BurmaNet News, September 24, 2010

[Editor]

September 24, 2010 Issue #4049


INSIDE BURMA
BBC: Burma's Aung San Suu Kyi 'on voters' list'
DPA: Myanmar's second-largest pro-junta party to field 990 candidates
DVB: US diplomats meet the opposition

ASEAN
Irrawaddy: Obama to raise Burma issues with Asean leaders

INTERNATIONAL
Washington Post: Thai prime minister calls for 'more inclusive' political
system in Burma
AFP: Myanmar must free prisoners before elections: Amnesty

OPINION / OTHER
National Review Online: Burma: The next nuclear rogue? – Dana Rohrabacher
DVB: Than Shwe’s ‘Final Solution’ for ethnic Burma – Zoya Phan
Malaysia Kini: Will general election in Burma change anything? – James
Wong Wing-On

PRESS RELEASE
Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Czech Republic: Deputy Minister of
Foreign Affairs of the Czech Republic received a delegation of the
representatives of Burmese opposition



____________________________________
INSIDE BURMA

September 24, BBC News
Burma's Aung San Suu Kyi 'on voters' list'

Burma's detained pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi is on a voters'
list for the first general election in 20 years, eyewitnesses have told
the BBC.

Ms Suu Kyi's election victory in 1990 was annulled by Burma's military junta.

She is under house arrest and was at first excluded from the electoral roll.

Eyewitnesses say her name is now on a follow-up list for her ward in
Rangoon. There has been no official comment, and it is not clear if she
would be allowed out to cast her vote in November.

The development comes as Burma's military rulers are attending an annual
UN General Assembly meeting in New York.

Many Western nations and the UN are critical of Burma's poor human rights
record and refusal to hand over power to Ms Suu Kyi's party in 1990.

Analysts say Ms Suu Kyi's inclusion would have little impact on the
outcome of the vote. She has told dissatified citizens that they do not
have to participate in the 7 November polls.

Her National League for Democracy party was forced to disband under new
election laws.

BBC Burmese journalist Soe Win Than says most people believe that the same
faces that rule Burma now will be in power after the polls.

The government has founded its own political party - the Union Solidarity
and Development Party - headed by the incumbent prime minister.

Some 25% of seats are guaranteed under the new constitution for the
military, which means unelected military officers will sit in parliament.

____________________________________

September 24, Deutsche Presse-Agentur
Myanmar's second-largest pro-junta party to field 990 candidates

Yangon - Myanmar's second largest pro-junta party was planning to field
990 candidates in the upcoming November 7 polls, almost ten times as many
the largest pro-democracy party, sources said Friday.

National Unity Party (NUP) secretary Khin Maung Gyi said the party was not
in alliance with the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), the
country's largest political party with 1,163 candidates including many
recently retired senior military officers.

The NUP was set up to contest the 1990 general election by the now defunct
Burma Union Socialist Party, the legislative arm of the military during
former strongman Ne Win's rule from 1962 to 1988.

It lost the 1990 polls heavily to the National League for Democracy (NLD)
led by democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi, but the junta refused to
relinquish power.

Suu Kyi and the NLD have been effectively barred from contesting this
year's polls by new election regulations.

'I regret that the NLD will not participate in coming general election
because we wanted to face them again on November 7 for a fair fight,' Khin
Maung Gyi said.

The NUP and USDP are both seen as pro-junta.

Myanmar's two main pro-democracy parties, the National Democratic Force
and Democratic Party Myanmar, have only registered 160 and 49 candidates,
respectively.

Altogether, 37 parties have been registered to run, but only the
military-supported parties, such as the USDP and NUP, have been able to
field enough candidates to win a majority in the upcoming polls for the
lower, upper and regional houses of parliament.

Parties have complained the registration fee of 500 dollars per candidate
is too high.

Criticism has also been aimed at the new regulations, which stipulate
among others that political parties cannot include prisoners among their
members. This effectively bars NLD from running, as its leader, Suu Kyi,
is serving an 18-month jail term.

Some 93 parties ran in the 1990 election, the first democratic polls in
the country since 1962, when General Ne Win toppled elected premier U Nu
in a coup.

A new constitution ensures that even if a pro-democracy party wins the
November 7 polls, the military will be able to block legislation through
the Senate, a quarter of which is appointed by the junta.

____________________________________


September 24, Democratic Voice of Burma
US diplomats meet the opposition – Nang Kham Kaew

US diplomats on Tuesday met with officials from Burma’s three main
opposition parties in Rangoon as complaints of surveillance by Burmese
intelligence emerge.

Four US State Department staff gathered at the Rangoon house of
Washington’s ambassador to Burma to meet with candidates from the
Democratic Party (DP), the National Democratic Force (NDF) and the Union
Democracy Party (UDP). The three are perhaps the most vocal of opposition
and ‘third force’ parties contesting the 7 November polls.

“We told them that we were being followed by the government intelligence
officials and the people we visited were also questioned by their township
authorities for details of how many of us visited them and what kind of
documents we gave them,” said Than Than Nu, general-secretary of the DP
and daughter of Burma’s first civilian prime minister, U Nu.

“We told [the diplomats] that this is making people afraid [to have
connections with the party].” She added that the party, which is set to
field around 60 candidates, “will not have the level of freedom of
democratic countries as our elections are being held by a military
government.”

The US embassy declined to comment on whether there was any political
motive behind meeting with the opposition. The Obama administration has
roundly condemned Burma’s first elections in 20 years, and maintains tough
sanctions on the pariah.

The UDP meanwhile has said it will not broadcast its campaign speech on
television if, as is widely expected, any censoring is undertaken by the
junta. According to election laws, all manuscripts for campaign broadcasts
must submitted to the Press Scrutiny and Registration Division for vetting
a week before going on air, and any material deemed subversive will be
taken out.

“We have to submit the points that we are going to state before they can
be broadcast,” said UDP vice chairman U Htay. “If our statement is to be
censored, we have decided not to broadcast it. This is the decision of our
Central Executive Committee today.”

Of the opposition and ‘third force’ parties competing in the polls, the
NDF is leading the way in numbers of candidates running, with 161 put
forward. The UDP, on the other, will only field three. The NDF, which is
formed of former members of the National League for Democracy (NLD), is
cast as the main opposition party following the NLD’s dissolution.

____________________________________
ASEAN

September 24, Irrawaddy
Obama to raise Burma issues with Asean leaders – Lalit K. Jha

Washington—US President Barack Obama will raise the issue of Burma during
his meeting on Friday with leaders of the Association of Southeast Asian
Nations (Asean) and impress upon them the need for Burma to have a free
and fair election, the White House said Thursday.

“I'm sure the President will address the issue of Burma,” Special
Assistant to the US President and Senior Director for Asian Affairs Jeff
Badar told reporters at a news conference in New York. “I expect that that
issue will probably be raised by others as well.”

“Our expectation—I mean 'expectation' in the sense that this is what we
want, not what we foresee—is free and fair elections in Burma; the need
for there to be true national reconciliation; the release of political
prisoners and Aung San Suu Kyi,” Badar said.

The second US-Asean leaders’ meeting was scheduled to be held in New York
at a time when the Obama administration is attempting to boost ties with
Southeast Asia. The first meeting was held in Singapore in Nov. 2009.

Although Burmese Prime Minister Thein Sein attended the first meeting, he
will not attend the meeting on Friday. Burmese Foreign Minister Nyan Win
will attend, but is unlikely to be in direct contact with Obama.

The joint-statement issued in connection with the first meeting in
Singapore called for Burma’s achievement of national reconciliation and a
free, fair and inclusive election.

“We also underscored the importance of achieving national reconciliation
and that the general elections to be held in Myanmar [Burma] in 2010 must
be conducted in a free, fair, inclusive and transparent manner in order to
be credible to the international community,” the statement said.

“We called on the Government of Myanmar [Burma] to help create the
conditions for credible elections, including by initiating a dialogue with
all stakeholders to ensure that the process is fully inclusive,” the
statement continued.

However, since that time the military regime in Burma has taken steps to
ensure that opposition activists such as pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu
Kyi, the 88 Generation Students group and more than 2,000 political
prisoners have been barred from the November polls.

Other key stakeholders, including ethnic political parties that have
connections with armed cease-fire groups which have refused to transform
into members of the regime's border guard force, are also excluded from
the election process.

Meanwhile, Badar said that the US has tried to rebuild relations with
Asean since the beginning of the Obama administration.

“We felt that the region had not gotten the attention that it needed and
deserved in much of the previous decade. So, for example, on Secretary of
State Clinton's first trip to the region, she went to Jakarta. The
President has now decided that we should participate in the East Asia
Summit. We have appointed our first ever resident ambassador to ASEAN, who
is going to be stationed in Jakarta,” Badar said.

“I would expect at the meeting tomorrow there will be substantial
discussion about the future of multilateral institutions—what we call
wonkishly 'architecture'—in the region. As I say, we're joining the East
Asia Summit,” he said.

Badar also said that US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will be going
to Hanoi next month for the Asean Summit, which is the first time the US
secretary of state has participated in the meeting, The summit
traditionally includes all the Asean countries plus South Korea, Japan,
China, Australia, New Zealand and India.

“The US and Russia will be participating for the first time and President
Obama will be participating next year,” Badar said.

“So we'll be talking about how we can make that organization into a
cooperative framework. We'll be talking about nonproliferation issues—the
expectations that the countries of the region will rigorously enforce
their obligations under U.N. Security Council resolutions, particularly
vis-a-vis North Korea and Iran. We'll be talking about trade and
investment. As you know, we're negotiating a treaty, a trade promotion
treaty with a number of the Asean countries. So trade and investment will
be on the agenda. Those are the highlights,” Badar said.

____________________________________
INTERNATIONAL

September 24, Washington Post
Thai prime minister calls for 'more inclusive' political system in Burma –
Glenn Kessler

The military regime running Burma must allow for a "more inclusive"
political system, such as allowing the participation of jailed opposition
leader Aung Sang Suu Kyi, after disputed elections are held in November,
Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva said in an interview Thursday
evening.

Abhisit also defended his handling of an emergency decree issued in April
to combat mass protests that paralyzed the streets of Bangkok. Human
Rights Watch on Thursday condemned the continued use of the measure, which
it said was a "draconian law" that "allows authorities to violate rights
with impunity."

Abhisit said the government would try to address Human Rights Watch's
concerns but added that he was "slightly disappointed" the statement did
not recognize what he described as continued dangers to the government. "I
wish they would recognize that in implementing this law we are simply
trying to make sure there is stability and no violence," he said. "I am
confident that most ordinary people would say to you they have felt no
effect of the law."

Suu Kyi is a Nobel Peace Prize laureate who has been sentenced repeatedly
to house arrest since her party won a landslide election in 1990 that the
military leadership refused to accept. Abhisit noted that Suu Kyi has been
barred from participating in the upcoming elections, which her party,
ethnic minorities, monks, students and human rights groups have denounced
as a sham.

"I think realistically nobody expected that just having these elections
would shift things," Abhisit, 46, said in an interview in New York, where
he is attending the U.N. General Assembly. "I think it should be seen as a
first step. Whether that step is big enough depends on your expectations
and perspective on things."

He added: "For us, what is important is that once they go ahead, they lead
to a more inclusive process which would lay the foundation for further
steps, and also for reconciliation with the minority groups."

Asked specifically whether Suu Kyi and her party should regain a role in
public life, Abhisit said, "They [the junta] should do all they can to
open up the process."

Thailand shares a long border with Burma, also known as Myanmar, and
Abhisit is perceived in Asia as having a more jaundiced view of the
Burmese regime than his deposed predecessor, Thaksin Shinawatra. Though
Abhisit took office almost two years ago, he has not yet visited Burma,
which he attributed to scheduling conflicts.

"We should be there next month unless something comes up," he said.

Ahbisit acknowledged that Burma has brought instability, ethnic refugee
flows, illicit drugs and a heightened military presence along Thailand's
border. He said his government was seeking "fresh mechanisms" to deal with
the waves of migrant labor, which he said would help stop trafficking and
other crimes. As a first step, he said, the government would seek to
verify the number of foreign laborers in Thailand, which current estimates
put as high as 3 million but which he said a new census would likely show
is much higher.

On the sensitive case of alleged arms dealer Viktor Bout - whom the United
States wants extradited to face charges related to a sting operation and
whom Moscow wants returned to Russia - Ahbisit said the case is working
its way through the courts. Ultimately, though, he said, he would have to
make the final decision.

"We don't want to upset relations with either country," he said with a
smile. "We wish that maybe the two should talk to each other and resolve
it without getting us involved."

Abhisit, along with the leaders of other Southeast Asian nations, is
scheduled to meet with President Obama on Friday. It will be the second
such meeting, and he said it demonstrated that the Obama administration
wants to reengage with Southeast Asia.

"But there is now going to be more pressure that there should be
deliverables," he warned. "We wish to see more concrete proposals,
particularly in the area of trade and investment. That has been missing."

Abhisit said that security and the U.S. presence in the region is
important but that a trade and investment deal would be the quickest way
to boost the relationship between the United States and Southeast Asia. He
noted that the Association of Southeast Asian Nations already has a free
trade agreement with China, India and other countries.

Abhisit said he appreciated the political difficulty of getting such an
agreement through Congress, but added, "This is where the engine of growth
is going to be in the future - at the global level."
____________________________________

September 24, Agence France Presse
Myanmar must free prisoners before elections: Amnesty

London — Amnesty International urged Myanmar to free all political
prisoners Thursday ahead of elections in November, as it marked three
years since a deadly crackdown on protests led by Buddhist monks.

The London-based rights group said more than 2,200 dissidents including
pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi were still being detained by the
military regime -- more than double the number held before the 2007
demonstrations.

"It beggars belief that the government can attempt to burnish its
democratic credentials by holding elections, while it also holds more than
2,200 political prisoners behind bars and out of sight of the campaigns
and polls," said Benjamin Zawacki, Amnesty's Myanmar researcher.

Myanmar's first elections in 20 years are due to take place on November 7
but critics say they are a sham as the ruling junta has forbidden
political prisoners from either voting or from taking part.

Nobel Peace laureate Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy has
also been dissolved ahead of the polls. She led the party to victory in
Myanmar's last elections in 1990 but the regime annulled the result.

The 2007 protests began as small rallies against rising fuel and living
costs but escalated into huge anti-government protests led by crowds of
monks, whose striking attire saw their movement dubbed the "Saffron
Revolution".

At least 31 people were killed when Myanmar security forces cracked down
on the demonstrators, while hundreds of activists were detained.

"The long-standing problem of political imprisonment in Myanmar remains
very much at the heart of the political impasse in the country. These
prisoners constitute a significant part of the political opposition,"
Zawacki said.

____________________________________
OPINION / OTHER

September 24, National Review Online
Burma: The next nuclear rogue? – Dana Rohrabacher

For our sake as well as theirs, America must start assisting the brave
opponents of the Burmese junta.

Over the past decade, while America has struggled with intractable
conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan, ominous long-term changes in the
international landscape have evolved into an ugly new reality. Once we
have freed ourselves from the mayhem of Iraq and Afghanistan, we may be
shocked to find that our attention has been needed elsewhere. A number of
so-called “brush-fire” wars may have serious long-term consequences, and
North Korea’s and Iran’s uncompromising and unrelenting efforts to obtain
nuclear weapons are coming to a crisis. It seems that while we have been
focused elsewhere, they have been fixated on their goal.

As the U.S. participates in the gathering of the United Nations General
Assembly that opened yesterday morning, our feeble response to both North
Korea and Iran has set a bad example — potentially resulting in a nuclear
arsenal in the hands of one or both of these erratic and irrational
regimes. A number of other unsavory characters also seek the clout,
security, and respectful attention that nuclear weapons provide. There
have been recent revelations, for example, that the Burmese junta, a
government that is the worst of the worst, is engaged in a long-term
endeavor to obtain nuclear capability.

Over the past two decades, the Burmese military has turned a
once-prosperous country with enormous potential into a poverty-stricken
police state where the government literally enslaves its own people for
manual labor. Village after village in Burma’s ethnic tribal areas has
been burned and savaged by the junta’s forces, turning hundreds of
thousands of Burmese into displaced persons. The more fortunate refugees
have managed to flee across the Thai border in order to reach some
semblance of safety. But even Thailand, with its long history of
benevolence and charity toward refugees fleeing tyranny, is reaching its
limits.

The suffering of the people of this hidden corner of Asia knows no bounds.
When a massive cyclone hit Burma in 2008, the military delayed Western aid
from reaching devastated areas, with no concern for the suffering of their
own people. The ruling generals are tyrannical, bloodthirsty, and without
moral restraint. So how do nuclear weapons fit into this picture? Recent
reports indicate that the regime is actively pursuing a nuclear program,
with the help of North Korea. Such awesome new power in the hands of
psychotic bullies who have no regard for human life would be a nightmare —
not just for the suffering Burmese, but for all of humanity. Like North
Korea’s nuclear program, Burma’s does not suggest that it’s time to cut a
deal. It’s time for regime change. Such a goal does not require us to send
troops, but it does require a commitment to an alternative, and it
requires our attention.

Thankfully, there is an alternative to the Burmese military establishment.
Aung San Suu Kyi and her ethnic allies are democratic and give the West a
viable and powerful option. They would already have succeeded in toppling
their oppressors, except that China has supplied the junta with an arsenal
of modern arms and other instruments of repression. There is a steep price
for China’s assistance. Burma’s vast natural resources are being
plundered, and China is being provided with strategic military positioning
for its army and navy, which puts India in serious jeopardy. All of this
is, of course, in keeping with China’s global game plan of adding to its
own power by helping the world’s most rotten regimes, including North
Korea, Iran, Sudan, and Venezuela, among others.

America, stuck in quagmires of our own, has not made any serious effort to
counter the Chinese-led coalition of despicable regimes. The State
Department’s policy of engagement and patience has not resulted in
domestic changes, while at the same time some of these countries have made
great progress toward gaining nuclear-weapon capabilities. The suffering
of their people continues even as they pour their money into
nuclear-weapon development. Iran and Burma both have organized opposition
movements, but while America may applaud them, our government has always
stopped short of full and vigorous support.

I recently returned from the Thai-Burmese border, where I consulted with
members of the Burmese democracy movement. I was deeply impressed with not
only their courage, but also their commitment to a decentralized,
denuclearized, democratic Burma. The freedom-loving people of the region
want to be our allies against an evil enemy, as they were in the fight
against the Japanese in World War II. The American government has treated
them as pariahs.

A few Americans — missionaries, former members of the Special Forces, and
a sprinkling of adventurers — are there on the border as volunteers.
Reminiscent of the Flying Tigers before Pearl Harbor, though not as well
equipped, this ragtag contingent of American idealists help as best they
can, though often facing hostility from elements in our own government.
They are doing what my father used to call “the Lord’s work” — literally
as well as figuratively.

Our government did not support brave anti-Taliban forces in Afghanistan,
like Commander Massoud, until after we had been attacked on 9/11. Had we
done so, the attack might not have happened. So there is a cost to a
policy of ignoring those struggling against tyrannical and/or fanatical
forces, as in Afghanistan — and in Burma.

When America supports those brave souls fighting for their freedom against
despicable tyrants, we are not only doing the right thing by them, we are
invariably bolstering the safety of our own country. This is especially
true in an era when proliferation of nuclear weapons is not just a
theoretical threat.

—	Dana Rohrabacher (R.) represents California’s 46th CD.

____________________________________

September 24, Democratic Voice of Burma
Than Shwe’s ‘Final Solution’ for ethnic Burma – Zoya Phan

The international community has never paid proper attention to what
happens in ethnic areas of Burma. The Burmese army’s attacks against
civilians – even the shooting and killing women and babies, and the mortar
bombing of schoolchildren in Karen state – are ignored by media and
diplomats. The focus is almost exclusively on what happens in Rangoon, and
what happens with Aung San Suu Kyi.

For the past few months it is the so-called elections due in November
which has dominated the agenda. Who will stand, who will boycott? Will
there be more political space, and will Than Shwe retire?

And while the international community focuses on this, once again very
little attention is paid to what happens in ethnic areas, and the very
real danger of the dictatorship breaking ceasefires and plunging the
country into increased civil war.

At Burma Campaign UK we have been warning of this danger for years. Some
argue that the danger is small, but even so, the humanitarian and human
rights consequences are so serious that no chances should be taken.

Burmanisation has been the policy of successive dictators in Burma. They
don’t see ethnic diversity as something to celebrate and encourage;
instead they want one nation and one blood.

Burmanisation policies are pursued in different ways, from repressing the
teaching of ethnic history, language and culture, right through to
military attacks against civilians. Some of these are so serious that the
United Nations Special Rapporteur on Burma has called for them to be
investigated as possible war crimes and crimes against humanity.

The elections due in November are about one thing only: continued
dictatorship with a civilian face, with the brutal and corrupt military
and business elite remaining in power. A key part of the election plan is
a final solution to what they see as the ethnic problem: armed ethnic
groups must be crushed once and all.

Armed ethnic groups play an important role in defending ethnic people from
military attacks and human rights abuses. Many also provide services such
as health and education. Also of critical importance is the role they play
in preserving their culture. For all these reasons, the generals want to
destroy them.

Those groups that signed ceasefire agreements with the junta have been
told to become Border Guard Forces. But what it will mean in practice is
the surrender and assimilation into the Burmese army. Those groups which
have not signed ceasefires can expect an escalation of attacks.

With these armed groups destroyed, there will be no havens in Burma where
ethnic culture can survive. We will see the slow process of Burmanisation
which has taken place in other parts of Burma take hold across the whole
country.

At the National Convention to draft the 2008 constitution, every proposal
to protect ethnic culture and diversity by allowing some kind of autonomy
or federal government was rejected by the dictatorship. Military officers
are guaranteed by the constitution to be the ministers of border affairs,
home affairs and defence, and are selected by the head of the military,
not the new parliament. These are the three key ministries which will
control what goes on in ethnic areas. The 2008 constitution not only
guarantees contained dictatorship, it guarantees an end to ethnic
diversity in Burma.

The international community’s indifference to what happens in ethnic areas
is shocking. For years they have largely ignored military attacks against
civilians, even though they break international law. There has been no
serious effort to persuade the generals to end these attacks, negotiate a
ceasefire, or bring those committing these crimes to justice. Look how
little attention has been paid to the Karen National Union’s recent
announcement of a one-day ceasefire on International Day of Peace as a
sign of its willingness to negotiate and end conflict. No effort has been
made by the UN to seize this opportunity to try to kick-start dialogue to
bring peace to eastern Burma.

Some governments even argue that we must wait and see what happens after
the elections – whether the ‘new’ government releases Aung San Suu Kyi,
for example – before deciding to support a UN Commission of Inquiry. This
is effectively arguing that as long as Aung San Suu Kyi is released it is
okay for the Burmese army to continue to rape, torture and execute ethnic
civilians without these crimes even being investigated.

Now the international community largely ignores the risk of increased
conflict. The dictatorship’s demands that ceasefire groups surrender or
face military attacks risks plunging the country into conflict, which will
have serious national consequences and which will spill over into
neighbouring countries. Where are the urgent missions by the UN and others
to try to persuade the generals not to go ahead with this plan?

Than Shwe is pushing ahead with his final solution for ethnic people in
Burma. The armed wings of ceasefire groups must either join the Burmese
army or face military attacks. Their political wings will operate, if
allowed to at all, in one of the most restricted political environments in
the world, with no power or influence. Armed groups which have not signed
ceasefires also face increasing military attacks, and a new constitution
granting no real protection to ethnic people means Burmanisation will
continue.

The international community cannot continue to ignore what happens to
ethnic people in ethnic areas of Burma, not only on a moral basis, but
also on a practical basis. There will not be peace, democracy and
stability in Burma if the rights and aspirations of ethnic people continue
to be suppressed.

On paper the UN and others are committed to tripartite dialogue as the
solution to solving the problems in Burma. In practice what few efforts
are made to persuade the generals to enter into real dialogue pay only
lip-service to ethnic participation.

Once the elections are over, and the international community can no longer
hide behind the lie that elections will bring change to Burma, there must
be a revived UN-led effort to secure dialogue which leads to national
reconciliation, democracy and human rights. And this time, ethnic
representatives must be at the core of that effort, not sidelined. The
alternative is Than Shwe’s final solution.

Zoya Phan is International Coordinator at Burma Campaign UK. Her
autobiography is published as ‘Undaunted’ in the US and ‘Little Daughter’
in the rest of the world.
____________________________________

September 23, Malaysia Kini
Will general election in Burma change anything? – James Wong Wing-On

The military junta in Burma has set Nov 7 as the day for the 'general
election' in the military-ruled country in South-East Asia. It is also
widely expected that the military junta will effectively remain in
absolute power after the election as the opposition is in disarray and
split into those who are willing to give the 'election' a try and those
who have decided that it is too meaningless for it to be entertained.

Also, not many countries in the world, not especially the United States
that has changed its foreign policy strategy from total isolation to
selective engagement under the Obama administration, are convinced that
the junta-sponsored 'election' would be free, fair, inclusive and,
therefore legitimate.

Malaysiakini interviewed associate professor Jatswan Singh Sidhu in his
office recently to explore the various aspects of the 'election' in Burma.
The Universiti Malaya-based Jatswan has been a leading Malaysian academic
on Burma affairs for many years.

Malaysiakini: Is there any campaign by the opposition right now in Burma
to ask the people to boycott the election, that seems to be geared at
legitimising the military regime?

Jatswan Singh Sidhu: Yes, there are some groups like the 88 Generation
Students that have called for a boycott of the election to be held on Nov
7. The 88 Generation Students is a group of prominent dissidents in Burma
(fighting for democracy) whose members were involved in the 1988 uprising
against the military junta in Yangon.

Large segments of Buddhist monks have also been quietly persuading the
people not to vote. Aung San Suu Kyi has issued a statement asking the
people to consider whether the election is free, fair and inclusive. She
is expected to make a stronger statement as Nov 7 approaches.

In your observation, are the people in Burma enthusiastic about the election?

Given the media censorship and other forms of tight control inside Burma,
it is difficult to gauge...

However, from what we can gather from the limited news and information
that come out from that country, especially through the Internet, the
people are generally not enthusiastic as the most respected opposition
party, the National League for Democracy (NLD), has been disbanded and
cannot field candidates under its banner for the election.

There are reports that people in the rural areas are forced to join or
support the junta-approved parties. It seems that there is a widespread
sense of unhappiness and scepticism among the people inside Burma
vis-à-vis the election.

Given the situation, it is difficult to estimate the turnout of the voters
now or even after the polling has finished. In the 2008 'referendum' on
the new constitution, the official media in Burma claimed that 99 percent
of the voters turned up for the poll and that 93 percent voted in favour
of the junta-approved new constitution.

In view of the fact that many parts of Burma were just ravaged by Cyclone
Nargis causing widespread suffering, how could the voters' turnout be that
high? Indeed, we can expect the official media in Burma to again
orchestrate a propaganda campaign to show high turnout for the election to
be held on Nov 7 in order to claim legitimacy.

Is the polling period expected to be trouble-free? Will the junta's
'electoral victory' be challenged peacefully in Burma or can we expect
violence?

The military junta in Burma seems to have learned lessons from the 1988
and 2007 uprisings and has since enforced even stricter controls. For
example, university students in Yangon have been dispersed to campuses in
less populated areas. And Buddhist monks too would be prevented from
gathering en masse in Yangon and other major urban areas.

Many more dissidents have reportedly been rounded up and detained. Western
disaster relief NGOs and journalists have been asked to leave and tourist
visas have also been restricted. So, it is very unlikely that there would
be major and massive incidents from now until Nov 7 at least. Beyond that,
the opposition ...still needs time to regroup or reorganise and to mount
serious challenge to the military regime.

'Business as usual for Asean'

Will Asean capitals accept the junta's 'electoral victory' as legitimate
or will it cause a split?

Asean capitals are not likely to take strong stands on the legitimacy of
the electoral outcome in Burma although there may be mild voices to offer
Burma guidance to democratisation from Jakarta and Manila. But Malaysia
and Singapore, in particular, are more 'sympathetic' to the military
regime as their economic and business relations with Burma are close.

Because of what happened in Thailand earlier this year, the Abhisit
government seems to feel less self-confident to talk about democracy and
human rights in Burma. From a broader perspective, since the day Burma was
admitted as an Asean member in 1997, the legitimacy of the military junta
has in effect been recognised by all Asean members.

We can expect that, as far as Burma is concerned, Asean will go on with
"business as usual" after the election.

The official position of the US and its European allies is that the
election will not be legitimate. Will Asean's stand have any bearing on
this?

US and EU will not be bothered about Asean's stand on Burma. The Western
democracies will continue to raise issues and find ways and means to
pressure the military junta, including selective and targeted sanctions.

There is also now an effort to bring the military junta in Burma to the
International Criminal Court (ICC) to face charges of genocide. It is
expected that the ICC on Burma will be instituted by December this year.
As a matter of fact, since the 1997 admission of Burma into Asean, the
United States and European Union have not been happy about it. The
election will not change that.

____________________________________
PRESS RELEASE

September 24, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Czech Republic
Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Czech Republic received a
delegation of the representatives of Burmese opposition

On September 23, the First Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Czech
Republic, Mr. Jiri Schneider, received a delegation of the representatives
of Burmese opposition.

The current alarming situation in Burma/Myanmar was discussed during the
meeting.

Prior to the elections, the ruling military junta is trying to dissolve
the largest opposition movement and the winner of the last elections, the
National League for Democracy headed by Aung San Suu Kyi, who is still
kept under house arrest.

At the same time, military attacks against ethnic minorities are taking
place. The elections scheduled for November 7 won't be free nor
democratic, stated the Deputy Minister Schneider after the meeting.

The Ministry of Foreign Affaires of the Czech Republic calls upon the
government of Burma to release the political prisoners and to initiate
dialogue with all democratic forces. The Czech MFA further calls for
immediate cessation/termination of military activities against ethnic
minorities and for their inclusion into political dialogue.

The Czech Republic supports the initiative of the UN special rapporteur T.
O. Quintana to establish a Special Commission of Inquiry of war crimes and
crimes against humanity in Burma.