BurmaNet News, January 25, 2011

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January 25, 2011 Issue #4126

INSIDE BURMA
Irrawaddy: Cabinet members to resign before Parliament opens
Mizzima: Shwe Man seen as pick to become President
DVB: Aid drops to pre-Nargis levels

ON THE BORDER
Guardian (UK): In eastern Burma conflict, medics face the same dangers as
those they treat
UPI: More Rohingya refugees reach Thailand

BUSINESS / TRADE
VOA: Burma’s path to privatization keeps armed forces in economic control
Daily Star (Bangladesh): Move on to buy hydropower from Myanmar
Indo-Asian News Service: Myanmar to launch new private airline

INTERNATIONAL
VOA: Rights group urges pressure on Burma at UN Review

OPINION / OTHER
Forbes (US): A new government for Myanmar (Not) – Tim Ferguson
Irrawaddy: Time to lift economic sanctions – Aung Naing Oo

INTERVIEW
DVB: Nic Dunlop: ‘We must understand the junta’ – Francis Wade


____________________________________
INSIDE BURMA

January 25, Irrawaddy
Cabinet members to resign before Parliament opens – Wai Moe

Government ministers serving under Burma's ruling junta, the State Peace
and Development Council (SPDC), will likely resign from their posts before
the opening session of Parliament on Jan. 31, according to official
sources in the administrative capital of Naypyidaw.

Sources said that up to 40 ministers and deputy ministers are expected to
resign sometime in the coming days. Many are key members of the
junta-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), which claimed
victory in last year's Nov. 7 election.

After the ministers resign, an interim cabinet will be formed by the SPDC,
which is chaired by Snr-Gen Than Shwe. The new cabinet will remain in
place until a new government is formed by a new president—a position
widely expected to go to Than Shwe.

Ahead of the first session of Parliament, the USDP plans to hold a
three-day special meeting beginning on Jan. 27. The party will discuss
final preparations for the convening of Parliament and the process of
choosing the president and two vice presidents and forming a new
government.

Unlike the post-election process in other countries, most significant
shifts are likely to be decided by the junta supremo Than Shwe, whose
orders will be administered through the War Office.

Sources said Than Shwe and other high-ranking officials in Naypyidaw have
been busy for the past month discussing arrangements for the Parliament
and new government.

The current situation in the capital is every complicated, as the junta is
selecting ministers for key posts in the national Parliament, as well as
chief ministers, or governors, for the country's 14 states and regions.

Although sources close to the regime said that several issues remain to be
resolved, none are likely to threaten Than Shwe's absolute hold on power.
“They are just teething problems,” said one source in Naypyidaw.

Among the issues that need to be addressed are changes in the ruling
hierarchy. According to military sources, several leading figures in the
current regime will be sidelined as part of the transition to
quasi-civilian rule.

The sources said that ex-Gen Tin Aung Myint Oo, the junta's Secretary 1,
and the regime's prime minister, ex-Gen Thein Sein, will not be given
major positions because they are reportedly not fit for “heavy duty.”
However, USDP sources said Thein Sein will be keep one key position.

Meanwhile, the Norway-based Democratic Voice of Burma reported on Tuesday
that 1,700 low-ranking officials have been transferred to ministries since
the November elections.

“Actually, the numbers are still uncertain,” said the editor of a
Rangoon-based journal, commenting on the reports. “But we will soon know
which numbers won in the lottery of Burma’s new order.”

____________________________________

January 25, Mizzima News
Shwe Man seen as pick to become President – Myo Thein

New Delhi – According to Naypyidaw observers, retired General Thura Shwe
Man has the best chance to become the new President in the upcoming
Parliament.

The military is eligible to nominate a vice president from the appointed
military representatives in both houses of Parliament, according to the
new constitution, giving Thura Shwe Man an advantage, say observers.

Among the civilian MPs, who are dominated by the Union Solidarity
Development Party members of Parliament, the lower house is expected to
nominate incumbent Prime Minister Thein Sein for vice president, said
another source.

Despite a flurry of recent statements by ethnic parties urging the upper
house to nominate an ethnic member of Parliament as vice president, the
USDP party is likely to nominate a businessman as vice president, said the
source.

However, in local assemblies in states and regions, ethnic MPs are
expected to have a better chance to be elected as chief ministers of the
local governments or speakers of local assemblies, observers said.

The USDP dominates both houses of Parliament with 59 percent in the lower
house and 57 percent in the upper house. Nominees supported by the USDP
will likely become the new president and two vice presidents.

The most eligible candidate for president will be Thura Shwe Man, who
enjoys strong support from the military, said a military source.

Deputy commander in chief of the Armed Forces and No. 2 in the military
hierarchy, Vice Senior General Maung Aye, will soon retire and the new
mandatory retirement age in the armed forces for top brass, excluding
Senior General Than Shwe, will be re-enacted, said the source.

Even though Lieutenant General Myint Aung and Lieutenant General Ko Ko
have been nominated to succeed the commander in chief and the vice
commander in chief, the timeline for their official succession has not
been announced.

Similarly even senior military officers and military observers cannot say
yet which post, if any, Senior General Than Shwe will hold in the future.

According to general speculation, Than Shwe will retain his current senior
general rank and may likely assume additional posts higher than that of
commander in chief, or become a patron of the USDP.

A military officer said that the appointed military MPs will sponsor a
motion in Parliament to pass a law endorsing the new military conscript
law which has been enacted by the junta.

The source said that the key decisions on the division of power in the
national and regional Parliaments will be made in the coming days.

The source also said Myint Swe, the winning USDP candidate from Khanaungto
Township and a former commander of the Bureau of Special Operations, has
been provisionally endorsed as chief minister in the Rangoon area.

____________________________________

January 25, Democratic Voice of Burma
Aid drops to pre-Nargis levels – Francis Wade

Overseas development assistance for Burma has fallen by some 30 percent
since 2008, despite an overall increase in global aid distribution.

The quantity of ODA going into Burma is now lower than Cambodia, despite
having a population three times the size, the UN’s IRIN news agency said.

Aid surged by 170 percent in the aftermath of May 2008’s cyclone Nargis,
Burma’s worst-recorded natural disaster which claimed 140,000 lives and
left 2.4 million homeless. Now however the ODA may only be as much as $US5
per capita.

The figures will do little to alleviate the concerns of observers who say
that Burma’s position as Southeast Asia’s lowest recipient of overseas
aid, despite being the region’s least-developed country, is closely tied
to political, rather than humanitarian, considerations.

Burma ranked 132 out of 169 countries in the UN’s Human Development Index
for 2010, eight places below Cambodia, the second-lowest ranking Southeast
Asian nation.

The majority of Western countries hold sanctions on the Burmese regime,
but critics say that the poor targeting of the embargo effectively amounts
to a humanitarian boycott.

“There is [definitely] an ODA boycott going on, though not on paper,”
Frank Smithuis, founder of Medical Aid Myanmar, a local NGO specialising
in HIV care, told IRIN. “It’s no coincidence that the countries that have
imposed economic sanctions on Myanmar [Burma] are also the countries that
give the least development assistance.”

A recent report by the New York-based Human Rights Watch said that there
are around 500,000 internally displaced people in eastern Burma alone who
struggle to access the already scant aid that reaches their areas of
refuge.

Calls for a review of sanctions on Burma are gaining in volume, although
the US, its strongest proponent, has said there will be no policy change
until the junta shows signs of progress.

But any tangible results from nearly 15 years of blockades are hard to
come by, and the ruling regime has close allies in the neighbourhood that
continue to provide an economic crutch through soaring trade and
investment.

____________________________________
ON THE BORDER

January 25, The Guardian (UK)
In eastern Burma conflict, medics face the same dangers as those they
treat – Alisa Tang

Caring for the displaced in the Burmese jungle – and fleeing with them as
the army advances.

Weighed down with 10kg packs of medical supplies – as well as her clothes,
food and three young children – Hsa Mu Na sets out from her organisation's
headquarters in Mae Sot, Thailand, for five hours by car, four hours by
boat and three days by foot to a conflict-plagued region of Burma where
medical care would be nonexistent were it not for her and her colleagues.

"I have to cross streams, go over mountains and through the jungle to get
there. I sleep in villagers' homes along the way," said Hsa Mu Na, a
36-year-old ethnic Karen health worker. "There's no security, so we can't
travel freely. That is the most difficult thing. There is no security and
no food, so the health problems are serious. There are no services for
obstetric care. It is difficult to transport people who need care."

In parts of Burma where communities constantly uproot themselves to
survive, clinics are not an option, so Hsa Mu Na and the roving medics of
the Back Pack Health Worker Team have become the solution.

Hauling patients in hammocks lashed to bamboo poles and hanging
intravenous fluid bags off branches to treat the sick as they lie on beds
of banana leaves on the forest floor, these local health workers share the
precarious existence of their patients and flee with them as the Burmese
military advances and attacks.

"Instead of setting up permanent infrastructure in this situation, the
programme designed had to be more community-based, even though they are
displaced or mobile," said Dr Cynthia Maung, a founder of Back Pack and of
the 22-year-old Mae Tao Clinic for refugees and migrant workers in Mae
Sot, Thailand. "The area where these people work is in conflict zones.
They are like other villagers, vulnerable to be casualties to malaria and
the same risks as people in the community."

Burma's ruling military junta has long waged war with the country's ethnic
minorities, who for decades have sought autonomy. In the late 1990s the
junta stepped up attacks, razing thousands of villages, displacing half a
million people and laying landmines to prevent communities from returning
to their land.

Established in 1998, Back Pack has recruited health workers from these
communities, and brought them to Mae Sot – a sleepy Thai border town that
serves as a base for Burmese refugee groups. There they are trained by
technical experts from Johns Hopkins School of Public Health and the
American NGO Global Health Access Program (Ghap). Loaded up with several
10kg packs of medical supplies, they are then dispatched across the Moei
river into Burma for days-long journeys by foot back home.

What began as 32 teams of 120 health workers serving 64,000 people in
eastern Burma has expanded to 80 teams – 254 medics, 645 traditional birth
attendants and 360 village health volunteers – addressing the needs of a
190,000-strong population along the eastern and western borders.

Supported by groups including Burma Relief Centre, International Rescue
Committee and Not On Our Watch, Back Pack handled 89,000 cases in 2009, on
a budget of  about $550,000.

Each team leader receives just $33 per month, as a survival stipend to be
shared with others in the field.

The medics are trained to treat 20 common illnesses, including diarrhoea
and pneumonia, as well as malaria, which accounts for a quarter of all
deaths in eastern Burma. They delivered 3,600 babies in 2009, and treated
55 gunshot and 17 landmine victims.

Since Back Pack's founding, nine of its medics and one traditional birth
attendant have been killed by gunfire or landmines. The most recent
fatality was last July, when soldiers burned down Thada Dae village in
Karen state, and shot a Back Pack medic. Several Back Pack workers have
been arrested by Burmese troops, though none are currently in detention.

Every six months, some 60 to 80 team leaders return to Thailand for a
month. As most are not recognised as Burmese citizens and are stateless,
they cross the border illegally, carrying epidemiological data and patient
histories. At the Mae Sot headquarters, they are debriefed and updated on
medical advances.

"In eastern Burma, which may have active conflict or may be unstable,
clinic access may not be available," said Jen Leigh, Ghap's field director
and one of Back Pack's many partners who graduated from the Johns Hopkins
public health school. "We know the best practices, and we use the evidence
to help decide what is the best intervention in this setting."

Back Pack has trained 1,300 health workers for its own ranks and
community-based organisations such as the Burma Medical Association and
Karen Department of Health and Welfare, which provide care in more stable
areas.

Back Pack also mobilises to help elsewhere as need arises. After cyclone
Nargis struck Burma's southern delta in 2008, they formed the Emergency
Assistance Team to deliver food, water, shelter and health services. When
people fleeing Burmese troops crossed into Thailand in June 2009, they
created the Karen Community-Based Organisation Emergency Relief Committee.

"For myself, I understand that this is my task, these are my people, this
is my community. When they are suffering, I have to solve this problem,"
said Mahn Mahn, Back Pack's secretary and one of the driving forces among
the Mae Sot-based Burmese in exile. "When there is oppression beside you,
you are not free. If someone needs help, is still suffering, you are not
free."

____________________________________

January 25, United Press International
More Rohingya refugees reach Thailand

Bangkok -- A boat carrying 67 Rohingya refugees claiming persecution in
Myanmar, the second such in two days, has landed at Thailand, officials
said.

Earlier 91 refugees arrived during the weekend, about two years after a
similar incident in which Thailand was accused of inhumanely turning the
Rohingya back to sea, CNN reported.

The refugees were in Thai police custody in Satun Province, the report said.

"I can be anywhere, except in Myanmar. If I went back I would be dead,"
one of the refugees told CNN in a telephone interview, adding he had left
his wife and two children in Myanmar, formerly Burma, in search of a
better life.

Muhammad Fariq, 10, said he had paid a large sum to get on the boat, whose
original destination was Malaysia, but the boat drifted for 15 days before
reaching Thai shores.

While Thai authorities were yet to decide the fate of the refugees, a Thai
police official said they probably would be returned to Myanmar.

Phuket Wan Tourism News reported Thai authorities fear if no acceptable
solution is found, more such refugees may be encouraged to follow the
latest arrivals.

____________________________________
BUSINESS / TRADE

January 25, Voice of America
Burma’s path to privatization keeps armed forces in economic control – Ron
Corben

Bangkok – Burma’s military is pressing on with the privatization of state
assets as part of economic reforms. Many critics say the program simply
transfers assets to the military government’s allies and maintains its
economic control.

Burma’s is one of Asia’s poorest countries, and the military government
dominates the economy.

But the government is moving forward with economic reforms, including the
sale of up to 90 percent of state assets.

While details are sketchy, media reports in Rangoon say more than 400
state-owned assets, including airports, buildings, gasoline stations and
land close to the main port have been sold.

Douglas Clayton, managing director of the investment fund Leopard Capital,
based in Cambodia, says privatization is a step toward greater efficiency.

"Putting an economy into private assets is likely to lead to a
better-managed economy,” Clayton said. “It’s a step toward modernizing
Burma and no matter how it is done the outcome is likely to be no worse
than it is now and possibly much better. There will be many beneficiaries
of a liberalized economy, so there will be more impetus for further
reform."

But some Burma experts say privatization is part of the military’s effort
to maintain its hold on power. They say most of the assets have gone to
business people tied to the military, in an effort to build support before
last year’s elections.

Parties close to the military won about 80 percent of the elected seats in
November’s elections, the first in 20 years. The constitution additionally
sets aside 25 percent of the total seats for the military. The parliament
opens next week.

"That whole fire sale of assets that they had prior to the election was to
shore up support of some of the big entrepreneurs,” says Alison Vicary, an
economist from Australia’s Macquarie University. “The airport, for
example, was given to those entrepreneurs that have been aligned with the
regime for years. So obviously the regime has some idea that these guys
need to be kept onside. How to manage that into the future is another
issue."

Some Burma experts note that the buyers of state assets include
military-run corporations such as Union of Myanmar Economic Holdings,
which controls the army’s pension fund, and the Myanmar Economic
Corporation, which oversees funds from the sale of state-owned
enterprises.

"The wave of privatization that has taken place – has been a move to
transform public assets into personal property of the military regime and
their cronies including the leaders of the Union Solidarity and
Development Party which is the biggest party backing the regime," said
Debbie Stothardt, the spokeswoman for rights group Alternative ASEAN
Network.

Bertil Lintner, an author and commentator on Burma, agrees the sell-off
leaves much of the economy under military control. But he says it may open
the way for private investment.

"People will say look at all these new opportunities here,” said Lintner.
“Privately owned companies and organizations – a restructured economy and
so on; but also the economy is so bad that they have to do something."

Peter Gallo, who is with the anti-money laundering consulting firm Pacific
Risk in Hong, warns that foreign investors must proceed carefully in
Burma, despite the privatization. The United States, the European Union
and other governments have imposed economic sanctions against the
government to push for political reform.

"The big practical issues really are the rule of law and human rights
situation,” Gallo said. “You can have any kind of government you like;
doesn’t matter whether it’s allegedly democratically elected or not but if
there is flagrant abuse of human rights in the country and that is well
known – the international condemnation is going to continue."

Several large Burmese corporations, such as the Union of Myanmar Economic
Holdings, are on the U.S. sanctions blacklist.

Rights activist Stothardt says the reforms do little to improve life for
most Burmese.

"Most people in Burma lack access to clean water basic electricity, to
basic health and education,” Stothardt said. “So this whole move to
privatize all the assets of the country is mainly to turn public assets
into the personal property of military leaders and their cronies, and it’s
still not going to improve the situation for the ordinary Burmese person."

Burmese officials and some regional political analysts say that Western
sanctions are responsible for the country’s poverty. The Association of
Southeast Asian Nations, of which Burma is a member, wants the sanctions
lifted.

ASEAN leaders say the elections and the release of opposition leader Aung
San Suu Kyi from detention show Burma is making progress on political
reforms. As a result, ASEAN says, the sanctions should go.

But rights groups say the changes fall far short for true reform,
especially since Burma’s military holds more than 2,000 political
prisoners and maintains a tight grip on the economy.

____________________________________

January 25, Daily Star (Bangladesh)
Move on to buy hydropower from Myanmar

Bangladesh has initiated a dialogue with a Myanmarese company to buy
hydropower from Rakhaine State of the neighbouring country.

“Discussion is going on and I myself had talks with the company officials
about importing electricity,” Foreign Minister Dipu Moni said at a press
conference in Dhaka yesterday.

The private firm has been awarded contracts to set up two hydropower
projects, mentioned the minister adding, of the two, one 80 megawatt plant
will start production in 2015 and another 800 megawatt project will be
operative in 2018.

“I met with them on January 23 in Yangoon during my visit there to attend
the 13th ministerial meeting of Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multisectoral
Technical and Economic Cooperation [BIMSTEC] and the company agreed to
sell hydropower on completion of the projects.”

She mentioned that import of electricity from Myanmar would require two
grid lines in either side of the border. However, pricing of electricity
is yet to be finalised.

Referring to her meeting with the Myanmar foreign minister, Dipu Moni said
various bilateral issues including repatriation of both registered and
undocumented Myanmar citizens and easing visa regime were discussed.

Replying to a query she said the Myanmar authorities agreed to repatriate
its refugees as early as possible. She said 28,000 Myanmar refugees are in
Bangladeshi camps while the figure of unregistered citizens might be 3 to
5 lakh.

Regarding decision to set up permanent secretariat of BIMSTEC in Dhaka,
she said it's a big achievement for Bangladesh and hoped the secretariat
will be operational within this year. However, the construction of the
permanent building will take a few more years, she added.

The minister termed Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's recent visit to UAE
successful.

The premier had talks with her UAE counterpart Sheikh Mohammad Bin Rashid
al Maktoum and the foreign minister. The UAE has agreed to assist
developing infrastructure and setting up oil refinery in Bangladesh, noted
the minister.

About issuing Machine Readable Passports (MRP) to the Bangladeshi
expatriates in UAE, she said Bangladesh missions in UAE will issue the
modern passport to meet the December 31 deadline set by UAE.

If we miss the deadline, the UAE authorities have agreed to consider
extending the time limit, she added.

Presently there are about more than seven lakh Bangladeshi workers in UAE.

Asked about the fate of Bangladeshi mariners on board the hijacked ship MV
Jahan Moni, the minister said all of them are in good health and efforts
are underway to free them.

Efforts are underway also to rescue five Bangladeshi workers abducted by
Afghan criminals, stated the minister adding, the government is in regular
contact with the Afghanistan authorities.

____________________________________

January 25, Indo-Asian News Service
Myanmar to launch new private airline

Yangon – Asian Wings, a new private airline in Myanmar will be launched
Thursday that will provide domestic and chartered services.

Two 70-seat TR 72-500 aircraft have arrived in Yangon for use in domestic
flight services that would to cover 11 destinations, Xinhua reported
citing the local Weekly Eleven News.

The Asian Wings airline is also planning international flights.

At present, there are three domestic airlines in Myanmar - state-owned
Myanmar Airways (MA), private-run Air Mandalay and Air Bagan - and one
international airline, Myanmar Airways International (MAI).

There are also 13 foreign airlines flying to Yangon, which includes Air
China, China Southern Airline, Thai Airways International, Indian
Airlines, Qatar Airways, Silk Air, Malaysian Airlines, Bangkok Airways,
Mandarin, Jetstar Asia, Phuket Airline, Thai Air Asia and Vietnam
Airlines.

____________________________________
INTERNATIONAL

January 25, Voice of America
Rights group urges pressure on Burma at UN Review

A London-based rights group is urging the UN Human Rights Council to
pressure Burma to address alleged human rights violations when the body
reviews that nation's rights record this week.

The group Article 19 says the ruling Burmese military is one of the
world's worst violators of freedom of expression, despite holding a rare
election last year and releasing pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi.

Article 19 spokesman Oliver Spencer says the group has met with several
members of the Geneva-based Human Rights Council to encourage them to
press Burma's delegation on freedom of expression.

The council will discuss the Burmese human rights situation Thursday as
part of a Universal Periodic Review - a four-year long examination of the
rights records of all U.N. member states, that began in 2006. The review
gives Burma's military an opportunity to present its human rights report
to the council's 47-member states.

Spencer says the Burmese election of November 2010, the country's first in
20 years, was "not democratic" because of the absence of a free press and
electoral laws that made it impossible for opposition parties to operate
freely. The Burmese military freed Aung San Suu Kyi from years of house
arrest days after the vote.

Spencer also says a new constitution adopted by the Burmese government in
2008 will not enable democracy to grow because it guarantees the military
a role in what he says should be a civilian government.

____________________________________
OPINION / OTHER

January 24, Forbes (US)
A new government for Myanmar (Not) – Tim Ferguson

Burma is back in the news, with the looming opening on Monday of a
kangaroo legislature in the isolated capital of Naypyitaw. This is the
poisoned fruit of a manipulated  election by which the ruling junta of
what calls itself Myanmar aimed to buy some rare legitimacy.

The generals followed on their opposition-light vote by granting a
relaxation of strictures on Nobel winner Aung San Suu Kyi, the prime
symbol of dissent in a sad land. But any real popular resistance seems
destined to be crushed anew.

The New York Times Sunday described the latest video evidence of
repression, a documentary about a lapsed member of the 400,000-strong
military that tightly rules the country. This follows on an earlier work,
Burma VJ, which was nominated for an Oscar award last year. That
production used smuggled footage to capture the 2007 Saffron uprising led
by Burmese monks. I viewed the film after meeting at a New York reception
three of the monks who helped lead that revolt. The trio, who escaped from
Burma and reached the U.S., now live in Brooklyn and are trying to
maintain their vows while pressing for reforms in their homeland. (An
article about them, in the January 2011 issue of First Things magazine, is
behind a paywall.)

It is through diligent monitoring and campaigning, mostly by outside
non-governmental organizations that furtively keep tabs, that the 
predations of Burma’s military rulers are kept in the public eye.
Certainly officials organizations ranging from the United Nations to the
ASEAN group of Southeast Asia nations (which admitted Burma to membership
in 1997) have been of limp use in supporting Burmese democrats and ethnic
minorities at odds with the generals. Cyclone Nargis in 2008 was a
reminder of how useless these bodies have been rendered.

Burma has suffered through nearly 50 years of this brand of dictatorship.
An earlier military group seized power in 1962, and resisters have been
outflanked or beaten down ever since, particularly in a 1988 uprising and
the one followed it (also beginning on Sept. 18) in 2007. In reining in an
admittedly splintered populace–with resistance movements that themselves
can be violent–the Burmese regime has mixed ruthless muscle with the
pretense of democracy.

It held the bogus elections Nov. 7 to set up the next stage of the tyranny
(rumor is that ruling Gen. Than Shwe will appear Monday as president
before the new legislature) and, having done that, let Aung San See Kyi
free of house arrest in Rangoon. (Her surprise victory in a 1990 vote was
what triggered the latest 20 years of harsh order.) How many of her fellow
Burmese she can now reach in a society where electronic communication is
stifled is anyone’s guess–probably few.

The general case for continued despair over both the plight of the Burmese
and the unhelpful actions of outside parties is made in this recent
posting by veteran Southeast Asia journalist Bertil Lindner, and
buttressed by the latest country report from Human Rights Watch.

For now, the civilized world will simply watch how this ruse plays out,
and what part international entities, especially the governments of China
and India, play in it.

____________________________________

January 25, Irrawaddy
Time to lift economic sanctions – Aung Naing Oo

Sanctions are political tools, and so it is not wrong to consider them
from a political point of view. That was what I did in the early 90s,
hoping that the imposition of sanctions on the Burmese military government
would bring about changes necessary for democratization in our country.

Opposition groups celebrated when the first US sanctions legislation on
Burma were imposed in 1997. And I congratulated Kent Wiedemann, the then
Chargé d’Affaires of the US embassy in Rangoon, when he told me the good
news in Bangkok.

But at the time I did not understand sanctions clearly. Nor did I think
about their domestic, geopolitical and economic implications. I just
wanted to punish the Burmese military government.

Six years later, I began to have second thoughts. Sanctions were not
producing the desired results. Aung San Suu Kyi was back under house
arrest following the attack on her motorcade at Depayin in 2003. The
possibility of political negotiations—which had existed prior to the
attack—was out the window, and the Burmese government had hardened its
stance. Then there were more sanctions from the West, pushing the generals
toward its eastern neighbors who were not particularly enthusiastic about
democratic changes in the country in the same way Western governments
expected change from Burma.

As Aung San Suu Kyi and her party, the National League for Democracy, has
repeatedly emphasized the need for national reconciliation, it is now time
to search for the pathways toward it.

In this regard, I have argued that sanctions are an obstacle to national
reconciliation. This is because the sanctions—particularly the visa ban on
all the top leaders above brigadier general-level in the Burmese army, as
well as their family members—have been designed to punish the entire
leadership of an important national institution of the country that
democratic leaders are hoping to reconcile with. Sanctions have become a
major hindrance to any efforts of trust-building required for the stated
goal of reconciliation.

Moreover, sanctions have not only failed to bring about positive political
changes in Burma, but have also led the Burmese generals to blame the
opposition groups for the country’s serious economic woes—a convenient
excuse for the government to try to distract attention from its own grave
policy failures. This has further widened the divide between the
government and the opposition, adversely affecting the prospects for
reconciliation.

I concur with those who have argued that sanctions are not Burma’s main
problem. It is no secret who is responsible for Burma’s ills. Burma has
experienced a long period of economic stagnation—26 years of an isolated
“Socialist economy” and 22 years of “Command economy” since 1962. Under
the circumstances, the lifting of sanctions will not lead to any dramatic
improvement in Burma’s economy.

However, lifting sanctions are important not only for both political and
economic reasons. It is extremely important in a sense that opens the
potential for Burma to re-balance its relationship by connecting with the
Western world, not only in terms of ending the dependent relationship to
her neighbors, but also in restoring much-needed development cooperation.

The latter is much more critical now as numerous civil society groups have
emerged in Burma over the last decade in building the communities. They
have strengthened the social capital and perhaps even pushed up the
process of reconciliation in the bottom-up fashion. They are in dire need
of Western help and several sanction regulations have unnecessarily held
up Western support for such critical linkages.

Against this backdrop, several political parties that won seats in the
election are now calling for the repeal of sanctions. The latest calls
have also come from the Association of the Southeast Asian Nations
(Asean).

While it is nothing new that Asean has wanted the sanctions lifted, the
call from ethnic and pro-democracy political parties marks a serious
political shift. These calls could not have come at a more critical time.

In order to heed their calls, we should approach the question not from a
political standpoint but from a perspective of national reconciliation. I
say this because sanctions as a tool of “political bargaining” against the
Burmese military government have never worked. Put differently, the
opposition groups will not get anything meaningful in terms of concessions
from the Burmese military government by maintaining sanctions.

As a matter of fact, even the US has conceded that sanctions have not
induced positive changes in Burma. Since the Western governments have
limited leverage on the regime, the sanctions became less effective. And
the regime always has the upper hand in evading the sanctions by trading
more with its neighboring countries.

The election last year is likely to reinforce this trend. A new parliament
will be sworn in at the end of January and a new government will be formed
soon after that. These factors—even if they are considered to be nominal
domestically—will be the key signals for regional economic powers to
invest more in Burma. With more foreign investments coming from the
region, the chances of effectiveness of sanctions from far-flung places
are even slimmer.

Proposed large-scale industrial development projects such as the Dawei
Deep Seaport, reported to be worth a staggering US $54 billion, and other
investments from within the region are waiting in the wing. Big
multinationals are sounding out opinions of their governments’ policy
toward Burma in a bid to invest in the country.

So, on a not-so-positive note, but under the circumstances, the situation
may even offer only a small window of opportunity or a short period of
time to use sanctions as a political or reconciliation tool before any
shred of the effectiveness of sanctions is left. And from long-term
economic development imperatives, Burma needs the right mix of
investments, not just from its neighbors but from the rest of the world.

Sanctions might have worked if they have been truly multilateral and if
Burma and its economy had been dependent on the West, such as in the case
of South Africa. But the Burmese economy had very little trade with the
West. More importantly, the regime has had friendly neighbors whose trade
and investments—mainly in extractive industries, such as oil and gas,
timber and mining precious stones, and an array of large-scale development
projects—have acted as comfortable cushions against Western sanctions,
having hit businesses that may have created more jobs and opportunities
for a broader section of people.

The arguments above are not about justice. Nor are they about gaining
ground politically. Nor will lifting sanctions see the justice done; it is
about having a reality check and using the currently ineffective sanctions
effectively for the sake of opening a possible avenue for national
reconciliation.

As such, the call to repeal sanctions may be done as a gesture of goodwill
to the nation in the name of reconciliation or in recognition that
sanctions have contributed very little to the stated objectives.

Aung Naing Oo is the Deputy-director of the Vahu Development Institute, an
independent organization working on policy research, advocacy and
training. The opinions expressed here are his own.
____________________________________
INTERVIEW

January 25, Democratic Voice of Burma
Nic Dunlop: ‘We must understand the junta’ – Francis Wade

British-born photojournalist Nic Dunlop first came to attention in the
late 1990s as the man who tracked down Khmer Rouge leader and head of the
infamous S-21 torture centre, Comrade Duch, in rural Cambodia. Dunlop’s
discovery of Duch eventually led to his conviction on charges of crimes
against humanity, becoming the first of Pol Pot’s henchmen to be
sentenced. Later, Dunlop turned his attention to Burma, and has spent more
than a decade documenting the regime and its atrocities. The recent film,
Burma Soldier, co-directed by Dunlop, Annie Sundberg and Ricki Stern, and
co-produced by LeBrocquy Fraser Ltd and Break-Thru, tells the story of Myo
Myint, a former Burmese army soldier turned pro-democracy activist.

Tell us about how the idea for the film came about

Many years ago I started working on Burma and it was over a period of 10
years taking photographs for what I hoped would be a graphic book about
the dictatorship that it occurred to me that we know so little about the
military. It was very difficult to get photos of them inside Burma, which
only increased my interest. Everyone talks about what’s wrong with Burma,
but very few people reflect on what it is that created the Burmese
military – it’s as if they arrived from outer space. And if you could peel
back the layer of a brutal dictatorship then you’d have an oriental idyll
of a Buddhist paradise where people just wanted to go about their lives.
It’s that kind of picture-perfect image of Southeast Asia that so many
Westerners have. And nobody seemed to be very interested in what created
this army of occupation, so during my many travels and interviews with
refugees, dissidents, and people inside the country I’d always ask this
question and people often didn’t have anything close to an answer.

So I realised what I needed to do was meet former Burmese troops who were
willing to talk about why they joined the army, what it was like, what
they were taught in training, how they viewed the ethnic minorities and
civil war, and so on. And it was during this research that I was at the
AAPP [Assistance Association for Political Prisoners] office in Mae Sot
and I was introduced by Bo Kyi, the president, to Myo Myint, who was a
former political prisoner but who had an extraordinary story to tell: in
his previous incarnation he’d been a soldier in the Burmese army and had
grown up in a military family in Rangoon, and I found somebody who could
explain not only about why people join the military, but could also
include the Burmese civil and the quest for democracy in a single story.
Very often one of the problems with the coverage of Burma is that there’s
a great separation between the civil war, which runs central to the
Burmese crisis, and the issue of democratisation, which is symbolised by
Aung San Suu Kyi. I wanted to bring the two together in a single story,
and Myo Myint’s story is extraordinary for many reasons, but particularly
so because you could do that.

Is there a gap in media coverage of Burma – or indeed a misunderstanding
of the ‘other side’ – that your film will fill?

That was the intention, but people who watch it can assess for themselves.
It’s come to the point now that much of the coverage by outsiders is as
much about projection as it is about the real situation. Now, Aung San Suu
Kyi pitched against the generals isn’t an incorrect reading; it’s just
incredibly simplistic. But being complex doesn’t mean it has to be boring
or off-putting, as I think it is for a lot of journalists. So when the
Karen walked into Myawaddy recently it was reported by many as though it’s
a completely separate sideshow to the crisis, whereas it runs right to the
centre of what is wrong with Burma. So Aung San Suu Kyi’s cult-like status
in the West is in danger of creating a more nuanced understanding of the
problem. I have high regard for her and her courageous stance, but she
isn’t the only figure in Burma. I understand the media well and I
understand how people gravitate towards that reading of the crisis, and my
point is to get beyond that and start talking about the other parts of
this jigsaw puzzle. And the military is so key, yet so unknown, and so I
wanted to open up new avenues of debate.

Is the sacrosanct air surrounding Suu Kyi limiting the progress of the
pro-democracy movement?

I don’t know if it’s limiting progress but I think it’s got to the point
where the fate of one woman is drowning out the fate of millions. And
whilst I understand that, and it makes sense on one level, there is an
urgency to talk about the civil war. Although there are ceasefires amongst
many [armed] groups in Burma and there isn’t same degree of fighting that
there was 20 years ago, the tensions still remain – nothing has been
resolved and if anything it’s getting slightly worse, and I think that
needs to be addressed.

Why is it so important that the wider context of Burma – including what
pushes such people to do such things – is understood before we can hope
for transition?

It’s important of course that we empathise with the victims of oppression,
but it’s just as important, if not more so, that we learn something of the
perpetrator and that we recognise that we all have the potential to be
both, perhaps even at the same time. The perpetrators are always ‘them’,
and never ‘us’, and if we approach these problems with a degree of
humility there’s much greater room for understanding and progression. What
happens, with the Burmese military particularly, is that they are vilified
for what they’ve done, and rightly so, but they are a fact of life.
They’re not simply going to go back to the barracks because of the moral
condemnation and outrage; they have to look at the situation realistically
without losing sight of the principles that are embodied by Aung San Suu
Kyi’s stance.

So with Myo Myint, he is possibly a perpetrator, but certainly a victim,
and I think that that’s a very healthy place for outsiders to realise that
the Burmese army is not made up of baby killers, but that they’re ordinary
men. How many of us can answer the question with any certainty of how we’d
respond if we were in a situation where our lives were under threat every
day; where we’d been indoctrinated with the idea that any Burman is
inferior? I just think it’s important, in fact essential, that we engage
with that world view.

Have you ever received criticism for talking about people like Duch, or
indeed Myo Myint, with a degree of sympathy?

No. All I can do is just be as honest as I can with the truth of the story
as I see it – if you don’t like it, then fine. It’s just like the fact
that we may have relatives who are soldiers in Iraq or Afghanistan, and
who knows what they’ve been doing? The victims’ world view is not the
dominant, and shouldn’t be the dominant, worldview, and as in the case of
the court of law, which is a good metaphor, what you’re trying to do is
present cases from as many different angles as you can and hopefully get
to some sort of truth. But there are no absolutes, and that’s why what I
thought was important about the Duch case and with Burma, and any place
with a crisis of this magnitude, is that there are many contributing
factors that have to be taken into account – we can’t project what we
think Burma is or should be about. That’s extremely dangerous; that’s what
the regime does, and in the most brutal way.