BurmaNet News, March 30, 2010

[Editor]

March 30, 2010, Issue #3928

QUOTE OF THE DAY
“I hope the international community will stand with us. The governments of
the world should declare that they reject the regime's election and
prearranged outcome, and pressure the regime to make substantive and
positive change for Burma, beginning with the immediate release of all
political prisoners, including Aung San Suu Kyi, and the cessation of the
regime's military campaign against ethnic minorities. The regime should
negotiate with Burma's democracy forces, led by Aung San Suu Kyi, and
ethnic representatives for a peaceful solution toward national
reconciliation and true democracy.” – U Win Tin, member of the Central
Executive Committee and co-founder of Burma's National League for
Democracy


INSIDE BURMA
AP: Mixed reaction to Myanmar opposition party boycott
Irrawaddy: Rohingya to form political party, contest elections
Irrawaddy: Indonesian FM visits Burma

ON THE BORDER
AFP: Strong earthquake hits off Myanmar: US seismologists

INTERNATIONAL
AFP: Australia says slim hopes of fair Myanmar vote
The Independent (UK): Gordon Brown laments 'unfair' Burmese election
Sydney Morning Herald: China urges Burma to free political prisoners

OPINION / OTHER
Washington Post: Decision time in Burma for democracy's advocates – U Win Tin
Wall Street Journal: Calling Burma's bluff
DPA: Myanmar's election run-up gives scant hope for change – Peter Janssen

PRESS RELEASE
France Diplomatie: Visit to Burma and Thailand by human rights ambassador
François Zimeray (from March 28 to April 2, 2010)




____________________________________
INSIDE BURMA

March 30, Associated Press
Mixed reaction to Myanmar opposition party boycott

Yangon, Myanmar – Many Myanmar residents Tuesday greeted a decision by the
party of democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi to boycott elections with rousing
approval while others called it a blunder leaving voters with little
option in the military-organized balloting.

In a bold gamble, the National League for Democracy on Monday decided to
opt out of the country's first election in two decades, following the lead
of the detained Nobel Prize laureate who had earlier denounced the laws
guiding the election as undemocratic.

The decision, approved by an unanimous vote of the 113 executive members,
spotlights the question of the polls' credibility. The NLD won the most
parliamentary seats in the last election in 1990, whose results the
military refused to honor.

"It is devastating that the NLD has chosen to boycott the election. Who
should I vote for when the election comes?" said a 46-year-old university
teacher Myint Myint Thein.

Some Myanmar experts echoed such opinion.

"The NLD will now disappear from history and the (ruling military council)
will proceed as intended," said Robert Taylor, an author and Myanmar
scholar.

But others approved of the decision.

"(Suu Kyi) is our icon and our leader and she is the only person who can
reflect the feelings of the public. We are with her and we support her
decision," said a 55-year-old nurse, Khin Zaw.

The NLD earlier denounced the election laws, noting their provisions would
bar Suu Kyi from participating, or even being a member of the party she
helped found 22 years ago in the wake of a failed popular uprising against
military rule.

"We will continue to pursue, through peaceful means, democracy and human
rights with support, understanding and assistance from the people, ethnic
nationalities and democratic forces," said party vice chairman Tin Oo.

Although the boycott will probably mean the end of the NLD since parties
who fail to register for the election are to be dissolved, the boycott
could also undermine the junta's claims that the election represents a
step forward in its "roadmap for democracy."

"The majority of the people will follow the decision because of their deep
respect for (Suu Kyi), and the legitimacy and credibility of the elections
will be thoroughly undermined," said Thakin Chan Tun, a retired ambassador
and veteran politician.

The election date has yet to be announced, and the lineup of the
contesting parties is still unclear. But it appears the military will
field a party against a number of small ones, some of them pro-military.

"I think the NLD has made a major blunder by not contesting in the
election. We are all set to vote for NLD candidates and now we are left
without any choice," said Mie Mie, a jewelry shop owner.

Cho Cho Kyaw Nyein, general-secretary of the recently formed Democratic
Party, said the best way to serve the people and country was to get as
many opposition seats as possible in the new parliament.

Earlier, Win Tin, a veteran party member who , described Monday's decision
as a "life-or-death issue." While saying that if the party did not
register it would be "without legs and limbs," he argued that NLD members
would maintain their democratic ideals and thus carry the movement
forward.

The reaction of the international community, which has already expressed
doubt over the fairness of the polls, could be crucial in determining
whether the election will proceed smoothly. The junta hopes holding the
vote will ease pressure for political reforms and accommodation with the
country's pro-democracy movement.

At the same time, the party risks being further marginalized. It has been
the focal point for opposition to military rule, even though it has faced
fierce repression. If it loses its status as a legal party, it may face
tighter restrictions.

U.S. State Department spokesman P.J. Crowley told reporters that U.S.
officials "understand and respect" the NLD decision. "This is a reflection
of the unwillingness of the government in Burma to take what we thought
were the necessary steps to open up the political process and to engage in
serious dialogue," Crowley said.

____________________________________

March 30, Irrawaddy
Rohingya to form political party, contest elections – Saw Yan Naing

The Rohingya, the Muslim minority living primarily in Burma's western
Arakan State, will  form a political party and contest the upcoming
elections although most Rohingya are not currently Burmese citizens,
according to sources close to prominent members of the Rohingya community.

“They [the Rohingyas] will form a party. They contacted us so we could
help each other,” said Ohn Lwin, the leader of a separate party called the
National Political Alliance.  Ohn Lwin said the leader of the new Rohingya
party will be Ohn Tin, a Rohingya living in Rangoon.

The new Rohingya party has not yet registered nor chosen a name. “They
won't put the word 'Rohingya' in the name of their party because the
current regime does not recognize them as an official ethnic group,” said
Ohn Lwin.  Some sources said the new Rohingya party would be named the
“Myanmar Bengalis.”

Despite the fact that a vast majority of the Rohingyas in Burma live in
Arakan State, according to Ohn Lwin, the new Rohingya party plans to
contest nationally in constituencies such as: Sittwe, Buthidaung, Maungdaw
and Rathedaung in Arakan State;  Kyaukse, Meiktila and  Yamethin in
Mandalay Division; Mingalar Taung Nyunt, Thingangyun and Tamwe in Rangoon
Division; and Moulmein in Mon State.

Although it would appear difficult for the primarily non-citizen Rohingya
community to form a viable political party, the Burmese military regime,
who in the past have ruthlessly oppressed the Rohingya, appear to be
aiding the process and solving the citizenship problem, at least for
purposes of the election.

According to the new electoral law, people holding a temporary
identification card may vote if they are 18  or older.

In early February, local immigration officials in Arakan State reportedly
issued temporary ID cards to adult Rohingyas with the help of the
regime-backed Union Solidarity and Development Association (USDA) and
National Unity Party (NUP) to make them eligible to cast  ballots in the
upcoming election.  According to sources, each Rohingya had to pay 3,500
kyat (US $3.50) for the temporary ID cards and approximately 60 percent of
the Rohingya living in Arakan State now have cards.

Sources also told The Irrawaddy that in mid-March, Brig-Gen Phone Swe,
deputy minister for home affairs, joined some Rohingya businessmen on a
one week campaign trip to Rohingya regions in Arakan State such as
Buthidaung and Maungdaw.

So although it remains to be seen what direction the new Rohingya party
will choose,  observers say the regime appears to be enlisting the
Rohingya on its own behalf.

In fact, Aung Zaw Win and Aung Naing, two Rohingya businessmen who live in
Rangoon, will reportedly contest the elections as a separate proxy party
of the Burmese regime.  They have already campaigned together with
pro-junta groups such as the USDA and NUP, according to sources close to
the Rohingya community.

The Rohingya are the second largest ethnic group in Arakan State, after
the Rakhine. Rohingya are in the majority in Maungdaw, Buthidaung and
Rathedaung townships, in the northern part of the state. They comprise
nearly 30 percent of the state's population of 2.75 million people.

The Rohingya face harsh treatment by Burmese authorities. They are
prohibited from traveling outside Arakan State and are further
marginalized by other discriminatory laws. Normally, Rohingya people are
not recognized as citizens of Burma even though many were born there and
have lived in northwestern Arakan State all their lives.

Despite this historical oppression, from the beginning of the Burmese
state, in 1948, the government has brought the Rohingya into the fold when
it served its purposes.

The Rohingya people were first recognized by U Nu, Burma's first prime
minister.

U Nu and his colleague, Ba Swe, of the Anti-Fascist People's Freedom
League (AFPFL), publicly stated in their campaign speeches that the
“Bengali Muslims” were recognized among Burma’s ethnic races under the
name of “Rohingya.”   Then some AFPFL leaders in the area  granted instant
citizenship to the new influx of Bengalis to allow them to cast votes for
their party.

This trend of allowing Rohingyas to vote has continued under the current
military regime, despite the fact that the regime officially declared the
Rohingya stateless in 1982.

In the 1990 general election, Rohingya were allowed to vote and four
Rohingya won  constituencies in northern Arakan State such as Buthidaung
and Maungdaw.  In 2008, the Rohingya were allowed to vote in the
referendum using the same type of temporary ID cards currently being
issued.

____________________________________

March 30, Irrawaddy
Indonesian FM visits Burma – Wai Moe

Indonesian Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa is expected to meet with
Burmese generals this week, in what will be the junta’s first meeting with
a top diplomat from Southeast Asia since its Political Party Registration
Law was announced in early March.

Ahead of Natalegawa’s visit, which began on Tuesday, the New York-based
Human Rights Watch urged on Sunday that as leading Asean member, Indonesia
should continue its principled stand on the human rights situation in
Burma.

Indonesian Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa talks to journalist in
Jakarta,Indonesia, on March 15. (Photo: AP)
Natalegawa said on Friday: “We would like to know about the practical
implications of the recently issued electoral laws to determine whether
its substance meets the Myanmar [Burma] government's commitment to hold a
democratic, free and multi-party election.”

Burmese authorities did not report on Natalegawa’s visit in
state-run-newspapers. But, the media reported on Vietnamese Prime Minister
Nguyen Tan Dung’s visit over the weekend.

At Burmese Prime Minister Gen Thein Sein’s invitation, Nguyen Tan Dung
will pay a “working visit” to the country in the near future, according
The New Light of Myanmar.

Both the Indonesian minister and the Vietnamese prime minister visits come
a few days ahead of the 16th Summit of the Association of Southeast Asian
Nations (Asean) in Hanoi on April 8-9.

Vietnam is the 2010 chair of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations
(Asean). Vietnam’s motto for its chairmanship is “Towards the Asean
Community: from Vision to Action.”

Human rights activists in Southeast Asia have called for Asean to take a
stronger stand on Burma's electoral laws and the upcoming election, which
has been widely criticized as undemocratic. Indonesia has been one of the
strongest critics of the Burmese regime.

“If Indonesia is not successful in this mission, then Asean should prepare
to reject the election,” said Debbie Stothard, the coordinator of the
Alternative Asean Network.

Until now, Asean has not commented on Burma’s electoral laws. Indonesia
and the Philippines have called for more fairness and inclusiveness in the
political process.

Stothard said that the current political situation in Burma challenges the
credibility of Asean, Vietnam's chairmanship, and the upcoming Asean
summit.

“They [Asean] have to have some guarantees. The situation is going to
change. If there is no guarantee and no immediate action, this is a crisis
for Vietnam, because it's the Asean chair and Asean has to reject the
situation,” she said.

In spite of being roundly criticized as authorizing an undemocratic and
non-inclusive election, the Burmese junta has rejected all calls for a
free and fair election.

“It seems that the international community will watch with undisguised
anguish as the junta steers the nation down this dead-end democracy, but
it will not actually do anything significant,” said Jeff Kingston, a Burma
expert at Temple University’s Japan campus.

“The world is in a wait-and-see mode, creating a perfect situation for the
junta to steal the elections and let the facts on the ground accumulate
that will become an excuse for not pursuing real reforms,” he said.

____________________________________
ON THE BORDER

March 30, Agence France Presse
Strong earthquake hits off Myanmar: US seismologists

Dhaka – A strong, 6.4-magnitude earthquake struck in the Andaman Sea off
Myanmar at 10:24 pm (1654 GMT) Tuesday, the US Geological Survey (USGS)
said. No destructive tsunami was expected.

The USGS placed the epicentre of the quake at a depth of 45.4 kilometres
(28.2 miles) and at a point 217 kilometres (135 miles) north of the island
of Port Blair in the Andaman Sea.

The epicentre was also 406 kilometres (252 miles) southwest of Pathein and
500 kilometres (310 miles) southwest of Yangon, both in Mynmar.

A bulletin issued by the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center to government
agencies said that the quake posed no "destructive widespread tsunami"
threat.

____________________________________
INTERNATIONAL

March 30, Agence France Presse
Australia says slim hopes of fair Myanmar vote

Sydney – Australia said Tuesday that elections in Myanmar would only be
fair if Aung San Suu Kyi's opposition party can take part, and said
meaningful change in the military-run state was now doubtful.

The National League for Democracy has refused to register for the vote
expected later this year, after the military junta introduced a new
election law that would have forced it to oust its detained leader.

"I don't believe that any election without the National League for
Democracy can be a full, free and fair election," Australian Foreign
Minister Stephen Smith told ABC Radio.

Smith said the new election law made it difficult, if not impossible, for
the NLD to take part in the election with Nobel Peace laureate Suu Kyi as
its leader.

"Unless something fundamental or substantial changes, regrettably I think
it does put paid to what slim prospects we had, hopeful prospects we had
earlier this year that we might make some progress on the democracy front
in Burma (Myanmar)," Smith said.

Under the controversial legislation, the NLD could only have taken part in
the elections if it had parted ways with Suu Kyi, because she is serving a
prison term.

But by not registering, the party now faces dissolution under the
legislation.

The democracy leader, who has been locked up for 14 of the past 20 years,
had already told the party she was opposed to its participation in the
much-criticised vote.

____________________________________

March 30, The Independent (UK)
Gordon Brown laments 'unfair' Burmese election – Andrew Woodcock

There is no prospect of Burma's first elections in two decades being
"free, fair or inclusive", Downing Street said today.

Prime Minister Gordon Brown said that the military regime which has ruled
the south-east Asian state for almost half a century had "squandered" the
opportunity for national reconciliation offered by the upcoming poll.

He called for pro-democracy campaigner Aung San Suu Kyi - who has been
banned from standing in the election - to be allowed to take her place in
the Burmese political system.

The Nobel laureate's National League for Democracy, which won the last
elections in 1990 but was blocked from taking power, has announced that it
will boycott this year's vote, for which a date has yet to be set.

The decision was taken after this month's enactment of new election laws
which bar Dr Suu Kyi and other convicted political prisoners from standing
in the poll.

The NLD's pullout has raised further questions over the credibility of the
military-organised election, part of a "roadmap for democracy" offered by
the Burmese junta which critics say will only strengthen their grip on
power.

Suu Kyi, who has been under house arrest for 14 of the 20 years since she
was elected Prime Minister, recommended a boycott, denouncing the laws
governing the poll as undemocratic.

Mr Brown today said: "Sadly, the Burmese regime has squandered the
opportunity for national reconciliation.

"Aung San Suu Kyi must be allowed to take her rightful place at the heart
of Burmese politics."

Mr Brown's spokesman added: "Regrettably, recent announcements mean there
is no prospect of (the elections) being free, fair or inclusive."

The NLD's boycott has sparked speculation that Burmese voters may express
their frustration at the repressive government of their country by staying
away from the the polls.

But it also means that the League will fall foul of new laws which state
that parties failing to register for the vote must be dissolved.

____________________________________

March 27, Sydney Morning Herald
China urges Burma to free political prisoners – Bill Varner

New York: China has joined Australia and the US in telling Burma's
military junta to free all political prisoners, including Aung San Suu
Kyi, and allow them to participate in upcoming elections, the United
Nations Secretary-General, Ban Ki-moon, said.

''The government must create conditions that give all stakeholders the
opportunity to participate freely in elections,'' Mr Ban said. ''This
includes the release of all political prisoners.''

The call came at a meeting of the Group of Friends of Burma on Thursday
convened by Mr Ban to review the new electoral laws that disqualify Suu
Kyi before the first national polls in 20 years.

The group comprises Australia, Britain, China, the European Union, France,
India, Indonesia, Japan, Norway, Russia, Singapore, South Korea, Thailand,
the United States and Vietnam.

Mr Ban said the group was ''disappointed'' with the junta's lack of
progress towards democratic elections, including electoral laws that ''do
not fully measure up to what is needed for an inclusive political
process''.

Further pressure was put on the junta when Britain's representative on the
Security Council, Sir Mark Lyall Grant, said Britain would back moves to
refer Burma's military leaders to the International Criminal Court for
investigation into war crimes and crimes against humanity.

He said Britain supported a recommendation by the UN special rapporteur on
human rights in Burma that the court open a war crimes investigation.

However Sir Mark said the Security Council's five permanent members were
''not sufficiently unanimous'' in their views to allow an ICC referral to
happen immediately.

The junta announced laws on March 9 that bar participation by Suu Kyi and
other political prisoners, a spokesman for her National League for
Democracy said. The regulations prohibit them from standing for office and
give political parties 60 days to register or face dissolution.

Excluding Suu Kyi and about 2100 other political prisoners from the
election may set back attempts by the US President, Barack Obama, to
engage with Burma's military, which has ruled since 1962.

The election laws say that political parties must pledge to uphold a
constitution approved in a 2008 referendum in which voters were not
allowed to cast ballots in secret.

The constitution, approved by 92 per cent of voters, includes a clause
effectively barring Suu Kyi from holding office.

China's acquiescence in Mr Ban's statement represented backing for
stronger international engagement than its UN ambassador expressed on
Thursday when he was asked about possible Security Council action. China
has resisted Security Council involvement in Burma.

''A general election, held in any country, is a matter of a sovereign
state,'' the Chinese ambassador, Li Baodong, said. ''That should be
respected.''

Mr Li also said it was ''very important for the international community
and the UN to help Burma to promote a constructive, healthy environment''
for elections.

Bloomberg, Guardian News & Media, Agence France-Presse

____________________________________
OPINION / OTHER

March 30, Washington Post
Decision time in Burma for democracy's advocates – U Win Tin

Burma's military regime has forced our party, the National League for
Democracy, to make a tough decision on whether we will continue to operate
legally.

The ruling generals, known as the State Peace and Development Council
(SPDC), issued a set of unjust electoral laws this month that threatened
to abolish our party if we did not re-register at the election commission
within 60 days.

We know the cruel nature of the regime. We did not expect the electoral
laws it established would offer a semblance of fairness. But we also did
not expect that the regime would use its laws to remove our leader, Daw
Aung San Suu Kyi, and all political prisoners from the political process.
Once again the regime has defied the will of the people of Burma and the
international community by disregarding their call for transparent, free
and fair elections that include all parties.

The Political Party Registration Law bans all political prisoners from
participating in elections by voting and contesting, forming a political
party, or joining a party. Parties must make sure that political prisoners
are not included in their membership and must pledge in writing that they
will obey and protect the country's constitution and abide by its election
laws. They are also required to participate in the election. Failure to
comply with these restrictions will lead to abolishment of the party.

For me, the decision was simple: No. We cannot expel Aung San Suu Kyi and
others who are or have been imprisoned under this corrupt and unfair legal
system. Without them, our party would be nothing. They are in prison
because of their belief in democracy and the rule of law. Their immediate
release and participation in Burma's political process are necessary for a
credible democratic process.

We do not accept the regime's unilaterally drafted constitution, designed
to legalize permanent military dictatorship. The referendum to ratify this
constitution was conducted on the heels of Cyclone Nargis in 2008; it was
"approved" by force and fraud. Our objective is to reject this sham
constitution and create one that will guarantee democracy, human rights,
justice, the rule of law and equality among all ethnic nationalities
through an all-inclusive, genuine political dialogue. We cannot pledge to
obey the sham constitution. True democracy will not come from this
process.

It is not easy to make such a decision for an organization. Aung San Suu
Kyi said she would "not even think" of registering her party for the
polls. Yet as a leader who believes in democracy, she stressed that she
would let the party decide for itself. On Monday, all of my colleagues
agreed to confront these injustices together.

Some believe that the continued legal status of our party is more
important. If our party is not legal, the thinking goes, how can we work
for the people of Burma? The United Nations and some countries have asked
the regime to change these unfair laws and to allow Aung San Suu Kyi and
all political prisoners to participate in the election. Secretary General
Ban Ki-moon held a meeting of his "Group of Friends on Myanmar" to discuss
the situation in Burma. We have also heard that the U.S. government is
"closely considering" the recent report and recommendations made by U.N.
Special Rapporteur Tomás Ojea Quintana, including his suggestion that the
United Nations establish a "commission of inquiry" to investigate war
crimes and crimes against humanity in our country. This latent support
from international voices may not be enough. My colleagues may have
justifiable concerns that international voices and statements are not
complemented by effective measures to change Burma's political crisis.

Our party was born out of the 1988 popular democracy uprising with the
noble intention to carry out the unfinished work of those who sacrificed
their lives for freedom, justice and democracy.

We won a landslide victory in the 1990 election and have been the leader
of Burma's democracy movement for more than two decades. But because we
refuse to bow to these unjust election "laws," our party will be abolished
by the regime soon. Still, the NLD will not disappear. We will be among
the people, with the people. We will continue to fight for democracy,
human rights and equality among all ethnic nationalities, by peaceful
means.

I hope the international community will stand with us. The governments of
the world should declare that they reject the regime's election and
prearranged outcome, and pressure the regime to make substantive and
positive change for Burma, beginning with the immediate release of all
political prisoners, including Aung San Suu Kyi, and the cessation of the
regime's military campaign against ethnic minorities. The regime should
negotiate with Burma's democracy forces, led by Aung San Suu Kyi, and
ethnic representatives for a peaceful solution toward national
reconciliation and true democracy.

U Win Tin is a member of the Central Executive Committee and a founder of
Burma's National League for Democracy party. He was a political prisoner
from 1989 to 2008.

____________________________________

March 30, Wall Street Journal
Calling Burma's bluff

Burma's generals are embracing democracy this year—"discipline-flourishing
democracy," as they like to put it—and some of the junta's friends are
buying in to the program. "There is a new beginning after the elections,"
said Association of Southeast Asian Nations Secretary General Surin
Pitsawan last month, calling them "a step forward."

But not Aung San Suu Kyi, the leader of the opposition party that won
Burma's last elections in 1990. At her bidding, Ms. Suu Kyi's party
announced Monday that it would not contest the elections scheduled for
this year, calling them unjust.

It's not hard to see why. Under the terms of the junta's 2008
constitution, nation-wide elections will elect a parliament in which 25%
of the seats are reserved for the military, and constitutional changes
require more than 75% approval. The political parties contesting the
election will mostly be controlled by the generals or their friends. Any
political party with members in jail is automatically disqualified. Given
Burma's record of imprisoning dissidents, that makes political
participation for a legitimate opposition basically impossible. (Right now
429 members of Ms. Suu Kyi's party are imprisoned.)

Despite the stacked deck, the regime has taken no chances. The government
in Naypyidaw appointed an election commission of loyal bureaucrats, who
have the power to approve or reject political parties that seek to contest
the vote. The junta has also intensified military campaigns against
secessionist ethnic minorities and jailed ever more dissidents.

Under those circumstances, Ms. Suu Kyi's opposition will not change the
election outcome, but the symbolism still matters. She remains the
country's most popular political figure, though she has been under house
arrest for 14 of the last 20 years, and largely cut off from contact with
the outside world.

Just as importantly, her move throws down the gauntlet for Burma's
friends—countries like India, Thailand and Singapore—who typically swallow
the generals' line. It also stands as a challenge to the Obama
administration, which has pressed for more engagement with the junta but
described the recent election laws as a "setback."

The point of the election charade, as the junta sees it, may be to gain
international acclaim or be seen as less of a pariah. But Ms. Suu Kyi's
gambit makes it harder for the generals to claim their democracy
represents reconciliation—and for free nations to turn a blind eye.

____________________________________

March 30, Deutsche Presse-Agentur
Myanmar's election run-up gives scant hope for change – Peter Janssen

Yangon – The withdrawal of the National League for Democracy (NLD)
opposition party from an election planned this year has added to the
perception that the polls would bring no change to Myanmar's political
landscape, other than in the clothing of the generals who run the country.

Myanmar, which has been under military dictatorships since 1962, last held
an election in 1990. Those polls were won handsomely by the NLD, which
secured 85 per cent of the parliamentary seats and more than 60 per cent
of the popular vote against more than 200 contesting parties.

The landslide victory was attributed largely to the tremendous popularity
of NLD leader Aung San Suu Kyi, daughter of Myanmar independence hero Aung
San and a courageous critic of the military establishment.

Myanmar's ruling junta has had two decades to make sure the NLD would not
win again.

Over that period, it has blocked the NLD from power and jailed hundreds of
elected NLD members of parliament, including Suu Kyi, who has spent 14 of
the past 21 years under house arrest. It also drafted a pro-military
constitution that was endorsed by a 2008 referendum, which was criticized
internationally as a sham. Most recently, it passed election laws that
appeared designed to destroy the NLD as a political force.

The newly enacted Party Registration Law, for instance, specified that
people currently serving prison terms are not allowed to be members of
political parties. That clause would effectively force the NLD to expel
its leader if it wishes to contest the polls because Suu Kyi is now
serving her latest sentence, an 18-month house detention term, which is
expected to expire in November.

On Monday, the NLD executive committee decided not to register to contest
the polls, which means the party would soon cease to exist as a legal
entity.

"If we stand for elections without Aung San Suu Kyi, we will not get any
votes, so the NLD would go down the drain anyway," NLD deputy leader Tin
Oo told the German Press Agency dpa.

Myanmar's junta chief, Senior General Than Shwe, was no doubt pleased to
have the NLD out of the way on his seven-step road map to
"discipline-flourishing" democracy.

The regime was expected to transform its Union Solidarity and Development
Association, a pro-junta mass movement that claims to have 26 million
members out of Myanmar's population of 57 million, into a political party
soon.

With the NLD out of the picture, there are few other serious contenders
against a handful of pro-junta parties in this year's election, a date for
which has not yet been set.

"Most of the new parties seem to have rather old leaders and not many
members," said one Western diplomat who asked to remain anonymous. "It's
difficult to imagine them waging an effective election campaign."

One such party, the soon-to-be-registered Union Democratic Alliance, is
led by 88-year-old Shwe Ohn, an ethnic Shan whose Democratic Party for the
Shan State Nationalities contested and lost the 1990 polls.

Shwe Ohn is realistic about his prospects this time round.

"The military have the power, they have the money and they have been
mobilizing for the election for more than a year now," Shwe Ohn said.
Despite the odds and his advanced age, Shwe Ohn said he is determined to
join the fray again.

"Anything can happen if you live long enough," he said.

One worry for the military this election season remained the ethnic
minority groups, several of whom have refused to comply with the junta's
demand to transform their armies into border forces under the army's
control before the polls.

In August, after the Kokang group refused to change its small army into a
border force, the Myanmar military invaded its territory, sending 40,000
refugees fleeing into neighbouring China.

But the military might have second thoughts about invading territory under
the control of the Wa, which claims an army of 20,000. But the lack of a
solution was not expected to derail the election.

"The military could decide to label these areas security threats, so there
will be no election held there," one diplomat said. "The pro-junta parties
are not likely to do well in these regions anyway."

Given the non-participation of the NLD and probable non-participation of
many ethnic minority parties, voter boycotts of the election were
expected.

This too might serve the junta well, judging by its deft handling of the
May 2008 national referendum on the military-drafted constitution.

Ninety-eight per cent of the voters supposedly approved the highly
unpopular charter, a dubious result and a warning about the likely
freeness and fairness of the 2010 polls.

"They will exchange their military uniforms for politicians' suits," Tin
Oo predicted.

____________________________________
PRESS RELEASE

March 30, France Diplomatie
Visit to Burma and Thailand by human rights ambassador François Zimeray
(from March 28 to April 2, 2010)

At Bernard Kouchner’s request, human rights ambassador François Zimeray
will be visiting Burma and Thailand from March 28 to April 2.

In Burma, he will hold several meetings with officials and will review the
human rights situation with various political figures. He will emphasize
France’s deep attachment to the respect for fundamental rights,
particularly the freedom of conscience and expression. He will also meet
with representatives of civil society, NGOs and UN agencies with a
presence in Rangoon.

In Thailand, Mr. Zimeray’s mission will focus on the sometimes tragic fate
of migrants. He will travel to fishing villages that are the site of
large-scale trafficking in child slaves. Coastguards have found several
hundred bodies of children recruited by the fishing network.

He will then address a regional seminar co-hosted by the Contemporary
Southeast Asia Research Institute (IRASEC) and Chulalongkorn University on
human trafficking in Southeast Asia entitled “From Prevention to Adapted
Re-integration of Trafficked Persons.”