[LEAPSECS] speeding up again?

[Richard B Langley]

https://www.science.org/content/article/longer-days-brought-you-el-ni-o

Also:
Investigating the Relationship Between Length of Day and El-Niño Using Wavelet Coherence Method:
https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/1345_2022_167

-- Richard Langley

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| Richard B. Langley                            E-mail: lang at unb.ca         |
| Geodetic Research Laboratory                  Web: http://gge.unb.ca      |
| Dept. of Geodesy and Geomatics Engineering    Phone:    +1 506 453-5142   |
| University of New Brunswick                                               |
| Fredericton, N.B., Canada  E3B 5A3                                        |
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________________________________________
From: LEAPSECS <leapsecs-bounces at leapsecond.com> on behalf of Tom Van Baak <tvb at LeapSecond.com>
Sent: June 15, 2023 10:48 PM
To: leapsecs at leapsecond.com
Subject: Re: [LEAPSECS] speeding up again?

✉External message: Use caution.

Steve,

> We can probably put a lot of the blame onto El Niño

That sounds plausible but I'm suspicious of quick and simple explanations.

You work at/for a university, near the coast, yes? Can you ping some of your climatology / oceanography colleagues and get data going back as far as they have it? I think it would be useful to see what the correlation coefficient actually is.

Attached is an LOD plot I made a while ago. A random web google link says "The five strongest El Niño events since 1950 were in the winters of 1957-58, 1965-66, 1972-73, 1982-83 and 1997-98". To my eyeball I just don't see that in the historical LOD plot.

/tvb

On 5/26/2023 9:09 AM, Steve Allen wrote:

On Mon 2023-05-22T16:44:30+0200 Tony Finch hath writ:


The prospect of a negative leap second is receding. The longer-term
projected length of day from Bulletin A has been increasing towards 24h
in recent months.



We can probably put a lot of the blame onto El Niño

--
Steve Allen                    <sla at ucolick.org><mailto:sla at ucolick.org>              WGS-84 (GPS)
UCO/Lick Observatory--ISB 260  Natural Sciences II, Room 165  Lat  +36.99855
1156 High Street               Voice: +1 831 459 3046         Lng -122.06015
Santa Cruz, CA 95064           https://www.ucolick.org/~sla/  Hgt +250 m