[LEAPSECS] Crunching Bulletin B numbers

[Ian Batten]

>

> Given that we know approximately what the end point will be 100  

> years from now, we could even have a mechanical rule like the leap- 

> day rule that would put us in the right neighborhood of  

> synchronization.  Having a good, formulaic/mechanical method for  

> declaring leap seconds would be a vast improvement over the 'update  

> your tables every 6 months' we see today.

>

> I'd bet that the following would keep us within 10s over the next  

> 100 years:

>

> bool

> leap_second_end_of(int year, int month)

> {

> int m = (year - 2012) * 12 + month - 6;    /* First leap june 2012 */


If the idea is a low-risk, low-complexity holding action to see what  
happens, starting that with a June leap-second seems a bad idea; there  
hasn't been once since 1997, so there's probably more uncertainty  
about procedures and code than there would be for December.  Indeed,  
if you're going to have a mechanistic formula to arrive at ~6.5s/ 
decade, something like "leap Dec31 in every year that isn't divisible  
by 3" would be about the same long-term and have the merit that it  
always takes place at the same time of year when most, not all but  
most, economies are in a holiday season.

ian