[LEAPSECS] Predictable Horizon and Uncertainty

[Finkleman, Dave]

The horizon of predictability reappears frequently in these discussions.
That it is arguable leads me to suggest that some authoritative source
distribute through IERS a reputable estimate and its uncertainty.
Statistics of past events (admittedly a small sample) appear to be 3.5
years with an uncertainty somewhere between six months and a year.  This
would at least allow a window within which one should prepare and
exercise.    

I am sure that I am repeating something that was discussed before I
became a subscriber.  

Dave Finkleman
Senior Scientist
Center for Space Standards and Innovation
Analytical Graphics, Inc.
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