[MCR] extremely large avalanche near Fernie

[Public Mountain Conditions Report]

I have just received a report of an extremely large avalanche in the Fernie area. No details yet but preliminary information indicates it ran through mature, old growth cedar--trees that are likely 200 years old--then up the other side of the valley.

We have been seeing a gradual increase in cohesion in the storm snow over the last few days while the layer below that's creating such havoc throughout western Canada remains relatively weak with poor bonds to the snow above. In my experience this is the first indication of a classic shift from high frequency but smaller storm related avalanches to a persistent avalanche problem that will produce fewer but increasingly large avalanches over an extended period of time.

This is a situation that often catches people by surprise; the reduced frequency gives the impression that things are getting better when in fact, it's just changing from the storm snow avalanche phase of a cycle to a persistent avalanche phase, which is a much more complex problem and one that's much harder to deal with in terms of risk management and decision making.

In my opinion, this event near Fernie is indicative of evolving conditions throughout the western Canadian ranges and it's probable that we'll see this kind of occurrence in all regions in the coming days.

We will provide more information if/when it becomes available. Keep an eye on the forecaster blog and south rockies blog at: http://blogs.avalanche.ca/ and the new forecasts that will come out this afternoon at: www.avalanche.ca/cac

Karl Klassen - Manager, Public Avalanche Warning Service
Canadian Avalanche Centre, kklassen at avalanche.ca<mailto:kklassen at avalanche.ca>
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