BurmaNet News, November 24, 2009

[Editor]

November 24, 2009 Issue #3847


INSIDE BURMA
Mizzima News: Junta’s priority is elections, not easing sanctions: Win Tin
Irrawaddy: Top generals hold final meeting of 2009

ON THE BORDER
SHAN: Wa Army stands defiant against junta pressure
Mizzima News: Thai officials rescue Burmese workers

ASEAN
Straits Times (Singapore): Asean engagement with Myanmar showing results

REGIONAL
Bangkok Post: Abhisit cool to opponents of Salween River dam plan

INTERNATIONAL
DVB: Ethnic conflict in Burma demands ‘renewed focus’

OPINION / OTHER
Independent (UK): The terrifying voyage of Burma's boat people – John Carlin
Al Jazeera: Changing tack on Myanmar – Larry Jagan
Irrawaddy: Selection time precedes election time in Burma – Aung Zaw




____________________________________
INSIDE BURMA

November 24, Mizzima News
Junta’s priority is elections, not easing sanctions: Win Tin – Salai Han
Thar San

New Delhi – The Burmese military junta’s priority is to get on with its
planned 2010 elections rather than looking at easing western sanctions,
leaving little chance of the junta supremo Snr Gen Than Shwe responding to
detained opposition leader’s latest proposal, a senior member of her party
said.

Win Tin, a Central Executive Committee (CEC) member of Aung San Suu Kyi’s
party, the National League for Democracy (NLD), on Tuesday told Mizzima
that the chances of Than Shwe responding to the Nobel Peace Laureate’s
letter, requesting a meeting with him, is slim as the military clique
seems to be far too preoccupied with its planned elections.

On November 11, the detained Burmese democracy icon, through her party
spokesperson Nyan Win, sent her second letter to Than Shwe requesting a
face to face meeting to follow up on the work to help ease western
sanctions.

Nyan Win on Tuesday told Mizzima that Than Shwe has not responded to the
letter, which also requested permission to allow the pro-democracy leader
to pay her respects to aging party leaders and to allow her a meeting at
her home with the party CEC.

The senior opposition leader on Tuesday said, Burma’s military supremo Snr
Gen Than Shwe is unlikely to respond to the detained opposition leader
Aung San Suu Kyi’s proposal sent earlier this month, as the junta’s
priority is its elections rather than easing sanctions.

Win Tin said, the military clique is unlikely to responds to the proposal
as the 2010 elections are on the top of its agenda, compared to looking at
easing western sanctions and engaging with the United States.

“Sanctions do not constitute  real problems for them [junta], as it does
not hurt them much but creates slight difficulties in their relationship
with the international community. But the elections are very important to
them,” Win Tin said.

Aung San Suu Kyi on September 25 sent her first letter to Than Shwe
offering to cooperate in easing sanctions. The junta responded to her
proposal by granting her request to meet diplomats from the United States,
European Union and Australia.

Besides, the junta also allowed the detained Burmese democracy icon to
meet the junta’s Liaison Minister Aung Kyi and also the visiting US
high-level delegation led by Assistant Secretary for Asia Pacific Affairs,
Kurt Campbell.

The letters and the meetings came following the United States’
announcement of a new policy of engaging the generals in Burma while
maintaining existing sanctions.

Nyan Win, while saying  that so far there was no reply, said he is
optimistic that something positive will turn up.

But Win Tin said, “This election will guarantee the rule of the military
because it will be held based on the 2008 constitution. And the new
Parliament and the new government will be controlled by this constitution
that will guarantee the military’s rule for many years to come in Burma.”

____________________________________

November 24, Irrawaddy
Top generals hold final meeting of 2009 – Wai Moe

Commanders of the Burmese armed forces (the Tatmadaw) began their final
meeting of 2009 in Naypyidaw on Tuesday, with the proposed 2010 election
reportedly high on the agenda.

The top junta brass meet every four months. The current meeting was
postponed from October.
High-ranking Burmese army officers watch a parade during Armed Forces Day
in the administrative capital of Naypyidaw on March 27, 2009. (Photo:
Getty Images)

Observers say that, apart from the 2010 election, the meeting is expected
to discuss tension with ethnic cease-fire groups over the proposed border
guard force, US-Burma relations and the status of pro-democracy leader
Aung San Suu Kyi.

The junta leader Snr-Gen Than Shwe and the other top three generals might
nominate potential Tatmadaw election candidates, observers say.  The
military-backed Constitution reserves 25 percent of the future upper and
lower houses of parliament for military officers nominated by the Tatmadaw
commander-in-chief.

“We can expect to hear something at the conclusion of the meeting,”  a
Rangoon-based journalist told The Irrawaddy on Tuesday. “All key military
officials are attending. This is the last meeting of commanders in 2009,
so they have to decide something.”

The meeting takes place as rumors circulate that the junta's No.2,  Vice
Snr-Gen Maung Aye, is likely to retire from the military. Maung Aye has
reportedly told his close friends that he would like to retire after the
election to a house he is building in Naypyidaw.

“I've heard that Vice Snr-Gen Maung Aye may retire from the military and
politics, although Than Shwe is not likely to give up his military role,”
said Chan Tun, a veteran Rangoon politician.

Other observers say Than Shwe has not yet decided whether to step down
after the election and is not yet ready to name a date for the poll.

Under the 2008 constitution, the Tatmadaw and its commander-in-chief will
hold a paramount position in Burma's power structure. The
commander-in-chief will automatically act as a vice president, with
authority to abolish parliament for reasons of security. Since the
military takeover in 1962, whoever was in charge of the Tatmadaw has also
controlled the whole country.

If Than Shwe resigns his Tatmadaw position, his No. 3, Gen Thura Swe Mann,
62, is well placed to succeed him, although the junta's No. 4, Gen Thiha
Thura Tin Aung Myint Oo, who is three years younger, is also being named
as a possible successor. No love is lost between the two generals.

The London-based think tank, The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), in a
Burma report in October, tipped Shwe Mann for the post, but said conflict
within the leadership could threaten the Tatmadaw’s long-term grip on
power.

“A post-election shuffle of positions, with appointments to
newly-established posts of president and vice-president, could prove to be
destabilizing,” said the EIU.

The junta's plan to transform the armed cease-fire groups into a Border
Guard Force poses another threat to stability. The plan, first floated in
April, is opposed by key cease-fire groups, including the biggest, the
United Wa State Army. The junta has extended its deadline for acceptance
of the plan for a further month, until the last week of December.

The possibility of fresh military offensives along the Sino-Burmese border
and the possible Chinese response are also certainly on the Naypyidaw
agenda.

The generals will also undoubtedly consider the initiative taken two weeks
ago by Suu Kyi, who wrote to Than Shwe asking for a meeting and also for
permission to meet leaders of her party, the National League for Democracy
(NLD). In her conciliatory letter, Suu Kyi also thanked the junta for
allowing her to meet a visiting US delegation and western diplomats.

According to sources close to the NLD, the junta is likely to grant Suu
Kyi’s request for a meeting with her party leaders, although it is
uncertain whether the NLD vice-chairman ex-Gen Tin Oo, would be allowed to
attend.

Tin Oo—the only former top general to oppose the junta—has been under
house arrest since 2003 and the regime has consistently prevented him from
meeting Suu Kyi and other NLD leaders. He is regarded by the junta as a
traitor.

____________________________________
ON THE BORDER

November 24, Shan Herald Agency for News
Wa Army stands defiant against junta pressure – Hseng Khio Fah

Panghsang, main base of the United Wa State Army (UWSA), has not change
its 14 November position to accept Naypyitaw’s Border Guard Force (BGF)
demand “only in principle” though the 22 November deadline has gone,
sources from the Sino-Burma border said.

Panghsang was told by Chief of Military Affair Security (MAS) Lt-Gen Ye
Myint at a meeting in Tangyan in northern Shan State to submit a list of
its soldiers and weapons on 22 November prior to their reorganization as
Border Guard Force (BGF) by December.
Up to date, it is reported to have been reinforcing its troops around its
border areas with the Burma Army and has been giving intensive military
trainings to its men, said a source close to the Wa leadership.

“No one is paying attention to the junta’s demand,” he said.

Additionally, its relationship with its southern force, 171st Military
Region led by Wei Xuegang, wanted both in Thailand and the US on drug
charges, along the Thai-Burma border is also reportedly remains strong,
the source said.

Since April, the 171st has been urged by the Burma Army to separate itself
from Panghsang and transform into a junta militia.
But sources both on the Thai-Burma border and the Sino-Burma border said
the separation is unlikely to happen because its commander is still
staying in Panghsang. “All units appear to be following orders from
Panghsang,” said a Thai border watcher.

The 171st Military Region comprises 5 brigades, stretching from Mongton
township to Tachilek township opposite Maehongson, Chiangmai and
Chiangrai.

The UWSA is the second strongest force after the Burmese Army. It has
reportedly over 30,000 fighters. If the group accepts to transform into
BGF, it will be reduced to three battalions with 326 troops, run by
30-Burma Army officers attached to each unit.
____________________________________

November 24, Mizzima News
Thai officials rescue Burmese workers – Usa Pichai

Chiang Mai – Fifty four Burmese workers believed to be victims of human
traffickers were rescued after Thai officials raided a frozen seafood
factory in Trang Province, southern Thailand.

On Monday, Thai officials from Bangkok and Trang province, led by Pol Lt
Col Taweep Changtor, from Thai Immigration Police Office, raided a factory
of the J.D.P Co. Ltd. a big dried fish producer and ice distributer in
Kantang district of Trang Province.

The raid followed information that Burmese workers were detained and face
threats in the factory and were believed to have been trafficked. The
police found 32 Burmese workers in a house in the factory compound.
Another 24 were found in boats anchored near the area. Some of the workers
had work documents while most did not.

“Immigration police were tipped off by Burmese workers who fled from the
factory. They said that there were workers, who were being forced to work
and some are beaten up by the head worker of the factory. The workers are
taken to work by a fishery boat captain who acted as an agent searching
for migrant workers. Some of them want to return to their country but are
forced to work and are detained,” Pol Lt Col Taweep was quoted in a report
in the Thai newspaper Manager.

The police said that the owner of the factory denied the accusation and
claimed that the workers had work documents in keeping with the law. Some
of them who did not have documents are fishermen, who worked for others
boats and had no links with the factory.

The officials found out that the factory applied to the Ministry of Labour
to hire more than 600 migrant workers.

However, the officials are investigating and following leads on agents,
who might be human traffickers.

According to a recent report by The Mirror Foundation, a non-governmental
organization working on the human trafficking issue in Thailand there are
four provinces in southern Thailand which are blacklisted. They are
Songkhla, Chon Buri, Samut Prakarn and Samut Sakorn all located on the
seashore. It was felt that more provinces have the same problem.  There
are several trafficking networks that are active in the area because of
the high demand for workers in the fishery industry.

Earlier, Issara Somchai, Minister of Social Development and Human Security
said that Thailand has the biggest number of fishing boats in the lower
part of Asia and many are using illegal labourers from Burma and Cambodia
to work on the vessels.

____________________________________
ASEAN

November 24, Straits Times (Singapore)
Asean engagement with Myanmar showing results

THE new approach taken by the United States towards Myanmar has made Asean
'feel justified' about its policy of engagement with the isolated country
all these years, said Foreign Minister George Yeo.

Also, there are things happening now between the two countries although
not all of it are in the public domain, he told the House yesterday.

He made these remarks in response to a question from Ms Irene Ng (Tampines
GRC) on the US policy of engagement in this region, particularly Myanmar.

For years, Mr Yeo noted, Asean had advised the US and Europe to continue
engaging Myanmar 'although they may be unhappy about its policies'.

They refused to budge, insisting that Myanmar's military rulers should
first release opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi.

However, following US Senator Jim Webb's visit to Myanmar in August,
'there is now direct contact between the US and Myanmar', Mr Yeo said.

Senator Webb was the first US political leader to meet the ruling junta's
leader, Senior General Than Shwe. His visit also led to the release of
American John Yettaw, who was sentenced to seven years in jail for
sneaking into Ms Suu Kyi's house.

Earlier this month, US Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell went to
Myanmar and had a meeting with Ms Suu Kyi who, in turn, asked to meet the
military rulers.

In the meantime, however, both the US and Europe continue to impose
economic sanctions on Myanmar 'as a way to pressure the government', he
said.

'I think they are prepared to relax sanctions only if Aung San Suu Kyi
were to ask them to. In this way, their strategy is to strengthen, not
weaken, her,' he added.

Myanmar's government, on its own, had undertaken to hold free and fair
elections next year, said Mr Yeo, who added: 'We hope they will be free
and fair and there'll be national reconciliation.'

He also said the Obama administration's change of policy towards Myanmar
'has to be seen against the larger backdrop of US engagement in Asia'.

Key to it is US-Sino relations. President Barack Obama is determined to
maintain it on a stable footing. To do so would involve strengthening his
nation's rapport with other Asian countries as well as Asean, Mr Yeo said.

Indicative of the approach was the summit that the US held with all 10
Asean leaders during this month's Apec forum in Singapore. It was the
first time that it had held such a summit with Asean.

Unlike in the past, the US did not make Myanmar an issue, said Mr Yeo.

____________________________________
REGIONAL

November 24, Bangkok Post
Abhisit cool to opponents of Salween River dam plan

Ethnic villagers and civilian groups yesterday rallied outside Government
House to demand the government abandon a proposed mega-dam construction on
the Salween river.

"We urge you to abandon the Hutgyi dam project to defend human rights,
sustain the environment and protect local livelihoods for generations to
come," the group stated in a petition it had drawn up to present to the
government.

An Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (Egat) development, the
1,360-megawatt hydropower dam is to be built on the Salween river in the
strife-ridden Karen state, 47 kilometres from the Thai-Burma border in Sop
Moei district, Mae Hong Son province.

The project is a joint venture between Egat International, a Chinese
state-owned enterprise Sinohydro Cooperation, and Burma's Hydropower
Department within the country's Ministry of Electric Power.

Around 50 protesters, representing 189 environmental and human rights
organisations, said the dam, if built, would intensify human rights
violation in Burma and destroy the ecological system of the free-flowing
Salween river.

"The Hutgyi dam will change the width of the Salween river, flooding some
areas of Sop Moei village, where an official border demarcation has not
yet been determined.

"Given this situation where the border will be distorted, the project's
implementation must strictly comply with Section 190 of the 2007
Constitution," the petition said.

The colourful protest, with enlarged pictures of the fertile Salween river
and placards condemning Egat for ignoring the plight of villagers, met
with a cool response from the Abhisit government.

The demonstrators demanded Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva meet them and
receive the petition himself. But he reportedly assigned an Egat executive
to accept the letter instead.

"This shows the government's ignorance of our petition and our
information. I think the government wants to build the Hutgyi dam, so they
are turning a blind eye to us," said Karen villager Pairote Panapraisakul,
who travelled from Ban Tha Ta Fang on the bank of Salween river in Mae
Hong Son.

The protesters later handed a protest letter to Asean Human Rights
Committee member Sriprapha Petharamesree.

____________________________________
INTERNATIONAL

November 24, Democratic Voice of Burma
Ethnic conflict in Burma demands ‘renewed focus’ – Francis Wade

International involvement in Burma’s domestic crises has to date had
little effect on resolving ongoing ethnic conflict in the country, an
influential British think tank said yesterday.

Furthermore, pressure from the ruling junta on armed ethnic groups to
transform into border guard forces could “bring renewed instability to
Burma”, according to a report published by Marie Lall, associate fellow at
Chatham House.

While the United States has only recently announced it will begin dialogue
with the junta after years of sanctions and isolation, Burma’s regional
members have long practiced a policy of engagement with the regime.

Yet neither isolation nor engagement has resolved conflict between the
Burmese army and the country’s multiple armed ethnic groups; conflicts
that pre-date Burma’s independence from Britain in 1949, Lall said.

“An understanding of the ethnic conflicts, the political significance of
the ceasefires and the economic and political seesawing between ethnic
minority groups and the army is essential to understand Burma’s political
future,” she says.

The report follows in the wake of a shift in US policy to Burma, with
Washington announcing recently that it would begin dialogue with the
junta.

Yet Burma observers have claimed that the international community,
including the US, is not placing enough emphasis on the plight of the
country’s 135 ethnic groups, many of whom are marginalized by the majority
Burman government.

“I think the international community is not so aware that the conflict is
really the basic problem in Burma; it’s not democracy, or against military
rule,” said Harn Yawnghwe, senior advisor to the Ethnic Nationalities
Council (ENC).

“If the problem of the ethnic nationalities cannot be resolved, then you
are not going to solve Burma’s wider problems.”

He added however that the US was beginning to show signs of an
appreciation of the importance of the role that ethnic conflict plays in
Burma’s instability, “and they seem to be saying that you need to resolve
it, so I think that is the right step”.

The conflict between the Karen National Union (KNU) and the Burmese
government has stretched over six decades, and is thought to be one of the
world’s longest running.

Lall also pointed to an outbreak of fighting between Burmese troops and an
ethnic Kokang group in August this year as an example of the fragility of
ceasefire agreements that 18 of the country’s armed ethnic groups hold
with the government.

____________________________________
OPINION / OTHER

November 24, Independent (UK)
The terrifying voyage of Burma's boat people – John Carlin

Next month thousands of young Burmese Muslims, persecuted in their own
land, will attempt to voyage across the sea to a better life – but a
sinister fate awaits them. John Carlin investigates
Here's a formula for making a killing in times of crisis. Go to the
south-eastern tip of Bangladesh, on the border with Burma, and buy an old
fishing boat. It'll cost 100,000 taka, or about £900.

Then budget 450 pounds, for rice and drinking water, and maybe another
£450 for bribes. Then head off and trawl for clients among the most
destitute communities in Bangladesh – a country so densely populated
country and so poor that for Britain to be on similar economic terms it
would have to have a population of 200 million with an average income
around four per cent of what a Briton's is today,

But the target market we are looking at here is several times more
impoverished than that. We are talking about quite possibly the most
neglected people in Asia, or anywhere else. They call themselves
Rohingyas, a Muslim minority from Burma, 30,000 of whom have been so
cruelly persecuted by their country's military junta, in large measure
because of their religion, that they have chosen to flee over the border
to live in a refugee camp that they themselves built, without the help of
the United Nations or anybody else. It is on a little hillside that is so
hot, cramped, stinking, hungry and disease-ridden that, by contrast, the
neighbouring string of squalid Bangladeshi fishing villages feels like the
Costa del Sol.

Of the 30,000 people living in the Kutupalong refugee camp, a third are
children under 10. They laughed and horsed around when I visited them
accompanied by a photographer and an aid worker. They would not have
laughed had they had any sense of the possible destiny awaiting them, just
around the corner. When the mothers get desperate, when no other
possibility of survival exists, they sell their children off, usually to
become slaves; sex slaves, if they are little girls.

But these are not the clients that the region's investors-in-people most
are interested in. What they look for is young men, typically between 16
and 25 years old, who dare to dream of a future brighter than the best
that Bangladesh has to offer them – which is to pedal day and night as
rickshaw drivers, earning just enough crumbs to allow their bodies to keep
pedalling the day and night after that.

For these young men, the promised land is Malaysia, an Asian Tiger of
shimmering skyscrapers, vast bridges and smooth motorways that is 1,000
miles south of Bangladesh but felt – when I arrived there on a Malaysian
airlines Airbus 330 – like another world, in another century. There is no
Airbus option for the Rohingyas, who do not have passports, not being
considered citizens in their own land.

This is where the fishing boats, the rice, drinking water and the bribes
come in. The canny entrepreneur, who regards himself as a sort of travel
agent, offers these ambitious young men a sea trip to Malaysia for a fee
the equivalent of £180 a head. The boat, about 60ft long, would usually
hold a dozen fishermen. But for this kind of voyage the aim is to carry up
to 100 people.

That means an income of £18,000 on an outlay of £1,800: a profit
approaching 1,000 per cent.
One limitation of the business is that it is only feasible at year's end.
December is the time to set sail, when the storms in south-east Asian
waters abate, and the currents and the winds are favourable for Malaysia.
As I write, boats are being bought and packages sold – as they were a year
ago when more than 1,000 Rohingya refugees set off from the Bangladeshi
coast.
I spoke separately to half a dozen of these sea-faring adventurers; the
stories of three of them are recorded here. Storms, starvation, disease,
thirst, beatings, jail was what befell them. At several steps along the
way they lived with what seemed then the certain knowledge that they were
to die slow and terrible deaths.

Another type of slow death was what they had fled from in Burma. The
travellers' stories of life in their home country matched those I heard
from a group of Rohingya elders at the Kutupalong camp, painting a picture
that suggested images of the slave era in the Americas during the 18th and
19th centuries.

The Rohingyas live in north-west Burma, in a state called Arakan, a name
that sounds like a beautiful fairyland in a C.S. Lewis Narnia story, but
in this case one ruled without respite by a regime almost as darkly
impenetrable as North Korea's. Since its government refused to accept the
results of the last democratic elections in 1990, Burma has been a country
closed to foreign journalists. Talking to the Rohingyas, one can
understand why. They are discriminated against because they are Muslims in
a Buddhist country; because they tend to have darker skin than most
Burmese (a senior Burmese diplomat described them recently as "dark brown"
and "ugly as ogres"), and because of a complex history of resistance to
central control (they sided with the British in the Second World War
instead of the Japanese, whom the majority of Burmese favoured). They find
themselves stateless slaves in the country where they were born. They
cannot move from one village to another without permission from the local
military authorities; they cannot marry or have children without
permission; they are helpless to resist as their land is confiscated bit
by bit and given to Buddhist settlers brought in from the cities; they are
forced to work the land that has been stolen from them, without pay; they
are forced to do all the menial labour that the military might require,
from building roads to cutting grass; and they are not allowed to worship
freely. After nightfall, when their religion demands that they go to the
mosque and pray, they are not allowed to leave their homes. And there is a
policy clearly aimed at the erosion of Islam in Arakan state: anyone who
is caught performing any repairs on a mosque, from fixing a roof to
painting a wall, is punished with jail and a fine.

"They tell us it is their country, not ours," said one of the Rohingya
boat people I spoke to, a gentle, devoutly religious boy of 19 called
Mohammed. The eldest of eight siblings, his father marked him out as the
family's saviour. His his mission was to set off for Malaysia, find a job
and send money back home. "My father was terribly sad but he said I was
the only hope the family had."

For more, visit:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/the-terrifying-voyage-of-burmas-boat-people-1826417.html
____________________________________

November 24, Al Jazeera
Changing tack on Myanmar – Larry Jagan

Barack Obama's recent sortie into Asia has marked a radical change in
Washington's approach to the region, as the US president looks to
re-engage after eight years of diffidence shown by the previous Bush
administration.

Nowhere is the new US approach starker than its shift in policy towards
military-ruled Myanmar, formerly known as Burma.

In recent weeks the US has begun to talk directly with the country's
ruling generals, who have been shunned by previous administrations.

There have been a series of meetings between senior US diplomats and
Myanmar officials – in Naypyidaw the new Burmese capital, New York at the
United Nations, and elsewhere.

It is a significant change of direction and one that is likely to increase
competition for influence in the region between Washington and Beijing.

Critical move

The most critical series of meetings came during an early November visit
to Myanmar by US Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell.

Many expect him to make a follow-up visit before the end of the year.

He told members of the National League for Democracy (NLD) led by the
detained opposition leader, Aung San Suu Kyi that he would back in Myanmar
very soon.

So far there are no real signs that this is going to happen, and western
diplomats in Yangon are sceptical that a return visit is on the cards in
the near future.

The main problem, it seems, is that Myanmar's top military leader appears
to have cooled on the idea of rapprochement with Washington.

"The ball is now very much in the Burmese court," said Sean Turnell a
Myanmar expert at Australia's Macquarie University.

"Obama's hand has been extended - will they respond in kind or with the
clenched fist?" he told Al Jazeera.

Washington, for its part, has made its position clear: previous US policy,
which relied almost exclusively on sanctions and isolating the regime, has
failed miserably.

New approach

And so, earlier this year, secretary of state Hillary Clinton announced it
was time for a new approach - one where sanctions were maintained, but
supplemented by a dialogue with Myanmar's military leaders.

"The US policy shift is part of Obama's overall approach to foreign policy
– he is doing the same with Pyongyang, Damascus, Havana and Tehran," says
Myanmar specialist, Derek Tonkin, a former British ambassador.

In contrast to Bush's "unilateralism", he says, it is a policy likely to
produce better results.

The change in direction also comes amid a growing feeling on Capitol Hill
that China has stolen the march on the US, creating a situation that is
neither in the interests of Washington, or the region.

Democratic Senator Jim Webb, whose personal visit to Myanmar in August
broke the ice with the top generals in Myanmar, is certainly convinced
that this is the most important incentive for the US to re-engage,
especially with Myanmar.

Many analysts in the region also welcome the shift in US policy and
understand that, stated or otherwise, it will lead to a competition for
influence with the Chinese.

"The US realises that if they are to retain American influence in this
region, they must be able to match what China is doing," Kishore
Mahbubani, dean of the National University of Singapore's Lee Kuan Yew
School of Public Policy told Al Jazeera.

"If China is improving its ties by leaps and bounds
 it is not in
America's interest to be left behind."

Chinese presence

Historian Thant Myint-U, author of 'A River of Lost Footsteps', a history
or modern Myanmar, agrees.

"China has had a free run in Burma [Myanmar] for nearly two decades, and
will certainly be uneasy with the prospects of a rapprochement between
Washington and the Burmese," he says.

At the same time there are also signs that the overwhelming presence of
the Chinese has also pushed Myanmar's military to at least become more
receptive to the US overtures.

The generals have become over-reliant on Beijing – especially for arms,
military hardware and economic investment.

According to official figures, more than 90 per cent of direct foreign
investment in Myanmar last year was Chinese, jumping more than a quarter
over the past 12 months to more than $1bn.

The bulk of that investment was in the mining sector, oil industry and
numerous hydro-electric schemes in Myanmar.

"I think China's dominance of Burma, economically and politically, has
reached its high tide," says Sean Turnell of Maquarie university. "I think
they are worried, and are right to be worried."

"I'm really struck by what I can only describe as the seething resentment
in Burma as to China's dominance of the country's economy, especially in
resource extraction, but also in the various infrastructure projects --
the influx of Chinese workers to build them -- and in the massive influx
of Chinese consumer goods."

Myanmar polls

But while the regime may appear to be courting Washington's recent
advances, there is little evidence that the general's plans for next
year's elections are going to be affected.

The US diplomats team that went to Myanmar has made it clear what they are
offering in return for improved bilateral relations.

"The [forthcoming] elections in Burma could be an opportunity for the
country to end its international isolation, but only if these elections
are inclusive, with the full participation of all political parties,"
deputy assistant US secretary of state Scot Marciel told a press
conference in Bangkok, following his visit.

"That includes creating the conditions in the run up to the elections
which make the process credible."

"There cannot be a credible election that has legitimacy without a
thoroughly inclusive political process, and that cannot happen without
dialogue," he stressed.

So far there are few signs that the junta is seriously considering
starting a dialogue with detained opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, let
alone releasing her.

There have been some tentative gestures, including allowing the Nobel
peace laureate to talk directly with a government representative, the
labour and liaison minister Aung Kyi, and meet various diplomats in
Yangon, including Kurt Campbell and Scot Marciel.

Now Aung San Suu Kyi has written again to General Than Shwe asking for a
meeting to discuss ways she could help the government ease its
international isolation – a request which has so far been declined.

"This shows she has changed and is prepared to be flexible and
compromise," says Justin Wintle, the British writer who wrote the recent
biography of Aung San Suu Kyi, 'Perfect Hostage'.

But the problem is that the regime leader, Than Shwe does not appear to be
inclined to accept her offer, or even talk to her.

"Than Shwe may feel there is no need to make any concessions, unless he
wants to please the Americans," says former ambassador Derek Tonkin.

"And it could now be only six months to the elections," he warned.

Time then is running out for the US and the international community to
influence events in Myanmar before next year's vote.

'No Asean leverage'

Both China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) have
also urged the junta to make sure the elections are credible.

But both will likely wait and see rather than increase pressure on the
regime in the lead up to the polls.

China prefers quiet behind-the-scenes diplomacy and is not likely to push
very hard, fearing that they would be ignored if they were to do so,
reducing any influence they do have and endangering their already large
investment in Myanmar.

Asean on the other hand has made some noises in the past 12 months,
especially under Thailand's chairmanship of the regional grouping,
emphasising the need for an inclusive and credible election.

But this also is unlikely to have much impact on the junta.

"There's not much Asean can do," historian Thant Myint-U told Al Jazeera.
"They certainly have no special leverage."

In recent weeks Myanmar government ministers and officials, including the
prime minister Thein Sein, have hinted that Aung San Suu Kyi may be
released before the elections.

But that in itself would not placate the US administration nor satisfy the
international community.

Only her uninhibited participation in the elections would satisfy them and
Senior General Than Shwe, Myanmar's reclusive top leader, is highly
unlikely to allow that.

____________________________________

November 24, Irrawaddy
Selection time precedes election time in Burma – Aung Zaw

Although Burma's military regime has announced no election law nor
declared the date of the poll it plans to hold in 2010, preparations
appear to have begun in Naypyidaw.

Informed sources suggest that potential candidates for president,
vice-president, commander-in-chief of the armed forces and defense
minister have been chosen.

The current list may yet be modified before the election and some
potential candidates in the list could be removed. All depends on   the
regime leader Snr-Gen Than Shwe, who still calls the shots.

Than Shwe, who is in his late 70s, and his number 2, Dep Snr-Gen Maung
Aye, who is only slightly younger, will retire soon after the election.
Informed sources said that they are building lavish new homes in Naypyidaw
for their retirement.

However, before vacating the throne, Than Shwe will make sure he and his
family can live in safely, leaving his trusted officers in  high positions
to ensure security.

Than Shwe has reportedly already endorsed the junta's No 3, Gen Thura Shwe
Mann, joint chief-of-staff in the armed forces, to become president of
post-election Burma.

According to sources close to the military elite, Shwe Mann, 61, will be
nominated by the representatives of the military in the future Senate and
House, to be formed after the planned 2010 election.

The military will receive 25 percent of the seats at the village,
township, state, regional and district levels in the new governing body,
according to the 2008 Constitution.

There will be three nominees for the presidency—one from the military
contingent, one from the Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (Union Assembly or Senate) and
one from the members of the Pyithu Hluttaw (People's Assembly or House).
The Senate and the House will then vote to choose the president.

Shwe Mann, a protégé of Than Shwe, has a reputation of being down to earth
and a good listener, but he has yet to show his teeth on a broad range of
social, economic and political issues. His vision of Burma’s future is
unknown.

However, Shwe Mann increasingly oversees regular meetings on political and
security affairs with high-ranking military officials in Rangoon and
Naypyidaw—perhaps a further sign that Than Shwe will take a back seat
after the election.

Shwe Mann and his wife are close to Than Shwe’s family on a personal
level, undertaking shopping trips together to Singapore.

Recently, Shwe Mann was the subject of extensive news coverage focusing on
his secret mission to North Korea in November.

According to the Constitution, one of the duties of the new president will
be to head the National Defense and Security Council, which has the power
to declare a state of emergency and nullify the Constitution.

Than Shwe's choice for one of the two proposed vice-presidents, according
to  informed sources, is Maj-Gen Htay Oo, the minister of agriculture and
irrigation and a key leader of the Union Solidarity and Development
Association (USDA), the junta-backed mass organization.

Htay Oo recently visited Japan—displaying, according to military sources,
all the qualities of a politician rather than an army officer.

The choice of the second vice-president is likely to fall to an ethnic
leader. It's worth recalling that Burma’s first and second presidents were
Shan and Karen.

Analysts ponder the question of who will become commander-in- chief of the
armed forces.

Than Shwe currently holds Burma’s most powerful position in the armed
forces and analysts say he will hand this position over only to his most
trusted ally.

There appear to be plenty of subordinates who could fill the shoes.
They include Lt-Gen Hla Htay Win, Maj-Gen Ko Ko, Maj-Gen Tin Ngwe and
Maj-Gen Kyaw Swe. All are close to Than Shwe and Dep Snr-Gen Gen Maung
Aye, the current army chief and deputy to Than Shwe.

Maj-Gen Tin Ngwe is said by analysts to be the front runner for the post
of commander-in-chief of the armed forces. He recently accompanied Than
Shwe when he made an official visit to Sri Lanka.

Born in Nyaung-Oo, in the central heartland of Burma, Tin Ngwe attended
the Defense Services Academy Intake 22, together with Kyaw Swe, later
serving as G-1 in the defense ministry. He is known to be loyal to Than
Shwe and Shwe Mann.

According to the new Constitution, the commander-in-chief will control the
ministries of defense, border affairs and home affairs, exercising wide
executive powers.

Analysts also tip Lt-Gen Myint Swe, a Than Shwe protégé, as a  possible
candidate for the post of defense minister. He attended the 15th intake of
the Defense Services Academy in 1971 and is currently commander of the
Bureau of Special Operations 5.

Myint Swe became commanding officer of Light Infantry Division 11,
overseeing security in Rangoon, and later served as commander of Southwest
Military Region in Bassein, Irrawaddy Division, before moving in the late
1990s to the defense ministry, where he worked directly under Than Shwe
and Maung Aye.

This seems to be Than Shwe’s “rest in peace” selection plan for 2010. If
he executes it smoothly, he will avoid the fate of such top men as Gen
Khin Nyunt and the late dictator Gen Ne Win, both of whom ended up under
house arrest.

Analysts say Than Shwe wants to make sure the 2010 election provides him
and his family with a safe exit strategy. That entails leaving his trusted
aides at the helm—and that means the country will continue to be to run by
the military.