From editor at burmanet.org Tue Feb 2 13:42:52 2010 From: editor at burmanet.org (Editor) Date: Tue, 2 Feb 2010 13:42:52 -0500 (EST) Subject: BurmaNet News, February 2, 2010 Message-ID: <56201.63.173.78.131.1265136172.squirrel@webmail2.pair.com> February 2, 2010, Issue #3888 QUOTE OF THE DAY ?A documentary film capturing clashes between antigovernment demonstrators and the junta in Myanmar in 2007 was nominated Tuesday as a contender for the 82nd Annual Academy Award for documentary feature, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Science said.? - AP/Kyodo News INSIDE BURMA AFP: Burma may free Suu Kyi during polls Irrawaddy: Election announcement in February? Mizzima News: Four women activists awaits court verdict ON THE BORDER Kachin News Group: Burma junta deploys more troops to Kokang territory BUSINESS / TRADE Mizzima News: ADB has no new lending plan for Burma ASEAN Irrawaddy: What's behind ASEAN's arms race? REGIONAL Yonhap (South Korea): US official to press South Korea to address Burma human rights INTERNATIONAL AP via Kyodo News: Documentary film on Myanmar clashes nominated as Oscar contender Irrawaddy: Obama proposes $36.5 million to support democracy in Burma OPINION / OTHER Irrawaddy: How long will Burma?s new constitution last? ? Arnold Corso Bangkok Post: Junta thumbs nose at world ? Editorial New Light of Myanmar: Work hard together for improvement of Myanmar film industry PRESS RELEASE KWO: Emergency appeal to the Royal Thai Government not to forcibly repatriate Karen refugees back to heavily land-mined zone ____________________________________ INSIDE BURMA February 2, Agence France Presse Burma may free Suu Kyi during polls Aung San Suu Kyi may be freed during the national elections in Burma, Thai Foreign Minister Kasit Piromya said Tuesday, predicting the polls could be held during the second half of 2010. "What is the gut feeling? Maybe at the time of the declaration or the holding of the elections," he said, responding to a question on when the opposition leader, whose house arrest sentence had recently been extended until November 2010, could be freed. "Around that time... maybe a day after or a day before," added Kasit. A date has still not been announced for the elections, which will be the first since 1990 when the junta refused to recognise the landslide win of the National League for Democracy (NLD), led by Suu Kyi. Kasit believes that "the elections most probably will be in the second half of the year." He noted that during meetings of a regional bloc known as Asean, Burma's prime minister had been "giving us the assurance ... that elections will be held this year" and that there will definitely be a "new government." "He (the prime minister) mentioned about 70 to 80 percent completion of election law and political party law and the completion of the parliamentary site in the new capital and so on, so I predict it will take place in the second half of this year," added Kasit. The foreign minister also cautioned against sanctions as a way to put pressure on the junta, saying the tactic has "proven to be a failure." "Why hurt the Burma people?" he told journalists in Geneva. Isolating Burma also risks cornering it "into the arms of certain countries," he warned. "The Indians and the Chinese don't want to have any sanctions vis-a-vis Burma. So in that sense you allow a special relationship to happen. Would that be detrimental or not to the whole cooperative effort?" he said. Rather, Kasit referred to the recent US move to engage in dialogue with the junta, saying that put the ball now in the junta's court. "The world is waiting for Burma at the border, so it's up to Burma to respond in a positive manner," he added. Home Affairs Minister Maung Oo reportedly told a meeting of local officials in central Burma last month that the release of 64-year-old Suu Kyi, who has been in detention for 14 of the past 20 years, would come in November. A decision is expected from Burma's top court within few weeks on an appeal against her conviction last August. The conviction related to an incident in which a US man swam to her house and she was sentenced to another 18 months under house arrest. ____________________________________ February 2, Irrawaddy Election announcement in February? ? Simon Roughneen Bangkok ? According to sources in the Burmese military, junta leader Snr-Gen Than Shwe will announce the election timetable and law by the end of February. The sources, who cannot be named due to the sensitivity of the information discussed, say that the army is recruiting candidates from outside its own ranks to compete in military-backed parties during the election, targeting businesspeople and community figures such as teachers in townships and villages across the country. Prominent candidates are likely to include leaders of the Union Solidarity and Development Association (USDA), a ?civil society organization? supported by the junta. The USDA has an estimated membership of 20 million people, many of whom have been forcibly recruited. Recently, Japan's Asahi Shimbun newspaper reported that the elections will run in October, but this cannot be confirmed yet. Burma watchers speculate that the junta will hold the polls on Oct. 10?the 10th day of the 10th month of the 10th year?because it is thought to be auspicious for senior regime figures, who are said to be firm believers in numerology. An announcement by Than Shwe at the end of February would give parties some time to organize in advance of an October election, if that rumored date turns out to be true. However, some analysts have speculated that the election date and electoral law promulgation would be done at short notice prior to the actual polling date, to give the junta party vehicles a head start over the rest of the field. Giving his Independence Day address on Jan. 4, Than Shwe stated that the election would take place sometime in 2010?and in a ?systematic way??before he went on to tell the Burmese people to make what he termed the right choice. ?Plans are under way to hold elections in a systematic way this year. In that regard, the entire people have to make correct choices,? he said. The extent of the choice available to the Burmese people has yet to be confirmed, however. Opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi is barred from competing due to her marriage to a British academic. Her presence on the campaign trail could galvanize her party and Burmese voters. However, she remains under house arrest and it seems unlikely that she will be released prior to the election, despite calls from the US, UN and Association of Southeast Asian Nations. Recently, junta Home Affairs Minister Maj-Gen Maung Oo told local officials in Kyaukpadaung Township that Suu Kyi will be released in November of this year. Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD) has not said if it will compete in the election. The current NLD position is based on Shwegondaing Declaration, which calls for reviewing and amending the 2008 Constitution, releasing all political prisoners, recognizing the 1990 election results and calls on the junta to talk to the opposition. The US has called for a national dialogue involving the regime, the NLD and other opposition parties, and ethnic minority groups before the election takes place, but has not urged the junta to review the Constitution, which will facilitate continued military rule. Others have called for the junta to allow Suu Kyi and senior NLD officials to meet to discuss the election and party policy. However, none of this has happened yet. ____________________________________ February 2, Mizzima News Four women activists awaits court verdict ? Myint Maung New Delhi ? District Court in Rangoon?s notorious Insein prison has set February 15 for pronouncing the verdict of four women activists including popular activist Naw Ohn Hla, who are supporters of Aung San Suu Kyi. The East District Court on Monday announced that it would pronounce the verdict on February 15, after the court had conducted the proceedings for the past four months against the activists. ?We submitted our final arguments. And the court fixed February 15 for pronouncing the verdict,? a defence counsel Kyaw Hoe told Mizzima. The activists ? Naw Ohn Hla, Myint Myint San, Cho Cho Lwin and Ma Cho ? were arrested while returning from offering alms to monks in a local monastery and for regularly praying for the release of detained opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi. The Rangoon Division Police Special Branch (SB) charged the four of instigating public unrest, under section 505(b) of the Penal Code. They were accused of offering 42 leaflets of the ?Kamwa? Buddhist scriptures to abbot U Pamaukha from Magwe Priyatti teaching monastery of Rangoon?s suburban Dagon Township. ?We argued that there are no sufficient evidences against the accused. The prosecutor was not able to present the Buddhist scriptures in court. And neither could they produce the abbot, who was said to have received the scripture, as the prosecution witness. So we argued that the case did not have enough evidences as there are no eye witnesses and no sound and valid evidence against them,? lawyer Kyaw Hoe said. ?We pleaded for their acquittal,? he added. Kyaw Hoe said, the public prosecutor made no arguments in court but said he would present a written argument later. ?The prosecution has to defend the legal points raised by the defence. But he did not give any counter arguments,? lawyer Kyaw Hoe said. Naw Ohn Hla, a popular activist have been leading prayer services held at Shwedagon pagoda on Tuesdays, for the release of detained pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi from her house arrest. The police arrested her and her three colleagues on October 3 last year, while returning from offering alms at the Magwe priyatti teaching monastery in Dagon Township. Meanwhile, another five activists were given up to nine years of prison terms by the court last month. Deputy Abbot U Wayama from Shwezedi monastery in Yenanchaung Town of Magwe Division, U Yeweta from Pali University West Ngwe Taung in Chauk Town, U Withuddha from West monastery of Pakokku Sasana Wipulla Yama, layman Ye Myint and Kyaw Khin from Mandalay and Pegu were given varying prison terms ranging between six to nine years under charges of illegal Associations Acts, Immigration Acts, illegally possessing foreign currency and inciting public unrest. The five of them were among the eight activists arrested from five townships across the country in August and early September 2009. Reportedly the defendants were sentenced in a trial without a defence counsel to defend them. The three other activists - Ko Nyo, Thanda Tun and abbot U Gaw Thita ? are also charged under Associations Act and Immigration Act and illegally possessing foreign currency. The three are currently facing trial and the court is set to re-examine the recalled witnesses, defence lawyers Kyaw Htay and Kyaw Hoe said. ____________________________________ ON THE BORDER February 2, Kachin News Group Burma junta deploys more troops to Kokang territory The Burmese military is intensifying the pressure on two armed ethnic groups in the northeast, by sending more troops to the militarily strategic Kokang territory, according to local eyewitnesses. Hundreds of fresh Burmese troops were transported to the frontlines east of the Salween River, by crossing the Thapa Bridge.Area residents said the area was captured in August, 2009, from the Peng Jiasheng-led Kokang rebels, also called the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA). A local eyewitness told the Kachin News Group today, the Burmese troops, from the Meiktila-based Light Infantry Division (LID) 99, were transported to the captured area in more than 30 military trucks, on January 8th. No Burmese soldiers, already deployed in the territory, withdrew after the arrival of the reinforcements, according to local people. A villager said, ?Just 20 trucks went back empty. It might be the buildup to war with the Kachin and Wa?. Local military analysts said the latest troop buildup is aimed at cutting access and communication between the 4th brigade of the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), located west of the Salween River and the United Wa State Army (UWSA), east of Kokang. They rejected the junta?s plans to disarm them and transform their armed-wings into a border guard force, under the control of the Burmese Army. The Kokang territory is strategic militarily, because it connects the areas occupied by the Kachin and Wa. A high ranking officer in the KIA?s 4th brigade headquarters, in Loikang, told KNG today, ?I think the deployment of fresh reinforcements by the Burmese Army is related to the announcement by exiled Kokang leader Peng Jiasheng about two months ago, who said he will celebrate Chinese New Year this month in Laogai (also spelled Laukai), his fallen capital?. On August 24, 2009, the Burmese Army broke the ceasefire agreement in the Kokang area, when they captured the rebel?s capital, Laogai. Over 35,000 Kokang Chinese refugees fled to the Chinese border town Nansan. Since last April, the Burmese military has had regular meetings with the Kachin. On January 29th, Kachin and Burmese military officials met for the 10th time, to negotiate transforming the KIA into the junta-proposed border guard force, as well as other issues. But, they have not met regularly with the Wa, who are the strongest ethnic armed group. Since early January, more Burmese troops have been deployed around the Wa territories. However, there are no fresh military reinforcements near Kachin held areas in both Kachin State and Northeast Shan State, according to KIA officers. ____________________________________ BUSINESS / TRADE February 2, Mizzima News ADB has no new lending plan for Burma ? Mungpi New Delhi ? The Asian Development Bank has no immediate plans to provide fresh assistance to Burma, even as media reports suggest that the World Bank is considering the idea of providing assistance to the military-ruled country. ADB, in an email message to Mizzima on Tuesday, said it along with the World Bank has joined the annual International Monetary Fund (IMF) Article IV missions to Burma, including the most recent IMF mission in late 2009. Though ADB had joined the IMF?s missions, which are conducted for analytical reports on development issues in Burma, it said, ?ADB has no plans to provide new assistance to Myanmar [Burma],? but will continue to monitor and analyse the economic situation in Burma and encourage the government to undertake reforms needed to reduce poverty and uplift the living standards of the people. The ADB stopped providing direct assistance to Burma since 1987 but it continues to monitor economic developments and maintain close coordination with other International Financial Institutes (IFIs) such as the World Bank, and the IMF. While the World Bank had also stopped providing new lending to Burma since 1987, as the country failed to repay arrears, the Financial Times on Thursday reported that it is thinking of providing assistance to Burma. James Adams, the World Bank?s Vice-President for East Asia and the Pacific, was reported telling the FT that officials from the bank and the ADB had recently travelled to Burma to look at ?possible future analytical work that could have a positive development impact for the people?. But any cooperation with Burma would be limited and the plan would be for World Bank specialists to proceed to Burma to provide technical assistance on projects. ?The World Bank has not provided financing to the government of Myanmar [Burma] since 1987 and we have made it clear to the government, shareholders and development partners that we have no intention of doing so under current circumstances,? Adams was quoted as saying. But with Burma still owing US $300 million to the international financial institution, Adams said the World Bank would not lend until the arrears are cleared. Economics Professor Sean Turnell at Sydney?s Macquarie University in Australia, who has been following Burma?s economic situation, earlier told Mizzima that the Burmese economy has been dragged to abysmal depths by the ruling junta?s mismanagement. Burma, once known as the ?Rice Bowl? of Southeast Asia, since 1962, when dictator General Newin assumed power in a military coup, has been facing economic deterioration forcing the United Nations to categorize it among the Least Developed Countries (LDC). ____________________________________ ASEAN February 2, Irrawaddy What's behind ASEAN's arms race? ? William Boot Why are Southeast Asian member-states spending billions of dollars to upgrade their military capabilities at a time when many are still struggling with the effects of a global economic downturn? The answer lies both within the region, where competing claims to offshore oil and gas reserves are increasing tensions, and beyond, with growing concerns that a rising China is seeking to expand its influence in its backyard At least four members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) have made substantial additions to their armed forces in recent months. Burma is buying Russian fighter planes, while Malaysia, Vietnam and Thailand have either bought or plan to buy submarines. Malaysia is spending more than US $990 million on two high-quality diesel-powered submarines, while Vietnam - which still cannot supply electricity to all its citizens - is committing more than $2 billion on Russian-made fighter planes and six submarines. Meanwhile, according to Russian media reports, impoverished Burma has spent $600 million on 20 Russian MiG-29 fighter planes. Thailand is so strapped for cash that it aims to buy a cheap secondhand submarine first so that it can join the new submariners club, but ultimately Bangkok also plans to spend hundreds of millions of dollars on several subsea vessels. Ironically, this scramble to acquire more weapons comes as ASEAN moves towards European Union-style economic and social unity with zero-tariff trading. But with rapidly rising demand for energy fuelling offshore exploration for oil and gas in disputed territory - particularly in the South China Sea, where four ASEAN members and China have staked conflicting territorial claims - national interests appear to trump regional fraternity. Political tension among ASEAN members over other issues is also complicating efforts to resolve competing claims amicably. Thailand recently cancelled an agreement with Cambodia to talk about a decade-old dispute over territorial claims in the Gulf of Thailand because of its neighbour's relations with fugitive former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. Large, untapped reserves of oil and gas are thought to exist in the disputed waters. Elsewhere in the region, Burma is in dispute with neighbouring Bangladesh over maritime boundaries in the Bay of Bengal, where both countries want to explore for gas. Their small navies have already confronted one another over an exploratory drilling rig authorized by the Burmese junta in waters claimed by the Bangladeshis. The costly arms buildup - in countries where millions still live on less than one dollar a day - is also fuelled by rivalry between the armaments industries of China and Russia, although European countries are also suppliers. Singapore, for instance, buys German arms, and Malaysia is buying French-Spanish submarines. Malaysia's expensive submarines purchase comes as the country's biggest income source, the state-owned oil and gas producer Petronas, announced a fall of more than 15 per cent in its contribution to government coffers for 2009-10 - amounting to hundreds of millions of dollars. Other countries are even more hard-pressed to meet the cost of this recent round of military expansion, but this hasn't prevented them from trying to keep up with others in the region. Submarines in particular are a "necessity" to strengthen Thailand's economy, insists Thai navy chief Adm Kamthorn Pumhirun. They will protect natural resources, fisheries and oil exploration, he said in a statement on Jan. 1 that outlined navy policy in the coming decade. As part of its long-term plans for boosting its naval capabilities, Thailand may buy a second-hand, Chinese-made submarine to train crews before investing in a small fleet. Meanwhile, ongoing conflicts within national borders are also contributing to the rush to acquire new weapons, sometimes from illegal sources. Some military experts believe that a cargo plane full of weapons seized in Bangkok in December was destined for Burma and not Iran or Sri Lanka as speculated. The plane was carrying anti-insurgency arms - rocket-propelled grenades, small missiles and small arms ammunition - from North Korea, which has a history of clandestine dealing with the Burmese junta. Since last year, Naypyidaw has intensified its drive to eliminate active resistance by groups such as the Karen National Union, which has waged an ethnic-based insurgency for more than six decades. The regime has also been preparing for a showdown with cease-fire groups that have so far refused to accede to demands to form themselves into border guard forces under Burmese military command. While it remains unclear if the weapons seized in Bangkok were intended to be used as part of the Burmese junta's arsenal against its ethnic enemies, questions have also been raised about the regime's purchase of MiG-29 fighter jets. The decision to buy planes from Russia rather than China has baffled some observers, who point out that Beijing is not only the junta's closest diplomatic ally and biggest investor - especially in the oil and gas sector - but traditionally its major arms supplier as well. The Burmese regime, however, had bought 12 MiGs from Russia in 2001 following a border clash with Thailand, and announced its plan to purchase a new fleet of MiG-29s only a few weeks after a trip to Burma by Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping, whose public comments about strengthening economic ties probably masked the real reason for his visit: to persuade the junta to buy Chinese planes instead of the Russian MiGs. Some have seen the move as part of an effort to reduce the regime's reliance on Chinese support, particularly in the wake of last year's attack on the Chinese-speaking Kokang ethnic minority, which sent some 37,000 refugees into China and earned the Burmese junta a rare rebuke from Beijing. But other observers see the decision in economic rather than political terms. "It looks like the Burmese did their homework. They might be closer to Beijing than to Moscow, but they still want value for their money," said a military analyst at a Western embassy in Bangkok, noting that the flying life of a Chinese plane is less than half that of a MiG. For the time being, China also appears content to prioritize economic considerations over other issues in its relations with Southeast Asia. But even as Beijing dramatically increases its trade with ASEAN through recently secured free trade agreements, it has also sought to assert military dominance of the South China Sea, which is bordered by ASEAN members Vietnam, the Philippines, Indonesia and Malaysia. Vietnam's big Russian weapons deal comes after China attempted to warn Vietnam and the Philippines off claims to the Spratly and Paracel islands, both linked to oil and gas prospecting hopes. Malaysia is also clearly focused on strengthening its position in this region. The base for its submarines is in Sabah, on northern Borneo - firmly in the South China Sea. In a December assessment, the Washington-based think tank, the Jamestown Foundation, said that Beijing's actions are "intensifying the regional arms race." But as Burma's decision to buy Russian jets instead of Chinese attests, China's growing weapons industry is not likely to profit much from Beijing's recent assertiveness in the region. Although China can offer its weapons technology - most of it copied from Russian systems - at cheaper prices, many countries in Southeast Asia seem prepared to pay a premium for weapons that are not supplied by a neighbour that is increasingly seen as a potential threat to regional stability. ____________________________________ REGIONAL February 2, Yonhap (South Korea) US official to press South Korea to address Burma human rights Seoul ? US Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell is expected to press South Korea to speak up about human rights abuses in Myanmar when he meets top South Korean officials this week, an informed source here said Tuesday. For South Korea, the Myanmar issue is subtle and complicated as it seeks to keep alliance with Washington robust and also improve economic and other relations with the Southeast Asian nation, formerly known as Burma. "Of course, the North Korean nuclear issue, the (Korea-US) free trade agreement, and pending alliance issues will be discussed here as main issues during Assistant Secretary Campbell's visit. But, in addition, he also plans to raise the Myanmar issue," the source told Yonhap News Agency, requesting anonymity. Campbell was to arrive in Seoul later Tuesday for a three-day stay during which he will meet Kim So'ng-hwan [Kim Sung-hwan], top presidential secretary for diplomacy and security affairs, chief nuclear envoy Wi So'ng-rak [Wi Sung-lac], and Deputy Foreign Minister Lee Yong-joon. The Obama administration wants South Korea to actively join its campaign to address human rights abuses by Myanmar's military junta, the source said, in the belief that Seoul's participation will help encourage other nations to join the initiative. But South Korea has maintained a tepid stance in consideration of its ties with the country. Seoul launched its "New Asia Diplomacy" imitative last year, aiming to strengthen relations with Asian neighbours. "It (the Myanmar problem) is a thorny issue for the South Korean government," the source said. "So far, South Korea has expressed its position on the matter indirectly - only saying that it is interested in the issue. It would be hard for South Korea to directly call for the Myanmar government to resolve the human rights issue." ____________________________________ INTERNATIONAL February 2, Associated Press via Kyodo News Documentary film on Myanmar clashes nominated as Oscar contender Los Angeles?A documentary film capturing clashes between antigovernment demonstrators and the junta in Myanmar in 2007 was nominated Tuesday as a contender for the 82nd Annual Academy Award for documentary feature, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Science said. Footage taken by Japanese video journalist Kenji Nagai, who was shot dead in Yangon in September 2007 during a clash, is also included in the film, "Burma VJ: Reporting From a Closed Country." The documentary, filmed by Danish filmmaker Jan Krogsgaard, won some film awards including the Amnesty Award at the 2008 Copenhagen International Documentary Film Festival and the World Cinema Documentary Editing Award at the 2009 Sundance Film Festival. Among the four other nominations in the documentary feature category is "the Cove," which tried to reveal brutality of dolphin hunting in the Japanese village of Taiji by using hidden cameras in barred areas. The Academy Awards will be presented March 7. ____________________________________ February 2, Irrawaddy Obama proposes $36.5 million to support democracy in Burma ? Lalit K Jha US President Barack Obama has earmarked $36.5 million in his 2011 budget to support democracy and humanitarian programs for Burma and along the Thai-Burma border. The money, earmarked under the US Administration's ?Economic Support Fund,? would be used within Burma but also for programs and activities involving Burmese student groups and other unnamed organizations located outside the country. US President Barack Obama speaks about his budget for fiscal year 2011, at the White House on February 1, 2009 in Washington, DC. (Photo: Getty Images) The proposed budget, covering the year beginning in Oct. 2010, now goes before the US Congress for its approval. The Administration proposes that in addition to aid for Burmese refugees provided under the heading "Migration and Refugee Assistance,'' $ 4 million shall be made available for community-based organizations operating in Thailand to provide food, medical and other humanitarian assistance to internally displaced persons in eastern Burma. According to the 2011 budgetary proposals, when implementing activities with funds appropriated for assistance for Burma, the implementing agency shall only support activities that are consistent with the principles and goals of the National League for Democracy in Burma. The budgetary proposals also reiterate that the Obama administration will continue to oppose at any international forums any loans or financial assistance to Burma. ?[The] Secretary of the Treasury shall instruct the United States executive director to each appropriate international financial institution in which the United States participates, to oppose and vote against the extension by such institution of any loan or financial or technical assistance or any other utilization of funds of the respective bank to and for Burma,? the proposals state. Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said in a radio interview that Washington had ?offered the potential? to Burma for developing better relations. Clinton told the Voice of America: ?We want to develop a better bilateral relationship with Burma and we have offered the potential of that. But of course we really hope to see the kind of progress that would demonstrate that Burma is ready to emerge from a period of authoritarian rule and some level of isolation and violation of human rights. ?The United States stands ready to work toward better relations with Burma and assistance but we have to see some evidence first.? Clinton repeated US calls for ?free fair and legitimate elections that give the people of Burma the chance to express their preference for their own leaders. We want to see Aung San Suu Kyi and other political prisoners released as soon as possible.? ____________________________________ OPINION / OTHER February 2, Irrawaddy How long will Burma?s new constitution last? ? Arnold Corso Given their fondness for astrology, it's certainly possible Burma?s generals consulted with their astrologers for advice on how to draft the 2008 Constitution and when to hold the elections. However, the reading of tea leaves and aligning of planets and birth dates aren?t the only means of predicting the future. Constitutional lawyers and political scientists have devised more reliable, less supernatural methods that consider a variety of design and structural factors in order to predict the health and potential longevity of new constitutions. In the book ?The Endurance of National Constitutions,? political scientists Zachary Elkins, Tom Ginsburg, and James Melton describe the recipe for success. They estimated that on average constitutions have a lifespan of only 19 years. If the public and special interest groups participate in drafting a constitution and vote for it in a referendum, they are more likely to uphold and defend it during times of crisis. Furthermore, detailing specific procedures and rights, such as the right to education, demonstrates a constitution?s relevance for everybody in society and prevents arguments over the meaning of the text. Finally, relatively flexible amendment procedures allow the government to adapt the constitution to changing circumstances. As history has witnessed, constitutions that include all of these features can last more than 200 years, compared to less than a decade for constitutions that do not follow the formula. Both of Burma?s past constitutions had a lifespan of around 14 years?shorter than average. While Burma's 1947 Constitution established a parliamentary democracy, it failed to resolve the widespread political factionalism and ethnic insurgencies of the early 1960s. Gen Ne Win?s coup d??tat simply delivered the final deathblow. In 1974, Ne Win promulgated a new constitution, which entrenched the Burma Socialist Programme Party in power. In the aftermath of the 1988 protests, the military suspended the constitution indefinitely. By contrast, the recent National Convention spent 17 years writing the 2008 Constitution?the longest constitutional drafting process in history. However, despite what Snr-Gen Than Shwe?s astrologers may have prophesied, Burma?s new constitution appears destined for a relatively short lifespan. The Burmese public, largely excluded from the constitutional drafting process, is already skeptical of the new constitution's intent and effectiveness in resolving the nation's challenges. The National Convention?s proceedings were shrouded in secrecy and delegates who opposed the military?s vision were reportedly expelled or silenced. The public did not see the final draft until weeks before the referendum, much less have a chance to comment on it. The Burmese people were further disillusioned by the May 2008 referendum, when the government claimed that 98 percent of the population turned out and 92 percent voted in favor?a startling and unlikely result so soon after Cyclone Nargis devastated the Irrawaddy Delta and killed more than 138,000 people. After this incredulous and tumultuous process, few Burmese outside the military will probably ever feel invested in the 2008 Constitution. The Constitution does include more detail and cover a wider scope of topics than average. The final English-language draft runs at 40,000 words, whereas most constitutions average around 14,000 words. Some topics, particularly state of emergency procedures, receive considerable attention. However, the sections about executive and legislative officials are unnecessarily repetitive, focusing excessively on the minutiae of qualifications and appointment procedures. More importantly, the Constitution barely explains the fundamental rights of Burmese citizens. It is not clear, for example, whether it prohibits gender discrimination in the tatmadaw (armed services). Even after 17 years of drafting, the final text leaves many crucial issues unresolved. Finally, as many Burma watchers have already noted, the Constitution imposes high barriers to amendment. Elkins, Ginsburg and Melton contend that ideally constitutions should permit amendments passed by around two-thirds of the legislature and signed by the head of state, citing India as an example. However, Burma?s Constitution requires more than 75 percent of the Hluttaw (parliament) to vote in favor of an amendment. Because military members will occupy 25 percent of the seats, this gives the tatmadaw an effective veto over amendments. In addition, certain provisions, including the chapter on Defense Services, can only be amended if approved by more than half of all eligible voters in a referendum. This will end up simply making the Constitution less adaptable to changing social and political conditions. No matter how long Burma?s new Constitution lasts, it will fundamentally alter Burmese politics. Nonetheless, true to the Buddhist concept of impermanence, the 2008 Constitution will not last forever. While it contains some details about government officials, the Constitution, as written, remains silent on many important issues that face the country. Moreover, because the amendment procedures are so cumbersome, it is likely that any future democratic Burmese government would simply abandon this Constitution rather than struggle to amend it. Few Burmese are strongly attachment to the Constitution and many would cheer its downfall. Based on these predictable shortcomings, it's possible?highly likely even?that Burma will have to hold another constitutional convention within a generation. Arnold Corso (a pseudonym) is a legal expert who has worked with human rights organizations in Southeast Asia. ____________________________________ February 1, Bangkok Post Junta thumbs nose at world ? Editorial Burma has responded clearly to an attempt at engagement by the United States, a hopeful statement from Asean partners and a pass from any sort of criticism for a year by Europe. The response is not just a dismissal of neighbours and others, but another violent, more horrendous crackdown on its people. In recent weeks, Burmese authorities have made things worse than ever inside the country and, by extension, shrugged off world opinion with a dismissive wave of the hand. It is clear now that there is no real chance that a scheduled election this year will improve the nation or move it towards democracy. The first sign that Burma intended to stay undemocratic came at a trial in early January. An army major and a foreign ministry official were sentenced to death for revealing so-called ''state secrets''. They had allegedly passed photos and information to Burmese in exile about relations with North Korea, including a tunnel network being constructed with the help of Pyongyang. Whether the secrets were really secrets is questionable, since photos of the tunnels were published on the internet. Clearly, the trial of Major Win Naing Kyaw and bureaucrat Thura Kyaw had two purposes. The first was to intimidate all Burmese into avoiding contact with foreigners or Burmese dissidents. The second was to make it clear the military junta will not be questioned, and will never be accountable. The case of Kyaw Zaw Lwin was yet another sign of the regime's iron fist. He was one of the organisers of the 1988 pro-democracy uprising. He was forced into exile in the US,where he became a citizen. He received a visa late last year in order to visit his ailing mother _ who is serving a prison sentence for political crimes. When he arrived at Rangoon airport, he was immediately arrested on charges of possessing a forged Burmese ID card, and for failure to declare foreign currency. He has reportedly been tortured, and confirmed to have been confined in a dog pen. His treatment recalls the cruelty of the Burmese regime in the case of Aung San Suu Kyi, the winner of the last election in Burma, 20 years ago. When her husband was dying, the regime refused to allow her to visit him on his deathbed. The requests of her own children to visit her have repeatedly been turned down. She has constantly been tarred and humiliated for having a foreign husband at all. And, of course, in its latest campaign to show its power, the regime chose to pick on Mrs Suu Kyi. Through sheer determination ''The Lady'' has become a world symbol of peaceful insistence that people must be free and governments must be accountable. To punish her for these ideals, the regime has locked her up for most of the past 20 years. Last week, the government mocked even its own thin veneer of justice. With a Supreme Court verdict due on the legality of her house arrest, Home Minister Maj Gen Maung Oo said in effect it really didn't matter. Mrs Suu Kyi will likely be freed in November, as the ruling generals _ including Maj Gen Maung Oo _ have already decided. Conveniently, this decision means that the country's leading proponent of democracy and its only prominent opposition leader will be confined and silenced for the new election. The timing of that vote, by the way, is still a state secret. But whenever it is, probably late this year, Mrs Suu Kyi will be locked down throughout the campaign and the vote. With this decision, Burma has forfeited all right to claim its election is legitimate, let alone democratic. ____________________________________ February 2, New Light of Myanmar Work hard together for improvement of Myanmar film industry Films have a great deal of influence on people, especially young people?s mentality and ethics. Film production is an industry based on the delicate combination of art and technology. For development of the film industry, the government is importing necessary equipment to be used in the film industry. It is necessary to try to produce high quality films and videos. For this, emergence of new generation technicians who are wellversed in production of films and videos is essential. In striving for development of Myanmar film industry, it is required to expand the market at home and abroad. For Myanmar films to be able to compete with foreign films, efforts will have to be made to reach international standards in all stages of the production of films. Only then will Myanmar films improve. In portraying our country and people, it is necessary to reflect them in such a way that dignity of the nation and the people come to be admired and respected by others. Improvement of Myanmar film industry depends not on any individual but on unity, understanding, diligence, perseverance and cooperation of all those in the film world such as performers, directors, script writers, editors, photographers and others. If all those in the Myanmar film world work hard together for production of good Myanmar films of international standards, Myanmar films will certainly be able to penetrate the international film market. ____________________________________ PRESS RELEASE February 2, Karen Women Organization Emergency appeal to the Royal Thai Government not to forcibly repatriate Karen refugees back to heavily land-mined zone The Karen Women Organization is urgently appealing to the Royal Thai Government not to forcibly repatriate over 3,000 Karen refugees staying in Tha Song Yang, Tak Province, back to a heavily landmined war-zone in Burma. The majority of the refugees are women and children. This group of refugees have been told by the Thai Army that they must all be returned to Burma by February 15. The refugees were told that actions to remove them will begin on February 5th, this week. They are now living in fear of imminent forced repatriation into an area which is heavily land-mined, and where active conflict can re-ignite at any moment. On January 28, the local Authority Thai Army and his men forced 50 refugees from this group back across the border between 9 to 11 am to start cleaning up their homes in the village of Ler Per Her in preparation for their return. This included 20 women and girls, some under 16 years of age. However, KWO would like to state clearly that this area is not safe at all and refugees groups are not willing to return at this point in time. In recent months, five refugees from the area have been either injured or killed by landmines when slipping back into Burma to look after livestock they left behind. This included a 13-year-old boy whose leg was blown off in August last year, and a woman who was 8 months pregnant had her foot blown apart on January 18, 2010. Blooming Night Zan, Joint Secretary 1 of KWO said, "This evidence of people stepping on the landmines is a sure sign that the situation is still very dangerous. Sending refugees back against their will into such a dangerous situation violates the international law of non-refoulement. Although the Thai government is not a signatory of the Refugee Convention, the KWO is very grateful to His Majesty the Thai King, and the Thai government, for a long history of kindness to refugees. We appeal to the Thai authorities now to show your humanitarian kindness again." The Karen refugees fled from fighting in the Ler Per Her area in Karen State, Burma, in June 2009. The refugees were granted temporary refuge in three locations, Mae U Su, Mae Salit and Nong Bua, but have not yet been allowed to move to Mae La refugee camp in Tak Province. Since their arrival, local Thai authorities have repeatedly pressured the refugees to return home despite evidence that the area is still very dangerous. The Karen Women Organization is gravely concerned at the planned forced repatriation of these refugees into such a dangerous area and we urgently appeal to the Royal Thai Government to halt the repatriation and continue to provide these refugees with protection on Thai soil. Contact Person: Blooming Night Zan: 089 269 6272 Karen Women Organization P.O. 19, Mae Sariang, Mae Hong Son, 58110, Thailand, Tel: 66-53-681 084 Fax: 66-53-621410, Email: kwocentral at tttmaxnet.com Website: www.karenwomen.org