BurmaNet News, May 5, 2010

[Editor]

May 5, 2010, Issue #3955

INSIDE BURMA
KNG: Two bombs explode in Myitkyina
Irrawaddy: Tight censorship on reporting USDP
Irrawaddy: DKBA unlikely to reunite with KNLA
SHAN: Shan party allowed to register for elections
Narinjara News: Security increased in Arakan
Mizzima News: Defence ministry Chin tour urges ‘successful polls’
Mizzima News: ILO, junta print anti-forced-labour leaflets

ON THE BORDER
DVB: Thailand detains 100 Mon migrants
Khonumthung News: Many Burmese involved in criminal activities: CM
Reuters: Chinese rescuers in Myanmar after mine accident

INTERNATIONAL
AFP: US wary of Burma reshuffle
AFP: Top US Senator pushes Myanmar sanctions

OPINION / OTHER
Irrawaddy: After the NLD has gone - Aung Naing Oo

____________________________________
INSIDE BURMA

May 5, Kachin News Group
Two bombs explode in Myitkyina

Two bombs exploded in Myitkyina, the capital of Burma’s northern Kachin
State today at around 11 a.m. local time, but there was no casualty or
damage, reports the Kachin News Group reporter in the capital.

The bomb blasts occurred in the compound of the arch-bus car station in
N-Jang Kawng quarter (Thidar in Burmese) opposite Peace sport stadium,
near the police quarter downtown. However, there was casualty or damages,
he said.

The bombs did not seem to powerful. The Burmese military authorities are
investigating the blasts.

The bomb explosions today in Kachin’s capital come in the wake of the
serial explosions in the Irrawaddy Myitsone dam site, 27 miles north of
Myitkyina over a couple of weeks ago, which killed four Chinese workers
and injured 12.

No one has claimed responsibility for the Myitsone blasts so far. However
local people believe the ruling Burmese junta triggered the blasts.

KNG is keeping track of the developments and will report detailed stories.

____________________________________

May 5, Irrawaddy
Tight censorship on reporting USDP - Wai Moe

Burma’s censorship board is keeping a tight control on reporting about the
junta’s Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) led by Prime
Minister Thein Sein in private journals.

Journalists in Rangoon said the censorship board, the Press Scrutiny and
Registration Division under the Ministry of Information, does not allow
any questioning on the controversial formation of Thein Sein’s USDP, which
was formed directly from the state mass organization, the Union Solidarity
and Development Association (USDA).

Prime Minister Thein Sein with two other USDP leaders who are government
officials inspecting a cement plant near Mandalay
(Photo: AP)
“Any critical questions on the formation of the USDP in journals have been
removed by the censorship board,” said an editor with a Rangoon journal
who requested anonymity, “But all positive writing is allowed.”

“Indirect mention or quotes in journals that contrast the formation of the
USDP under Prime Minster Thein Sein with the election law have been taken
out,” he said, adding that journals had published news related to the USDP
on both front and inside pages this week.

However, journalists in Rangoon said reporting that the USDP is the prime
minister’s party was not allowed in front page reporting. The censorship
board also removed any comments about the 2008 Constitution clause that
bans government officials’ involvement in political parties.

Thein Sein’s formation of a political party is controversial because
analysts say he broke the junta's own Political Party Registration Law’s
chapter 4 (D) and chapter 7 (D), which bar government officials from
forming political parties and using government property.

Political observers in Rangoon said the junta could practice double
standards regardless, and some government sources argue that Thein Sein
and other ministers are no longer government officials because they have
resigned their military commissions and only play a political role.

Three days before the USDP applied to the Union Election Commission under
Thein Sein’s leadership on April 29, the war office announced his
retirement and that of 22 other military officials.

Despite the controversy over the junta’s USDP, the election commission
approved its application along with nine other parties on Tuesday,
according to an announcement in state-run-newspapers on Wednesday.

“Among the groups that submitted applications to set up political parties,
the UEC [Union Election Commission] passed the following parties to set up
political parties today as they are found to be in accord with Political
Parties Registration Law and Rules,” reported The New Light of Myanmar.

The USDP is expected to contest all constituencies amounting to 75 percent
of the total 1,158 seats of the union parliament as well as parliaments of
states and divisions in Burma in the coming election later this year.

A quarter of Burma’s parliaments will be reserved for military officials
appointed by the commander-in-chief of the armed forces.

Thursday is the deadline for the main opposition National League for
Democracy (NLD) and other remaining parties in the 1990 elections to
prolong their existence by registering their parties with the current
election commission.

The international community and Burmese are waiting to see whether the
junta will crackdown on the opposition following the deadline for the NLD
led by Nobel Laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, which decided to avoid party
registration in late March.

Officials from the Ministry of Information have called local journalists
to a press conference in Naypyidaw on Thursday, which could mainly focus
on recent bombings in Burma including the New Year festival blast in
Rangoon.

The USDP party issue, the fate of the NLD and the junta’s other steps
toward the election may also be on the press conference agenda.

____________________________________

May 5, Irrawaddy
DKBA unlikely to reunite with KNLA - Alex Ellgee

Mae Sot, Thailand—Despite earlier reports that the Democratic Karen
Buddhist Army (DKBA) might reject the Burmese junta's border guard force
(BGF) proposal and reunite with the Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA),
rejection of the BGF proposal is uncertain and reunification with the KNLA
appears unlikely.

The DKBA is a Buddhist militia group that broke away from the Karen
National Union (KNU), which is mostly Christian, and its KNLA military
wing in 1995.

The DKBA is viewed as a proxy army for the Burmese military junta and now
controls most of the Thai-Burmese border area that was previously KNU
territory. It claims to have 6,000 troops, with a planned increase to
9,000, making it Burma's second-largest armed ethnic militia.

The Burmese junta has demanded that all armed ethnic militias join the
BGF, and there are divisions within the DKBA, both at the leadership and
lower levels, about whether to do so.

Col Chit Thu, the commander of DKBA Battalion 999 and the DKBA's most
powerful military commander, is reportedly in favor of joining the BGF.
Saw Lar Pwe, the commander of Battalion 907, is reportedly against
joining.

Also opposed to joining the BGF is U Thuzana, the DKBA's spiritual leader
and the influential abbot of Myaing Gyi Ngu monastery, who has reportedly
persuaded many others to join him in opposition.

The direction the DKBA is leaning seems to change with each passing day.

According to a KNLA source in southern Karen state, the DKBA and KNLA
struck a peace deal last week, implying that the DKBA would reject the BGF
proposal, but since then nothing has changed.

“It appears the DKBA have gone back to their old ways,” the source said.
“It’s very difficult to trust them one-hundred percent when they are still
working for the SPDC [State Peace and Development Council], but we can see
a part of them wants to leave the DKBA.”

Col Ner Dar, son of the late Karen leader Gen Bo Mya, told The Irrawaddy
that there had been a quarrel between the DKBA and the Burmese military,
but he had received reports that the dispute was already settled.

Ner Dar did not believe the DKBA would reunite with the KNLA, “because
they don’t want to, and even if they did it would be difficult.”

An observer, who wished to remain anonymous for security reasons, said:
“While we may see new groups forming within the DKBA, it's unlikely there
will be a reunification with the KNLA. Low level deserters can be
expected, but the business interests of the DKBA leaders will keep them on
the junta's path.”

A DKBA official also told The Irrawaddy that the rumors of fighting
between Burmese troops and DKBA are not true.

“We are always preparing in case of conflict, but currently nothing has
happened. We don't see fighting against Burmese army is the answer. It
will not help Karen people,” he said.

On April 28, a meeting was held by senior DKBA officers, who according to
initial reports decided that the DKBA should join the BGF.

But the Karen Human Rights Group (KHRG) reports receiving conflicting
information from sources within the DKBA, KNLA, Royal Thai Army and
villagers in Pa'an District about what the senior DKBA officers based on
the Thai-Burma border had agreed to, or rejected, in the meeting.

A recent report by the KHRG said that internal DKBA disagreements over the
BGF could increase desertions. Some soldiers and low-ranking officers told
the KHRG they oppose the plan, “while others said they will desert if the
DKBA refuses [to join the BGF] because such a refusal might mean renewed
conflict with the Burmese military.”

But even low-level desertions, for whatever reason, may be problematic for
DKBA soldiers. Deserters face extreme retribution both from the junta and
the DKBA.

According to a KNLA source in southern Karen State, half the DKBA in one
brigade were close to deserting over the BGF proposal, but the junta
reportedly threatened to kill the families of those who.

This was confirmed by a DKBA source, which told The Irrawaddy that DKBA
soldiers have little choice but to continue under the DKBA, even if it
joins the BGF. “Our families are left in SPDC controlled areas. If we
choose to fight against the Burmese government, our wives and children
will be slaughtered,” he said.

A recent report by the Karen Human Rights Group (KHRG) said that DKBA
soldiers from Chit Thu's Battalion 999 crossed into Thailand and burned
three huts in a Thai village in Tha Song Yang District, Tak Province. The
DKBA reportedly believed the villagers were in contact with the KNLA and
were withholding information about four DKBA soldiers who recently
deserted.

The KHRG report gives examples of soldiers being executed following
suspicions of desertion, indicating the difficulties faced by DKBA
deserters.

A former DKBA soldier, called Pah G, who was forcibly recruited at age 13,
recalled in the report how his commanding officer had explicitly stated
that deserters would be executed if recaptured.

"If we couldn't escape successfully, when they recaptured us we would be
killed, because the commander gave an order that if escaping soldiers were
recaptured they would be punished with death," said Pah G.

____________________________________

May 5, Shan Herald Agency for News
Shan party allowed to register for elections - Hseng Khio Fah

The junta runs media the New Light of Myanmar on 3 May reported that the
Shan Nationalities Democratic Party (SNDP) is one of the political parties
that were permitted to be set up by the Union Elections Commission to
contest in the forthcoming general elections.

There are altogether30 political parties that have registered for the
elections, among them 24 have already passed so far. The permission
depends on each party’s policy, according to UEC.

Meanwhile the Union Democratic Alliance Organization (UDAO) that was
formed by the veteran Shan politician Shwe Ohn has yet to know whether its
application is being considered by the UEC or not. It had applied for
registration months before most of the other parties were formed. But
according to CEU, the party applied only on 8 April.

The SNDP was formed in early April and applied for its registration to the
Election Commission on the same day.  Its party Chairman is Sai Ai Pao,
the well to do salt trader from Namkham who has made his home in Rangoon
and its Vice Chairman is Sai Saung Si, former elected representative of
Kyaukme constituency No#2 in 1990.

The party’s aim is to pave the way for the people in Shan State to have
more choices and to represent them in working for their rights and to
protect them. In addition, the party is also to comply with the principles
that were written in the 2008 constitution, according to its Chairman.

“We are going to contest peacefully in accordance with the constitution.
We don’t oppose any party and organizations because we regard all as
friends, not enemy,” Sai Ai Pao told SHAN in April.

The party plans to contest in 40 out of 55 townships in Shan State, and 
other than these, it is going to contest in other states and divisions:
Kachin and Karenni states and Rangoon, Mandalay, Pegu and Sagaing
divisions where most Shan residents are living as well. In Burma, Shan has
the second biggest population after the Burman.

The party is already known by the local people in Shan State North as Kyar
Phyu Party (White Tiger Party).

Apart from the SNDP, another party called Northern Shan State Progressive
Party (Northern-SSPP) led by Chan Khaw, is also expected to be contesting
in Shan State North. It applied for its registration on 23 April. Its
headquarters is based in Lashio, the capital town of the Shan State North.
But it is yet to be known whether its application will be approved or not.

At present, the SNDP has reportedly selected two candidates for Muse and
one for Namkham townships, northern Shan State to compete in the area. The
two from Muse are Sai Mawk Kham Soi (aka) Sai Phoe Aung and Sai Phoe Myat,
both former chairmen of Muse Shan Literature and Culture Association
(Muse-SLCA).  The candidate in Namkham is Sai Ohn Kyaw, a veterinary
surgeon, according to local residents in Muse.  “They have yet to start
their campaigns.”

According to reports from the junta, in Shan State East’s Pongpakhem
subtownship of Mongton Township, opposite Chiangmai, alone will have 23
polling booths, according to sources from the Thai-Burma border.

Security service for each polling station will be three tiered: the first
by the Elections Commission and Township Peace and Development Council
(TPDC), the second by the police, Red Cross and fire brigades and the last
by militia units and the Burma Army.

At the same time, local businessmen are also being urged by the junta to
become members of its Union Solidarity Development Party (USDP).

It had also in April instructed both regional and divisional level
commands to carry out census and compile lists of eligible voters within
their respective areas, said a source close to the junta officials on the
Thai border.

____________________________________

May 5, Narinjara News
Security increased in Arakan

Sittwe: Many additional riot police have been deployed at key places in
Sittwe, the capital of Arakan State, and along the Sittwe-Rangoon highway
to beef up existing security and prevent possible bomb attacks in the
state, report townspeople and travelers.

A businessman from Mizan Ward said, "The authority has beefed up security
in Sittwe with many additional riot police last Sunday. Lawkar Nadar
Pagoda, Bura Gyi Temple, Ottama Garden, and the Rangoon-Sittwe bus station
have new deployments of many riot police."

After the new riot police deployments in Sittwe, townspeople have been
avoiding crowded places such as markets and festivals due to fear of a
possible bomb attack in the city.

Security along the Sittwe-Rangoon highway has also been beefed up with
additional army and police forces.

"All travelers have to exit the buses whenever they reach army checkpoints
and bridges along the Sittwe-Rangoon highway. All travelers have to walk
by foot across all bridges and checkpoints. The authority is using this
system just now," reported a traveler who came to Sittwe from Rangoon by
bus on Monday.

The worst checkpoint is operated by the military police at the entrance
road of Sittwe, where the military police are not only checking travelers
one by one, but also searching travelers' bags and luggage.

Two major bridges located on the Sittwe-Rangoon highway within Arakan
State have also seen beefed up security with additional army deployments.

"The authority deployed many soldiers on two major bridges - Gissapanadi
in Kyauktaw Township and Ramong in Min Bya Township. We had to spend at
least one hour at the bridges for security checks," the traveler added.

Travelers along the Sittwe-Rangoon highway are suffering and experiencing
difficulties after security was beefed up.

In Burma, people are worried about their security after a series of bombs
exploded around the country last month. On 15 April three bombs went off
during the water festival at the X20 water pavilion in Rangoon, killing
ten and injuring 170 people.

____________________________________

May 5, Mizzima News
Defence ministry Chin tour urges ‘successful polls’

Ministry of Defence officials has urged residents of Falam township, Chin
State in the country’s northwest, to co-operate with the military for a
“successful general election”, a local election official said.

The call came at a town hall meeting on Sunday between a team of high
ranking military officers, including Bureau of Special Operations (BSO)
Commander Lieutenant General Ohn Myint and Sagaing Division Commander
Major General Myint Soe, and a gathering of local government staff and
about 1,400 townspeople, Falam provisional election commission chairman
Sathin Kup told Mizzima.

Ohn Myint also promised that the military team would tackle the water
shortages and power outages plaguing the town, Sathin Kup said.

“They asked us to tell them what we want here and they promised to help us
as much as they could. Only co-operation between the people and government
staff in unity and solidarity can help the country develop,” the local
election official said, apparently toeing the junta policy line and
without elaborating on what kind of  co-operation was being sought.

He refrained from speaking about or campaigning on behalf of any party
ahead of the as-yet unscheduled national polls but made town history by
giving away 100 Kyat coins (10 US cents) to each attendee.

There are six BSOs – a type of super commander in the Burmese Army that
oversees military, political and economic affairs of their region.

Ohn Myint and his team had visited Chin State capital Hakha on April 1 in
the afternoon for electioneering. He inspected government offices, donated
books to the education department and gave 10 blankets to some of the
city’s poorest people.

____________________________________

May 5, Mizzima News
ILO, junta print anti-forced-labour leaflets - Khai Suu

In a first, the International Labour Organisation in Rangoon and the
junta’s Labour Ministry will jointly distribute literature on forced
labour in Burma at the end of the month, a source close to the UN workers’
rights body said.

The decision to distribute leaflets in the battle against forced labour
came out of a meeting in the national capital Naypyidaw on April 30,
attended by an International Labour Organisation (ILO) team led by liaison
officer Steve Marshall, and Deputy Minister of Labour Brigadier General
Tin Tun Aung.

“All the texts in the publications have been approved. We can distribute
them after the layout design and printing next week,” a person close to
the ILO told Mizzima.

“The literature explains what forced labour is, what it is not, how to
lodge complaints 
 and where to lodge such complaints. It also explains
the element of  secrecy and security of complainants of forced labour.”

The émigré Federation of Trade Unions of Burma welcomed the distribution
but said it would be insufficient for its claimed purpose, calling it a
“token gesture”.

“[Such an] accommodation on forced-labour issues by the junta is just a
token gesture,” federation joint general secretary Dr. Zaw Win Aung said.
“They are compelled to do it as they will face serious debate on the
forced-labour issue being practised in Burma at the July ILO meeting. So
they want to showcase something like this as [a sign of] compliance with
the ILO.”

“It will not be effective and fruitful if it is just 
 superficial. The
laws need to be enacted to tackle all the forced-labour cases effectively.
The perpetrators of forced labour should be punished in accordance with
the law. ” he added.

On the front page of the six-page booklet’s top-left corner is the logo of
the Labour Ministry. The ILO logo is at top-right. The leaflets will be in
English and Burmese and, to reach urban and rural areas, will be
distributed through NGOs and government departments. The cost of the
leaflets will be borne by the ILO.

____________________________________
ON THE BORDER

May 5, Democratic Voice of Burma
Thailand detains 100 Mon migrants - Maung Too

Around 100 ethnic Mon migrants from eastern Burma were detained in
Thailand’s Sangkhlaburi district on Monday after illegally entering the
country.

A Mon resident at the Thai-Burma border said that the migrants crossed the
border into Thailand from Phayathonsu (or Three Pagodas Pass) in Karen
state, close to Mon state, to look for work.

“They attempted to go past Sangkhlaburi by travelling on foot through the
jungle and were caught by Thai police and the army,” said the resident.

The arrested were 40 men and 63 women, all residents of Mon state’s Mudon,
Moulmein, Thanphyuzayat and Kyeikmayaw townships. The resident said that
the migration of people from Mon state into Thailand to escape harsh
living conditions in Burma has now become a “tradition”.

“It’s hard in Burma and jobs are not as good as in Thailand. Normally
[migrants] go back to visit their villages around the time of Thingyan
[annual water festival in April] and then return to Thailand afterwards,”
he said.

“Leaving to find jobs in Thailand has become a tradition here. Thailand
has better living standards and facilities.” He added that there are
hundreds of thousands of Mon migrant workers in Thailand.

Figures on the total number of Burmese migrant workers in Thailand are not
clear, but estimates range from two to three million. Despite widespread
flouting of labour rights, average wages for migrant workers in Thailand
are normally higher than the $US220 average annual salary in Burma.

The majority of these work in low-income industries such as fishing and
construction, while their lack of legal status makes it hard for them to
access education and healthcare. The Burmese government announced in
November last year that Burmese nationals living abroad would be required
remit half their salaries through a state-owned bank, which would likely
be taxed.

A recent agreement between the Burmese and Thai governments to register
migrant workers in Thailand came under fire largely because it required
migrants to return to Burma to be registered by authorities there. Migrant
rights groups warned that those who returned could face intimidation by
government officials.

Last week hundreds of Mon refugees fled to the Halockhani camp on the
Thai-Burma border after a Mon ceasefire group rejected proposals by the
Burmese government to transform into a border guard force. The furore
surrounding the border guard issue holds the potential to destabilise many
of Burma’s already volatile border regions.

____________________________________

May 5, Khonumthung News
Many Burmese involved in criminal activities: CM

Mizoram Chief Minister Lal Thanhawla has spoken of Burmese people being
involved in criminal activities at a Class 1 officers’ meet on May 3 in
the Vanapa Hall in Aizawl city, Mizoram northeast state of India.

The daily newspaper Vanglaini reported that the Chief Minister said that
most criminal activities in the state are by Burmese people, who are
foreigners in Mizoram state.

The Home Minister R. Zirliana said that the government could not deport
and push back Burmese people involved in criminal cases and hand them over
to the military junta directly, though he had made an announcement
regarding this. That is because of the prevailing international laws and
some weakness of the enforcement agencies. However, he said the government
would try to handle it the best way possible.

He warned that most Burmese people fled to Mizoram because of political
and economic upheaval in Burma and are staying here as refugees or migrant
workers under some NOGs. However, they have to understand not to take
advantage and get involved in wrong doings like threatening local people
with guns, rape and brew alcohol in Mizoram.

There are about 1.5 lakh Burmese people in Mizoram and 100,000 of them are
Chin people. The biggest NGO in Mizoram, the Young Mizo Association (YMA)
has carried out a population census of Burmese in 2009 but it has not been
announced officially yet.

____________________________________

May 5, Reuters
Chinese rescuers in Myanmar after mine accident

Beijing - Chinese rescue workers entered Myanmar to recover the bodies of
Chinese miners killed by a landslide at a mine near the border, the Xinhua
news agency reported on Wednesday.

At least 13 Chinese miners were killed in the Monday afternoon landslide
at the mine, about 3 km (1.8mile) inside Myanmar, Xinhua said. Five others
were brought to a hospital in Tengchong, a town in China's Yunnan
Province, while two others are still missing.

China is resource-rich Myanmar's main ally, and Chinese itinerant
businessmen dominate its minerals and timber trade, especially near the
border.

More than 140 rescue personnel with rescue machinery had entered Myanmar
to search for the missing miners, Xinhua said, citing a spokesman with the
Communist Party Committee of Tengchong county.

Beijing is taking an increasing interest in the stability of Myanmar,
where it is building oil and gas pipelines to allow it to diversify energy
transport for its booming economy.

Much of the border region is controlled by semi-autonomous ethnic
militias, rather than the Myanmar central government. Tensions have
escalated after many years of relative calm after the Myanmar army overran
one such state, Kokang, sending refugees spilling across the border into
Yunnan Province.

____________________________________
INTERNATIONAL

May 5, Agence France Press via Democratic Voice of Burma
US wary of Burma reshuffle

The United States reacted cautiously Tuesday after Burma’s prime minister,
General Thein Sein, and 22 other ministers last week retired from their
military posts and the premier created a new party.

“It may be seen as a possible positive step, but we’ll be guided by the
actions that Burma takes,” state department spokesman Philip Crowley told
reporters.

President Barack Obama’s administration, which has begun engaging
diplomatically with Burma, said it will judge the regime on “whether it
opens up,” whether or not the resignations amount to “wolves changing to
sheep’s clothing.”

On 26 April, General Thein Sein and some 22 other ministers retired from
their military posts in a move seen as converting the leadership to
civilian status ahead of elections due this year.

Four days after the announcements, state media reported that Thein Sein
applied to form a new political party, the Union Solidarity and
Development Party.

“What Burma needs to do is to open up real, genuine political space, not
just for ex-generals, but also for all people who want to participate
constructively in Burmese society,” Crowley said.

“That’s what they need to do, and that’s what they have been reluctant to
do,” he added.

Crowley recalled US criticism of a new election law which he said fell
short of international standards.

Under new election laws unveiled March 10, Myanmar opposition icon Aung
San Suu Kyi faced exclusion from her own party and was barred from
standing in the polls along with other political prisoners.

“Burma has to open up political space. It has to have a meaningful
dialogue with, you know, all of its ethnic groups within Burma,” Crowley
said.

“If these individuals transforming themselves from generals to civilians
can open up that space, then that we would truly see as a positive step,”
he said.

____________________________________

May 5, Agence France Presse
Top US Senator pushes Myanmar sanctions

Washington – The United States must renew tough sanctions against Myanmar
to punish the military regime there for failing to make "real progress" on
democratic reforms, a top US senator said Wednesday.

"Sanctions should remain in place because lifting sanctions would give the
regime precisely what it wants; namely, legitimacy," Republican Senate
Minority Leader Mitch McConnell said as he introduced an annual sanctions
bill.

The measure, expected to pass easily, includes a ban on importing Myanmar
goods, a freeze on US assets held by junta leaders, US opposition to
multilateral lending organizations helping Myanmar, and a ban on junta
leaders travelling to the United States.

McConnell pointed to two decades of US and UN attempts to engage Myanmar's
military rulers in a bid to foster democratic openness, and underscored
that "none of these efforts has yielded anything in the way of reform."

"The absence of any tangible result from engagement has nothing to do with
work of American diplomats. It has everything to do with the type of
regime we're dealing with in Burma. But again, the fact remains that no
progress has been made," said the senator, who represents the state of
Kentucky.

His comments came one day after US officials said a senior US diplomat was
considering a visit to Myanmar this month amid mounting Western concerns
over the military regime's plans for upcoming elections.

The diplomat, Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia Kurt Campbell, is
planning to return to Asia for a regional meeting next week in the
Philippines along with other stops, US officials said on condition of
anonymity.

The United States has voiced concern about Myanmar's plans to hold its
first elections in two decades later this year, which the opposition is
boycotting as it fears they will be a sham by the junta to gain
legitimacy.

The opposition National League for Democracy swept the last elections in
1990 but was never allowed to take over. The junta has kept the party's
leader, Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, under house arrest for more than
14 years.

____________________________________
OPINION / OTHER

May 5, Irrawaddy
After the NLD has gone - Aung Naing Oo

After more than 20 years struggling against military dominated politics in
Burma, the National League for Democracy (NLD), Burma’s main opposition
party, will cease to exist after May 6.

Whether the abolition of the party is blamed on the Burmese junta’s
restrictive election law or the way the NLD decided to demonstrate its
displeasure against it, the party’s disappearance will be a great loss for
Burma.

At a time when the country needs a strong opposition, it looks doubtful
that the smaller pro-democracy parties planning to contest the upcoming
election can fill the vacuum created by the NLD’s departure.

Yet what will really become of a political party seen as a symbol and
rallying point of the democracy movement for the past two decades? What
will become of Aung San Suu Kyi, its imprisoned party leader, when she is
freed from her current detention? And what will become of the “uncles,”
the ageing but resolutely committed senior leadership of the party?

It is instructive to look back on the day the party made the fateful
decision not to participate in the election so as to understand the
consequences and choices after May 6.

Unanimity in providing emotional support for Suu Kyi, keeping to principle
and standing resolutely against injustice—these are the trademarks of the
NLD and were the core values underpinning the party’s decision on March 29
to boycott the much-disputed election.

The NLD’s firm stand against the election also demonstrated how much power
imprisoned party leader Aung San Suu Kyi continues to wield both within
the party and on the wider political process in Burma.

Some questioned the NLD’s democratic credentials after the way the
no-contest vote was cast following the disclosure of Suu Kyi’s preference
that the party boycott the election. Her stand—relayed by her lawyer just
before the NLD party congress to debate the election—most certainly
influenced the vote of many of the 120 party leaders.

More astounding than the party’s unanimity at the congress was that the
NLD took the single decision not to contest the polls and provided no
alternative. There was no plan B.

Behind the façade of unanimity, there were both cheers and disappointment
at the decision. The purists who strongly advocate standing aloof from the
polls got what they wanted, but now their party faces disbandment, and
there is no clear future for them.

Despite personal disappointment, those who wished to see the NLD
participate in the election respected the decision, but many were unhappy
that the party offered no alternative. It was as if it had simply voted to
end the history of a political movement solely to demonstrate its total
disdain to an election and laws it sees as totally unjust.

This is where the inherent problem of the NLD lies: the absence of a
viable strategy to battle military rule. As a result of a single decision
not to contest the election on May 29, the party will have to disband
itself without any strategic reorientation and without  offering a way
forward to either pro or anti-election factions.

Under the current restrictive election law, no extant party will be
allowed to boycott the election. In his Labor Day speech, Burma’s ruling
leader, Snr-Gen Than Shwe, warned against any attempt to disrupt the
election. If a disbanded yet defiant NLD attempts to organize a boycott of
the election, there will be confrontation with the junta.

It is highly probable that some NLD members will go underground to
continue their fight for democracy, a recipe for more confrontation with
the junta.

The party’s current plan of moving into social work is heartily welcomed,
though it remains to be seen if it can truly shed its political image and
work at the grass roots level in the social and developmental sphere, an
area where the Burmese junta has failed miserably. This has the potential
to change the junta’s view of the NLD as a threat.

For now, the party’s credentials on social work are limited, with its main
efforts so far being focused on handing out financial and material support
to families of political prisoners and conducting some HIV/AIDS-related
work.

Though the aim of some party leaders to combine social and political work
is plausible, it seems unlikely to be viable under the present
circumstances.

While the junta’s political wing, the Union Solidarity and Development
Association, now the USDP, a political party, is blurring the line between
political and social work, the NLD will find it extremely difficult to
take the same path given the military perception of the NLD as a threat.

There is no plan to fill the vacuum left by an NLD dissolution, leaving
nothing to address the voices and desires of moderates.

Some moderates from the NLD may opt to form a party of their own or join
up with other pro-democracy parties to contest the upcoming election. But
since strategic reorientation and reorganization is not on the party’s
agenda, the moderates and hard-line NLD factions will undermine each other
in the fight for democracy.

The alarm bells were sounded by many who saw this coming before the NLD
decided not to participate in the election. Observers in Rangoon say the
two factions within the NLD have begun to alienate each other, threatening
an acrimonious split.

It is too early to see what will become of the NLD and whether it will be
successful in its transition to a non-political grouping. It is uncertain
who will be its leader and how it will mobilize its party members, who
will no longer be bound by party rules and affiliations.

Suu Kyi is unlikely to remain quiet, so she will continue to speak out
against injustice when she regains her freedom. For many of the older
members who have sided with her, 2010 does not seem to be the year to
retire; they have devoted their lives for Burma and will continue to work
alongside her whenever the opportunity avails.

It is also too early to say how moderates from the NLD will fare in the
election without Suu Kyi and the party behind them. They may not get
support from former comrades during the election, but if voters who reject
the junta's blunt tactics perceive them as the true alternative to the
NLD, they will have a chance of winning a fair number of seats in the
parliament.

After May 6, the NLD will cease to exist, but could anyone have guaranteed
the party's survival if it had decided otherwise and planned to fight
every step of the way?

What is beyond doubt is that no matter what the NLD embodied and stood
for—the aspirations of the Burmese people for democracy and a better life
will continue, outlasting the formal existence of the party itself.