[meteorite-list] Asteroid may be set to slam Mars in Jan.

[David Pensenstadler]

My guess is that the asteroid will take out the Mars
Odyssey (THEMIS) satellite before hitting Opportunity
on the surface.

Happy Holidays to all

Dave
--- lebofsky at lpl.arizona.edu wrote:


> Hi Göran:

> 

> It is all in the timing. If I remember correctly,

> when orbits are

> calculated, the greatest uncertainty is in the time

> of perihelion passage

> (where it is in its orbit). So, while they know the

> inclination of the

> orbit (where it will be when it crosses the orbit of

> Mars), the greatest

> question is will Mars still be there (or not there

> yet). That is the

> greatest uncertainty.

> 

> With a better orbit (and better timing), the

> untertainty goes down and so

> the "target ellipse" gets smaller. When it is big,

> there is a greater

> likelihood that Mars will be in it. When the ellipse

> gets smaller, the

> likelihood is that Mars will not be in it.

> 

> Larry

> 

> On Fri, December 21, 2007 1:13 am, Göran Axelsson

> wrote:

> > "Scientists say the object currently has a 1-in-75

> chance of colliding

> > with the planet, but that probability is expected

> to go down over the next

> > month as more observations are made."

> >

> > Let me guess... it has a 74 in 75 probability to

> go down and 1 in 75

> > chance to go up?

> >

> > I'm always amused over this formulation. It always

> appears like a

> > reassuring message, "Don't worry, it will go

> away."

> >

> > "If the asteroid does smash into Mars, it'll

> likely aim near the

> > equator, ..." What? They don't know if it will

> hit, but if it hit Mars it

> > will do it near the equator. Is this a statistical

> centre of where it will

> > hit because the equator lies halfway between the

> poles.

> >

> > Okay, maybe the error in the predicted orbit is

> really small and just

> > overlaps Mars at one side of the planet....

> >

> > Anyhow, a really interesting scenario and I hope I

> will be able to see a

> > major impact on Mars with my own eyes through the

> big telescope in the

> > local observatory.

> >

> > /Göran

> >

> >

> > tracy latimer wrote:

> >> http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22350742/

> >>

> >>

> >> Watch the skies!  We may be getting (okay a LONG

> time down the road)

> >> more Martian meteorites...:)

> >>

> >> Tracy Latimer

> >>

> >>

> >>

>

_________________________________________________________________

> >> The best games are on Xbox 360.  Click here for a

> special offer on an

> >> Xbox 360 Console.

> >> http://www.xbox.com/en-US/hardware/wheretobuy/

> >> ______________________________________________

> >> http://www.meteoritecentral.com

> >> Meteorite-list mailing list

> >> Meteorite-list at meteoritecentral.com

> >>

>

http://six.pairlist.net/mailman/listinfo/meteorite-list

> >>

> >>

> >>

> >

> > ______________________________________________

> > http://www.meteoritecentral.com

> > Meteorite-list mailing list

> > Meteorite-list at meteoritecentral.com

> >

>

http://six.pairlist.net/mailman/listinfo/meteorite-list

> >

> >

> 

> 

> ______________________________________________

> http://www.meteoritecentral.com

> Meteorite-list mailing list

> Meteorite-list at meteoritecentral.com

>

http://six.pairlist.net/mailman/listinfo/meteorite-list

> 




      ____________________________________________________________________________________
Never miss a thing.  Make Yahoo your home page. 
http://www.yahoo.com/r/hs