BurmaNet News, July 1, 2010

[Editor]

July 1, 2010 Issue #3994

INSIDE BURMA
IPS: ‘No rallies, no slogans’ order shackles parties ahead of poll
DVB: Burma clamps down on travelling monks
Mizzima: NLD heads, youth wing visit student leaders’ kin
Irrawaddy: We have enough money, USDP tells Australians
CSM: Burma election: Are activists the new Third Force in politics?
Xinhua: Myanmar population hits over 59 mln in 2009
AP: Myanmar has 30 million eligible voters
Kaladan Press: Youths arrested for ‘illegal marriage’ in Maungdaw

BUSINESS / TRADE
DVB: India trade dampens Burma sanctions
Irrawaddy: Auto show in Rangoon has good sales

GUNS
Defense Industry Daily: China’s K-8 jets: A killer for Myanmar

HEALTH / AIDS
Mizzima: Dengue fever infects 80 this week in Rangoon

REGIONAL
Irrawaddy: Burmese films to be shown in North Korea

INTERNATIONAL
AFP: US to extend Burma import ban

OPINION / OTHER
Irrawaddy: To be Burma's president or army chief? - Khin Maung Tint and
Aung Moe Zaw


INTERVIEW
Irrawaddy: Unmasking Than Shwe - Simon Roughneen

____________________________________
INSIDE BURMA

Jul 1, Inter Press Service
‘No rallies, no slogans’ order shackles parties ahead of poll - Marwaan
Macan-Markar

Bangkok - Burma’s military regime is giving its critics more ammunition,
tightening its grip ahead of a general election this year by seeing to it
that independent political parties are barred from chanting slogans,
marching in rallies and displaying their party flags when they campaign.

Ahead of national elections for parliament – meant to set the foundation
for a "discipline flourishing democracy" in the South-east Asian nation --
the country’s latest restrictions aim to stamp out the customary colour,
animated campaigning and slogan cheering that is the standard feature of
pre-poll politics in the more vibrant democracies in the region, such as
Indonesia and the Philippines.

These limitations were spelled out in a late June directive issued by
Burma’s powerful Election Commission (EC), whose rulings cannot be
challenged in a court ahead of the poll. The election date itself has not
been announced.

Published in the local media, ‘Directive 2/2010’ reveals the lengths to
which the EC has gone to protect the authoritarian order in Burma, also
called Myanmar.

Declared taboo during the campaign are any speeches and published material
that "tarnish" the image of the military-run state, its over 400,000-
strong armed forces and the junta-shaped 2008 Constitution. Candidates
have been warned to avoid public utterances that undermine "security and
community peace."

And even if the independent parties – only three of the registered 33 so
far – yield to these shackles, they face even more challenges when they
organise public meetings for candidates to address the estimated 27.2
million voters across the country.

The parties have to first seek approval from the EC and three different
local authorities a week ahead of a planned meeting, specifying the
building where it will be held.

In addition, their applications need to state how many people will attend
each meeting and give a detailed biography and photograph of each speaker,
as well as the exact time each speaker will begin and end speaking.

"This is blatant interference by the junta to try and control the outcome
of this year’s election," said Zin Linn, spokesman for the National
Coalition Government for the Union of Burma (NCGUB), the democratically
elected government that won Burma’s last general election in 1990 but has
since been forced into exile. "Some of these restrictions are more severe
than those in the 1990 election."

That this election will be a "sham" is confirmed by the unlimited freedom
enjoyed by the pro-junta Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP),
Zin Linn says. "It is allowed to break all the limits placed by the EC on
political parties. The junta is also openly encouraging people to support
the USDP," he told IPS.

The USDP, headed by the junta’s second-in-command, Prime Minister Thein
Sein, is the political wing of the pro-regime Union Solidarity and
Development Association (USDA).

But the USDA, which at one time declared that it had 18 million members,
does more than serve as the social and welfare arm of the regime. Its
members have been used to harass those with the National League for
Democracy (NLD), the party led by pro-democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi.

The NLD, which won the 1990 elections with a thumping 82 percent of the
485 seats in parliament, was forced to dissolve as a party after it
announced in March that it would boycott the poll given the junta’s
restrictions around the conduct of this year’s poll.

The NLD’s high-risk political gamble was in solidarity for Suu Kyi, who
has spent over 14 of the past 20 years under house arrest, and the
country’s over 2,200 political prisoners.

The poll restrictions come at a time when Burma’s military rulers have a
greater stranglehold on the country than they had in 1990. That poll was
held two years after a student-led democracy uprising was brutally
crushed. Thus, the intervening years saw the regime at the time -- in
power since a 1962 coup – nurse uncertainty about its absolute hold over
the country.

That political atmosphere enabled the 1990 poll to be held with "a bit
more openness" than this year’s general election, says Aung Naing Oo, a
Burmese political analyst living in exile in Thailand. "Political parties
had 17 months to campaign and although there were restrictions, not all
were properly enforced."

"There was lot of intimidation against the NLD but no rules against
parties that are as restrictive as this year’s," he told IPS. "Election
Day was very, very free and fair; vote counting was very transparent."

That same poll saw some 230 political parties apply to contest the
election, but only 93 vied for seats in the legislature on voting day. And
although the military warned that the number of people at campaign
meetings in townships could not exceed 50, NLD’s meeting reportedly drew
between 300 to 500 people at times.

This time around, the junta appears determined to avoid a repeat of seeing
a pro-junta party trounced at the polls, an attitude that has alarmed
rights groups.

"The laws have been drafted with broad language as to what would
constitute illegal or not," said Benjamin Zawacki, Burma researcher for
the London-based Amnesty International. "The powers vested in the EC gives
them complete discretion and there is no appeal process."

"There are three freedoms utterly fundamental for an election – the human
rights for freedom of expression, peaceful assembly and association," he
said in an interview. "We see these three freedoms clearly under attack
this time."

____________________________________

July 1, Democratic Voice of Burma
Burma clamps down on travelling monks - Min Lwin

Suspension of passports for monks in Burma has begun amid suggestions that
the Burmese government is attempting to block the influential community
from going abroad in the run-up to elections.

Monks have also complained that the government’s passport issuing board in
Rangoon is also refusing to extend nearly-expired passports and
implementing restrictions on applications for new ones.

One monk told DVB on condition of anonymity that the new regulation
required monks looking to go abroad to have the Dhammācariyā
degree, which is equivalent to a Masters degree in the UK and awards
status as a lecturing monk.

“Also there are three requirements when submitting the passport
application: you must have the Dhammācariyā degree, you must
have the sponsor’s letter and must have the approval by the religious
affairs minister,” he said. “These are the requirements that cannot be
achieved easily and are thus stopping the monks [from going abroad].”

The allegations were denied by Burma’s ministry of religious affairs.
According to government statistics, there are some 400,000 monks in Burma
out of a total population of around 50 million.

The community is highly revered inside the country, and rose to
international attention after the September 2007 uprising in which
hundreds of thousands of monks took to the streets in protest against
military rule in Burma. A number were shot dead by troops, while hundreds
more were forced to flee abroad.

According to the Thailand-based Assistance Association for Political
Prisoners-Burma (AAPP), 252 monks are currently behind bars in Burma, some
serving sentences of more than 70 years. Human Rights Watch said last year
on the anniversary of the September 2007 uprising that monks were still
subject to oppression, intimidation and surveillance.

Prominent exiled monk, Ashin Issariya (also known as King Zero), said that
monks travelling abroad to study were seen by the Burmese government to be
defying the ruling generals and were able to speak freely about what they
had witnessed inside Burma.

“When [junta chief] Than Shwe visited Sri Lanka [in November 2009], he was
boycotted by Burmese monks studying in the country, who refused to accept
religious donations from him; he was very disappointed about that,” said
Ashin Issariya.

The giving of donations to monks is seen as a symbolically important
‘merit making’ act within Buddhist tradition, and the refusal of this can
carry negative ramifications, such as bad karma.

“[Than Shwe] also got the same treatment from majority of the Burmese
monks in India when he visited there; the government believes that monks
studying abroad are becoming more defiant against [the government],” Ashin
Issariya added.

He said this was due to the monks gaining international exposure, “so [the
junta] began enacting various restrictions to keep the monks from going
abroad”.

____________________________________

July 1, Mizzima News
NLD heads, youth wing visit student leaders’ kin - Myint Maung

New Delhi  – Two top leaders of the National League for Democracy and
party youth-wing members visited to the families of detained 88 Generation
Students’ leaders on Tuesday to offer support and encouragement.

Party vice-chairman Tin Oo, central executive committee member Win Tin and
nine members of the NLD’s youth wing visited the families of 88 Generation
Students Min Ko Naing, Ko Ko Gyi and Mar Ki in the morning. The student
leaders are serving 65-year prison sentences.

“They [the students’ leaders] have made great sacrifices in the interest
of democracy so we are visiting their family members to encourage them and
express our support,” Tin Oo told Mizzima.

The families’ members warmly welcomed the NLD leaders and young people to
the homes of Min Ko Naing and Mar Ki in Thingangyun Township and Ko Ko
Gyi’s home in South Okkalapa Township, both towns in eastern Rangoon.

Aung Aung Tun, a brother of Ko Ko Gyi, told Mizzima: “We are happy because
of their visit to encourage us. We thank them. They asked me about my
brother’s health condition and whether we can meet him often or not
because the prison where he is detained is very far away”.

The 88 Generation Students’ leaders were released from prison at the end
of 2004 while Tin Oo was imprisoned after the May 30, 2003 Depayin
Massacre. They were again arrested in August 2007 and Win Tin was released
from prison on September 23, 2008. Tin Oo was released on February 13,
2010.

“They’ve fought for democracy and human rights, so we are very grateful to
them for all that they have done for our nation,” Tin Oo said. “When they
were released from prison in 2004, we were being held and didn’t have
chance to meet them, so we arranged to visit their family members to
express our support for them.”

The other leaders of the 88 Generation Students are Mya Aye, Jimmy, Min
Zeya, Thet Zaw, Aye Than aka Thant Tin, Kyaw Kyaw Htwe, Zaw Zaw Min, Ant
Bwe Kyaw, Pandate Tun, Nilar Thein, Mar Mar Oo, Sandar Min, Mi Mi aka Thin
Thin Aye and Thet Thet Aung. Along with Min Ko Naing, Ko Ko Gyi and Mar
Ki, they were arrested again for organising peaceful protests to condemn
sharp fuel price rises in August 2007 and were sentenced to 65-year prison
terms on November 11, 2008.

Although the All Burma Federation of Student Unions (ABFSU), an
underground organisation, had not run student conferences after its sixth
student conference in 1960, Min Ko Naing, Ko Ko Gyi and Moe Thee Zun
organised the seventh student conference to reorganise the ABFSU on 28
August, 1988.

But, since the military junta took power on September 18, 1988, the
student leaders were among the thousands of political prisoners arrested.
They were sentenced to more than 15 years in jail.

In late 2004, the student leaders were released and continued to carry out
political activities under the name of “88 Generation Students”.

____________________________________

July 1, Irrawaddy
We have enough money, USDP tells Australians - Ko Htwe

A leading member of the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) has
told visiting Australian officials that the newly formed party has
sufficient finances because it has inherited funds from the junta-backed
civic organization, the Union Solidarity and Development Association
(USDA), according to a source who attended the meeting but who spoke to
The Irrawaddy on condition of anonymity.

The remarks were made by Myint Oo, a leading member of the USDP, which is
headed by Burmese Prime Minister Thein Sein, and told to Australia's
Deputy Secretary of Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade Hugh Borrowman
on Wednesday during their meeting in Rangoon.

The Australian Embassy in Rangoon would not comment about the meeting when
The Irrawaddy contacted it on Thursday.

The meeting was also attended by representatives of three other political
parties—the National Unity Party, the Democratic Party and the Union
Democratic Party.

Myint Oo also told the Australian delegation that the USDP  will provide
the registration fees for some of their candidates, but that other
candidates were in a financial position to cover the costs by themselves,
the source said.

Parties must pay 500,000 kyat (US $500) for each candidate that it fields
in the election.

Short on funds and with limited manpower at their disposal, several
political parties in Burma are looking to pool their resources ahead of
this year's election. They say they are facing severe financial
constraints that limit their ability to function effectively.

The USDA is a state-sponsored mass civic organization formed by the junta
in 1993. It claims to have more than 24 million members nationwide,
including civil servants and members of the military. The USDA Central
Panel of Patrons include Snr-Gen Than Shwe, Prime Minister Thein Sein and
other government ministers.

On April 29, Thein Sein and 26 ministers and senior officials formed the
USDP to contest the election later this year. The Election Commission
officially recognized the USDP as a political party on June 8.

Meanwhile, members of the USDA have been canvassing for donations for the
new party. In addition, the USDA has recently offered small loans to many
low-income workers and farmers around Rangoon, sources said. Stallholders
who lost their businesses when Rangoon's Mingalar Market was destroyed by
fire last month have been invited to apply for loans from the USDP.

Two members of the Election Commission, Dr. Tin Aung Aye and Win Kyi, met
with the Australian officials in Naypyidaw on Tuesday, according to
state-run newspapers.

____________________________________

June 28, The Christian Science Monitor
Burma election: Are activists the new Third Force in politics?

The Burma election this year is widely expected to reinforce the junta’s
power. But some nonprofits support the vote, and dozens of political
parties are taking part, in hopes of chipping away at military rule.

Inside a humid room, rows of neatly dressed Burmese students are quizzing
their guest lecturer. The class is Social Entrepreneurship and the topic
is the European Union, where the lecturer comes from.

Why is Switzerland not in the EU? Why is marijuana legal in some countries
but not in others? “Good questions,” the teacher nods.

The class is run by Myanmar Egress, a nonprofit organization that has
become a one-stop shop for civil society activism in military-ruled Burma
(Myanmar). Founded in 2006 by academics and businesspeople, it offers paid
courses from Development Economics to Public Speaking Skills to Team
Building. It also has a public policy research arm and conducts
humanitarian relief assessments, while quietly extending into political
education.

But the group also takes a conciliatory stance toward the unpopular junta,
raising hackles among some democracy activists. It allegedly has close
ties to the regime, and supports the controversial elections set for later
this year, part of a seven-stage road map toward a “discipline-flourishing
democracy.”

Critics say these elections, the first to be held in 20 years, will simply
perpetuate military rule behind a civilian facade. The US has warned that
voting is unlikely to be free and fair.

Some analysts have identified Myanmar Egress and other moderate groups as
a new “Third Force” that seeks to steer a path between the regime and its
opponents, including detained leader Aung San Suu Kyi, whose National
League for Democracy is boycotting the vote.

Others doubt that Myanmar Egress is a force for democratic change because
of its alleged close ties with the junta, says Aung Zaw, editor of the
Irrawaddy, a magazine published in Thailand by exiled Burmese activists.
“It’s a very controversial group of people. They appear to be supporting
the regime’s road map and the elections.”

Tin Maung Thann, a co founder of Myanmar Egress, says it would be naive to
expect a swift reversion to democracy after nearly 50 years of military
rule. He argues that reform can begin at the margins, then move into the
mainstream once the rules of the game are established.

Training young people in fields like rural development, and securing the
best and brightest to study overseas, is one way to seed this change, he
says. “We know how to create the (political) space.”

____________________________________

July 1, Xinhua General News Service
Myanmar population hits over 59 mln in 2009

The population of Myanmar has hit 59. 12 million at the end of 2009, up
from 57.37 million in May 2008 and 39.3 million in 1988, according to the
latest figures of the Ministry of Immigration and Population.

Of the total, population attaining the age of 18 or above stood at over 30
million. The male population was 29.39 million, while the female's 29.73
million, the figures show. Myanmar's population grew 2.02 percent
annually.

Myanmar conducted its last population census in 2007, the two prior
censuses being in 1973 and 1983. The 2007 population census was carried
out with the technical aid of the United Nations Fund for Population
Activities (UNFPA).

With the UNFPA assistance, the country had also carried out a population
changes and fertility survey in 1991 and a fertility survey and a
reproductive health survey in 1997 and 2001 respectively.

Meanwhile, an agricultural census for 2010 has been underway in Myanmar
since March this year with the cooperation of the United Nations Food and
Agriculture Organization (FAO).

The one-and-a-half-year project, which lasts until August 2011, is being
carried out by the Department of Agriculture, Settlement and Land Record
and the census will be presented in the year 2013.

In the fourth Myanmar agricultural census, FAO is providing over 410,000
U.S. dollars' fund, sending technical experts from countries such as
Thailand and the Philippines to work together with the local experts.

Moreover, the FAO is also helping Myanmar find international donors for
3.1 million dollars needed in implementing the project.

Myanmar had received 2.19 million dollars from international donors in
1993 and 297,000 dollars from FAO in 2003 for the agricultural census
projects.

Myanmar stands as a country with agriculture as the mainstay of its
economy. With over 70 percent of Myanmar's population being engaged in
agricultural undertakings, the sector contributes 40 percent to the
country's gross domestic product.

____________________________________

July 1, Associated Press
Myanmar has 30 million eligible voters

About 30 million of Myanmar's 59 million people will be eligible to vote
in the country's first elections in two decades, a report said Thursday.

The Immigration and Population Ministry collected data through the end of
2009 showing the population is now 59.12 million, the biweekly Eleven
journal reported.

Of the total population, 30.74 million are age 18 or older, the journal
said. Voting age in Myanmar is 18. Myanmar's population was listed as 35.3
million in the last official census sponsored by the United Nations in
1983.

The population is growing by roughly 2 percent a year, the journal said.

The elections planned for later this year will be the first since 1990.
Critics call the polls a sham designed to cement nearly 50 years of
military rule. The junta has not yet announced an election date.

____________________________________

June 30, Kaladan Press
Youths arrested for ‘illegal marriage’ in Maungdaw

Maungdaw, Arakan State: A number of youths were arrested by Burma’s border
security force (Nasaka) recently on the allegation that they married
without permission of the authorities, said a local trader on condition of
anonymity.

In north Arakan, Rohingya community has to have marriage permits from
Nasaka, if anyone does not comply with the order; he/she will be fined or
jailed. Rohingya youths have to submit applications to the local Nasaka
camps to obtain marriage permission by spending a lot of money. But,
sometimes, they do not get permission and have to wait a long time. Some
are totally barred from permission, because they cannot afford the money.
Some of couples flee to Bangladesh to get married.

One of the victims named Younus (25) from Maung Nama south village of
Maungdaw Township was arrested by the Nasaka of Aung Min Gala Nasaka camp
of Nasaka area No.6, Maungdaw Township on the night of June 27, on the
allegation that he had married without permission, said a relative of the
victim.

The victim was also arrested by the Nasaka last year for marrying without
permission and was sentenced to one year in prison for illegal marriage.

After being released from jail, he submitted an application to the local
Nasaka camp for marriage permission yet again.  Before getting permission
from the Nasaka, the victim was arrested again by the Nasaka.

However, he was set free the following day, on June 28, after paying Kyat
60,000.

Besides, one Sayedullah (30), son of Abdu Salam, from Maung Nama south
village of Maungdaw township was arrested by the Nasaka of Aung Min Gala
Nasaka camp of Nasaka Arae No.6, on June 29, on the allegation that he has
two wives and one is legal and another illegal, said a close relative of
the victim

After arrest, he was tortured severely in front of the family members. 
After that, he was brought to the Nasaka camp and detained. Later, he was
released after paying Kyat 800,000.

Though the Nasaka couldn’t prove that the victim has two wives, he was
arrested because the Nasaka knew that he recently received money after
lending his shrimp projects to the local people. Nasaka personnel collect
information about villagers who have money through their collaborators.

They (Nasaka) know that after arresting Rohingya people on false and
fabricated cases and threats, they will get money, said a local elder who
preferred not to be named.

Nasaka frequently arrests local youths on allegations such as they married
without permission, have two wives, going for engagement without
permission and bridegrooms paying visit to the brides’ houses, said a
youth from the locality.

This is a deliberate ploy against the Rohingya community to push them into
poverty by physical and mental harassment, said a school teacher.

The Nasaka came to north Arakan in the guise of border development, but in
fact, they came to harass the Rohingya community and to cripple them
economically by confiscation of lands, extracting forced labor, arbitrary
arrests and extortion and movement restriction among others, said a local
schoolteacher preferring not to be named.

____________________________________
BUSINESS / TRADE

July 1, Democratic Voice of Burma
India trade dampens Burma sanctions - Francis Wade

Burma’s trade with neighbouring India has seen a 26 percent increase in
the past year while Singapore becomes a top destination for Burmese
exports.

Statistics from both countries show that foreign interest in Burma’s
economy is growing, despite sporadic attempts by the US and EU to pressure
regional countries into boycotting the resource-rich pariah.

Trade with India reached US$1.19 billion in 2009-10, Xinhua news reported,
but the country still lags behind Singapore, China and Thailand in trading
partner rankings. Thailand currently provides the biggest crutch for the
ruling junta, but China is rapidly becoming the main impediment to
effective sanctions on Burma.

Naypyidaw and Beijing earlier this month inked a raft of new trade deals,
including the controversial Monywa copper agreement, which will see
Chinese weapons giant, Norinco, move in on one of Burma’s most lucrative
mines.

Moreoever, the Shwe pipeline project which will carry oil and gas from
western Burma to southern China is expected to net the ruling State Peace
and Development Council (SPDC) up to US$30 billion over the next three
decades.

Despite the US senate yesterday voting to extend an import ban on Burmese
goods – a reaction to lack of progress by the junta on human rights abuses
and drug trafficking – America’s interest in Burma remains controversial,
with US oil giant Chevron able to continue its work in the Yadana oil
fields.

The Yadana pipeline, which feeds energy-hungry Thailand, has been mired in
controversy, and appears to require a 40-kilometer wide militarised
security corridor through southeastern to protect the flow of gas.

Burma’s expansion of its natural energy sector has whetted the appetite of
India, which is eyeing a US$5.6 billion investment in two major dam sites.
Analysts have said the country is turning to Burma for its hydroelectric
needs because of environmental and human rights concerns in India
resulting from its own such projects.

The SPDC’s Central Statistical Organisation (CSO) notes that US$137
million worth of Indian capital had been invested in Burma’s oil and gas
sector by September 2007; more recent figures show that India’s contracted
investment in Burma in 2009-10 reached US$189 million.

China however remains the key funder of Burmese hydropower, and the drying
of the Mekong river is partly blamed on Chinese dam construction. China’s
reach into Burma is set to soar over the coming decade; already it has
forced US policymakers to question the worth of sanctions in light of the
rise of regional powerhouses who are willing to trade with the maligned
regime.

____________________________________

July 1, Irrawaddy
Auto show in Rangoon has good sales - Nayee Lin Latt

More than 150 cars were sold during a three-day car show organized in
Rangoon by China-based Rammer Automobile Manufacturing & Trading Co., Ltd.

Ko Sai, the owner of Myanma Arrman (Strength) Automobile Manufacturing
Company, said Chariot automobiles, jointly manufactured by Japan's
Mitsubishi and China's Tang Fung companies, have been imported for sale by
the Union of Myanmar Economic Holdings Limited (UMEHL) and Myanma Arrman.

“It is just like the Suzuki model manufactured by the Ministry of Industry
No. 1. We bought car parts from factories in China and then reassembled
them in the Shwe Pyi Thar industrial zone in Rangoon. Nice design and
reasonable price attracts the customers,” Ko Sai said.

He said the Chariot MVP car comes in three price ranges: 63 million kyat
(US $63,000), 58 million and 53 million. The sales at the show, from
Saturday to Monday, were reportedly better than expected .

“Everyone who buys a car has the privilege to play lucky draw, and an 50
to 70 draws were made per day,” said a journal reporter in Rangoon.
He said that the Rammer cars were more fashionable and modern than those
reassembled in the industrial zone and enjoyed more attention at the show.

The exhibition included more than 35 show rooms along with 20 top girl
promoters.

“There were 10 models for cars and 10 for distributing pamphlets and
cat-walks on the stage. We also rehearsed for three days before the show,”
said one of the models who performed in the show.

“The cars were jointly manufactured with China and the body designs look
very nice. They are like Western cars,” she said.

Show organizer Ko Cho said, “There was also a Chinese technician at the
show. One car in the show was worth 50-60 million kyat. It was designed
very differently from previous shows.”

Normally, Burma's regime allows only a few thousand cars to be imported
each year through the junta-controlled UMEHL and businessmen close to the
ruling generals.

Since early this year, the Ministry of Commerce has deregulated the import
of cars and allowed some private-owned companies to import buses and heavy
equipment.

Burma's import restrictions have skewed the prices of cars—both new or
used—to prices that would be considered absurd in neighboring countries.
Illegal vehicles are regularly smuggled into Burma across the Thai-Burmese
border and the China-Burmese border. Smugglers usually bribe border
security forces and local authorities to transport the illegal vehicles
into Burma.

____________________________________
GUNS

June 30, Defense Industry Daily
China’s K-8 jets: A killer for Myanmar

Burma’s air force relies heavily on Chinese weapons. A handful of Russian
MiG-29s will grow to 30 in the wake of a 2009 order, but the rest of its
fighter fleet is made up of Chinese MiG-21 (60 J-7s) and MiG-19 (12 J-6
and 36 Q-5) variants. Reports indicate that they are supported by about 6
Serbian Super Galeb trainer/ light attack jets, and 17 Swiss Pilatus
PC-6/7/9 turboprop trainers that have been armed for counterinsurgency.

Recent reports indicate that some standardization may be on the way. In
1998, the Burmese air force bought K-8 Karakorum (export version of
China’s JL-8) jet trainers and light attack aircraft, which are a
cooperative venture between China and Pakistan. They are now stationed at
Taungoo Air Base north of Yangon, and sources vary between 4-12 aircraft.
In the wake of a November 2009 visit to China, Burma’s SLORC regime will
be adding another 50 K-8s. As one might expect, this deal has a strong
Chinese resource angle


The Technical End: K-8s for Myanmar
The Strategic End: Qiud Pro Quo?
Additional Readings & Sources
The Technical End: K-8s for Myanmar

The K-8 jet trainer, also known as the K-8 Karakorum or the Hongdu JL-8,
is a joint venture between China’s Nanchang-based Hongdu Aviation Industry
Group (HAIG), and Pakistan Aeronautical Complex (PAC) in the 1990s.

The aircraft has 3 engine options. The most common by production quantity
is China’s WS-11, a licensed copy of the Ukranian Ivchenko AI-25TL
turbofan. Aircraft so equipped are reportedly designated L-11s. The
AI-25TL reportedly delivers 3,600 – 3,800 pounds thrust, and also equips
aircraft for most export customers. On the other hand, the WS-11’s Chinese
provenance may be an advantage with the Burmese.

The jets can carry up to 4 under-wing pylons rated at 250 kg each. Options
include fuel drop tanks, 23mm cannon pods, unguided rockets, unguided
bombs, and even short-range air-to-air missiles.

According to Sino Defense, over 500 K-8s have been built since 1993. To
date, it has been ordered by Pakistan (120), China (100+), Bolivia (6),
Burma/ Myanmar (54-62), Ghana (4), Namibia (4), Sri Lanka (6-8, now 3-5),
Sudan (12), Zambia (8), and Zimbabwe (12). A modified version is also
produced by Egypt as the K-8E (120). Other reported orders include
Tanzania (6), and a recent order from Venezuela (18, may soon become 40).

As one can readily see from the above list, the K-8 is in service with a
number of rogue regimes. Chad may have faced supplier issues when it armed
its Pilatus PC-7/9 turboprops, but its opponents in Sudan faced no such
issues with their K-8s in Darfur and beyond.

The numbers bought by Myanmar make sense only if many of these aircraft
are dedicated to a counterinsurgency role, where slower 2-seat aircraft
are often more effective than high-speed interceptors.

Irawaddy reports that parts of the K-8 aircraft were transported by cargo
ship from China, and are being assembled at the Aircraft Production and
Maintenance Base in Meikhtila. It added that Burma’s main air base for
maintenance, the Aircraft Production and Maintenance Air Base (APMAB) in
Panchangone in Mingaladon Township, has been relocated to Nyaunggone,
close to the regime’s Flying Training Base in Shante in Meikhtila
Township.

The K-8 jet deal was reportedly brokered by Burma’s business/political
tycoon Tay Za, a multi-billionaire go-between for the regime who is on the
on the American, European, Canadian, Australian and Swiss financial
sanctions blacklists for Burma. Financial terms were not disclosed, but
the record of past sales establishes a conventional price between $5-10
million per plane.

The Strategic End: Quid Pro Quo?

In February 2009, “China’s Unusual Deals Working to Grow African Arms
Presence” noted the tendency for China to arrange weapons deals as
vehicles to secure cut-rate resources: Zambia using its copper resources
to pay China in a number of military deals, Kenya negotiating to trade
fishing rights for arms, etc. The deal with Burma, aka. Myanmar, is
shrouded in secrecy, but related developments in country strongly suggest
a continuation of that trend.

Burma is one of the world’s most repressive regimes, and its government
faces widespread international sanctions as a result. In recent years,
it’s estimated that over 100,000 people may have died in the country
because the junta refused to permit international aid after Cyclone
Nargis, and promptly significant amounts of the aid that was provided for
its own use and/or sale. A long-standing series internal wars with ethnic
groups like the Karens adds to the internal misery.

Now the junta faces an additional challenge: securing its portion of a 771
km/ 479 mile dual oil/gas pipeline to its backers in China. The $2.5
billion project, which will be 50.9% owned by China’s CNPC oil firm and
49.1% by the Myanmar junta. The pipeline will ship from the port of
Sittwe/ Akyab in Malaysia northward across the country, entering China at
the border city of Ruili in Yunnan province, and continuing on through
China to the coastal province of Guangxi on Vietnam’s northern border.

While China’s economy has cooled as a result of the global recession,
long-term, secure access to the resources needed to supply its growing
economy is one of the regime’s top strategic priorities. When it’s
complete, the dual-pipeline will give China an alternate route for Middle
Eastern oil and gas that is not subject to naval interference around the
narrow Straits of Malacca.

It will also serve as a convenient shipping route for Burma’s own oil and
natural gas in Arakan state, and the Bay of Bengal. Chinese firms are very
heavily involved in Myanmar’s energy sector.

As a side-effect, the combination of Burmese resources and a strategic
shipment route for critical energy resources will ensure permanent and
unwavering support from China for the Burmese junta, and blockage of
future sanctions or international action against the junta.

As a point of comparison, the 60 km Yadana pipeline to Thailand resulted
in a 40 km wide cleared “security corridor” around the pipeline, along
with reports of forced labor, murder, and widespread rapes by the junta’s
forces. The new Chinese pipeline is much longer, and also far more
important to a much larger partner country. Reports indicate that the
Myanmar junta has already devoted more than 10,000 front-line soldiers (a
reported 44 battalions) to clearing the new pipeline’s path.

http://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/Chinas-K-8-Jets-A-Killer-for-Myanmar-06457/

____________________________________
HEALTH / AIDS

July 1, Mizzima News
Dengue fever infects 80 this week in Rangoon - Kyaw Kha

Chiang Mai  –  More than 900 people in Rangoon Division were infected with
dengue fever and six died in the first four months of this year, according
to state-run Chinese news agency Xinhua and a well-placed source at the
Burmese Medical Association in Rangoon.

Six out of a total 910 people infected with dengue died between January
and May 5 and more than 80 people were infected with the potentially
deadly disease this week, Xinhua reported yesterday, citing data from the
Rangoon City Development Committee, without giving details.

The medical association source confirmed the figures, saying: “We have
learned that six out of a total of more than 900 dengue fever patients
died of this disease this year from hospital data.”

Though the exact data on affected areas was still yet unknown, the
townships usually hit in Rangoon Division are Dawbon, Thaketa, South
Dagon, North Dagon, Shwepyithar, Hlaingtharyar, Dala, Twante, Thanlyin,
Pazundaung, Thingangyun, Phawkan and Insein.

Child dengue fever patients were being treated at Rangoon Children’s
Hospital in Ahlone Township, a doctor on duty at the hospital told
Mizzima.

“Some child patients are receiving treatment for dengue fever but staff
are not authorised to disclose how many patients are involved,” the doctor
said. “You may ask our medical superintendent in person but we are also
not authorised to give out contact numbers.”

High incidence of dengue fever is generally found in Rangoon, Pegu,
Sagaing, Irrawaddy Divisions and Mon State, especially between June and
September during the monsoon.

Dengue and dengue hemorrhagic fever are acute infectious diseases
transmitted by day-feeding mosquitoes in the tropics. They can be
life-threatening and are characterised by skin rashes, severe headaches
and pain in the joints and back. It is also known as break-bone fever.

“Yes, there are some such patients at our hospital but you must ask
doctors for the information you want as we are not authorised to answer
your query”, a nurse on duty also said.

Rangoon Children’s Hospital medical superintendent also declined to give
details, saying she was unauthorised to answer.
Cases in children were generally found in the 4-15 age group. Dengue
spreads in urban areas aided when water was left uncovered, allowing the
mosquitoes carrying the viruses to breed, such as in drains, garbage
dumps, ponds and other open containers, a family doctor based in Rangoon
said on condition of anonymity.

“Mosquitoes are the carriers of this deadly disease, spreading it from one
person to another 
 When contracted, the first signs 
 are similar to
simple influenza and then shock signs and symptoms will be seen three to
five days later”, he said.

Dengue patients are generally admitted at Rangoon General Hospital, Ahlone
Children’s Hospital, Thingangyun Children’s Hospital and North Okklapa
Children’s Hospital.

The best way to cope with the disease was prevention, such as keeping the
environment of each house clean and dry and preventing mosquito bites, the
doctor suggested.

The breeding grounds of mosquitoes – such as stagnant water, old wells and
ponds, canals, garbage dumps and other places where water collects – must
be sprayed with insecticide to stop mosquito larvae breeding, he added.

Township health department officials were conducting awareness campaigns
on the disease but they were only teaching people how to use the drugs and
adjust their lifestyles for prevention of dengue, sources said. Spraying
of insecticides on dirty drainage, in ponds and or at garbage dumps was
not included in their programmes.

According to official statistics, 3,129 people were infected with dengue
last year and 37 died.

____________________________________
REGIONAL

July 1, Irrawaddy
Burmese films to be shown in North Korea - Lawi Weng

Five Burmese films will be screened at a film festival in Norther Korea in
September, the first time Korean audiences will see films from the
Southeast Asian nation.

Kyi Soe Tun, a well-known Burmese film director and producer, said five
films including “Hloe Wat Thaw Hnin” (The Secret of Snow), “Hmaw Lint Chin
Myar Swar”(With More Hope), “Kyo Tan” (Attachment), “A Tate Ka A Yeik”
(The Shadow from The Past) and “Sa Hta Gan” (Hexagon) will be shown at the
11th Pyongyan International Film Festival.

The Pyongyang International Cinema House was packed for screenings at
North Korea’s film festival in 2008. (Photo: Malte Herwig/ The New York
Times)
The films, which are sub-titled in English, were selected by by the
Myanmar Film Association to compete at film festivals in other countries.
In 2008, the film festival screened more than 100 films from at least 45
nations including China, Russia, France, Italy, Japan and South Korea. The
North Korean government has rarely shown films from other countries.
Burmese films are rarely seen in foreign countries.

Kyi Soe Tun said, “I believe the films are a way to promote the
relationship between the two countries.”

____________________________________

July 1, Mizzima News
Filipino activists urge Aquino to take action on Burma - Kyaw Mya

New Delhi– Activists from the Free Burma Coalition Philippines have called
for stronger policies and more concrete action on democratisation in Burma
from the new Aquino administration, which was sworn in yesterday.

The calls came yesterday as Benigno Aquino III was sworn in by Supreme
Court Justice Conchita Corpio-Morales at Rizal Park in Manila. The judge
also witnessed the oath of office from Vice-President Jejomar Binay, in
nationally televised ceremonies. Aquino, who last month won presidential
elections by a landslide, succeeds Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, who was
plagued by abuse of power and corruption allegations.

Egoy Bans, spokesman of the Free Burma Coalition Philippines, a network of
Filipino activists for Burma, told Mizzima of the group’s hopes for the
new presidency.

“The new president has made the commitment in his inaugural address to
continue working for the restoration of democracy, not only in the
Philippines but in the Asean region as well,” he said.

Aquino’s official government policy outlined a push for human rights, so
the coalition hoped that policies strengthen “but with more concrete
actions for democratisation in Burma and to lead Asean towards supporting
those actions”, Bans said

“We are looking for better actions than those of the previous government,
and we are hoping that the new president, Aquino, will follow the lead of
his mother, [the late] Corazon Aquino, who was also president and a strong
supporter of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and the democracy movement in Burma,” he
added, using the Burmese honorific out of respect for the opposition
leader and Nobel laureate.

The coalition was looking specifically to the Asean Intergovernmental
Commission on Human Rights (AICHR) to look into the human right situation
in Burma and establish stronger mechanisms for the protection of human
rights, he said.

The Philippines government had strongly denounced the elections to be held
this year by the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC), the Burmese
ruling junta’s name for itself. Burma’s main opposition party, the
National League for Democracy (NLD) has boycotted the polls as electoral
laws announced in March effectively banned leader Suu Kyi and thousands of
other political prisoners from taking part.

“We want the Philippine government to run with the Asean countries towards
denouncing the election signed in by the SPDC 
 and to call for a
‘no-election’ policy urging for complete change,” Bans said. He added that
the coalition called especially for the “release of all political
prisoners including Daw Suu, cessation of the brutality against ethnic
minorities and a review of the 2008 constitution”.

Philippine Foreign Secretary Alberto Romulo made a call in early January
during the Asean foreign ministers’ meeting in Da Nang, Vietnam, for the
regime to release Suu Kyi along with the other political prisoners to make
the elections free and fair. He said otherwise the polls would be a mere
imitation of Burma’s “road map to democracy”.

Bans said that as Aquino had signalled plans to retain foreign minister
Romulo, who had expressed a strong position for democratisation in Burma,
he thought it likely that the Aquino government could be engaged along
similar policy lines.

If the new president’s inaugural address is an accurate guide, with his
calls for a new era of good governance, interactivity with the people and
freedom from corruption, Burmese people might benefit from policies under
Aquino.

____________________________________
INTERNATIONAL

July 1, Agence France-Press
US to extend Burma import ban

A key US senate panel voted overwhelmingly Wednesday to renew for one year
a ban on imports from Burma over alleged human rights abuses by its
military rulers.

The Senate Finance Committee voted 22-1 to extend the sanctions, as has
been done each year under a law passed in 2003. The measure still needs
approval from the full senate as well as the House of Representatives.

Democratic senator Max Baucus, the panel’s chairman, said the ban applied
“necessary pressure on the Burmese junta to stop its gross mistreatment of
the Burmese people and abide by international human rights standards.”

“As long as the Burmese junta continues to abuse and suppress its people,
the United States needs to continue to join our trading partners in
standing up for the Burmese people and supporting human rights,” he said
in a statement.

The “Burmese Freedom and Democracy Act of 2003″ imposes a ban on
Burmese imports unless the US president certifies that the country has
taken steps toward democratic reforms and to help fight international drug
smuggling.

____________________________________
OPINION / OTHER

July 1, Irrawaddy
To be Burma's president or army chief? - Khin Maung Tint and Aung Moe Zaw

Halfway through 2010 and  the date for Burma's election has not yet been
set. The signs seem to suggest that two years after the first announcement
the regime will call a snap election, if they call anything at all.

The election, when or if it is held, will bring change. It will change the
leadership within the army and it might even stir conflict within the
ranks. Even such a  limited cosmetic change appears to be a cause of great
angst for Sen-Gen Than Shwe. And that's why he hesitates.

In Burmese politics today, the chief of the armed forces is the one who
holds  absolute power. Snr-Gen Than Shwe is No. 1, and he will hold on to
power with an iron grip.  As long as he has power, he will use it to
achieve his goal.  His words, as a Burmese proverb goes, can kill the
fire.

According to the Constitution, in post-election Burma, the army chief will
continue to be the major power holder. Than Shwe has the power to choose:
to be president or army chief.

Than Shwe, now  in his late-70s, could find the choice difficult.

According to the seniority system in the Burmese army, Vice Sen-Gen Maung
Aye should be the next chief of the armed forces, but Gen Thura Shwe Mahn
could also be in line since Maung Aye is in his late 70s.

Lt-Gen Myint Swe and  Lt-Gen Tin Aye of the defense ministry may also hope
to be No 1.

What is clear in Burma is that there are many more generals who have
dreams of being army chief than those who dream of becoming the country's
president. This is a direct result of the 2008 Constitution which was
written to keep the army chief and his military clique in power.

If Than Shwe chooses himself as the country's next president, will he be
able to continue to control the army as late dictator Gen Ne Win managed
to do during the Burmese Socialist Programme Party? The question is: Are
his fellow generals loyal to him?

Will Maung Aye, Shwe Mahn, and Myint Swe continue to obey Than Shwe if  he
leaves the army to be the country's president?  Will enemies from within
the army appear at that point? Than Shwe did after all bring down the
former dictator Gen Ne Win and then, only six years ago, he put one of the
most powerful men in Burma, Gen Khin Nyunt, behind bars.

There may be supporters  of these deposed figures lurking in the
background, ready to emerge when Than Shwe and his fellow generals take
off their army uniforms.

Even though both the president and the next army chief will be selected by
Than Shwe, he cannot be certain of the loyalty of the army chief.

Perhaps the election date has not been announced because Than Shwe cannot
decide on the next army chief and the next president from within his own
elite circle. The power to set the date is purely in his hands. There is
no opposition to protest the date. There is no need for a sudden, snap
election or for the lack of a decision.

But, for Than Shwe and his clique, the decision is one that could
determine their common fate. It is a dilemma of their own making, the very
2008 Constitution which they wrote and which could bring about their own
demise, if the wrong decision is made.

One thing is sure now, they have to do something. Having proffered an
election, they have to set a date. But the date will only be set after
Than Shwe has decided whether to choose himself as the next country's
president and who to select to lead the army.

The decision may set off a course of events which could lead to Than Shwe
losing his position to another dictator. He might then face the same fate
as Gen Ne Win.

Holding proper talks with Daw Aung San Suu Kyi would certainly have been a
better path to choose for himself, his military clique and for the country
as a whole.

Khin Maung Tint and Aung Moe Zaw are the general secretary and chairperson
of  the Democratic Party for a New Society (DPNS), which is a Burmese
political party based in exile.

____________________________________
INTERVIEWS

July 1, Irrawaddy
Unmasking Than Shwe - Simon Roughneen

Mysterious, reclusive, brutal, misunderstood, superstitious, power-mad.
These are words used to describe Burma's ruling strongman, Sen-Gen Than
Shwe. Less is know about this man than almost any other head of
government, perhaps even less than Kim Jong Il, the apparently ailing
ruler of North Korea and Than Shwe's alleged nuclear collaborator.

Benedict Rogers' new biography, “Than Shwe: Unmasking Burma's Tyrant,” is
the first detailed  study of the man whose iron fist rules Burma.

Question. Your book is being published as Burma gears up for what
opposition and exiled Burmese are calling sham elections or military
elections. Some voices in the international community, perhaps describing
themselves as foreign policy "realists," have are more positive on the
process, saying that it could potentially lead to some sort of
democratization sometime in the future. Does this square with Than Shwe's
way of seeing the world, and his vision for Burma in the future?

Answer. Than Shwe's intentions are to safeguard his legacy and protect
himself, his family and cronies. He has absolutely no intention at all of
any meaningful reform or democratization. However, there can and should be
a difference between what we in the international community do and what
people inside Burma do. I have no respect at all for those in the
international community who have a rose-tinted view of what these
elections mean. All of us should be in no doubt that this is a discredited
and illegitimate process. However, I do understand and respect why some
Burmese feel that they have no alternative but to make the best out of it.
Some Burmese will want to take part and some will not, and I respect both
points of view. But in the international community we have to be clear
that it offers no hope for change.

Q. In its latest edition, Foreign Policy listed Than Shwe as third from
bottom in its "Worst of the Worst" ranking of dictators around the world.
Does what you found out in the course of your research tally with such a
ranking?

A. Yes, that sounds about right. I think it would think it is a pretty
close race between Than Shwe and Mugabe for second place, behind Kim Jong
Il.

Q. In practice, researching and writing a biography such as this must be
very challenging, given that the subject is a reclusive, isolated,
apparently paranoid dictator, hidden in his jungle capital. Can you tell
us how you dealt with these obstacles?

A. In the introduction I am up front about the limitations of the book,
that I could not get close to Than Shwe and his inner circle . However, I
did have access to a  number of army defectors who have known him and
worked with him at various stages. I had access to international diplomats
who had access to him and had dealings with him. While I would never claim
that this is the definitive life story of Than Shwe, I can say that I have
uncovered and brought to light a comprehensive perspective on the man, and
one that has not been published to date. I have been pleasantly encouraged
by the reviews so far. Bertil Linter can be quite a tough critic, but he
has written a very generous review of the book and that is very
encouraging.

Q. Allegations about Burma's nuclear program hit the headlines recently
after an army defector provided classified information to DVB, later
broadcast on al-Jazeera. Are there more defectors waiting to tell their
story, to tell more about how things are inside Burma? How is the mood and
morale within the junta's army?

A. Over the 10 years or so that I have been working on Burma, I have met
many defectors. One defector who helped me a lot with the book is in touch
with former colleagues inside Burma and the army. The mood inside the army
is very much one of low morale and a desire to defect or at least leak
information to people outside, which might in turn undermine the regime.
The only thing holding back many potential defectors is the insecurity of
their position in neighboring countries, particularly Thailand. If more
was done by the international community to ensure that  defectors could
have place of safety, then more defections would happen and more
information would come out.

Q. What specifically are the issues,  challenges and dilemmas for a
potential defector as he or she weighs-up such a momentous decision?

A. Thailand and other neighbors have an agreement with the regime to
return any Burmese soldiers or officers they find, and this makes any
defector vulnerable to deportation, and the consequences once he or she is
returned to Burma. Otherwise, defectors who come out and are outspoken
face attack, assassination or can be disappeared by agents of the  regime,
for examples in places like Mae Sot near the Thai-Burma border. Another
barrier is the attitude of the international community, which has a more
complex approach to defectors than other asylum seekers, and countries are
generally much more reluctant to accept defectors. Strangely though, when
people defect through embassies, it seems to be much easier than if some
one tries to defect through Thailand for example.

Q. Than Shwe seems to be trying to re-brand his regime with allusions or
references to Burma's ancient kings and kingdoms, hinting at his own
supposed links to a mythologized past. Is Than Shwe a reincarnation of
Burma's long-dead kings?

A. Than Shwe sees himself as a sort of warrior-king, a modern version of
those figures from Burma's history. For example, Burma's kings liked to
build and establish new capitals for themselves, something that he has
replicated by building a new capital in Naypidaw, which of course means
"Seat of Kings" in Burmese. Though of course he has other reasons for
building the new capital—be that paranoia about another uprising in Burma,
the need to hide military facilities, fear of an attack from a foreign
power. As irrational as some of this might be, these are factors in his
thinking.

Q. Can you tell us more about Than Shwe's psychology of rule? He is
rumored to be heavily influenced by astrology and highly superstitious. Is
this the case?

A. Astrology is a factor, but it conditions his thinking more about the
timing of events, the duration of prison sentences, for example, than it
is an over-arching or guiding principle. Certain events are timed to run
on given auspicious dates, but that does not mean that Than Shwe is merely
a crazed superstitious tyrant, and we must not fall into the trap of
stereotyping him or underestimating him. He is brutally clever and adept
at divide and rule. Astrology is arguably more important in his wife's way
of thinking than in his own.

Q. How strong an influence is his wife on him personally and politically?
Is she a Lady Macbeth figure or is that an overstatement?

A. First, the limitations of how close I could get to Than Shwe come into
play here. I wasn't a fly on the wall in their home, and that is an
understatement! But she does have some influence, particularly when it
comes to Aung San Suu Kyi. Daw Kyaing Kyaing dislikes her as much, if not
more, than her husband.

Q. Can you tell us more about that dislike? Is it personal, political, or
a mixture?

A. It is a combination. Politically she represents a challenge to Than
Shwe, who sees himself as the elderly father figure in ruling his country.
She is younger and upsets that patriarchal vision. She is also everything,
 frankly, that Daw Kyaing Kyaing is not: she is beautiful, internationally
savvy, cultured, well-educated.

Q. As well as your role as East Asia specialist with Christian Solidarity
Worldwide, you work closely with the Conservative Party in the UK, which
recently returned to power. First, has Prime Minister David Cameron or
Foreign Secretary William Hague read your book? Secondly, how do you hope
it will influence policy in the UK and internationally.

A. Not that I am aware of, but I hope they will. The Speaker of the House
of Commons has kindly agreed to speak at the upcoming UK launch of the
book which I am looking forward to very much. I hope that the book will
serve as a wake-up call for those who, as I said already, take a somewhat
benign or falsely optimistic view of what the scheduled elections mean for
Burma.

I also outline that I believe, like many others, that there should be a
commission of inquiry into crimes against humanity in Burma and Than
Shwe's role. In terms of British policy, I do not anticipate much
difference from the previous government. William Hague has already shown a
strong commitment to Burma advocacy while in opposition, inviting Zoya
Phan to address the Tory Party conference, as well as speaking at her book
launch in London. Both David Cameron and William Hague have met with Charm
Tong. David Cameron's chief-of-staff is a long-time friend of Aung San Suu
Kyi.  I think, however, that leadership on Burma will come from the
Foreign Secretary rather than the prime minister, unlike under Labour
where Gordon Brown spoke out on Burma himself.

I want to conclude by saying that I hope the book will dispel beyond doubt
the myth that Than Shwe is someone we can just sit down and have a cup of
tea with, and launch into a rational discussion of how to reform his
country. He understands one word, one concept—that is force. I am not
advocating nor do I believe in the use of military force, nor do I believe
in isolating the regime. We have to remain aware of the nature of the man
who rules Burma, and his unwillingness to listen to reason. The
international community needs to come together on a strategic policy to
bring targeted pressure and targeted engagement to bear on Than Shwe,
including a commission of inquiry, and if my book can contribute to
bringing this about, or at least a better understanding of why this is
necessary, then it will have achieved something.