[LEAPSECS] LEAPSECS Digest, Vol 45, Issue 1

[Finkleman, Dave]

This is my first post, so I'm not sure if it gets through.  

Several of you are following the leap second campaign that Ken
Seidelmann, John Seago, and I rejuvenated as the Oct ITU-R meeting
approaches.  My goal is not to disenfranchise those who would be
disadvantaged if the leap second is eliminated.  I think that Steve
commented on the "open" conference call meeting of the US delegation.
There was some accommodation in that they agreed to consider our
alternative wording of the justification for the US position.  I am not
holding my breath.  I have taken advantage of my ISO connection to
enlist support overseas.  (I know that Poul-Henning is over at least a
couple of seas.)  I believe that China, Brazil, Germany, and the UK
support keeping the leap second.  There will also be an op-ed in Space
News shortly.  This just to keep you up to speed.

Poul-Henning suggested scheduling leap seconds well in advance so that
software could hard wire the process without operator intervention.  He
suggested 10 years.  I do not know if he was serious, but I have pulled
the thread.  Those that I have access to claim that we can estimate up
to about four months in advance with quantified uncertainty.  Quantified
uncertainty is my never to be fulfilled quest.  It applies to
everything, and no one but the weather man can deal with the fact that
everything is uncertain and that knowing the uncertainty is essential to
responding appropriately.

So, I ask those in this group how far in the future can we predict the
need for a leap second (with quantified uncertainty), and would it help
overcome some implementation issues if a well conceived warning cycle
were implemented as far in advance as such estimates might permit.

Dave Finkleman
Senior Scientist
Center for Space Standards and Innovation
Analytical Graphics, Inc.
7150 Campus Drive
Colorado Springs, CO 80920
 
Phone:  719-510-8282 or 719-321-4780
Fax:  719-573-9079
 
Discover CSSI data downloads, technical webinars, publications, and
outreach events at www.CenterForSpace.com.

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Today's Topics:

   1. Re: h2g2 (Tony Finch)
   2. Re: h2g2 (Ian Batten)
   3. Re: h2g2 (Daniel R. Tobias)
   4. Re: h2g2 (Poul-Henning Kamp)
   5. Re: h2g2 (Ian Batten)
   6. Re: h2g2 (Poul-Henning Kamp)
   7. Re: h2g2 (Daniel R. Tobias)
   8. Re: h2g2 (Tony Finch)


----------------------------------------------------------------------

Message: 1
Date: Wed, 1 Sep 2010 20:02:03 +0100
From: Tony Finch <dot at dotat.at>
Subject: Re: [LEAPSECS] h2g2
To: Leap Second Discussion List <leapsecs at leapsecond.com>
Message-ID:
	<alpine.LSU.2.00.1009011959480.31615 at hermes-1.csi.cam.ac.uk>
Content-Type: TEXT/PLAIN; charset=US-ASCII

On Fri, 27 Aug 2010, Ian Batten wrote:

>

> Although unrelated, it would also open up the whole "moving the UK to

WET" can

> of worms, which has become distinctly toxic because of the

implications for

> Scotland.


The UK is currently on WET (same as Portugal). There is a small but
noisy
lobby that wants to move to CET (same as France) who pipe up every year
in the run-up to the clocks going back.

Tony.
-- 
f.anthony.n.finch  <dot at dotat.at>  http://dotat.at/
HUMBER THAMES DOVER WIGHT PORTLAND: NORTH BACKING WEST OR NORTHWEST, 5
TO 7,
DECREASING 4 OR 5, OCCASIONALLY 6 LATER IN HUMBER AND THAMES. MODERATE
OR
ROUGH. RAIN THEN FAIR. GOOD.


------------------------------

Message: 2
Date: Wed, 1 Sep 2010 21:13:11 +0100
From: Ian Batten <igb at batten.eu.org>
Subject: Re: [LEAPSECS] h2g2
To: Leap Second Discussion List <leapsecs at leapsecond.com>
Message-ID: <255C103C-1629-4486-8D4A-6685EA6F54B9 at batten.eu.org>
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=US-ASCII; format=flowed; delsp=yes


On 1 Sep 2010, at 20:02, Tony Finch wrote:


> On Fri, 27 Aug 2010, Ian Batten wrote:

>>

>> Although unrelated, it would also open up the whole "moving the UK  

>> to WET" can

>> of worms, which has become distinctly toxic because of the  

>> implications for

>> Scotland.

>

> The UK is currently on WET (same as Portugal). There is a small but  

> noisy

> lobby that wants to move to CET (same as France) who pipe up every  

> year

> in the run-up to the clocks going back.


My mistake.  I was on an airport flying from CET to WET as I was  
typing...

ian


------------------------------

Message: 3
Date: Wed, 01 Sep 2010 19:55:49 -0400
From: "Daniel R. Tobias" <dan at tobias.name>
Subject: Re: [LEAPSECS] h2g2
To: Leap Second Discussion List <leapsecs at leapsecond.com>
Message-ID: <4C7EE805.11354.3A7F29F0 at dan.tobias.name>
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=US-ASCII

On 1 Sep 2010 at 20:02, Tony Finch wrote:


> On Fri, 27 Aug 2010, Ian Batten wrote:

> >

> > Although unrelated, it would also open up the whole "moving the UK

to WET" can

> > of worms, which has become distinctly toxic because of the

implications for

> > Scotland.

> 

> The UK is currently on WET (same as Portugal). There is a small but

noisy

> lobby that wants to move to CET (same as France) who pipe up every

year

> in the run-up to the clocks going back.


If the time zone boundaries were drawn with any sort of logic with 
respect to keeping the times close to the natural solar time in each 
location, then France and Spain would join the UK and Portugal in 
WET, rather than the UK shifting the other way.


-- 
== Dan ==
Dan's Mail Format Site: http://mailformat.dan.info/
Dan's Web Tips: http://webtips.dan.info/
Dan's Domain Site: http://domains.dan.info/




------------------------------

Message: 4
Date: Thu, 02 Sep 2010 06:36:42 +0000
From: "Poul-Henning Kamp" <phk at phk.freebsd.dk>
Subject: Re: [LEAPSECS] h2g2
To: Leap Second Discussion List <leapsecs at leapsecond.com>
Message-ID: <66834.1283409402 at critter.freebsd.dk>

In message <4C7EE805.11354.3A7F29F0 at dan.tobias.name>, "Daniel R. Tobias"
writes

:



>If the time zone boundaries were drawn with any sort of logic with 

>respect to keeping the times close to the natural solar time in each 

>location, then France and Spain would join the UK and Portugal in 

>WET, rather than the UK shifting the other way.


One of the major objectives of EU is to make trade easier and that is
why they want as few timezones as possible, ideally only one.

That is the logic applied, earths orbit has very little, if anything,
to do with it.

-- 
Poul-Henning Kamp       | UNIX since Zilog Zeus 3.20
phk at FreeBSD.ORG         | TCP/IP since RFC 956
FreeBSD committer       | BSD since 4.3-tahoe    
Never attribute to malice what can adequately be explained by
incompetence.


------------------------------

Message: 5
Date: Thu, 2 Sep 2010 07:56:47 +0100
From: Ian Batten <igb at batten.eu.org>
Subject: Re: [LEAPSECS] h2g2
To: Leap Second Discussion List <leapsecs at leapsecond.com>
Message-ID: <A2091D42-6F8A-4A3A-A513-EF7B195D4301 at batten.eu.org>
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=US-ASCII; format=flowed; delsp=yes


On 2 Sep 2010, at 07:36, Poul-Henning Kamp wrote:


> In message <4C7EE805.11354.3A7F29F0 at dan.tobias.name>, "Daniel R.  

> Tobias" writes

> :

>

>> If the time zone boundaries were drawn with any sort of logic with

>> respect to keeping the times close to the natural solar time in each

>> location, then France and Spain would join the UK and Portugal in

>> WET, rather than the UK shifting the other way.

>

> One of the major objectives of EU is to make trade easier and that is

> why they want as few timezones as possible, ideally only one.



I'm slightly surprised that no-one has suggested adopting the Indian  
solution (UTC+4h30m), which is ideal for political areas that are  
about 30 degrees east to west, and switching the EU to UTC+30m (plus,  
or not, daylight saving in both cases).  I suspect that if you take  
each EU country and multiply its population by the error between solar  
and civil time, and then minimise that function, you'd end up  
somewhere around that value.  Portugal has tried CET, but is currently  
back on WET, and the UK is muttering about CET: in both cases, UTC+30m  
would be a good compromise between solar time and consistency.  It  
would be a problem wrt the US, but India copes, and conversely it  
would make it easier with respect to India.

We could drift there by applying 1800 leap seconds, one a night for  
five years :-)

ian


------------------------------

Message: 6
Date: Thu, 02 Sep 2010 06:59:03 +0000
From: "Poul-Henning Kamp" <phk at phk.freebsd.dk>
Subject: Re: [LEAPSECS] h2g2
To: Leap Second Discussion List <leapsecs at leapsecond.com>
Message-ID: <67003.1283410743 at critter.freebsd.dk>

In message <A2091D42-6F8A-4A3A-A513-EF7B195D4301 at batten.eu.org>, Ian
Batten wri
tes:


>I'm slightly surprised that no-one has suggested adopting the Indian  

>solution (UTC+4h30m), which is ideal for political areas that are  

>about 30 degrees east to west, and switching the EU to UTC+30m (plus,  

>or not, daylight saving in both cases).


I can tell you exactly why:

Nobody but scottish farmers have ever raised the position of the
sun in the sky, relative to the hands on the clock, as an argument
with respect to timezones in EU.

-- 
Poul-Henning Kamp       | UNIX since Zilog Zeus 3.20
phk at FreeBSD.ORG         | TCP/IP since RFC 956
FreeBSD committer       | BSD since 4.3-tahoe    
Never attribute to malice what can adequately be explained by
incompetence.


------------------------------

Message: 7
Date: Thu, 02 Sep 2010 08:22:18 -0400
From: "Daniel R. Tobias" <dan at tobias.name>
Subject: Re: [LEAPSECS] h2g2
To: Leap Second Discussion List <leapsecs at leapsecond.com>
Message-ID: <4C7F96FA.3748.3D2AA16E at dan.tobias.name>
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=US-ASCII

On 2 Sep 2010 at 7:56, Ian Batten wrote:


> I'm slightly surprised that no-one has suggested adopting the Indian  

> solution (UTC+4h30m), which is ideal for political areas that are  

> about 30 degrees east to west, and switching the EU to UTC+30m (plus,



> or not, daylight saving in both cases).


Those half-hour time zones are even more confusing than the regular 
kind.  One that I could never understand is the one in Australia 
that's at a half-hour offset when the other two zones in that country 
are whole hour offsets from UTC.  It actually looks, on a map, like 
that middle zone would better reflect solar time by using the whole 
hour between the other two zones, so why did they choose the half 
hour offset?


-- 
== Dan ==
Dan's Mail Format Site: http://mailformat.dan.info/
Dan's Web Tips: http://webtips.dan.info/
Dan's Domain Site: http://domains.dan.info/




------------------------------

Message: 8
Date: Thu, 2 Sep 2010 14:43:39 +0100
From: Tony Finch <dot at dotat.at>
Subject: Re: [LEAPSECS] h2g2
To: Leap Second Discussion List <leapsecs at leapsecond.com>
Message-ID:
	<alpine.LSU.2.00.1009021430500.4600 at hermes-1.csi.cam.ac.uk>
Content-Type: TEXT/PLAIN; charset=US-ASCII

On Wed, 1 Sep 2010, Daniel R. Tobias wrote:

>

> If the time zone boundaries were drawn with any sort of logic with

> respect to keeping the times close to the natural solar time in each

> location, then France and Spain would join the UK and Portugal in

> WET, rather than the UK shifting the other way.


Timezone boundaries tend to be further west than mean solar time would
suggest, because people prefer the normal 9-5 working day to fall closer
to sunrise than to sunset. (That is also part of the reason for DST, the
other part being that it is easier to move the clock relative to sunrise
than to move people's habits relative to the clock.) This westering
pattern is quite clear in the US; as Poul-Henning says there are other
considerations in Europe which mean CET extends further East and much
further West than the natural zone boundaries.

Tony.
-- 
f.anthony.n.finch  <dot at dotat.at>  http://dotat.at/
HUMBER THAMES DOVER WIGHT PORTLAND: NORTH BACKING WEST OR NORTHWEST, 5
TO 7,
DECREASING 4 OR 5, OCCASIONALLY 6 LATER IN HUMBER AND THAMES. MODERATE
OR
ROUGH. RAIN THEN FAIR. GOOD.


------------------------------

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