BurmaNet News, February 2, 2010

[Editor]

February 2, 2010, Issue #3888

QUOTE OF THE DAY
“A documentary film capturing clashes between antigovernment demonstrators
and the junta in Myanmar in 2007 was nominated Tuesday as a contender for
the 82nd Annual Academy Award for documentary feature, the Academy of
Motion Picture Arts and Science said.”  - AP/Kyodo News

INSIDE BURMA
AFP: Burma may free Suu Kyi during polls
Irrawaddy: Election announcement in February?
Mizzima News: Four women activists awaits court verdict

ON THE BORDER
Kachin News Group: Burma junta deploys more troops to Kokang territory

BUSINESS / TRADE
Mizzima News: ADB has no new lending plan for Burma

ASEAN
Irrawaddy: What's behind ASEAN's arms race?

REGIONAL
Yonhap (South Korea): US official to press South Korea to address Burma
human rights

INTERNATIONAL
AP via Kyodo News: Documentary film on Myanmar clashes nominated as Oscar
contender
Irrawaddy: Obama proposes $36.5 million to support democracy in Burma

OPINION / OTHER
Irrawaddy: How long will Burma’s new constitution last? – Arnold Corso
Bangkok Post: Junta thumbs nose at world – Editorial
New Light of Myanmar: Work hard together for improvement of Myanmar film
industry

PRESS RELEASE
KWO: Emergency appeal to the Royal Thai Government not to forcibly
repatriate Karen refugees back to heavily land-mined zone





____________________________________
INSIDE BURMA

February 2, Agence France Presse
Burma may free Suu Kyi during polls

Aung San Suu Kyi may be freed during the national elections in Burma, Thai
Foreign Minister Kasit Piromya said Tuesday, predicting the polls could be
held during the second half of 2010.

"What is the gut feeling? Maybe at the time of the declaration or the
holding of the elections," he said, responding to a question on when the
opposition leader, whose house arrest sentence had recently been extended
until November 2010, could be freed.

"Around that time... maybe a day after or a day before," added Kasit.

A date has still not been announced for the elections, which will be the
first since 1990 when the junta refused to recognise the landslide win of
the National League for Democracy (NLD), led by Suu Kyi.

Kasit believes that "the elections most probably will be in the second
half of the year."

He noted that during meetings of a regional bloc known as Asean, Burma's
prime minister had been "giving us the assurance ... that elections will
be held this year" and that there will definitely be a "new government."

"He (the prime minister) mentioned about 70 to 80 percent completion of
election law and political party law and the completion of the
parliamentary site in the new capital and so on, so I predict it will take
place in the second half of this year," added Kasit.

The foreign minister also cautioned against sanctions as a way to put
pressure on the junta, saying the tactic has "proven to be a failure."

"Why hurt the Burma people?" he told journalists in Geneva.

Isolating Burma also risks cornering it "into the arms of certain
countries," he warned.

"The Indians and the Chinese don't want to have any sanctions vis-a-vis
Burma. So in that sense you allow a special relationship to happen. Would
that be detrimental or not to the whole cooperative effort?" he said.

Rather, Kasit referred to the recent US move to engage in dialogue with
the junta, saying that put the ball now in the junta's court.

"The world is waiting for Burma at the border, so it's up to Burma to
respond in a positive manner," he added.

Home Affairs Minister Maung Oo reportedly told a meeting of local
officials in central Burma last month that the release of 64-year-old Suu
Kyi, who has been in detention for 14 of the past 20 years, would come in
November.

A decision is expected from Burma's top court within few weeks on an
appeal against her conviction last August. The conviction related to an
incident in which a US man swam to her house and she was sentenced to
another 18 months under house arrest.

____________________________________

February 2, Irrawaddy
Election announcement in February? – Simon Roughneen

Bangkok — According to sources in the Burmese military, junta leader
Snr-Gen Than Shwe will announce the election timetable and law by the end
of February.

The sources, who cannot be named due to the sensitivity of the information
discussed, say that the army is recruiting candidates from outside its own
ranks to compete in military-backed parties during the election, targeting
businesspeople and community figures such as teachers in townships and
villages across the country.

Prominent candidates are likely to include leaders of the Union Solidarity
and Development Association (USDA), a “civil society organization”
supported by the junta. The USDA has an estimated membership of 20 million
people, many of whom have been forcibly recruited.

Recently, Japan's Asahi Shimbun newspaper reported that the elections will
run in October, but this cannot be confirmed yet. Burma watchers speculate
that the junta will hold the polls on Oct. 10—the 10th day of the 10th
month of the 10th year—because it is thought to be auspicious for senior
regime figures, who are said to be firm believers in numerology.

An announcement by Than Shwe at the end of February would give parties
some time to organize in advance of an October election, if that rumored
date turns out to be true. However, some analysts have speculated that the
election date and electoral law promulgation would be done at short notice
prior to the actual polling date, to give the junta party vehicles a head
start over the rest of the field.

Giving his Independence Day address on Jan. 4, Than Shwe stated that the
election would take place sometime in 2010—and in a “systematic
way”—before he went on to tell the Burmese people to make what he termed
the right choice.

“Plans are under way to hold elections in a systematic way this year. In
that regard, the entire people have to make correct choices,” he said.

The extent of the choice available to the Burmese people has yet to be
confirmed, however. Opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi is barred from
competing due to her marriage to a British academic.

Her presence on the campaign trail could galvanize her party and Burmese
voters. However, she remains under house arrest and it seems unlikely that
she will be released prior to the election, despite calls from the US, UN
and Association of Southeast Asian Nations. Recently, junta Home Affairs
Minister Maj-Gen Maung Oo told local officials in Kyaukpadaung Township
that Suu Kyi will be released in November of this year.

Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD) has not said if it will
compete in the election. The current NLD position is based on Shwegondaing
Declaration, which calls for reviewing and amending the 2008 Constitution,
releasing all political prisoners, recognizing the 1990 election results
and calls on the junta to talk to the opposition.

The US has called for a national dialogue involving the regime, the NLD
and other opposition parties, and ethnic minority groups before the
election takes place, but has not urged the junta to review the
Constitution, which will facilitate continued military rule.

Others have called for the junta to allow Suu Kyi and senior NLD officials
to meet to discuss the election and party policy. However, none of this
has happened yet.
____________________________________

February 2, Mizzima News
Four women activists awaits court verdict – Myint Maung

New Delhi – District Court in Rangoon’s notorious Insein prison has set
February 15 for pronouncing the verdict of four women activists including
popular activist Naw Ohn Hla, who are supporters of Aung San Suu Kyi.

The East District Court on Monday announced that it would pronounce the
verdict on February 15, after the court had conducted the proceedings for
the past four months against the activists.

“We submitted our final arguments. And the court fixed February 15 for
pronouncing the verdict,” a defence counsel Kyaw Hoe told Mizzima.

The activists – Naw Ohn Hla, Myint Myint San, Cho Cho Lwin and Ma Cho –
were arrested while returning from offering alms to monks in a local
monastery and for regularly praying for the release of detained opposition
leader Aung San Suu Kyi.

The Rangoon Division Police Special Branch (SB) charged the four of
instigating public unrest, under section 505(b) of the Penal Code. They
were accused of offering 42 leaflets of the ‘Kamwa’ Buddhist scriptures to
abbot U Pamaukha from Magwe Priyatti teaching monastery of Rangoon’s
suburban Dagon Township.

“We argued that there are no sufficient evidences against the accused. The
prosecutor was not able to present the Buddhist scriptures in court. And
neither could they produce the abbot, who was said to have received the
scripture, as the prosecution witness. So we argued that the case did not
have enough evidences as there are no eye witnesses and no sound and valid
evidence against them,” lawyer Kyaw Hoe said.

“We pleaded for their acquittal,” he added.

Kyaw Hoe said, the public prosecutor made no arguments in court but said
he would present a written argument later.

“The prosecution has to defend the legal points raised by the defence. But
he did not give any counter arguments,” lawyer Kyaw Hoe said.

Naw Ohn Hla, a popular activist have been leading prayer services held at
Shwedagon pagoda on Tuesdays, for the release of detained pro-democracy
leader Aung San Suu Kyi from her house arrest.

The police arrested her and her three colleagues on October 3 last year,
while returning from offering alms at the Magwe priyatti teaching
monastery in Dagon Township.

Meanwhile, another five activists were given up to nine years of prison
terms by the court last month.

Deputy Abbot U Wayama from Shwezedi monastery in Yenanchaung Town of Magwe
Division, U Yeweta from Pali University West Ngwe Taung in Chauk Town, U
Withuddha from West monastery of Pakokku Sasana Wipulla Yama, layman Ye
Myint and Kyaw Khin from Mandalay and Pegu were given varying prison terms
ranging between six to nine years under charges of illegal Associations
Acts, Immigration Acts, illegally possessing foreign currency and inciting
public unrest.

The five of them were among the eight activists arrested from five
townships across the country in August and early September 2009. 
Reportedly the defendants were sentenced in a trial without a defence
counsel to defend them.

The three other activists - Ko Nyo, Thanda Tun and abbot U Gaw Thita – are
also charged under Associations Act and Immigration Act and illegally
possessing foreign currency. The three are currently facing trial and the
court is set to re-examine the recalled witnesses, defence lawyers Kyaw
Htay and Kyaw Hoe said.

____________________________________
ON THE BORDER

February 2, Kachin News Group
Burma junta deploys more troops to Kokang territory

The Burmese military is intensifying the pressure on two armed ethnic
groups in the northeast, by sending more troops to the militarily
strategic Kokang territory, according to local eyewitnesses.

Hundreds of fresh Burmese troops were transported to the frontlines east
of the Salween River, by crossing the Thapa Bridge.Area residents said the
area was captured in August, 2009, from the Peng Jiasheng-led Kokang
rebels, also called the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA).

A local eyewitness told the Kachin News Group today, the Burmese troops,
from the Meiktila-based Light Infantry Division (LID) 99, were transported
to the captured area in more than 30 military trucks, on January 8th.

No Burmese soldiers, already deployed in the territory, withdrew after the
arrival of the reinforcements, according to local people.

A villager said, “Just 20 trucks went back empty. It might be the buildup
to war with the Kachin and Wa”.

Local military analysts said the latest troop buildup is aimed at cutting
access and communication between the 4th brigade of the Kachin
Independence Army (KIA), located west of the Salween River and the United
Wa State Army (UWSA), east of Kokang.

They rejected the junta’s plans to disarm them and transform their
armed-wings into a border guard force, under the control of the Burmese
Army.

The Kokang territory is strategic militarily, because it connects the
areas occupied by the Kachin and Wa.

A high ranking officer in the KIA’s 4th brigade headquarters, in Loikang,
told KNG today, “I think the deployment of fresh reinforcements by the
Burmese Army is related to the announcement by exiled Kokang leader Peng
Jiasheng about two months ago, who said he will celebrate Chinese New Year
this month in Laogai (also spelled Laukai), his fallen capital”.

On August 24, 2009, the Burmese Army broke the ceasefire agreement in the
Kokang area, when they captured the rebel’s capital, Laogai.

Over 35,000 Kokang Chinese refugees fled to the Chinese border town Nansan.

Since last April, the Burmese military has had regular meetings with the
Kachin. On January 29th, Kachin and Burmese military officials met for the
10th time, to negotiate transforming the KIA into the junta-proposed
border guard force, as well as other issues.

But, they have not met regularly with the Wa, who are the strongest ethnic
armed group.

Since early January, more Burmese troops have been deployed around the Wa
territories.

However, there are no fresh military reinforcements near Kachin held areas
in both Kachin State and Northeast Shan State, according to KIA officers.

____________________________________
BUSINESS / TRADE

February 2, Mizzima News
ADB has no new lending plan for Burma – Mungpi

New Delhi – The Asian Development Bank has no immediate plans to provide
fresh assistance to Burma, even as media reports suggest that the World
Bank is considering the idea of providing assistance to the military-ruled
country.

ADB, in an email message to Mizzima on Tuesday, said it along with the
World Bank has joined the annual International Monetary Fund (IMF) Article
IV missions to Burma, including the most recent IMF mission in late 2009.

Though ADB had joined the IMF’s missions, which are conducted for
analytical reports on development issues in Burma, it said, “ADB has no
plans to provide new assistance to Myanmar [Burma],” but will continue to
monitor and analyse the economic situation in Burma and encourage the
government to undertake reforms needed to reduce poverty and uplift the
living standards of the people.

The ADB stopped providing direct assistance to Burma since 1987 but it
continues to monitor economic developments and maintain close coordination
with other International Financial Institutes (IFIs) such as the World
Bank, and the IMF.

While the World Bank had also stopped providing new lending to Burma since
1987, as the country failed to repay arrears, the Financial Times on
Thursday reported that it is thinking of providing assistance to Burma.

James Adams, the World Bank’s Vice-President for East Asia and the
Pacific, was reported telling the FT that officials from the bank and the
ADB had recently travelled to Burma to look at “possible future analytical
work that could have a positive development impact for the people”.

But any cooperation with Burma would be limited and the plan would be for
World Bank specialists to proceed to Burma to provide technical assistance
on projects.

“The World Bank has not provided financing to the government of Myanmar
[Burma] since 1987 and we have made it clear to the government,
shareholders and development partners that we have no intention of doing
so under current circumstances,” Adams was quoted as saying.

But with Burma still owing US $300 million to the international financial
institution, Adams said the World Bank would not lend until the arrears
are cleared.

Economics Professor Sean Turnell at Sydney’s Macquarie University in
Australia, who has been following Burma’s economic situation, earlier told
Mizzima that the Burmese economy has been dragged to abysmal depths by the
ruling junta’s mismanagement.

Burma, once known as the ‘Rice Bowl’ of Southeast Asia, since 1962, when 
dictator General Newin assumed power in a military coup, has been facing
economic deterioration forcing the United Nations to categorize it among
the Least Developed Countries (LDC).

____________________________________
ASEAN

February 2, Irrawaddy
What's behind ASEAN's arms race? – William Boot

Why are Southeast Asian member-states spending billions of dollars to
upgrade their military capabilities at a time when many are still
struggling with the effects of a global economic downturn? The answer lies
both within the region, where competing claims to offshore oil and gas
reserves are increasing tensions, and beyond, with growing concerns that a
rising China is seeking to expand its influence in its backyard

At least four members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations
(ASEAN) have made substantial additions to their armed forces in recent
months. Burma is buying Russian fighter planes, while Malaysia, Vietnam
and Thailand have either bought or plan to buy submarines.

Malaysia is spending more than US $990 million on two high-quality
diesel-powered submarines, while Vietnam - which still cannot supply
electricity to all its citizens - is committing more than $2 billion on
Russian-made fighter planes and six submarines. Meanwhile, according to
Russian media reports, impoverished Burma has spent $600 million on 20
Russian MiG-29 fighter planes.

Thailand is so strapped for cash that it aims to buy a cheap secondhand
submarine first so that it can join the new submariners club, but
ultimately Bangkok also plans to spend hundreds of millions of dollars on
several subsea vessels.

Ironically, this scramble to acquire more weapons comes as ASEAN moves
towards European Union-style economic and social unity with zero-tariff
trading. But with rapidly rising demand for energy fuelling offshore
exploration for oil and gas in disputed territory - particularly in the
South China Sea, where four ASEAN members and China have staked
conflicting territorial claims - national interests appear to trump
regional fraternity.

Political tension among ASEAN members over other issues is also
complicating efforts to resolve competing claims amicably. Thailand
recently cancelled an agreement with Cambodia to talk about a decade-old
dispute over territorial claims in the Gulf of Thailand because of its
neighbour's relations with fugitive former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin
Shinawatra. Large, untapped reserves of oil and gas are thought to exist
in the disputed waters.

Elsewhere in the region, Burma is in dispute with neighbouring Bangladesh
over maritime boundaries in the Bay of Bengal, where both countries want
to explore for gas. Their small navies have already confronted one another
over an exploratory drilling rig authorized by the Burmese junta in waters
claimed by the Bangladeshis.

The costly arms buildup - in countries where millions still live on less
than one dollar a day - is also fuelled by rivalry between the armaments
industries of China and Russia, although European countries are also
suppliers. Singapore, for instance, buys German arms, and Malaysia is
buying French-Spanish submarines.

Malaysia's expensive submarines purchase comes as the country's biggest
income source, the state-owned oil and gas producer Petronas, announced a
fall of more than 15 per cent in its contribution to government coffers
for 2009-10 - amounting to hundreds of millions of dollars.

Other countries are even more hard-pressed to meet the cost of this recent
round of military expansion, but this hasn't prevented them from trying to
keep up with others in the region.

Submarines in particular are a "necessity" to strengthen Thailand's
economy, insists Thai navy chief Adm Kamthorn Pumhirun. They will protect
natural resources, fisheries and oil exploration, he said in a statement
on Jan. 1 that outlined navy policy in the coming decade. As part of its
long-term plans for boosting its naval capabilities, Thailand may buy a
second-hand, Chinese-made submarine to train crews before investing in a
small fleet.

Meanwhile, ongoing conflicts within national borders are also contributing
to the rush to acquire new weapons, sometimes from illegal sources.

Some military experts believe that a cargo plane full of weapons seized in
Bangkok in December was destined for Burma and not Iran or Sri Lanka as
speculated. The plane was carrying anti-insurgency arms - rocket-propelled
grenades, small missiles and small arms ammunition - from North Korea,
which has a history of clandestine dealing with the Burmese junta.

Since last year, Naypyidaw has intensified its drive to eliminate active
resistance by groups such as the Karen National Union, which has waged an
ethnic-based insurgency for more than six decades. The regime has also
been preparing for a showdown with cease-fire groups that have so far
refused to accede to demands to form themselves into border guard forces
under Burmese military command.

While it remains unclear if the weapons seized in Bangkok were intended to
be used as part of the Burmese junta's arsenal against its ethnic enemies,
questions have also been raised about the regime's purchase of MiG-29
fighter jets. The decision to buy planes from Russia rather than China has
baffled some observers, who point out that Beijing is not only the junta's
closest diplomatic ally and biggest investor - especially in the oil and
gas sector - but traditionally its major arms supplier as well.

The Burmese regime, however, had bought 12 MiGs from Russia in 2001
following a border clash with Thailand, and announced its plan to purchase
a new fleet of MiG-29s only a few weeks after a trip to Burma by Chinese
Vice President Xi Jinping, whose public comments about strengthening
economic ties probably masked the real reason for his visit: to persuade
the junta to buy Chinese planes instead of the Russian MiGs.

Some have seen the move as part of an effort to reduce the regime's
reliance on Chinese support, particularly in the wake of last year's
attack on the Chinese-speaking Kokang ethnic minority, which sent some
37,000 refugees into China and earned the Burmese junta a rare rebuke from
Beijing.

But other observers see the decision in economic rather than political terms.

"It looks like the Burmese did their homework. They might be closer to
Beijing than to Moscow, but they still want value for their money," said a
military analyst at a Western embassy in Bangkok, noting that the flying
life of a Chinese plane is less than half that of a MiG.

For the time being, China also appears content to prioritize economic
considerations over other issues in its relations with Southeast Asia. But
even as Beijing dramatically increases its trade with ASEAN through
recently secured free trade agreements, it has also sought to assert
military dominance of the South China Sea, which is bordered by ASEAN
members Vietnam, the Philippines, Indonesia and Malaysia.

Vietnam's big Russian weapons deal comes after China attempted to warn
Vietnam and the Philippines off claims to the Spratly and Paracel islands,
both linked to oil and gas prospecting hopes.

Malaysia is also clearly focused on strengthening its position in this
region. The base for its submarines is in Sabah, on northern Borneo -
firmly in the South China Sea.

In a December assessment, the Washington-based think tank, the Jamestown
Foundation, said that Beijing's actions are "intensifying the regional
arms race."

But as Burma's decision to buy Russian jets instead of Chinese attests,
China's growing weapons industry is not likely to profit much from
Beijing's recent assertiveness in the region. Although China can offer its
weapons technology - most of it copied from Russian systems - at cheaper
prices, many countries in Southeast Asia seem prepared to pay a premium
for weapons that are not supplied by a neighbour that is increasingly seen
as a potential threat to regional stability.

____________________________________
REGIONAL

February 2, Yonhap (South Korea)
US official to press South Korea to address Burma human rights

Seoul – US Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell is expected to press
South Korea to speak up about human rights abuses in Myanmar when he meets
top South Korean officials this week, an informed source here said
Tuesday.

For South Korea, the Myanmar issue is subtle and complicated as it seeks
to keep alliance with Washington robust and also improve economic and
other relations with the Southeast Asian nation, formerly known as Burma.

"Of course, the North Korean nuclear issue, the (Korea-US) free trade
agreement, and pending alliance issues will be discussed here as main
issues during Assistant Secretary Campbell's visit. But, in addition, he
also plans to raise the Myanmar issue," the source told Yonhap News
Agency, requesting anonymity.

Campbell was to arrive in Seoul later Tuesday for a three-day stay during
which he will meet Kim So'ng-hwan [Kim Sung-hwan], top presidential
secretary for diplomacy and security affairs, chief nuclear envoy Wi
So'ng-rak [Wi Sung-lac], and Deputy Foreign Minister Lee Yong-joon.

The Obama administration wants South Korea to actively join its campaign
to address human rights abuses by Myanmar's military junta, the source
said, in the belief that Seoul's participation will help encourage other
nations to join the initiative.

But South Korea has maintained a tepid stance in consideration of its ties
with the country. Seoul launched its "New Asia Diplomacy" imitative last
year, aiming to strengthen relations with Asian neighbours.

"It (the Myanmar problem) is a thorny issue for the South Korean
government," the source said. "So far, South Korea has expressed its
position on the matter indirectly - only saying that it is interested in
the issue. It would be hard for South Korea to directly call for the
Myanmar government to resolve the human rights issue."

____________________________________
INTERNATIONAL

February 2, Associated Press via Kyodo News
Documentary film on Myanmar clashes nominated as Oscar contender

Los Angeles—A documentary film capturing clashes between antigovernment
demonstrators and the junta in Myanmar in 2007 was nominated Tuesday as a
contender for the 82nd Annual Academy Award for documentary feature, the
Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Science said.

Footage taken by Japanese video journalist Kenji Nagai, who was shot dead
in Yangon in September 2007 during a clash, is also included in the film,
"Burma VJ: Reporting From a Closed Country."

The documentary, filmed by Danish filmmaker Jan Krogsgaard, won some film
awards including the Amnesty Award at the 2008 Copenhagen International
Documentary Film Festival and the World Cinema Documentary Editing Award
at the 2009 Sundance Film Festival.

Among the four other nominations in the documentary feature category is
"the Cove," which tried to reveal brutality of dolphin hunting in the
Japanese village of Taiji by using hidden cameras in barred areas.

The Academy Awards will be presented March 7.
____________________________________

February 2, Irrawaddy
Obama proposes $36.5 million to support democracy in Burma – Lalit K Jha

US President Barack Obama has earmarked $36.5 million in his 2011 budget
to support democracy and humanitarian programs for Burma and along the
Thai-Burma border.

The money, earmarked under the US Administration's “Economic Support
Fund,” would be used within Burma but also for programs and activities
involving Burmese student groups and other unnamed organizations located
outside the country.
US President Barack Obama speaks about his budget for fiscal year 2011, at
the White House on February 1, 2009 in Washington, DC. (Photo: Getty
Images)

The proposed budget, covering the year beginning in Oct. 2010, now goes
before the US Congress for its approval.

The Administration proposes that in addition to aid for Burmese refugees
provided under the heading "Migration and Refugee Assistance,'' $ 4
million shall be made available for community-based organizations
operating in Thailand to provide food, medical and other humanitarian
assistance to internally displaced persons in eastern Burma.

According to the 2011 budgetary proposals, when implementing activities
with funds appropriated for assistance for Burma, the implementing agency
shall only support activities that are consistent with the principles and
goals of the National League for Democracy in Burma.

The budgetary proposals also reiterate that the Obama administration will
continue to oppose at any international forums any loans or financial
assistance to Burma.

“[The] Secretary of the Treasury shall instruct the United States
executive director to each appropriate international financial institution
in which the United States participates, to oppose and vote against the
extension by such institution of any loan or financial or technical
assistance or any other utilization of funds of the respective bank to and
for Burma,” the proposals state.

Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said in a radio interview
that Washington had “offered the potential” to Burma for developing better
relations.

Clinton told the Voice of America: “We want to develop a better bilateral
relationship with Burma and we have offered the potential of that. But of
course we really hope to see the kind of progress that would demonstrate
that Burma is ready to emerge from a period of authoritarian rule and some
level of isolation and violation of human rights.

“The United States stands ready to work toward better relations with Burma
and assistance but we have to see some evidence first.”

Clinton repeated US calls for “free fair and legitimate elections that
give the people of Burma the chance to express their preference for their
own leaders. We want to see Aung San Suu Kyi and other political prisoners
released as soon as possible.”

____________________________________
OPINION / OTHER

February 2, Irrawaddy
How long will Burma’s new constitution last? – Arnold Corso

Given their fondness for astrology, it's certainly possible Burma’s
generals consulted with their astrologers for advice on how to draft the
2008 Constitution and when to hold the elections.

However, the reading of tea leaves and aligning of planets and birth dates
aren’t the only means of predicting the future. Constitutional lawyers and
political scientists have devised more reliable, less supernatural methods
that consider a variety of design and structural factors in order to
predict the health and potential longevity of new constitutions.

In the book “The Endurance of National Constitutions,” political
scientists Zachary Elkins, Tom Ginsburg, and James Melton describe the
recipe for success. They estimated that on average constitutions have a
lifespan of only 19 years.

If the public and special interest groups participate in drafting a
constitution and vote for it in a referendum, they are more likely to
uphold and defend it during times of crisis. Furthermore, detailing
specific procedures and rights, such as the right to education,
demonstrates a constitution’s relevance for everybody in society and
prevents arguments over the meaning of the text. Finally, relatively
flexible amendment procedures allow the government to adapt the
constitution to changing circumstances. As history has witnessed,
constitutions that include all of these features can last more than 200
years, compared to less than a decade for constitutions that do not follow
the formula.

Both of Burma’s past constitutions had a lifespan of around 14
years—shorter than average. While Burma's 1947 Constitution established a
parliamentary democracy, it failed to resolve the widespread political
factionalism and ethnic insurgencies of the early 1960s. Gen Ne Win’s coup
d’état simply delivered the final deathblow. In 1974, Ne Win promulgated a
new constitution, which entrenched the Burma Socialist Programme Party in
power. In the aftermath of the 1988 protests, the military suspended the
constitution indefinitely.

By contrast, the recent National Convention spent 17 years writing the
2008 Constitution—the longest constitutional drafting process in history.
However, despite what Snr-Gen Than Shwe’s astrologers may have prophesied,
Burma’s new constitution appears destined for a relatively short lifespan.

The Burmese public, largely excluded from the constitutional drafting
process, is already skeptical of the new constitution's intent and
effectiveness in resolving the nation's challenges. The National
Convention’s proceedings were shrouded in secrecy and delegates who
opposed the military’s vision were reportedly expelled or silenced. The
public did not see the final draft until weeks before the referendum, much
less have a chance to comment on it.

The Burmese people were further disillusioned by the May 2008 referendum,
when the government claimed that 98 percent of the population turned out
and 92 percent voted in favor—a startling and unlikely result so soon
after Cyclone Nargis devastated the Irrawaddy Delta and killed more than
138,000 people. After this incredulous and tumultuous process, few Burmese
outside the military will probably ever feel invested in the 2008
Constitution.

The Constitution does include more detail and cover a wider scope of
topics than average. The final English-language draft runs at 40,000
words, whereas most constitutions average around 14,000 words. Some
topics, particularly state of emergency procedures, receive considerable
attention. However, the sections about executive and legislative officials
are unnecessarily repetitive, focusing excessively on the minutiae of
qualifications and appointment procedures. More importantly, the
Constitution barely explains the fundamental rights of Burmese citizens.
It is not clear, for example, whether it prohibits gender discrimination
in the tatmadaw (armed services). Even after 17 years of drafting, the
final text leaves many crucial issues unresolved.

Finally, as many Burma watchers have already noted, the Constitution
imposes high barriers to amendment. Elkins, Ginsburg and Melton contend
that ideally constitutions should permit amendments passed by around
two-thirds of the legislature and signed by the head of state, citing
India as an example.

However, Burma’s Constitution requires more than 75 percent of the Hluttaw
(parliament) to vote in favor of an amendment. Because military members
will occupy 25 percent of the seats, this gives the tatmadaw an effective
veto over amendments.

In addition, certain provisions, including the chapter on Defense
Services, can only be amended if approved by more than half of all
eligible voters in a referendum. This will end up simply making the
Constitution less adaptable to changing social and political conditions.

No matter how long Burma’s new Constitution lasts, it will fundamentally
alter Burmese politics. Nonetheless, true to the Buddhist concept of
impermanence, the 2008 Constitution will not last forever.

While it contains some details about government officials, the
Constitution, as written, remains silent on many important issues that
face the country. Moreover, because the amendment procedures are so
cumbersome, it is likely that any future democratic Burmese government
would simply abandon this Constitution rather than struggle to amend it.

Few Burmese are strongly attachment to the Constitution and many would
cheer its downfall. Based on these predictable shortcomings, it's
possible—highly likely even—that Burma will have to hold another
constitutional convention within a generation.

Arnold Corso (a pseudonym) is a legal expert who has worked with human
rights organizations in Southeast Asia.
____________________________________

February 1, Bangkok Post
Junta thumbs nose at world – Editorial

Burma has responded clearly to an attempt at engagement by the United
States, a hopeful statement from Asean partners and a pass from any sort
of criticism for a year by Europe. The response is not just a dismissal of
neighbours and others, but another violent, more horrendous crackdown on
its people. In recent weeks, Burmese authorities have made things worse
than ever inside the country and, by extension, shrugged off world opinion
with a dismissive wave of the hand. It is clear now that there is no real
chance that a scheduled election this year will improve the nation or move
it towards democracy.

The first sign that Burma intended to stay undemocratic came at a trial in
early January. An army major and a foreign ministry official were
sentenced to death for revealing so-called ''state secrets''. They had
allegedly passed photos and information to Burmese in exile about
relations with North Korea, including a tunnel network being constructed
with the help of Pyongyang. Whether the secrets were really secrets is
questionable, since photos of the tunnels were published on the internet.
Clearly, the trial of Major Win Naing Kyaw and bureaucrat Thura Kyaw had
two purposes. The first was to intimidate all Burmese into avoiding
contact with foreigners or Burmese dissidents. The second was to make it
clear the military junta will not be questioned, and will never be
accountable.

The case of Kyaw Zaw Lwin was yet another sign of the regime's iron fist.
He was one of the organisers of the 1988 pro-democracy uprising. He was
forced into exile in the US,where he became a citizen. He received a visa
late last year in order to visit his ailing mother _ who is serving a
prison sentence for political crimes. When he arrived at Rangoon airport,
he was immediately arrested on charges of possessing a forged Burmese ID
card, and for failure to declare foreign currency. He has reportedly been
tortured, and confirmed to have been confined in a dog pen.

His treatment recalls the cruelty of the Burmese regime in the case of
Aung San Suu Kyi, the winner of the last election in Burma, 20 years ago.
When her husband was dying, the regime refused to allow her to visit him
on his deathbed. The requests of her own children to visit her have
repeatedly been turned down. She has constantly been tarred and humiliated
for having a foreign husband at all.

And, of course, in its latest campaign to show its power, the regime chose
to pick on Mrs Suu Kyi. Through sheer determination ''The Lady'' has
become a world symbol of peaceful insistence that people must be free and
governments must be accountable. To punish her for these ideals, the
regime has locked her up for most of the past 20 years. Last week, the
government mocked even its own thin veneer of justice.

With a Supreme Court verdict due on the legality of her house arrest, Home
Minister Maj Gen Maung Oo said in effect it really didn't matter. Mrs Suu
Kyi will likely be freed in November, as the ruling generals _ including
Maj Gen Maung Oo _ have already decided.

Conveniently, this decision means that the country's leading proponent of
democracy and its only prominent opposition leader will be confined and
silenced for the new election.

The timing of that vote, by the way, is still a state secret. But whenever
it is, probably late this year, Mrs Suu Kyi will be locked down throughout
the campaign and the vote. With this decision, Burma has forfeited all
right to claim its election is legitimate, let alone democratic.

____________________________________

February 2, New Light of Myanmar
Work hard together for improvement of Myanmar film industry

Films have a great deal of influence on people, especially young people’s
mentality and ethics.

Film production is an industry based on the delicate combination of art
and technology. For development of the film industry, the government is
importing necessary equipment to be used in the film industry.

It is necessary to try to produce high quality films and videos. For this,
emergence of new generation technicians who are wellversed in production
of films and videos is essential.

In striving for development of Myanmar film industry, it is required to
expand the market at home and abroad. For Myanmar films to be able to
compete with foreign films, efforts will have to be made to reach
international standards in all stages of the production of films. Only
then will Myanmar films improve.

In portraying our country and people, it is necessary to reflect them in
such a way that dignity of the nation and the people come to be admired
and respected by others.

Improvement of Myanmar film industry depends not on any individual but on
unity, understanding, diligence, perseverance and cooperation of all those
in the film world such as performers, directors, script writers, editors,
photographers and others.

If all those in the Myanmar film world work hard together for production
of good Myanmar films of international standards, Myanmar films will
certainly be able to penetrate the international film market.

____________________________________
PRESS RELEASE

February 2, Karen Women Organization
Emergency appeal to the Royal Thai Government not to forcibly repatriate
Karen refugees back to heavily land-mined zone

The Karen Women Organization is urgently appealing to the Royal Thai
Government not to forcibly repatriate over 3,000 Karen refugees staying in
Tha Song Yang, Tak Province, back to a heavily landmined war-zone in
Burma. The majority of the refugees are women and children.

This group of refugees have been told by the Thai Army that they must all
be returned to Burma by February 15. The refugees were told that actions
to remove them will begin on February 5th, this week.

They are now living in fear of imminent forced repatriation into an area
which is heavily land-mined, and where active conflict can re-ignite at
any moment.

On January 28, the local Authority Thai Army and his men forced 50
refugees from this group back across the border between 9 to 11 am to
start cleaning up their homes in the village of Ler Per Her in preparation
for their return. This included 20 women and girls, some under 16 years of
age.

However, KWO would like to state clearly that this area is not safe at all
and refugees groups are not willing to return at this point in time. In
recent months, five refugees from the area have been either injured or
killed by landmines when slipping back into Burma to look after livestock
they left behind. This included a 13-year-old boy whose leg was blown off
in August last year, and a woman who was 8 months pregnant had her foot
blown apart on January 18, 2010.

Blooming Night Zan, Joint Secretary 1 of KWO said, "This evidence of
people stepping on the landmines is a sure sign that the situation is
still very dangerous. Sending refugees back against their will into such a
dangerous situation violates the international law of non-refoulement.
Although the Thai government is not a signatory of the Refugee Convention,
the KWO is very grateful to His Majesty the Thai King, and the Thai
government, for a long history of kindness to refugees. We appeal to the
Thai authorities now to show your humanitarian kindness again."

The Karen refugees fled from fighting in the Ler Per Her area in Karen
State, Burma, in June 2009. The refugees were granted temporary refuge in
three locations, Mae U Su, Mae Salit and Nong Bua, but have not yet been
allowed to move to Mae La refugee camp in Tak Province. Since their
arrival, local Thai authorities have repeatedly pressured the refugees to
return home despite evidence that the area is still very dangerous.

The Karen Women Organization is gravely concerned at the planned forced
repatriation of these
refugees into such a dangerous area and we urgently appeal to the Royal
Thai Government to halt the repatriation and continue to provide these
refugees with protection on Thai soil.

Contact Person:
Blooming Night Zan: 089 269 6272
Karen Women Organization
P.O. 19, Mae Sariang, Mae Hong Son, 58110, Thailand,
Tel: 66-53-681 084 Fax: 66-53-621410, Email: kwocentral at tttmaxnet.com
Website: www.karenwomen.org