral meeting with the Burmese leader on the first day of the summit. But the Burmese Prime Minister provided no further details, he added. Not really news. Everyone in Rangoon understands the electoral law is ready and should be published soon; though it seems certain it has been delayed by the recent U.S. policy review, as Than Shwe decides on a revised game plan. What is also clear is that all Asia wants to see real national reconciliation take place in Burma and for that to happen the elections next year will have to be inclusive, fair and free. ?The Myanmar [Burmese] government says the election next year will be inclusive, free and fair,? Thailand?s Foreign Minister, Kasit Piromya, told Mizzima after he and the Thai Premier met their counterparts in the first bilateral t?te-?-t?te of the summit. But the ASEAN leaders had obviously made up their minds before the summit that whatever the Burmese regime said they would spin as best possible. ?There?s been progress towards national reconciliation and movement on the roadmap recently,? Thailand?s Foreign Minister said in response to a question from Mizzima. ?There?s been 7,000 political prisoners released,? added the Thai Foreign Minister, ?or at least that is the figure I heard.? Of course, according to the Burmese regime there are no political prisoners. In any case, of the 7,114 prisoners released, less than 250 were political prisoners, according to human rights groups that monitor the situation in Burma. The other signs of progress towards national reconciliation that Thein Sein, at every opportunity, offered his counterparts, was that dialogue is taking place with detained opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi. ?She has been able to meet the government [Labor Minister Aung Kyi] twice recently, and several diplomats. This is movement,? Kasit boldly told Mizzima. However, few in Burma would agree with him. But apparently all the heads of state and foreign ministers, including the Indian representatives, preferred to look on the bright side and accept the regime?s protestations at face value. Aung San Suu Kyi But what of the fate of the pro-democracy leader and Nobel Peace laureate? There Thein Sein played his best cards ? using innuendos and implications to put the best possible spin on her intolerable situation, even though the opposition leader was recently sentenced to a further 18 months under house arrest on trumped up charges stemming from a security breach related to an unwanted visit by U.S. citizen John Yettaw to Suu Kyi?s estate. Some diplomats even said Thein Sein never actually used The Lady?s name in any of the meetings, though still apparently convincing at least the Thai Prime Minister that the military government had not ruled out a role for her. ?[Thein Sein] briefed us on some of the dialogue that is taking place and he feels optimistic that she can contribute also to the process of national reconciliation," Abhisit told a press conference at the end of the summit. This follows an even more optimistic account of Thein Sein?s views a day earlier by Kazuo Kodama, the official spokesperson for Yukio Hatoyama, the Japanese Prime Minister. ?She is under house arrest and the Prime Minister [said] if she continues to take a good attitude then it is possible that there will be a relaxation of the measures on her,? Kodama told journalists at his press conference in Hua Hin. ?Myanmar's [Burma?s] government believes that Aung San Suu Kyi seems to have softened her attitude towards the authorities,? said the Japanese spokesperson following Thein Sein?s briefing of an ASEAN+3 meeting, which includes China, Japan and South Korea in addition to the ten ASEAN members. Kodama said that the Burmese regime "thinks if Aung San Suu Kyi maintains a good attitude it is possible that the Myanmar [Burma] authorities will relax the current measures.? Elections are the answer In the end, Asia?s leaders all seemed to agree that next year?s the planned elections will be the panacea for all Burma?s ills. Dr. Manmohan Singh told Mizzima that all the problems in Burma ? a possible civil war with ethnic groups, human rights abuses and even the growing border tension with Bangladesh ? would be solved through next year?s elections. While less sanguine, most other Asian leaders also opted to put their faith in the next year?s planned elections. At the foreign ministers private dinner on Thursday night, Nyan Win assured his ASEAN counterparts that the election would meet the standards demanded by the international community, according to diplomats who attended the function. Thein Sein is also quoted by those who heard his briefing that next year?s election will be inclusive ? though he never mentioned whether that means Aung San Suu Kyi would be freed and able to stand. The ASEAN approach seems to be to give the Burmese junta enough rope to hang themselves. This is the regime?s last chance: they promised free and fair elections, so they will be held accountable for that. The buzzword though is ?credible?. ?They [Burma?s military rulers] recognize full well that we expect to see inclusive and credible elections,? said Abhisit. And we stand ready to help them in whatever way they want.? China, of course, privately wants the same thing. ?China adheres to the principle of national reconciliation and unity, by promoting political dialogue and consultation between the government and the opposition,? said Dr. Li Xuecheng at the Chinese Institute of Strategic Studies. ?China is willing to work together with all the relevant parties, including opposition political parties, to make the 2010 elections a success.? More than 200 Chinese government and private companies along China?s southeast coastal strip are planning to invest heavily in Burma after deciding Vietnam does not offer the investment incentives that Burma does. But they are all waiting for the elections, which they hope will bring about a new era of legitimacy and stability, according to Chinese academics and diplomats based in the region who closely follow Burmese affairs. So, while the Burmese delegation may have slinked away from the ASEAN summit relatively unscathed this time, they may now find it impossible to meet the region?s expectations. But ASEAN?s approach of giving the regime the benefit of the doubt should worry the master military tactician in Naypyitaw. There is a limit to how often he can pull the wool over his neighbors? eyes, and this is surely it. On the other hand, if the ASEAN approach helps to make next years? elections inclusive, free and fair, it will prove to be an astute diplomatic move. The fear remains, however, because of past precedents, that ASEAN?s leaders simply wanted to avoid confrontation. ____________________________________ PRESS RELEASE October 29, Thailand Burma Border Consortium Rising instability in Eastern Burma Bangkok - During this sixtieth anniversary year of the Geneva Conventions, Israel?s military assault on Gaza and Sri Lanka?s refusal to distinguish between Tamil combatants and civilians have been high profile challenges to the relevance of international humanitarian law. Out of the media spotlight, the Burmese Army similarly persists in breaking the rules of war by indiscriminately attacking civilians and causing massive displacement. Indeed, aid agencies report that threats to human security in eastern Burma are increasing. ?After 25 years of responding to the consequences of conflict in eastern Burma, it is tragic to see the causes remain unaddressed and the situation is likely to further deteriorate during the next twelve months. A recent influx of refugees into Thailand and monitoring reports from internally displaced communities indicate that violence and abuse in eastern Burma are increasing?, said Jack Dunford, Executive Director of the Thailand Burma Border Consortium (TBBC). TBBC is an alliance of twelve aid agencies from ten countries working to provide food, shelter, non-food items and capacity building support to Burmese refugees and displaced persons. The humanitarian agency has just released findings from field surveys about conflict and displacement conducted with over 3,100 households during the past 5 years in rural areas of eastern Burma. The main threats to human security in eastern Burma are related to militarisation. Military patrols and landmines are the most significant and fastest growing threat to civilian safety and security, while forced labour and restrictions on movement are the most pervasive threats to livelihoods. Trend analysis suggests that the threats to both security and livelihoods have increased during the past five years. Over 3,500 villages and hiding sites in eastern Burma have been destroyed or forcibly relocated since 1996, including 120 communities between August 2008 and July 2009. The scale of displaced villages is comparable to the situation in Darfur and has been recognised as the strongest single indicator of crimes against humanity in eastern Burma. At least 75,000 people were forced to leave their homes during this past year, and more than half a million people remain internally displaced. The highest rates of recent displacement were reported in northern Karen areas and southern Shan State. Almost 60,000 Karen villagers are hiding in the mountains of Kyaukgyi, Thandaung and Papun Townships, and a third of these civilians fled from artillery attacks or the threat of Burmese Army patrols during the past year. Similarly, nearly 20,000 civilians from 30 Shan villages were forcibly relocated by the Burmese Army in retaliation for Shan State Army-South (SSA-S) operations in Laikha, Mong Kung and Keh Si Townships. Thailand?s National Security Council recently acknowledged it was preparing for another mass influx of refugees due to conflict in Burma?s border areas leading up to the proposed elections in 2010. Conflict has already intensified in Karen State with over 4,000 Karen refugees fleeing into Thailand during June. The increased instability is related to demands that ethnic ceasefire groups transform into Border Guard Forces under Burmese Army command. Such pressure has already resulted in the resumption of hostilities in the Kokang region which caused 37,000 civilians to flee into China. ?The breakdown of 20 year old ceasefire agreements reflects how the Burmese junta?s ?road map to democracy? offers no political settlement for the ethnic minority groups. Whether next year?s elections provide a small window of opportunity or merely entrench military rule, there is an urgent need to address ethnic grievances in order to promote national reconciliation and solutions for displaced persons?, said Mr Dunford. Enquiries : Sally Thompson (+66) 022385027, or (+66) 0898508457 ?Protracted Displacement and Militarisation in Eastern Burma? is available from www.tbbc.org/resources/resources.htm ____________________________________ October 29, Human Rights Watch Japan: Protect Burmese Rohingya seeking asylum Japan's new administration should protect Burmese Rohingya asylum seekers in Japan and press Burma to end abuses against the minority group, eight Japanese and international organizations said today. The groups sent a joint letter to the newly inaugurated justice minister, Keiko Chiba, and foreign minister, Katsuya Okada. "Tokyo's silence sends a message to Burma's generals that their horrendous persecution of the Rohingya can continue," said Kanae Doi, Tokyo director at Human Rights Watch. "Japan's new government should urgently review its policies to protect the Rohingya both in Japan and in Burma." The organizations urged Chiba to rescind deportation orders that would return asylum seekers to Burma and to grant Special Residential Permits to Rohingya in Japan. Over the past decade, more than 110 Rohingya have made their way to Japan, mainly by air, and petitioned the Japanese government for asylum. While there have been no reports of forcible repatriation of Rohingya asylum seekers to Burma, many Rohingya in Japan have been denied refugee status, detained, and issued deportation orders. The organizations called upon Okada to press the Burmese military government to end human rights violations against the Rohingya and grant them full citizenship rights. Abuses against the Rohingya include extrajudicial killings, forced labor, religious persecution, and restrictions on movement, all exacerbated by a draconian citizenship law that leaves the Rohingya stateless. Japan has long been reluctant to exert pressure on Burma's senior leadership on human rights issues. The letter was signed by Amnesty International Japan, Arakan Rohingya Organization-Japan (JARO), the Lawyers' Group for Burmese Refugee Applicants, the Burmese Rohingya Association in Japan, the Christian Coalition for Refugee and Migrant Workers (CCRMW), the People's Forum on Burma, BurmaInfo, and Human Rights Watch. Human Rights Watch also issued the Japanese translation of the 12-page photo essay and report, "Perilous Plight: Burma's Rohingya Take to the Seas," today. The report examines the causes of the exodus of Rohingya from Burma and Bangladesh, and their treatment once in flight to Southeast Asian countries. The report documents the persecution and human rights violations against the Rohingya inside Burma, especially in Arakan state, persisting for over 20 years, with insufficient international attention. The eight organizations will hold a public event today in Tokyo around the report and the treatment of Rohingya asylum seekers in Japan. "The Rohingyas have faced persecution in Burma and mistreatment in the countries where they seek refuge," Doi said. "The Japanese government should ensure their protection in Japan."