BurmaNet News, December 1, 2009

[Editor]

December 1, 2009, Issue #3850


INSIDE BURMA
DPA: HIV patients mark AIDS day at office of Myanmar opposition party
Mizzima News: Court charges four women activist

ON THE BORDER
Irrawaddy: 95 trafficking victims freed

BUSINESS/TRADE
The Hindu Business Line (India): India-Myanmar trade set to touch $1 billion

HEALTH
IMNA: Sweeping shortages of HIV-AIDS medication threaten lives in Mon State
Kachin News Group: Rise in HIV infection in northern Burma
DVB: AIDS stems from ‘socially unacceptable behaviour’

OPINION / OTHER
Wall Street Journal: A Burma policy for India – Benedict Rogers
Asia Times: US's Myanmar initiative falters – Larry Jagan

ANNOUNCEMENT
Intelligence Squared: The Burma debate



____________________________________
INSIDE BURMA

December 1, Deutsche Presse Agentur
HIV patients mark AIDS day at office of Myanmar opposition party

Yangon – The headquarters of Myanmar's opposition National League for
Democracy was crowded Tuesday with 150 HIV-positive visitors to mark World
Aids Day. The group was led by AIDS activist Phyu Phyu Thin, 38, who runs
a treatment, medicine and counselling service for anyone infected with the
HIV virus or with AIDS in Yangon.

The political situation in the country may remain unresolved, with the
National League for Democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi imprisoned in her
own home elsewhere in the city, but Phyu Phyu said HIV did not distinguish
between political tendencies.

The 3,000 patients who go to her clinic include members of the police
special branch, the army and police and the regime's own political party,
she noted.
One visitor, Ma Aye Aye Khing, 39, said she was shocked to find she was
HIV positive, along with her 11-year-old daughter. Her husband is a
political prisoner jailed after the 2007 monk protests.

"I have read many books about HIV. If I have medicine, I know I cannot die
in a short time," she said.

Phyu Phyu said she faced many difficulties in trying to help ordinary
people infected by the virus, including finding enough medicine to meet
the demand.

She was arrested by police in Yangon for organizing a prayer rally in 2007
to call for the release of Suu Kyi and held for a month in prison. She was
also detained in 2000 at a rally in support of the opposition leader.

The government spent 191.4 million kyat (29 million dollars) in 2007 in
fighting the disease. The United Nations agency UNAIDS has said AIDS cases
in Myanmar dropped from 0.94 per cent of the population in 2000 to 0.67
per cent in 2007, the official New Light of Myanmar newspaper said
Tuesday.
____________________________________

December 1, Mizzima News
Court charges four women activist – Myint Maung

New Delhi – Four women activists, who were arrested on October 3 for
offering alms to Buddhist monks, had been charged by a district court on
Monday under section 505(b) of the Penal Code (disturbing public
tranquillity).

The activists including popular woman activist Naw Ohn Hla were arrested
on October 3, for offering alms to monks at the Magwe monastery in Dagon
satellite township of Rangoon, on the eve of Thadingyut festival.

The four are being tried at a special tribunal held inside Rangoon’s
notorious Insein prison presided by the judge of the Rangoon east district
court.

“the court framed charges against Naw Ohn Hla for offering 42 leaves of
Buddhist scriptures (Kammawa) to the abbot of Magwe monastery with the
intention of inciting public unrest,” Kyaw Hoe, the defence lawyer of the
activists told Mizzima.

Kyaw Hoe said, the other three were charged under section 505(b) of the
Penal Code as these Buddhist scriptures were not found in their
possession.

Disagreeing with the court’s charges Kyaw Hoe said, “There is no
sufficient ground to presume that the accused had committed the said
offence because the abbot U Permaukha did not appear before the court as a
prosecution witness.”

He added that this ‘Kammawa’ is a Buddhist scripture preached by Lord
Buddha and offering this Buddhist scripture does not tantamount to
violation of law.

“I don’t think we can presume that the accused had committed the crime,”
he added.

The four activists - Naw Ohn Hla of Hmawbi Township, Myint Myint San of
Dallha Township, Cho Cho Lwin of Thingangyun Township and Ma Cho of South
Dagon Township – had regularly prayed every Tuesday at the popular shrine
Shwedagon Pagoda for the release of pro-democracy leader Daw Aung San Suu
Kyi.

The four, following their arrest, were reportedly taken to interrogation
centre and later transferred to Insein prison.

The judge Aung Thein fixed the next hearing of the case for December 7.

On October 3, when the Buddhist celebrated Thadingyut full moon festival,
clandestine monk organizations in Burma, called on all monks to boycott
and ex-communicate the junta and its military officials, which is the
highest means of protests by Buddhist monks against the government or
rulers.

The monks group, in a statement, called all fellow monks in Burma to
boycott the junta and ex-communicate them, unless they release all
detained monks.

Buddhist Monks in Burma in September 2007 took a proactive role in calling
on the military regime to implement changes by marching the streets and
chanting ‘Metta-Sutta’, the Buddhist words on ‘Loving Kindness’. But the
junta responded with a brutal crackdown, arresting and detaining hundreds
of monks.

____________________________________
ON THE BORDER

December 1, Irrawaddy
95 trafficking victims freed – Lawi Weng

Ninety-five Burmese migrants, who were trafficked into Thailand from Burma
by gangs, were freed from captivity this week when police and human rights
activists raided houses in southern Thailand. The migrants are currently
being held at a military base while Thai authorities try to round up
members of the trafficking gang.

Fifty-one men who had been forced to work on fishing boats were rescued
from Trang Province in southern Thailand on Nov. 23, while 44 women who
had been trafficked into Ranong Province to work in brothels were freed
after a raid on Nov. 27.

Nai Harry, a social worker who is involved with an anti-human trafficking
group based in Mahachai, near Bangkok, told The Irrawaddy on Monday that
after following a tip-off from one of the trafficked fishermen in Trang,
his group rescued the 51 men.

“We went early in the morning after we got a phone call from someone. We
thought there would only be a few people, but when we got there we found
there were many men on the boat who had been locked in their cabins,” he
said.

Nai Harry, who declined to name his organization because of security
fears, said the 51 victims were from the Irrawaddy delta, Pegu, Mon State
and Tenasserim Division. They were forced to work on Thai fishing boats,
some working for 18 months without pay, others working for three years
without pay. He said that the trafficked Burmese men were forbidden from
going ashore and were locked in their cabins when they were not working.

In Ranong, 44 women were rescued by the anti-human trafficking group after
the organization fixed a price to buy the women's freedom, a group member
said on Monday. Many of the women are ethnic Mon from eastern Burma.

A member of the anti-human trafficking group in Ranong said that they
first rescued 12 women who were severely ill with AIDS and who had been
dumped in a local house and left to die. The other 32 women were allowed
to leave after the group agreed a price with the traffickers.

The NGO member said 28 women were trafficked to work at the brothel last
year while the other four just arrived two weeks ago.

Naing Naing, one of the trafficking victims in Trang, told Nai Harry that
he is from Tavoy Township in Tenasserim Division. He said he was forced to
work for seven months on the boat, during which time his salary was used
to pay back his trafficking fees––some 25,000 baht (US $750).

Naing Naing said that he had requested to be set free after seven months
working on the boat, but the boat owner refused. However, he managed to
sneak ashore and telephone the anti-trafficking group in Mahachai.

According to Naing Naing, if trafficked migrants on the boat argued with
the owner they were routinely killed and thrown overboard, and some were
sold on to another fishing boat owner in Indonesia.

According to Nai Harry, the 51 fishermen were paid nothing for their
labor. The 300 baht ($9) monthly salary the boat owner paid went directly
to the trafficking broker.

Although several members of the trafficking gang have reportedly been
arrested, others escaped. Two of the brokers are said to be ethnic Mon men
from Burma. The Thai authorities are reportedly investigating the case.

Most victims said that they were trafficked by road to Myawaddy Township
on the Thai-Burmese border. They were reportedly told they would get work
on a construction site and receive good salaries.

In October, Thai police and human right activists in Mahachai raided two
brokers' houses and rescued 18 people who had been detained on a fishing
boat.

The human trafficking problem has led to an estimated 1,000 fishermen
jumping ship and living on islands in Indonesia to escape the
ill-treatment of boat captains, according to human rights activists in
Mahachai.

____________________________________
BUSINESS/TRADE

December 1, The Hindu Business Line (India)
India-Myanmar trade set to touch $1 billion

Kolkata – The bilateral trade between India and Myanmar is likely to grow
to $1 billion in 2009-10, up from $951 million in 2008-09, according to Mr
U Kyi Thein, Myanmar Ambassador to India.

While teak, timber, maize and pulses formed the major items of export from
Myanmar into India, steel, cement, fertiliser and pharmaceuticals were the
major items of import into Myanmar, Mr Thein said while speaking at an
interactive session on border trade organised by the Indian Chamber of
Commerce here on Tuesday.

There was a need to organise a series of meetings and discussions between
the two countries in order to give further boost to the trade relations,
“We want to enhance the trade relations between India and Myanmar and are
also looking at ways and means to increase the volume of trade between the
two countries. There is also a need to increase the amount of
investments,” he said.

The bilateral trade relations between Myanmar and India and that with
China were regardless of the political situation in the country, he
observed.

____________________________________
HEALTH
December 1, Independent Mon News Agency
Sweeping shortages of HIV-AIDS medication threaten lives in Mon State –
Rai Maraoh

Hundreds of people in Mon state continue to suffer from HIV-AIDS in Mon
State, but go untreated.

According to organizations that have worked to help treat and prevent
HIV-AIDS in Mon state, many victims continue to go untreated or cannot
access the limited supply of antiretroviral (ARV) drugs normally used to
treat HIV-AIDS.

In July when IMNA initially reported on the subject, the International
Organization for Migration (IOM) had doubled the number of people it was
able to treat with ARV’s. However, the supply available to IOM has
dwindled. One member of the IOM explained to IMNA, “Many people needed ARV
[medicine] but we don’t have any more – we can only give [them] to
patients who are in extreme emergency situations.”

According to IOM staff, many people who suffered HIV-AIDS in Mon state
often remain unaware until their conditions dramatically worsen.

Many people are reported to have the opportunity and means to get
themselves tested, but many do no want to check. Victims often find out
only when an emergency situation arises, though injury or when HIV-AIDS
begin to significantly manifest themselves, such as Kaposi's sarcoma (a
skin tumor often associated with AIDS victims).

“Many patients they come to our group [only] when they begin to suffer
more. We didn’t have enough medicine and some [patients] are nearly dead
[when they arrive],” explained a staff member of IOM. “The patients like
that we need to check [for] carefully and if they really need the medicine
we decide to give it to them.”

In 2006 IOM began working in Mon State to help HIV-AIDS patients. At the
time they were only able to supply vitamins and extra food. It wasn’t
until 2008 that they were able to begin distributing ARV medication. Yet
despite success, many who suffer will not receive medication, as the
program cannot widely distribute its small supply.

The IOM operates in 6 townships of Moulmein, Thanbyuzayat, Mudon,
Kyaik-ma-yaw, Bee-lin, and Ye, in Mon State. IOM believes that there are
close to 500 people diagnosed with HIV-AIDS in Mon State.

Many of the victims of HIV-AIDS have contracted the illness through the
increasing volumes of unprotected sex, dug using or tainted hypodermic
needles.

To address the epidemic before people contract it, IOM and Burma based NGO
health organizations, like Zay Thana Foundation, are attempting to educate
at risk persons and young people. The free workshops explain about
HIV-AIDS, how people can be protected against becoming exposed, and how a
person can live with the condition if they already have it.

A 2008 report form the UNAIDS/World Health Organization estimated that
Burma had 240,000 people living with AIDS in 2007, but speculated the
number could be as high as 370,000.

The 3 Diseases Fund (3DF) estimates that in 2008 approximately 75,000 of
those who suffer with the disease need ARV medication, however just about
11,000 patients actually receive ARV treatment.

With the assistance of partner organizations, 3DF was able to treat
approximately 6,800 people living with HIV with ARV drugs in 2008. 3DF is
a Rangoon based international health organization that treats HIV,
Miliaria and Teberculosis.

According to the international health organization Doctors Without
Borders, this lack of available treatment leads to the deaths of nearly
25,000 HIV-AIDS patients a year in Burma.
____________________________________

December 1, Kachin News Group
Rise in HIV infection in northern Burma

HIV infection is on the rise among people in the country's northern border
with China's Yunnan province because of sexual promiscuity and drugs,
according to figures released by the border-based ethnic Kachin rebel
group today on World Aids Day.

The Laiza-based Kachin Independence Organization (KIO)'s Health Department
have found people in its territory and along the China border are being
infected by HIV because of unprotected sex and intravenous drug use, said
KIO's health officials.

KIO's Heath Department statistics reveal that 1,427 people have been
detected with HIV this year which is marginally less than last year’s
figure of 1,467.

Among them, 271 HIV positive cases were Kachins in 2008. This year 437
Kachin nationals were found to be HIV positive, added KIO's health
officials.

These figures were obtained following blood examination of patients, who
came to hospitals and clinics in the KIO controlled areas of Laiza, Mai Ja
Yang and other areas along the China border, said N'Hpang Naw Bu, deputy
in-charge of the KIO's Health Department today.

Naw Bu said, there is an appalling rise in promiscuity and drug addiction
such as opium, heroin and amphetamine, locally called Yama among young
people in the Kachin community. These are the main causes of HIV infection
among Kachin people, he added.

Currently, the KIO jointly operates special health clinics in Laiza and
Mai Ja Yang with London-based Health Unlimited (HU) opening an office in
Kunming in China's Yunnan province. HIV positive cases and AIDS patients
are especially taken care of in the clinics, said KIO officers.

Special prevention and education functions on World Aids Day were observed
in the main cities of KIO--- Laiza and Mai Ja Yang, with early morning
march past by people creating awareness against HIV/AIDS, through sports
events and posters in the controlled areas, said KIO sources.

Hundreds of civilians and hundreds of men and women of the KIO and its
armed-wing the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) joined the functions in the
two places, local participants said.

KIO officers in Laiza said all international, national and local NGOs
based in Burma are banned from working in KIO's territory.

Other international NGOs based in Kachin State's Myitkyina like Holland
NGO Artsen Zonder Grenzen (AZG or MSF) and French NGO Medicine du Monde
(MDM) are also into HIV/AIDS education and prevention activities in the
cities authorized by the ruling junta such as Myitkyina, Bhamo, Waingmaw
and Mogaung, said sources.

Under monitoring of security agents, the two NGOs are freely distributing
regular rations and Anti-retroviral Therapy (ART) tablets to AIDS
patients, condoms to commercial sex workers and disposable-syringes to
intravenous drug users.

World Aids Day was marked with myriad activities in Myitkyina, which were
conducted by NGOs and Kachin youth leaders under the Kachin Baptist
Convention (KBC).

____________________________________

December 1, Democratic Voice of Burma
AIDS stems from ‘socially unacceptable behaviour’

The Burmese government marked World AIDS Day today with an article in
state-run media linking the disease to “socially unacceptable behavior”,
despite warning against stigmatizing AIDS sufferers.

“AIDS poses a grave threat to the whole mankind and, to stop the spread of
the disease, there is no other way but prevention,” said the
government-mouthpiece New Light of Myanmar newspaper. “Transmission of the
disease is directly or indirectly related to socially unacceptable
behaviour.”

In the same breath, however, it reiterated the motto of the day: “Avoid
Stigma & Discrimination: Access to Services for Everyone”.

Experts have warned that the subject of HIV/AIDS remains taboo in a
country in which one in three gay men and 18 percent of female sex workers
are HIV positive, according to the United Nations.

Public discussion of the disease is scarce, and discrimination against
homosexuality remains common. Although rarely enacted, homosexual activity
is still technically punishable under laws introduced during British
colonial rule in Burma.

“There is a lot of misinformation about HIV/AIDS in Burma,” said Aung Myo
Min, from the Thailand-based Human Rights Education Institute of Burma
(HREIB).

“The government claims that it is a kind of social disease; that you are
not faithful to your partner and you have many sexual partners. They think
it’s a social sin.”
As a result of the stigmatisation, he said, there is little
awareness-raising about the true causes of the disease, which likely
contributes to its prevalence in the country.

“That’s why they need to have a freer education, not only to understand
the disease better, but to tackle these sorts of social stigmas,” he said.

Despite worrying statistics for marginalized populations in Burma, such as
homosexual men and injecting drug users, the recent UN report found that
overall the disease had leveled off in the country.

Current rates of infection stand at around 0.7 percent of the population,
nearly 240,000 people, a drop from one percent in 2000.

The article went on to claim that “the government is fighting AIDS with
the use of manpower and financial power”, despite the World Health
Organisation estimating that the ruling State Peace and Development
Council (SPDC) spends only 0.3 percent of its annual budget, or $US43 per
person per year, on healthcare.

The Global Fund, an international umbrella organization that provides
funding to fight malaria, tuberculosis and HIV/AIDS, announced last month
that it would resume funding to Burma after a four-year hiatus.

The organization had withdrawn in 2005 after the Burmese government placed
tight restrictions on the movement of its staff inside the country,
contrary to written agreements.

Around $US15 million will be provided by the group over the next two years
to NGOs inside Burma.

Reporting by Francis Wade

____________________________________
OPINION / OTHER

December 1, Wall Street Journal
A Burma policy for India – Benedict Rogers

Indian prime minister Manmohan Singh had a largely successful summit with
President Barack Obama last week. There is, however, one issue which
remains cause for concern: India's Burma policy.

India has a particular historical responsibility for Burma, in part
because in colonial times the two countries were ruled by the British as
one. Aung San Suu Kyi, the detained leader of Burma's opposition party,
went to school in New Delhi, for instance, where she became childhood
friends with Jawaharlal Nehru's grandchildren. Past Indian governments
have honored this link: During the 1998 prodemocracy protests, Rajiv
Gandhi's government expressed support for Ms. Suu Kyi.

India's policy has shifted in recent years, thanks to concerns about the
need to counterbalance China's influence and a wish to increase trade. In
2004, Burma agreed to sell India some 80% of the power generated from a
dam in Sagaing Division in return for Indian construction assistance.
India also sought a military alliance with the regime, including an
agreement to provide arms and military training to the Burmese army, in
the hopes of getting help in crushing insurgents in northeastern India.

On balance the expected benefits have not materialized. In 2006, the
Burmese regime awarded China a huge natural gas contract, even though
India had offered a higher bid and Burma's generals had earlier promised
the deal to India. Meanwhile, Burma's assistance in fighting Indian
insurgents has been minimal, and the arms India sold have instead been
used to suppress Burma's own people. The energy projects resulted in land
confiscation, the displacement of thousands of people, and accompanying
human-rights violations including rape, torture and forced labor.

India is mistaken if it believes it can really compete with China's
influence in Burma. China's annual bilateral trade with Burma is already
one-and-a-half times India's, and Beijing has become one of the regime's
closest friends. It is very likely that as Burma's regime starts to engage
with the U.S. and continues to depend on China for protection, India will
find itself squeezed out.

India has also remained silent on Burma's human-rights violations in a bid
to curry favor with the regime. India joined Belarus, China, Iran, Libya,
North Korea, Sudan and Zimbabwe last month in voting against a resolution
on Burma's human-rights abuses at the United Nations General Assembly.

It is not too late for India to revise its position and develop its own
distinctive Burma policy supportive of democracy. Mr. Singh and his
government could raise concerns more robustly with the regime; support
Burma resolutions at the U.N.; seek regular meetings with Ms. Suu Kyi; and
press the regime to review the new constitution and engage in meaningful
dialogue with all political parties ahead of next year's elections. On the
military front, an immediate and complete end to the provision of arms and
military training to Burma's regime would be welcome. India might also be
consider permitting international humanitarian aid cross-border to victims
of famine and severe poverty in western Burma, and funding Burma's
civil-society groups.

A senior official in India's Ministry of External Affairs told me recently
that "our hearts are still with the democracy movement in Burma, but our
heads are with the generals." India needs to combine head and heart and
realize that in the long-run it is in its own national interest to promote
democracy in Burma.

Mr. Rogers, East Asia team leader at Christian Solidarity Worldwide in
London, is author of "Than Shwe: Unmasking Burma's Tyrant," forthcoming
from Silkworm Books.
____________________________________

December 1, Asia Times
US's Myanmar initiative falters – Larry Jagan

Bangkok - Recent attempts by the United States to coax Myanmar's reclusive
ruling generals to open talks with detained opposition leader Aung San Suu
Kyi have so far failed to gain traction and could indicate that Senior
General Than Shwe has gone cold towards the prospect of a rapprochement
with Washington.

In recent months, US President Barack Obama's administration has opened
talks with Myanmar's top generals, representing a shift from previous US
administrations that relied singularly on punitive economic and financial
sanctions to push for democratic change in the military-run and
impoverished country.

Senior US diplomats have held a series of high-level meetings with Myanmar
government ministers, including with Prime Minister General Thein Sein, in
both Myanmar and the US. The meetings include the highest level contact
between the two countries since relations were downgraded in 1988 when
Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell and his deputy Scot Marciel
visited the country in early November.

Campbell and Marciel were allowed to meet Suu Kyi, who is under house
arrest, but security forces also symbolically detained at least two
journalists and several others believed to be involved with an
unsanctioned relief organization just days before their arrival. While
hopes are still rising that Suu Kyi may be released in the run-up to next
year's elections, there is no indication yet that the junta plans to
release the more than 2,100 political prisoners being held across the
country.

Obama's administration has been careful to portray its new position as a
policy realignment rather than a shift, one where sanctions will be
maintained but supplemented with dialogue that offers the junta a chance
to improve relations in return for concessions.

Obama called for Suu Kyi's immediate release at the Asia-Pacific Economic
Cooperation (APEC) meeting held last month in Singapore. He and Thein Sein
sat at the same table during events, though they did not talk. Obama's
envoys meanwhile have called on the junta for assurances that next May's
elections are free, fair and inclusive of the political opposition,
including Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD).

"The [forthcoming] elections in [Myanmar] could be an opportunity for the
country to end its international isolation, but only if these elections
are inclusive, with the full participation of all political parties," Scot
Marciel, who also serves as the US ambassador to the Association of
Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), told a press conference in Bangkok the
day after leaving Yangon last month. "That includes creating the
conditions in the run-up to the elections which make the process
credible."

"We feel that there are more than 50 million people in the country who
deserve the efforts of the international community to try to help bring
about progress and we're very committed to that," he added. "Dialogue is
not an end in itself. There has to be concrete results."

There are still few signs that the junta would consider opening a genuine
dialogue with Suu Kyi, though some Myanmar watchers believe they may
release her just before next year's elections. Others acknowledge some
tentative gestures, including the junta allowing her to talk directly with
Labor and Liaison Minister Aung Kyi and to meet various diplomats in
Yangon.

"The ball is now very much in [Myanmar's] court," said Sean Turnell, a
Myanmar expert at Macquarie University in Australia after the US-ASEAN
summit in Singapore two weeks ago. "Obama's hand has been extended. Will
they respond in kind or with the clenched fist?"

Past failures
This is where previous efforts to engage the regime, including those led
by the United Nations, have come undone. Far too often, the key aim of
those efforts was to free Suu Kyi from detention, with lip service given
to the release of all political prisoners. UN envoy to Myanmar Razali
Ismail saw Suu Kyi's short-lived release in May 2002, in which he played
an instrumental role behind the scenes, as the main point of his mission.

If the US follows the same strategy, their efforts to start a dialogue
between Suu Kyi and the generals are unlikely to fare any better than the
numerous attempts largely led by the UN over the past two decades. "The US
must decide whether their intervention is to free Aung San Suu Kyi, or
help make the situation for the vast majority better than it was," a
senior editor at a news journal in Yangon said on condition of anonymity.

"The two sides are on entirely different wavelengths and there is a huge
amount of mutual distrust," said Thant Myint U, a former UN official and
author of the award-winning book on Myanmar, A River of Lost Footsteps.
"At best we're at a confidence-building stage. If we aim for a
breakthrough on the most difficult issues - such as relations between the
junta and Daw Aung San Suu Kyi - I'm afraid we're bound for a big
disappointment."

Time for a breakthrough is running short, with elections to be held next
year, and changes to the constitution approved in last year's sham
referendum are apparently out of the question. Unless there are
significant incentives for the junta leaders to appease the Americans,
analysts say, it may be too late to influence what happens in the months
ahead.

"Than Shwe may feel there is no need to make any concessions, unless he
wants to please the Americans," according to former British ambassador to
Thailand and Vietnam and now Myanmar watcher, Derek Tonkin.

For her part, Suu Kyi continues to try to entice the reclusive generals
into direct talks. In her latest letter to Than Shwe, she requested a
meeting with him to explore ways that she may be able help the national
conciliation process.

"It shows she has changed and is prepared to be flexible and compromise,"
said Justin Wintle, the British writer and biographer of Aung San Suu Kyi.
"This process, encouraged by the US's change of policy, is the most
exciting thing to happen in [Myanmar] for years. There is now a real
possibility of dialogue," he added.

Others are less sanguine. "[Suu Kyi's] latest letter is unlikely to
mollify Than Shwe all that much," said Tonkin. "It is set at the 'we are
equals' level where Than Shwe unfortunately has all the power and is
operating from a position of strength not weakness." So far Than Shwe has
not responded to the letter, according to Nyan Win, a spokesman for the
NLD.

Election maneuvers
International attention is expected to refocus on the forthcoming
elections and Than Shwe's promised transition towards a "discipline
flourishing" democracy. There is an emerging measure of unanimity in the
international community, one where the West, which has previously been
preoccupied with Suu Kyi's release, and Asia, which has opted for more
engagement, has found common ground.

"Sanctions do not constitute real problems for them [junta], as it does
not hurt them much but creates slight difficulties in their relationship
with the international community. But the elections are very important to
them," said Win Tin, a senior member of the NLD central executive who was
recently released after 19 years in prison.

The joint statement after the US-ASEAN summit, in which neither Suu Kyi
nor political prisoners were expressly mentioned but instead mentioned the
need for free and fair elections, indicated a new emerging international
consensus, prompted largely by the US's change in policy tact.

ASEAN leaders, led by Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva as the current
chairman of the regional grouping, have led overtures to convince the
junta that the elections must be credible. "The elections must be an
inclusive and transparent process if they are to be credible," ASEAN
secretary general Surin Pitsuwan told Asia Times Online. ASEAN stands
ready to help the regime in anyway they want, including by providing
election monitors, he added.

China, too, is seemingly on board with this approach. "China adheres to
the principle of national reconciliation and unity, by promoting political
dialogue and consultation between the Government and the opposition," said
Chinese academic and Myanmar watcher, Li Xuecheng, at the Chinese
Institute of Strategic Studies. "China is willing to work together with
all the relevant parties, including opposition political parties, to make
the 2010 elections a success."

While there is a general agreement that an inclusive election is essential
for Myanmar to ease from international isolation, there is no consensus as
to what would constitute a credible result. Even Washington has not given
details of what they expect from the polls.

"The Obama administration has yet to spell out what they mean by free and
fair elections," said David Steinberg, a professor of Asian Studies at
Georgetown University in Washington and author of numerous books and
academic articles on Myanmar told Asia Times Online.

"Does that mean Aung San Suu Kyi being allowed to run or campaign? The NLD
being able to contest the elections? Fair campaigning and the open
printing and distributing of campaign literature?" asked Steinberg.
"Unfortunately everything still remains open to interpretation."

For years, Suu Kyi has said her freedom was far less important than
establishing a genuine dialogue between the pro-democracy movement and the
junta. The US may now have also signed up to this approach.

But some analysts inside Myanmar believe that the process will be
fruitless unless Suu Kyi is able to offer Than Shwe something tangible
which would allay his fears that she was not intent on running in the
forthcoming elections. Some suggest that she should resign from the NLD as
a gesture of goodwill and follow in the footsteps of South Africa's Nelson
Mandela and Timor Leste's Xanna Gusmao by assisting reconciliation and the
transition to a civilian administration as a national figure.

Others point towards India's Sonia Gandhi, the Italian-born wife of the
assassinated Indian prime minister Rajiv Gandhi who succeeded him as the
Congress party's leader. She later declined to take the premiership or any
ministerial post after her party won national elections to avoid a
constitutional wrangle with the Hindu nationalist opposition. However, she
remained the party's leader and a powerful influence behind the scenes.

Meanwhile, a major shake-up is expected inside the army, with hundreds of
officers set to retire to make way for a new generation of military
leaders. The ruling State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) held its
quarterly meeting in the capital, Naypyidaw, last week, and the aligned
United Solidarity and Development Association (USDA) just held its annual
congress.

The USDA is expected to announce the formation of its political party
shortly and will provide a transitional vehicle for soldiers to become
civilian politicians.

An electoral law that will set the rules for campaigning and party
registration is expected to be rolled out in the coming weeks. An interim
cabinet is also to be announced before the end of the year, according to
Myanmar government sources.

Some observers believe that Suu Kyi may be released coinciding with, or
soon after, the announcement, if Than Shwe feels she is no longer a potent
threat to the elections. It's a move that would push forward Myanmar's new
engagement with the US, and depending on the terms of her release would be
seen by many as a positive step towards reconciliation.

"Whatever happens will be down to Than Shwe," said Turnell. "He wants to
have nothing to do with [Suu Kyi], but may be prepared to go through the
motions if it buys him time."

Larry Jagan previously covered Myanmar politics for the British
Broadcasting Corp. He is currently a freelance journalist based in
Bangkok.

____________________________________
ANNOUNCEMENT

December 1, Intelligence Squared
The Burma debate

Our first live-streaming debate on the weekend was such a success – 
Intelligence Squared became the seventh most discussed topic on Twitter,
with over 10,000 online viewers – that we are delighted to announce our
next two debates will also be available to watch live on the internet.

Intelligence Squared is excited to announce that the debate “It is time to
lift sanctions against Burma”, will be live-streamed to the world for free
at 6:45PM GMT on December 2, 2009 at www.intelligencesquared.com/live.

The panelists will be debating the success of economic sanctions against
the Burmese military junta. The detained pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu
Kyi and the NLD (National League for Democracy) are said to be in favour
of maintaining international sanctions, although many argue the existing
ones have had no effect on the government’s anti-democratic stance, and
have merely inflicted more unnecessary suffering on the Burmese people.

The highly distinguished panel includes Thant Myint-U (Former head of
policy planning in the UN's Department of Political Affairs), Mark
Farmaner (Director of Burma Campaign), Derek Tonkin (Former British
ambassador to both Vietnam and Thailand, and current chairman of Network
Myanmar) and Brad Adams (Executive Director of Human Rights Watch's Asia
Division).