BurmaNet News, July 17 - 19, 2010

[Editor]

July 17 – 19, 2010 Issue #4002


INSIDE BURMA
DPA: Disbanded but defiant, Myanmar opposition marks Martyrs' Day
Irrawaddy: Martyrs' Day tributes censored
DVB: PM’s party ‘to inherit’ USDA funds

ON THE BORDER
DPA: Rights groups petition Thai premier over migrant labour rackets

BUSINESS / TRADE
Business Standard (India): Myanmar dictator to get warm welcome in India
Mizzima News: Swiss deny Transocean’s work for drug lords violated sanctions
Bangkok Post: Thailand tightens ties with Myanmar

ASEAN
AFP: Free vote needed in Myanmar: Asian security forum
Reuters: North Korea and Myanmar top agenda for Asia security meet

INTERNATIONAL
Reuters: UK minister doubts Myanmar election will be fair

OPINION / OTHER
Bangkok Post: Junta's dream is the world's nightmare – Aung Zaw
DVB: Preventing genocide in Burma – Alex Zucker

PRESS RELEASE
Amnesty International (UK): Myanmar elections will test ASEAN’s credibility





____________________________________
INSIDE BURMA

July 19, Deutsche Presse-Agentur
Disbanded but defiant, Myanmar opposition marks Martyrs' Day

Yangon, Myanmar — Myanmar’s officially defunct opposition party the
National League for Democracy (NLD) on Monday defied security laws to mark
Martyrs’ Day, an anniversary of particular significance for its leader,
Aung San Suu Kyi.

More than 300 former NLD members gathered at the house of the ex—vice
chairman Tin Oo to commemorate the occasion, while the party’s youth wing
laid a wreath at the Martyrs’ Mausoleum in Yangon.

Since its founding in 1989, the NLD has commemorated Martyrs’ Day, which
marks the assassination of independence hero General Aung San and eight
other leading politicians on July 19, 1947.

His daughter, Nobel peace laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, has led the NLD for
the last 21 years, 15 of them under house arrest, and become a democracy
icon in her country and beyond.

“Daw (Madame) Aung San Suu Kyi will never die and neither will the NLD,”
Mr. Tin Oo said at the ceremony.

The gathering defied a ban on political gatherings imposed by Myanmar’s
military regime, but no arrests were made.

The NLD was officially dissolved as a political entity on May 6, for
failing to register for the general election planned for an unscheduled
date later this year.

On March 29, the NLD executive committee voted not to contest the polls in
protest at a regulation that would have forced it to expel secretary
general Suu Kyi.

The junta passed a law earlier in March prohibiting registered parties
from having prisoners serving sentences among its members. Ms. Suu Kyi is
currently serving an 18—month house arrest sentence. Rather than expel
her, the NLD decided not to register for the election, effectively signing
its own dissolution.

The NLD won the last election in 1990 by a landslide, but was barred from
power by the junta.

Ms. Suu Kyi is still widely recognized by the international community as
the leader of Myanmar’s political opposition. The country has been under
military rule since 1962. A new constitution passed in 2008 cemented
military control over any elected future government.

____________________________________

July 19, Irrawaddy
Martyrs' Day tributes censored – Ko Htwe

Burma's press censorship board, the Press Scrutiny and Registration
Division, has censored all articles in tribute to Martyrs' Day heroes, say
Rangoon journalists.

A Rangoon-based news journal editor told The Irrawaddy on Monday that
“Articles about Martyrs’ Day were rejected, and we can only publish the
fact of the anniversary.”

Martyrs Day commemorates the anniversary of the assassination of nine
heroes of Burma’s independence movement—including Gen. Aung San—on July
19, 1947, just six months before Burma regained its independence from
Britain.

Aung San—the father of detained pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi—is
considered the father of Burmese independence. He led the fight for
colonial liberation from Britain, which had ruled Burma since 1885.

After 1996, state-run newspapers stopped publishing Gen. Aung San's
speeches in the run-up to July 19 because the regime wanted to lessen the
influence of Suu Kyi. They also stopped sponsoring essay, short story and
poem contests across the country to commemorate Martys' Day.

Observers said that the military government is trying to play down the
image of Aung San and other heroes of the independence movement.

“We can use a photograph of Gen. Aung San but we cannot publish detailed
articles and reviews about Martyr’s day,” said another Rangoon editor.

Meanwhile, “Myoe Sett Hline,” or “Generation Wave (GW),” distributed 14
poems on the Internet to coincide with the anniversary. GW, formed by
young activists, secretly records and distributes anti-government music
albums across Burma. It claims allegiance to no political party or
movement, although its members have one thing in common, a deep respect
for pro-democracy leader Suu Kyi.

GW’s co-founder, Zay Yar Thaw, a member of the group ACID which introduced
hip-hop to Burma, was arrested and is serving a long jail term. About 30
other GW members have also been imprisoned.

Speaking to The Irrawaddy on Monday, spokesman Pyae Sone Win said, “We
want young people to know about Martyr’s Day so we distributed the poems
through e-mail, because most young people, especially students, casn use
the Internet.”

GW will try to distribute the poems inside Burma next month, Pyae Sone Win
said.

____________________________________

July 19, Democratic Voice of Burma
PM’s party ‘to inherit’ USDA funds – Aye Nai

Property and funds belonging to the recently-disbanded Union Solidarity
and Development Association (USDA) will be transferred to the party headed
by Burma’s prime minister.

The elections war chest of the Union Solidarity and Development Party
(USDP) is likely to swell following the transfer: the USDA, a social
organisation that has acted as the civilian arm of the ruling junta in
Burma, owns swathes of property across the country and its vast membership
base has generated sizeable wealth.

Its dissolution 17 years after it was formed followed calls by candidates
competing in the elections this year for Thein Sein’s party to make clear
its independence from the controversial USDA. Aside from the similarity of
the names, senior USDA officials hold close relations with junta
ministers, while junta chief Than Shwe, second-in-command Maung Aye and
Prime Minister Thein Sein are members of the group’s Central Panel of
Patrons.

Phyo Min Thein, head of the Union Democratic Party (UDP), said that Thein
Sein’s party will inherit USDA property, despite the “funds of the USDA
[belonging] to the state and the people”.

“The USDA was founded with the goal of undertaking duties of the nation
and it was led by the leaders of the nation. For a political party to be
making use of such funds is tantamount to violating electoral laws as well
as other existing laws.”

His concerns were echoed by U Myo, legal analyst with the exiled Burma
Lawyers Council, who said that the USDA “had been making use of
state-owned buildings, cars, and facilities before it was dissolved”.

“Just observe the rights that [the USDP] has been getting and the rights
that other political parties get. The political parties do not have the
rights the USDP is enjoying. It is unfair.”

Election campaigning by the USDP has been boosted by apparent favouring by
the Election Commission (EC), which turned a blind eye to early canvassing
by USDP candidates and recruitment of members.

If reports about the property and financial transfers are true, it would
appear to show outright government support for the USDP and add further
controversy to what critics have already decried as a sham election.

A USDA official told DVB however that no transfer of property or funds has
yet take place, while USDA headquarters and lower-level offices said they
are still operating because there had been no directive from senior
officials to close.

Rumours are also circulating that the USDA has submitted application to
Burma’s home ministry to reform as a non-governmental organisation under a
new name, although this has not been confirmed.

____________________________________

July 19, Democratic Voice of Burma
Farmers to sue junta crony’s Yuzana Company if talks fail – Phanida

Chiang Mai – Farmers in the northern Burmese state of Kachin are preparing
to sue a company with close ties to Burma’s ruling military junta for
confiscating family-owned land, the farmers said.

The lawsuit against Yuzana Company, owned by junta-linked tycoon Htay
Myint, was to be filed because the firm had confiscated a total of 1,038
acres (420 hectares) held by farmers in Warazuap, Aungra, Sharuzuap,
Bangkok and Namsan villages in Phakant, Moenhyin District in Kachin State
for more than three years, they said.

The company had failed to seek consent for the confiscation nor had it
offered compensation for losses of their mostly cassava crops, the farmers
said.

Farmers petitioned Myitkyina Court for redress on Friday, but a Judge Tuja
proposed they negotiate with the company through the Kachin State Peace
and Development Council, but no date had been set for talks, the farmers’
lawyer Myint Thwin said.

If the negotiations failed, the farmers would sue the company under
section 19 of one of the agricultural acts and section 13(3) of the Burma
Laws Act, and claim 80 million Kyats (US$80,000) in compensation, the
lawyer said.

“It is a civil compensation suit. If someone is treated unfairly and loses
something, he or she can charge the cheat”, he told Mizzima.

No response has been received to complaints filed about the land grabs to
the peace and development councils of Phakant Township, Moenhyin District
and Kachin State and Burmese junta leader Senior General Than Shwe, the
farmers said.

“The Yuzana Company has been cheating us for more than three years. Now,
we don’t have farmlands to cultivate crops,” a farmer said on condition of
anonymity. “And they have done nothing for it. That’s why we are trying to
file the lawsuit.”

In Phakant Township, there are 2527 acres of paddy fields, 997 acres of
crops, and 441 acres of gardens, so the total is 3965 farmlands, according
to the land office at Phakant Township.

Yuzana chairman Htay Myint is one of the wealthiest businessmen in Burma
and hails from southern Burma. Exile media reports say he has been or
remains president of the Construction Owners’ Association, the Fishing
Vessel Owners’ Association and the Myanmar Project Association, and is the
owner of one of Myanmar’s biggest supermarket, hotel and real estate
conglomerates.

According to Burma analyst Bertil Lintner, his junta contacts were
strongest with former prime minister General Khin Nyunt, who was ousted in
a purge in October 2004. “But the fact that Yuzana is still doing booming
business in Burma indicates that he must have other high-level contacts as
well,” he wrote in the Asia Times.

Htay Myint and Yuzana are both on the US Treasury’s Office of Foreign
Assets Control sanctions list as they conduct business with the junta, and
are therefore complicit in the ruling Burmese military government’s
large-scale repression of the democratic opposition in Burma, among many
other abuses.

____________________________________
ON THE BORDER

July 19, Deutsche Presse-Agentur
Rights groups petition Thai premier over migrant labour rackets

Bangkok – Labour rights groups on Monday petitioned the Thai government to
investigate reports that deported Burmese migrant labourers were being
subject to extortion rackets on the Thai-Myanmar border.

About 50 activists handed the petition to the office of Prime Minister
Abhisit Vejjajiva, demanding he immediately investigate claims that the
Democratic Karen Buddhist Army (DKBA), a border guard under the Myanmar
military, was extorting payments from unregistered labourers who are being
deported by the thousands.

"The Royal Thai Government should impartially investigate allegations of
human rights abuses against migrants and punish officials or person found
to be involved," said the letter, signed by the Human Rights and
Development Foundation, the Thai Labour Solidarity Committee and State
Enterprise Workers Relations Committee and co-signed by 24 international
and local groups.

Also the government should "cease all deportations" of migrants to Burma
until the investigation is concluded and steps are taken to ensure future
deportations are conducted safely, the petition said. According to labour
activists in Mae Sot, a Thai-Myanmar border crossing, hundreds of illegal
labourers are deported daily unofficially across the Moei River to a
checkpoint inside Myanmar controlled by the DKBA, which charges the
returnees a 1,200-baht (37.50-dollar) re-entry fee.

There have been reports that deportees who cannot pay the fees have been
kept in detention for days until they pay up. Others are forced to work to
pay off the fee.

The deportations are part of the Thai government's latest effort to crack
down on more than 1 million undocumented migrant workers from Cambodia,
Laos and Myanmar.

Criticized for turning a blind eye to exploitation of this migrant labour
force by employers and human traffickers, the Thai government has provided
semi-legal status for at least some of them.

All migrant workers from Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar had been given until
March 31 to register for legal status, part of a new policy to cooperate
with the neighbouring governments in providing alien labourers with work
permits.

According the Thai Labour Ministry, 812,984 Burmese have registered under
the programme, but only 80,435 have been approved by the Myanmar
government. Thousands more have refused to apply for fear Myanmar
authorities will extort money from their relatives at home.

____________________________________
BUSINESS / TRADE

July 19, Business Standard (India)
Myanmar dictator to get warm welcome in India – Jyoti Malhotra

New Delhi – A month and a half after Chinese premier Wen Jiabao travelled
to Myanmar to meet the military leadership and reaffirm traditional “pauk
phaw” (friendship), that country’s top general, Than Shwe is visiting
India from July 25-29.

Interestingly, Gen. Than Shwe will begin his Indian journey in Bodh Gaya,
where he will spend time praying and meditating around the Buddhist icons
associated with the Buddha’s attainment of nirvana. The devout general
will then travel to New Delhi for two days to meet the top Indian
leadership led by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and onwards to Hyderabad
to take a first-hand look at IT (information technology) -related and
pharmaceutical projects that he wants India to assist his country with.

General Than’s visit caps an annual string of high-level exchanges between
India and Myanmar over the last decade before Myanmar goes to the polls in
November, for the first time in 20 years. The general himself had come to
India in 2004, followed by a visit by former president A P J Abdul Kalam
to Myanmar in 2006, after which Myanmar’s second most important general,
Maung Aye, came to India in 2008 (he had earlier visited in 2002), while
Vice-President Hamid Ansari went to Naypidaw in 2009.

The visit confirms India’s foreign policy re-orientation as a “pragmatic
state,” in pursuit of the belief that New Delhi must deal with all its
neighbours “in keeping with the way things are, rather than how they want
it to be”.

Foreign Office sources shrugged off the characterisation by the
prestigious Foreign Policy newsmagazine (a division of Washington Post and
Newsweek) of Gen Than Shwe as the “third worst dictator in the world”,
after Kim Jong-il of North Korea and Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe.

“If India can deal with Pakistan which has just emerged from a military
dictatorship, but baulks at taking action against India-related terrorism,
India can certainly talk to a dictator in the east which is willing to
look at India’s strategic and economic interests,” an official source said
on the condition of anonymity.


>From the manufacture of Tata trucks as part of the $20-million credit line

to the 2007 award of the multi-modal Kaladan project to Essar for Rs 535
crore — India was given the right to “build, operate and use” the Sittwe
port on the Arakan coast and make the Kaladan river navigable all the way
up to the adjoining Indian state of Mizoram — India’s footprint in Myanmar
has been increasing significantly in recent years.

The Kaladan project, expected to be ready by 2013, will establish an
Indian presence on the Bay of Bengal, allowing much closer access to the
north-eastern states with Bangladesh’s Sheikh Hasina government also
allowing India to develop the Chittagong port, India’s presence in that
region will likely be enhanced.

Even when India lost out to China in the laying of an oil and gas pipeline
from the Shwe gas fields (bigger than any gas field in India) in 2004 —
because Bangladesh refused transit, following which Myanmar offered the
fields on a 30-year lease to a Chinese consortium — India’s Oil & Natural
Gas Corporation continued to have a 30 per cent stake in the field.

“Relations between India, Myanmar and China are not a zero-sum game,” an
official pointed out, conceding that India had lost ground on this matter.
But he pointed out that when the gas begins to flow from the Kyaukpu deep
sea port on Myanmar’s Arakan coast in the Bay of Bengal all the way to
Kunming in China’s southern Yunnan province, as much as 12 billion cubic
metres annually, India’s $1 billion investment by ONGC would “certainly
yield a profit.”

Smiling, the official added, “If Myanmar is the gateway to India’s ‘Look
East’ policy, and if the Than Shwe visit underlines Myanmar’s interest in
using India as a counterpoise to China, equally Myanmar is a country where
India and China can meet in a win-win partnership.”

In fact, Myanmar withdrew an Indian offer to build the Tamanthi
hydro-electric project on the Chhindwin river because of inordinate delays
by NHPC, offering it to the Swiss and the South Koreans. But when they
refused the bait, the Myanmarese offered it back to NHPC last year, on the
condition that a detailed project report be submitted in 12 months.

Meanwhile, New Delhi continues to push transport links between Mizoram
(from Tamu to Kalewa, via Kalemyo, besides sections at Rhi-Tidim, where
Mizos believe their souls come to rest, and Rhi-Falam) and Nagaland. An
optical fibre link has been laid from Mandalay to Yangon and onward to
Kolkata, an IT centre was set up last as was an industrial training
centre.

But more than anything else, it is perhaps the setting up of a facility to
manufacture Tata trucks in Monywa, a major Buddhist pilgrimate site, that
bridges the distance between the ancient relationship between India and
Burma and India and Myanmar.

For the first time in recent decades, Myanmar’s traffic, dominated by
Chinese-built trucks and buses, will be sprinkled with Indian-built
trucks.

Indian officials admitted that the government had failed to take advantage
of the opening of Myanmar in the last decade, but insisted it was “better
to be late than never”.

Meanwhile, Myanmar’s November elections are also being closely watched in
New Delhi as elsewhere in the world, not only because it is rumoured that
Than Shwe and his number two general, Maung Aye, may step down, but also
because changes in the State Peace & Development Council, as the military
junta describes itself, will be an indication of future power structures.

Jim Della-Giacoma, director of the International Crisis Group’s South-East
Asia Project, agreed that the results of the elections will be “seriously
flawed,” but also pointed out that for a “country silenced for 20 years,
an imperfect vote will be better than no election at all. The
international community should be ready to take advantage of this,
regardless of who’s in power,” he added.

Indian officials point out that New Delhi is doing precisely that. Even
though the military leadership peremptorily dispensed with Aung San Suu
Kyi when she won a landslide victory in the elections 20 years ago,
putting her under house arrest, Than Shwe and his compatriots have
succeeded in cutting peace deals with 17 out of 18 armed ethnic groups in
Myanmar — many of which tribes also live in India.

“Just like India, Myanmar has a troubled periphery; we understand what
they do,” the Indian official added.

____________________________________

July 19, Mizzima News
Swiss deny Transocean’s work for drug lords violated sanctions – Thomas
Maung Shwe

The Swiss government’s sanctions unit deputy chief has told Mizzima that
Swiss-American firm Transocean did not violate Switzerland’s Burma
sanctions last year when the firm did exploratory drilling work for a
group that includes a company controlled by accused drug lord, money
launderer and junta crony businessman Stephen Law.

The statement came despite the presence of Asia World chief Law, his wife
and his father on the Swiss government’s sanctions blacklist.

Mizzima reported in May that Transocean’s November 2009 8-K filing with
the US stock-market regulator showed that CNOOC, a state-owned Chinese
firm partnered with Stephen Law in exploring Burma’s gas fields hired
Transocean to operate in Burmese waters last year in blocks co-owned by
CNOOC and the Law drug-trafficking family.

According to the CNOOC website, all of its stakes in Burma’s gas industry
are held in partnership with China Focus Development (formerly known as
Golden Aaron) and China Global Construction, with CNOOC as the operator.
China Focus is a privately owned Singapore-registered firm whose sole
shareholders are Stephen Law and his wife Ng Sor Hong, aka Cynthia Ng. The
US, EU and Swiss sanctions list show Ng Sor Hong to be chief executive of
the firm, which is also among more than a dozen companies controlled by
Law on the US government’s blacklist of banned Burma-related entities.

Thomas Graf, deputy dead of the Swiss government’s sanctions task force
replied in an e-mail to a Mizzima query on the matter that Transocean had
not violated the sanctions because it was hired by CNOOC a Chinese firm
not on the sanctions list.

In the detailed response, Graf also told Mizzima that although Golden
Aaron (the former name of China Focus) was mentioned in the Swiss
sanctions list it only appeared under the blacklisted individuals section
as “identifying information for Ms. Ng Sor Hong”, the firm’s chief
executive and Stephen’s Law’s spouse.  Both the old and new name of the
firm were absent from the list of blacklisted entities, which does however
include several other firms controlled by the Law family.

While the Swiss sanctions list does not bar target firm China Focus both
the Eurpean Union and US sanctions blacklist the Singaporean firm. Mizzima
has so far been unable to learn why the firm is not also on the Swiss
sanctions list when other Law firms targeted by the EU and the US are also
targeted by the Swiss.

While Transocean denies violating US sanctions, critics claim firm is
being misleading.

The New York Times reported on July 7 Transocean had claimed in a
statement that the firm had not violated US sanctions on Burma because
neither Stephen Law nor his father’s names appeared on their contract with
CNOOC. The statement failed however to confirm or deny whether the
notorious money-launderers’s wife, Ng Sor Hong, or the firm she heads,
China Focus, appeared on Transocean’s contract.

Human rights activist Wong Aung of the Shwe Gas Movement told Mizzima that
Transocean’s statement was misleading. “The statement to The New York
Times only says that Stephen Law and his father weren’t mentioned in the
CNOOC Burma contract. It’s interesting that in their statement the firm
chose not to disclose whether the contract mentions Law’s wife Ng Sor Hong
and the company she heads that co-owns the rights to the gas block with
CNOOC.

“It’s extremely unlikely that such a contract would not state who co-owns
the gas rights to the area where the drilling would occur. The US and
Swiss government must force Transocean to fully disclose the text of this
contract,” Wong Aung said.

The company’s statement to the Times also included the cryptic claim that:
“No Transocean affiliate that is subject to the US ban has ever done
business in Myanmar [Burma].” As Transocean is now headquartered in
landlocked Switzerland and the Actinia rig sent to drill for CNOOC is
registered in Panama, it is unclear whether the firm is in fact subject to
any US sanctions.

Mizzima’s attempts to reach Transocean to elaborate on this were
unsuccessful.

Wong Aung is disturbed by Transocean’s apparently successful attempt to
avoid American sanctions.

“Transocean, a company that employs thousands of people, is reported to
have less than a dozen staff at its so-called headquarters in Switzerland,
most of the members of the board of directors are American and it’s listed
on the US stock exchange. A large segment of the firm’s business is in the
US and really the firm is still American,” he said.

“What’s stopping other American firms that want to do business in Burma
from hiring a few people offshore to have a company headquarters in a
regulatory black hole like the Cayman Islands or the British Virgin
Islands. It makes a joke of American attempts to target one of Burma’s
most infamous narco tycoons.”

Transocean has been under increasing scrutiny following a massive
explosion that destroyed the firm’s rig operated by BP in the Gulf of
Mexico this year. The disaster killed several Transocean employees and
caused one of the world’s worst oil spills. In its article in July, which
reported on the firm’s business dealings with one of Burma’s richest
drug-dealing families (information first reported by Mizzima some six
weeks earlier) The New York Times reported that Transocean had skirted
American sanctions against Syria and Iran. The firm is also under
investigation in Norway for tax fraud and was cited by a Norwegian board
of inquiry for committing errors that led to the death of eight employees
off the coast of Scotland in 2007.

Law’s Sino-Burmese father Lao Sit Han, aka Lo Hsing Han, is believed by US
drug-trafficking analysts to have controlled one of Southeast Asia’s
best-armed narcotics militias during the 1970’s.

When the US Treasury department added Stephen Law and his family to its
sanctions list in February, 2008, it announced: “In addition to their
support for the Burmese regime, Steven Law and Lo Hsing Han have a history
of involvement in illicit activities.”

“Lo Hsing Han, known as the ‘Godfather of Heroin’, has been one of the
world’s key heroin traffickers dating back to the early 1970s. Steven Law
joined his father’s drug empire in the 1990s and has since become one of
the wealthiest individuals in Burma,” the Treasury statement said.

____________________________________

July 17, Bangkok Post
Thailand tightens ties with Myanmar

The federation of Thai Industries (FTI) and leading Thai businessmen on
Saturday met with the Union of Myanmar Federation Chambers of Commerce and
Industry (UMFCCI) at a hotel in Mae Sod to strengthen trade and investment
ties between the two countries, reports said.

Industry Minister Chaiwut Bannawat, who chaired the meeting, said Thailand
and Myanmar have enjoyed good relations for many years and a large number
of Burmese now have worked in industrial plants in Thailand, especially in
Mae Sod.

“The value of border trade between Thailand and Myanmar totaled 148.63
billion baht in 2009. This has encouraged Thai businessmen to look for
ways to invest more in the neighbouring country”, Mr Chaiwut said.

He stated that the Thai government supports Thai investors to invest more
in Myanmar, particularly in the establishment of industrial estates and
the construction of deep sea port there.

FTI chairman Payungsak Chartsutthipol said this meeting will pave ways for
the expansion of cooperation on trade and investment between the two
countries.

According to the chairman, FTI and UMFCCI agreed to join forces in
strengthen ties on trade, agriculture, industrial and energy investment,
transport network linking, tourism, human resources development, public
health and environment.

____________________________________
ASEAN

July 19, Agence France Presse
Free vote needed in Myanmar: Asian security forum

Hanoi — Asia's largest security forum, which includes the United States
and Europe, wants free and fair elections in Myanmar, according to a draft
chairman's statement obtained on Monday.

"The ministers reiterated the importance of holding the general election
in a free, fair, and inclusive manner which would lay the foundation for
the long-term stability and prosperity of Myanmar," says the draft
prepared for foreign ministers of the Association of Southeast Asian
Nations Regional Forum (ARF), which is to meet Friday in Hanoi.

Military-ruled Myanmar, which is under US and European Union sanctions,
has said it will hold its first election in two decades this year. It has
not yet announced a date.

Critics say the poll is a sham designed to legitimise the junta's
half-century grip on power.

ARF ministers welcome ASEAN's readiness to support Myanmar and reaffirmed
their commitment to remain "constructively engaged" with the country, said
the draft prepared by communist Vietnam, which will chair the ARF meeting.

Critics have dismissed the ARF as a "talking shop" with little influence
on the region's many conflicts except as a vehicle for confidence-building
between nations.

The 10 countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)
form the core of the ARF and have a principle of non-interference in each
other's affairs.

Myanmar is a member of ASEAN.
____________________________________

July 19, Reuters
North Korea and Myanmar top agenda for Asia security meet – Jason Szep and
Ambika Ahuja

Hanoi – Tension on the Korean peninsula, elections in military-ruled
Myanmar and the question of whether the former Burma is developing nuclear
arms will top the agenda of meetings of Asian foreign ministers this week
in Vietnam.

Southeast Asian foreign ministers met in Hanoi on Monday to discuss
regional security ahead of talks this week with counterparts from China,
Japan, North and South Korea, the United States, the European Union and
Russia.

Myanmar's foreign minister repeated that the country had no ambition to
become a nuclear power, denying a report published in June by an exile
group that it was trying to develop a secret nuclear program with the
intention of making an atomic bomb.

"Myanmar told the meeting that it's not attempting to procure or develop
nuclear weapons and we thanked them for their clarification on the
matter," said Thani Thongpakdi, a deputy spokesman for the Thai foreign
ministry.

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton arrives on Thursday and will
reinforce Washington's commitment to Asia in the face of rising Chinese
influence and growing tensions with North Korea during two days of
meetings, U.S. officials say.

A copy of a draft statement to be issued by the Association of South East
Asian Nations (ASEAN) said the 10-member group shared "deep concern" at
the sinking of a South Korean warship and growing friction on the Korean
peninsula.

Tension between North and South Korea remains high following the March
sinking of the corvette Cheonan, killing 46 South Korean sailors.
Pyongyang has denied responsibility and escaped censure this month from
the United Nations, which condemned the attack but, under pressure from
China, did not blame North Korea.

"We expressed deep concern over the sinking of (the) ship Cheonan," said
the draft, which also did not blame Pyongyang.

U.S. officials say Clinton is also likely to discuss human rights
concerns, and could touch on prospects for Pacific trade talks that the
Obama administration hopes will open regional markets to more U.S.
exports.

North Korean Foreign Minister Pak Ui-chun will attend Friday's ASEAN
Regional Forum, Asia's largest security dialogue that includes all six
parties in the stalled North Korean nuclear talks -- North and South Korea
and regional powers China, Japan the United States and Russia.

PRESSURE ON MYANMAR

U.S. officials say Clinton will raise concerns about election preparations
in Myanmar, hoping to underscore that the country's military leaders must
be held accountable for the lack of real democratic reform.

Myanmar's Southeast Asian neighbors have urged the junta to hold "free and
fair" elections, expected this year, and to free pro-democracy advocate
Aung San Suu Kyi.

Southeast Asia has been divided over the issue. Early last year some
Southeast Asian countries urged ASEAN to take a tougher stand with a
public appeal calling on the junta to grant an amnesty to Suu Kyi.

That went nowhere. Several ASEAN nations rebuffed it, saying it
contravened the grouping's long-standing non-interference policy in each
others' internal politics. The detention of the Nobel Peace Prize winner,
who has been jailed or under house arrest for 15 of the last 21 years, has
led the West to sharply criticize the former Burma's election plans.

"There will certainly be questions about Myanmar on progress and
preparation for the upcoming elections. But it is unlikely to be strong,
stinging words," Chitriya Pinthong, deputy permanent secretary of
Thailand's foreign ministry, told Reuters.

"Things are moving in a positive direction and we want to engage the
government in a constructive way rather than condemnation even before
elections take place."

The United States is also increasingly concerned about potential links
between Myanmar and North Korea, including reports by an exiled
anti-government group that Myanmar may be harboring nuclear ambitions of
its own, U.S. officials said.

Assistant U.S. Secretary of State Kurt Campbell said the United States
would press Myanmar to implement U.S. Security Council resolutions
tightening sanctions on North Korea but that there were "no plans in the
current climate" for Clinton to meet representatives of either North Korea
or Myanmar in Hanoi.

(Additional reporting by John Ruwitch, Andrew Quinn and Jack Kim; Editing
by Alex Richardson)

____________________________________
INTERNATIONAL

July 19, Reuters
UK minister doubts Myanmar election will be fair – Vithoon Amorn

Bangkok – Britain will regard a general election due later this year in
Myanmar as illegitimate if the military government denies a role to
thousands of political opponents now in prison, a junior minister said on
Sunday.

Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Jeremy Browne said the new British
government supported London's long-standing policy of applying pressure on
Myanmar, also known as Burma, to improve its political and human rights
record.

"The British government remains very disappointed about the past
activities of the regime in Burma. We do not regard the coming election as
a legitimate expression of public opinion," Browne told Reuters after
talks with Thai Foreign Minister Kasit Piromya.

"More than 2,000 political prisoners are being held in Burma, which makes
it impossible for a meaningful election to take place in Burma," he said.

Browne told the British parliament this month that elections in Myanmar
this year could not be viewed as free and fair as long as Nobel peace
laureate Aung San Suu Kyi and other political prisoners remained in
detention.

The military government has yet to set a date for the election.

Suu Kyi has spent 15 of the past 21 years in detention because of her
fight for democracy in the army-ruled country and is under house arrest in
the former capital, Yangon.

Suu Kyi is the daughter of the hero of the country's campaign for
independence from British rule, Aung San. She was first detained in 1989,
a year after she emerged as a champion of political reform during an
unsuccessful, student-led uprising for democracy.

Her party won a landslide election victory in 1990, only to be denied
power by the military.

The election planned for this year will be the first since then, but
critics have already denounced it as a sham that will leave real power
with the military.

Last year, Suu Kyi was found guilty of breaking a draconian security law
after briefly giving shelter to an American intruder after he swam to her
lakeside home. Critics of the generals accused them of trumping up the
charges to sideline Suu Kyi in the run-up to the election.

Commenting on reports North Korea and Myanmar might have been cooperating
on a project to develop nuclear arms, Browne said: "If that is the case,
it is a contravention of international law, and we are very strongly and
emphatically of the view that nuclear proliferation of this type is wrong
and we will express that in the strongest terms at international
institutions."

(Editing by Alan Raybould)

____________________________________
OPINION / OTHER

July 19, Bangkok Post
Junta's dream is the world's nightmare – Aung Zaw

For decades, Burma's ruling regime has been regarded primarily as a menace
to its own people. But with recent reports confirming long-held suspicions
that the junta aspires to establish Burma as Southeast Asia's first
nuclear-armed state, there is now a very real danger that it is emerging
as a threat to the rest of the region.

At the moment, the paranoid generals in Naypyidaw are far from realising
their dream of developing the ultimate deterrent to foreign invasion. But
it would be a mistake to underestimate the regime's determination to
acquire some sort of nuclear weapon, no matter how primitive, with which
to ward off any threat from countries it regards as hostile to its
survival.

Judging from the muted response to recent revelations contained in a
report by the Democratic Voice of Burma (DVB), however, it seems that many
remain unconvinced that the regime's nuclear ambitions represent a
credible threat. Of course, it makes sense to proceed with caution before
jumping to any conclusions; but it would also be a mistake to wait until
it is too late to deal with the eventuality of a nuclear-armed Burma.

The DVB report is hardly the first to present evidence suggesting that the
regime's military ambitions now extend beyond its traditional goal of
crushing perceived threats from within, but it is certainly the most
thorough. Based largely on the testimony of ex-major Sai Thein Win, a
Burmese army defector and weapons expert who smuggled out numerous
photographs and documents to back up his accusations, the report leaves
little room for doubt about the junta's intentions. According to Robert
Kelley, the nuclear scientist and former director of the International
Atomic Energy Agency who authored the report for DVB, the evidence "leads
to only one conclusion: this technology is only for nuclear weapons and
not civilian use or nuclear power".

But even before Sai Thein Win came forward, there was good reason to
suspect that the junta was not satisfied with its 400,000-man army and
impressive armoury of weapons for suppressing the country's dwindling
array of ethnic insurgencies. Indeed, for the past decade at least, it has
sought to strengthen its military might in ways that would serve to
neutralise external as well as internal challenges to its hold on power.

According to Jane's Defense Weekly, the regime first purchased
low-altitude surface-to-air missile systems from Bulgaria and short-range
ballistic missile air defence systems from Russia in 2001. The following
year, according to Burmese defence analyst Maung Aung Myoe in his 2009
book Building the Tatmadaw, it acquired 36D6 radar from Ukraine, designed
to detect air targets at low, medium and high altitudes, and to perform
friend-or-foe identification.

Some analysts attribute the regime's sudden interest in upgrading its
arsenal to a series of border skirmishes with Thai forces in 2001-02, when
Thailand reportedly deployed Suppression of Enemy Air Defence Systems
(Seads) before sending its F-16 jet fighters into border air space,
severely disrupting communication lines between the Burmese army's command
centres and frontline troops.

It is interesting to note how soon the regime's quest for ever more
sophisticated weaponry took it in the direction of North Korea. According
to Maung Aung Myoe, the Burmese generals began secret talks with the
reclusive communist regime to buy Hwasong (Scud-type) missiles as early as
2003. Although it remains unclear if the regime ever actually acquired
these missiles, military analysts note that Burma has received a number of
suspicious shipments from North Korean vessels over the past few years.

This North Korean connection appears to have done more than just provide
the junta with another arms supplier. Increasingly, Naypyidaw seems to be
considering Pyongyang's brand of belligerent diplomacy as the basis for
its foreign policy, possibly as a backup plan to ensure its survival if
the upcoming election and transition to "disciplined democracy" fail to
silence its Western critics.

If Burma does take this route, it would certainly present a real dilemma
for the West. In the past, the regime has attempted to neutralise its
critics by insisting that they choose between supporting the democracy
movement led by Aung San Suu Kyi or promoting the well-being of the masses
by providing aid and lifting sanctions. In the future, the choice could
become even starker: forget Mrs Suu Kyi, or learn to live with a
nuclear-armed Burma.

Some have argued that the West bears some responsibility for pushing the
regime into the arms of North Korea. They point to the fact that in
November 2008, six months after the US, France and Britain sent naval
warships close to Burmese waters with offers of emergency assistance for
survivors of Cyclone Nargis, the junta sent its highest-level delegation
to Pyongyang for secret meetings to discuss a new weapons deal.

But suggestions that the West's actions are the primary inspiration for
the junta's efforts to acquire weapons of mass destruction are misplaced.
The regime has been moving in this direction for years, and it is even
arguable that the protracted process of restoring pseudo-civilian rule has
become little more than a means of buying time for the generals to realise
their grandiose military ambitions.

Seen in this light, the junta's seeming lack of interest in presenting
this year's election as a genuine democratic exercise takes on ominous
significance. In fact, it could mean one of three things. It's possible
that the regime really believes that many in the West are credulous enough
to buy the same empty promises of change once again. Or it could signal
the junta's confidence that Beijing will continue to watch its back
indefinitely, as long as there's something in it for China. Or, most
worryingly, it may be an indication that the generals are more interested
in following Pyongyang's example than in keeping up the pretense of moving
toward democracy.

The first possibility is very real: Many in the West - particularly Europe
- seem deluded enough to believe that the generals really mean it this
time when they say they want to hand over power. The second is also quite
plausible: Beijing continues to offer its staunch support for the regime,
and has even played an important role in cultivating the relationship
between Naypyidaw and Pyongyang (when the two sides formally restored
relations in 2007, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Liu Jianchao said,
"North Korea and Burma are both friendly neighbours of China. We are happy
to see and welcome the improvement of their bilateral ties" - giving no
hint of any concern about the implications for regional stability).

The third possibility, then, is the least likely, especially given the
primitive state of Burma's nuclear programme. At this stage, it is still
in the realm of worst-case scenarios, rather than an imminent reality. But
even this demands a serious response, lest Burma become the next North
Korea.

To ensure that this does not happen, we first need to recognise that
despite their geopolitical similarities as international pariahs operating
within China's sphere of influence, Burma and North Korea are two very
different countries. Although both countries are ruled by ruthless
regimes, Burma still possesses a civil society that still survives even
after nearly 50 years of military rule. Burmese people also have more
contact with the outside world than North Koreans, making them less
susceptible to government propaganda. In fact, popular opposition to the
Burmese junta is almost universal, and even within the military there are
many who would willingly abandon the regime under the right conditions.

It is important for the world to recognise that it cannot allow the
Burmese generals to continue down the path they've taken. Burma is not
North Korea, but the country's military rulers are no less capable than
their fellow despots in Pyongyang of holding their neighbours to ransom if
they believe their own survival is at stake. They have taken the first
steps toward realising their nuclear dream; now the international
community must act to prevent it from becoming a nuclear nightmare for the
rest of us.

Aung Zaw is founder and editor of the Irrawaddy magazine.
http://www.irrawaddy.org
____________________________________

July 19, Democratic Voice of Burma
Preventing genocide in Burma – Alex Zucker

Readers of this website should need no convincing of the seriousness of
ongoing human rights violations against minority ethnic groups in Burma.
Medicins Sans Frontieres has described Burma’s ethnic Rohingya minority
has one of the world populations “most in danger of extinction” and
leading scholars, including William Schabas, president of the
International Association of Genocide Scholars, have suggested that the
Muslim group may be victims of crimes against humanity, a sentiment that
has been echoed by multiple other bodies.

Numerous human rights and legal advocacy groups have similarly said that
Burma’s other ethnic minorities – the Chin, Kachin, Karen, Karenni, Mon,
and Shan – are also seriously threatened by the ruling junta, which has
held power in various forms since 1962.

In the past decade and a half, there has been significant progress in our
understanding of genocide and how to prevent it, mainly as the result of
our failures to do so. One of the most crucial lessons learned from this
bitter experience is that, from the standpoint of saving human lives, the
question of whether or not a situation meets the legal definition of
genocide is beside the point. And the point, for those in the field of
genocide prevention today, is not how to stop genocide once it has begun,
but rather how to prevent it from happening in the first place.

To that end, the Auschwitz Institute for Peace and Reconciliation, based
in New York, operates a genocide prevention program targeting the women
and men in government who shape and implement the policies that determine
whether or not a society will tip over the edge into mass slaughter. Key
to the program is the forging of a community of policymakers to support
one another in their everyday work. Given that some of those who take part
come from countries that are at risk of genocide, or perhaps even in the
midst of one, we do not take a position on whether or not the situation in
any particular country constitutes genocide. To do so would defeat our
purpose, since the countries that are most at risk of genocide are the
very ones we most hope to attract.

This is important because, up until now, there has been no community of
prevention between the level of grassroots activism and the officialdom of
national governments and the UN. And research has shown that the more
connected a country is to the rest of the world – especially economically
and politically – the less likely it is that conflict there will escalate
into genocide. Some of the other risk factors for genocide, according to
US political scientist Barbara Harff, include a prior history of genocide,
ethnic and religious divisions within society, exclusionary ideology, and
autocratic rule.

Burma has all these in spades. Other researchers may look to different
indicators, but the pattern is unmistakable. Most genocide scholars and
human rights groups agree there has already been one genocide in Burma
since 1962 – that of the Rohingya – and there is ample evidence to suggest
that government killings of other ethnic groups constitute at least crimes
against humanity, if not full-blown genocide.

US political scientist Ted Robert Gurr recently published a brief paper
titled ‘Options for the Prevention and Mitigation of Genocide: Strategies
and Examples for Policy-Makers’. His analysis and recommendations are
grounded in the most recent experience of the international community as
well as the most up-to-date scholarship. Other, more comprehensive
attempts to address the issue have come from Minority Rights Group
International, which focuses on UN policy; the Genocide Prevention Task
Force, focusing on US policy; and the Will to Intervene Project, which
looks at both US and Canadian policy.

There are several drawbacks, however, to all of these approaches. One is
that they tend to stress intervention over prevention, which tilts the
balance toward short-term military solutions and away from longer-term,
political or economic approaches. The second is that they view the
solution as coming from outside the country at risk, as opposed to from
within.

In any case, history clearly suggests that it would be naïve to expect
direct action by the international community to prevent genocide in Burma
anytime soon. Perhaps the most promising avenue for change at the moment
is the recently created International Criminal Court (ICC), which is
empowered to investigate and prosecute genocide, war crimes, and crimes
against humanity. In 2009, the former UN special rapporteur on human
rights in Burma called on the UN security council to investigate crimes
against humanity in Burma with an eye to referring the case to the ICC.
And earlier this year, the British government issued a statement saying
that it would support a referral of Burma to the ICC by the UN Security
Council. The wheels of international justice grind slowly, though. The
question is, can they grind quickly enough for Burma’s ethnic minorities?

Alex Zucker is Communications and Development Officer of the New
York-based Auschwitz Institute for Peace and Reconciliation. The opinions
expressed here do not necessarily represent the views of the Auschwitz
Institute for Peace and Reconciliation.

____________________________________
PRESS RELEASE

July 19, Amnesty International (UK)
Myanmar elections will test ASEAN’s credibility

Southeast Asian nations should press the Myanmar government to protect the
rights to freedom of expression, peaceful assembly, and association
throughout the elections period and beyond, Amnesty International said
today on the eve of the ASEAN Ministerial Meeting in Ha Noi.

ASEAN has repeatedly emphasized that the elections should be held in a
“free, fair and inclusive manner”. Yet those calls do not go far enough to
highlight the human rights that are most at risk in the elections context.
Indeed, the Myanmar government has not taken any steps to improve its poor
human rights record as the polls approach.

More than 2,200 political prisoners continue to languish behind bars in
Myanmar.  This is double the number since the start of the mass peaceful
anti-government protests of August – September 2007—a huge indictment of
the grim human rights situation there.

Under Electoral Laws enacted in March, no political prisoner can take part
in the elections, including Daw Aung San Suu Kyi.  The same laws also
prohibit them from membership in any political party.

ASEAN should unequivocally call for the immediate and unconditional
release of all prisoners of conscience at the Ministerial Meeting,
something they conspicuously failed to do at the organisation’s summit in
Ha Noi in April.

The Electoral Laws also list a number of offences and penalties, among
them—a blatant violation of freedom of expression—a vaguely worded
provision against "exhorting" persons to vote or not to vote in the
elections.

Moreover, in a 21 June directive issued by the Union Election Commission,
political parties are prohibited from campaigning activities that “harm
security, the rule of law and community peace”. These regulations allow
for an excessively broad interpretation of what constitutes a threat to
“security”.  For decades the authorities have routinely used vaguely
worded laws to arbitrarily criminalize peaceful political dissent.

New censorship rules introduced in June also serve to undermine any
remaining scope for independent journalism around the elections process.

The “three freedoms”—of expression, peaceful assembly, and
association—must be safeguarded for all, whether people choose to
participate in the elections or not.  It is not enough for ASEAN to adopt
a “wait and see” attitude.

ASEAN states must also be prepared to speak out forcefully if individuals
are harassed and detained for their peaceful political views and
activities in the run-up to the elections.

Failure to address these urgent challenges will damage ASEAN’s
international credibility.  It is crucial that ASEAN seizes this
opportunity to work towards the realisation of long overdue human rights
improvements in Myanmar.