BurmaNet News, October 26, 2010

[Editor]

October 26, 2010 Issue #4069


INSIDE BURMA
AFP: Suu Kyi party says Myanmar vote will prolong dictatorship
Irrawaddy: Election boycott leaflets distributed
Reuters: Myanmar culture evolves despite junta's tight grip
Myanmar Times: NUP expects to improve on 1990 election performance

ON THE BORDER
Irrawaddy: Fire damages Laiza Market on KIO's 50th anniversary
Bangkok Post: Burma shuts border until after polls

DRUGS
Irrawaddy: Heroin, 'Ice' seized in Tachilek

INTERNATIONAL
DPA: UN chief calls for Myanmar political prisoners' release before polls
AFP: US offers aid to cyclone-hit Myanmar
Globe and Mail (Canada): Somalia, Myanmar and Afghanistan rated most
corrupt countries: report

OPINION / OTHER
AP: Myanmar's democracy icon sidelined for election – Jocelyn Gecker
The Nation (Thailand): Burma's nuclear adventure - the real threat –
Robert Kelley
VOA: A lost opportunity in Burma – Editorial
New Light of Myanmar: Let's go to polling station and vote – Maung Deh Doe

INTERVIEW
DVB: Aung Htoo, BLC: ‘Than Shwe fears the ICC’ – Dan Withers with Aung Htoo




____________________________________
INSIDE BURMA

October 26, Agence France Presse
Suu Kyi party says Myanmar vote will prolong dictatorship

Yangon – Myanmar opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi's party warned Tuesday
that next month's elections would only "prolong the military
dictatorship", describing the rules as "totally unfair".

The National League for Democracy (NLD) -- which has been officially
disbanded by the junta -- said it "completely boycotts" the vote, which
will be held without the participation of Suu Kyi, who is locked up.

"This election will be held to prolong the military dictatorship and to
confirm the 2008 constitution," the NLD said in a statement released to
the media.

The charter provides no guarantee for human rights and "cannot build a
peaceful new democratic nation", it added.

The constitution was adopted in 2008 after a widely criticised referendum
held days after a cyclone laid waste to vast swathes of the country and
left 138,000 people dead or missing.

The NLD won a landslide election victory in 1990 but was never allowed to
take office. It has been banned from political activities after opting to
boycott the November 7 vote, the first in 20 years.

Opponents say the junta, headed by Senior General Than Shwe, is taking no
chances this time, reserving a quarter of seats in parliament for the
military and crafting rules to make sure that junta-backed parties have
the upper hand.

Suu Kyi is under house arrest and as a serving prisoner is barred from
standing in the polls.

The election has been widely criticised by Western governments who say the
vote cannot be democratic without the participation of Suu Kyi and other
opposition figures.

UN chief Ban Ki-moon urged the junta to ensure the election is "inclusive
and transparent", renewing his call for the release of political
prisoners.

"It is not too late, even now... by releasing political detainees they can
make this election more inclusive and participatory," Ban said during a
visit to Thailand.

Suu Kyi has said she will refuse to cast a ballot next month and has
suggested her supporters consider doing the same, although she has stopped
short of an outright call for a boycott by voters.

She reiterated her view that people have the right to make up their own
minds whether to vote, her lawyer Nyan Win said after he visited the
democracy icon at her lakeside home.

"She also asked the voters to consider why they want to vote, or for what?
... It is nonsense as some people have said they will vote without knowing
anything," he said.

Suu Kyi's stance has led to a split within the opposition between those
who support her boycott and others who see the vote as the only hope for
progress in the autocratic nation.

A group of former NLD members has formed a new party, the National
Democratic Force (NDF), to stand in the election -- a move that has put it
at odds with Suu Kyi.

The NLD statement said the decision to participate ignored the "unanimous
decision" of Suu Kyi's party.

Suu Kyi, who has spent most of the past two decades locked up, had her
detention extended by 18 months in August last year over a bizarre
incident in which an American man swam uninvited to her lakeside home.

The opposition leader's current term of house arrest is due to expire just
days after the November election.

Even if she is released, observers believe she is unlikely to be allowed
to freely conduct political activities.
____________________________________

October 26, Irrawaddy
Election boycott leaflets distributed

Young members of disbanded National League for Democracy (NLD) distributed
election boycott leaflets in Insein and Mingalardon Townships in Rangoon
Division this morning, said local residents.

The leaflets, which were distributed in markets and busy streets, said
everyone has the right not to vote.

“Based on what party leader Aung San Suu Kyi has said, we distributed
leaflets saying people have the right not to vote in the general
election,” said a young NLD member.

He said the authorities photographed them while they distributed the
leaflets but did not disrupt them.

Some people got confused by the NLD logo appearing on the leaflets,
thinking that the NLD is going to contest the elections, so they had to
explain why the NLD is not contesting the election, he said.

He also said that party members will step up their anti-election campaign
in other parts of the country, urging people not to vote and boycott the
elections on Nov. 7.

NLD members also launched the party's anti-election campaign in Thanlyin
Township.

“We think this is an effective way to tell people that the junta-planned
election is not fair,” he said.

Though the NLD has been officially dissolved as a political party, its
leaders have intensified their election boycott campaign, traveling across
the country, meeting with party members and asking for their support in an
election boycott.

____________________________________

October 26, Reuters
Myanmar culture evolves despite junta's tight grip

Yangon – With their bold outfits, sharp dance moves and hip hop rhythms,
Myanmar's "Tiger Girls" shatter the usual image of Burmese women and hint
at social change in one the world's most authoritarian states.

Their growing following among Myanmar's youth after forming just eight
months ago illustrates how popular culture is finding a way to flourish in
Myanmar, where the first election in two decades next month is widely seen
as rigged to consolidate army rule.

But their success also points to the limitations of art under a military
junta.

Making it in Myanmar takes more than popular songs. It involves eschewing
obvious political themes, and accepting constant interference and
censorship by the authorities.

"Stop talking and start dancing," sings Wei Hnin Khine, better known to
her fans as "Tricky," in one Tiger Girls song. "Use your hips, not your
lips."

Female singers in the former Burma are traditionally more conservative and
cautious, seldom veering from well-worn romantic ballads. Outfits are
carefully layered to prevent glimpses of too much skin. Lyrics, almost
always in Burmese, are less overtly Western influenced.

Not so the Tiger Girls.

While there's nothing obviously political or subversive about Tricky,
Baby, Chilli, Electro and Missy rehearsing in a studio in the commercial
capital Yangon, or performing on stage, the mere act of challenging
conventions is rare in a country mired in a cultural slumber brought about
by 48 years of military rule.

They're also not alone. Hip hop artist Thxa Soe is testing other limits.
His most recent album saw nine of 12 songs banned by Myanmar's army-run
censorship board.

And in the galleries of the commercial capital Yangon, art exhibitions,
some with risky hidden political messages, are opening with greater
frequency.

"We're still trying to find our way," said Htike Htike, the Tiger Girl who
goes by the name Electro. "Some fans do not understand the road we're
taking."

After advertising for singers and dancers to join the Tiger Girls in
Yangon, their Australian manager, Nicole May, picked the final five out of
about 100 who auditioned.

They started working together in February and made their debut in April at
an outdoor music festival where a crowd of thousands at first didn't know
what to make of the young women whose lyrics fused English and Burmese in
rhythms heavily influenced by American hip hop.

"The crowd didn't know to what to think because the Tiger Girls are a very
new concept for a girl band in Myanmar," said May. "Hopefully these Tiger
Girls can be role models for other Myanmar youth."

HIDDEN MESSAGES

Yangon-based cartoonist Aw Pi Kye turns to self-censorship to survive the
junta's strict rules.

"We've been doing this for a long time and are aware of the obstacles, so
you automatically censor yourself at the start of an idea. It's not good,"
he said.

Artists in authoritarian states have long tested political boundaries, and
repression and censorship often add to the cache for the overseas
audience.

Paintings with political undertones from China, for instance, have been
fetching millions at auctions abroad, while edgy films that are invariably
banned by nervous Communist censors frequently win wide acclaim overseas.

In Myanmar, jokes, plays and cartoons were used to push social change
during British colonial rule from 1824 to 1948.

In the 1980s under the oppressive dictatorship of Ne Win, university
magazines carried poems and illustrations with veiled political
statements, a practice that was later halted.

Today, every song, book, cartoon and planned piece of art requires
approval by censors rooting out political messages and criticisms of
Myanmar's authoritarian system.

Yet there are some who push those boundaries such as Thxa Soe, the
30-year-old hip hop artist whose songs regularly face the censors' wrath.

Known and criticised for updating traditional music, he was not allowed to
sing "Water, Electricity, Please Come Back," a sensitive topic in a
country known for regular blackouts.

Fans routinely try to interpret rock icon Lay Phyu's songs as having
political undertones.

One of his album titles was seen as an oblique reference to detained
opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi and fans believe his absence from live
shows in the past was a result of a ban.

"The Burmese are smart and savvy," said Chaw Ei Thein, an exiled artist
based in New York. "They're very good at reading between the lines."

The number of art galleries in Yangon has doubled from a few years ago to
about 90, some featuring subtly political artwork.

One female artist, who asked not to be identified, said she wanted to use
birds made of newspapers in a work of installation art in Yangon because
"the people's voice is not heard in the papers." The censors scrapped the
newspaper idea.

Instead, she painted the birds in revolutionary red.

(Reporting by Reuters in Yangon and Bangkok)

(Writing by Martin Petty and Jason Szep)

____________________________________

October 25, Myanmar Times
NUP expects to improve on 1990 election performance – Soe Than Lynn and
Kyaw Hsu Mon

THE National Unity Party expects to fare “far better” on November 7 than
in the 1990 election, when it won just 10 constituencies, a senior
official told The Myanmar Times last week.

The party will field 995 candidates, second only to the Union Solidarity
and Development Party (USDP), and analysts are predicting the NUP could
possibly hold the balance of power in both the Pyithu and Amyotha
Hluttaws.

NUP Central Executive Committee member U Han Shwe said in about one-third
of these lower and upper house constituencies his party would only be
competing against a candidate from the USDP.

He said the party was expecting to win at least some of these seats.

“If Region or State Hluttaw seats are taken into account as well, there
are at least another [200 constituencies] where only these two parties are
competing,” he said. “We believe we will get a far better result than in
the 1990 election.”

“We will compete directly with the USDP in 30 percent of the
constituencies, and by practicing our party’s principles we have a 50 pc
chance to win in these areas. We won’t say that we will win them all, but
I think our results will be better than the 1990 election,” he said.

He said he can assure voters that the NUP will implement their agenda
according to the party’s policies after the election, even if they don’t
have a majority in parliament.

“People know what they should do during the election, and the NUP will
accept the people’s choice,” he said. “We don’t want to instruct the
people. They’re smart enough to decide who to vote for. Now it’s their
turn to make their choice.”

A report issued by the Social Science Research Council’s Conflict
Prevention and Peace Forum last week suggested “the most likely outcome
[of the election] will hold the balance of power between” the USDP and the
democratic groups.

“This would give the NUP a powerful role and it is unclear how it will use
its legislative influence. The party is undoubtedly part of the political
‘establishment’, but its policies are unlikely to coincide with those of
the present regime on all issues – it would not be surprising if it
decided to push for one of the presidential nominees to be drawn from its
ranks, for example,” Richard Horsey, a former International Labour
Organisation liaison officer in Myanmar, wrote in the report.

The NUP was established on October 24, 1988 and is based on the Burma
Socialist Program Party, founded by General Ne Win in 1962.

U Han Shwe said while socialism was the NUP’s legacy, the party was no
longer dogmatic and its primary aim was to work for the benefit of the
people.

He said the party, which has about 700,000 members, also avoids extremism,
centralising government, giving any ethnic group an advantage over others
and imitating foreign countries.

He said the party was confident “human rights and democracy will
materialise” if the constitution is adhered to properly.

“If we reach the Hluttaw and have authority, we will prioritise three
items: national unity, survival of the constitution and implementing a
social market economy that will bring about equity and growth,” U Han Shwe
said.

Of the NUP’s 995 candidates, 294 will stand for the Pyithu Hluttaw, 149
for the Amyotha Hluttaw and 552 for State or Region Hluttaws. – Translated
by Thit Lwin

____________________________________
ON THE BORDER

October 26, Irrawaddy
Fire damages Laiza Market on KIO's 50th anniversary – Wai Moe

A fire on Monday did significant damage to the Sino-Burmese border market
in Laiza, Kachin State, the headquarters of the Kachin Independence
Organization (KIO), a major ceasefire group which has had a tense
relationship with Burma's military regime due to its refusal to join the
junta's border guard force (BGF).

“The damage at the Laiza market near the border gate was at least 3.5
million yuan [US $525,000]. The fire burned more than 100 shops and nine
houses,” said a KIO intelligence official in Laiza who spoke on condition
of anonymity. He said the fire was accidentally started by a Chinese
couple living at the market.

“The fire burned between 2 and 5 a.m. On Monday. The Laiza fire brigade,
soldiers of the KIA [the Kachin Independence Army, which is the military
wing of the KIO], as well as local people cooperated with each other to
control the fire,” the KIO official said.

Monday was the 50th anniversary of the formation of the KIO. In addition,
the KIO has alerted people in its controlled areas about potential
conflict with the junta after two KIO liaison offices in Mohnyin Township
were searched by government forces on Oct.19 and the junta's state-run
press called the KIA “insurgents” on Oct.15. Sources said that due to
these events there was speculation that the fire was intentionally set by
KIO enemies.

But the KIO official said he did not think the fire was arson, and added
that there would be no significant impact on KIO business.

According to KIO sources in Laiza, Chinese authorities briefly closed the
border at Nabangzhen and tightened security on Monday.

Meanwhile, two other incidents that occurred in the Kokong region of
northern Shan State on the Sino-Burmese border over the weekend have
increased tensions ahead of the Nov. 7 election. On Saturday, an
arms-storage house in Laogai was attacked by unknown armed men who took
away four rifles and killed one guard, and on Sunday unknown armed men
attacked the base of a junta-backed militia in Mong Ko and took three
rifles after killing one guard.

Sources said the Kokang armed group known as the Myanmar National
Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), led by Peng Jiasheng, could be behind
the two attacks as the group has recently become active in the region
after being overrun by junta forces in surprise attack in August 2009.

Ethnic armed groups on the Sino-Burmese border, including the United Wa
State Army and the KIO, which are the largets militias, as well as the
MNDAA, have rejected the junta’s BGF plan which would put them under the
command of the Burmese army, saying the plan would not guarantee ethnic
rights in the country.

Due to the tension between the armed ethnic groups and the military
government, the regime cancelled the Nov. 7 election in some areas
controlled by the ethnic militias.

“We are living with tension that could get worse in the post-elections
period. But we have been prepared for the worst in defending our land and
our people,” said the KIO official.
____________________________________

October 26, Bangkok Post
Burma shuts border until after polls – Thanida Tansubhapol

Mae Sot: Foreign Ministry officials are expecting Burma to keep its border
checkpoint opposite this Tak district closed until at least after its
general elections on Nov 7.

The junta closed the border in July in protest against a project by the
Public Works Department to build an embankment along the Thai side of the
Moei River without informing Burma. Naypyidaw said the embankment could
change the flow of the river and cause erosion to the bank on the Burma
side.

Border trade has slowed dramatically following the closure, causing major
problems for local business operators.

Senior officials, including Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, have tried
to negotiate with Burma to reopen the border.

A Foreign Ministry source said yesterday Thai authorities questioned the
junta's reason for closing the border.

The source said the closure was motivated by a military desire to
reorganise the command and control structure in the area so authorities
fully benefited from the trade in the area, which is worth more than 20
billion baht a year.

The junta is reportedly furious that minority groups operating along the
border enjoy a large share of the commerce. Authorities want to break up
trade by minority groups before reopening the border, the source said.

Thai and Burmese officials have agreed to let 18 unofficial border
checkpoints operate to ease the impact of the closure. Trading is allowed
only after sunset and only five light trucks are allowed to transport
goods to Burma each night.

Foreign Minister Kasit Piromya said during a visit to Mae Sot on Friday
that the two sides were negotiating the issue through a joint border
committee

Mr Kasit said it was likely the checkpoint would reopen when Burma's
internal security situation improved, which Thai authorities expect would
happen after the Nov 7 election.

The Foreign Ministry source said the junta itself was constructing
something similar along a one-kilometre stretch of the river even though
it had protested against Thailand's construction of an embankment on the
Moei River.

The Foreign Ministry plans to protest the Burmese project, which the
source said would cause erosion on the Thai side. The Public Works
Department resumed building its embankment a few days ago after the
Burmese move.

Burmese officials filed a second protest against the project with Thai
authorities last Monday.

____________________________________
DRUGS

October 26, Irrawaddy
Heroin, 'Ice' seized in Tachilek – Lawi Weng

Over 79 kilograms of heroin and 50 kilograms of crystal methamphetamine,
or “ice,” were seized on Oct. 24 by the Burmese anti-narcotics bureau in
Tachilek Township on the Thai-Burmese border, according to local police.
It was the largest drugs seizure in Burma this year.

Speaking to The Irrawaddy on Tuesday, a police officer in Tachilek said
they had seized 159 blocks of heroin plus 50 kilograms of ice which had
been hidden in two local houses. He said that each block of heroin weighed
half a kilogram.

The source said that the police busted the houses after receiving an
anonymous tip-off.

Three people—one ethnic Akha woman and two Chinese men—were arrested and
are currently being detained in Tachilek's jail. The police officer said
the detainees were under investigation but could not confirm whether the
three are related to an organized drug trafficking group. The seized
heroin was almost certainly due to be transported to Thailand, he said.

The United Wa State Army (UWSA) is regarded as the biggest player in Shan
State’s illicit drugs business. The latest clash between the Thai army and
the UWSA on Sept. 27 left one Thai soldier dead.

Thailand's Office of the Narcotics Control Board has reported that the
methamphetamine trade into Thailand has more than tripled in the past
year, adding that methamphetamine produced by the armed ethnic groups in
Burma was being exchanged for weapons in preparation for conflict against
the Burmese army.

According to NGO Shan Drug Watch, there are now 46 areas under drug
cultivation in Shan State despite the UN Office on Drugs and Crime
supporting a decade-old drug eradication program. Burmese government
forces have been involved in taxing local people that grow opium, says
Shan Drug Watch.

The US State Department last year reported that Burma "is a significant
player in the manufacture and regional trafficking of amphetamine-type
stimulants,” adding that a large amount of the drugs from Burma end up in
Thailand.

The Thai government has signed an agreement with other governments of the
Greater Mekong Subregion, including the Burmese government, to eliminate
illegal drug trafficking in the region.

The Burmese military regime reported that last year it destroyed 7,893
acres of opium poppy fields in Shan and Kachin states. Burma is the
world's second largest producer of heroin after Afghanistan, according to
US and UN experts.

____________________________________
INTERNATIONAL

October 26, Deustche Press Agentur
UN chief calls for Myanmar political prisoners' release before polls

Bangkok - UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon on Tuesday called for the
release of all political prisoners prior to Myanmar's November 7 election
to make it more inclusive.

'It is not too late even now,' Ban said in Bangkok ahead of Myanmar's
first general election in 20 years.

Myanmar's most famous political prisoner is Nobel peace laureate and
opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, whose latest house detention term is
scheduled to finish November 13.

Military-ruled Myanmar has an estimated 2,100 political prisoners.
Officials there have hinted that they would release about 11,000 prisoners
prior to the polls, but the amnesties were expected to be reserved mostly
for common criminals, not political detainees.

Ban was in Bangkok en route to a summit between the United Nations and the
Association of South-East Asian Nations in Hanoi this week. Myanmar is a
member of the regional group, which also includes Brunei, Cambodia,
Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and
Vietnam.

The UN chief said he was scheduled to hold a separate meeting in Hanoi
with Myanmar Prime Minister Thein Sein.

He met with Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, who was the target of
an anti-government protest in the capital from March to May, which
resulted in bloody street battles that claimed 91 lives, including 11
soldiers and policemen.

About 400 supporters of the United Front for Democracy Against
Dictatorship, as the protestors called themselves, gathered outside the UN
headquarters in Bangkok to call Ban's attention to the ongoing
imprisonment of 17 of their leaders and almost 200 followers who were
arrested on terrorism charges in a crackdown on the demonstration.

'The crimes against humanity by the government forces ... have not been
investigated honestly, and the real terrorists in Thailand remain in
power,' the group said in a petition presented to Ban.

But Ban insisted the protest was an internal matter for Thailand.

'This is a Thai issue, and it should be resolved by Thais,' Ban said. He
commended the government for having set up a reconciliation commission to
investigate and seek peaceful solutions to Thailand's political problems.

He said the UN was ready to provide technical assistance to the commission.

____________________________________

October 26, Agence France Presse
US offers aid to cyclone-hit Myanmar

Washington — Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said Tuesday that the US
government is offering aid to Myanmar after a deadly cyclone struck the
western part of the southeast Asian country.

Clinton, who is due to travel to nearby Vietnam, Cambodia and Malaysia in
the coming days, offered condolences on the loss of life and damage caused
by Cyclone Giri, which killed at least 27 people and destroyed thousands
of homes.

"The US Embassy in Rangoon (Yangon) has offered immediate disaster relief
assistance, and we will offer additional assistance as needed," Clinton
said in a statement.

"Our thoughts and prayers are with the Burmese people and all those
affected by this tragedy," she said, referring to the people of Burma, the
country's name before the ruling military junta changed it to Myanmar.

The storm slammed into the coastal state of Rakhine on Friday with winds
of up to 193 kilometers (119 miles) per hour.

In addition to the 27 killed, some 15 people are missing, official media
reported. The cyclone also destroyed 2,800 homes, dozens of government
buildings and two bridges, according to state radio in the army-ruled
country.

Clinton is due to visit Vietnam and Cambodia at the weekend before flying
to fellow southeast Asian nation Malaysia on Monday. She will also travel
to Papua New Guinea, New Zealand and Australia as part of a two-week tour.

____________________________________

October 26, Globe and Mail (Canada)
Somalia, Myanmar and Afghanistan rated most corrupt countries: report –
Kirsten Grieshaber

Berlin – Somalia is the most corrupt country in the world, followed by
Afghanistan, Myanmar and Iraq, an international watchdog said Tuesday.

The annual report of Transparency International found that Denmark, New
Zealand and Singapore tied for first place as the world's least corrupt
nations. Canada improved from last year’s eighth-place ranking to come in
sixth, after Finland and Sweden.

The watchdog group found that some countries that were especially hard hit
by the fallout of the global financial crisis became more corrupt during
the last year. Among those were Greece and Italy, but also the United
States, which declined to 22nd place, compared with 19th place last year.

Of the 178 countries surveyed, nearly three quarters fell below an index
score of five on a scale where zero is the most corrupt and 10 is the
least. Transparency International's corruption index draws on 13 different
surveys of businesspeople and governance experts conducted between January
2009 and September 2010.

The Berlin-based watchdog group said the overall results show that greater
efforts must go into strengthening governance across the globe.

“Allowing corruption to continue is unacceptable — too many poor and
vulnerable people continue to suffer its consequences around the world,”
said Hugutte Labelle, the director of Transparency International.

“We need to see more enforcement of existing rules and laws,” she said.
“There should be nowhere to hide for the corrupt or their money.”

Peter von Blomberg, the deputy director of Transparency International,
said that a recent verdict by a U.S. federal court that allows companies
to donate an unlimited amount of money to support parties made the group
believe that “this strengthens the impression that one can buy political
decisions with money.”

There were some bright spots in the new report — Bhutan, Chile, Ecuador,
Gambia, Haiti, Jamaica, Qatar, Kuwait and Macedonia were among the
countries that improved the most.

____________________________________
OPINION / OTHER

October 26, The Associated Press
Myanmar's democracy icon sidelined for election – Jocelyn Gecker

Bangkok -- On the morning of Myanmar's first election in 20 years, the
woman who has come to symbolize the struggle for democracy in her country
will rise at 4 a.m. to meditate.

Then she will switch on her four shortwave radios to follow the event from
inside the crumbling lakefront villa that is her home - and prison.

The popular and charismatic Aung San Suu Kyi is right where the ruling
military junta wants her: locked away under house arrest. She is barred
from running in the Nov. 7 election. Her political party has been
dissolved, removing the only viable opposition in the country formerly
known as Burma.

The results of the vote appear to be a foregone conclusion. The military,
which has run Myanmar since 1962, is expected to continue to do so through
a proxy party. Its so-called "roadmap to democracy" is widely seen at home
and abroad as a sham to extend military rule with a civilian facade.

Suu Kyi (pronounced Sue-Chee) carried her party to a landslide win in
Myanmar's last election in 1990. The ruling generals ignored the results
and have kept the Nobel Peace Prize winner locked up on-and-off ever
since.

This time, the junta is not taking any chances. The 65-year-old Suu Kyi
has been politically neutralized, reduced to a mere observer.

But her story may have a sequel. Her detention expires on Nov. 13, a few
days after the election, and many analysts believe Suu Kyi will be granted
limited freedom as an olive branch to the international community.

"The military has effectively marginalized Aung San Suu Kyi, because she
cannot go out and campaign against the military's election," said Muang
Zarni, an exiled dissident and Myanmar research fellow at the London
School of Economics. "So in that sense, the military has won. But
political struggles are not 100-meter sprints."

"As long as Aung San Suu Kyi walks the streets of Burmese cities, she can
mobilize public opinion against the regime," Zarni said. "They are afraid
of her popular appeal. And when you (combine) Aung San Suu Kyi and massive
discontent, you've got a very explosive situation."

It is largely because of Suu Kyi that Myanmar is not forgotten.

Often compared to Nelson Mandela and Gandhi, the petite and poised Suu Kyi
has inspired songs by the rock groups U2 and REM. On her birthdays,
Hollywood stars such as George Clooney have joined world leaders and
global protests in calls for her freedom.

"She is our beacon of hope. She stands for freedom and democracy in
Myanmar," said Moe Moe, a 44-year-old beauty salon owner, one of a dozen
people interviewed about the elections in Yangon, the nation's teeming
main city.

Municipal worker Soe Maung, 45, described Suu Kyi as "the only person who
can save us from poverty and misery, ... the only hope we have."

The military has a history of quashing dissent, instilling fear in the
population. Soldiers put down uprisings in 1988 and 2007 with gunfire. The
country's prisons hold 2,100 political prisoners, who otherwise might be
candidates in the election.

Suu Kyi's lawyer, Nyan Win, said she will be closely watching the election
from inside her police-ringed home. Her days follow a strict routine of
meditating until 5:30 a.m., then turning on the four radios in her bedroom
to listen to the BBC, Voice of America, Radio Free Asia and a dissident
overseas station, the Democratic Voice of Burma.

No phones or Internet connections are allowed in her home, though Suu Kyi
said through her lawyer recently that she looks forward to joining Twitter
one day to chat with the younger generation.

She likes to paint nature scenes and is an avid reader; her lawyer
recently dropped off a load of books that included English classics and
biographies, French travelogues and history and Burmese-language Buddhist
texts.

Suu Kyi has been described as an accidental leader. She grew up partly in
India, where her mother was ambassador. She later attended Oxford, worked
for the United Nations in New York and then married British academic
Michael Aris and raised their two sons in England.

She stumbled into politics at age 43, when she returned to Myanmar in 1988
to nurse her dying mother just as an uprising erupted.

But politics was also her pedigree. Her father was Myanmar's independence
hero, Gen. Aung San, who was gunned down by political rivals in 1947 when
she was 2. She inherited her father's charisma, a fierce nationalism and
stubborn streak.

Suu Kyi has been criticized, at times, for taking a moral high ground that
allows little room for compromise. Some analysts and supporters believe
she erred in encouraging her party, the National League for Democracy, to
boycott the election, which she calls rigged and unfair. The boycott led
to her party's dissolution.

Supporters praise Suu Kyi for never veering from her call for true democracy.

In an interview with The Associated Press in 1996, she asked, "How can you
bring multiparty democracy to Burma if you do not allow the parties to
operate freely?"

Her commitment to the cause has come at high personal cost. She last saw
her sons Alexander and Kim in 2000, the year after her husband died of
cancer in England. She has since refused to leave Myanmar for fear of not
being allowed back, and her sons, now in their 30s, have been denied
entry. She has two grandchildren she has never met.

If she is released on Nov. 13, Myanmar experts say her freedom could be
short-lived, as has been the case in the past. She also may need to
redefine her role, now that her party no longer exists.

"I think she is trying to find new ground upon which to stand and really
open a new era," said Josef Silverstein, a Myanmar expert at Rutgers
University in New Jersey. "But that will depend on the military."

____________________________________

October 26, The Nation (Thailand)
Burma's nuclear adventure - the real threat – Robert Kelley

For several years reports have been emerging from Burma about its nuclear
ambitions, supported by claims of varying provenance about equipment
purchases and overt attempts to buy nuclear technology from Russia.

Now a brave military officer, who defected from the secretive state, has
provided photographs of specialised machine shops building chemical
equipment that is almost certainly designed for processing uranium
chemical compounds to enrich uranium.

The only reason for Burma to be taking this secretive path is to embark on
a weapons programme. There is no other logical fit for the pieces.

The good news is that the technology is far too complex for Burma to
master easily. The photos and information provided by the defector show a
dysfunctional programme. It has made terrible technology choices and the
quality of the workmanship we can observe is primitive.

If Burma stays on this course there is a good possibility the programme
will never succeed, although we must remember, however, that the
photographs and descriptions available for examination come from a single
source.

It is possible there are other areas where the programme is better managed
and more advanced.  Nonetheless from what we can see, there is no
immediate threat to Burma's neighbours.

Yet should another country step in to assist Burma with knowledge,
equipment and nuclear materials this could rapidly change. Pakistani
nuclear scientists reportedly fled to Burma in 2001, and North Korea,
closely allied with the Burmese regime, provides it with conventional
weaponry. North Korea has detonated two nuclear devices of its own. It is
suspected of sharing this technology.

And that's the bad news: there is every reason to be alarmed by reports
that a state, regardless of its technical limits, may be toying with the
development of nuclear weapons. The dye has long been cast: nuclear arms
merchants and their suppliers are a chilling aspect of nuclear
proliferation. The nuclear weapons dreams of despots cannot be readily
dismissed. What they may themselves be unable to produce they can
purchase.

At risk in this high stakes game is not only the security of the would-be
nuclear proliferator's neighbours but the international non-proliferation
regime.

I have been serving the goals of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of
Nuclear Weapons (NPT) for 20 years. We have always come from behind in
trying to stop proliferators. We succeeded just in time in Iraq when we
discovered a clandestine programme in 1991. We arrived too late in North
Korea, even though there were unmistakable signs that proliferation was
occurring. Pakistan, which did not sign the NPT, openly produced nuclear
weapons while we stood by helplessly, exploded test devices, and then
contrived to re-export its nuclear knowledge to an unknown number of
persons and states that had signed the NPT.

In the non-proliferation community, we have argued for more and better
tools to detect potential proliferators. Now we have used some of those
tools to identify one, but the response from many quarters is that it is
too soon, too difficult and too hard, to investigate and stop Burma.

But when is the right time? When it is too late? What tools will the world
use then? Sanctions? Bombs?  These are key questions. Intelligence
analysis has done its job: it's identified the parts of a potential
smoking gun. Now is the time to act.

Burma has been caught earlier and more completely than any other would-be
proliferator. It's against such risks that the NPT and its system of
safeguards was established. Its complement, the Bangkok Treaty,
establishing a Nuclear Weapons Free Zone encompassing Asean states, is a
further buttress against proliferation.

If we fail to act in a timely manner to respond to this poorly executed
but obvious threat, we render meaningless the NPT and the tenets of the
Bangkok Treaty. It is time to invoke Articles 12 and 13 of the Treaty that
allow the group to begin an investigation of these assertions and force
Burma to come clean.  Citizens of this populous region may not feel
threatened today or next year, but they will never know when they can feel
safe without resolution of this issue.

____________________________________

October 26, Voice of America
A lost opportunity in Burma – Editorial

Lack of freedoms of expression, assembly and association make the
country's electoral process "deeply flawed."

Volunteers in Shan ethnic traditional costume enroll to get ballots in a
demonstration on voting for the upcoming general election.

A new United Nations report confirms what many in the international
community have been saying for months since the military government of
Burma announced it would hold the first parliamentary elections there in
20 years. Tomas Quintana, U.N. human rights rapporteur on Burma, told the
UN General Assembly on October 20 that the lack of freedoms of expression,
assembly and association make the country's electoral process "deeply
flawed."

Genuine elections call for broad participation, but Burma's electoral
process has been marked by a distinct lack of inclusiveness. Many
opposition groups and ethnic minorities won't be allowed to participate,
and those candidates permitted to take part must swear allegiance to the
2008 constitution, which guarantees the military one quarter of the seats
in parliament, regardless of the outcome of the vote.

The regime also continues to hold thousands of political prisoners, a grim
warning against the questioning of authority. Outside election observers
and members of the foreign press are also barred from entering the country
to study and report on the election.

News that Burma was essentially closing its borders to outsiders before
the election is not surprising, given the regime's preparations for the
vote under  the constitution and a political registration law imposed
earlier this year. Still, it is disappointing that Burma's leaders are not
taking advantage of the opportunity to have a more open election and
pursuing a dialogue within civil society in Burma, one that will help
build a more stable, prosperous Burma that respects the rights of all its
citizens.
____________________________________

October 26, The New Light of Myanmar
Let's go to polling station and vote – Maung Deh Doe

Uncle Phyo: Hi Maung Deh Doe! I am expecting you. As you know the
elections are drawing nearer and scores of remarks from various angles are
appearing, we like ordinary people are getting confused. I have some
questions concerning the elections.

Maung Deh Doe: Yes, Uncle Phyo, what do you want to know?

Phyo: So many! There are calls to stay away from casting votes or to
boycott certain parties. There are many independent candidates in addition
to a large number of parties. There are so many candidates. We even don't
know the names of Hluttaws (parliaments) and their exact number. Besides,
we will have to cast votes for ...ah... nationalities candidates?
Or...ah...minorities? I have no idea how to call them. There will be a
number of ballot boxes. Some are totally perplexed deciding to stay at
home on the elections day. So, my first question is "Why do we have to
cast vote? Will the elections make all the difference to us?"

Doe: Yes, maybe a bit confusing. Actually, it is the first-ever multiparty
democracy election after a number of years. We have a new constitution and
many are new parties. There will be a number of ballot boxes for different
hluttaws. So, the answer is: "This is a multiparty democracy election. In
fact, we will have to choose members of the three legislative hluttaws–the
Region or the State Hluttaw, the Pyithu Hluttaw and the Amyotha Hluttaw.
In general, voters will have to choose two members for each township at
the Region or the State Hluttaw level. For every national race whose
population is 0.1 percent (1/1000) and above of the national population
and who have no self-administered area in the Region or State concerned
will have to elect one representative of their own race. Voters will have
to elect one member of the Pyithu Hluttaw for each of the townships, and
12 members of the Amyotha Hluttaw from every Region or State. Equality is
ensured for all regions and states regardless of their sizes. T a t m a d
a w representatives numbering one third of the elected members will also
be participating in hluttaws at different levels. They will be elected by
the Commander-in-Chief of Defence Services."

Phyo: What will be the functions of those hluttaws and what are the
elected members going to do for us?

Doe: Hluttaws will present bills concerning the national affairs and
discuss whether to pass them or not. After the discussions„ decisions will
be made through voting. An approved bill becomes a law and it comes into
force after the President has signed it. The' Chief Minister will have to
sign the bill in a Region or a State Hluttaw. As these hluttaws make laws,
they are called legislative hluttaws. A Region or a State Hiuttaw deals
with its own legislative affairs. Self-administered areas have been
designated for the national races with sizable populations in the
respective localities. Leading bodies of the self-administered areas are
entrusted with legislative power. The legislative power is entrusted from
the Union level to Region or State, s elf - administered division and self
administered zone levels. So, the number of hluttaws may be large. But
this process is for the contentment of the great majority of the people of
our country formed with regions and states and a diversity of ethnic
groups. Moreover, it gives way for the representatives chosen by the
locals to effectively serve their native lands. Members of the Pyithu
Hluttaw and the Amyotha Hluttaw will have to elect the President. The
President will form the Cabinet with members he assumes resourceful. So,
these legislative hluttaws can be called the bodies that choose the
administrative institutions of the State.

Phyo: Ohoh! It is the work of holding discussions and making legislative
decisions in the national interest by public-elected representatives.
There is no reason we should not vote. We will have to vote and elect our
own representatives.

Doe: Yes, Uncle yes. We will have self-determination only if we choose our
own representatives for the benefit of our own people. The voting process
may be a little bit complicated, but there are polling staff to help you.
Security measures have been taken systematically, so you do not need to
worry about anything. You can vote peacefully.

Phyo: Sure! We are an elderly couple. I promise that we both will cast
vote on 7 November to see with our own eyes a new peaceful and developed
country before we die.

____________________________________
INTERVIEW

October 22, Democratic Voice of Burma
Aung Htoo, BLC: ‘Than Shwe fears the ICC’ – Dan Withers with Aung Htoo

As calls for Than Shwe to be indicted for war crimes gather momentum, DVB
speaks to exiled Burmese lawyer, Aung Htoo, who heads the Burma Lawyers’
Council. He claims that China’s rise as an international player may indeed
be detrimental to the ruling junta, as it works to maintain its dignity
and ‘abstain’ if the issue reaches the UN Security Council.

Why is a UN probe into crimes against humanity and war crimes in Burma
necessary?

In addition to reports issued by the international human rights
organizations such as the International Committee of Red Cross (ICRC),
Amnesty International (AI), the International Federation of Human Rights
(FIDH), Human Rights Watch (HRW) and others, the reports of UN Special
Rapporteur on Human Rights Situation in Burma, Tomas Quintana, have
indicated that human rights violations in Burma are likely crimes against
humanity and/or war crimes. It has become the responsibility of the
society – national and international alike – to address those heinous
crimes in appropriate ways. If not, justice for victims of crimes will
have been perpetually denied, repeated commission of such heinous crimes
in near future would not be deterred, the rule of law will never prevail,
and, as a result, the rule of the military dictatorship will have been
entrenched and a peaceful democratic transition for Burma only a myth.

How will Burma benefit from such an inquiry?

If the UN Commission of Inquiry (CoI) can operate well inside Burma, the
truth will be uncovered; prevailing impunity in Burma will have been
denied to some extent; society may find ways to address the sufferings of
the victims of heinous crimes; peaceful movements of grassroots people who
are seeking justice will be strengthened; pressure on the ruling military
regime from the national and international community to transform society
may notably increase; the internal conflicts within the ruling military
regime might be exacerbated; and as a result, it may lead to reformation
of security forces such as army, police and intelligent organizations and
justice mechanism, including the judiciary. And finally, legal action
might be taken on the perpetrators of heinous crimes by the International
Criminal Court and a genuine democratic transition for Burma may become a
reality.

Wouldn’t China, which has a seat on the UN Security Council, block moves
to hold the inquiry?

In today’s world, the rule of law has become a convergence of diverse
concepts, adopted by both Western and Eastern societies: one focuses on
individual freedoms whereas another seeks the collective value of society,
despite the existence of mixed practices in many countries. It is proven
that since 1980 China has focused on the importance of the rule of law
despite the fact that it may hesitate to recognize “democracy”. The
commission of heinous crimes in Burma is directly relevant to the issue
arising due to the lack of the rule of law. In addition, under the Chapter
of Fundamental Rights, Article 33 of the Constitution of China stipulates:
“The State respects and preserves human rights.” This is time for the
international community to persuade China to deal with the issues of Burma
from the aspect of the rule of law and human rights.

It is also expected that as China has become an international actor, it
may attempt to maintain its dignity and may not protect the perpetrators
of heinous crimes in Burma, turning a blind eye under whatever
circumstances. If the majority of the international community consistently
highlights the situation of Burma from the aspect of commission of heinous
crimes, China may exercise similar practice by taking a position of
‘abstention’ if there is a motion in the UN Security Council, as was the
case for Sudan.

How could a CoI result in perpetrators of such crimes being held
accountable at the International Criminal Court?

It will depend on the finding of the COI. If its report is comprehensive
enough and if there are prima facie to prosecute perpetrators, the UN
Security Council may refer the situation of Burma to ICC.

What are the chances of a conviction?

It will be relevant only to the efforts of the ICC prosecutor as well as
merits of the case. However, it is noteworthy that the ICC Chief
Prosecutor, Luis Moreno-Ocampo is quite active in exerting efforts for
ending impunity across the world and is also ardent to address the
impunity issue in Burma.

Under the Coalition of the International Criminal Court (CICC)’s
initiation, the representatives of civil society organisations from the
states that founded the ICC held a meeting with the Moreno-Ocampo at the
World Forum Conference Centre at the African Meeting Hall on 23 November
2009. He responded to my question with full interest, stating that he
cannot initiate investigations proprio motu [‘by one’s own volition’]
because Burma has not ratified the Rome Statute as of yet; as well,
because the UN Security Council has not yet referred the situation of
Burma to the ICC.

He did however explain in detail the conditions that might allow
initiation of investigations proprio motu : most importantly, there can be
conditions that will allow the Chief Prosecutor to initiate investigations
proprio motu if he can obtain evidence brought forward against a citizen
or citizens that belong to one of the 110 states that have signed and
ratified the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court, which prove
that that citizen has conspired with and abetted the junta, which itself
has committed international crimes.

There is no doubt that if ICC Prosecutor receives a comprehensive report
from CoI, he and his good office will attempt to prosecute perpetrators of
heinous crimes in Burma.

If the CoI recommended prosecution of members of the Burmese government,
couldn’t they just ignore an arrest warrant as did Sudanese President Omar
al-Bashir?

To answer your question, I have four points:

1. Al-Bashir has not been arrested due to the protection of the African
Union and the Arab League; in Asia there is no regional organisation that
will protect Senior General Than Shwe. I do not believe that ASEAN will
protect him. Nor do I presume that even China will give him protection if
the crimes in Burma continue to become increasingly explicit. Even the
October 2009 UN General Assembly Resolution began to call on the military
regime “to take urgent measures to put an end to violations of
international human rights and humanitarian law”.

2. In Burma there is the charismatic national leader Daw Aung San Suu Kyi
who is well-known around the world; there is the National League for
Democracy, the party that influences the whole nation of Burma; and there
are the 1990 election results. In addition, currently almost all major
ethnic armed resistance organizations – ceasefire as well as
non-ceasefires – stand against the rule of the military dictatorship.
These conditions do not exist in Sudan. Arrest warrant against Senior
General Than Shwe, and other former generals such as Shwe Mann, Thein Sein
and Tin Aung Myint Oo, who were deeply involved in the commission of
heinous crimes, will effectively encourage the democratic movement inside
Burma and across world and the struggle of the ethnic people and
organizations to establish a democratic federal union for Burma.

3. The forthcoming 2010 election in Burma is the result of efforts of the
military dictators to achieve legitimacy to rule the country indefinitely
in accordance with the 2008 constitution. Arrest warrants against those
top generals who have turned into civilians and who will take high
political positions after the 2010 election will seriously damage their
dream for achieving legitimacy under the rule of the military
dictatorship.

4. In addition to Korea and Japan, Bangladesh also became a state party to
the Rome Statute of the ICC in 2010. As an immediate neighbour of Burma,
Bangladesh is accountable to arrest the military leaders. Thailand, which
is another immediate neighbour of Burma, may support the efforts of the
international community to implement the arrest warrant, issued by ICC
with a low profile, so long as Thailand is under the leadership of
democratic party led by incumbent Prime Minister Abhisit. The regional
situation existing for Burma is different from Sudan.

Could the money to be spent on an inquiry be better used elsewhere?

It will depend on the decision of relevant parties, national and
international alike.

Does Than Shwe fear a CoI?

He does. Let me share my experience. The International Federation of Human
Rights (FIDH) and the Burma Lawyers’ Council (BLC) conducted the biggest
seminar on Burma of those held in Bangkok entitled “Advancing Human Rights
and Ending Impunity in Burma” on 4-6 May 2009, with the participation of
over 70 organizations from around the world.

During the seminar period, the military regime issued an arrest warrant
against me and, conspiring with Thai police, sent its military
intelligence working in the Burmese embassy in Bangkok to where the
seminar was being held. Then it attempted to kidnap me, even in the
presence of the international community and human rights organizations.
Immediately after the seminar, I had to hide in Bangkok for three weeks.
Then, with the assistance of FIDH, Thai human rights lawyers, a local
human rights NGO in Bangkok, the Swedish embassy and Thailand’s ministry
of foreign affairs, my family and I were able to leave Bangkok for Sweden
on 23 May 2009, safe and sound.