[LEAPSECS] CCTF reported to CIPM last month and it's interesting!

[Steffen Nurpmeso]

Poul-Henning Kamp wrote in
 <202512011009.5B1A9Mh8076872 at critter.freebsd.dk>:
 | https://www.bipm.org/documents/20126/280440045/11.+NMI+directors%2BMS+me\
 | eting-oct2025-CCTF+presentation-V5/b620db0a-bd29-2692-ebe9-83cf4ab7a0a2
 |
 |Optical second to page 33, leapsecond from there to p58, then lunar time.
 |
 |The proposed CGPM resolution (pg. 58) is 1h DUT1 tolerance from May \
 |20 2027.
 |
 |They hold the door open to 2028, and must decide before jan 13th
 |where the CGPM convocation goes out.  No reason given for why 2028
 |might be preferable.
 |
 |Everybody (cited) wants "as soon as possible".
 |
 |I note the uncertaintely in ER modelling:
 |
 |The summary plot on pg, 50&57 show that the probability of a negative
 |leap-second in 2029 is already more than 10%, even assuming the
 |Director uses his discretion to delay it as long as possible.
 |
 |And the "spaghetti" plot on pg. 49 shows TAI-UT1 from 36s…39s
 |already in 2030, and more than 32s…43 in 2035.
 |
 |That can be fairly and precisly be summarized as "We have NO idea what
 |goes on with Earth Rotation" :-)
 |
 |I guess we're done here ?

If only emission of TAI as a base would have been tackled earlier.
But PTP is so old.

--steffen
|
|Der Kragenbaer,                The moon bear,
|der holt sich munter           he cheerfully and one by one
|einen nach dem anderen runter  wa.ks himself off
|(By Robert Gernhardt)