[StBernard] Possible G.O.M. outlook, Jeff Masters' blog on Wx underground

[Westley Annis]

Gulf of Mexico and Western Caribbean development?
The four reliable computer models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis
continue to predict that a tropical storm will pop up in the Western
Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico by Thursday. The forecasted storm is expected to
move westward into Texas by Sunday. However, steering currents will be
complicated by the expected formation of an upper-level low pressure system
over the Gulf of Mexico later this week. The Yucatan Peninsula, western
Cuba, northern Gulf Coast, and Florida Gulf Coast could also be at risk.

The seed for the formation of such a storm could come from a tropical wave
in the Central Caribbean that was kicking up some heavy thunderstorm
activity yesterday. This activity has quieted down today. Another
possibility is that an old frontal zone stretching from the Carolinas
southwards along the U.S. East Coast and across northern Florida could spawn
something. I give a 40% chance a tropical storm will form in the Western
Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico this week. NHC had a hurricane hunter aircraft
on call to fly today in case something popped up, but this flight was
canceled.

Tropical wave in the mid-Atlantic
A tropical wave near 12N, 43W, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands
and the coast of Africa, is moving west at 10-15 mph. This wave has some
disorganized thunderstorm activity, and some slow development is possible
over the next 2-3 days. Wind shear is about 10 knots, and is expected to
remain below 15 knots over the next 2-3 days. The UKMET model is the only
reliable model developing this wave into a tropical depression. The
Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate this system on Wednesday, when
it should be about 500 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands.

I'll have an update Tuesday morning.
Jeff Masters