[LEAPSECS] How good could civil timekeeping be?

[Rob Seaman]

Um - somebody else want to weigh in here on the scientific method?

Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.


> So far I have yet to see one single example of non-astronomy software

> that needs changed to handle loss of leap-seconds.


And you have access to ATC and nuclear control systems?  Has anyone at  
Boeing or GE even been informed of the looming doom of mean solar time?


> Given how much software we have seen between the two of us, that

> brings the probability of finding any such software well below 1%.


Please read Feynman's description of the Challenger investigation.   
Your statistics are bogus.


> In the other corner, I can point to any and all software that

> includes <time.h> as candidate software that needs to be audited

> for correct leap second handling.


Ok.  So that makes two classes of software for the inventory.  What  
classes of software shall we omit?


> Purely from a cost perspective, any reasonable economist will at

> this point lean heavily towards throwing leap-seconds out.


"Reasonable economist"?  Thanks for the chuckle.  Ask a risk  
management expert.

Here's a scenario.  An accident occurs.  Lawyers for the plaintiffs or  
for any of the injured parties (passengers or whoever) find out that  
no notification was sent following a change to a timekeeping  
standard.  Or perhaps a detailed memo was sent - but the defendant  
never performed a risk management assessment.  Let's imagine the  
accident had nothing to do with the timekeeping standard.  How would  
this be proved?

And who would the lawyers go after?


> The first thing you have to do, is turn the "virtually zero"



> into "non-zero" by finding at least one piece of software outside

> the realm of astronomy, which would be adversely affected by the

> discontinuation of leap-seconds.


I am (obviously) not the one pushing the initiative for change.  The  
responsibility for making a case falls on the party pressing an  
issue.  A coherent risk analysis is precisely the way to make their  
case and mitigate future liability.


Rob Seaman
NOAO